Professional Documents
Culture Documents
intermediate ends
intermediate means
ultimate means
7. Sample indicators 72
i
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
ii
The origin of this work
This paper grew out of a five-day • Wouter Biesiot, Center for En-
workshop on sustainable develop- ergy and Environmental Studies,
ment indicators attended by a small University of Groningen, the
subset of the two hundred members Netherlands;
of the Balaton Group. The Balaton
Group, founded in 1981, is an inter- • Valdis Bisters, Ecological Center,
national network of scholars and ac- University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia;
tivists who work on sustainable de-
• Hartmut Bossel, Environmental
velopment in their own countries and
Systems Research Center, Univer-
regions. We come to our work from
sity of Kassel, Germany;
a cross-disciplinary, whole-systems
perspective. Individually and jointly • Joan Davis, Federal Institute for
we have been thinking about and test- Environmental Sciences and Tech-
ing indicators of sustainable develop- nology, Dubendorf, Switzerland;
ment in local, national, or interna-
tional contexts for many years. • Bert de Vries, RIVM, Bilthoven,
The workshop was held at the the Netherlands;
National Institute for Public Health
• Thomas Fiddaman, System Dy-
and Environmental Protection
namics Group, MIT, Cambridge,
(RIVM) in Bilthoven, the Nether-
MA, USA;
lands, April 13–17, 1996. The par-
ticipants (identified here by their • Genady Golubev, Faculty of Ge-
place of employment, though we par- ography, Moscow State University,
ticipated as individuals) were: Russia;
iii
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
iv
The origin of this work
the group strongly object to some have made no headway if we had not
things written here, though I think been able to think about and build
all are in agreement with the basic upon years of intense discussion
thrust (and I try to signal the areas of about indicators of sustainable devel-
significant discord). The drafting opment on the part of thousands of
committee decided it would be bet- people throughout the world. In par-
ter to give me free rein to write in my ticular we would like to acknowledge:
own voice, choose my own empha-
ses, and be responsible for my own • The program on indicators of the
quirks, rather than to try to hammer United Nations Commission on
out a document that might please Sustainable Development (CSD);
everyone and therefore become col-
orless. • The formulation of indicators of
So, while recognizing an enor- natural, human, and social capi-
mous debt to those who were respon- tal by the World Bank;
sible for the ideas, funding, and prac-
• Compilations of environmental
tical efforts that made this work pos-
indicators assembled by the
sible, I take personal responsibility for
United Nations Statistical Divi-
everything written here.
sion, the OECD, the European
Environment Agency, and
Eurostat;
v
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
vi
The origin of this work
vii
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
viii
The origin of this work
ix
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
x
The origin of this work
xi
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
Chapter 8: Implementing,
monitoring, testing, evaluating,
and improving indicators
xii
The origin of this work
xiii
The nature of indicators, the importance of indicators
1
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
Indicators arise from values Clearly some values (and hence indi-
(we measure what we care about), cators) are place- or culture-specific,
and they create values others are common to all humanity.
(we care about what we measure). Some are quantitatively measurable,
while others, which may be equally
What do you keep an eye on, to be important, can only be felt qualita-
sure your home or workplace or com- tively.
munity is in good shape? What would Not only do we measure what we
you ask about a place you might move value, we also come to value what
to, to find out if you would like to live we measure. The Dow-Jones index
there? What would you want to know arose from the information needs of
about your society fifty years from stockholders, but now the general
now, to be sure your grandchildren are public sees it as an indicator of na-
living good lives? The answers people tional economic health. No one
give to questions like these reflect their cared about a blood cholesterol level
values. over 200 until doctors started in-
Various U.S. communities, asked to
cluding it in our annual checkups.
define indicators of their own long- Opponents of the Vietnam War
term welfare, have responded with: made converts by creating an indi-
• whether we have to lock our cator: the nightly body count.
houses and cars; Indicators can be tools of
• whether the children will go on liv-
change, learning, and propaganda.
ing here or move away; Their presence, absence, or promi-
nence affect behavior. The world
• whether wild salmon still run in the
rivers (Seattle); would be a very different place if na-
tions prided themselves not on their
• whether, when we open the win-
dows, we can smell the sage (Den- high GDPs but on their low infant
ver). mortality rates. Or if the World
A group of Portuguese young people
Bank ranked countries not by aver-
once listed as the top three ques- age GDP per capita but by the ratio
tions they would ask about a strange of the incomes of the richest 10 per-
country: cent to the poorest 10 percent.
• how many days in a year does the We try to measure what we value.
sun shine? We come to value what we measure.
• how many kilometers are there of This feedback process is common, in-
clean beach? evitable, useful, and full of pitfalls.
• when you walk down the streets,
are the people warm and friendly?
2
The nature of indicators, the importance of indicators
3
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
4
The nature of indicators, the importance of indicators
5
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
6
Indicators, models, cultures, worldviews
wouldn’t be able to absorb its full that the rest of us don’t even perceive.
buzzing complexity. We would have Every jiggle in stock prices carries vi-
to abstract and simplify. The aston- tal information only to those who
ishing success of our species testifies watch the market every day. An indi-
to our ability to do so accurately cator is useful only if it carries its in-
enough to serve many purposes. The formation to a mind prepared to re-
record of our failures, accidents, sur- ceive it, educated to its terms and
prises, and disasters testifies to the units of measurement, and actively
limits of our modeling ability. engaged with the system illuminated
It helps to maintain humility by that indicator.
about our models as we search for Therefore we will probably never
indicators of sustainable develop- settle on a single global index of sus-
ment. Sustainable development is a tainable development — too many
social construct, referring to the long- different people work on different
term evolution of a hugely complex problems and need different kinds
system — the human population and of information. Some people are
economy embedded within the eco- more interested in “development,”
systems and biogeochemical flows of others in “sustainability.” Some are
the planet. Our models of this sys- looking for “warning lights” telling
tem are and will always be incom- when a key resource will become
plete. Our indicators will be imper- scarce or an ecosystem is likely to be
fect. We will be making decisions driven into irreversible collapse.
under uncertainty. Our task is to re- Others are interested in the welfare
duce that uncertainty. We will not be of a particular city or nation, or in
able to eliminate it completely, at least bringing to public attention a par-
not any time soon. ticular pocket of poverty or pollu-
tion or under-capitalization.
So, rather than a single index, we
We need many indicators, need an information system— one
because we have many purposes at least as sophisticated as the system
— but there may be over-arching that presently tracks flows of money
purposes that transcend nations around the world — to inform vari-
and cultures, and therefore there ous decision makers at various levels
may be overarching indicators. with various purposes related to sus-
tainability and development.
Football scores are meaningful indi- Having said that, I must also say
cators to football fans and gibberish something that sounds contradictory.
to everyone else. A farmer can read The comprehensive task — bringing
signals from a field of growing grain about a socioeconomic system that
7
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
enhances quality of human life while ity. They tell us what the environment
preserving natural support systems — is (limited and fragile or infinite and
is particular to cultures and ecosys- robust, outside ourselves or continu-
tems, but is also, in essence, the same ous with ourselves, a luxury or the
everywhere. Planet Earth operates by most basic of necessities), what human
just one set of physical and biologi- beings are (honest, devious, generous,
cal laws, though they manifest as di- greedy, fallen angels, unrecognized
verse climates and ecosystems. Hu- buddhas, competitive rationalists,
man beings have the same fundamen- myopic egotists), and how people and
tal needs for sustenance and belong- nature should interact (through do-
ing and meaning, though their ways minion, stewardship, harmony, part-
of meeting those needs are culturally nership, competition, exploitation,
varied. Global resources such as the love). Our worldviews define what is
oceans and atmosphere are important important, what questions can be
to everyone. Therefore it may be pos- asked, what goals are possible, what
sible to derive from a multiplicity of can and should be measured.
specific local indicators an overarching Worldviews not only give mean-
set of global indicators that inform ing to information, they actively
common problems and purposes. screen information, only admitting
These indicators can report to all of what fits our preconceived models.
us about the increasingly integrated Someone who is convinced that tech-
global socioeconomic system con- nology can solve any problem, for ex-
tained within the undeniably inte- ample, can read the newspaper and
grated global biogeochemical system. find articles about wonderful new
I suggest a few overarching indi- technologies. Someone with a skep-
cators later in this document. tical view can read the same paper and
see nothing but articles about tech-
nical foul-ups. Each is screening for
We need many indicators the information that fits his or her
because we have many paradigm. If contrary evidence does
worldviews — but indicators may penetrate our paradigmatic screens,
help narrow the differences we have ways of dismissing it or dis-
between worldviews. counting the people who present it
to us. We see information that
The deepest reason why people need disconfirms our worldview as the ex-
different indicators is that they have ception and information that con-
different fundamental worldviews or firms our worldview as the rule.
