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OM-3 Forecasting PDF
OM-3 Forecasting PDF
FORECASTING
FORECAST:
A statement about the future
Timely
Reliable Accurate
Written
Steps in the Forecasting Process
“The forecast”
Consumer surveys
Delphi method
Executive opinions
Opinions of managers and staff
Sales force.
Time Series Forecasts
(Quantitative)
Moving average
Exponential smoothing
Simple Moving Average
Smoothes out randomness by averaging positive
and negative random elements over several periods
n - number of periods (this example uses 4)
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Demand 74 90 100 60 80 90
Forecast 81 82.5 82.5
Points to Know on Moving Averages
t
Ft +1 = a t − i +1 A i 1 2 3
i = t − n +1 Alpha 0.6 0.3 0.1
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Average
Demand 46 48 47 23 40
Forecast 32.70 35.60
Exponential Smoothing
Simpler equation, equivalent to WMA
a – exponential smoothing parameter (0< a<1)
Ft = Ft −1 + a ( At −1 − Ft −1 )
a 0.1
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Average
Demand 74 90 100 60
Forecast 72 72.2 73.98
Exponential Smoothing (α=0.30)
Ft = Ft −1 + a ( At −1 − Ft −1 )
PERIOD MONTH DEMAND F2 37 + (0.30)(37-37)
=
1 Jan 37 = 37
2 Feb 40
3 Mar 41
4 Apr 37
F3 =37+ (0.30)(40-37)
5 May 45
6 Jun 50 = 37.9
7 Jul 43
8 Aug 47
9 Sep 56
10 Oct 52
11 Nov 55
12 Dec 54
Exponential Smoothing (cont.)
FORECAST, Ft + 1
PERIOD MONTH DEMAND (a = 0.3) (a = 0.5)
1 Jan 37 – –
2 Feb 40 37.00 37.00
3 Mar 41 37.90 38.50
4 Apr 37 38.83 39.75
5 May 45 38.28 38.37
6 Jun 50 40.29 41.68
7 Jul 43 43.20 45.84
8 Aug 47 43.14 44.42
9 Sep 56 44.30 45.71
10 Oct 52 47.81 50.85
11 Nov 55 49.06 51.42
12 Dec 54 50.84 53.21
13 Jan – 51.79 53.61
Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
AFt +1 = Ft +1 + Tt +1
where
T = an exponentially smoothed trend factor
Tt +1 = (Ft +1 - Ft) + (1 - ) Tt
where
Tt = the last period trend factor
= a smoothing constant for trend
Adjusted Exponential
Smoothing (β=0.30)
PERIOD MONTH DEMAND T3 = (F3 - F2) + (1 - ) T2
1 Jan 37 = (0.30)(38.5 - 37.0) + (0.70)(0)
2 Feb 40 = 0.45
3 Mar 41
4 Apr 37 AF3 = F3 + T3 = 38.5 + 0.45
5 May 45 = 38.95
6 Jun 50
7 Jul 43 T13 = (F13 - F12) + (1 - ) T12
8 Aug 47 = (0.30)(53.61 - 53.21) + (0.70)(1.77)
9 Sep 56
= 1.36
10 Oct 52
11 Nov 55
12 Dec 54 AF13 = F13 + T13 = 53.61 + 1.36 = 54.96
Adjusted Exponential Smoothing:
Example
FORECAST TREND ADJUSTED
PERIOD MONTH DEMAND Ft +1 Tt +1 FORECAST AFt +1
1 Jan 37 37.00 – –
2 Feb 40 37.00 0.00 37.00
3 Mar 41 38.50 0.45 38.95
4 Apr 37 39.75 0.69 40.44
5 May 45 38.37 0.07 38.44
6 Jun 50 38.37 0.07 38.44
7 Jul 43 45.84 1.97 47.82
8 Aug 47 44.42 0.95 45.37
9 Sep 56 45.71 1.05 46.76
10 Oct 52 50.85 2.28 58.13
11 Nov 55 51.42 1.76 53.19
12 Dec 54 53.21 1.77 54.98
13 Jan – 53.61 1.36 54.96
Linear Trend Equation
Yt = a + bt
a
0 1 2 3 4 5 t
b is the line slope.
Calculating a and b
n (ty) - t y
b =
n t 2 - ( t) 2
y - b t
a =
n
t y
Week t2 Sales ty
1 1 150 150
2 4 157 314
3 9 162 486
4 16 166 664
5 25 177 885
t = 15 t2 = 55 y = 812 ty = 2499
( t)2 = 225
Linear Trend Calculation
812 - 6.3(15)
a = = 143.5
5
y = 143.5 + 6.3t
Look on page 85
Disadvantage of simple linear regression
Forecast error
difference between forecast and actual demand
MAD
mean absolute deviation
MAPD
mean absolute percent deviation
Cumulative error
Average error or bias
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
At - Ft
MAD = n
where
t = period number
At = demand in period t
Ft = forecast for period t
n = total number of periods
= absolute value
MAD Example
PERIOD DEMAND, At Ft (a =0.3) (At - Ft) |At - Ft|
1 37 37.00 – –
2 40 37.00 3.00 3.00
At38.83
- Ft
3 41 37.90 3.10 3.10
4 37 -1.83 1.83
5 MAD
45 = n38.28 6.72 6.72
6 50 40.29 9.69 9.69
7 43 53.39
43.20 -0.20 0.20
=
8 47 1143.14 3.86 3.86
9 56 44.30 11.70 11.70
10 52 = 4.85 47.81 4.19 4.19
11 55 49.06 5.94 5.94
12 54 50.84 3.15 3.15
557 49.31 53.39
Other Accuracy Measures
Tracking signal
monitors the forecast to see if it is biased high or low
(At - Ft) E
Tracking signal = =
MAD MAD
Tracking Signal Values
DEMAND FORECAST, ERROR E = TRACKING
PERIOD At Ft At - Ft (At - Ft) MAD SIGNAL
1 37 37.00 – – – –
2 40 37.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 1.00
3 41 37.90 3.10 6.10 3.05 2.00
4 37 38.83 -1.83 4.27 2.64 1.62
5 45 38.28
Tracking 6.72 for period
signal 10.99 3 3.66 3.00
6 50 40.29 9.69 20.68 4.87 4.25
7 43 43.20 -0.20
6.10 20.48 4.09 5.01
8 47 43.14TS = 3.86 = 24.34
2.00 4.06 6.00
3
9 56 44.30 3.05 36.04
11.70 5.01 7.19
10 52 47.81 4.19 40.23 4.92 8.18
11 55 49.06 5.94 46.17 5.02 9.20
12 54 50.84 3.15 49.32 4.85 10.17
Sources of forecast errors