Prediction vs.

Forecasting/ Fuzzy Vs Probability

Fuzzy: When we say about certainty of a thing

Example: A patient comes to the doctor and he has to diagnose so that

medicine can be prescribed.

Probability: When we say about the chance of an event to occur

Properties of a fuzzy set: α-level sets

1. The α-level sets ( or α-cuts):

◮ The α-level set (where α ∈ [0, 1]) of the fuzzy set à having
the membership function µÃ (x ) is the crisp set Aα for which
µÃ (x ) ≥ α
◮ We can define strong α cut as the crisp set A′α for which
µÃ (x ) > α
◮ In the example with the comfortable house, WHERE
à = {(1, 0.1), (2, 0.5), (3, 0.8), (4, 1.0), (5, 0.7), (6, 0.2)}, the
α-cuts of the fuzzy set à are:
◮ A0.1 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} = suppà (the support of Ã)
◮ A0.2 = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
◮ A0.5 = {2, 3, 4, 5}

◮ A0.7 = {3, 4, 5}
◮ A0.8 = {3, 4}

◮ A1.0 = {4} = coreÃ

Definition 1: Let X be some set of objects, with elements noted as
x. Thus, X = {x}.
Definition 2: A fuzzy set A in X is characterized by a membership
function mA(x) which maps each point in X onto the real interval [0.0,
1.0]. As mA(x) approaches 1.0, the "grade of membership" of x in A
increases.
Definition 3: A is EMPTY iff for all x, µA(x) = 0.0.
Definition 4: A = B iff for all x: µA(x) = µB(x) [or, µA = µB].
Definition 5: µA' = 1 - µA.
Definition 6: A is CONTAINED in B iff µA <= µB.
Definition 7: C = A UNION B, where: µC(x) = MAX(µA(x), µB(x)).
Definition 8: C = A INTERSECTION B where: µC(x) = MIN(µA(x), µB(x)).
Operations for fuzzy sets: union, intersection, complement
◮ Given two fuzzy sets à = {(x , µÃ (x ))|x ∈ X } and
B̃ = {(x , µB̃ (x ))|x ∈ X } over the same universe of discourse
X , we can define operations of union, intersection and
complement. We define:
◮ the union of the fuzzy sets à si B̃ as the fuzzy set C̃ = à ∪ B̃,
given by C̃ = {(x , µC̃ (x ))|x ∈ X }, where
µC̃ (x ) = max(µÃ (x ), µB̃ (x ))
◮ the intersection of the fuzzy sets à and B̃ as the fuzzy set
D̃ = Ã ∩ B̃, given by D̃ = {(x , µD̃ (x ))|x ∈ X }, where
µD̃ (x ) = min(µÃ (x ), µB̃ (x ))

◮ the complement of à in X as the fuzzy set Ẽ = Cà X given by

Ẽ = {(x , µẼ (x ))|x ∈ X }, where
µẼ (x ) = 1 − µÃ (x )
Operations with fuzzy sets: inclusion, equality

◮ inclusion of fuzzy sets: given two fuzzy sets à and B̃ included

in X , the inclusion à ⊆ B̃ takes place iff µÃ (x ) ≤ µB̃ (x ),
(∀)x ∈ X
◮ equality of two fuzzy sets: two fuzzy sets à and B̃ included in
X are equals iff µÃ (x ) = µB̃ (x ), (∀)x ∈ X
◮ Equivalently, two fuzzy sets à and B̃ included in X are equals
iff à ⊆ B̃ and B̃ ⊆ Ã
Operations with fuzzy sets: examples

1. Determine the union and intersection of the fuzzy sets à =

“comfortable house for a 4 persons - family” and B̃ = “small
house”, where
à = {(1, 0.1), (2, 0.5), (3, 0.8), (4, 1.0), (5, 0.7), (6, 0.2)} and
B̃ = {(1, 1), (2, 0.8), (3, 0.4), (4, 0.1)}:
Ã∪B̃ = {(1, max(0.1, 1)), (2, max(0.5, 0.8)), (3, max(0.8, 0.4)),
(4, max(1, 0.1)), (5, max(0.7, 0)), (6, max(0.2, 0)} =
{(1, 1), (2, 0.8), (3, 0.8), (4, 1), (5, 0.7), (6, 0.2)}
à ∩ B̃ = {(1, min(0.1, 1)), (2, min(0.5, 0.8)), (3, min(0.8, 0.4)),
(4, min(1, 0.1)), (5, min(0.7, 0)), (6, min(0.2, 0)} =
{(1, 0.1), (2, 0.5), (3, 0.4), (4, 0.1), (5, 0), (6, 0)}
à ∪ B̃ can be read as “comfortable house for a 4 persons -
family or small”, and à ∩ B̃ as “comfortable house for a 4
persons - family and small”
Operations with fuzzy sets: examples (continued)

