This file presents data that supplement CBO’s September 2020 report An Update to the Budget and Economic

Outlo
www.cbo.gov/publication/56517

Contents
1. Revenues Projected in CBO's September 2020 Baseline
2. Changes in CBO’s Baseline Revenue Projections Since March 2020
3. Detailed Individual Income Tax Projections in CBO's September 2020 Baseline
4. Payroll Tax Revenues Projected in CBO's September 2020 Baseline, by Source
5. Excise Tax Revenues Projected in CBO's September 2020 Baseline, by Source
ook: 2020 to 2030.
This file presents data that supplement CBO’s September 2020 report An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlo
www.cbo.gov/publication/56517

1. Revenues Projected in CBO's September 2020 Baseline

Billions of Dollars

Actual,
Fiscal Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Individual Income Taxes 1,718 1,533 1,571 1,821 1,913 1,982
Payroll Taxes 1,243 1,313 1,246 1,335 1,412 1,463
Corporate Income Taxes 230 151 123 234 289 319
Other
Excise taxes 99 90 81 88 88 91
Federal Reserve 53 83 109 129 138 144
Customs duties 71 71 73 80 85 89
Estate and gift taxes 17 18 20 19 20 21
Miscellaneous fees and fines 32 36 34 33 35 37
Subtotal 271
_____ 298
_____ 316
_____ 349
_____ 366
_____ 382
_____
Total 3,463 3,296 3,256 3,739 3,980 4,146
On-budget 2,548 2,330 2,358 2,809 2,983 3,105
Off-budgetᵃ 914 965 898 930 997 1,040

Memorandum:
Gross Domestic Product 21,220 20,649 20,997 22,077 22,975 23,956

As a Percentage of Gross D
Individual Income Taxes 8.1 7.4 7.5 8.2 8.3 8.3
Payroll Taxes 5.9 6.4 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.1
Corporate Income Taxes 1.1 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.3
Other
Excise taxes 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Federal Reserve 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
Customs duties 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
Estate and gift taxes 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Miscellaneous fees and fines 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Subtotal 1.3
_____ 1.4
_____ 1.5
_____ 1.6
_____ 1.6
_____ 1.6
_____
Total 16.3 16.0 15.5 16.9 17.3 17.3
On-budget 12.0 11.3 11.2 12.7 13.0 13.0
Off-budgetᵃ 4.3 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

a. Receipts from Social Security payroll taxes.

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Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030.

Total
2021- 2021-
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2025 2030
2,089 2,334 2,569 2,677 2,792 2,906 9,376 22,654
1,507 1,567 1,627 1,689 1,750 1,810 6,963 15,407
347 352 356 368 378 387 1,312 3,152

91 92 93 94 94 95 439 907
150 156 139 118 97 72 669 1,251
91 94 96 98 99 100 419 905
22 23 34 38 41 44 101 281
36 38 40 42 44 43 175 381
390
_____ 402
_____ 400
_____ 389
_____ 376
_____ 354
_____ 1,804
______ 3,725
______
4,334 4,656 4,952 5,123 5,296 5,457 19,455 44,938
3,249 3,523 3,770 3,892 4,017 4,132 14,504 33,837
1,085 1,133 1,182 1,231 1,278 1,325 4,951 11,101

25,010 26,130 27,287 28,462 29,591 30,732 115,016 257,218

As a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product

8.4 8.9 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.5 8.2 8.8
6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.1 6.0
1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.2

0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4

0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.5
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
1.6
_____ 1.5
_____ 1.5
_____ 1.4
_____ 1.3
_____ 1.2
_____ 1.6
______ 1.4
______
17.3 17.8 18.1 18.0 17.9 17.8 16.9 17.5
13.0 13.5 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.4 12.6 13.2
4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
This file presents data that supplement CBO’s September 2020 report An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlo
www.cbo.gov/publication/56517

