2017 International Conference on circuits Power and Computing Technologies [ICCPCT]
Probablistic Load Flow Of a Distributed Generation
Connected Power System By Two Point Estimate
Method
[1] [2]
Basanta K. Panigrahi, Sourav K. Sahu
[1] [2]
Department of EE, S’O’A University, Department
of EE, IGIT
[1] [2]
Bhubaneswar, India, Sarang, India
[1]
basanta1983@gmail.com,
[2]
souravkumar1566@gmail.com
Abstract—The modern power system demands more (DG)
distributed generation system connected to the power system because
of high demand issues. Taking the environmental concern the DG is
chosen to be environmental friendly. The generation capacity of such
DG are variable because of the source of the energy is highly
variable. To connect such system to the exiting power system a
analysis must be done to check the distribution system is working
perfectly well as per our desire. The probabilistic load flow(PLF)
approach is very useful in this scenario to obtain the possible as well
as more accurate results. This work explains the solution of various
problems of load flow when PV DG’s are connected to the system.
For the daily operation and for the planning and design purposes the
load flow analysis is required. Without considering the uncertainty in
load demand, change in the network configuration and outage of
generating units, deterministic load flow carries out the calculations
where as the probabilistic load flow approach takes all these
uncertainties and the solution is obtained in a range which directly
proportional to the probability of occurrence.
Keywords— Distributed Generation (DG), Probabilistic Load
Flow.
I. INTRODUCTION
The distribution system in the electrical power system is most
important because it is the medium through with the consumer
is connected to the system. Power must be deliver to the
consumer economically and the reliability should also be
achieved to have an uninterrupted power supply. The
conventional generation consists of large alternators connected
to the power system normally at a higher voltage level. In
contrary to it the DG [6] connected to the power system at LV
side. One of the other common name to the distributed
generation (DG) [8] is embedded generation. When the DG
injects power to the system the voltage profile gets improved
978-1- 5090-4967- 7/17/$31.00 © 2017 IEEE
.
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[ 3] [4]
Ria Nandi, Satamanyu Nayak
[ 3] [4]
Department of EEE, S’O’A University, Department
of EEE CUTM
[ 3] [ 4 ]
Bhubaneswar, India
[ 3]
nandiriya@ymail.com,
[4]
nayak.satamanyu@gmail.com
and this also can cause various voltage problems. May be at
the point of common coupling over voltage problem arise. As
nonconventional sources like wind and sunlight varies
throughout so the generation is also get affected by these
natural conditions such as the wind power generation depends
on the wind speed and the generation rate from a photovoltaic
(PV) cell depends on the sun irradiation. So a unpredictability
is taken into account while considering a distributed
generation. In regular interval deterministic load flow analysis
to is adopted to evaluate the planning and operation. The
accurate value of power generation and load demand of a
specific power system network is required for the calculation
of power flows and system states in deterministic load flow approach
(DLF).
As DG is connected to the power system network a
certain amount of power is pumped to the system which cause
some of the unusual behaviors in the system. Various
uncertainties takes place in the network in addition to injection
of power, there are many uncertainties like unbalance between
demand and generation loss of alternators and change in the
network configuration. Due to all these uncertainties it is
nearly impossible to get a desired result by deterministic
approach because it does not take all these constrains while
calculating all the parameters so it gives highly unrealistic
answers. Because of some problems like operational reliability
and design aspect it is necessary to appraise line flows for
some range of loads. For every change in load it is impossible
to perform load flow because of the huge calculation and time
taken for it. The probabilistic load flow is introduced by
Borkowska [1] and he also coined the solution for the
problem. Numerous methodologies are introduced to solve the
problem. For calculation of the PLF it requires the inputs with
CDF or PDF to obtain the power flow (in PDF or CDF), so
 2017 International Conference on circuits Power and Computing Technologies [ICCPCT]

that the various uncertainties can be taken into account

we get the desired output.
and Where [J ] is corresponds to branch current matrix and
II. PROBABILISTIC LOADFLOW
[I ] is nodal current matrix. When diagonal matrix
(n × n)[Z b ] is multiplied with BIBC matrix; BCBV matrix is
A. Load Flow of Radial Distribution System: obtained.
The backward and forward sweep practices are used for
determining the DLF of the radial network. Here all nodal ª Z11 0 0 0 0 º
voltages are taken as 1P.u expect the known or given voltage «0 . 0 0 0 »»
i.e. the voltage of substation and calculation of current «
injection (or) taken away from each bus is carried out and
active and reactive power at each bus data is also used in this
[BCBV ] = [BIBC ]′ × « 0 0 Z bb 0 0 » (1.3)
« »
calculation .In this technique the back sweep is performed first, «0 0 0 . 0 »
in back sweep currents calculated by Kirchhoff’s current law.
In the forward sweep technique the voltages at node points are
«¬ 0 0 0 0 Z nn »¼
calculated using corresponding current and impedances. This
process of backward and forward sweep is continued till we get Where [Zb ] refers to a diagonal matrix ( n × n ) , the elements
convergence in the nodal voltages. These calculations can also of this matrix are corresponds to complex impedances.
be done in matrix method. Let us take a radial power system
network which has n sections, so the number of nodes
[DLF ] = [BCBV ]× [BIBC ] (1.4)

