FORECASTS AT A GLANCE

20 November 2020

Uneven rebound from deep global recession

An extreme global health emergency meets an unprecedented policy response. CONTENTS
● The virus pandemic dealt an unusual and very severe shock to global demand US: Solid recovery, political risks 2
and supply in March and April. The medical situation still determines economic
outcomes much more than economic fundamentals. China: Stimulus-driven recovery 3
● Tick-shaped recovery: When advanced economies eased their lockdowns from Japan: Uneven rebound 4
late April onwards, activity initially rebounded fast as shops and factories
reopened, driven by strong consumer spending on goods. As expected, the pace UK: Severe virus damage 5
of recovery slowed down over the summer. The snap-back phase is over. Eurozone: Late 2020 setback 6
● The next stage: The production and cross-border exchange of goods has
started to catch up with consumer spending. In 2021, increased government Germany: Temporary setback 7
investment and private investment will support the rebound. France: Serious second-wave hit 8
● The sweet spot of the cycle: Despite serious short-term risks, markets can look
Italy: Recovery interrupted 9
forward to years of growth at very low inflation and record policy support.
● The second wave: The advent of the colder and darker season has contributed Spain: Serious second wave 10
to a new surge in COVID-19 cases in Europe and, with a lag, the US.
Portugal: Second-wave risks 11
Containment measures are causing a renewed contraction in GDP in Europe.
But the experience of the almost V-shaped Q3 rebound from the Q2 plunge Forecast changes 12
shows that economies can recover fast once the infections wave subsides.
Key financial forecasts 12
● The healing takes time: We expect the US to return to its pre-pandemic level of
GDP in Q4 2021, followed by Germany and France (Q1 2022). The UK and Italy
may need until early 2023.
● A huge policy response: Monetary, fiscal and regulatory policies remain in
“whatever it takes” mode across much of the world. These responses can
contain second-round risks such as those from potential financial stress.
Forecast changes:
● Japanese GDP: We have revised up our 2020 call to -5.3% from -5.8%.

GDP growth Inflation Unemployment Fiscal balance

Weight 2019 2020 2021 2022 2019 2020 2021 2022 2019 2020 2021 2022 2019 2020 2021 2022
World* 100.0 2.3 -3.3 4.0 2.6
US 24.2 2.2 -3.5 3.9 2.5 1.8 1.2 1.8 2.0 3.7 8.1 6.1 4.6 -4.6 -16.0 -9.0 -6.0
China 15.8 6.2 2.7 9.0 4.8 2.9 2.6 1.4 2.2 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 -3.8 -7.0 -5.0 -4.0
Japan 5.9 0.7 -5.3 3.2 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.5 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.6 -3.6 -11.0 -6.0 -5.0
India 3.2 5.0 -2.5 3.5 4.0 -2.2 -9.0 -6.0 -4.0
Latin America 6.2 1.5 -6.0 3.5 2.5 -4.6 -10.0 -7.0 -4.0
Europe 25.7 1.2 -7.6 4.9 3.2
Eurozone 16.1 1.3 -7.4 5.0 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.8 1.3 7.6 7.9 8.5 8.0 -0.6 -11.5 -6.5 -3.5
Germany 4.7 0.6 -5.5 4.3 2.6 1.4 0.4 1.3 1.3 3.1 4.2 4.6 3.6 1.5 -9.0 -4.5 -2.5
France 3.3 1.5 -9.5 6.7 3.9 1.3 0.4 0.8 1.3 8.5 8.0 8.7 7.6 -3.0 -11.0 -7.0 -3.5
Italy 2.4 0.3 -9.1 6.0 3.1 0.6 -0.2 0.5 1.3 9.9 9.4 10.5 9.7 -1.6 -13.5 -6.0 -3.5
Spain 1.7 2.0 -12.0 7.1 6.2 0.8 -0.4 0.6 1.3 14.1 15.7 16.4 15.0 -2.4 -13.5 -7.0 -4.0
Portugal 0.3 2.2 -8.5 5.9 3.7 0.3 -0.1 0.4 1.3 6.6 5.9 8.4 7.0 0.1 -10.5 -5.5 -3.0
Other Western Europe
UK 3.3 1.3 -11.9 6.5 3.9 1.8 0.9 1.2 2.0 3.8 4.7 6.7 5.2 -1.6 -13.5 -6.0 -3.0
Switzerland 0.8 0.8 -5.7 4.3 2.6 0.6 0.0 0.6 0.9 2.3 4.3 4.0 3.2 3.8 -7.5 -3.0 -1.0
Sweden 0.7 1.3 -6.0 5.0 2.6 1.8 0.9 1.3 1.5 6.3 8.0 7.2 6.8 0.5 -7.5 -3.0 -1.5
Eastern Europe
Russia 1.9 1.0 -5.0 3.5 2.5 4.5 2.0 3.0 3.9 4.6 7.0 5.0 4.7  2.1 -6.0 -4.0 -1.5
Turkey 0.9 -1.2 -6.0 3.5 3.0 15.2 9.0 8.5 8.0 14.0 18.0 15.0 13.0 -4.0 -9.0 -7.0 -4.0
Unemployment rate: Harmonised definition (ILO/Eurostat); fiscal balance: general government deficit in % of GDP excluding one-off bank support.
Official European unemployment rates are skewed downward in 2020 and H1 2021; workers receiving wage subsidies while furloughed are counted as employed in Europe
while people on “temporary layoffs” are counted as unemployed in the US. In addition, in France, Italy, Spain and Portugal, many workers who were unable to search for work
during the lockdown were classified as not participating in the labour market rather than unemployed - this further skews down their unemployment rates in H1 2020.
*At market exchange rates, not purchasing power parity. PPP estimates give more weight to fast-growing emerging markets and inflate global GDP.
Weights based on IMF World Economic Outlook statistics 2018 GDP figures. Source: Berenberg

Holger Schmieding Mickey D. Levy Kallum Pickering Florian Hense

Berenberg Berenberg Capital Markets Berenberg Berenberg
Chief Economist Chief Economist US, Americas and Asia Senior Economist European Economist
holger.schmieding@berenberg.com mickey.levy@berenberg-us.com kallum.pickering@berenberg.com florian.hense@berenberg.com
+44 20 3207 7889 +1 646 949 9099 +44 20 3465 2672 +44 20 3207 7859
Mickey D. Levy
Chief Economist US, Americas and Asia
mickey.levy@berenberg-us.com
+1 646 949 9099

US: solid recovery from deep recession

Key drivers of forecast
US private consumption and disposable income
● Unlike previous recessions: The abrupt shocks to supply 12
and demand from the pandemic and government
shutdown were deep and fundamentally different than
either the recession stemming from the financial crisis of 6
2008-2009 or the 1973 oil price shock
● Recovery from the shock: Following a deep short
0
contraction in consumption and investment, and massive
job losses, a strong rebound continued over the summer as
more normal activities resumed
-6
Real private consumption
● Aggressive fiscal and monetary policies support further
recovery Real disposable income
-12
● We expect the Fed to continue with its sizable quantitative 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
easing and to anchor its policy rate to zero through 2023
Quarterly data, yoy change in %. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
● Risks and uncertainties: Economy has momentum, policy Berenberg versus consensus
uncertainties remain
2020 2021
Ber Cons Gap Ber Cons Gap
GDP -3.5 -3.6 0.1 3.9 3.8 0.1
Inflation 1.2 1.2 0.0 1.8 1.9 -0.1
Unemployment 8.1 8.1 0.0 6.1 6.3 -0.2

