Professional Documents
Culture Documents
40,200
JOLLIBEE FOODS CORPORATION, doing business under the name and style
40,000
of Jollibee, was incorporated in the Philippines and registered with the
39,800 Philippine Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on January 11, 1978.
The Parent Company and its subsidiaries (collectively referred to as “the JFC
39,600 Group”) and affiliates are involved primarily in the development, operation and
39,400 franchising of quick service restaurants (QSRs). The other activities of the JFC
Group include manufacturing and property leasing in support of the QSR
39,200 systems and other business activities.
39,000 BUSINESS SEGMENTS
38,800 Food Service. The food service segment is involved in the operations of
2019 Q1 2020 Q1 QSRs and the manufacture of food products to be sold to JFC Group-owned
and franchised QSR outlets. 93% of the company’s total revenue is derived
Figure 3. First Quarter Revenues from this segment. Currently, JFC operates the largest food service operator
in the Philippines and dominates limited-service restaurants in establishment
types. As of December 31, 2019, JFC has a total of 5,599 stores, owned and
franchised. The operated stores in the Philippines include Jollibee, Chowking,
300,000
GR Greenwich, PHO24, Red Ribbon, Mang Inasal, etc. It also operates stores in
% CA
Revenues (in Thousands)
250,000 11.5 other countries like China, Vietnam, Brunei, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc. The
stores abroad include Younghe King, Hong Zhuang Yuan, Dunkin’ Donuts,
200,000 Smashburger, etc.
Franchising. The franchising segment, which contributes 7% of the company’s
150,000
total revenue, is involved in the franchising of the JFC Group’s QSR store
100,000 concepts. Revenue from this segment includes commissary sales and other
fees from the franchised stores.
50,000 Leasing. The leasing segment leases store sites mainly to the JFC Group’s
0 independent franchisees. These leases have terms of between three (3) and
2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F
twenty (20) years, and generally include a clause to enable upward revision of
the rent charges on an annual basis based on prevailing market conditions.
Furthermore, the JFC Group also subleases certain parcels of land with lease
Figure 4. 5-year Revenue Forecast terms between five (5) to twenty (20) years. These lease contracts contain
renewal options under terms and conditions that are mutually agreed upon by
the parties.
Food service BUSINESS STRATEGIES
7% 0% Franchising
Global expansion and acquisition. During recent years, the company has
Leasing been aggressively expanding its global footprint overseas by opening Jollibee
stores abroad and acquiring foreign brands, including the recent acquisition of
lost-making US-based Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf in Indonesia. Other foreign
brands include the popular US fast-casual burger chain Smashburger that
serves fresh 100% certified Angus beef burgers with 345 stores in 2018. Despite
the increased focus on overseas markets, JFC’s momentum in its home market
continued.
Non-stop innovation. The JFC Group plans to continue to increase market
share through, among others, store network expansion supported by new
product launches, tie-ups and increasing visit frequency and targeting certain
consumer groups that are not yet part of the customer base through, among
93% others, promotions and target advertising.
Marketing Skills. The marketing strategy of Jollibee Foods Corporation stands
out from the clutter and competition. As Jollibee knows their target audience
Figure 5. 2019 Business Segment Revenue which is the traditional family, all communication materials are focused on the
Breakdown importance of family values in which this makes JFC a growing international
QSR player. In this way, JFC focuses on reaching consumers effectively and
developing an integrated marketing approach that makes use of new and
innovative tactics to reach its target consumers. It also exerts effort on ground
activities which are less expensive than commercial marketing tactics. Still,
digital marketing is still used efficiently and expertly to reach a wider audience
at a lower cost.
Serving the employees. The Company, its local subsidiaries and support units
have approximately 16,690 employees in the Philippines as at December 31,
2019. The regular daily-paid employees of Company- owned Jollibee stores are
subject to a collective bargaining agreement which was renewed and signed on
March 3, 2017. Aside from all benefits mandated by law, the Company provides
training opportunities (internal and external) to its employees. Qualified
employees are also entitled to avail of options under the Company’s Stock
Options Plan.