paradigms. Worldviews are mental Therefore people of different
models about the very nature of real- worldviews live literally in different
8
Indicators, models, cultures, worldviews
worlds. They see different things and Indicators need not be purely
take their information from different objective, and in fact few of
indicators. Scientists who see the them are.
world as flows of energy will want
different indicators than will econo- It is conventional within a scientific
mists who see the world as flows of worldview to distinguish between “ob-
money — who will want different jective” and “subjective” indicators.
indicators than will people who see Objective indicators are sensed by in-
the world as flows of time or social struments outside the individual —
relationships or moral obligation or thermometers, voltmeters, counters,
political power. Our worldviews don’t dials, rulers. They can be verified by
even use the same currency! No won- others. They can be expressed in num-
der we argue about indicators! bers. Subjective indicators are sensed
Given the multiplicity of perspec- only within the individual by means
tives, one option is to disagree end- that may not be easily explained and
lessly. We can promote our own in- in units that are probably not numeri-
dicators and ridicule others’. Another cal. Objective indicators primarily
option is to acknowledge the inher- measure quantity. Subjective indica-
ent ambiguity in the choice of mod- tors primarily measure quality.
els and the design of indicators. If that Objective indicators are usually
is done, if worldviews and models are considered more reliable and valu-
exposed to view, if their plurality is able. They are certainly more easily
not only recognized but appreciated, communicated and validated by oth-
indicators can play an emancipatory ers. But there are vital purposes that
role. Different indicators giving con- depend on subjective, qualitative in-
flicting reports about the state of the formation. The scientific worldview
global system can provide an oppor- is just one way to see the world, a very
tunity to inquire into the underlying useful one, but not comprehensive
models that produced the discrep- enough to be used exclusively. A
ancy. Indicators can be a tool for ex- choice to pay attention only to what
panding, correcting, and integrating is measurable is itself a subjective
worldviews. choice, and not a wise one. Every hu-
(Note: everything written here man being knows that some of the
about worldviews is a worldview.) most important things in life — free-
dom, love, hope, harmony, even the
beauty of scientific precision — are
qualities, not quantities.
All indicators are at least partially
subjective. The very choice of an in-
9
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
10
Why indicators of sustainable development?
3. Why indicators of
sustainable development?
11
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
12
Why indicators of sustainable development?
For example, a common resource indicator is the amount of fossil fuel reserves
known and estimated — roughly 1000 billion barrels of known oil reserves globally,
plus perhaps 500 billion barrels estimated but undiscovered.3 This amount by itself
is not a helpful number. It is too huge to be imaginable, and it is not related to our
own activities or limits.
If we compare the estimated supply of 1500 billion barrels to recent rates of oil
consumption, about 25 billion barrels per year,4 we can put that reserve in terms of
a more understandable index: years of consumption remaining:
If we assume not present consumption, but a rate of growth slightly higher than
population growth — let’s say 2%/year on average — we get a strikingly different
number:
We may (and will) argue about how much more oil might be discovered and about
what the future growth rate might be. Different estimates will produce different
indicated lifetimes for the oil resource. For example:
Even given great uncertainties about future oil discoveries and future consumption
growth, a few calculations of such an indicator of time remaining gets across the
central message: the time is bounded and limited to decades, not centuries, if oil
consumption keeps increasing.
A useful indicator in such an inherently uncertain arena ought to cover the range of
possibilities. Perhaps something like this: Known and estimated and speculative oil
reserves will last roughly approximately 60 to 120 years if there is no increase in
consumption, and 30 to 60 years if there is steady exponential growth in consump-
tion.
3
Worldwide Petroleum Industry
Outlook, 14th ed. Tulsa, Okla.:
PennWell Pub. Co., 1997;
Energy Statistics Sourcebook,
12th ed. Tulsa, Okla.: PennWell
Pub. Co., 1997.
4
Ibid.
13
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that the world
economy would need to cut its carbon dioxide emissions by 60% in order to
stabilize the chemical composition of the atmosphere.5 If we define the sus-
tainable emission rate as 1.0, that means our current emission rate is 1.6 —
clearly beyond sustainability.
Similarly, suppose that a fishery’s biology experts estimate that the current
rate of fish harvesting is about 20 percent above the rate that would allow fish
populations to regenerate.6 Sustainability index = 1.2 — over the limit.
6,000
acidification equivalents
deposition
target
3,000
5
Intergovernmental Panel on target
Climate Change, Climate target
Change: The IPCC Scientific sustainability level
Assessment, edited by J. T. 0
Houghton, G. J. Jenkins, and J. 1980 1995 2010
J. Ephraums. Cambridge/New
York: Cambridge University
Press, 1990.
6
That is roughly what the Food
and Agriculture Organization
(FAO) has estimated for excess
fishing capacity on average
worldwide, though such an
indicator makes most sense only
when it is calculated fishery by If they are not expressed in units of Development indicators should
fishery. See, for example: J. A.
Gulland, ed., The Fish Resources time, sustainability indicators should be more than growth indicators;
of the Ocean. Surrey, U.K.: be related to carrying capacity or to
Fishing News Ltd., 1971; M. A.
they should be about efficiency,
Robinson, Trends and Prospects in threshold of danger or to targets. sufficiency, equity, and quality
World Fisheries, Fisheries Circular Tons of nutrient per year released into
No. 772. Rome: FAO, 1984; of life.
FAO, Marine Fisheries and the waterways means nothing to people.
Law of the Sea: A Decade of
Change, Fisheries Circular No.
Amount released relative to the In an empty world, development can
853. Rome: FAO, 1993; FAO, amount the waterways can absorb easily be confused with growth.
The State of World Fisheries and
Aquaculture 1996. Rome: FAO, without becoming toxic or clogged Growth simply means getting larger
1997. begins to carry a message. — not necessarily getting better.
7
Dr. A. Adriaanse, Most of our economic indicators, es-
Environmental Policy Performance
Indicators. Sdu Uitgeverij
Koninginnegracht, May 1993,
pp. 33.
14
Why indicators of sustainable development?
Here are some Wackernagel and United States 8.4 6.2 -2.1
Rees estimates of ecological foot-
prints related to land capacity for se-
lected nations of the world:9
tablished several doublings ago, are ciency, and sufficiency. They must shift
defined around growth, with the emphasis from money to physical
GDP per capita as the most obvious units and from quantity of material
8
M. Wackernagel and W. Rees,
example. throughput to quality of life. These Our Ecological Footprint.
In a full world, development and distinctions begin to point to the real Philadelphia: New Society
Publishing, 1996.
physical growth must be decoupled. purpose of economic development,
9
As economist Herman Daly has which is not to have money but to M. Wackernagel et al.,
“Ecological Footprints of
pointed out, growth is about getting have better lives. This sort of rethink- Nations,” Center for Sustainabil-
bigger, development is about getting ing can also create openings for con- ity Studies, Xalapa, Mexico,
March 10, 1997.
better.10 Development indicators must cepts not only of under-development
10
R. Goodland, H. Daly, and S.
begin to reflect quality, equity, effi- but of over-development, and there- El Serafy, introduction to
fore for concepts of “enough.” Environmentally Sustainable
Economic Development: Building
on Brundtland, The World Bank
Environment Working Paper no.
46, July 1991, pp. 2-3.
15
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
Human
One of the first attempts to indi- In a similar vein, the health-
Development
cate actual human development based magazine Prevention has
rather than money flows is the Index invented an index to measure
Human Development Index, pio- Nation (HDI) the healthfulness of a nation’s
neered by the UN Development lifestyle. It is an aggregation of
Programme. The HDI is a (fairly Canada 0.951 twenty-one indicators, deter-
complex) mathematical average USA 0.940 mined largely by polling data.
of three indicators: average life They include:12
expectancy, average educa- Japan 0.938
What percent of the adult popu-
tional attainment, and GDP per
Russia 0.804 lation:
capita. Here are some sample
HDI values for selected coun- Brazil 0.796 • do not smoke?
tries (1993 data).11
Indonesia 0.641 • engage in frequent strenuous
exercise?
China 0.609
• maintain proper weight?
Kenya 0.473
• get 7-8 hours of sleep a night?
Nigeria 0.400
• fasten seat belts while riding
Afghanistan 0.229
in a car?
Somalia 0.221
• refrain from excess alcohol
consumption?