becomes n +1 . Initially let’s take a square matrix of

ªΔV2 º ªI2 º
dimension n × n , here a column indicate n nodes and rows
«. » «. »
refers to n branches. This is named as BIBC matrix .The
« » « »
values of the elements of this matrix is 0 and 1 only. When the
«ΔVi » = [DLF ]× « I i » (1.5)
node refers to column j is supplied through the branch refers to
« » « »
row i, then the value is 1; 0 elsewhere[4].The complex «. » «. »
«¬ΔVn+1 »¼ «¬ I n+1 »¼
power( Si ) for node ‘i’ can be written as:
*
[ ]
Where elements of this matrix Δ V are the line drops till the
S i = Vi I i = Pi + jQ i respective node from the substation bus i.e. bus no. 1. The
(1.1)
nodal voltages can be calculated by using the line drops by the
Where reactive power and real power Qi and Pi can be equation
Qi = QLi − QGi Pi = PLi − PGi Vi +1 = V1 − ΔVi+1 i = 1,2,3...n (1.6)
given by and , Here DG is The convergences within the specified limits are must for
th
connected to i node. Power absorbed and generated at the finding out the nodal voltages [4].
point where DG is synchronized to the power system is
indicated by the suffix L and G respectively. From above III. POINT ESTIMATION METHOD
equation (1.1) nodal current I i for i th
node can evaluated. Using approximation technique point estimation method
solves the probable load flow equations. The point estimation
The branch currents of radial system can be calculated by method performs statistical conclusion and uses simple
using BIBC matrix and nodal current numerical methods for probability allotment of load flow
solution. This can calculate the statistical data of random
ª J1 º ªI 2 º quantity which is a function of random variable [2][5]. The
«⋅ » «⋅ » attention in the use of the point estimate method may be paid
on simultaneously and efficiently evaluating several random
« » « »
« J i » = [BIBC ]× « I i » (1.2)
variables. The priority in point estimation method is given on
the calculating the random variable. Probabilistic load-flow
« » « » analysis carry out probabilistic sculpt of generation injections,
«⋅ » «. » loads, various line parameters, and network circumstances and
«¬ J n »¼ «¬ I n+1 »¼ these ambiguity factors taken into account in the load-flow
calculation. Calculation effectiveness and precision are the
troubles when probabilistic simulation or analytical techniques
are used to obtain an estimate of the load-flow solution
distributions. As the existing PLF techniques may not
accurately frame the connection between input parameters and
load flow equation, so they need more improvisation to

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 2017 International Conference on circuits Power and Computing Technologies [ICCPCT]

enhance the computational performance. In such situation the th

k th point approximate [2], [5].The j instant of the l th RV
statistical inferences are done by point estimation method.
Point estimate methods beat the problems related with the wl ,k Z l ,k
inadequate knowledge of the probability functions of stochastic can be calculated by the equation (2.6) using and
variables, since these functions are approximated using their data.
first few statistical values. so, smaller extent of data are
needed. The parameters which are uncertain are chosen as
random variable and these random variables includes the
( ) § ·
K m
power produced by the PV-DG system along with the load μZ j = E Zl j ≅ ¦¨ Zl ,k j × ¦wl ,k ¸
© ¹
l
attached to it, active and reactive power immersed in the k =1 l =1
(2.6)
system. The concentration of each random variable (RV) for
K point estimation method can be given as [5]; After obtaining the statistical time period of the yield RV, the
cumulative distribution function curve(CDFs) of the random
ρ l ,k = μ ρ + ξ l ,k σ ρ variables can be plotted using Gram-Charlier series[3].
l l (2.1)
A. Two Point Estimate Scheme(2PEM)
ρl,k th ρ μ
where is the k concentration of l RV, ρl is the mean For output calculation purpose, two concentration points per
input RV are need. The time period and the statistical
σρ information are estimated by taking the value of ‘k’ as two by
of consequent RV, l is the standard deviation of
equation (2.2) and (2.3). For calculation of standard location
ξ th
corresponding RV and l,k is the k standard location of λl λl , 3
and weight of random variable , skewness factor is
corresponding RV.
sufficient.
By using theories of Miller and Rice[7] the standard location
ξ l , k and weight wl ,k of corresponding RV are calculated by λl ,3 §λ ·
2

