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Company Report

Hungary

Trucking

Waberer's International BUY

August 22, 2017


INITIATION OF COVERAGE - OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE
COMBINED WITH ACQUISITIONS
Price: HUF 5,039.00

Bloomberg: > We initiate our coverage of Waberer’s with a Buy recommendation and a twelve-month
[WABERERS HB] target price of EUR 24.2 (HUF 7,345.5) per share, a figure derived from a DCF model
Market Cap: based on a detailed financial forecast that includes the recently-acquired Polish
EUR 293.70 transport company LINK, which will be consolidated from 2H17. A peer group
valuation supports the DCF-suggested target price.
Outstanding Shares:
17.69 m > Waberer’s International is a Hungarian-based transportation and logistics provider with
its own standardized and modern fleet of around 3,700 trucks (1H17) operating in the
One Month Avg. EU and enjoys the estimated 4% p.a. growth of the international freight market.
Daily Trading vol.
(USD m): 0.24 > As it is effectively the biggest own fleet player in the EU, many scale advantages are
52 week High/Low: visible: low maintenance costs, purchasing power due to bulk purchasing of trucks and
HUF 5,199.00 / HUF fuel, and a high load factor. The latter is also because the internally developed
4,576.00 operational IT systems are designed to optimize freight carry time and minimize the
idle time of each truck. Outstanding loaded ratios of around 92% demonstrate the
effectiveness of these systems.

> At the next review of BUX membership on the 1 September, Waberer’s most probably
will be included as at least three of the five criteria expected to be fulfilled according to
Erste calculations. This may bring some additional demand on stock from the funds
having BUX index as benchmark.

> Different valuation metrics led to a TP of EUR 24.2 (HUF 7,345.5) per share – a
significant, more than 40% upside, compared to the present share price. In the
detailed financial model, including the effect of he recently acquired Polish transport
company, LINK, from July 1 this year, was the basis for the valuation. The DCF
valuation was the basis for the determination of the TP, while for cross checking, the
peer group multiples (P/E, P/EBITDA, P/EBIT and ROE regression – P/B) show a
significantly higher value in many cases.

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Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Erste Group Research – Company Report

Waberer’s International
Initiated with Buy

EUR mn 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e 52 weeks


Net sales 572.4 709.6 825.5 889.5 5,400
EBITDA 69.2 89.7 103.7 111.5 5,300
EBIT 17.2 34.3 41.7 47.6 5,200
Net result after min. 6.2 19.6 23.4 27.2
5,100
5,000
EPS (EUR) 0.43 1.12 1.33 1.55
4,900
CEPS (EUR) 4.05 4.30 4.86 5.18
4,800
BVPS (EUR) 7.34 9.76 11.01 12.55 4,700
Div./share (EUR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Waberer's International BUX
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.0 5.1 4.5
P/E (x) 14.8 12.5 10.7 Performance 12M 6M 3M 1M
P/CE (x) 3.9 3.4 3.2 in EUR 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Share price (HUF) close as of 18/08/2017 5,039.0 Reuters WABE.BU Free float 28.0%
Number of shares (mn) 17.7 Bloomberg
WABERERS HB Shareholders
Market capitalization (EUR mn) 293.7 Div. Ex-date CEE Transport Holding BV (71.99%)
Enterprise value (EUR mn) 536.9 Target price 7,345.5 Homepage: www.waberers.com

Analyst:
József Miró
Operational excellence combined with acquisitions
+36 1 235 5131
jozsef.miro@ersteinvestment.hu
 We initiate our coverage of Waberer’s with a Buy recommendation and
a twelve-month target price of EUR 24.2 (HUF 7,345.5) per share, a
figure derived from a DCF model based on a detailed financial forecast
that includes the recently-acquired Polish transport company LINK,
which will be consolidated from 2H17. A peer group valuation supports
the DCF-suggested target price.

 Waberer’s International is a Hungarian-based transportation and


logistics provider with its own standardized and modern fleet of around
3,700 trucks (1H17) operating in the EU and enjoys the estimated 4%
p.a. growth of the international freight market.

 As it is effectively the biggest own fleet player in the EU, many scale
advantages are visible: low maintenance costs, purchasing power due
to bulk purchasing of trucks and fuel, and a high load factor. The latter
is also because the internally developed operational IT systems are
designed to optimize freight carry time and minimize the idle time of
each truck. Outstanding loaded ratios of around 92% demonstrate the
effectiveness of these systems.

 At the next review of BUX membership on the 1 September, Waberer’s


most probably will be included as at least three of the five criteria
expected to be fulfilled according to Erste calculations. This may bring
some additional demand on stock from the funds having BUX index as
benchmark.
Erste Group Research – Company Report finalized and released August 22, 2017, 07:30, CET, reviewed by Henning Eßkuchen Page 1
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors.

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Table of contents
Executive summary 3
SWOT 5
Company profile 7
Regulatory environment 27
Market overview 29
Financial development 35
Assumptions 43
Valuation 48

Contacts 55
Disclosures 56

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22 August 2017

Executive summary

Different valuation metrics Different valuation metrics led to a TP of EUR 24.2 (HUF 7,345.5) per
suggest TP of EUR 24.2 (HUF share – a significant, more than 40% upside, compared to the present
7,345.5) per share – significant share price. In the detailed financial model, including the effect of the
upside recently acquired Polish transport company, LINK, from July 1 this year,
was the basis for the valuation. The DCF valuation was the basis for the
determination of the TP, while for cross checking, the peer group multiples
(P/E, P/EBITDA, P/EBIT and ROE regression – P/B) show a significantly
higher value in many cases.

Standardized fleet of 3,550 Waberer’s is a leading international long-haul road transportation company
trucks, focus on FTL based in Hungary. It owned 3,550 trucks with around 2,970 trucks in the
international business on average in 2016, making the company the no.1
international full truck load (FTL) company in terms of owned fleet size in
Europe. With its highly standardized and homogeneous fleet, Waberer’s
serves clients all across the European Union.

International business In 2016, the company recorded EUR 582mn in revenue and recurring
contributes most to top line EBITDA of EUR 76mn, based on pro-forma figures. 76% of revenue was
generated in the international business segment. Aside from FTL, the
international division offers truckload brokerage and groupage services.
The regional segment recorded outstanding growth after acquiring
Szemerey in 2013. In 2016, Waberer’s internalized the insurance business,
which helps to significantly bring down costs. In the last four years,
Waberer’s recorded average top line growth of 11.4%, far above almost all
competitors’ figures.

Strong, growing road freight Waberer’s is operating in a favorable business environment. The European
market international road freight market is estimated to grow by around 4.5%
annually up to 2020. The transportation sector to a certain extent reflects
trends in the economy; however, the industry is expected to grow faster
than GDP, supported by the trade multiplier effect. But the domestic market
also offers a lot of opportunities, as Hungary is in the middle of a strong and
growing CEE region.