11
United Nations Development
Programme, Human Development
Report 1996. New York: Oxford
University Press, 1996, pp. 136-
137.
12
The “Prevention Index” is
available from Prevention
magazine, 33 East Minor Street,
Emmaus, Pennsylvania.
16
The challenge of coming up with good indicators
17
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
18
The challenge of coming up with good indicators
19
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
Here are some of the beloved indicators that participants in the Balaton work-
shop kept insisting upon (which may tell you more about us than about sustain-
ability indicators):
• Percent of the food supply that is grown organically. We are worried about
the effects of chemical agriculture on ecosystems and human health.
• Percent of streams you can drink from safely. Seems to us it should be 100
percent.
• Average age of the trees in the forest. Old ones signify to us undisturbed
ecosystems, too many young ones signify unsustainable forestry.
• Food miles (average distance an item of food travels before being eaten).
Local food is likely to be more fresh, nutritious, good-tasting, and resilient to
supply interruptions. It has also used less packaging and transport energy.
• Average distance between creators and consumers of art and media. Prefer-
ably there is no distance at all — a measure of community, participation,
identity, self-expression.
• Percent of elections in which you get to vote for a politician you really trust.
This one could be an embarrassing indicator of real democracy.
20
The challenge of coming up with good indicators
Indicators can take many forms. the people of the world about their
They don’t have to be numbers. welfare and the sustainability of their
They can be signs, symbols, planet as goes into reporting to them
pictures, colors. about tomorrow’s weather!
21
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
22
Suggestions for indicator process and linkage
23
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
It comes back to local but indicators of the security of Information should also come
knowledge. People have households, say, or the integrity of from all levels. The public can be
said that the beaches are communities are falling apart, and if important contributors to, as well
more polluted than what the cockpit indicator blends those as users of information and
they’ve been. I could two sources of information, then at indicators.
have told you that. least the question will rise, “why isn’t
Because I’ve seen from
this indicator rising, when the Governments have the scientific and
upstairs for thirty years
economy is doing so well?” Presum- financial resources to gather informa-
and looked out the
window every day and ably a scan of the indicators at the tion that is inaccessible to citizens,
seen the color of the sand next level down in the hierarchy will such as satellite imagery or radiation
change color. Whereas it answer that question. leaks. Citizens can provide detailed
used to be like everyone ground-truth that is inaccessible to
imagines sand, it’s now a governments.
browny color.
— focus group participant, Lancashire
County, UK16
For example, a nongovernmental Costa Rica has organized through Counts conducted by Audubon So-
organization called River Watch in its Instituto Nacional de Bio- ciety volunteers, originally in North
the United States organizes high diversidad (INBio) thousands of its America, now throughout the
school science teachers to involve citizens as local naturalists, trained Western Hemisphere, are proving
students in regular chemical and to collect and preserve insects, one of the most reliable long-term
biological monitoring of a stream plants, birds, and to send them to bird population data bases in ex-
near each school. The schools link taxonomists for classification. istence.19
their findings through computer Working in their spare time, the la-
networks, thereby creating moni- borers, students, housewives, and
toring networks for entire streams retired people in this program are
and rivers. They have been able to cataloguing the vast biological di-
detect changes in water quality versity of their nation. They have
quickly, and even, by comparing discovered hundreds of new spe-
data on successive reaches, to pin- cies. The species catalog is com-
point the source of a problem puterized and made available at
emission. If enough sections of libraries and schools throughout
river could be covered this way, the country. When the catalog is
the information could be aggre- done, the citizen naturalists can be-
gated upward into, for example, an come monitors of population size,
index of what percent of the breeding success, and other at-
nation’s surface water is of swim- tributes of biological diversity.18
mable and drinkable quality, and
Similarly the Christmas Bird
how that index is changing over
time.17
24
Suggestions for indicator process and linkage
Citizens could survey many things at more people involved in indicator se-
the local level: soil erosion, child nu- lection the better. Indicators for an
trition, adequacy of housing, use of entire social system should not be de-
local energy sources, quality of roads, termined by a small group of experts
water, jobs, schools, or forests. Citi- or politicians or civil servants sitting
zen monitoring not only can provide together in rooms out of contact with
excellent information at low cost, it the people who are expected to un-
can also contribute to the education derstand and use the indicators.
of the people and to widespread ap-
preciation for natural and societal The indicator selection process
wealth. works best with a combination of
expert and grassroots
participation.
The Selection Process:
experts and citizens Many indicator-defining groups have 16
Quoted in P. Hardi and T.
together found that they made greatest head- Zdan, eds., Assessing Sustainable
Development: Principles in
way in finding useful indicators if Practice. Winnipeg, Manitoba:
The process of indicator they put together experts on the sub- International Institute for
Sustainable Development, 1997,
development for social systems is ject in question with interested non- p. 107.
as important as the indicators experts. 17
River Watch Network, 153
selected. Experts are necessary to supply State Street, Montpelier, VT
comprehensive understanding, per- 05602. Another such organiza-
tion is the Global Rivers
As indicators are selected and defined, spective on the development of the Environmental Network
(GREEN, 206 South Fifth Ave.,
values are expressed, purposes are system over time, knowledge of what
Suite 150, Ann Arbor, Michigan
agreed upon, worldviews are at play, data are available, realism about what 48104, U.S.A.)
and models are developed and shared can be measured, and credibility to 18
INBio, Sto. Domingo 3100,
(implicitly or explicitly). Therefore the process. But experts, left to their Heredia Costa Rica, Tel.: (506)
36-7690, Fax: (506) 36-2816.
the selection process is the place own devices, can get lost in details,
19
can want to measure everything that The data are complied and
where legitimacy and comprehension maintained by the Patuxent
are built, as people see their values is intellectually interesting rather than Wildlife Research Center, Laurel,
what is policy-relevant, can invent Maryland. The CBC started on
and worldviews incorporated into the Christmas Day, 1900. Today,
indicators. The process of indicator technical indicators that carry no over 45,000 people from all 50
states, every Canadian province,
selection is also one of the key places meaning outside the expert commu- the Caribbean, Central and
where social learning about indica- nity, and can be blindered by the nar- South America, and the Pacific
Islands (all areas where the
tors and models takes place. row specificity of one area of study. breeding birds of North America
For all these reasons — to be in- Non-experts tend to push to spend their winter) participate in
about 1700 counts held during a
clusive, to gather a full compilation make the indicator relevant and un- two and one-half week period.
derstandable. The non-expert may be The Christmas Bird Count has
of viewpoints, to legitimize the prod- evolved into the largest and
uct, and to enhance learning — the more open than the expert to creative longest-running wildlife survey
ever undertaken.
25
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
linkages and syntheses, more likely to strong ties to the community or au-
capture the “big picture,” more likely dience for whom the indicators are
to be sure a diversity of interests are intended. The working group is most
represented. Just as the expert brings effective when it combines experts
scientific credibility to the indicator and non-experts from the outset, but
selection process, the non-expert the critical element is long-term com-
brings political credibility. mitment to the process.
2. Clarify the purpose of the in-
dicator set— whether it is meant to
But integrating expert and non- educate the public, provide back-
expert opinion has its costs and ground for key policy decisions, or
must be done with care. evaluate the success of an initiative
or plan. Different purposes give rise
Involving “everyone” can produce dis- to different indicators and publica-
proportionate representation of some tion strategies.
stakeholders, too little technical 3. Identify the community ’s
knowledge, too much focus on imme- shared values and vision.The indi-
diate interests, risk of incomplete map- cator set must be able to speak to the
ping of the area of interest, and no ho- hopes and aspirations of the people
listic understanding. Furthermore, it it is meant to serve.
can be inordinately time-consuming, 4. Review existing models, in-
may be difficult to enroll sufficient dicators, and data.The working
participation, requires skilled facilita- group takes a look at other indicator
tion, tends to get stuck in process dis- projects as examples to learn from. It
cussions, and tends to produce low- also reviews what indicators are al-
level “concrete” indicators. ready published locally and what data
Some practitioners who have are generally available.
weathered these challenges suggest 5. Draft a set of proposed in-
the following ten-step process for de- dicators. The working group draws
veloping an indicator set.20 They rec- on its own knowledge, the examples
ommend that the process be managed it has collected, and the advice of
by impartial facilitators whose role is outside experts if needed to prepare
to coordinate meetings, guide the dis- a first draft. The draft may go
cussion, prepare background docu- through several revisions before it is
ments, and synthesize results. ready for the next step. In particu-
20
“The Community Indicators 1. Select a small wor king group, lar, initial indicator sets tend to be
Handbook,” available for US$20
from Redefining Progress, 1 responsible for the success of thevery long. In later drafts, they need
Kearny Street, 4th Floor, San entire venture. The working group to be pruned down and made more
Francisco CA 94108. Tel.: (415)
781-1191, Fax: (415) 781-1198, needs to be multi-disciplinary, with focused and practicable.