Bloomberg consensus, taken on 20 November 2020. Numbers may not

add up due to rounding

2019 2020 2021 2022 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22
GDP % y/y 2.2 -3.5 3.9 2.5 0.3 -9.0 -2.9 -2.5 -0.5 10.2 3.4 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3
% q/q -1.3 -9.0 7.4 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
%q/q ann. -5.0 -31.4 33.1 4.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3
Private Consumption % y/y 2.4 -3.8 4.9 2.5 0.2 -10.2 -2.9 -2.1 0.6 12.4 3.9 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.3
% q/q -1.8 -9.6 8.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6
Residential Investment % y/y -1.7 4.8 10.0 4.9 6.6 -4.0 6.6 9.9 6.8 20.7 8.7 5.2 4.8 4.7 5.0 5.0
% q/q 4.4 -10.4 12.3 4.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.1
Non-Residential Investment % y/y 2.9 -4.7 4.2 5.2 -1.3 -8.9 -5.0 -3.5 -0.8 8.6 4.8 4.5 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.3
% q/q -1.7 -7.6 4.7 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.1
Government Purchases % y/y 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.4 2.7 2.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.1 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2
% q/q 0.3 0.6 -1.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
Final Dom Demand 1 % y/y 2.3 -2.8 4.2 2.6 0.6 -7.8 -2.4 -1.5 0.6 9.8 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.5
% q/q -1.2 -7.6 6.6 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Exports % y/y -0.1 -12.3 9.9 4.8 -2.6 -23.9 -14.6 -8.5 -3.9 26.7 14.0 6.9 5.5 4.7 4.6 4.6
% q/q -2.5 -22.8 12.4 8.0 2.5 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2
Imports % y/y 1.1 -9.1 13.9 5.3 -5.3 -22.4 -8.9 0.4 6.8 31.9 13.7 6.6 5.6 5.2 5.2 5.1
% q/q -4.0 -17.7 17.6 8.0 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.1
Net Exports1 % y/y -0.2 0.0 -1.2 -0.4 0.6 0.9 -0.3 -1.2 -1.7 -2.0 -0.7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4
% q/q 0.4 0.1 -1.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Stockbuilding 1, 5 % y/y 0.0 -0.7 0.6 0.1 -1.0 -1.8 -0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
% q/q -0.4 -1.1 1.7 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Current Account Balance USD bn -480 -745 -996 -1058 -112 -171 -222 -240 -244 -247 -251 -254 -258 -262 -268 -270
% of GDP -2.2 -3.6 -4.5 -4.5 -2.1 -3.5 -4.2 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 -4.6 -4.7 -4.0 -4.7 -4.8
Industrial Production 2 % y/y 0.9 -7.0 5.4 5.6 -1.9 -14.2 -6.7 -5.3 -2.3 13.8 5.8 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
% q/q -1.7 -13.0 9.0 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4
Unemployment Rate 2 % 3.7 8.1 6.1 4.6 3.8 13.0 8.8 6.9 6.9 6.4 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4
CPI 2 % y/y 1.8 1.2 1.8 2.0 2.1 0.4 1.3 1.1 1.2 2.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1
Core PCE 2 % y/y 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9
Federal Govt. Balance 3,6 % of GDP -4.6 -16.0 -9.0 -6.0
Federal Govt. Debt % of GDP 107.0 123.0 129.0 128.0
Fed Funds Rate 4 % 1.75 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
1
Contribution to GDP growth 2 Period averages 3 Federal budget balance 4 End of period 5 Annual data refers to yoy change and quarterly data refers to qoq change
6
Differs from Maastricht definition used for European countries. Under Maastricht, the balance would be -5.0% in 2017 (European Commission)

2
Mickey D. Levy
Chief Economist US, Americas and Asia
mickey.levy@berenberg-us.com
+1 646 949 9099

China: rebound – but beyond epidemic, challenges persist

Key drivers of forecast PMI manufacturing and service sector back to growth
● The recovery is driven by export-related manufacturing 60
and government investment, but consumer spending is
55
weak without ongoing government stimulus
● Potential growth decelerating: Following several decades 50

of unsustainably robust growth, slower productivity and

45
labor force are naturally weighing on activity
40
● Monetary and fiscal policies are still providing significant
stimulus; stronger yuan may cut into exports 35
Manufacturing Services
● Risks: Following recovery from pandemic, economic 30
challenges loom; China’s role in global supply chains will
be trimmed 25
2017 2018 2019 2020

50=no change. Source: Caixin, Markit

Berenberg versus consensus
2020 2021
Ber Cons Gap Ber Cons Gap
GDP 2.7 2.0 0.7 9.0 8.0 1.0
Inflation 2.6 2.8 -0.2 1.4 2.2 -0.8
Unemployment 3.7 3.8 -0.1 3.6 3.6 0.0
Fiscal balance -7.0 -6.7 -0.3 -5.0 -5.8 0.8

Bloomberg consensus, taken on 20 November 2020. Numbers may not

add up due to rounding

Data for 2019 and Q1 to Q3 2020 are from the China National Bureau of Statistics which may significantly overstate actual performance.
Q4 2020-Q4 2022 are Berenberg forecasts.
2019 2020 2021 2022 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22
GDP % y/y 6.2 2.7 9.0 4.8 -6.8 3.2 4.9 9.7 19.4 6.8 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9
% q/q -10.0 11.7 2.7 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
%q/q ann. -34.4 55.7 11.2 6.1 4.7 5.1 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8

Retail Sales 1 % y/y 8.0 -3.5 12.3 5.1 -15.3 -4.0 0.9 4.6 21.0 13.0 8.0 7.0 5.5 5.1 4.9 4.9

Fixed Asset Investment 2,4 % y/y 5.7 -5.1 11.5 4.6 -16.1 -6.6 -0.4 2.8 18.2 12.0 9.0 7.0 4.9 4.5 4.6 4.4

Industrial Production % y/y 5.7 1.9 7.9 4.2 -9.4 4.3 5.8 7.1 14.0 8.0 5.0 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.1

Exports 3 % y/y 0.5 3.5 7.1 3.5 -8.7 0.1 8.8 11.4 14.0 7.7 5.0 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.5 3.2

Imports 3 % y/y -2.7 0.1 8.1 3.4 -0.8 -9.7 3.2 7.0 5.7 16.0 6.9 5.0 3.0 4.0 3.0 3.5

Current Account Balance $ bn 142 227 239 233 -14 110 81 49 24 98 78 40 5 104 79 44
% of GDP 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.4
Unemployment Rate % 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
CPI % y/y 2.9 2.6 1.4 2.2 5.0 2.7 2.3 0.3 -0.4 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2
General Govt Balance % of GDP -3.8 -7.0 -5.0 -4.0
General Govt Debt % of GDP 47.6 52.8 53.0 52.2
1 2 3 4
Nominal Year-to-date over same period in previous year Growth rates based on monthly value data in USD Includes government investment

3
Mickey D. Levy
Chief Economist US, Americas and Asia
mickey.levy@berenberg-us.com
+1 646 949 9099

Japan: recovers from pandemic

Key drivers of forecast Japan: exports have started to rebound
● The economy bounced back more strongly in Q3 7.2
following its deep contraction in the first half of 2020;
renewed spreading of the pandemic will temporarily slow 6.8
the recovery
6.4
● Japan’s very large fiscal stimulus will boost growth once
the pandemic begins to ebb 6.0

● The Bank of Japan will continue its quantitative and

5.6
qualitative monetary easing and its yield curve control
(YCC) policy, with little impact on either the economy or
5.2
inflation
Risks – negative near-term, positive longer-run 4.8
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
● Upside: Exports have strengthened; significant pent-up Monthly data. In trillion Yen. Source: Ministry of Finance and Japan
demand Tariff Association
● Downside risk: Second wave of pandemic harmful Berenberg versus consensus
● Long-term challenge: Demographics are negative; solid 2020 2021
gains in productivity must be maintained Ber Cons Gap Ber Cons Gap
GDP -5.3 -5.4 0.1 3.2 2.5 0.8
Inflation 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2
Unemployment 2.8 2.9 -0.1 2.9 3.2 -0.3
Fiscal balance -11.0 -11.0 0.0 -6.0 -7.5 1.5