Very well-diversified customer Waberer’s is serving a very well-diversified customer base. In the
business, many blue-chip international business, no client has a share of over 4% of total revenue.
clients The 10 biggest clients account for 22% of the division’s revenue. The
company provides services for a number of blue-chip companies.
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Waberer’s persuades with availability, quality and price offering all kind of
tailor-made logistics solutions.

Significant scale advantages The standardized fleet provides significant scale advantages: low
maintenance and repair costs, purchasing power due to bulk purchasing of
trucks and fuel, and a high load factor. The average truck age is 2.1 years
(as of 2016); trucks are replaced after around 4-5 years. As part of the
strategy, and thanks to the in-house maintenance, the company has started
to extend the replacement period. As a consequence, the average age of
its trucks will increase in future. The size of the fleet also accounts for
positive network effects.

OMU system as unique Waberer’s has established a unique business model by forming clusters of
business model “Operational Management Units” (OMU), each with 60-65 trucks and 80-90
drivers. These units are formed as limited liability companies in which the
company holds a minimum 51% stake and 75% plus one share voting
rights. The remaining stakes are held by managing directors responsible for
driver recruitment and management. This system combines the operational
and financial scale of a leading road transportation company with the
flexibility and personal approach of a small-sized company.

Commitment to growth The company is not only substantially outperforming the market in terms of
growth, it is also clearly committed to further growth in the future. This could
be organic, but Waberer’s is also prepared to take an active part in the
consolidation of the highly fragmented European road transportation
market. The first step has been carried out via the acquisition of the Polish
transportation company, LINK. After integration brings fruits of synergies of
EUR 5-7mn pa, further acquisitions are expected, as Waberer’s wants to
lead the consolidation of the highly fragmented market.

Efficiency is key Utilization rate and fuel efficiency are perhaps the most important
parameters in the industry. Waberer’s runs its proprietary WIRE and WIPE
system, aimed at helping to optimize the company’s business. The
international segment shows a strong 92% utilization rate in 1H17 and the
company is able to steadily reduce fuel consumption by various measures.

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SWOT analysis

Strength and opportunities

Economies of scale advantages due to fleet size


Fleet size as main factor to The company currently owns a standardized and homogeneous fleet of
minimize costs around 3,700 trucks on average in 1H17, with an average truck age of 2.26
years. Economies of scale and the standardization of the fleet bring a lot of
advantages, i.e. low maintenance and repair costs, purchasing power due
to bulk purchasing of trucks and fuel, and a high load factor.

Lead of successful big players untouched


High barriers to entry The economy of scale advantage moreover provides high barriers to entry
for the transportation business. This comprises not only cost factors, but
also network effects. A strong brand associated with reliability, availability
and price/quality cannot be established overnight.

Location in Hungary as unique competitive position


Competitive advantage due to Four major transport corridors pass through the country, which has been
low costs and location able to position itself as a distribution and logistics center in the midst of an
industrial and manufacturing region. Hungary offers relatively low costs in
terms of wages/salaries and reasonable IT costs. It is worth mentioning that
the booming CEE region currently provides a lot of opportunities for growth.

OMU system as unique business model


Combining scale and flexibility Waberer’s runs 39 clusters, each consisting of 60-65 trucks and 80-90
drivers formed as Operational Management Units (“OMU”), where the
company holds minimum 51% stakes and 75% plus one share voting
rights. Ownership mentality and a more personal approach in driver
recruitment and management lead to improving results. Waberer’s OMU
system combines the operational and financial scale of a leading road
transportation company with the flexibility and personal approach of a
small-size company.

Proprietary operational system optimizing freight carries time


State-of-the-art IT The internally developed operational systems WIRE and WIPE are
infrastructure designed to optimize the freight carry time and minimize the idle time of
each truck. Free truck capacities are optimally matched with orders
received by customers. Loaded ratios of more than 91% demonstrate the
effectiveness of these systems. Another software system helps to optimize
electronic document management by the drivers. All trucks are efficiently
monitored, tracked and traced.

Experienced management
Successful management, Ferenc Lajkó, CEO, and Barna Erdélyi, CFO, together have 35 years of
industry-recognized board of experience in the industry. A couple of experienced and well-known experts
directors of the industry are on the board of directors. The fact that Lajkó and Erdélyi,
have accompanied György Waberer, the founder of the company, for many
years of the successful history of the company, is definitively a big
advantage. Their proven experience in restructuring and integrating
companies should help Waberer’s in the future.

Fast-growing market
European international road Road is the most preferred mode of freight transportation in Europe, with a
freight market grows by 4.5% relatively stable share of more than 70% of total ton-kilometers. This trend
on average should be supported by infrastructure investments, which are significantly
higher than in other modes of transport. The European truckload market
growth is expected to exceed GDP growth by far.
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Weaknesses and threats

Regulatory environment
Changes in legal framework The whole sector is being continuously confronted with changes in the legal
might hit profitability framework. Germany, for example, introduced a minimum wage of EUR
8.50 per hour as of January 1, 2015, and raised this to EUR 8.84 in 2017.
Labor costs are therefore increasing, which of course has a negative
impact on the whole industry’s P/L. Changes in excise taxes, emission
standards and other driver-related European regulations may also influence
profitability. Indeed, smaller companies would probably suffer even more
from regulatory changes, but this is cold comfort for the bigger ones.

Driver shortages
Retention rates relatively low in For road companies, it is sometimes difficult to hire truck drivers, mainly
transportation sector due to the fact that other jobs are better paid and less exhausting. Churn
rates are generally high in this sector. Further significant increases in
wages would harm the business model. Waberer’s is recording high
retention rates, due to various measures. However, driver shortages are a
problem for the whole industry.

Economic downturn
CEE countries more volatile in Although not very likely from today’s point of view, a possible economic
terms of economic development downturn would affect the industry. The last crises showed that the GDP
development of CEE countries is generally more volatile than that of
Western European countries. The company’s location in Hungary could be
an additional disadvantage in this case.

Brexit
Brexit might change flow of Brexit might change the flow of goods in the European transportation
goods market and Waberer’s has relatively high exposure in the UK, which is
currently generating some 12% of the company’s top line. Brexit could
therefore have a negative impact on the company’s financials, albeit it
creates opportunities as well (e.g. profit from custom clearance).

Vulnerable EU transportation system


Migrant flows led to long The migrant flows in 2015 led to a suspension of the Schengen treaty and
queues at borders long queues at the borders. Longer lead times and lower km/truck
performance had a negative impact on the company. It is not possible to
pass these additional costs onto clients. These events in 2015 showed how
vulnerable the EU transportation system can be.