Email info@RProgress.org
26
Suggestions for indicator process and linkage
27
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
28
Suggestions for indicator process and linkage
29
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
30
Suggestions for indicator process and linkage
The ratio of change rate to ing by about 7 percent per year. That
response rate is a critical — and makes a doubling time of 10 years. It
usually critically missing — takes a CFC molecule ten to fifteen
indicator of the degree to which a years to rise from the earth’s surface
system can be controlled. up to the stratosphere, where it breaks
apart and starts destroying the ozone
Rates of change around positive feed- layer. Given that growth rate and that
back loops are even more useful in- lag, the problem doubled before it could
dicators when they are combined even be measured.
with information about possible re- Clearly a system that is changing
sponse times. In fact, the combination faster than anyone can know or react
of the two — change rate compared is a system that cannot be managed,
with response rate — makes an indica- controlled, or protected against dam-
tor of the controllability of the system. age. The concept of change/response
During the 1970s, the produc- as a measure of system safety has been
tion of CFCs in the world was grow- highly developed in the field of
31
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
32
Suggestions for indicator process and linkage
A warning light on pumps taking A permit system for boats in a fish- Emission quotas for large-scale
groundwater from an aquifer, to in- ery, cutting the allowed number of pollutants such as sulfur dioxide or
dicate whether the aquifer is fill- boats or fishing days if the fish carbon dioxide, the total amount
ing (green), stable (yellow), or population falls. to be determined upon biophysi-
falling (red). Ideally the cost of the cal sustainability grounds, to be
Required stickers (purchased from
water would rise steeply as the auctioned off regularly to the high-
the municipality) on municipally
light turns red. est bidders. (Such a system would
collected garbage, so that people
put a price on the commons of
A meter on the dashboards of cars, who generate more trash have to
clean air and would allow the mar-
showing the instantaneous rate of pay more for its disposal.
ket to distribute efficiently the right
fuel consumption (measured in
to pollute. It would also provide a
money expended) — which would
control mechanism to keep total
give drivers feedback on more and
pollution within health and safety
less wasteful driving habits.
guidelines.)
33
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
Notice that in the above systems, the or the emergency cooling systems of
indicator gains real force when it is a nuclear power plant, or the health
coupled with a fee or regulatory sys- care capacity of a society, or the in-
tem. surance policies from a business. Re-
silience can be stripped away from a
system without immediate cost (ac-
An important indicator of the tually saving cost) and without affect-
resilience of a system is the ing the functioning of the system,
redundancy of its controlling until a crisis comes that demands that
negative feedback loops. resilience. At that point the cost can
be tremendous.
When an ecosystem loses species, it You can see why it is important
may lose control mechanisms by to sustainable development to have
which predators and prey keep their indicators that measure resilience. If
relative populations in balance. When immediate operating cost is the only
a village loses access to lands from indicator, there can be great tempta-
which it supplemented its food sup- tions to remove resilience or let it de-
ply in times of famine, it has lost an teriorate in order to realize short-term
element of emergency self-mainte- cost-saving.
nance. Resilience is lost when family Resilience is not commonly or
members are geographically scattered, easily measured; it will take some cre-
or when a watershed loses wetlands ativity to invent good indicators here.
that absorb floodwaters, or when a The only specific suggestion I can
nation becomes dependent upon a think of here is to use a concept fa-
single, imported source of energy, or miliar to most economic-minded per-
when a government fixes a price so it sons: insurance . There must be
simple indicators that calculate for an
can’t respond to supply and demand, enterprise how much is being ex-
or when a body’s immune system is pended on insurance and how ad-
compromised. equate that insurance is. (Companies
Removing or weakening feedback willing to cut corners in all others
areas rarely seem to stint on buying
loops that provide resilience is equiva- insurance.) Could that concept be ex-
lent to removing the fire detectors tended to families? Communities?
and sprinkler systems in a building, Ecosystems? Planetary geophysical
flows?
34
Suggestions for indicator process and linkage
annual catch
0% percent of soil eroded 100%
Turning points like these mark
You can emit nutrients into a thresholds beyond which the behav-
stream and natural bacteria will clean ior of a system changes radically,
them up, but if you emit too much sometimes irreversibly. Clearly we
too fast, the natural biota may be need indicators that signal them well
killed off, and the stream turned into in advance. These “distance from the
a sewer where wastes pile up without edge” indicators are like radar warn-
amelioration: ing a ship or plane of an obstacle
ahead. The faster the ship or plane
(or economy) is moving, the farther
ahead they have to look, to allow suf-
ficient braking or turning time. (Back
n
t io
ion
a
ul to the change rate/response rate dis-
op
r at
ia p
nt
e r
bact c e cussion!)
on
te c
ambie nt was
emissions rate
35
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
36
Suggestions for indicator process and linkage
Possible indicators:
Ecological evolutionary potential Technological evolutionary poten- Cultural evolutionary potential
might be measured by the rate of tial might be approximated by sci- might be captured in the number
disappearance of species relative entists per capita, basic research of different races, cultures, reli-
to the number of species originally expenditures per capita, inventions gions that live together in peace
there (equivalent to the rate of dis- or scientific prizes per capita within a given geographic area. A
appearance of books or journals in (though the latter is a lagging indi- leading indicator of the breakdown
a library). cator, reflecting the training of the of this potential might be the fre-
past generation, not coming ones.) quency of ethnic or cultural hate-
A better measure than any of the talk in the public media, especially
above would get more directly at when it comes from public lead-
creativity, originality, quickness of ers. (Monitoring this indicator
problem-solving, elegance and in- would have provided early warn-
genuity of solutions. (Percent of ing of the development of the fas-
high-school students working on cist regimes in Europe in the 1930s
solar cars? Truly original inventions and the breakdown of Yugoslavia
patented per capita? Number of in the 1990s.)
startup companies based on com-
pletely new concepts? Average
length of time major technical
problems persist before they are
solved?)
37
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
38
Suggestions for indicator process and linkage
25
The literature is vast. For a
start, see any issue of the System
Dynamics Journal or the following
websites: http://web.mit.edu/
jsterman/www/DID.html; http://
home.earthlink.net/~tomfid/
sdbookmarks.html; http://
sysdyn.mit.edu/road-maps/
rm-toc.html
39
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
6. A suggested framework
for sustainable development
indicators
That which is good and helpful ought to be
growing and that which is bad and hindering
ought to be diminishing.... We therefore need,
above all else, ... concepts that enable us to
choose the right direction of our movement and
not merely to measure its speed.
— E. F. Schumacher
40
A suggested framework for sustainable development indicators
own terms and that would lend itself a triangle or pyramid, and for histori-
both to a comprehensive underlying cal purposes I will use that symbol-
information system and to underly- ism, though the shape is not neces-
ing dynamic models. We wanted a sary to the logic (see page 42). Daly
“data-base organizer” that could be himself abandoned it in later texts
comprehended at all levels, in which and simply drew a vertical line. The
one would not be likely to lose one’s important idea is to situate the hu-
way, in which one would never lose man economy within a hierarchy,
sight of what is most important for resting on a foundation of natural re-
sustainable development. sources and reaching to the height of
I believe we found it, but before ultimate purpose.
I describe it, I must state that several At the base of the triangle, sup-
of my Balaton colleagues have reser- porting everything, are what Daly
vations about this scheme, more on calls the ultimate meansout of
the symbolic and philosophical lev- which all life and all economic trans-
els than on the level of logical con- actions are built and sustained. This
cepts. No scheme we came up with is natural capital,the matter of the
was embraced by all without reserva- planet, the sun’s energy, the bio-
tion. Our discussions of our doubts geochemical cycles, the ecosystems
about each scheme were revealing, and the genetic information they
showing the power of symbols and bear, and the human being as an or-
the different interpretations different ganism. These ultimate means are not
cultures can bring to the same sym- created by us; they are the heritage
bol. I see no way around that diffi- we were born into, and out of them
culty, except to choose a framework we fashion everything we have or
that seems to capture the central logic know. They are studied by the sci-
one is trying to communicate, and ences and converted through technol-
then, through use and example, to ogy to intermediate means.
imbue that framework with the in- The intermediate meansare
tended meaning. That is how every tools, machines, factories, skilled la-
large-scale indicator, from the GDP bor, processed material and energy —
to the Dow-Jones Index, has evolved. built capitaland human capitaland
The framework I suggest is based raw material. These intermediate
on a diagram Herman Daly drew means define the productive capac-
more than twenty years ago.30 It pic- ity of the economy. Economists call
tures the relationship between the hu- them inputs to the economy (system-
man economy and the earth in a way atically ignoring nature’s unpriced in-
30
that is, to me, logical, systematic, and puts from the level below). Interme- H. E. Daly, Toward a Steady-
State Economy. San Francisco: W.
clarifying. Daly originally drew it as diate means are necessary but not suf- H. Freeman and Company,
1973, p. 8.
