Lahore School of Aviation

The University of Lahore

Assignment Topic

current and forthcoming threats in civil aviation

PROGRAM: BSAM SEMESTER & SECTION:

7-C

COURSE: AVIATION SECURITY REG NO: 70072536

INSTRUCTOR: ADNAN KASHIF NAME: MUNEEB UL HAQ

Remarks:_____________________________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________

Marks: / 10

Instructor’s Signature

Threat
It is defined as an expression of intention to inflict evil, injury, or damage

Threat in Civil Aviation

Something or a situation that poses a risk or a likelihood of danger or jeopardy to

the safety of Civil Aviation

Types of threats in Civil Aviation

1. Unlawful seizure of aircraft/airport

Unlawful interference is considered a serious hazard to aviation because the consequences of

such acts may impact not only the aircraft and those onboard but also potentially high number
of people or critical installations on the ground. Forcible intrusion on board an aircraft, at an
airport or on the premises of an aeronautical facility,
 Unlawful seizure of aircraft in flight,
 Unlawful seizure of aircraft on the ground,
 Hostage-taking on board aircraft or on aerodromes,
 Introduction on board an aircraft or at an airport of a weapon or hazardous device or
material intended for criminal purposes,
  Communication of false information such as to jeopardize the safety of an aircraft in
flight or on the ground, of passengers, crew, ground personnel or the general public, at
an airport or on the premises of a civil aviation facility.

2. Cyber threats

With the advancement of technology, cyber security has become an increasing concern
especially since these types of attacks are inexpensive to carry out. They can target computer
systems on the ground as well as those used while aircraft are in-flight, causing a broad range
of disruptions and damage.

3. Insider threats

The unpredictability of an individual becoming an insider threat is unsettling. Insider threats

tend to have access to restricted areas and sensitive information that ordinary civilians do not
have access to. Exploitation, tampering, fraud, espionage, theft, and sabotage are only a few
things insider threats are capable of.

4. MANPADS

Man-Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS) are surface-to-air missiles that can be
carried and fired by a single individual or carried by several individuals.  MANPADS – also
known as shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles – pose a serious threat to passenger air travel,
the commercial aviation industry, and military aircraft around the world. Since 1975, 40
civilian aircraft have been hit by MANPADS, causing about 28 crashes and more than 800
deaths around the world.

5. Drones

With more Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) being operated by end consumers and
businesses, the possibility of drone-aircraft collisions increases. In addition, weaponized
drones become a credible threat. One of the biggest fears about drones came to pass when a
drone collided with a commercial aircraft on approach to Jean Lesage International Airport in
Quebec, Canada.
6. Chemical Attack

The release of chemical agents, poisonous gases, and toxins is a new kind of threat tactic. Use
of these to target aviation could be deadly if released on airport premises or within a flying
aircraft.

7. Laser attack

Laser pointers may seem like an innocent gadget, but they can be used in malicious ways.
When lasers are pointed at aircraft, the cockpit illuminates so brightly that pilots can feel
disoriented and experience temporarily blindness putting the lives of passengers and civilians
at risk. Between January 2009 and June 2015 more than 8,998 laser incidents across the
country were reported to the UK Civil Aviation Authority.

Why civil aviation is an attractive target?

Terrorists were targeting airliners with their attacks long before the 9/11 hijackings. Terrorist
groups continued to view civil aviation as an attractive target, with the aim of causing substantial
loss of life, economic damage and disruption to connectivity between States, just because Many
States lacked the capacity and resources required to implement effective measures to strengthen
civil aviation security.
Some 16 years after the 11 September attacks, terrorists remained determined to target civil
aviation, Despite the many improvements that had been made in security, serious threats
remained, which was evident by the recent attacks against aircraft in Egypt and Somalia. 
Nevertheless, it was up to all Member States to take the necessary steps to ensure that one weak
link did not become a catastrophe.
Cargo and mail continue to represent vulnerabilities in the system. Screening cargo and mail at airports is
difficult because individual packages or pieces of mail are usually batched into larger shipments that are
more difficult to screen. There were several recent examples of terrorists’ persistent desire to bring
death to the skies, which meant that States could not relent in their efforts to keep their citizens
safe.
Those who believed their airports were safe from terrorist targeting were not just wrong, but were
irresponsible in Implementing ICAO’s agreed standards yet it was a challenge for some, no
matter how good their intentions are but we can’t put hundreds of souls in risk. In addition, the
dramatic nature of airliner attacks attracts media attention and can help inspire fear in the
populace, two major aims of most terrorist operations.