Bloomberg consensus, taken on 20 November 2020. Numbers may not

add up due to rounding

2019 2020 2021 2022 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22
GDP % y/y 0.7 -5.3 3.2 1.9 -1.9 -10.3 -5.9 -3.2 -1.7 8.1 3.8 3.3 2.7 2.0 1.5 1.2
% q/q -0.6 -8.2 5.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2
%q/q ann. -2.3 -28.8 21.4 4.1 3.8 4.0 3.1 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.0
Private Consumption % y/y 0.2 -5.9 4.7 2.5 -2.6 -11.0 -7.3 -2.6 -0.5 9.5 5.7 4.5 3.5 2.8 2.1 1.5
% q/q -0.7 -8.1 4.6 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2
Government Consumption % y/y 2.0 2.2 2.9 0.6 2.2 0.9 2.2 3.4 3.8 4.6 2.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5
% q/q 0.0 -0.3 2.2 1.5 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2
Private Investment % y/y 0.9 -6.4 1.4 3.4 -2.6 -7.0 -11.2 -4.8 -4.4 0.5 5.7 4.1 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.3
% q/q 0.8 -3.9 -4.1 2.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.8
Public Investment % y/y 2.8 2.2 0.9 0.3 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.6 2.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
% q/q -0.3 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0
Final Domestic Demand 1 % y/y 0.8 -4.0 3.5 2.2 -1.4 -7.2 -5.7 -1.5 -0.2 6.5 4.7 3.5 2.9 2.3 1.9 1.6
% q/q -0.3 -5.2 2.3 1.9 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3
Exports % y/y -1.6 -14.1 8.3 6.5 -5.4 -22.0 -15.9 -12.9 -5.2 17.9 12.5 10.4 8.2 6.8 6.0 5.0
% q/q -5.3 -17.4 7.0 4.0 3.0 2.8 2.2 2.0 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.0
Imports % y/y -0.6 -6.6 7.8 7.0 -4.1 -3.7 -13.8 -4.6 2.5 2.6 16.4 10.4 8.2 7.7 6.8 5.5
% q/q -4.1 2.2 -9.8 8.0 3.0 2.3 2.3 2.4 1.0 1.8 1.4 1.2
Net Exports1 % y/y -0.2 -1.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -3.1 -0.3 -1.4 -1.3 2.2 -0.8 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2
% q/q -0.2 -3.2 2.9 -0.7 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1
Stockbuilding1 % y/y 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2
% q/q -0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Current Account Balance JPY trn 20.5 16.0 14.8 13.6 5.8 1.4 5.3 3.6 5.5 1.1 5.0 3.3 5.2 0.8 4.7 3.0
% of GDP 3.7 3.0 2.7 2.5
Industrial Production 2 % y/y -2.7 -10.5 7.8 3.7 -4.3 -20.5 -12.6 -4.3 -2.6 19.0 10.6 6.2 5.0 3.9 3.4 2.6
% q/q 0.4 -16.9 8.8 5.5 2.1 1.6 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.4
Unemployment Rate 2 % 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5
CPI 2 % y/y 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6
General Govt. Balance % of GDP -3.6 -11.0 -6.0 -5.0
General Govt. Debt % of GDP 199 220 218 222
1 2
Contribution to GDP growth Period averages

4
Holger Schmieding Kallum Pickering
Chief Economist Senior Economist
holger.schmieding@berenberg.com kallum.pickering@berenberg.com
+44 20 3207 7889 +44 20 3465 2672

UK: upswing reverses amid new lockdown

Key drivers of forecast UK: Real GDP recovering from a record slump
● Lockdown 2.0: The new lockdown will cause a significant 105
contraction in Q4. We expect another strong rebound Real GDP
once the restrictions can be eased again 100
8.6%
• Partial offset from fiscal policy: Aggressive government 95
support has so far prevented any serious rise in -25.6%
bankruptcies and unemployment; however, as recent 90
measures are far less aggressive than the initial response, -7.0%
the damage may become more visible soon 85

• Bank of England (BoE) set for further easing: We expect

80
the BoE to add a further £100bn to its asset purchase
programme in November in order to extend net-
75
purchases into 2021. Negative rates are unlikely, but not 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
impossible
Monthly data. 2016=100. Source: ONS. Data up to 2020 data show
Risks: Tilted to the downside in the near term three-month moving average
Berenberg versus consensus
• Downside risk 1: A disorderly hard exit from the EU single
market (10% risk) at the end of 2020 could tip the economy 2020 2021
back into recession Ber Cons Gap Ber Cons Gap
GDP -11.9 -11.0 -0.9 6.5 5.2 1.3
• Downside risk 2: If the four week lockdown does not Inflation 0.9 0.9 0.0 1.2 1.4 -0.2
flatten the current spike in virus cases it could be extended Unemployment 4.7 4.7 0.0 6.7 6.9 -0.2
past 2 December, thus prolonging the ongoing downturn Fiscal balance -13.5 -16.1 2.6 -6.0 -8.5 2.5

Bloomberg consensus, taken on 20 November 2020. Numbers may not

add up due to rounding

2019 2020 2021 2022 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22
GDP % y/y 1.3 -11.9 6.5 3.9 -2.1 -21.5 -9.6 -14.6 -7.9 19.3 5.3 12.3 7.4 3.9 2.4 2.0
% q/q -2.5 -19.8 15.5 -5.4 5.2 3.9 1.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4
%q/q ann. -9.7 -58.7 78.0 -20.1 22.3 16.6 7.8 3.4 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.6
Private Consumption % y/y 0.9 -15.1 5.5 4.9 -2.9 -26.2 -13.1 -18.5 -11.7 20.3 4.9 13.3 8.7 5.3 3.1 2.6
% q/q -3.0 -23.7 17.9 -6.5 5.0 4.0 2.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5
Government Consumption % y/y 4.1 -9.2 9.9 2.4 -1.8 -17.8 -10.9 -6.3 0.6 20.1 13.1 7.3 4.4 2.6 1.4 1.2
% q/q -3.9 -14.6 7.8 6.0 3.1 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Investment % y/y 1.5 -14.0 7.7 7.6 -2.3 -22.6 -12.2 -19.1 -13.4 20.4 7.4 21.9 15.9 7.2 5.2 3.2
% q/q -1.0 -21.6 15.1 -9.5 6.0 9.0 2.7 2.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Final Domestic Demand 1 % y/y 1.6 -13.8 6.8 4.9 -2.6 -24.0 -12.5 -16.3 -9.7 20.3 6.9 13.4 9.0 5.1 3.2 2.5
% q/q -2.8 -21.6 15.3 -4.6 4.8 4.4 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
Exports % y/y 2.8 -12.0 9.2 2.8 -6.1 -14.8 -15.0 -12.2 3.2 17.1 11.4 6.1 2.0 2.0 3.0 4.1
% q/q -10.7 -11.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Imports % y/y 3.3 -20.1 12.0 5.9 -16.4 -28.5 -20.3 -15.8 -2.6 28.6 15.8 10.3 6.6 5.9 5.3 5.7
% q/q -9.2 -22.7 13.2 6.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
Net Exports 2 % y/y -0.2 2.8 -0.7 -0.9 3.9 4.5 1.7 1.1 1.7 -2.6 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5
% q/q -0.5 3.6 -2.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Stockbuilding 1 % y/y 0.1 -0.8 -0.8 -16.6 -1.4 -0.3 1.7 -0.5 0.3 1.0 -0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
% q/q -0.5 -0.7 1.6 -0.7 0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Current Account Balance GBP bn -95.3 -58.9 -129.9 -141.9 -20.8 -2.8 -14.6 -20.8 -25.6 -32.1 -35.3 -36.9 -37.6 -38.3 -39.0 -39.7
% of GDP -4.3 -2.9 -5.9 -6.1 -3.7 -0.6 -2.7 -4.3 -5.0 -5.6 -6.2 -6.8 -6.7 -6.3 -6.6 -7.0
Industrial Production 2 % y/y -1.2 -8.6 5.2 2.0 -4.2 -18.7 -6.6 -4.9 -1.9 17.9 3.8 2.8 2.2 1.9 1.8 2.1
% q/q -2.0 -16.3 14.3 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.9
Unemployment Rate 2 % 3.8 4.7 6.7 5.2 4.0 4.2 4.8 5.7 6.6 7.3 6.8 6.2 5.7 5.4 5.0 4.7
CPI 2 % y/y 1.8 0.9 1.2 2.0 1.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.7 2.3
General Govt. Balance 3 % of GDP -1.6 -13.5 -6.0 -3.0
General Govt Debt 3 % of GDP 86.1 106.7 104.9 102.1
BoE Bank Rate 4 0.75 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
1
Contribution to GDP growth 2 Period averages 3 Maastricht basis 4 End period

5
Holger Schmieding Florian Hense
Chief Economist European Economist
holger.schmieding@berenberg.com florian.hense@berenberg.com
+44 20 3207 7889 +44 20 3207 7859

Eurozone: new contraction in late 2020, strong rebound 2021

Key drivers of forecast Virus trends: Second wave in Europe
● Worst short-term contraction in peacetime: In March 60
US
and April, the economy probably contracted by a
Eurozone
cumulative 30%, the worst peacetime plunge on record 50
UK
● Snap-back over, temporary contraction: After snapping
40
back sharply through the summer, gains in activity are
slowing into winter. The record surge in virus cases and
30
the measures to contain it will likely push the region into
a temporary but serious contraction in late 2020, followed
20
by a new rebound once restrictions are eased again
● Uneven rebound: Manufacturing benefits from solid US 10
and Chinese demand. However, consumer-orientated
services will lag behind until the pandemic is over for 0
1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov
good. Public investment will to add to demand in 2021.
We expect GDP to return to its late-2019 level in mid-2022 New confirmed cases per million people, per day, seven-day average..
Source: Johns Hopkins University.
● Policy outlook: Monetary, fiscal and regulatory policies
are providing a major stimulus. The unprecedented
economic policy response can contain the risk of a Berenberg versus consensus
financial crisis and support a rebound once the second 2020 2021
wave has subsided Ber Cons Gap Ber Cons Gap
GDP -7.4 -7.3 -0.1 5.0 4.8 0.2
Risks: Titled to the downside in the near term amid a surge in
Inflation 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.8 0.9 -0.1
virus cases. Harsher national lockdowns that go beyond the Unemployment 7.9 8.0 -0.1 8.5 9.0 -0.5
current restrictions could deepen and extend the late 2020 Fiscal balance -11.5 -9.5 -2.1 -6.5 -5.5 -1.0
contraction.
Bloomberg consensus, taken on 20 November 2020. Numbers may not
add up due to rounding