INVESTMENT SUMMARY
10,000 GR
8% CA We issue a BUY recommendation for Jollibee Foods Corporation’s share with
Net Income ( in Thousands)
9.3 a target price of PHP131.72 using the Discounted Free Cash Flow to the Firm
8,000
method. This represents a 14.44% upside from its closing price of PHP 115.10
6,000 on June 1, 2020. This recommendation is supported by the following:
4,000
STABLE REVENUE GROWTH AFTER RECOVERY
JFC is expected to have a recurring net income CAGR of 9.38% over the five
2,000 forecasted years, with its food service segment still contributing the most to its
net income. By the end of 2020, the food service, franchising, and leasing
0 segments are expected to produce revenues of Php 152.2B, Php 12.8B, and
2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F Php 0.4B respectively. As the main revenue driver, the food service segment
Figure 12. 5-year Net Income Forecast
will continue to grow revenues. These revenue and income growths are
expected as JFC plans to capitalize on the current situation by focusing on
Food service Franchising Leasing
deliveries and take-out services and setting up more stores. Income growth is
also supported by JFC’s plans to close down non-performing stores and to build
8% 0%
“cloud kitchens” to reduce rental costs.
EXPANSIONS
JFC has set its eyes on becoming one of the top 5 restaurants in the world. It
has already entered international markets in several countries, with China and
the United States being the top international markets outside the Philippines.
The company plans to equalize the revenue share of its Philippines and foreign
businesses. JFC adopts two main strategies in its global expansion plan of its
Jollibee business: (1) Bringing it to markets with a vast population of Filipinos
and (2) Finding markets with huge potential for Jollibee to become a major, if
not the largest, quick service restaurant even without a big Filipino base.
However, the pandemic has affected its original plan of building 600 stores
worldwide, as they trimmed the number down to 171 stores instead.
92% ADAPTING TO THE “NEW NORMAL”
As the pandemic and quarantine regulations have reduced the number of
people going out of their homes, many consumers have turned to online food
Figure 13. 2020 Segment Revenue Forecast delivery services. Users of food delivery services are anticipated to jump by 34%
from 5.58M to 7.49M on a restaurant-to-consumer basis. Though this will not
offset the loss on sales from its brick-and-mortar stores, JFC has set aside part
(in
2017 2018 2019 of its 2020 capital expenditures on digital commerce and technology to
thousands)
maximize its food delivery services. This is under the assumption that the world
will not revert quickly to its normal way of life even after lockdowns have been
Total Sales 124,663,548 150,200,826 166,909,364
eased.
Foreign STURDY BRAND IMAGE
28,393,359 40,717,384 49,334,270
Sales
Since its establishment at the end of the 1970s, Jollibee Foods Corporation has
grown spectacularly. Jollibee, in particular, is the leading fast food chain in the
Percentage 22.78% 27.11% 29.56% Philippines. Through delivering great-tasting food, adherence to world class
operating standards and the universal appeal of the family values the brand
represents, Jollibee was able to establish a solid brand identity and build
Table 2. Revenue Shares of PH and Foreign
customer loyalty. Today, the company is seen as a reliable and trustworthy
Business
brand, and their prominence in the face of the Philippines’ Quick Service
Industry (QSR) is easily noticeable by any Filipino.
14
VALUATION
12 We used the Discounted Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) valuation to arrive
at a target price of PHP131.72 per share, with an upside of 14.44% from JFC’s
10
closing price of PHP115.10 on June 1, 2020. Since JFC is a leveraged company
8 with a changing capital structure, the FCFF method was used as this would
6 reflect the fundamentals more clearly than the FCFE method.
In applying the DCF analysis, JFC’s business segments were valued
4
individually before being consolidated into the network share price. The main
2 contributor of the company value is its food service segment, with revenues
0 driven by its numerous subsidiaries located in different parts of the world and
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 JFC’s continued plan for a global restructure in 2020 despite an expected
decrease in earnings.