Time lag on passing through fuel prices


Fuel as biggest cost block Changes in fuel prices are normally passed through to customers; however,
this sometimes involves time lags of 1-6 months. Fuel expenses account
for more than EUR 100mn per year. A change of just 1% of the fuel price
means an increase or decrease of more than EUR 1mn in expenses.
Rapidly-changing prices might have significant impact on the company’s
P/L.

Transit cost
Road toll could increase Due to high indebtedness, countries are looking for additional sources of
income. Road tolls might be one of those. Transit costs for trucks might
increase and could also impact the company’s financials.

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Company profile

Company description

3,550 trucks with focus on Waberer’s is a transportation and logistics provider with an own fleet of
long-haul FTL around 3,550 trucks in 2016. The company is the no.1 own-fleet player in
the European full truck load (FTL) industry, but also the no.1 in road
transport and logistics services in Hungary. The size of the company brings
a lot of advantages in terms of economies of scale and procurement. The
fleet is young, with an average age of just 2.1 years and the utilization rate
of the international segment currently stands at 91.6%.

The company employed in total some 4,800 drivers in 2016. Around 4,070
of them operated in the international business, serving approx. 3,300
clients in 28 countries in Europe. The regional business covers the whole
value chain including warehousing, with total capacities of almost 170,000
sqm. Since 2016, the company also offers – through its subsidiary WHB –
insurance services related to transportation.

Fleet size of international FTL players

Waberer's 2,970

Girteka 2,900

Fercam 2,850

Willi Betz 2,800

XPO Logistics 2,653

2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700 2,800 2,900 3,000


Note: Waberer’s fleet size refers to the International segment only
Source: Transport Intelligence (2017)

EUR 582mn revenues and In 2016, the company recorded EUR 581.8mn in revenues and EBITDA of
EUR 76mn EBITDA EUR 76.4mn (based on pro-forma figures). EUR 443.4mn or 76% of the
total revenues were generated in the International business, which is by far
the largest and most important segment. The Regional business generated
EUR 97mn (or 17%), while EUR 41.4mn (or 7%) came from “Other”, which
is basically the recently-added insurance business.

Revenue and EBITDA split by segment (2016PF)

Revenues 443 97 41

EBITDA 58 13 5

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

International Regional Other

Source: Company data, PF=pro forma, including 1Q16 insurance business and excluding
EUR 4.4mn one-off costs
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Hungary, UK and Germany The company has a very well-diversified client base, with Fast Moving
most important markets Consumer Goods (23% of total revenues), Automotive (16%) and
Electronics (12%) representing the most important industries. Waberer’s
top client accounts for 4% of the company’s revenues, but the top 50 clients
generate just 42% of the top line. Country-wise, Hungary unsurprisingly
ranks first, with 17% of the revenues produced by the Regional segment
and another 12% originating internationally. The UK and Germany follow
with 12% each, just ahead of France with 11%.

Geographical revenue split Revenue split by industry Costumer concentration

Hungary Top 4%
Reg. 17% FMCG 23%
Top 2-10
18%
Others
36% Hungary Others
Int. 12% 49% Others
58% Top 11-50
Automotive
UK 12% 20%
16%

France Electronics
Germany
11% 12%
12%

Source: Company data Source: Company data Source: Company data

Shareholder and corporate structure

Mid Europa Partners owns Mid Europa Partners Minorities


71.99% of company 100% 26.53% Treasury, MRP
CEE Transport Holding 1.48%

71.99%

Waberer's International Zrt.


Transportation

> 51% Operation Management Units


International

100% International Subsidiaries

100% Other Service Companies

60% Waberer's Szemerey Kft.


Regional Contract
Logistics

51% Rapid Teherautó Szervíz Kft.

100% Waberer's Slovakia

98.5% KözdűlőInest Kft.

100% Wáberer's Hungária Biztosító


Other

100% Delta-Rent Kft.

Source: Company data

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Management

Ferenc Lajkó, CEO

 Over 20 years’ transportation and management experience


 Joined Waberer’s in 2002, appointed COO and Deputy CEO in 2007,
CEO since 2016
 Prior to Waberer’s, Ferenc held various management positions at
Hungarocamion, Volán Camion and Volán Tefu
 BSc – Transportation Management (Széchenyi University)
BSc – Economist Manager (Széchenyi University)

Barna Erdélyi, Deputy CEO and CFO

 Over 15 years’ experience in finance and transportation sectors


 Joined the group in 2013, appointed as CFO in 2014
 Prior to Waberer’s, Barna held different management positions at
various Hungarian public transport companies, and senior roles as a
financial consultant at PwC
 MSc – Economics (Budapest University of Economics)

Stefan Delacher, Board Member

 Board member since 2011


 Previously COO & CMO at Thiel Logistics; former owner of
Delacher+Co Transport AG
 Senior Advisor to Rothschild Global Financial Advisory (Logistics) and
member of the supervisory board of Raben Group
 BSc – Economics (Claremont Colleges, USA)
 MBA (European University, Paris, France)

Gerard van Kesteren, Board Member

 Board member since 2016


 Previously financial controller and CFO at Kühne + Nagel from 1989 to
2014
 Also serves as board member at Planzer Holding, Raben group and
Janel Corporation
 Degree in Economics and Accountancy from Hogeschool van Arnhem

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History

1948 Volán Tefu was founded as a state-owned company to serve the domestic
market for road cargo transportation.

1966 Hungarocamion was established to serve the international market.

1994 György Waberer and his associates acquired Volán Tefu in the course of
the privatization process. At this time, the company generated some EUR
4mn in revenues but posted a loss of around EUR 2mn.

1999 After paying back the debt of around EUR 3mn, the company focused on
growth. In 1999, various acquisitions were made by Volán Tefu.

2002 Volán Tefu acquired Hungarocamion, which was at this time approx. 10
times bigger than the company in terms of assets, in order to establish the
largest transportation and logistics service provider in Hungary and Central
Europe.

2003 The name of the company was changed to WABERER’S. The company
introduced its customer-specific service system “WABERER’S OPTIMUM
SOLUTION”

2004 Waberer's Holding Logistics was established as the legal successor of


Volán Tefu. At this time, the partnership with AIG New Europe Fund
started. Waberer’s was named the “Company of the Year” in Hungary.

2005 Regional expansion continued by acquiring Transporta.

2006 The name of Hungarocamion was changed to Waberer’s.

2007 Waberer's Holding acquired the international transportation company


Révész Eurotrans, the no.2 at this time.

2009 The company’s unique OMU system was developed as a response to the
increasing driver churn rate and difficult market conditions.

2011 Mid Europa Partners acquired a 57.5% stake in Waberer’s.

2012 The group structure was improved through various mergers with
Waberer’s as legal successor.

2013 Szemerey, a domestic player was acquired in 2013.

2016 The company acquired WHB insurance, which specializes in MTPL


insurance. Mid Europa Partners increased its stake to 97.2% by buying
out György Waberer. The company entered a trademark agreement to
continue using the “Waberer” name as part of its trade name and
trademark.