41
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
political economy
42
A suggested framework for sustainable development indicators
ficient to accomplish all higher pur- bonum,” and insists, from his own
poses. Managing, valuing, distribut- monotheistic point of view, that it is
ing, maintaining, and using these in- singular, not plural.
termediate means is the concern of I have added to the diagram some
economics and politics, or the politi- other words that people use to define
cal economy. the ultimate end of human economic
The intermediate endsare the activity and human life — happiness,
goals that governments promise and harmony, fulfillment, self-respect,
economies are expected to deliver — self-realization, community, identity,
consumer goods, health, wealth, transcendence, enlightenment. The
knowledge, leisure, communication, impossibility of defining these words,
transportation — what economists or agreeing on ultimate end or ends,
call output.They are what everyone demonstrates that we are discussing
wants, but they by no means guaran- quality, not quantity, something im-
tee satisfaction, as is revealed by soci- material, not material, though it re-
eties where intermediate ends are quires the whole material triangle un-
abundant but people still feel their derneath to support it.
lives are empty. That is because in- Now for the reservations. Several
termediate ends are not ends in them- members of the Balaton Group have
selves, but instruments to achieve problems, not with the basic idea
something yet higher. The conversion behind this triangle, but with its sym-
of intermediate ends to ultimate ends bolism. It is too hierarchical and
depends on an effective ethic or reli- “Western minded” for some; too an-
gion or philosophy that can answer thropocentric for others; or too static;
the question: what are health, wealth, or there’s too much vagueness about
and education for? the top of the triangle, where objec-
At the top of the triangle is the tive physical stuff somehow gets
ultimate end, desired for itself, not transformed into subjective human
the means to the achievement of any satisfaction or arguable spirituality.
other end. The definition or measure- We all like the idea of the
ment of the ultimate end is fraught economy being borne up by and
with difficulties, especially for people drawing from nature and the idea of
of Western cultures. Daly was vague the economy serving higher goals and
about it: “Our perception of the ul- not being an end in itself. We regard
timate is always cloudy, but necessary those two ideas as essential to the un-
nonetheless, for without a perception derstanding of sustainable develop-
of the ultimate it would be impos- ment. We tried redrawing the Daly
sible to order intermediate ends and diagram, turning it into concentric
to speak of priorities.”31 He called circles of “nested dependencies,” into
31
the ultimate end the “summum a flower (see the title page of this re- Daly, op. cit., pp. 7-8.
43
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
port), even into a Möbius strip. We supply human ends.) The logical re-
made it into a compass (a likely indi- lationship among the levels of the
cator to find on a cockpit instrument hierarchy is what’s important to me,
panel), with N=Nature, E=Economy, along with the challenge of orienting
S=Society, and W=human Welfare. indicators toward the two things that
We got into snarls with the compass ultimately count for me — the health
symbol too; some people interpreted of nature and real human well-being.
it as saying that N is the best direc- I find the Daly pyramid the most in-
tion to go, or that if you go E, you tuitive of the many frameworks I have
can’t simultaneously go W, etc., etc., seen for organizing indicators, one
etc. The compass, while preserving that organizes the links among many
most of the content of the Daly tri- aspects of sustainable development,
angle (except the ultimate end, which and one which, as I will demonstrate
some people are glad to get out of the here, lends itself naturally to dynamic
picture), loses the sequential, depen- modeling, pressure-state-response
dent relationships among the various schemes, ecological footprints, and
levels. various kinds of capital.
The whole discussion, which be-
came very emotional, taught us a lot
about the humorlessness with which Sustainable development is a call
human beings take their symbols — to expand the economic calculus
a vital lesson for the design of indica- to include the top (development)
tors! and the bottom (sustainability) of
I don’t insist on the triangle, the triangle.
though out of deference to Daly’s
original vision, I use it here. I cer- Industrial society has thousands of in-
tainly don’t intend to convey by it the dicators from the middle of the pyra-
idea that the only purpose of nature mid, but few from the bottom and
is to fulfill human ends, an interpre- almost none from the top.
tation to which most Balaton mem- That is probably why “sustainable
bers strongly object. (Rather, I see the development” has become a global
triangle as saying there’s no way hu- rallying cry. Obviously, the purpose
man ends can be realized without of life is more than economic, and
healthy, functioning natural and eco- life is supported by more than that
nomic and social systems. Others see to which we can assign an economic
no problem, because they assume that price. Sustainable development asks
high human purposes must naturally us to pay attention to the bottom and
include valuing nature in its own the topof the pyramid, the health of
right, independent of its ability to nature and the well-being of people,
44
A suggested framework for sustainable development indicators
45
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
Integration of the triangle from It’s easy enough to say “some kind of
bottom to top requires good science aggregate measures of human welfare
and just and efficient political and and environmental integrity,” but not
economic systems and a culture that at all easy to produce these measures.
illuminates the higher purposes of The rest of this document is an at-
life. The focus of such a society would tempt to begin to think through how
be wholeness, not maximizing one to do it. I invite others to join in the
part of the system at the expense of thinking.
other parts. The goal of perpetual eco- In order to develop these aggre-
nomic growth would be seen as non- gate indicators, we need an informa-
sensical, partly because the finite tion system for each step in the tri-
material base cannot sustain it, partly angle. Those information systems
because human fulfillment does not depend upon the notion of several
demand it. The focus would be on kinds of capital.
quality, not quantity, and yet quan-
tity sufficient for the physical needs
of all would not be lacking. Extending the definition of capital
Therefore the most basic indicators
to natural, human, and social
of sustainable development would capital could provide an easily
be the sufficiency, efficiency, and understood base for calculating
sustainability of the entire triangle, and integrating the Daly triangle.
determined by some kind of aggre-
gate measures of:
To a bank or a university or a busi-
• real human welfare;
ness or an endowed charitable foun-
• environmental integrity; and dation, “development” means in-
• the ratio between the two, which creasing your stock of wealth, and
is a measure of the efficiency with “sustainability” means living on the
which environmental resources are income from that wealth, not eating
translated into human welfare.
into principle. No accountant would
credit as “income” a temporary burst
of money that comes from the draw-
ing down of capital faster than it is
earnings
principle expenditures replenished.
interest added That idea extends easily to “natu-
interest ral capital.” We should draw water
rate from the outflow of a lake, not drain
down the lake; catch fish at the rate at
which they regenerate, not consume
the breeding population; harvest for-
46
A suggested framework for sustainable development indicators
ests no faster than they can grow back; The Balaton working group
farm so the soil doesn’t erode. agreed unanimously that the idea of
Herman Daly captured the con- capital — all forms of capital — is
cept of natural capital in the three central to information systems for
basic “Daly Rules” for sustainability:32 sustainable development. Combined
Renewable ersourc es (fish, for- with the Daly triangle, various capi-
ests, soils, groundwaters) must be tal structures can capture develop-
used no faster than the rate at which ment and sustainability and their re-
they regenerate; lation to each other. They allow the
Nonrenewable er sourc es (min- stock-flow analysis that can make in-
eral ores, fossil fuels, fossil dicators dynamic. And they begin to
groundwaters) must be used no faster suggest a conceptual framework to
than renewable substitutes for them keep track of the linkages among
can be put into place; many forms of capital and to derive
Pollution and wastesmust be indicators that could help people and
emitted no faster than natural systems nations build up the several kinds of
can absorb them, recycle them, or wealth that are necessary for a people-
render them harmless. enriching, nature-preserving system.
These three rules suggest sustain-
ability indicators for each resource
that flows through the human Natural Capital
economy. More on that in the next (ultimate means)
section.