Using a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.35% and a 3.07%
Restaurant-to-Consumer Delivery terminal growth rate, the values of JFC’s business segments were combined to
Platform-to-Consumery Delivery arrive at a share price of PHP131.72 per JFC share.
REVENUES
Figure 14. Online Food Delivery Users
We forecasted JFC Group’s revenues for each of its segments and arrived with
300,000,000.00
an overall five-year CAGR of 11.5%. This is primarily attributable to the food
R service segment, which accounted for 93% of the company’s total revenues in
250,000,000.00 CAG
0.09% 2019. Meanwhile, the franchising segment and the leasing segment accounted
1
200,000,000.00 for the remaining 7%.
Food service segment. The food service segment is the primary source of
150,000,000.00 JFC’s revenues. The five-year revenue CAGR for this segment is expected to
be 10.20%, relatively lower from its historical revenue CAGR of 13.10%. This is
100,000,000.00 due to the coronavirus crisis forcing all consumers to adopt new habits
surrounding dining at restaurants and eating in general, which might have long-
50,000,000.00
lasting impacts even once the current threat has eased.
0.00 Franchising segment. Fast food brands depend heavily on volume and
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
transaction count. However, since the pandemic, takeout and delivery are now
expected to be the new paradigm, which makes it less appealing for business
Food service Franchising Leasing venturers to enter into franchising agreements. For this reason, the revenue
CAGR from this segment is expected to decrease to 9% from its historical CAGR
of 19.30%.
Figure 15. Total Revenues
Leasing segment. Even before the breakout of coronavirus, leasing has been
Weight considered as stagnant and conservative. Hence, revenues from this segment
are anticipated to grow at a steady rate, with a forecasted revenue CAGR of
Debt 44,776,043.00 45.32%
8.20%.
Equity 54,028,402.00 56.66%
EXPENSES
Total 98,804,445.00 100%
All expenses are forecasted as a percentage of revenues except for advertising
and promotions expenses. As the company is able to deliver products or
Table 3. Weighted Average Cost of Capital services to its customers in the most cost-effective manner possible without
sacrificing quality, all costs and expenses are expected to rise at a steady rate.
TERMINAL GROWTH
Our terminal growth rate of 3.07%, which is the sum of the expected 2020 inflation rate of 1.72% and population growth rate of 1.35%,
is applied in the valuation. This is justified based on the assumption that, even with the COVID-19 pandemic, JFC will continue to
grow in the future.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL
The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the average rate a company expects to pay to finance its assets and is used to
discount the free cash flow to the firm. To compute the WACC, the cost of debt and cost of equity were first obtained, then multiplied
to their corresponding weights. The cost of debt was based on JFC’s 2019 aggregate interest expense divided by the aggregate short
term and long term debt, arriving with a debt over equity weight of 45.32% and a cost of debt of 4.98% (Table 3). To calculate the
cost of equity, we used the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The beta we applied in the computation came from Reuters’s
suggested JFC beta of 1.45, dated June 01, 2020. The risk free rate we used was based on a 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
Rate which translates the yield into a Philippine Risk Free Rate.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
In conducting the sensitivity analysis for JFC’s share price, the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and terminal growth rate
were used as variable components. The company’s WACC at 10.35% and terminal growth rate at 3.07% will yield a share price of
PHP131.72. From this, both increases and decreases in the components were incorporated to illustrate the impact of its
movements.