2017 Waberer’s increased its capital by issuing new shares in the value of EUR
50mn on the BSE in an IPO attempt. At the same time, the ownership of
the main shareholder, MEP, decreased to 71.99%. EUR 32mn of the
proceeds were used to purchase a Polish transportation company, LINK.

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Divisions

1. International Segment

International business The International Segment is Waberer’s biggest, responsible for 76.2% of
accounts for 76% of group’s the group’s revenues and 76.5% of EBITDA (as of 2016). These numbers
top line have declined somewhat, due to the increasing importance of the domestic
business on the one side, and the acquisition of the insurance business on
the other.

Top line growth slowed down In 2016, the company recorded revenues in the amount of EUR 443.3mn, a
due to oil price development slight increase of 1.9% compared to the previous year. Top line growth
rates have declined in the last two years somewhat, partly due to the low oil
prices that are passed on to customers.

EBITDA with one-off effect in EBITDA stood at EUR 58.4mn (based on pro-forma figures, which do not
2016 include one-off items) after EUR 60mn in 2015 and EUR 60.1mn in 2014.
The reason for the decline on the EBITDA level is increased personnel
expenses due to adjustments in the compensation scheme which were
necessary to (1) secure the driver base necessary for its operations and (2)
to comply with various minimum wage regulations in its countries of
operation.

Segment split Geographical revenues split Revenue development (EURmn)

Groupage HU 16%
& LTL 5% 450 443
Other 29%
FTL FF 440 435
15% 430
DE 16% 419
420
IT 8% 410
FTL 80%
UK 16% 400
FR 15%
2014 2015 2016

Source: Company data Source: Company data Source: Company data

2,970 trucks and around 4,070 Waberer’s deploys 2,970 trucks with an average age of 2.1 years in the
drivers International Segment. With approx. 4,070 drivers, the company serves
3,300 customers in Europe. The utilization rate of 91.6% is one of the
highest in the industry. In 2016, 284,000 transports were carried out with
398mn km driven.

Focus on full truckload, The International Segment is primarily focused on standardized full
biggest fleet in Europe truckload (FTL) operations, generating some 80% of the division’s
revenues. Waberer’s highly standardized own fleet focuses solely on FTL
orders for the transport of palletized goods. The fleet of uniform,
interchangeable trucks and trailers is managed by the centralized control
center in Budapest.

Key selling points: The large fleet results not only in significant scale and cost leadership, but
(1) Availability, (2) Quality and also allows the company to guarantee capacities in all major markets, with
(3) Price Germany, the UK and Hungary on top, followed by France, serving a broad
range of blue-chip customers. The huge number of trucks also enables the
company to optimize its network and quickly react to clients’ needs (“there
is always a Waberer’s truck nearby”). Enhancing the asset deployment of
this large fleet also means a reduction in empty runs, leading to a high
utilization rate of currently 91.6% (in 2016).

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FTL Freight Forwarding for FTL Freight Forwarding generates around 15% of the International
specialized transportation Segment revenues. 55,000 transports were subcontracted in 2016.
services also outside EU Specialized transportation services, also to non-EU destinations which
cannot be served by Waberer’s standardized fleet, such as dangerous
goods, oversized transports or the transportation of non-palletized goods,
are generally forwarded to companies which have to fulfill Waberer’s
stringent quality requirements.

Also helps to balance own fleet Freight forwarding also helps the company to optimize its own assets and
orders balance the flow of own fleet orders. Generally speaking, freight forwarding
broadens coverage and increases the flexibility to provide all kinds of
services to customers.

International Groupage and International Groupage and LTL (“Less Than Truck Load”) accounts for
LTL with some EUR 22mn 5% of the segment’s top line. It includes scheduled runs of smaller loads
revenues across Europe but also express cargo forwarding, door-to-door deliveries
as well as related services, such as warehousing. 21,000 transports were
carried out in 2016. The network currently comprises two collection
warehouses and some 100 pick-up points in Europe. The two Hungarian
groupage platforms are located in Budapest and Győr.

Predominantly subcontracted Although the International Groupage and LTL segment is not going to be
to Hungarian small hauliers the big business in the future, it helps to deepen client relationships. Just as
with FTL Freight Forwarding, it complements the FTL services, but these
services typically do not involve any of the standardized trucks of the
division’s fleet.

2. Regional Segment

Revenues already close to With the acquisition of Szemerey in 2013, Waberer’s became the no.1 on
EUR 100mn the Hungarian market. In the meantime, revenues further increased to EUR
97mn and the Regional Segment now accounts for 16.7% of the group’s
total revenues. EBITDA amounted to EUR 13mn in 2016 and therefore
generated 17% of Waberer’s EBITDA line.

No.1 in road transport and As the leading transportation and logistics provider in Hungary and
logistics services in Hungary adjacent regions, Waberer’s offers its customers short and medium haul
road transportation, distribution and warehousing services.
Segment split Geographical footprint Revenue development (EURmn)

Other 11% 100 88 97


78
80
Warehousing
19% 60
Regional own
fleet 49% 40
20
Freight 0
Forw arding
2014 2015 2016
21%

Source: Company data Source: Company data Source: Company data

580 own trucks and 720 drivers The segment’s backbone consists of 9 logistics centers, 18 warehouses
(including the central cross-dock warehouse in Budapest) with total
capacity of almost 170,000 sqm as well as 580 trucks with some 720
drivers. Some 450 trucks are subcontracted (out of which there are 150
small ones) to manage possible overflows.

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Waberer’s Regional Segment offers FTL, including a 24-hour trackable


distribution service. The company is the FTL-leader in dry foods with 3mn
tons delivered per year. Waberer’s facilities guarantee efficient loading and
unloading of trucks, the sorting takes place with a minimum of storage in
between.

Key selling points: As a fully integrated distribution player, Waberer’s offers the full spectrum
(1) Solutions, (2) Scale and of logistics services. To be more flexible in terms of adding warehousing
(3) Brand capacities at short notice, the company has some optional warehousing
capacities at a multinational oil and gas company. Waberer’s offers storage
services of normal and refrigerated goods, pallet movement, factory
outsourcing and other value-added services such as packaging. The
company is also a dominant player in temperature control throughout the
whole distribution chain.

3. Insurance

Purchase price EUR 13mn… In 2016, the company acquired Wáberer's Hungária Biztosító (WHB), the
insurance company established to insure Waberer’s fleet, which was
considered too large for multinational insurance companies in the past. The
purchase price was EUR 13mn and Waberer’s was already able to save
around EUR 12mn in insurance costs in the first year, according to Erste
Group estimates. The company recorded an outstanding combined ratio of
78% in 2016.