the beneath stated non liner equation(2.2) and (2.3) ξl , k = + (−1) 3− k

× m + ¨¨ l ,3 ¸¸ (2.7)
K 2 © 2 ¹
1
¦w
k =1
l ,k =
m For k = 1,2
(2.2)
1 ξ
K j
wl , k = (−1) k l ,3− k (2.8)
¦ wl ,k (ξl ,k ) = λl , j
k =1
m ξl ,1 − ξl , 2
(2.3) For k = 1,2
j = 1,2,..( 2 × k − 1) ξ l,k
From (2.7) it is seen that is the function of collection of
Where ‘ m ’ refers to total number of input RVs. input RVs. The concentration point
ρ l,k may diverge from
λl, j th
ρ l with μ m
represents j standard central moment of mean value p,l according to the value of . The probable
f ρl location is at points wherever the probability distribution
probability density function ; ρ
of l is unknown. This is the drawback of the two point
M j (ρ l ) estimation method [5].
λl , j =
(σ )ρl
j
(2.4)
B. Software Implimentation Of Point Estimate Method
The above said PV-DG distribution network can be modeled
∞ by MATLAB software in which point estimation method of
M j ( ρ l ) = ³ ( ρ l − μ ρ l ) j f ρ l dρ l (2.5) PLF is discussed; below are the steps for it:
−∞
Step 1: input the given data for the input random variable i.e.
λl ,1 λl , 2 λl ,3 the mean and standard deviation of the normally distributed
The value of is equal to 0, is equal to 1 and , real and reactive power at each load bus. Shape parameters for
λl , 4 ρ l in that order. the beta distributed active power injected by the PV-DG at
are the skew and kurtosis of
particular bus where PV-DG is installed.

The concentration points and their weights l ,k l ,k

are
(ρ ,w ) Step 2: estimate the concentration points and their weights
according to the point estimate scheme used for each random
calculated , the deterministic load flow is carried out at these variable i.e. the active and reactive load power at each bus and

points
(ρ 1,k , ρ 2,k ,....ρl ,k .....ρ m,k )
giving
Z l ,k
output RV for
the active power injected by PV-DG where it is installed.

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 2017 International Conference on circuits Power and Computing Technologies [ICCPCT]

Step 3: taking each set concentration points for all the random 3 1.0367 0.6262
input variables carry out the deterministic load flow and 4 1.0217 1.2454
obtain the solution for all the set of concentration points 5 1.0165 1.4822
depending up the estimate scheme used. 6 1.0012 2.1080
Step 4: using the distribution of the weights of the 7 0.9944 2.3700
concentration points calculate the moments about the origin 8 0.9876 2.6325
for each random output variable i.e. the bus voltages and the 9 0.9823 2.8482
power flows in each branch of the distribution network. 10 0.9777 3.0380
Step 5: using the moments calculate the variance, skewness , 11 0.9638 3.6081
kurtosis and the coefficient of the Gram-Charlier expansion
12 0.9587 3.8074
series for the CDF and it is plotted.
13 0.9579 3.8346
IV. REASULT ANALYSIS 14 0.9590 3.7590
15 0.9871 2.6530
16 0.9871 2.6405
TABLE1 The results obtained by the two point
estimate (2PEM) 17 0.9888 2.5462
18 0.9993 2.1930
2PEM 19 0.9948 2.3924
Time(sec) 6.665 20 0.9930 2.4698
21 1.0009 2.1216
In the test system with one PV-DG at bus 14, without any 22 1.0294 0.9006
PV-DG and PV-DG connected to the bus 14 and 17 at a time 23 1.0260 1.0480
are compared and it is seen that with the connection of PV-DG 24 1.0226 1.1984
to the system the voltage has improved significantly at the end
25 1.0139 1.5808
of the buses as shown in the below fig.1.
26 1.0104 1.7332
27 1.0077 1.8510
28 1.0415 0.3615
29 1.0352 0.6313
30 1.0331 0.7233

V. Conclusion

The inability to meet the load demand compels the

DG systems to come into the picture. Because of the injection
of power from the LV load; the instability arises. The
instability or the abnormal conditions arises due to the partial
voltage fluctuation at the point of common coupling. For the
purpose of countering these voltage problems at the various
buses due to the DG connection, the probabilistic analysis is
must needed tool. In this work, the efficiency and the accuracy
of the point estimate method was tested on a radial distribution
Fig. 1. network of 30 bus system when PV-DG is connected at bus 14
and 17. It can be clearly conclude that with the addition of
more and more PV-DG. The voltage abnormalities can be
TABLE2 Mean voltage and standard deviation of the
handled more efficiently. The point estimate method is more
bus voltages by2PEM
significantly and efficiently valuable for the operation and
VOLTAGE VOLTAGE maintenance of distribution system.
MEAN(P.U) STANDARD DEVIATION
(%)
2PEM 2PEM REFERENCES
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 2017 International Conference on circuits Power and Computing Technologies [ICCPCT]

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