The World Bank is now trying Natural capital consists of the
not only to establish natural capital stocks and flows in nature from
accounts, but also to extend the con- which the human economy takes
cept to human and social capital.33 its materials and energy (sources)
Surely there is a stock or endowment and to which we throw those
of health, skills, and knowledge that materials and energy when we
can be invested in, enhanced, and are done with them (sinks).
used to produce a steady stream of
productivity, or that can be overused, The materials and energy used in the
eroded, allowed to depreciate. Surely human economy do not appear from
there must be social capital in the nowhere. Nor, when we are done with
form of functioning civic organiza- them, do they disappear. They are
tions, cultures of personal and com- taken from and return to the Earth’s 32
Herman Daly, “Toward Some
munity responsibility, efficient mar- biogeochemical systems. Operational Principles of
kets and governments, tolerance and Sustainable Development,
To borrow some useful but Ecological Economics 2 (1990): 1-6.
public trust. unbeautiful terms from engineering, 33
Serageldin, op. cit.
47
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
It would be a real
achievement if ...
L ECOSYSTE
capital assets, natural OBA M
solar GL
assets, and energy
environmental assets
were equally “real” and
subject to the same Planetary
Sources high-grade
scale of values, indeed energy
the same bookkeeping
materials
conventions. Deeper & fossil Economic
ways of thinking might fuels Subsystem
be affected. population
& capital low-grade
— Robert Solow energy
wastes
& Planetary
pollution Sinks
heat loss
we can call the flows of material and sphere by the natural capital of green
energy from nature into the economy plants photosynthesizing.
inputs, the flows of wastes back to Notice that forests are source
nature outputs,and the combined capital for the input of wood prod-
flows throughputs.Then the capi- ucts and sink capital for the output
tal/income idea can be stated clearly. of carbon dioxide. Many forms of
Throughput is the income derived natural capital play both source and
from a natural capital stock. A sink roles. Aquifers provide drinking
throughput stream of lumber and water but also may be sinks for
paper and wood fuel comes from the leached pesticides or leaked petro-
natural capital of a forest. Ground- leum. Soil provides nutrients for
water is pumped up from the natural growing crops and receives deposits
capital in the aquifer. A stream of of heavy metals from the atmosphere.
food can be obtained from the natu- The connections among the elements
ral capital of the nutrients in the soil. of natural capital — the oneness of the
On the sink side, an output flow of global system — is a major cause of
sewage can be released to the natural sustainability problems and a major
capital of organisms that break the reason why indicators (and formal
sewage back down to nutrients. The models of our complex natural sup-
Illustration after: R. Goodland, et carbon dioxide from burning fossil port systems) are so badly needed.
al., op. cit.
fuels can be removed from the atmo-
48
A suggested framework for sustainable development indicators
The human economy uses many ing (foresters, soil scientists, atmo-
kinds of throughput streams, each spheric chemists) are not in regular
associated with natural capital on contact with national accountants, and
both the source and sink end of for some (ocean fish, soil bacteria, oil
the flow. under the ground) accurate measure-
ment is very difficult to do.
Think of the throughput flows sum- Nevertheless, we could compile
moned continuously and in great vol- and organize many kinds of natural
ume by any city or nation. Water and capital measures and relate them to
many kinds of food. Oil, coal, natu- their associated throughput flows.
ral gas and other fuels. Construction That would form the basis for a natu-
lumber, plywood, cardboard, paper. ral capital accounting system.
Steel, copper, aluminum, and a host
of other metals. Rubber, plastics,
glass, cement. Tens of thousands of Natural capital is being used
kinds of chemicals.34 unsustainably if sources are
All these substances flow in from declining or sinks are increasing.
nature and flow out after use, usually
in haphazard mixes, into air, water, soils. The indicators of the sustainability
To keep track of these many of use of most forms of natural capi-
throughput flows is a large but not tal are obvious; they are the direc-
impossible task, no worse in principle tions and rates of change of sources
than keeping track of the money and sinks. As previously discussed,
flows through all industrial sectors they could be expressed dynamically
that make up the GDP. Input-out- as the ratio between use rate and res-
put tables are easily adapted to the toration rate (with 1.0 standing for
task. Material and energy flow tables, sustainability) or as the amount of
34
For illustrative throughput
combined with money flow tables, time until the resource can no longer numbers for the city of London,
should and could be an essential part be a source or sink. see H. Girardet, The Gaia Atlas of
Cities: New Directions for
of national accounting.35 Sustainable Urban Living. New
Material and energy flows through York: Doubleday, June 1993; for
Hongkong, see S. Boyden, An
the economy are at least theoretically Integrative Ecological Approach to
the Study of Human Settlements.
measurable, even though they are not Paris: Unesco, International Co-
yet always measured. It is more diffi- ordinating Council of the
Programme on Man and the
cult to keep track of the natural capi- Biosphere, 1979.
tal stocks that are the sources and sinks 35
For a pioneering example, see
of the flows — difficult because for A. Adriaanse et al., Resource
some we haven’t done it before, for Flows: The Material Basis of
Industrial Economies. Washington
others the people who do the measur- DC: World Resources Institute,
1997.
49
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
50
A suggested framework for sustainable development indicators
51
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
52
A suggested framework for sustainable development indicators
53
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
The nature and amount of built does wear out physically, that does not
capital determines the standing physically change even if prices
demand for human capital (labor change. For the moment we probably
and skills) and for throughput must construct indicators of built capi-
from natural capital (materials tal in money terms, but in a more
and energy). That fraction of built elaborate information system for sus-
capital that produces more built tainable development, we may want
capital (investment) determines to specify them in terms of output
the rate of economic growth. capacity (megawatts, tons of steel per
year, cars per year) and input require-
Built capital sits on the second level ments (fuel, labor, material per year).
of the Daly pyramid; it is intermedi-
ate means. It is a key element in inte-
grating the pyramid, because a piece Sustainability on the level of built
of built capital — a furnace, say, or a capital means investing at least
paper mill, or an irrigation system — as fast as capital depreciates.
requires a specific stream of through- Across levels it means keeping
put from natural capital (materials, en- the throughput needs of built
ergy, water) in order to function. It re- capital appropriate to the
leases a specific stream of waste and sustainable yields and absorptive
pollution. It requires particular types capacities of natural capital and
of labor and management (human keeping labor and management
capital). As long as it is running to ca- needs appropriate to the
pacity, it produces a known stream of sustainable use of human capital.
output, which is either consumption
(on the next level of the Daly pyra- To sustain built capital, investment
mid, intermediate ends) or investment must replace depreciation (in actual
(some other form of capital). productive capacity, not in money
Built capital is usually measured terms). Capital grows if investment is
in money terms — the accumulated faster than depreciation. The self-gen-
amount invested in it, or the amount erating growth of built capital (it takes
it would take to replace it at current capital to produce more capital; the
prices. There are problems with this more capital you have, the more new
way of measuring, primarily because capital you can build) is one of the sen-
money is an insufficient proxy for sitive positive feedback loops that pro-
something that is actually concrete, vides a central indicator of both sus-
that comes in many different forms tainability and development.
and capacities, that does not inflate but
54
A suggested framework for sustainable development indicators
55
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
consumer goods
household capital
service capital
industrial output
public infrastructure
investment
industrial depreciation
capital
military capital
resource–obtaining capital
pollution–abating capital
56
A suggested framework for sustainable development indicators
57
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
him or her a set of attributes, the most parents and teachers build that edu-
obvious of which — age and sex — cation level still further.
are already reported in the census. I will define attributes that inhere
Because of the long lifetimes of not to individuals but to groups as
most people, populations change social capital and discuss them in a
only slowly, with great momentum. moment.
Much about their future is predict-
able from their age structures — this
year’s five-year olds will be (minus mi- Human capital is in one sense an
gration and mortality) the twenty- intermediate means, in another
year olds of fifteen years from now sense an intermediate end.
and the sixty-five-years olds of sixty
years from now. Demographic mod- Seen as a labor force, human capital
eling can spin out the future impli- is an intermediate means, a factor of
cations of today’s population events. production, which interacts with
Modeling can also calculate the built capital and throughput from
future consequences of a crucial ex- natural capital to produce economic
ponential growth indicator: net output. As the health and education
population growth rate. (See the dis- of a population increase, other forms
cussion of positive feedback loops of capital can be more productive.
earlier in this report.) Human capital, if we had a way of
accounting for it in money terms,
might prove to be at various stages of
Along with numbers, ages, and development the most lucrative pos-
genders, human capital can be sible investment on pure grounds of
measured by attributes such as economic return. (That becomes
health and education. again a matter of balancing the vari-
ous types of capital so they do not
Demographic databases can also in- hold each other back.)
clude information about attributes Human capital is also, however,
imbued within the minds and bod- an intermediate end. Education and
ies of people — most obviously their health (and other individual at-
levels of education and health. Invest- tributes) have purposes beyond mak-
ment (especially in service and hu- ing a person more productive in the
man capital) can build up those at- economy. They also serve the top of
tributes. Neglect can allow them to the triangle — the ability to lead a
depreciate. Investment in human joyful, fulfilling life. If we could mea-
capital can also be seen as a positive sure the degree to which human capi-
feedback loop — the more education tal serves ultimate goals, investment
in a population, the more educated in it might look like an even better
58
A suggested framework for sustainable development indicators
deal. Relative to built capital, human trying to untangle this knot for years.
capital probably delivers more well- It might be clearer not to try to make
being from less money, less built capi- a clean separation of what is actually
tal, and less material and energy a systematic partnership. Through-
throughput than any other invest- puts and outputs might best be speci-
ment (with the possible exception of fied for the human-and-built-capital
social capital). system as a whole.