…cost savings EUR 12mn in first The rationale behind this move was (1) to limit exposure to rising insurance
year expenses by the internalization of these insurance services and (2) to gain
access to the loss data of the fleet. Waberer’s has already identified some
weaknesses and reacted by implementing some measures, e.g. specialized
drivers for left-hand-drive traffic in the UK.

rd
3 party business not planned to Due to rising prices, motor third-party liability insurance (MTPL) premiums
be expanded have also substantially stepped up in Hungary. The increase from EUR
288mn to EUR 421mn in the period from 2014 to 2016 means average
annual growth of more than 20%.

WHB is now the 8th largest non-life insurer in Hungary with a market share
of 3% and the 3rd largest player in the MTPL insurance market (as of
2016). WHB’s main competitors in the MTPL business are Allianz, K&H,
UNIQA and Generali. However, Waberer’s management is not aiming to
expand WHB’s current business.

Group’s fees per truck (EUR) WHB revenues (EURmn) WHB EBITDA (EURmn)

10,000
8,111
8,000
6,305
6,000 Waberer's 3rd party
3,964 26.4 4.8
4,000
2,245 2,038 1,852
2,000 3rd party
41.2 Waberer's
0
2014 2015 2016 8.0

Source: CompanyInternational
data Regional Source: Company data Source: Company data

Insurance business currently generates some 7.1% of the group’s revenues


and 6.5% on EBITDA line. This does not include any contributions of
Waberer’s; these are eliminated through the consolidation process.
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Fleet

Young fleet of 3,550 trucks, Waberer’s average fleet size in 2016 amounted to 3,550 trucks. This
average age 2.1 years number has constantly increased over the past years; in 2013, the
acquisition of Szemerey, with a fleet of 465 trucks, helped to bring this
number up. With an average age of just 2.1 years, Waberer’s fleet is rather
young. This has the advantage that maintenance costs can be kept low. It
also offers drivers more comfort, which results in improving retention rates.
On the other hand, management decided to gradually extend the
replacement period. In 1H17, the average age of the trucks was increased
to 2.3 years and some further increase is expected. We do not see this
change as having a significant effect on business at least for the time being
and see it as in line with the strategy (see below). This step could improve
cash-generating activity.

Modern and state-of-the-art All trucks are equipped with telematics and GPS track and trace system.
equipment While the international fleet with 2,970 trucks is fully standardized and
interoperable, the regional fleet is variably equipped and adapted to clients’
needs.

Fleet development

2011 2,335
2012 2,439
2013 2,999
2014 3,268
2015 3,433
2016 3,550

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000


Source: Company data

Characteristics of international fleet

3,010 mega trucks with Trucks


capacity of 102m3  Number of trucks year-end 2016: 3,010
 Actual average age: 2.05 years
 Targeted average age: 2.2-2.5 years
 Only mega trucks with capacity of 102m3
 Some 2,100 trucks Euro 6, rest Euro 5
 Brands: mainly DAF and Volvo, but also MAN and Mercedes

100% curtain-sider for fast Trailers


loading/unloading  Number of trailers year-end 2016: 3,418
 Actual average age: 2.4 years
 Mega Semi-Trailers with 102m3 capacity for 34 pallets and 24 tons
 Almost all XL certified with possibility to load from top
 100% curtain-sider allowing fast loading and unloading
 Brands: Schmitz Cargobull

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Characteristics of regional fleet

Mainly Euro 5 and 6 trucks Trucks


 Number of trucks year-end 2016: 473 (excluding vehicles rented to
subcontractors)
 Actual average age: 2.16 years
 Targeted average age: 3-3.5 years
 175 trucks Euro 6, 265 trucks Euro 5, rest Euro 3 or less
 Brands: some 400 DAF, rest Volvo and Mercedes

Diversified fleet of trailers Trailers


 Number of trailers year-end 2016: 540
 Actual average age: varies from 3.9 years (Krone) to 7 years
(Schwarzmüller)
 Mega Semi-Trailers, Standard Semi-Trailers, Refrigerated Semi-
Trailers, Container Semi-Trailers
 Brands: 429 Schmitz Cargobull, rest mainly Krone, Schwarzmüller
and Kögel

Buyback Program

Buyback guarantee as price The vehicle purchases from original equipment manufacturers usually
floor include buyback options, which is exercisable within 48 months on an
average for trucks and 60 months for trailers. A leasing company usually
finances the purchases. The OEM grants the buyback guarantee, but
Waberer’s has the option to purchase the buyback right on equipment (i.e.
trucks and trailers) at the end of the lease period and sell the vehicle to a
third party in case of favorable market conditions.

Schematic overview of buyback program

Source: Company data

Maintenance

Maintenance with scale effects Vehicle maintenance is carried out by the company in maintenance centers
in Budapest and Mosonmagyaróvár close to the Austrian and Slovakian
border. Technicians are trained and authorized by the OEMs. A seven-day
operation in three shifts provides the ability to maintain the whole fleet
throughout the year. The leverage of procurement scale and purchase
power to negotiate prices makes maintenance significantly cheaper than
OEM-owned ones.

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Operations

Customer acquisition process

(1) Client sourcing The typical customer acquisition cycle usually starts with client sourcing,
which is coordinated by the Hungarian and Polish offices by selecting the
freight forward orders. The in-house credit assessment before starting a
business prevents the company from incurring bad debt.

(2) Quote and offer A pricing team consisting of two professionals prepares the terms tailored
to a particular request. The team is supported by specific software and
obtains the approval of the tender committee. A sales representative then
enters into negotiations with the customer.

(3) Agreement finalization Negotiations include the final contract terms including fuel clauses,
invoicing and possible cancellations. Legal support may be involved to
finalize the agreement.

(4) Signing The signing establishes the relationship on an operational level.


Communication channels are determined and coordination of logistics
starts.

(5) Relationship Management Contractual duties are exercised on a daily basis. Renegotiations are part
of the daily business. A team of 16 professional key account managers
provide the necessary support in order to optimize relationship
management.

Acquisitions process vary on Depending on the type of client, the acquisition process might vary. While
type of client key accounts are usually served in a multistage tender process, the spot
business is selected based on market conditions. Regional contract
logistics is mainly procured by a streamlined tender process.

International business half Around half of the international business and almost all regional business
spot, half contracted run under key accounts with an average contract length of one year
(international business) and 3-5 years (regional business), respectively.
Key accounts guarantee capacities for customers.

High visibility also for spot The spot business generates non-contractual revenues, but the extensive
business track record and long-term customer relationships also provide high
visibility. The strong brand known for reliability and quality helps a lot.