2019 2020 2021 2022 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22
GDP % y/y 1.3 -7.4 5.0 3.2 -3.3 -14.8 -4.4 -7.3 -2.6 14.3 2.7 6.6 5.9 2.8 2.3 2.1
% q/q -3.7 -11.8 12.6 -3.0 1.2 3.5 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
%q/q ann. -14.1 -39.5 60.5 -11.5 4.8 14.8 4.3 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0
Private Consumption % y/y 1.4 -8.5 5.1 4.0 -3.9 -16.0 -4.7 -9.6 -3.9 14.7 2.4 8.5 7.7 3.5 2.5 2.4
% q/q -4.5 -12.4 13.8 -5.0 1.4 4.6 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Government Consumption % y/y 1.8 -0.8 1.9 1.9 0.6 -2.4 -0.3 -1.1 0.3 3.5 1.3 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7
% q/q -0.8 -2.5 2.7 -0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Investment % y/y 4.5 -8.8 3.5 4.0 1.3 -17.2 -5.6 -13.4 -7.8 15.1 2.3 6.4 6.2 3.4 3.3 3.2
% q/q -5.1 -17.1 13.5 -3.0 1.0 3.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Final Domestic Demand 1 % y/y 2.0 -6.7 3.8 3.4 -1.7 -12.8 -3.8 -8.4 -3.7 11.7 2.0 6.3 5.8 3.0 2.4 2.3
% q/q -3.7 -10.9 10.7 -3.4 1.1 3.3 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
Exports % y/y 2.5 -10.3 8.9 3.9 -3.1 -21.4 -9.3 -7.5 -2.0 24.4 8.6 7.4 6.1 3.8 3.0 2.6
% q/q -3.8 -18.8 16.1 2.0 2.0 3.0 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5
Imports % y/y 3.3 -9.2 7.1 4.6 0.3 -19.1 -8.3 -9.4 -4.8 20.0 7.8 7.8 6.8 4.6 3.8 3.4
% q/q -2.9 -18.3 13.1 1.0 2.0 3.0 1.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7
Net Exports 1 % y/y -0.3 -0.9 1.1 -0.2 -1.6 -1.9 -0.9 0.6 1.3 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
% q/q -0.5 -0.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Stockbuilding 1 % y/y -0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
% q/q 0.6 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Current Account Balance EUR bn 280 216 192 168 51 43 63 58 45 37 57 52 39 31 51 46
% of GDP 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.4
Industrial Production 2 % y/y -1.3 -9.7 7.1 3.6 -5.7 -20.1 -6.5 -6.5 -2.8 20.7 5.1 7.4 7.2 3.1 2.3 2.1
% q/q -3.3 -15.7 16.3 -1.4 0.7 4.6 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Unemployment Rate 2 % 7.6 7.9 8.5 8.0 7.3 7.6 8.2 8.5 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.7
CPI 2 % y/y 1.2 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
General Govt. Balance % of GDP -0.6 -11.5 -6.5 -3.5
General Govt. Debt % of GDP 84.0 102.3 102.8 101.5
ECB main refinancing rate 3 % 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1
Contribution to GDP growth 2 Period averages 3 End of period

6
Holger Schmieding Florian Hense
Chief Economist European Economist
holger.schmieding@berenberg.com florian.hense@berenberg.com
+44 20 3207 7889 +44 20 3207 7859

Germany: stagnation in late 2020, strong growth in 2021

Key drivers of forecast Germany: the unbalanced rebound
● Serious disruption: The coronavirus pandemic caused the 110

economy to contract strongly in March and April 105

100
● Rebound underway: As lockdowns were eased, activity
started to recover in May. After a fast rebound in retail 95

sales, industry and exports are turning into the new 90

drivers of the recovery. Germany benefits more from that 85
than more service-orientated economies. The new Retail sales
80
measures to contain the spread of the virus will likely Manufacturing orders
75
push the economy into stagnation in late 2020 Industrial output
70
● Not quite a V: It will take until early 2022 for GDP to 65
return to its pre-coronavirus level
60
2019-Jan 2019-May 2019-Sep 2020-Jan 2020-May 2020-Sep
● Germany is weathering the pandemic less badly than
most other countries. Because it responded early to the Q1 2019 = 100. Monthly data. Source: Destatis, BMWi.
risks, its lockdowns were less harsh and shorter than in Berenberg versus consensus
many other countries. Germany granted itself a bigger
fiscal policy response. In H2 2020 it has so far benefitted 2020 2021
from its industrial prowess and strong export demand Ber Cons Gap Ber Cons Gap
GDP -5.5 -5.7 0.2 4.3 3.9 0.4
● Inflation subdued: Low oil prices, the VAT cut in H2 and Inflation 0.4 0.5 -0.1 1.3 1.3 0.0
soft underlying price pressures keep inflation subdued Unemployment 4.2 6.0 n/a 4.6 6.2 n/a
Fiscal balance -9.0 -7.3 -1.7 -4.5 -3.5 -1.0
Risks: Largely balanced. The second wave of the pandemic
interrupts the upswing near-term. But the big stimulus Bloomberg consensus, taken on 20 November 2020. Numbers may not
add up due to rounding
creates upside potential for 2021. Joe Biden will unlikely
restrain the pace of the post-pandemic upswing as Trump
would have done during a second term

2019 2020 2021 2022 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22
GDP 1 % y/y 0.6 -5.5 4.3 2.6 -2.1 -11.2 -4.3 -4.2 -1.4 11.1 3.6 4.3 3.8 2.6 2.2 1.8
% q/q -1.9 -9.8 8.2 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
%q/q ann. -7.4 -33.8 37.0 0.1 4.2 6.7 3.6 2.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.5
Private Consumption % y/y 1.6 -6.2 3.7 3.1 -2.3 -12.9 -4.3 -5.3 -2.5 11.6 2.3 4.2 4.6 3.1 2.6 2.2
% q/q -2.5 -10.9 10.2 -1.0 0.3 2.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
Government Consumption % y/y 2.7 3.1 1.1 1.1 2.6 3.8 3.1 2.9 2.4 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2
% q/q 0.6 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Investment % y/y 2.6 -5.5 2.5 3.8 -1.1 -8.6 -6.3 -6.0 -4.5 5.6 4.2 5.2 4.9 3.9 3.4 3.0
% q/q -0.5 -7.9 2.5 0.0 1.2 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6
Final Domestic Demand 2 % y/y 1.9 -3.8 2.7 2.7 -0.9 -7.9 -3.0 -3.5 -1.8 7.5 2.2 3.4 3.6 2.7 2.4 2.1
% q/q -1.3 -7.2 6.0 -0.5 0.4 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4
Exports % y/y 1.0 -10.8 12.1 4.2 -3.9 -22.2 -11.6 -5.9 0.7 29.2 13.8 8.2 5.5 4.2 3.8 3.6
% q/q -3.3 -20.3 15.0 6.2 3.5 2.2 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Imports % y/y 2.6 -7.9 9.7 4.8 -2.0 -17.4 -8.3 -4.0 0.3 22.0 11.4 7.2 5.8 4.7 4.4 4.3
% q/q -1.9 -16.0 11.0 5.0 2.5 2.1 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0
Net Exports 2 % y/y -0.6 -1.9 1.5 0.0 -1.0 -3.2 -2.1 -1.1 0.2 3.6 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
% q/q -0.8 -2.9 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stockbuilding 2 % y/y -0.7 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
% q/q 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Current Account Balance EUR bn 250 228 216 204 63 37 66 62 60 34 63 59 57 31 60 56
% of GDP 7.3 6.9 6.2 5.6 7.4 4.9 7.8 7.3 7.1 4.0 7.1 6.5 6.4 3.5 6.5 6.0
Industrial Production 3 % y/y -4.3 -11.7 7.9 4.1 -6.4 -21.7 -10.0 -8.8 -5.7 21.4 8.8 9.6 8.7 3.8 2.2 2.1
% q/q -2.0 -18.2 13.8 0.0 1.3 5.3 2.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Unemployment Rate 4 % 3.1 4.2 4.6 3.6 3.6 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3
CPI 5 % y/y 1.4 0.4 1.3 1.3 1.6 0.7 -0.2 -0.3 0.7 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5
General Govt. Balance % of GDP 1.5 -9.0 -4.5 -2.5
General Govt. Debt % of GDP 59.6 71.2 72.0 71.0
1
Calendar-adjusted 2 Contribution to GDP growth 3 Ex construction, s.a., period averages 4 ILO measure, period averages, s.a.
5
EU-harmonised, period averages