What will the threats to aviation security be in future?

Aviation security threats and risks evolve rapidly and manifest themselves in different forms.
Recently, there has been a significant shift in the types of risk impacting the civil aviation
industry across the globe. 
It is expected that eight key threats will dominate the 2040 landscape:
• Cyber
• Insider
• Terrorism
• Activism
• Autonomous/Unmanned Vehicles
• Air Cargo and Supply Chain
• Mental Illness
• Biological and Infectious Diseases
In 2040 vulnerabilities will exist that could be exploited by those seeking to do harm or simply
disrupt. Some of these vulnerabilities already exist in today’s transport system, 2040 will bring
with it a heavy reliance on data, connectivity and automation. While this vulnerability exists to
some extent today, the situation will be much more critical in 20 years’ time. Moreover, Mental
health issues, which as noted, are a growing societal problem, may result in direct threats to
aviation security, or may simply provide a larger group of individuals who are more vulnerable
to exploitation.

Cyber
Cyber While not new, the possible impact of cyber security threats will be greater in 2040 thanks
to the increased reliance on technology, connectivity, data and Artificial Intelligence (AI).
Cyber-attacks may evolve from low scale/annoyance to sophisticated crippling incidents. This
will exponentially increase the possible attack paths available to those seeking to infiltrate and
exploit the system. Air Traffic Control (ATC) and aircraft themselves are not immune to cyber-
attacks. There are risks that aircraft themselves will be deliberately targeted, or that ATC systems
will be hacked to send incorrect information to pilots, with potentially fatal consequences.

Insider
The insider threats may or may not be terrorism related. Insiders may present less risk to physical
security systems, instead choosing the virtual (cyber) realm as their preferred attack
methodology. As a result, the scope and range of insider threat widens – from those that simply
have physical access to restricted areas at airports, to those that have access to systems and data.
Terrorism
Terrorism Terrorist attacks against aviation are expected to continue. As noted above, in 2040
there will likely be an increased focus on the use of insiders and cyber as an attack vector.
Traditional attack methodologies (i.e. Use of Improvised Explosive Devices (ieds) and weapons)
will probably continue, with targets possibly expanding beyond the aircraft itself (i.e. Landside,
cargo, critical infrastructure) and new technologies such as drones could be used as a more
covert means of deployment, facilitation and/or reconnaissance. With a more distributed network
and an increasing cohort of potential lone wolf attackers, terrorists could seek to
opportunistically exploit disruptions caused by IT and power issues, extreme weather events,
strikes/protests etc. These types of attacks would likely be low complexity, targeting crowds of
people gathered in public areas of airport terminals during such disruptions. Thus, these types of
attack may be difficult to predict ahead of time, and as a result, harder to prevent. Another area
of concern is the evolution of the suicide bomber. Rather than carrying explosives, the suicide
attacker could be carrying infectious diseases or bacteria (i.e. The individual becomes the
weapon). Such attacks may be difficult to detect, and even harder to prevent once the attacker
has reached the airport. Impact may not be limited to a single airport, but rather could rapidly
spread throughout the interconnected transport network resulting in major worldwide pandemics.
Activism
Political activism has only recently started to touch aviation operations, with protest and
disruptions taking place on airport premises making it difficult for security agencies to both
protect passengers and protestors as well as carry out necessary security functions. Also, as
noted, terrorist organizations could seek to take advantage of such activities (which are generally
well publicized), in order to create maximum damage. Thus, this potential combination of violent
activism and terrorism is a concerning problem for the future.