Customer base

Revenue split by industry Geographical revenue split Customer concentration


Insurance
Others 7% 6% HU Reg. Top 1 4%
FMCG 23% 17%
SV 3% Top 2-10
AT 3% HU Int. 18%
Others ES 5% 12% Top 11-20
49% 8%
NL 5% Others
Automotive
16% 58%
IT 6%
UK 12%
Top 21-50
Electronics 12%
FR 11% DE 12%
Retail 5% 12%
Source: Company data Source: Company data Source: Company data

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90% of Waberer’s customers are beneficial cargo owners, while just 10%
are freight forwarders. The company is serving a very well-diversified
customer base which includes all kinds of industries. Fast-moving
consumer goods currently take the top position among the most important
industries followed by Automotive and Electronics. No client has a share of
more than 4% of the group’s revenues. The top 50 clients generate just
42% of Waberer’s total revenues.

Fuel management

Fuel management plays an important role, since fuel is the largest cost
contributor (EUR 0.24 per km). The company implemented a lot of
measures to bring fuel consumption down:

 WIRE and WIPE systems allow significant fuel reductions by


calculating optimal routes, loading algorithms and fuel stops.
Average fuel consumption  Telematics enabling driver style analysis to identify further fuel save
(l/100km) potential.
 Fuel storage facilities in Budapest and Mosonmagyaróvár allow
2010 31.9 bulk purchases. Regional trucks exclusively refuel at the
2011 32.1 company’s own facilities.
2012 31.8  Partnerships with Shell and Q8 Oil for the international business as
2013 30.8 well as Mol and Unipetrol in Hungary allow discounted prices.
2014 30.1  Truck technologies such as adaptive and topographic cruise control
2015 30.0 as well as advanced brake technology help to reduce costs.
2016 29.8  Drivers are trained to drive cost-efficiently. In addition, Waberer’s
28 30 32 34 has also implemented bonus programs which incentivizes drivers
Source: Company data to drive fuel-efficiently.

All these measures help to steadily reduce fuel consumption. Over six
years, average fuel consumption dropped from 31.9 liters per 100km to
29.8 liters. This is a reduction of 6.6%.

Employees

The company currently employed 6,875 employees as of March 2017.


Waberer’s key asset is its drivers, which represent around 74% of the
company’s staff. Most of the drivers are Hungarians, followed by
Romanians. A salary increase of 15% for international drivers helped to
increase the retention rate to 55% (from 43% in 2014 and 47% in 2015).
The driver retention rate therefore lies significantly above the industry’s
average; however, the company intends to further raise this number.

Employee structure No. of drivers, as of 31 March 2017

120%
Office 100%
workers 17%
20% Labour 80%
workers Regional
6% 60%
Drivers International
40%
74%
20% 83%

0%
Source: Company data Source: Company data

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Waberer’s has implemented a number of programs and measures to


develop and motivate employees.

 Cross-divisional rotation programs


 Professional and leadership trainings
 Frequent health screening programs
 Holiday schemes for families
 Housing loan support
 Employees incentive schemes

The holistic retention scheme for employees therefore comprises:

(1) A competitive package including increased salaries and extensive


training,
(2) An organizational setup which combines the flexibility of a small
company with the operational and financial scale of a pan-
European transportation company,
(3) Soft factors, such as modern and attractive trucks, and a complex
employee program including holiday resorts and accommodation
subsidies,
(4) Longer resting time after a 3-5 week driving period, depending on
driver preferences.

Innovation

Strong commitment to With annual CAPEX of EUR 2.7mn spent on IT, Waberer’s shows its strong
innovation commitment to a long-term technology leadership in the industry.

Core IT system as backbone The ongoing update of the company’s core IT system helps to improve the
backbone of the group’s IT system, which is the basis for business
optimization driving operational efficiency, pricing optimization and working
capital efficiency. The system is currently being upgraded to SAP
Transportation. The additional SAP modules will be added to the already
existing ERP (“enterprise resource planning”) financial system, which is
covering the master data such as vehicles, employees and customer
details.

Bespoke IT system The company has a bespoke IT system for organizational purposes and for
operations. Beyond the internal usage of the IT system, the company
equipped all trucks with GPS track and trace systems, with full use of
Astrata’s FleetVisor software. This provides direct communication with all
drivers and records their driving performance. This real-time monitoring of
the entire fleet system also helps to improve efficiency.

WIRE calculates optimal route Waberer’s has its proprietary WIRE system – “Waberer’s Intelligent
Route Planning Engine” – that is used to optimize freight carry time and
minimize the idle time of each own-asset truck, via calculating the optimal
route between pickup and delivery points, taking into account a
sophisticated multivariable algorithm. This is a complex and well-known so-
called “traveling agent” mathematical problem, for which the company
believes it has a competitive solution regarding cost elements (1) fuel, (2)
transit, (3) order lead-time and (4) EU regulations of maximum driving and
minimum rest time for drivers.

Planning optimal fuel stops and In addition to optimal route planning, the (1) optimal fuel stops, (2) rest
rest locations locations for drivers and (3) back-leg load transport opportunities are also
considered. The WIRE software was launched in January 2016.

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WIPE matches free truck The proprietary WIPE system (“Waberer’s Intelligent Planning Engine”)
capacities optimally matches free truck capacity and orders received from customers.
This minimizes empty running trucks and helps to increase the loaded ratio,
one of the important KPIs in the long-haul transportation business.

TDMS, Paragon and WebEye Beyond the important WIPE, WIRE and FleetVisor systems, Waberer’s
uses other operations-related systems:

 Tour document management system (“TDMS”) designed to


optimize electronic document management by Waberer’s drivers
during their transports.
 Fleet controller software (“Paragon”) designed to manage
Waberer’s domestic distribution tour planning effectively in real
time.
 “WebEye” helps analyze the driving style of its drivers and tracks
the optimization system of the regional fleet.

Telematics allows effective The company strongly believes in future technologies. Telematics, which
tracking and optimization of combined a range of technologies such as telecommunications and GPS,
fleet and drivers allows effective tracking and optimization of fleet and drivers. Management
expects an increase of the number of implemented Telematics from 4mn in
2015 to 8mn in 2020 which would mean a 99% penetration of Europe’s
new truck market.

There are various benefits of Telematics:


 Unsafe events, such as sudden acceleration, hard braking and
sudden lane changes decreased by some 50% across short- and
long-haul groups.
 Enhanced optimal speed calibration also taking into accounts
topographical variations.
 The optimized distance is covered at the optimal RPM range.
 Fuel economy improved between 5 and 9%.

Self-Driving Trucks could bring Future technologies also include Self-Driving Trucks, which address
costs down by 28% several challenges to the industry, thereby making the timing of its
implementation hard to predict. However, it has the potential to
metamorphose the industry. Significant cost savings can only be expected
in the long term, and large fleet operators could gain advantages by
forming intra-fleet platoons.