7
Holger Schmieding Florian Hense
Chief Economist European Economist
holger.schmieding@berenberg.com florian.hense@berenberg.com
+44 20 3207 7889 +44 20 3207 7859

France: new virus shock after rapid Q3 rebound

Key drivers of forecast Rebound in French consumption
● Coronavirus: Lockdown measures were among the most 5

stringent in Europe. A sharp rebound in household 0

consumption from May onwards moderated the Q2
damage and drove a healthy Q3 rebound. The new -5

lockdown will cause a significant contraction in Q4. We -10

expect another strong rebound once the restrictions can
-15
be eased again
-20
● Reforms pay off: President Macron has pushed through
reforms to the labour market, SNCF, the public sector, -25
unemployment insurance and the education system. The French household consumption
-30
first results have been encouraging. More new businesses
started up in France than in Germany in 2018 and 2019. -35
2019-Jan 2019-May 2019-Sep 2020-Jan 2020-May 2020-Sep
● A crucial test: The way Macron responds to the virus
Monthly data, yoy changes in %. Source: INSEE.
emergency could bolster or damage his ability to pursue
further reforms once the medical emergency is over Berenberg versus consensus
● A golden decade after the corona recession? If Macron 2020 2021
implements further serious supply-side reforms once the Ber Cons Gap Ber Cons Gap
pandemic is over, France could remain on track to enjoy a GDP -9.5 -9.4 -0.1 6.7 6.2 0.5
golden decade of growth from 2021 onwards. If so, France Inflation 0.4 0.5 -0.1 0.8 0.8 0.0
Unemployment 8.0 8.3 -0.3 8.7 10.0 -1.3
could eventually overtake Germany as Europe’s growth
Fiscal balance -11.0 -11.3 0.3 -7.0 -6.9 -0.1
engine. But whether Macron can deliver further reforms is
an open question. For now, momentum has stalled Bloomberg consensus, taken on 20 November 2020. Numbers may not
add up due to rounding
Risks: Tilted to downside near-term amid high infection levels
2019 2020 2021 2022 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22
GDP % y/y 1.5 -9.5 6.7 3.9 -5.8 -18.9 -4.3 -8.9 -1.5 19.4 2.3 8.5 7.5 3.4 2.6 2.3
% q/q -5.9 -13.7 18.2 -5.0 1.6 4.6 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5
%q/q ann. -21.7 -44.6 95.4 -18.5 6.6 19.8 5.2 3.3 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0
Private Consumption % y/y 1.5 -8.0 5.9 4.1 -4.8 -16.4 -1.9 -9.0 -1.6 17.2 0.5 9.0 7.8 3.3 2.9 2.6
% q/q -5.8 -11.9 17.8 -7.0 1.9 5.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
Government Consumption % y/y 1.7 -4.2 5.7 2.1 -1.9 -12.5 0.4 -3.0 2.3 15.9 1.0 4.7 3.0 1.9 1.7 1.6
% q/q -3.3 -10.4 15.4 -3.0 2.0 1.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Investment % y/y 4.3 -11.9 7.8 5.2 -7.9 -22.1 -5.1 -12.4 -0.3 22.7 1.0 10.3 9.2 4.5 3.8 3.6
% q/q -10.4 -14.3 23.3 -7.5 2.0 5.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8
Final Domestic Demand 1 % y/y 2.2 -8.2 6.4 3.9 -4.9 -17.0 -2.1 -8.6 -0.4 18.8 0.8 8.5 7.1 3.3 2.9 2.6
% q/q -6.4 -12.3 19.1 -6.4 2.0 4.4 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
Exports % y/y 1.8 -16.0 13.2 3.8 -8.3 -31.5 -15.2 -8.9 0.4 37.6 13.5 7.6 5.4 4.2 3.2 2.7
% q/q -6.6 -25.7 23.2 6.5 3.0 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5
Imports % y/y 2.6 -11.0 9.8 3.9 -5.8 -21.9 -9.9 -6.5 2.1 24.6 8.5 6.4 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.5
% q/q -5.7 -17.1 16.0 3.0 3.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8
Net Exports 1 % y/y -0.3 -1.4 0.7 -0.1 -0.7 -2.7 -1.5 -0.7 -0.6 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.4
% q/q -0.2 -2.3 1.1 0.9 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Stockbuilding 1 % y/y -0.4 0.1 -0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.9 -0.9 0.1 -0.9 -1.6 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
% q/q 0.6 0.9 -1.9 0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Current Account Balance EUR bn -16.2 -44.5 -32.5 -32.1 -8.9 -18.9 -16.0 -0.8 -5.9 -15.9 -13.0 2.2 -4.9 -15.9 -13.3 1.9
% of GDP -0.7 -2.0 -1.4 -1.3
Industrial Production 2 % y/y 0.5 -11.2 7.9 3.4 -7.3 -23.3 -6.9 -7.2 -1.2 24.2 4.8 6.5 6.9 2.9 2.1 2.1
% q/q -5.8 -17.0 20.1 -1.1 0.2 4.4 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Unemployment Rate 2 % 8.5 8.0 8.7 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.5 8.9 9.2 8.9 8.6 8.3 8.0 7.7 7.4 7.1
CPI 2 % y/y 1.3 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.4 -0.2 0.0 1.0 0.8 1.3 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.6
General Govt. Balance % of GDP -3.0 -11.0 -7.0 -3.5
General Govt. Debt % of GDP 98.1 117.4 116.6 118.6
1
Contribution to GDP growth 2 Period averages

8
Holger Schmieding Florian Hense
Chief Economist European Economist
holger.schmieding@berenberg.com florian.hense@berenberg.com
+44 20 3207 7889 +44 20 3207 7859

Italy: recovery interrupted

Key drivers of forecast
Italy lagging behind on trend
• Coronavirus: Italy suffered its worst recession in peacetime 150
during H1. In Q2 2020, activity fell to levels last seen in the Germany
early 1990s 140
Italy
• Significant rebound: Activity recovered at a solid pace since 130
lockdowns were eased. Although the renewed rise in
infections will cause GDP to contract again in Q4, the second 120
wave is still shallower than in France and Spain
110
• Fiscal policy: Brussels has given Italy the green light to do
what it takes to contain the pandemic. Italy will be a major
100
beneficiary of the common EU/Eurozone fiscal response to
the crisis. The ECB and EU reaction has brought Italy’s yield
90
spread down to a very favourable level 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019

• Political risks cloud the outlook: While the pandemic has Real GDP, indexed at 1991Q1=100. Sources: Destatis, Istat
stabilised the fragile centre-left coalition for a while, long-
Berenberg versus consensus
term political risks remain high. Anti-EU sentiment
increased in response to a perceived lack of European 2020 2021
solidarity when the virus struck in March. Whether the EU’s Ber Cons Gap Ber Cons Gap
€750bn recovery fund will change that remains to be seen GDP -9.1 -9.0 -0.1 6.0 5.4 0.6
Inflation -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.1
• Italy needs serious pro-growth reforms much more than Unemployment 9.4 9.5 -0.1 10.5 11.4 -0.8
money. The current or any conceivable coalition, however, Fiscal balance -13.5 -11.5 -2.0 -6.0 -6.5 0.5
look unlikely to implement such reforms Bloomberg consensus, taken on 20 November 2020. Numbers may not
Risks: Tilted down near-term as infection rates have risen. add up due to rounding
The pandemic also adds to deep-seated structural problems