Autonomous/unmanned vehicles
Although drones and autonomous/unmanned vehicles offer numerous opportunities for the
aviation sector, as well as for urban planning and d society in general, they also pose possible
security risks. Thus, this is one area where further research and development is required so that
the aviation sector is better prepared to deal with this emerging threat.
Drones and other land and water based autonomous vehicles may be used to:
• breach perimeter and airport drainage systems to deposit prohibited items and weapons airside.
• cause major disruption to airport and airline operations (either in isolation or in swarms).
• directly target an aircraft or airport facilities with the intention of causing mass loss of life.
Mental Illness
As noted previously, mental illness is on the rise. This manifests as both a vulnerability, but also
a possible direct threat. In terms of aviation security specifically, there is concern over the rate of
mental illness amongst flight crew. Most of which today is unreported and untreated, increasing
the risk that flight crew suffering from mental illness could pose a security risk to the aircraft.
Biological Threats and Infectious Disease
As discussed previously, there is concern that in the coming years terrorists could move away from use of
conventional ieds towards use of biological weapons and infectious diseases. Today these types of
weapons are considered too volatile and difficult to transport, thus have not received much focus.
However, in the future, drones or the terrorists themselves could be the distribution mechanism for such
attacks. More concerningly, passengers could even be used as the distribution method, having been
infected before they reach the airport. These kinds of attacks may initially be difficult to detect, and even
more difficult to contain and trace.
Countermeasures

Industry has started to address these challenges, but not necessarily in a concerted and
coordinated manner. As the world evolves, industry must collaborate towards a common goal;
to make air transport a safe and sustainable mode of transport for passengers and goods
throughout the world. In this regard there are some general steps that can be taken to help
industry and governments better prepare and respond, including:

 The sector needs to be quicker at identifying, assessing and responding to threats and
vulnerabilities. At the heart of this is the need to improve risk assessment and risk
management.
 Recognition of security measures and regimes across borders is the basis for the entire
international aviation security framework. Its continuation is essential to the protection of the
sector. Increasingly, inter-organizational cooperation will be required, with a need for agreed
mechanisms to better share passenger and cargo information between states, government
organizations and private stakeholders.
 The speed at which standards are adopted and upgraded needs to be improved. More targeted
research and development and better routes to market need to be established, to ensure that
technology, once developed, can be readily deployed in airports and aviation facilities
globally.
 continued use of human intervention and management for critical tasks will need to be
balanced against automation, technology and processes to ensure we don’t become overly
reliant on one or the other.
 In order to combat the cyber security and insider threats (particularly exploitation of increased
connectivity and automation), IT and Security need to become better integrated. Rather than
treating these as two separate functions (as most do today), cyber experts should be integrated
into security teams so that they can provide specific advice and counter measures to the cyber
security threats aviation security operations are faced with.
 There is an urgent need to invest in research and development, for both detection and defeat
technologies for use against autonomous/unmanned vehicles. Capability to intercept such
vehicles before they reach restricted air space or airport facilities would also be beneficial,
however may be more challenging to achieve. Successful integration of these vehicles,
particularly drones, into traditional airspace could help airports and authorities more quickly
understand which pose a threat and which do not
 Increased systems testing is essential. This means tests of physical security systems, but also
virtual systems. Red teaming could play an important role in this regard.
 With the ability to track and trace cargo from point A to point B, screening technologies,
particularly those for palletized/containerized cargo need to be rapidly developed. Failure to
prioritize this will see cargo become an increasingly attractive attack vector.
 Mental illness risk could be exacerbated by working conditions such as longer working
hours/shorter breaks, shortage of flight crew to meet growing demand and fear of stigma or
reprisals if they seek support.
 In order to reduce the likelihood that disruptions are exploited, improved situational awareness
and inter agency cooperation will be required when it comes to demonstrations and planned
activism activities. Importantly, security measures may need to be stepped up in order to make
it harder for terrorists or violent activists to take advantage of such situations.