Waberer’s as one of first using Independent studies suggest that cost savings comprise fuel (-11%), wages
technology for drivers (-81%), insurance and tax (-40%), administration & garage (-
10%), repair and maintenance (-15%), while capital costs and depreciation
should increase (+15%). Total costs of operations could decline by 28%
according to various studies. Waberer’s sees itself as one of the first to use
this technology.

Partnerships with Volvo and Waberer’s has formed several partnerships and has agreements with
Mercedes Volvo and Mercedes in order to maintain its leading positions in terms of
technology. In March 2017, a logistics system engineer and planning
Master’s course started at Széchenyi István University in Gyor.

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Operational Management Units

Unique business model Waberer’s has a unique business model for its international transportation
business, so-called “Operational Management Units” (OMU). The structure
was developed during the main crisis period, in 2010, as an answer to the
deteriorating business environment, to improve the efficiency of the drivers
and stoke entrepreneurial spirit among key employees. After positive
feedback, the number of these companies increased to 20 by the end of
2013. In the last two years, Waberer’s has fine-tuned the system and
started to improve the numbers of this kind of companies inside the
International Business segments again. As of December last year, the
number of OMUs amounted to 39 operating 95% of the trucks of the
international segment.

The main elements of the OMUs are:


Unit consist of 60 trucks and Each OMU company consists of:
75 drivers  60-65 trucks with 80-90 drivers
 Waberer’s has ownership of minimum 51%
 Waberer’s voting rights are 75%+1 share

Due to the nature of the OMU structure, tasks are definite. It is clearly
stated for what Waberer’s and the OMU are responsible. Via this structure,
Waberer’s has full operational and commercial control over these
companies:

Waberer’s responsible for Waberer’s headquarters has the following duties and tasks:
technical infrastructure and  Sales: relationship management, pricing, order flow
orders  Planning: route optimization, capacity allocation
 Control: full operational and commercial control
 Finance: debt financing and leasing contracts
 HR: payroll management and policy, employment standards
 Procurement: bulk purchase of fuel, tolls, equipment, R&M
 PR: marketing, brand development, access to key accounts
 Legal: ongoing proceedings and regulatory issues including tax

OMU handles HR tasks and OMU responsibility:


operational transport  Daily transport responsibilities: local fleet management
 HR: OMU is first point of contact for drivers in daily business;
recruitment, driver pool management with focus of retention, workforce
allocation, organization of trainings
 Organizational excellence: micro fine-tuning within OMU
 Local issue management: resolving emergency issues, fleet
replacement
 Cooperation: back office

Combines scale and flexibility This unique business model combines the operational and financial scale of
a pan-European transportation company with the flexibility of a smaller
trucking company

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Strategy

The Waberer’s strategy is based on four pillars:

(1) Growth in scale and market share: Waberer’s targets organic


growth by expanding and improving the size of its fleet. The goal is
to outgrow the international transportation market in terms of
revenue.
(2) Expansion of operations through selective acquisitions and
growth initiatives: The company aims to be a leading consolidator
in the transportation and logistics market. The long-haul
transportation business in the EU is highly fragmented and even at
a market share of less than 1%, Waberer’s is a major player.
(3) Driving innovation leadership and operational efficiency:
Further improving operational efficiency is key to maintaining the
current high EBITDA margin. Initiatives include increasing fleet
utilization and improving the proprietary IT systems (e.g. route
planning software, standardized electronic invoicing).
(4) Focus on optimization of the cost base: Waberer’s strives to
retain cost leadership in the European international FTL segment
through further optimizing cost structure, exploiting economies of
scale and maintain best-in-class performance.

Successful M&A track record Growth through M&A will be a key driver for Waberer’s, with the company
already showing a successful track record of acquisitions under the current
CEO:

M&A Timeline

Source: Company data, EG estimates

20-25 identified targets in CEE The company has identified 20-25 potential targets in the areas of
international transportation and regional logistics in the high-growth CEE
economies (Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia).

International transportation: In international transportation, Waberer’s focuses on mid-sized operators


focus on mid-sized companies (revenues > EUR 50mn – management said that EUR 100mn would be
with standardized cargo and fine, fleet size > 300 trucks, equity value: EUR 30-50mn) focused on
diversified customer base standardized cargo and a healthy diversification of the customer base.

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Selected M&A Criteria

Source: Company data, EG estimates

Regional logistics: SMEs In regional logistics, mid- and small-sized logistics providers are targeted.
targeted with expansion into The business focus is on expansion into new business areas along the
new business areas vertical value chain.

Consolidation has begun At the end of 1H17, Waberer’s acquired a road transportation and freight
forwarding company in Poland named LINK, fitting the above criteria. LINK
recorded EUR 94.3mn in revenues in 2016 and generated an EBITDA of
EUR 10.5mn and a recurring EBIT of EUR 5mn. It runs a fleet of 430
EURO 6 trucks (average age of 1.5 years) and 680 trailers (average age of
two years) as of March 2017. Revenues are split almost equally between
International FTL and Freight Forwarding. The target has an established
presence across European markets (PL, UK, DE and FR). The customer
base is diversified, with companies from automotive, FMCG, household
appliances and others. The equity purchase price amounts to EUR 32mn,
net debt stood at EUR 42mn. Hence, the EV EBITDA multiple amounts to
7.1x, the P/E ratio is some 11.4x. Management expects high single-digit
EURmn EBITDA synergies by 2020, which would make multiples even
more attractive and easily bring EV/EBITDA below 6x.

Strategic fit for Waberer’s The acquisition is a strategic fit for Waberer’s diversifying revenue streams,
consolidating a modern fleet, increasing the density of coverage, increasing
scale as well as accessing new labor and customer end markets.

High single-digit EBITDA Management estimates that high single-digit EBITDA synergies could be
synergies could be achieved achieved by 2020, of which around 60% are from revenue synergies and
by 2020 40% from cost synergies, over a three-year ramp-up period.

Intermodal transport uses Waberer’s launch of an intermodal network of connections between


multiple modes of transportation Budapest and major European cities represents expansion into new
business areas. The pilot project started in November 2016 connecting the
company’s BILK logistics center in Hungary with the cities Duisburg,
Cologne and Genk through intermodal connections. Further potential routes
include Milan, London, Killingholme (UK) and Rotterdam.

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Waberer’s plans for its intermodal network of connections

Source: Company data

Waberer’s can exploit its scale Waberer’s can perfectly exploit its scale, as only big market players have
and management expertise the capacity and number of orders to fill a whole train. At the same time,
this complementary business provides increased growth with fewer trucks
while reducing transit cost. Waberer’s thus also fulfills increasing client
expectations to provide such capabilities.

Limited CAPEX risk The expected capital expenditure is limited, with an additional EUR 1mn for
500 craneable trailers compared to normal trailers.