2. Changes in CBO’s Baseline Revenue Projections Since March 2020

Billions of Dollars

Fiscal Year 2020 2021 2022 2023

Legislative Changes
Individual income taxes -462 -256 184 179
Payroll taxes 3 0 -1 -1
Corporate income taxes -75 -6 2 3
Excise taxes -4 -2 0 0
Federal Reserve 0 0 0 0
Customs duties 0 0 0 0
Estate and gift taxes 0 0 0 0
Miscellaneous fees and fines 0 0 0 0
Subtotal -539 -264 186 182

Economic Changes
Individual income taxes -111 -195 -201 -187
Payroll taxes -89 -76 -49 -55
Corporate income taxes -30 -46 -42 -36
Excise taxes -3 -4 -3 -2
Federal Reserve 13 40 62 70
Customs duties -3 -5 -5 -5
Estate and gift taxes 0 -1 -1 -1
Miscellaneous fees and fines 0 0 0 0
Subtotal -223 -287 -239 -216

Technical Changes
Individual income taxes 315 118 -158 -175
Payroll taxes 97 -35 -24 3
Corporate income taxes 23 -82 -18 -11
Excise taxes -6 -4 0 0
Federal Reserve 3 2 2 2
Customs duties -4 -7 -8 -8
Estate and gift taxes 0 0 0 0
Miscellaneous fees and fines -2 -2 -2 -1
Subtotal 425 -8 -208 -190

Total Revenue Changes -337 -559 -261 -225

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

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he Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030.

Total
2021- 2021-
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2025 2030

2 2 2 1 1 0 0 111 114
-1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -4
7 11 11 7 5 2 3 17 45
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 12 12 8 5 2 2 124 153

-176 -161 -140 -125 -119 -122 -127 -919 -1,551

-62 -70 -67 -66 -68 -72 -73 -311 -656
-34 -30 -24 -19 -16 -15 -15 -188 -277
-2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -13 -20
77 80 79 59 34 11 -23 330 491
-4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -5 -6 -24 -48
-2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -7 -15
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-203 -188 -160 -158 -177 -205 -245 -1,132 -2,077

-23 -18 -11 -16 -14 -14 -13 -256 -324

3 -6 -8 -10 -10 -10 -13 -59 -110
-17 -20 -19 -15 -11 -7 -7 -148 -207
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 4
2 0 -1 -1 -3 -6 0 8 -4
-7 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 -8 -36 -72
0 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -5
-1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -8 -17
-42 -53 -47 -51 -47 -45 -43 -501 -735

-236 -228 -195 -201 -219 -248 -286 -1,509 -2,659

This file presents data that supplement CBO’s September 2020 report An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030.
www.cbo.gov/publication/56517

3. Detailed Individual Income Tax Projections in CBO's September 2020 Baseline

Billions of Dollars

Calendar Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Calculation of Adjusted Gross Income (AGI)

Salaries and wages 7,578 7,954 8,331 8,094 8,353 8,737 9,091 9,473 9,891 10,341 10,809 11,264 11,691 12,119
Taxable interest and ordinary dividends (excludes qualified dividends) 172 201 213 205 198 195 196 198 205 218 236 262 291 313
Qualified dividends 217 236 244 235 201 212 227 242 258 276 292 309 326 351
Capital gain or lossa 867 951 1,030 819 823 860 870 890 918 948 982 1,019 1,056 1,095
Net business income (all income and loss reported on Schedules C, E, and F) b 1,094 1,073 1,108 1,081 1,088 1,159 1,253 1,350 1,444 1,533 1,605 1,644 1,687 1,738
Taxable pensions and annuities and IRA distributions 1,016 1,091 1,135 1,230 1,214 1,256 1,299 1,336 1,383 1,444 1,513 1,584 1,651 1,715
Taxable Social Security benefits 310 339 364 388 394 418 446 479 515 552 593 638 686 733
All other sources of incomec -94 -19 -56 516 18 -3 -8 -12 -18 -159 -123 -133 -143 -153
Total income 11,159 11,825 12,369 12,567 12,287 12,834 13,372 13,954 14,596 15,152 15,907 16,587 17,245 17,910
Subtract Statutory adjustments 158 160 169 156 164 171 178 186 195 209 219 229 239 249
Adjusted gross income 11,001 11,665 12,201 12,411 12,124 12,663 13,194 13,768 14,400 14,942 15,688 16,358 17,006 17,661