2019 2020 2021 2022 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22
GDP % y/y 0.3 -9.1 6.0 3.1 -5.6 -17.9 -4.7 -8.3 -1.4 17.4 2.4 7.2 6.0 2.7 1.8 1.8
% q/q -5.5 -13.0 16.1 -4.0 1.6 3.6 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
%q/q ann. -20.2 -42.7 81.9 -15.0 6.4 15.4 5.4 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7
Private Consumption % y/y 0.5 -9.8 5.5 3.3 -6.5 -17.3 -5.1 -10.2 -2.4 15.6 1.9 8.4 7.4 2.7 1.7 1.6
% q/q -6.8 -11.4 15.0 -5.5 1.3 5.0 1.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Government Consumption % y/y -0.2 0.2 1.9 0.8 -1.1 -0.9 1.1 1.5 2.9 2.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
% q/q -1.1 0.3 2.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Investment % y/y 1.6 -13.4 6.5 5.1 -7.4 -22.6 -9.6 -13.9 -4.9 19.0 3.8 10.3 9.3 4.8 3.4 3.1
% q/q -7.7 -16.2 17.0 -5.0 2.0 5.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7
Final Domestic Demand
1 % y/y 0.5 -8.4 4.9 3.0 -5.5 -14.8 -4.6 -8.5 -1.8 13.4 2.0 7.0 6.2 2.6 1.8 1.7
% q/q -5.7 -9.7 12.5 -4.1 1.2 3.9 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Exports % y/y 1.3 -16.7 13.8 4.1 -7.4 -33.0 -15.6 -10.6 0.5 39.2 13.1 8.9 5.7 4.4 3.4 2.8
% q/q -7.5 -26.4 25.0 5.0 4.0 2.0 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5
Imports % y/y -0.4 -14.8 10.5 4.4 -6.0 -26.9 -16.0 -10.1 -2.1 26.9 11.8 8.9 6.8 4.4 3.6 2.8
% q/q -5.3 -20.6 15.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5
Net Exports
1 % y/y 0.5 -1.0 1.1 0.0 -0.6 -2.7 -0.2 -0.5 0.8 3.2 0.6 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
% q/q -0.8 -2.2 2.6 0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stockbuilding
1 % y/y -0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 -0.5 0.3 0.8 -0.3 0.8 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% q/q 1.1 -1.1 1.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Current Account Balance EUR bn 53.4 57.0 55.9 54.7 7.4 5.3 23.9 20.5 7.2 5.0 23.6 20.2 6.9 4.7 23.3 19.9
% of GDP 3.0 3.5 3.2 3.1
Industrial Production
2 % y/y -1.1 -11.8 8.9 2.9 -11.1 -25.9 -4.3 -5.6 3.3 29.4 1.5 5.4 6.0 2.2 1.8 1.6
% q/q -8.9 -16.8 28.6 -3.2 -0.2 4.1 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Unemployment Rate
2 % 9.9 9.4 10.5 9.7 9.1 8.4 9.7 10.3 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.0 9.8 9.6 9.5
CPI
2 % y/y 0.6 -0.2 0.5 1.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5
General Govt. Balance % of GDP -1.6 -13.5 -6.0 -3.5
General Govt. Debt % of GDP 134.7 161.1 157.2 158.8
1 2
Contribution to GDP growth Period averages

9
Holger Schmieding Florian Hense
Chief Economist European Economist
holger.schmieding@berenberg.com florian.hense@berenberg.com
+44 20 3207 7889 +44 20 3207 7859

Spain: second-wave risks

Key drivers of forecast Spain is not the worst: Surge in Sars-CoV-2 infections
● Coronavirus: The hit to private consumption, investment 160
and exports during H1 was unprecedented, and bigger than Germany France
140
for all other major Eurozone economies Italy Spain
120
● The second wave of infections hit Spain earlier than other Netherlands Belgium
European countries. The economy will probably contract in 100
Q4. Once restrictions can be eased again, output is likely to Austria Ireland
80
rebound strongly, as it had done in Q3 2020.
60
● Fiscal response: Spain is injecting a significant fiscal
stimulus to counteract the economic fallout from the virus 40
pandemic. Spain will be one of the main beneficiaries of
20
the common EU/Eurozone fiscal response
0
● Reform reversals? The left-wing coalition (Socialists with 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov
Podemos) has reversed some labour markets reforms. With
luck, the EU will prevent further reform reversals by New confirmed cases per million people. Source: Johns Hopkins
University.
imposing conditions on its hand-outs to Spain from the
€750bn fund Berenberg versus consensus
Risks: Tilted further to the downside in the near term amid 2020 2021
elevated levels of infection Ber Cons Gap Ber Cons Gap
GDP -12.0 -11.7 -0.3 7.1 6.0 1.1
Inflation -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.6 0.7 -0.1
Unemployment 15.7 16.0 -0.2 16.4 17.7 -1.3
Fiscal balance -13.5 -12.2 -1.3 -7.0 -7.5 0.5

Bloomberg consensus, taken on 20 November 2020. Numbers may not

add up due to rounding

2019 2020 2021 2022 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22
GDP % y/y 2.0 -12.0 7.1 6.2 -4.2 -21.5 -8.7 -13.7 -7.2 19.3 6.1 12.8 11.8 6.7 3.6 3.3
% q/q -5.2 -17.8 16.7 -5.0 1.9 5.7 3.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8
%q/q ann. -19.4 -54.3 85.5 -18.7 7.8 24.7 15.9 4.1 3.9 3.2 3.1 3.1
Private Consumption % y/y 0.9 -14.5 7.4 7.6 -6.1 -24.7 -10.2 -17.0 -9.3 21.4 5.5 15.5 14.6 8.2 4.5 4.0
% q/q -6.7 -20.0 20.2 -7.5 2.0 7.0 4.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8
Government Consumption % y/y 2.3 3.4 1.0 1.1 3.7 3.1 3.7 2.9 1.8 1.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.7
% q/q 1.3 0.3 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5
Investment % y/y 2.7 -15.0 7.9 8.4 -5.1 -25.8 -11.9 -17.3 -10.5 22.9 6.6 16.9 15.2 8.9 5.7 4.7
% q/q -4.8 -22.1 19.9 -7.0 3.0 7.0 4.0 2.0 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.0
Final Domestic Demand
1 % y/y 1.5 -10.6 5.8 6.1 -3.8 -18.5 -7.5 -12.5 -6.9 16.3 4.4 11.7 11.0 6.4 3.9 3.5
% q/q -4.5 -15.5 15.0 -5.5 1.7 5.2 3.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7
Exports % y/y 2.3 -18.9 17.4 8.1 -5.6 -38.1 -17.0 0.0 -5.1 51.1 18.1 16.9 14.7 9.3 5.1 4.1
% q/q -7.4 -33.4 34.3 3.0 3.0 6.0 5.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Imports % y/y 0.7 -16.9 14.7 8.9 -5.4 -33.5 -15.7 -13.1 -4.9 41.7 14.7 15.5 13.9 9.9 7.0 5.2
% q/q -5.8 -29.5 28.4 2.0 3.0 5.0 4.0 2.7 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.0
Net Exports
1 % y/y 0.6 -1.3 1.2 0.0 -0.3 -2.9 -1.0 -1.1 -0.2 3.1 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 -0.4 -0.2
% q/q -0.8 -2.3 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Stockbuilding
1 % y/y -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
% q/q 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Current Account Balance EUR bn 26.6 11.7 9.3 6.9 -0.8 1.4 3.7 7.4 -1.4 0.8 3.1 6.8 -2.0 0.2 2.5 6.2
% of GDP 2.1 1.1 0.8 0.6
Industrial Production
2 % y/y 0.7 -10.5 8.7 3.3 -6.3 -24.3 -5.0 -6.0 0.0 28.1 3.6 6.6 6.4 2.7 2.1 2.1
% q/q -5.4 -18.6 25.1 -2.3 0.6 4.2 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Unemployment Rate
2 % 14.1 15.7 16.4 15.0 13.9 15.5 16.6 16.9 17.0 16.6 16.1 15.7 15.4 15.1 14.8 14.5
CPI 2 % y/y 0.8 -0.4 0.6 1.3 0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.9 -0.6 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4
General Govt. Balance % of GDP -2.4 -13.5 -7.0 -4.0
General Govt. Debt % of GDP 95.5 121.6 119.7 115.0
1 2
Contribution to GDP growth Period averages

10
Holger Schmieding Florian Hense
Chief Economist European Economist
holger.schmieding@berenberg.com florian.hense@berenberg.com
+44 20 3207 7889 +44 20 3207 7859

Portugal: rebound interrupted

Key drivers of forecast
Major hit after a successful external adjustment
● Coronavirus: After an unprecedented hit to private 22
consumption, investment and exports during H1, Portugal
20
rebounded fast in Q3
Imports Exports
● The second wave: Although Portugal is less affected than 18

France and Spain, new measures to contain the second

16
wave of infections will likely push Portugal into a renewed
contraction of output in Q4, followed by a rebound in 2021 14
once the pandemic subside again
12
● Fiscal response: Because Portugal met fiscal targets in
recent years, it has more room than most other countries 10
for a significant fiscal stimulus
8
● Politics: The leftist minority government remains stable 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
for the time being Real exports and imports of goods and services, chained 2010 prices,
4-quarter rolling sum in billions of euros. Source: Eurostat
Risks: Tilted to the downside in the near term as infections
have risen Berenberg versus consensus
2020 2021
Ber Cons Gap Ber Cons Gap
GDP -8.5 -8.9 0.3 5.9 5.0 0.9
Inflation -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.5 -0.1
Unemployment 5.9 7.7 -1.8 8.4 8.4 0.0
Fiscal balance -10.5 -8.0 -2.5 -5.5 -3.9 -1.6