2. Determine CÃ X , where X = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}:

(“non-comfortable house for a 4 persons - family”)
CÃ X = {(1, 1 − 0.1), (2, 1 − 0.5), (3, 1 − 0.8), (4, 1 − 1), (5, 1 −
0.7), (6, 1 − 0.2), (7, 1 − 0), (8, 1 − 0), (9, 1 − 0), (10, 1 − 0)} =
{(1, 0.9), (2, 0.5), (3, 0.2), (4, 0), (5, 0.3), (6, 0.8), (7, 1), (8, 1),
(9, 1), (10, 1)}
3. Determine the union and intersection of the fuzzy sets à =
“real numbers close to 10” and B̃ = “real number
considerably larger than 11”.
◮ Analytically: C̃ = Ã ∪ B̃ si D̃ = Ã ∩ B̃, where
µC̃ (x ) = max{µÃ (x ), µB̃ (x )},
µD̃ (x ) = min{µÃ (x ), µB̃ (x )}
...
◮ Graphically: (more suited in this case)
A = {(x1, 0.5), (x2, 0.1), (x3, 0.4)} and
B = {(x1, 0.2), (x2, 0.3), (x3, 0.5)};
C = A ∪ B = {(x1, 0.5), (x2, 0.3), (x3, 0.5)}

µA µA
µB µB
A = {(x1, 0.5), (x2, 0.1), (x3, 0.4)} and
B = {(x1, 0.2), (x2, 0.3), (x3, 0.5)};
C = A ∩ B = {(x1, 0.2), (x2, 0.1), (x3, 0.4)}

µA
µB
A = {(x1, 0.5), (x2, 0.1), (x3, 0.4)}
C = AC = {(x1, 0.5), (x2, 0.9), (x3, 0.6)}

µA µA µA’
Example of operations with fuzzy sets: union
1 1
1/(1+(x-10)**2) fA(x)
funcB(x)
0.9 max(fA(x), funcB(x))
0.9

0.8 0.8

0.7 0.7

0.6
0.6

0.5
0.5

0.4
0.4

0.3
0.3

0.2
0.2

0.1
0.1

˜ ˜ ˜ ˜
0 020

Figure 3: A˜ with µÃ (x )

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

1
max(fA(x), funcB(x))
1
funcB(x)
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0

˜ ˜
0 0 5 10 15 20
0 5 10 15 20

Figure 4: B̃ with µB̃ (x ) Figure 6: A ∪ B

Example of operations with fuzzy sets: intersection
1 1
1/(1+(x-10)**2) fA(x)
funcB(x)
0.9 min(fA(x), funcB(x))
0.9

0.8 0.8

0.7 0.7

0.6 0.6

0.5
0.5

0.4
0.4

0.3
0.3

0.2
0.2

0.1
0.1

˜ B˜ and A˜ ∩ ˜B
0 0 5 10 15 20
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

Figure 7: µÃ (x ) Figure 9: A,

0.3
min(fA(x), funcB(x))
1
funcB(x)

0.9
0.25

0.8

0.7 0.2

0.6
0.15
0.5

0.4
0.1

0.3

0.2 0.05

0.1
0

˜ ˜
0 0 5 10 15 20
0 5 10 15 20
Algebric product or Vector product (A•B):

µA•B(x ) = µA(x ) • µB(x )

Scalar product (α × A):

µαA(x ) = α · µA(x )

Sum (A + B):
µA+B(x ) = µA(x ) + µB(x ) − µA(x ) · µB(x )

Difference (A − B = A ∩ BC ):

µA−B(x ) = µA∩BC (x )

Disjunctive sum: A ⊕ B = (AC ∩ B) ∪ (A ∩ BC ))

Bounded Sum: | A(x) ⊕ B(x) |

µ|A(x )⊕B(x )| = min{1, µA(x ) + µB(x )}

Bounded Difference: | A(x) B(x) |

µ|A(x ) B(x )| = max{0, µA(x ) + µB(x ) − 1}

Equality (A = B):
µ A(x ) = µ B ( x )

Power of a fuzzy set Aα:

µAα (x ) = {µA(x )}α

If α < 1, then it is called dilation

If α > 1, then it is called concentration