WACC
11.85% 11.55% 11.25% 10.95% 10.65% 10.35% 10.05% 9.75% 9.45% 9.15% 8.85%
1.57% 91.11 94.43 97.96 101.72 105.73 109.95 114.61 119.54 124.85 130.58 136.79
1.87% 93.73 97.24 100.97 104.95 109.20 113.70 118.66 123.93 129.62 135.78 142.48
TERMINAL GROWTH
2.17% 96.52 100.23 104.18 108.40 112.92 117.71 123.01 128.66 134.78 141.43 148.68
2.47% 99.49 103.41 107.60 112.10 116.92 122.04 127.72 133.79 140.39 147.58 155.46
2.77% 102.66 106.82 111.27 116.06 121.22 126.70 132.81 139.36 146.50 154.32 162.91
3.07% 106.01 110.44 115.19 120.30 125.82 131.72 138.30 145.38 153.14 161.66 171.07
3.37% 109.66 114.37 119.45 124.94 130.88 137.24 144.36 152.07 160.53 169.88 180.25
3.67% 113.54 118.59 124.03 129.92 136.33 143.21 150.96 159.36 168.64 178.94 190.43
3.97% 117.73 123.13 128.98 135.34 142.27 149.75 158.20 167.41 177.63 189.04 201.86
3.19% 107.46 111.99 116.87 122.13 127.82 133.89 140.69 148.01 156.04 164.88 174.66
4.57% 127.12 133.39 140.22 147.70 155.92 164.86 175.06 186.31 198.94 213.23 229.53
PRICE MULTIPLES
While the DCF method was the main valuation approach of this paper, we also analyzed the trailing price relatives of JFC’s
comparable firms in the Food and Service Industry in the Philippines. The size of market capitalization and industry similarities were
taken into consideration in selecting the peers. JFC has consistently shown a higher Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio among its peers,
as also seen with its current 41.4x P/E. This is a clear indicator of better overall performance compared to its peers. We also analyzed
the comparison of JFC’s EV/EBITDA among its peers, which is appropriate in analyzing the value of a CAPEX intensive business.
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
2017 (As 2018 (As
Restated- Restated-
Note 2) Note 2) 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F
PROFITABILITY RATIO
Operating Income
to Revenues 12.93% 12.09% 12.73% 14.80% 13.11% 13.55% 13.82% 13.49%
Net Income to
Revenues 4.86% 4.74% 3.58% 3.57% 4.18% 3.45% 3.29% 3.24%
Gross Profit
Margin 18.73% 17.84% 16.35% 17.64% 17.28% 17.09% 17.33% 17.23%
EBITDA Margin 14.07% 15.40% 14.55% 13.59% 14.83% 13.87% 13.47% 13.50%
Return on Equity 15.54% 15.60% 11.89% 9.97% 12.06% 10.65% 10.82% 11.49%
Return on Assets 5.62% 5.08% 3.43% 3.57% 4.33% 3.91% 4.29% 4.72%
Revenue Growth 20.65% 11.45% -7.90% 11.76% 14.68% 15.54% 16.35%
Revenue Growth
(Food Service) 18.47% 7.72% -9.00% 12.00% 15.00% 16.00% 17.00%
Revenue Growth
(Franchising) 21.23% 17.37% 7.00% 9.00% 11.00% 10.00% 8.00%
Revenue Growth
(Leasing) 7.31% -14.13% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 9.00% 8.00%
Net Income
Growth 17.69% -15.95% -8.06% 31.01% -5.33% 9.93% 14.83%
LIQUIDITY RATIOS
Current Ratio 1.20 1.07 0.67 1.01 0.96 0.92 1.01 1.01
Quick Ratio 0.98 0.85 0.53 0.83 0.78 0.75 0.83 0.84
Cash Ratio 0.68 0.59 0.31 0.55 0.52 0.50 0.57 0.58
DEBT RATIOS
Debt Ratio 63.86% 67.45% 72.08% 64.17% 64.13% 63.30% 60.33% 0.59
Debt to Equity 1.77 2.07 2.50 1.79 1.79 1.72 1.52 1.44
Asset to Equity 2.77 3.07 3.47 2.79 2.79 2.72 2.52 2.44
EBITDA to Interest
Expense 7.17 6.82 7.03 7.71 3.08 2.87 2.72 6.78
Debt to EBITDA 3.93 4.09 5.16 4.72 7.94 8.16 7.09 3.00
Interest Coverage
Ratio 5.50 4.94 3.98 4.05 4.51 3.90 3.77 3.73
TURNOVER RATIOS
Total Asset
Turnover 1.16 1.07 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.13 1.31 1.45
Fixed Asset
Turnover 0.18 0.34 0.39 0.44 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.31
Earnings per Share 6.423 7.555 5.887 5.649 7.329 6.834 7.558 8.623
Dividends per
Share 0.0020031 0.0023431 1.9328115 0.0017961 0.0023457 0.0022106 0.0024223 0.00
than the historical CAGR for the past three years of 10.38%. Although JFC has
250,000 reported that they already incurred losses in the first three months of the year
2020 and are expecting more in the next quarters due to the pandemic that
200,000 brought lockdown in many parts of the world, their revenues are still expected to
grow at a steady rate.