Calculation of Taxable Income

Subtract Personal exemption amount (after limit) 1,156 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,424 1,444 1,480 1,517 1,555
Subtract Standard deduction (non-itemizers only) 926 2,305 2,373 2,441 2,482 2,534 2,606 2,676 2,725 1,118 1,141 1,159 1,178 1,196
Subtract Total itemized deductions (itemizers only) after limits d 1,401 679 699 673 670 679 684 716 786 1,968 2,112 2,280 2,458 2,632
Subtract Qualified business income deduction 0 189 195 197 195 205 221 236 251 0 0 0 0 0
Total exemptions and deductions after limitse 3,483 3,172 3,266 3,310 3,347 3,419 3,510 3,628 3,762 4,510 4,697 4,920 5,152 5,383
Taxable incomef 8,000 8,926 9,379 9,554 9,265 9,742 10,194 10,666 11,182 11,080 11,657 12,125 12,563 13,012

Taxable income—taxed at ordinary rates (before AMT) g 7,078 7,861 8,233 8,617 8,354 8,787 9,219 9,660 10,137 10,061 10,596 11,019 11,414 11,812
Taxable income in Bracket 1 1,410 1,489 1,541 1,600 1,562 1,607 1,661 1,719 1,779 1,818 1,886 1,947 2,006 2,064
in Bracket 2 2,629 2,869 2,991 3,141 3,003 3,122 3,244 3,377 3,523 3,543 3,701 3,838 3,968 4,093
in Bracket 3 1,311 1,547 1,631 1,751 1,655 1,757 1,846 1,937 2,037 1,990 2,110 2,210 2,297 2,386
in Bracket 4 470 746 796 858 838 899 953 1,005 1,063 757 808 849 887 925
in Bracket 5 397 180 192 200 201 217 232 246 260 627 669 701 731 763
in Bracket 6 57 275 293 299 304 330 355 378 402 87 93 97 101 105
in Bracket 7 804 755 789 768 790 856 929 999 1,071 1,238 1,330 1,377 1,425 1,477

Taxable income—taxed at reduced rates for capital gains and dividends 921 1,065 1,146 937 911 955 975 1,006 1,045 1,019 1,061 1,105 1,149 1,200

Calculation of Income Tax Liability

Total income tax (including AMT) before credits 1,654 1,627 1,714 1,737 1,698 1,800 1,896 1,994 2,100 2,374 2,508 2,613 2,712 2,815
Tax from taxable income and taxed at ordinary rates h 1,464 1,446 1,519 1,581 1,545 1,639 1,732 1,825 1,925 2,151 2,277 2,371 2,459 2,549
Tax from Bracket 1 141 149 154 160 156 161 166 172 178 182 189 195 201 206
from Bracket 2 394 344 359 377 360 375 389 405 423 531 555 576 595 614
from Bracket 3 328 340 359 385 364 386 406 426 448 497 527 552 574 597
from Bracket 4 132 179 191 206 201 216 229 241 255 212 226 238 248 259
from Bracket 5 131 58 61 64 64 70 74 79 83 207 221 231 241 252
from Bracket 6 20 96 103 105 107 116 124 132 141 31 33 34 35 37
from Bracket 7 318 279 292 284 292 317 344 369 396 490 527 545 564 585

Tax from taxable income and taxed at reduced rates for capital gains and dividends 152 178 193 154 150 158 161 166 172 166 173 181 188 196

Tax from AMT (including credits limited under the regular tax) 38 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 58 57 61 65 69
 Total credits (refundable and nonrefundable)i 164 238 242 240 246 247 251 255 258 177 178 179 181 182
Income tax after creditsj 1,584 1,500 1,585 1,606 1,571 1,670 1,763 1,858 1,961 2,298 2,430 2,534 2,632 2,734
Net investment income tax 25 28 31 26 25 26 27 28 30 31 33 36 38 40
Individual income tax liability 1,609 1,528 1,616 1,631 1,596 1,696 1,790 1,886 1,991 2,329 2,463 2,570 2,670 2,773