59
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
In the table is an example from India of the kinds of information revealed by data systems built upon time.40 Notice the strong
differences between women and men and between landless and landed women.
Men
sleep 43 49 47 48 47 48
survival 9 6 6 2 3 2
reprod. work 6 2 2 1 2 1
wage work 19 22 30 26 28 26
learning 5 4 3 6 6 8
recreation 15 14 10 13 11 13
religion 4 4 2 4 4 3
60
A suggested framework for sustainable development indicators
sustainable society would be that life We could think of public trust as a Equally important is the
stock of capital, decreased by tell- social side, and here we
would slo-o-o-w down so there would
ing lies and increased by telling the
not be a perpetual sense of scarcity mean equity, social
truth. (Perhaps each lie or truth
about time. But we didn’t have time should be weighed by the number
mobility, social cohesion,
in our hectic five-day workshop to de- of people who hear it. That way each participation,
velop this idea! of us every day builds or depreciates empowerment, cultural
the public trust, but public figures identity, and institutional
who speak to millions can build or development.... It is, to
erode the public trust far more
my mind, an essential
Social Capital quickly than can ordinary citizens.)
part of the definition of
(intermediate ends) Tolerance of ethnic, religious, or other sustainability, because,
diversity might be a social capital let me remind you, the
stock, built up by actions and words
Social capital is a stock of that demonstrate good will, torn
neglect of that side leads
attributes (knowledge, trust, down by actions and words that ex- to institutions that are
efficiency, honesty) that inheres press hatred. incapable of responding
not to a single individual, but to to the needs of society.
Efficient, well-regulated markets.
the human collectivity.
We see the consequences
Technology and the ability to evolve of that in tragedies from
new technology. Somalia to Rwanda and
When you start thinking about so- Orderliness, reliability, creativity, cul- from Liberia to Bosnia.
ture.
cial capital, you begin seeing it — Ismail Serageldin
around you. Knowledge is clearly an The ability to treasure what is valu-
able in the old and to seize what is
accumulated stock, which grows
useful in the new.
through inflows of research, experi-
Museums, folksongs, jokes, city
ment, new understanding and is
parks, sports teams, scouts.
drained by outflows of forgetting.
Parliamentary rules and other social All these things must have some-
thing to do with social capital. Adapt-
behaviors that allow large groups to
ability, resilience, the capacity to learn
have fair and purposeful discussions and reorganize, repair damage or
are learned painstakingly over time change direction, maintain a steady
and must be maintained against de- course, muster resources for major
efforts, all of these are dependent on
preciation. The ability of a house-
having an adequate “stock” of social
hold to clean itself, of a community “capital.”
to police itself, of businesses to make
and enforce contracts, of citizens to Indicator selection for social capital is
propose, debate, pass, and obey laws difficult indeed. Suggested social capi-
— all these could be considered so- tal indicators often measure depletion
cial capital. They can be invested in. or malfunction: crime, for example.
They depreciate. They don’t change Crime is surely an indicator of decline
quickly. They bear the history of all in social capital, driven by inadequate
past investments and depreciations. investment in other kinds of capital.
61
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
Social capital is terrifically varied, tion streams are organized and ac-
incredibly hard to measure, but most cessed. Wisdom is the capacity to uti-
of us not only acknowledge its exist- lize knowledge in decision-making, to
ence but can sense its presence or integrate knowledge and informa-
absence. “You can feel it when you tion with new experience, to see the
walk down the street,” one member system whole, to grasp the necessity
of our workshop said. It is based in and yet the uncertainty of models,
the integrity and efficiency of insti- to move between and within levels
tutions, information systems, and hu- in a model, to be able to distinguish
man relationships. between the system itself and mod-
els of the system, and to make ad-
justments to models as necessary.
Just as time is a key currency for Trust, relational capacity, and the
human capital, information may efficacy of a society’s institutions all
be a key currency for social depend on the quality of information
capital. flows within a society. It is a central
tenet of systems theory that a system
Social capital is generally understood cannot be managed without adequate
in terms of “cohesion,” but its pri- flows of information.
mary component is information.
More accurately, social capital is em-
bodied in dense, meaningful, and Another possible measure of
truthful information flows. social capital would be density or
Indicators of social capital would frequency or intensity of human
be especially useful if they could dis- relationships.
criminate not only quantity of infor-
mation (which can be measured by How often do you see your relatives,
stocks and flows of megabytes), but and for what length of time? Does
quality of information — the differ- that measure the stability, resilience,
ence between data, information, functionality of your family?
knowledge, and wisdom. Data are How many neighbors do you
bits of information, which can rap- know by name, talk to often, under-
idly become distracting, overwhelm- stand something about their lives?
ing, stupefying, or a management Does that give an idea of the social
nuisance (as is currently the case integrity of your neighborhood?
with most of the Worldwide Web). Do you have a face-to-face human
Information is data sorted and se- relationship with your employer or
lected to “make a difference” to some employees? With the makers and sup-
system or some decision. Knowledge pliers of the things you buy? With
is understanding of the way informa- the people who teach your children,
62
A suggested framework for sustainable development indicators
63
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
If the world’s Social capital can be a high- could be attained for all people on
population had the leverage transformative factor in Earth. Somewhere within the con-
productivity of the the process of channeling ultimate cept of social capital, combined with
Swiss, the consumption means into ultimate ends. clever technical design of built capi-
habits of the Chinese, tal and loving development of human
the egalitarian instincts If a society has a low crime rate, a capital, is the capacity to meet mate-
of the Swedes, and the
history of common endeavor, and rial needs materially and non-mate-
social discipline of the
habits of timeliness and cleanliness, rial needs non-materially with great
Japanese, then the
planet could support then it probably can organize a pleas- efficiency in the use of ultimate
many times its current ant, efficient mass transportation sys- means.
population without tem that gives its citizens high mo-
privation for anyone. bility with minimal cost in household
On the other hand, if capital (cars) and natural capital Rough indicators of social capital
the world’s population (steel, glass, rubber, fossil fuels, con- are better than nothing.
had the productivity of crete, air pollution). High mobility
Chad, the consumption can be obtained at low cost because It is tempting to refuse to deal with
habits of the United of the high level of social capital. anything so messy (and politically
States, the inegalitarian If a culture allows men to feel touchy) as social capital. It’s all too
instincts of India, and manly without having to be sur- easy for experts in science or econom-
the social discipline of rounded by tons of polished steel pro- ics, who like to deal in clean concepts
Argentina, then the
pelled at high speeds, that culture and precise numbers, to shift the
planet could not
could allow the realization of an im- topic quickly to prices or kilojoules
support anywhere near
its current numbers. portant ultimate end with great sav- or numbers of species.
ings of all kinds of ultimate and in- While we didn’t make enormous
— Lester Thurow, Technology
termediate means. headway on social capital in our own
Review, Aug/Sept 1986
It is well established for most of workshop, we recommend that this
the industrialized nations that effi- topic become a major area of discus-
ciency in the design of built capital sion, involving many kinds of people.
can produce the same amounts of We believe it is possible and vi-
economic output with half as much, tally important to find ways to mea-
or even one-tenth as much, energy.42 sure social capital, even if those ways
It could be true that efficiency in the are subjective (remember, all indica-
design of social capital could produce tors are subjective). It is important
equivalent well being with one-hun- partly because social capital can be
dredth or one-thousandth as much such a powerful mediator in the trans-
42
energy, materials, and built capital. lation of ultimate means to ultimate
See E. von Weiszacker, A.
Lovins, and H. Lovins, Factor This possibility gives hope that truly ends, and partly because without any
Four: Doubling Wealth - Halving
Resource Use. Washington, DC:
sustainable means of meeting the measure of social capital, many pur-
Island Press, 1997. highest and most important ends ported “development” plans may eat
64
A suggested framework for sustainable development indicators
• voter turnout.