Bloomberg consensus, taken on 20 November 2020. Numbers may not

add up due to rounding

2019 2020 2021 2022 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22
GDP % y/y 2.2 -8.5 5.9 3.7 -2.3 -16.3 -5.7 -9.7 -4.4 16.7 4.2 8.7 7.5 2.8 2.3 2.2
% q/q -3.9 -13.9 13.2 -3.6 1.7 5.1 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
%q/q ann. -14.7 -44.9 64.1 -13.6 7.1 22.2 4.2 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.9
Private Consumption % y/y 2.4 -7.9 4.7 4.1 -1.1 -14.7 -4.8 -10.8 -6.5 14.3 2.6 10.1 8.7 3.1 2.6 2.2
% q/q -2.7 -13.3 12.5 -6.0 2.0 6.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
Government Consumption % y/y 0.7 -0.9 2.2 1.6 0.5 -3.4 0.0 -0.8 0.8 4.9 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
% q/q -1.1 -3.6 4.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Investment % y/y 5.4 -5.5 2.4 4.0 -0.3 -9.0 -5.0 -7.6 -6.5 6.8 3.5 6.6 6.0 3.8 3.4 3.0
% q/q 0.4 -9.8 4.2 -2.0 1.5 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6
Final Domestic Demand 1 % y/y 2.6 -6.2 3.9 3.6 -0.7 -11.6 -4.0 -8.4 -5.3 11.7 2.6 7.9 6.9 3.0 2.6 2.2
% q/q -1.8 -11.1 9.8 -4.3 1.6 4.4 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
Exports % y/y 3.5 -20.7 14.7 7.8 -4.8 -39.2 -20.4 -18.6 -10.7 49.0 19.2 14.7 13.3 8.5 5.5 4.6
% q/q -6.6 -36.8 30.0 6.0 2.5 5.5 4.0 2.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1
Imports % y/y 4.7 -16.3 9.2 7.9 -2.0 -29.4 -18.3 -15.8 -12.4 29.1 14.4 12.8 12.0 9.0 6.2 4.7
% q/q -2.0 -29.4 17.0 4.0 2.0 4.0 3.7 2.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0
Net Exports 1 % y/y -0.4 -2.0 1.9 0.0 -1.2 -4.4 -0.8 -1.4 0.8 4.9 1.6 0.7 0.5 -0.1 -0.3 0.0
% q/q -2.0 -2.9 3.3 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stockbuilding 1 % y/y 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
% q/q 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Current Account Balance EUR bn -0.2 -1.7 -2.9 -4.1 0.0 -0.8 -0.9 -0.1 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -0.2 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1
% of GDP -0.1 -0.9 -1.4 -1.9
Industrial Production 2 % y/y -1.2 -7.1 8.3 2.8 -1.4 -23.7 -0.4 -2.8 -0.3 31.9 2.4 4.4 4.8 2.2 2.1 2.1
% q/q -2.4 -22.1 29.6 -1.4 0.1 3.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Unemployment Rate 2 % 6.6 5.9 8.4 7.0 0.0 6.5 7.9 9.3 9.0 8.6 8.1 7.8 7.5 7.2 6.7 6.4
CPI 2 % y/y 0.3 -0.1 0.4 1.3 0.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 0.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
General Govt. Balance % of GDP 0.1 -10.5 -5.5 -3.0
General Govt. Debt % of GDP 117.2 137.0 134.2 130.8
1 2
Contribution to GDP growth Period averages

11
FORECASTS AT A GLANCE
Economics

Forecast changes
Japanese GDP: We have revised up our Japan 2020 real GDP forecast to a decline of 5.3% from a decline of 5.8% because of
the stronger-than-expected growth in Q3. We now expect a stronger rebound in growth once the pandemic begins to ebb
because of Japan’s large fiscal stimulus.

Berenberg compared with consensus

GDP Inflation Unemployment Fiscal balance
2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
US 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 n/a n/a
China 0.7 1.0 -0.2 -0.8 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.8
Japan 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 1.5
UK -0.9 1.3 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 2.6 2.5
Eurozone -0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -2.1 -1.0
Germany 0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.0 n/a n/a -1.7 -1.0
France -0.1 0.5 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -1.3 0.3 -0.1
Italy -0.1 0.6 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.8 -2.0 0.5
Spain -0.3 1.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -1.3 -1.3 0.5
Portugal 0.3 0.9 -0.1 -0.1 -1.8 -1.6 -2.5 -1.6

The table shows the difference between Berenberg forecasts and Bloomberg consensus. The bars show graphically whether Berenberg forecasts are stronger
(green) or weaker (red) than consensus. Bloomberg consensus is taken on 20 November 2020. Berenberg’s German unemployment forecasts are based on the
ILO measure, which is not comparable to consensus figures that are based on the national unemployment definition. Source: Bloomberg, Berenberg

Key financial forecasts

Current1 End-2020 Mid-2021 End-2021 End-2022
Central bank rates
US Fed 0.00-0.25% 0.00-0.25% 0.00-0.25% 0.00-0.25% 0.00-0.25%
ECB refi rate 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
ECB deposit rate -0.50% -0.50% -0.50% -0.50% -0.50%
BoE 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
BoJ -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% -0.10%

10-year bond yields

US 0.84% 1.00% 1.25% 1.40% 1.80%
Germany -0.58% -0.40% -0.20% 0.00% 0.40%
UK 0.32% 0.40% 0.60% 0.70% 1.10%

Currencies
EUR-USD 1.19 1.20 1.22 1.23 1.25
EUR-GBP 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.88 0.88
GBP-USD 1.33 1.33 1.36 1.40 1.42
USD-JPY 104 104 104 104 104
EUR-JPY 123 125 127 128 130
EUR-CHF 1.08 1.08 1.10 1.11 1.12
USD-CNY 6.57 7.10 7.10 7.10 7.10
1
Taken on 20 November at 11:30 UK time. Currency forecasts may not add up due to rounding

Forecasts for US, China and Japan supplied by Berenberg Capital Markets

12
FORECASTS AT A GLANCE
Economics

Disclaimer

This document was compiled by the above mentioned authors of the economics department of Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG
(hereinafter referred to as “the Bank”). The Bank has made any effort to carefully research and process all information. The information
has been obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable such as, for example, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg and the relevant
specialised press. However, we do not assume liability for the correctness and completeness of all information given. The provided
information has not been checked by a third party, especially an independent auditing firm. We explicitly point to the stated date of
preparation. The information given can become incorrect due to passage of time and/or as a result of legal, political, economic or other
changes. We do not assume responsibility to indicate such changes and/or to publish an updated document. The forecasts contained in
this document or other statements on rates of return, capital gains or other accession are the personal opinion of the author and we do not
assume liability for the realisation of these.
This document is only for information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendation to buy financial
instruments. It does not replace consulting regarding legal, tax or financial matters.

Remarks regarding foreign investors

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Michael Christodoulou +44 20 3207 7920