Memorandum:

Number of Returns (Millions)k 153 155 157 156 157 158 160 161 163 164 165 166 167 168
Number with itemized deductions 47 18 18 18 18 18 17 18 19 54 56 57 59 60
Number affected by the AMTl 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 7 8 8 8

Individual Income Tax Receipts (Billions of dollars, fiscal year) m 1,587 1,684 1,718 1,533 1,571 1,821 1,913 1,982 2,089 2,334 2,569 2,677 2,792 2,906

Earned Income Tax Credit n

66 66 68 67 74 73 73 74 74 74 75 75 76 77
Child Tax Credit/Credit for Other Dependentsn 52 123 125 128 124 125 128 129 131 50 49 49 48 47

Shares of AGI by Income Group (Percent)o

Top 1 percent 21 21 21 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 20
Top 5 percent 37 37 37 35 36 36 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
Top 10 percent 49 48 49 47 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
Top 25 percent 71 70 70 69 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
Top 50 percent 90 90 90 89 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

This table contains results from CBO's individual income tax model. That model begins with a sample of tax returns, projects them into future years on the basis of expected economic and demographic changes, and then applies tax
rules as scheduled under current law. Results from that model are a key input into CBO's individual income tax baseline, but that baseline also incorporates some additional information not captured by the model. For example,
CBO's ultimate projections of receipts consider tax returns filed in the three most recent years available.

These estimates are based on a sample of over 300,000 tax returns filed in 2017, created by the Internal Revenue Service. Details of that sample file and the concepts used in this table can be found at Internal Revenue Service,
Statistics of Income—2017: Individual Income Tax Returns Complete Report, Publication 3104, www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p1304.pdf.

a. This includes sales of capital assets and sales of property other than capital assets.

b. Business Income is before disallowed losses on Form 461 and the deduction for qualifying business income.

c. All sources of income or loss that are included in AGI but not reported above. Includes net operating losses from prior years, unemployment compensation, alimony received, taxable state and local tax refunds, gambling earnings,
the exclusion for foreign-earned income, disallowed business losses, and many other smaller items. The amounts for 2017 exclude the repatriated deferred income of shareholders of certain foreign corporations.

d. Amounts shown are after any applicable limits on each deduction, such as the limitation of the SALT deduction, and after applying the overall limitation on itemized deductions.

e. Total exemptions and deductions include the deduction for qualifying business income. Limits include the Personal Exemption Phaseout and the Overall Limitation on Itemized Deductions.

f. Taxable Income is larger than AGI minus total deductions and exemptions because taxable income cannot fall below zero, even if deductions and exemptions exceed AGI.

g. See the supplemental data on parameters for bracket thresholds. Bracket thresholds were temporarily modified by the 2017 tax act and will revert to pre-2018 levels (adjusted for inflation) in 2026.

h. See the supplemental data on parameters for the rate structure. Statutory rates were temporarily modified by the 2017 tax act and will revert to pre-2018 rates in 2026.

i. Excludes the premium tax credit.

j. Income Tax After Credits does not include the portion of certain refundable credits that are considered outlays.

k. Based on returns filed in 2017, including dependents, plus estimates of future additional filers. This estimate does not account for changes in the filing thresholds that may cause some current filers to stop filing.
l. Includes taxpayers with liability under the AMT and some taxpayers for whom the AMT limits their credits taken under the regular income tax.

m. The final projections of individual income tax receipts include many adjustments to the tax year liability estimate. Those adjustments include converting the projections from a calendar year liability basis to a fiscal year receipts
basis, adding receipts of back taxes and fiduciary taxes, accounting for reallocations made between individual income and payroll taxes, adding the effects of certain legislation not explicitly modeled on the microsimulation tax
model, and adjusting for differences in projected tax liabilities and those implied by recently observed collections.

n. Includes both the outlay portion of the credit and the portion offsetting tax liabilities.

o. Income groups are defined on the basis of the distribution of tax units by adjusted gross income.