150,000 Meanwhile, the company’s segments of food service and leasing have historical
CAGR of 10.20% and -5.66% which are expected to increase to 11.82% and
100,000 9%, respectively. This is attributable to the reopening of temporarily closed
stores, the continued expansion of stores, and the increase in rent charges. On
50,000 the other hand, the CAGR for the franchising segment is expected to decrease
from 13.96% to 7.53%. The strong loss incurred in 2020 and slow recovery are
0 most likely the reasons for the fall of growth rates.
2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F STABLE MARGINS (Figure xxx)
Food service Franchising Leasing In 2019, JFC had a gross profit margin of 16.35% and an operating margin of
12.73%. The gross profit margin is anticipated to increase at a stable rate, with
expectations of 17.64% and 17.28% in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Meanwhile,
Figure 16. Revenue CAGR per Subsidiary the operating margin is also expected to increase to 14.80% in 2020 and 13.11%
in 2021.
20% HEALTH INCOME GENERATION INDICATED BY RETURN ON EQUITY
18% In comparison with 2019’s 12%, the JFC Group’s Return on Equity (ROE) is
16% expected to fall to 10% in 2020. This is mainly due to the impact of the COVID-
14%
19 pandemic which led to the temporary closure of a high number of stores in
the Philippines and markets abroad. In 2021, as the world starts to recover and
12% the temporarily closed stores reopen, the ROE will increase to 12%. However
10% from there on, the ROE will decrease to 10.65% in 2022, but will then again
8% increase to 10.82% and 11.49% in 2023 and 2024, respectively. This is
attributable to the company’s plans to continue expanding its brands both
6% locally and internationally.
4%
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES
2%
The Capital expenditures (CAPEX) in the forecasted period will be driven by
0%
JFC’s store expansions and restructure plans. The calculated 45.34% decrease
2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F
from 2019A to 2020F were based on JFC's disclosure regarding the operational
Gross Profit Margin Operating Margin constraints brought by the COVID-19. We expect growth capex to ramp up by
2021 onwards as the company prepares for its store expansion plans in the
coming years. We forecasted a total of 488 stores opening by 2021 based on
Figure 17. Margins the average stores JFC opened in a year from 2017 until 2019, disregarding the
values for 2020 as to avoid large variances.
INVESTMENT RISKS
FINANCIAL RISK
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Opening of New Stores
JFC has slashed its 2020 capital expenditures budget to 5 billion pesos from
Total 4,972 5,474 5,971 6,142 6,630 7,126 7,620 8,113 14 billion pesos due to the pandemic, but still it will continue to open new stores
on a very selective basis. It expects to open a worldwide total of 171 company-
owned new stores and renovate 96 existing stores in 2020. In order to mitigate
FTY 465 502 497 171 488 496 494 493 possible losses, the company will be preparing for changes that involve the
rationalization of its non-performing stores, store network, supply chain
Table 4. Number of Stores Forecast facilities and management and support group structure. It will also include
building drivers of revenue growth for the future including food delivery, take
out, and drive-thru.
OPERATIONAL RISK
Spike in Delivery Business
Lockdown measures have forced Jollibee to temporarily prohibit dine-in accommodations in the Philippines and U.S., hurting sales
even as the company reported a spike in its delivery business. 2020 will be an extremely challenging year for JFC as they may not
be able to accommodate all orders and deliveries especially when consumers’ demand their products at the same time. In line with
this, JFC will improve its online order and payment systems as well as its delivery service. Also, the company reported that they will
continue to open new stores in prime locations to reach a wider audience.