Social capital is, essentially, a “shared wisdom index.“ Defining it requires a significant amount of wisdom!
65
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
66
A suggested framework for sustainable development indicators
67
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
We will know we’re ultimate ends. (I could think of oth- suppose we could measure the
really talking about ers I might add, such as beauty and throughput from nature that is be-
sustainable transcendence/enlightenment/grace.) ing used to achieve that well-being.
development when the If we search sincerely and if we Then we would be able to come close
conversation shifts from are open to answers that may not look to the three indicators that answer the
efficiency to sufficiency. like scientific formulae, I believe that central questions of sustainable de-
Efficiency is
ultimate ends can be defined, at least velopment.
quantifiable and
qualitatively, and that the definitions
satisfies the Cartesian
mind. Sufficiency will are not so different from one human • Are people well-off, satisfied,
drive the Cartesian soul to another. We may disagree happy? (Sufficiency and equity —
mind crazy. hotly about our models of what top of the triangle.)
means can lead to the ends, but when • Is the most possible well-being
— Wes Jackson
it comes to the ends themselves, the achieved with the least possible
essential human values, we are, quite throughput of material and energy?
( Efficiency of the translation
simply, all human.
mechanisms from the bottom to
Even if we agree on no more than the top of the triangle.)
this — that the dominant cultures are
• Are the natural systems that sup-
mobilizing enormous flows of re- port the material and energy
sources, spewing out unsupportable throughput healthy, resilient, and
quantities of wastes, building huge full of evolutionary potential? (Sus-
tainability, bottom of the triangle.)
capital structures, and not clearly
achieving happiness — then there is
already a strong reason to stop using
indicators that count a larger physi- The information system from
cal economy as “good” and to search which these central indicators
for indicators of more importance. can be derived will measure
capital stocks at every level and
the flows that increase, decrease,
and connect those stocks.
Integration (translating
ultimate means into
ultimate ends) An integrated account of the
interlinked stocks and flows at all lev-
els of the pyramid, quantified where
The central indicators of possible, estimated otherwise, could
sustainable development will provide the information base from
integrate the whole Daly triangle. which sustainable development indi-
cators are derived. (Just as underly-
Suppose that we could, by whatever ing accounts of interlinked money
means you can imagine, assess the flows provide the base from which the
well-being of a given society. And GDP is derived.)
68
A suggested framework for sustainable development indicators
consumer goods
household capital
service capital
industrial output
public infrastructure
industrial
investment
capital
depreciation intermediate means
military capital
resource–obtaining capital
pollution–abating capital
natural
capital ultimate means
69
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
These stocks and flows should be There are systematic schemes for
measured in whatever units make sense; assessing the total viability of a
units that will be quite different at dif- system. These schemes can serve
ferent levels of the system. There is a as checklists for sustainable
tendency in economics, which mea- development indicators.
sures almost everything with the
numeraire of money, to assume that One of these schemes is Hartmut
because money is interchangeable, then Bossel’s set of orientors, which mea-
all forms of capital are intersubstitut- sure the ability of any system to meet
able. If there is not enough labor, sub- environmental challenges by appro-
stitute built capital. If there are not priate system responses.47 There are
enough resources, compensate with seven Bossel orientors, which can be
more resource-obtaining capital. measured for systems at any level,
To some extent intersubstitutabil- from a single organism to a whole
ity is possible, and within that possi- society. They are:
bility arise all the marginal cost and • existence (the ability to sustain
benefit questions that are interesting physical needs);
to economists. But, as Herman Daly
• psychological needs (the ability to
points out, it just doesn’t work to sub- generate internal well-being, satis-
stitute fishing boats for fish, or saw- faction, happiness — applicable to
mills for trees. The absence of trees human systems only);
renders sawmills valueless, as the ab- • effectiveness (the ability to take ac-
sence of fish does for fishing boats. tions that produce desired effects);
Larger pumps can counter a falling • freedom of action;
groundwater table for awhile, but this
• security;
substitution is not sustainable. Built
capital and natural capital are more • adaptability;
70
A suggested framework for sustainable development indicators
71
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
7. Sample indicators
72
Sample indicators
73
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
A thoughtful list of fourty-one indicators developed for the United States includes the following, all
of which are available with significant time series.48 Notice that many are grounded in critical
capital stocks and in leading-indicator rates of flow.
• Labor productivity • Acres of major terrestrial eco- • Children living in families with
systems intact only one parent
• Federal debt to GDP ratio
• Contaminants in biota • Teacher training level
• Investment as a percent of GDP
• Accumulated quantity of spent • Contributions of time and money
• Energy consumption per capita
nuclear fuel to charity
and per $ of GDP
• Status of stratospheric ozone • Births to single mothers
• Materials consumption per
capita and per $ of GDP • Greenhouse gas emissions • School enrollment by level
48
U.S. Interagency Working
Group on Sustainable Develop-
ment Indicators, op. cit.
74
Sample indicators
75
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
8. Implementing, monitoring,
testing, evaluating, and
improving indicators
Indicators don’t guarantee results. shop did not get into them; and we
But results are impossible need not apologize for that. It is suf-
without proper indicators. And ficient to take one step at a time. The
proper indicators, in themselves, design of the instrument panel is ob-
can produce results. viously a critical step, without which
the whole system can never fly. There
Designing the instrument panel is just is a good reason why so many policy
one small step in the journey of sus- bodies, international agencies,
tainable development. Getting indica- funders, and systems thinkers are fo-
tors actually measured, reported, in- cusing upon the design of indicators
stitutionalized, evaluated, and im- of sustainable development. They all
proved are further steps that require sense that if the indicators aren’t right,
enormous creativity, tact, and energy. then no amount of measuring, re-
Whole books can be (and have been) porting, funding, action, political
written about these steps.49 will, or evaluation will lead toward
Then, beyond the indicators, is the sustainable development. A system
challenge of action, the connection of without an accurate information sys-
indicators to actual instruments of tem, without information clearly re-
change, the creation of political will, lated to its real goals, cannot reach
the compilation of resources, the those goals.
49
See, for example, P. Hardi and evaluation of results, etc., etc. Of course, conversely, having the
T. Zdan eds., and “The
Community Indicators
I can’t presume to launch into indicators right does not guarantee
Handbook”, both op. cit. those topics here; the Balaton work- implementation, action, resources, or
76
Implementing, monitoring, testing, evaluating, and improving indicators
77
Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
real, compelling. Perhaps they need will clarify their information needs,
not require a corps of bureaucrats to and come to new understandings of
obtain or maintain. People with train- how to implement change. Maybe
ing in advertising, public relations, (almost certainly) we will learn as we
focus groups, graphic art may be go that the whole notion of sustain-
more helpful than people with exper- able development opens up a larger
tise in database management. and more challenging set of oppor-
tunities than we had realized.
So it is tempting, given all the ca-
The process of finding, veats and challenges in this report and,
implementing, and improving indeed, in every report on sustainable
sustainable development indicators development indicators, to be daunted,
will not be done right at first. to postpone the task, to wait for more
Nevertheless, it is urgent to begin. thinking, more modeling, more agree-
ment — to wait for perfection.
It’s important to remind ourselves of While we are waiting for perfec-
the magnitude of our task. We don’t tion, fisheries are collapsing, greenhouse
know what an advanced, sustainable, gases are accumulating, species are dis-
equitable society looks like. We have appearing, soils are eroding, forests are
never seen one. We are required to overcut, people are suffering.
envision a cultural, technical, social So it is important to get some
revolution, or evolution, as thorough- preliminary indicators out there and
going as the Agricultural Revolution into use, the best we can do at the
or the Industrial Revolution, and moment. That way, as long as we are
then to invent the instruments and willing to evaluate and make correc-
information feedbacks that will guide tions, we can start to learn, which is
us through this tremendous transfor- the only way we can ever achieve sus-
mation. tainable development.
We will not get it right the first It should not be so difficult to
time. come up with indicators that are al-
Even if there were consensus to- ready better than the ones we now
morrow on a selection of indicators use. As long as we regard them with
and shared understanding of their humility, as tentative, subject to cor-
application, still there is a high prob- rection and improvement, tools for
ability that some or all indicators may learning rather than final, expert pro-
turn out to be misleading. Or maybe nouncements, we will be on our way.
the monitoring system will not be
adequate, or the interpretation of in-
dicators will be faulty, or the actors We need to learn, but we need to waste
and decision-makers in the system no time with our learning.
78