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This file presents data that supplement CBO’s September 2020 report An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlo
www.cbo.gov/publication/56517

4. Payroll Tax Revenues Projected in CBO's September 2020 Baseline, by Source

Billions of Dollars

Fiscal Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Social Security 914 965 898 930 997 1,040
Medicare 278 292 274 286 306 319
Unemployment Insurance 41 46 63 107 97 91
Railroad Retirement 6 5 5 5 6 6
Other Retirementa 5
___ 5
___ 5
___ 6
___ 6
___ 7
___
Total 1,243 1,313 1,246 1,335 1,412 1,463

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

a. Consists primarily of federal employees' contributions to the Federal Employees Retirement System and the Civil

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e Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030.

Total
2021- 2021-
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2025 2030
1,085 1,133 1,182 1,231 1,278 1,325 4,951 11,101
334 350 366 383 399 414 1,518 3,430
75 71 65 60 57 53 433 738
6 6 6 6 6 7 28 59
7
___ 8
___ 9
___ 9
___ 10
___ 10
___ 32
____ 78
_____
1,507 1,567 1,627 1,689 1,750 1,810 6,963 15,407

rement System and the Civil Service Retirement System.

This file presents data that supplement CBO’s September 2020 report An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030.
www.cbo.gov/publication/56517

5. Excise Tax Revenues Projected in CBO’s September 2020 Baseline, by Source

Billions of Dollars

Total
2021- 2021-
Fiscal Year 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2025 2030
Excise Taxes
Highway Taxes
Highway Trust Fund
Gasoline and gasoline blendstocks 23.6 24.6 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.3 24.2 24.0 23.9 23.8 123.7 243.9
Diesel fuel and kerosene 9.9 9.9 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 50.6 102.7
Other motor fuels 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.4
Highway tractors, heavy trucks, and trailers 4.3 3.9 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.8 22.8 50.2
Tires for heavy vehicles 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.6 5.6
Heavy vehicle use 1.2
____ 1.3
____ 1.3
____ 1.3
____ 1.4
____ 1.4
____ 1.4
____ 1.5
____ 1.5
____ 1.5
____ 1.5
____ 6.6
____ 14.0
____
Subtotal 39.6 40.3 41.6 41.7 41.7 41.8 41.8 42.0 42.2 42.3 42.4 207.1 417.9

Refunds and credits from the general fund -3.4 -1.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -5.4 -10.4
LUST Trust Fund taxes 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.9 1.7
Total Highway Taxes 36.4 39.2 40.8 40.9 40.9 40.9 41.0 41.2 41.4 41.5 41.6 202.5 409.2

Aviation Taxes
Airport and Airways Trust Fund
Domestic air passengers 5.9 7.8 11.8 12.8 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.3 59.4 135.7
International air passengers 2.2 2.9 4.3 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 21.8 49.3
Air cargo (freight) transportation 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 2.9 6.1
Aviation fuels 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.8 5.8
Refunds 0.0
____ 0.0
____ 0.0
____ 0.0
____ 0.0
____ 0.0
____ 0.0
____ 0.0
____ 0.0
____ 0.0
____ 0.0
____ -0.1
____ -0.1
____
Subtotal 8.6 11.5 17.3 18.7 19.3 19.9 20.6 21.3 22.0 22.7 23.4 86.7 196.7

Other (Overflight fees, LUST Trust Fund taxes) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.9

Total Aviation Taxes 8.7 11.6 17.5 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.8 21.5 22.2 22.9 23.6 87.5 198.6

Health Care 18.8 2.8 2.8 1.7 4.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 14.2 28.4
Tobacco 12.0 11.8 11.6 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.6 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.8 56.6 107.7
Alcohol 10.1 10.8 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.1 57.4 120.5
Other 4.0
_____ 4.7
_____ 4.0
_____ 4.1
_____ 4.1
_____ 4.1
_____ 4.2
_____ 4.2
_____ 4.3
_____ 4.4
_____ 4.4
_____ 20.9
_____ 42.4
______
Total 90.1 80.8 88.0 88.4 91.2 90.8 91.6 92.6 93.6 94.5 95.4 439.2 906.8

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

LUST = leaking underground storage tank.

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