Research paper draft: Rising Global Temperatures and their impact on water reserves

In this paper I will look to discuss the effects of rising global temperatures and consequently
water reserves. I chose this topic as I grew up in a country where there was an annual
average of two to three days of precipitation (1) as well as a daily average temperature of
36.5 degrees Celsius. This extreme climate compared to the world’s average, 13.6 degrees
Celsius (2), allowed me to experience a unique part of this world and ultimately understand
the impacts of living in a more extreme environment can have on a nation.

Part 1: The Cause

Source 1: https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/267/2018/esd-9-267-2018.pdf In a not-so-

far future, we will likely see nations suffering from an increase in mean temperatures by 1.5-
2.0 Degrees Celsius. Global warming has already had major effects in nations which are
relatively low sea-levels such as the Netherlands, although they are a unique example due
to their rich history in Dam crafting. For example, the Philippines is directly threatened from
rising sea levels and could potentially lose the red highlighted areas within the next 30 years
at this current rate.

The Paris Accords meeting in 2015 was created in order to get the most powerful nations in
the world to agree upon a set of guidelines in order to reduce the current rate of climate
change the world was experiencing. One of the major impacts I wish to highlight is the
predicted increase in annual global temperatures. Temperature is the main component that
‘climate change’ uses on the world. Increased carbon emissions as a result of
industrialization results in an increased amount of heat being trapped in the atmosphere.
This is the cause of the rise in global temperatures and, as I will illustrate, results in a
decrease in global precipitation and ultimately causes drought.
The graph can be used to illustrate the unfathomable impact the Industrial period has had
on global temperatures. From 1850-1900, it is quite evident to see that temperatures were
constant during the fifty-year period. Then as we progress through the 19 th century, we can
see a slow but very steady rise from 1920 all the way up to roughly 1980. It is at this point
where we start to reach our current gradient that the human race has been unable to shake
ever since.

The orange highlighted areas indicate the first major point that was brought up at the
Accords. An increase in global temperatures by a mean of 1.5 degrees Celsius could either
happen from 2027-2038 or from 2029-2047. The determining factor here is whether or not
the accords are adhered to. There were two guidelines set out, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. RCP8.5
is the more pessimistic of the two and assumes that the world doesn’t take enough action
to mitigate the damage we have already done. If we were to continue on this track, we
would reach a 1.5 degrees Celsius rise by 2038 latest and a 2.0-degree Celsius rise by 2042
at the earliest and 2053 at the latest. Compared to the alternative outcome, RCP4.5, we
could see a 2 degrees Celsius rise by earliest 2053 and latest 2081. What is most interesting
is that RCP4.5, if adhered to, would likely result in a decrease in the gradient of the rise in
global temperatures.

The implications on certain climates globally, particularly those highlighted in the Earth
Systems Dynamics Article (X) such as the Amazon, Nebraska and Sub-Saharan Africa is that a
rise in global temperatures will lead to an increase in droughts. ‘Less Economically
Developed Nations’ such as those found in sub-Saharan Africa are at an extremely high risk
if the world continues to stand by and allow the current trend to continue. These countries
rely heavily on crops to feed their population as well as supply drinking water to its people.
If the amount of annual precipitation falls quicker than their ability to adapt to these
changing conditions, then Countries such as Burkina Faso and Angola will almost certainly
face Famine. In contrast, the State of Nebraska was also highlighted as a higher risk area in
terms of the rate of increase in mean annual temperatures. Therefore, it is also in the
interest of those living in ‘More Economically Developed Nations’ to find a solution to these
changing conditions, if they are to continue to ignore the guidelines from the Paris
Agreement.
 Part 2: The solution
The United Arab Emirates, the country in which I was raised, has been working on a
potential solution to such changes in global climate.

Source 2: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acsnano.7b06114 Cloud seeding is the

process by which chemicals containing specific molecules are released into the atmosphere
which absorb water droplets in the air. The aggregate result is the formation of clouds which
more often than not can be collected and stored for future and current use. The United
Arab Emirates has heavily invested in cloud seeding technology as an alternative to just
water salinization as global warming is becoming a more pressing concern globally.

As you can see from graph 2.1, the project tested three different molecules at three
different sizes to see what the water droplet concentration would be over time. The trend
over the graphs is that the designed molecule ‘CSNT’ is by far more effective at absorbing
water droplets compared to Sodium Chloride or general background molecules (dust, sand
etc.). As the size of the molecules decreased, the effectiveness of the molecules
consequently increased. The main benefit to the decreased molecule size is that it allows
them to fit more molecules into a gas release chamber; therefore, increasing the amount
released over time which ultimately results in a higher chance of clouds forming. Water
storages are spread throughout the nation in the desert and the Rocky Mountains. The
water collected then gets sent to be sanitized and bottled for the population to drink. The
United Arab Emirates relies purely on non-natural methods to obtain drinking water, hence,
as sea acidity levels continue to rise it is becoming critical to find another way to source
drinking water.

Graph 2 Illustrates the testing that took place to work out which molecule was the best to
use for the project. The test was done in different relative humidity’s to simulate the varying
climate that the nation experiences. In the summer months, it can reach up to 75-80%
humidity compared to 5-10% during the winter. Therefore, it was paramount to find which
molecules performed well in both extremes. In figure 1, the control molecule was Pure
Sodium Chloride and it is immediately obvious that it underperforms comparatively. In the
lower RH values, CSNT-1 performed significantly better in absorbing water droplets than any
of the other molecules; however, CSNT-3 rises a lot earlier compared to the others as the
humidity level starts to pass 65%. Therefore, the best molecules to use for the seeding
project would. Be CSNT-1 in the winter and CSNT-3 as it starts to move into summer.
In summary, It is paramount that not only Nations look to decrease their contribution to
global warming (particularly the G7 Nations), but to also look for solutions if all else fails.
The consequences might not be immediate for those living in more prosperous economies,
yet it is immoral to just stand by and watch as poorer nations suffer for the sins of others.

Sources:

1. - "Climate (Average Temperatures:1977–2015;Precipitation:1967-2009)". Dubai

Meteorological Office. Retrieved  20 January 2019.
2. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202003 Global climate report – March 2020
3. https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acsnano.7b06114
4. https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/267/2018/esd-9-267-2018.pdf