EQUITY SALES
SPECIALIST SALES SALES SALES (cont'd) CORPORATE ACCESS
AEROSPACE & DEFENCE & CAPITAL GOODS BENELUX UK (cont'd) Lindsay Arnold +44 20 3207 7821
Cara Luciano +44 20 3753 3146 Miel Bakker +44 20 3207 7808 Jemima Stobart +44 20 3465 2676 Sally Fitzpatrick +44 20 3207 7826
AUTOS, CHEMICALS & TECHNOLOGY Bram van Hijfte +44 20 3753 3000 Paul Walker +44 20 3465 2632 Maz Gentile +44 20 3465 2668
Edward Wales +44 20 3207 7815 FRANCE GERMANY Robyn Gowers +44 20 3753 3109
BANKS & DIVERSIFIED FINANCIALS Alexandre Chevassus +33 1 5844 9512 Simone Arnheiter +49 69 91 30 90 740 Dipti Jethwani +44 20 3207 7936
Eleni Papoula +44 20 3465 2741 Dalila Farigoule +33 1 5844 9510 Nina Buechs +49 69 91 30 90 735 Phoebe Lindsay +44 20 3753 3246
Valeria Rigato +44 20 3753 3243 Kevin Nor +33 1 5844 9505 André Grosskurth +49 69 91 30 90 734 Ross Mackay +44 20 3207 7866
BUSINESS SERVICES, LEISURE & TRANSPORT Guillaume Viret +331 5844 9507 Jannik Peters +49 69 91 30 90 747 Stella Siggins +44 20 3465 2630
Rebecca Langley +44 20 3207 7930 UK Lucy Stevens +44 20 3753 3068
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY & STAPLES Thomas Baker +44 20 3753 3062 SCANDINAVIA Abbie Stewart +44 20 3753 3054
Pauline Chevalier +44 20 3753 3209 Ines Bousabaa +44 20 3753 3049 Marco Weiss +49 40 3506 0719
HEALTHCARE James Burt +44 20 3207 7807 EVENTS
David Hogg +44 20 3465 2628 Marta De-Sousa Fialho +44 20 3753 3098 SWITZERLAND, AUSTRIA & ITALY Miranda Bridges +44 20 3753 3008
MEDIA & TELECOMS Katie Jackson +44 20 3753 3041 Duncan Downes +41 22 317 1062 Charlotte David +44 20 3207 7832
Jonathan Smith +44 20 3207 7842 Robert Floyd +44 20 3753 3018 Andrea Ferrari +41 44 283 2020 Lisa Hamersley +44 20 3753 3188
METALS & MINING Fiona Haines +44 20 3207 7926 Gianni Lavigna +41 44 283 2038 Laura Hawes +44 20 3753 3156
Sanam Nourbakhsh +44 20 3207 7924 Sean Heath +44 20 3465 2742 Jamie Nettleton +41 44 283 2026 Suzy Khan +44 20 3207 7915
OIL & GAS AND UTILITIES Stuart Holt +44 20 3465 2646 Natalie Meech +44 20 3207 7831
Jason Turner +44 20 3753 3063 James Hunt +44 20 3753 3007 CRM Eleanor Metcalfe +44 20 3207 7834
ESG STRATEGIST James McRae +44 20 3753 3036 Megan Connelly +44 20 3753 3244 Sarah Weyman +44 20 3207 7801
Chris Armstrong +44 20 3207 7809 David Mortlock +44 20 3207 7850 Laura Cooper +44 20 3753 3065
Kushal Patel +44 20 3753 3038 Beau Dibbs +44 20 3753 3048 COO Office
Lucy Roe +44 20 3753 3222 Jessica Jarmyn +44 20 3465 2696 Greg Swallow +44 20 3207 7833
Mark Sheridan +44 20 3207 7802 Vikram Nayar +44 20 3465 2737
George Smibert +44 20 3207 7911 Fenella Neill +44 20 3207 7868

SALES TRADING
LONDON LONDON (cont'd) HAMBURG (cont'd) ELECTRONIC TRADING
Charles Beddow +44 20 3465 2691 Sean Taylor +44 20 3753 3369 Philipp Wiechmann +49 40 350 60 346 Oliver Bailey +44 20 3753 3083
Mike Berry +44 20 3465 2755 Adam Tundervary +44 20 3753 3368 Christoffer Winter +49 40 350 60 559 Olatayo Balogun +44 20 3753 3107
Joseph Chappell +44 20 3207 7885 Frans Van Wakeren +44 20 3753 3079 Nicola Brambleby +44 20 3753 3083
Stewart Cook +44 20 3465 2752 LONDON Frederik Bröker +49 40 3506 0463
Andrew Duke +44 20 3753 3087 PARIS Matthew Belton +44 20 3753 3302 Robert Chandler +44 20 3207 7919
Mark Edwards +44 20 3753 3004 Vincent Klein +33 1 58 44 95 09 Christopher Brown +44 20 3753 3085 Jonas Doehler +49 40 3506 0391
Tom Floyd +44 20 3753 3136 Edward Burlison-Rush +44 20 3753 3005 Ibrahim Erkan +44 20 3753 3367
Tristan Hedley +44 20 3753 3006 EQUITY TRADING Jack Clayton +44 20 3753 3166 George Fletcher +44 20 3753 3360
Will Kain +44 20 3753 3167 HAMBURG Sam Hart +44 20 3753 3303 Matthias Führer +49 40 3506 0597
Peter King +44 20 3753 3139 David Hohn +49 40 350 60 761 Perry Lavin +44 20 3753 3370 Paul Kitchen +44 20 3465 2754
Nicholas Lee +44 20 3207 7816 Lukas Niehoff +49 40 350 60 798 Chris McKeand +44 20 3207 7938 Sven Kramer +49 40 3506 0347
AJ Pulleyn +44 20 3465 2756 Lennart Pleus +49 40 350 60 596 Ross Tobias +44 20 3753 3137 Jason Rand +44 20 3465 2750
Paul Somers +44 20 3465 2753 Marvin Schweden +49 40 350 60 576 Robert Towers +44 20 3753 3262 Alexander Roby +44 20 3753 3320

14
FORECASTS AT A GLANCE
Economics

BERENBERG CAPITAL MARKETS LLC Member FINRA & SIPC

Internet www.berenberg-us.com E-mail: firstname.lastname@berenberg-us.com

EQUITY RESEARCH HEALTHCARE ECONOMICS CORPORATE ACCESS

GENERAL MID CAP - US BIOTECH/THERAPEUTICS Mickey Levy +1 646 949 9099 Michele Backmann +1 646 949 9215
Samuel England +1 646 949 9035 Esther Hong +1 646 949 9039 Roiana Reid +1 646 949 9098 Amanda Keogan +1 646 949 9240
Alexander Leach +1 646 949 9038 Zhiqiang Shu +1 917 797 7610 Adriane Klein +1 617 292 8202
Alex Maroccia +1 646 949 9033 Yun Zhong +1 646 949 9068 EQUITY SALES Andie Rodgers +1 646 949 9219
Brett Knoblauch +1 646 949 9032 SALES (cont'd) Olivia Lee +1 646 949 9207
MED. TECH/SERVICES David Alonso +1 415 802 2523
CAPITAL GOODS Ravi Misra +1 646 949 9028 Albert Aguiar +1 646 949 9218 EVENTS
Andrew Buscaglia +1 646 949 9040 Iris Long +1 646 949 9029 Henry Balf +1 617 292 -8206 Meridian Della Penna     +1 646 949 9208
David Mizrahi +1 646 949 9073 Jason Cantrell +1 415 802 2523 Cailin Ryan +1 646 949 9264
Kenneth Vallace +1 646 949 9074 INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS Mike Davis +1 646 949 9230
Paretosh Misra +1 646 949 9031 Nate Emerton +1 617 292 82 11 SALES TRADING
CONSTRUCTION Kelleigh Faldi +1 617 292 8288 Scott Brooks +1 646 949 9131
Gaurav Goparaju +1 646 949 9024 REAL ESTATE Ted Franchetti +1 646 949 9231 Marc Castagnera +1 646 949 9107
Robert Muir +1 646 949 9028 Keegan Carl +1 646 949 9052 Rich Harb +1 617 292 8228 Ronald Cestra +1 646 949 9104
Daniel Wang +1 646 949 9025 Nate Crossett +1 646 949 9030 Zubin Hubner +1 646 949 9202 Mark Corcoran +1 646 949 9105
Connor Siversky +1 646 949 9037 Anthony Masucci +1 646 949 9217 Chris Davidson +1 617 292 9140
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY Ryan McDonnell +1 646 949 9214 Jesse Forster +1 646 949 9106
David Beckel +1 646 949 9045 SOFTWARE & IT SERVICES Emily Mouret +1 415 802 2525 James Gimbel +1 646 949 9125
Brian C. McNamara +1 646 949 9046 Kingsley Crane +1 646 949 9034 Peter Nichols +1 646 949 9201 Chad Greiner +1 646 949 9221
Barbara Monreal +1 646 949 9054 Gal Munda +1 646 949 9021 Kieran O'Sullivan +1 617 292 8292 Brian Hegarty +1 646 949 9126
Joshua Tilton +1 646 949 9036 Rodrigo Ortigao +1 646 949 9205 Kevin Kology +1 646 949 9120
FOOD MANUFACTURING Andrew Smith +1 646 949 9071 Bhavin Patel +1 646 949 9225 Peter McQuaid +1 646 949 -9130
Donald McLee +1 646 949 9026 Chris Pyle +1 646 949 9223 Lars Schwartau +1 646 949 9101
TECHNOLOGY HARDWARE Andrea Sestanovich +1 646 949 9081 Bob Spillane +1 646 949 9102
INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY Andrew DeGasperi +1 646 949 9044 Donato Tierno +1 646 949 9109
Michael Filatov +1 646 949 9070 Alexandra Ross +1 646 949 9041 CRM Joseph Tyburczy +1 646 949 9108
Alexandra Angove +1 646 949 9211
Sammy Chea +1 646 949 9241

15