MARKET RISK
Slowdown in Consumption
Given the lockdown measures and the still growing number of COVID-19 cases, we acknowledged the slowdown that JFC will
continually face throughout 2020 and possibly the years coming. We also acknowledge the potential slowdown that inflation risk
might bring in the prices. Despite that, we believe that JFC can mitigate this due to its good consumer resilience and overall good
domestic results.
EXCHANGE RATE RISK
The JFC Group is exposed to foreign currency risk due to the Parent Company’s investments outside the Philippines, which are
mainly in PRC and USA. The company also has transactional foreign currency exposures, arising from its operations’ cash and cash
equivalents, receivables and trade payables in foreign currencies. Should the Philippine peso depreciate at significant levels relative
to the aforementioned, the company would be put at risk.
APPENDIX 1: COMPREHENSIVE STATEMENT OF INCOME
APPENDIX 2: COMPREHENSIVE STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION
APPENDIX 3: SEGMENTED COMPREHENSIVE STATEMENT OF INCOME
APPENDIX 4: STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS
APPENDIX 5: FINANCIAL RATIOS
LIQUIDITY RATIOS
Current Ratio 1.20 1.07 0.67 1.01 0.96 0.92 1.01 1.01
Quick Ratio 0.98 0.85 0.53 0.83 0.78 0.75 0.83 0.84
Cash Ratio 0.68 0.59 0.31 0.55 0.52 0.50 0.57 0.58
DEBT RATIOS
Debt Ratio 63.86% 67.45% 72.08% 64.17% 64.13% 63.30% 60.33% 0.59
Debt to Equity 1.77 2.07 2.50 1.79 1.79 1.72 1.52 1.44
Asset to Equity 2.77 3.07 3.47 2.79 2.79 2.72 2.52 2.44
EBITDA to Interest
Expense 7.17 6.82 7.03 7.71 3.08 2.87 2.72 6.78
Debt to EBITDA 3.93 4.09 5.16 4.72 7.94 8.16 7.09 3.00
Interest Coverage
Ratio 5.50 4.94 3.98 4.05 4.51 3.90 3.77 3.73
TURNOVER RATIOS
Total Asset
Turnover 1.16 1.07 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.13 1.31 1.45
Fixed Asset
Turnover 0.18 0.34 0.39 0.44 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.31
Earnings per Share 6.423 7.555 5.887 5.649 7.329 6.834 7.558 8.623
Dividends per
Share 0.0020031 0.0023431 1.9328115 0.0017961 0.0023457 0.0022106 0.0024223 0.00
APPENDIX 6: DCF ANALYSIS
CORPORATE
2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F
NOPAT 5,905,530.27 7,736,920.87 7,324,535.63 8,051,976.70 9,245,690.00
Depreciation &
12,418,678.23 13,874,214.50 15,910,925.67 18,386,537.00 21,391,510.41
Amortization
Net Working
(2,664,955.67) 540,610.11 532,871.81 (535,451.25) 179,343.56
Capital
Capital
(5,489,129.67) (13,172,740.74) (14,490,014.81) (16,191,064.10) (17,546,061.56)
Expenditure
Free Cash Flow 10,170,123.17 8,979,004.75 9,278,318.31 9,711,998.35 13,270,482.42
Terminal Value 187,720,326.23
Cash Flows 10,170,123.17 8,979,004.75 9,278,318.31 9,711,998.35 200,990,808.65
WACC 10.354153%
Terminal Growth 3.067984%
FOOD SERVICE
2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F
NOPAT 5,432,109.04 7,132,183.06 6,770,601.93 7,472,430.84 8,627,995.55
Depreciation &
Amortization 12,379,937.63 13,832,474.40 15,865,133.40 18,336,804.46 21,338,089.61
Net Working
Capital (2,451,317.51) 498,354.62 492,572.24 (496,911.82) 167,361.81
Capital
Expenditure (12,705,756.01) (13,172,740.74) (14,490,014.81) (16,191,064.10) (17,546,061.56)
Free Cash Flow 2,654,973.15 8,290,271.35 8,638,292.75 9,121,259.38 12,587,385.41
Terminal Value 187,720,326.23
Cash Flows 2,654,973.15 8,290,271.35 8,638,292.75 9,121,259.38 200,307,711.64
WACC 10.35%
Terminal
Growth 3.07%
LEASING
2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F
NOPAT 16,998.73 21,521.68 19,542.30 20,266.51 21,600.55
Depreciation &
Amortization 38,740.60 41,740.10 45,792.27 49,732.54 53,420.80
Net Working
Capital (7,670.92) 1,503.81 1,421.73 (1,347.71) 419.00
Capital
Expenditure 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Free Cash Flow 48,068.41 64,765.59 66,756.31 68,651.34 75,440.35
Terminal Value 0.00
Cash Flows 48,068.41 64,765.59 66,756.31 68,651.34 75,440.35
WACC 10.35%
Terminal
Growth 3.07%
EQUITY VALUE
SUM PV of FCFE 43,916,727.27
PV of Terminal Value 132,038,364.90
Value of the Firm 175,955,092.18
Value of Debt 30,052,555.67
Value to Equity 145,902,536.51
Outstanding Shares 1,107,698.27
Value per share 131.72
UPSIDE POTENTIAL
Last Price 115.10
Value per Share 131.72
Return Potential 14.44%
Recommendation BUY
APPENDIX 8: ENTERPRISE VALUE FORECAST
EV/EBITDA
JFC 2020F EBITDA 22,478,248,875.99
PEER MEAN EV/EBITDA 6.98
Relative Enterprise Value 156,839,921,890.68
Cash & Cash Equivalents 26,087,158,380.39
Preferred Equity
Debt (30,052,555,666.67)
Market Capitalization 152,874,524,604.41
No. of outstanding shares 1,107,698,270.00
Target price 138.01
APPENDIX 9: COMPARATIVE VALUATION MULTIPLES
Company Ticker Symbol Mark. Cap. P/E P/BV P/S EV/EBITDA EV/Rev
Jollibee Foods Corporation JFC 127,496,070,877.00 41.14 1.57 0.7068 5.85 0.7946
Alliance Global Group Inc. AGI 59,196,622,031.37 3.74 0.33 0.3470 7.15 1.8673
Max's Group, Inc. MAXS 5,756,971,843.20 6.04 1.01 0.3998 5.47 0.8233
Shakey's Pizza Asia PIZZA 9,295,118,791.71 10.93 1.83 1.1282 7.17 1.7784
Ventures, Inc.
Century Pacific Food Inc. CNPF 54,125,711,331.60 15.75 2.65 1.2453 9.25 1.3260
FOOD SERVICE
Expansion of
Growth in
Economic Food service Increase in Food
consumer
downturns market (quick Service Revenue
spending
casual growth)
FRANCHISING
Clear market
Increase in
Establishment of position (longer Increase of
Franchising
brand names market workforce
Revenue
presence)
LEASING
Increase in
Clear leasing Increase in
demand in
arrangements Leasing Revenue
specific place
Overall economic downturns and increase in stores will help food service grow.
When the whole economy is in downturn, income is diminished and so is consumer spending. However, research has
proved that quick service restaurants are less likely to be affected since its business model is patterned in a more affordable
and convenient pricing, attracting the market even. With that, sales will tend to increase since consumers opt to use relatively
inexpensive dining options. This could also drive QSR enterprises to expand their market presence on high streets to
capitalize on the new market custom. The opening of new stores is also a given revenue driver for JFC as it would result in
an increase of foot traffic. This would eventually result in an increase in operations.
Established brand image can push the franchise business to grow further.
Owning the property and licensing the brand through royalties and fees has been growing more popular and convenient for
big Quick Service Restaurants, with some enterprises even generating more revenue from it. Having an established brand
name in the industry attracts investors easily, which is why JFC was able to quickly operate in a franchise structure as well.
If JFC’s brand were to continuously grow, they would be able to gain higher market positions and new investors, leading to
an increase in their revenue from royalty fees and set-up fees.
Clear leasing agreements steps up the demand.
As JFC makes contracts with independent franchisees, they will be able to profit off of a leasing structure. Having clear
leasing agreements can drive the individual franchisees to commit rental deals with JFC instead. If the agreements were
consistently set clear, potential increase in the demand for their places could also take place, increasing the revenue in the
process.
APPENDIX 11: JOLLIBEE FOODS CORPORATION WORLDWIDE PRESENCE
ASIA EUROPE
Philippines United Arab Emirates Italy
Taiwan Malaysia United Kingdom
Brunei Hong Kong NORTH AMERICA
Indonesia Vietnam United States
Kuwait China Canada
Saudi Arabia Qatar
Bahrain Singapore
Oman Macau
APPENDIX 12: SCHEDULE OF DEBT PAYMENTS
SHORT-TERM DEBT
Short-term debt consists of USD-denominated bank loans as at December 31, 2019.
Availment Date Maturity Date Interest Rate Conditions Amount
Loan 1 September 23, September 23, LIBOR plus Unsecured 2,532,000.00
2019 2020 spread; quarterly
Loan 2 September 20, September 20, LIBOR plus Unsecured 4,557,600.00
2019 2020 spread; quarterly
Loan 3 September 20, September 20, LIBOR plus Unsecured 4,557,600.00
2019 2020 spread; quarterly
Loan 4 September 20, September 7, LIBOR plus Unsecured 2,532,000.00
2019 2020 spread; quarterly
Loan 5 September 13, September 7, LIBOR plus Unsecured 6,076,800.00
2019 2020 spread; quarterly
Loan 6 March 22, 2019 March 23, 2020 LIBOR plus Unsecured 1,012,800.00
spread; quarterly
Loan 7 August 14, 2019 - August 14, 2020 LIBOR plus Unsecured 911,520.00
December 30, spread; quarterly
2019
22,180,320.00
LONG-TERM DEBT
The long-term debt consists of the following:
2019 2018
Principal 22,682,946.00 26,363,627.00
Unamortized (87,223.00) (99,274.00)
debt issue cost
22,595,723.00 26,264,353.00
JFC Group
Chowking
Greenwich
PHO24
Red Ribbon
Mang Inasal
Burger King
Yonghe King
Hong Zhuang Yuan
Dunkin’ Donuts
SuperFoods
Highlands Coffee
Hard Rock Café
Smashburger
The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf
Freemont Foods Corporation
Grandworth Resource Corporation
APPENDIX 14: CORPORATE EXECUTIVES & BOARD OF DIRECTORS
NAME TITLE
Tony Tan Caktiong Chairman
Ernesto Tanmantiong President, CEO & Executive Director
CFO, Compliance Officer & VP-Corporate
Ysmael Villoso Baysa
Finance
Vice President & Head-Research &
Chuan Hua Yang
Development
Ignacio Salvador Gimenez Managing Director-Jollibee Franchise
Anastacia S. Masancay Vice President-Special Projects
Susana K. Tanmantiong Chief Procurement Officer
Fernando S. Yu Chief Business Support Officer
William Tan Untiong Secretary & Executive Director
Cho Sit Ang Non-Executive Director
Poe Eng Chua Non-Executive Director
Artemio Villaseñor Panganiban Non-Executive Director
Joseph C. Tanbuntiong Treasurer & Executive Director
Daniel Rafael Ramon Z. Gomez Chief Marketing Officer
Yixing Frank Sheng Head-Internal Audit
Marilou N. Sibayan Vice President & Comptroller-Worldwide
Lorna D. Atun Assistant Vice President-Corporate Audit
Cossette B. Palomar Director-Investor Relations
Arsenio M. Sabado Chief Human Resources Officer
Valerie Feria Amante Vice President & Head-Corporate Legal
Monico V. Jacob Lead Independent Director
Cezar Peralta Consing Independent Director
APPENDIX 15: TOP 20 SHAREHOLDERS AS OF JUNE 20, 2020