Polish acquisition LINK

LINK International Transport In June, Waberer’s bought a Polish FTL transportation company, LINK
founded in 1989 International Transport, which was founded in 1989. In 2016, LINK reached
EUR 94.3mn in revenue. The equity value of the firm is EUR 32mn. The
company focuses on two segments, (1) International FTL Transportation
and (2) freight forwarding. These two segments are equally split in terms of
revenues. LINK has broad European reach, with exposure to the top 10 EU
markets. Its biggest presences are in Poland and the UK.

430 trucks, 680 trailers Operational profile of acquisition target LINK:


 around 430 trucks
 circa 680 trailers
 52.3mn driven km per annum in 2016
 86.9% loaded ratio as of 2016
 around 960 employees, of which 75% are drivers
 highly qualified and experienced management team
 over 15 years of relevant experience
 four bases in Poland and one in Benelux
 five Western European core markets
 Proprietary IT solutions with proven 3 party components
rd

Sharp increase in revenues in LINK’s revenue increased by 40.8% in 2016 and reached PLN 406.5mn
2016 (EUR 94.3mn). The increase was mainly driven by the Freight Forwarding
segment. In 2016, EBITDA reached PLN 36.3mn (EUR 10.5mn), rising
33.0% compared to 2015. The EBITDA increase was mainly driven by a
revenue increase, but offset by an increase in per diem costs, due to recent

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labor market changes and one-off items, such as a loss on the sale of fixed
assets and transaction advisory fees.

Revenue development (PLNmn) EBITDA development (PLNmn)

406.5 36.3

288.7 27.3

Revenue Recurring adj. EBITDA


EUR 94.3mn EUR 10.5mn*

2015A 2016A 2015A 2016A


Source: Company data Source: Company data
Note: * Including adjustments for rental expenses (EUR 1.5m; relating to fleet leases; added back due to the capitalization of operating leases),
one-off loss on sale of fixed assets (EUR 0.7m), one-off transaction advisory fees (EUR 0.2m), as well as other normalizations (EUR 0.1m) and
accounting adjustments (minus EUR 0.3m). The reported EBITDA amounts to EUR 8.3m, the reported EBIT amounts to EUR 3.1m. PLN
figures are based on audited statutory financials, while EUR figures are based on IFRS unaudited financials

LINK serves a broad range of clients in various industries with long-


standing client relationships. The biggest segment by revenue contributions
are Automotive (31%), FMCG sector (23%) and Household Appliances
(14%). The biggest customer accounts for 15% of annual revenue, while
the TOP 10 customers altogether account for 50% of total revenue.

Revenues split by industry Revenues by business Customers by size


Top 1
Other 13% Automotive 15%
31%
Waste 5%
Top 2
Freight 9%
e-commerce forwarding Rest
14% 48% 50%

Household FMCG 23% International Top 3-10


appliances FTL 52% 27%
14%

Source: Company data Source: Company data Source: Company data

Extremely young fleet, average As of March 2017, the company employed 427 leased EURO 6 trucks with
age 1.5 years an average age of around 1.5 years and 675 trailers with an average age of
around two years. The trucks are equipped with a telematics system, which
promotes an eco-driving style and reduces the impact on the engine and its
components. Due to the high standards, trucks are replaced every 2-3
years. As a result of the homogenous characteristics, all trucks can be used
interchangeably, which increases efficiency rates.

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Pro-forma combined financials

in EURm n Waberer's 16 LINK 16 Com bination ch% vs.


(2)
pro-form a adjusted pro-form a Waberer's
Incom e Statem ent
Revenues 581.8 94.3 676.1 16.2%
Recurring EBITDA 76.4 10.5 (1) 86.9 13.7%
margin 13.1% 11.1% 12.8% -2.1%
Recurring EBIT 24.3 5.2 (1) 29.5 21.5%
margin 4.2% 5.5% 4.4% 4.5%
Net profit 11.4 2.8 14.2 24.3%
margin 2.0% 2.9% 2.1% 7.0%

Balance Sheet
Cash 31.7 1.8 33.4 5.6%
Loans 15.0 9.8 24.8 65.4%
Leases 228.1 32.2 260.3 14.1%
Other - 2.0 (3) 2.0 n.a.
Gross debt 243.1 44.1 287.1 18.1%
Net debt 211.4 42.3 253.7 20.0%
x LTM EBITDA 2.8x 4.0x 2.9x 5.5%

Source: Company data

Notes: (1) Including adjustments for rental expenses (EUR 1.5mn; relating to fleet leases;
added back due to the capitalization of operating leases), one-off loss on sale of fixed assets
(EUR 0.7mn), one-off transaction advisory fees (EUR 0.2m), as well as other normalizations
(EUR 0.1mn) and accounting adjustments (minus EUR 0.3mn). The reported EBITDA
amounts to EUR 8.3mn, the reported EBIT amounts to EUR 3.1mn. (2) Standalone. (3)
Dividend to be paid to previous shareholders considered as short-term liability increasing debt.

This acquisition nicely fits into the strategy of Waberer’s. The company
planned to expand in a high-growth CEE economy with a strong
geographical footprint in a core EU market, with an FTL business focus.
Waberer’s has huge experience in acquisitions, as it has carried out several
transactions in the past, such as Volán Tefu, Hungarocamion and
Szemerey.

Significant synergies By most measures (real and financial), the acquisition could generate a low
expected single-digit EURmn increase, as can be seen in the table below. Based on
the pro-forma figures, the recurring EBIT increase should reach 21.5% and
net profit should increase by 24.3% as an effect of the transaction.

Potential EBITDA synergies outlook (EURmn)


10
Highly visible Revenue
cost synergies synergies
from savings from fleet
on fuel price, expansion
transit costs
5 and repair and
maintenance
costs

0
2017E Medium Term
Source: Company data

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Potential synergy outlook

The acquisition should generate significant synergies, reaching a high


single-digit level on the EBITDA level by 2020 (over a 3-year transition
period). A bigger part of the transaction should involve cost synergies, such
as savings on fuel, lower transit costs and decreased maintenance and
repair costs. Moreover, cost synergies should be achievable in the near
short term; a significant part should already be seen in 2017. Most of these
positive effects come from economies of scale in the bigger truck and trailer
fleet, which increases the density of coverage.

Revenue synergies should be realized during the coming years, but in 2017
these should still be marginal. Revenue synergies stem from fleet
expansion. Through the acquisition, Waberer’s should gain access to new
customers and markets.

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Regulatory environment

International rules and regulations

The key international rules and regulations Waberer’s is subject to relate to


minimum wages and driver-related European regulation as well as excise
taxes on diesel fuel.

Minimum wages to avoid social With labor cost being a key factor for transportation companies, legislation
dumping on minimum wages in the EU countries plays a predominant role. The most
important legislative thresholds enacted on minimum wages were:

Minimum wage per hour (EUR):


Germany: 8.84
France: 9.76
Italy: minimum wages for cabotage operations
Austria: prescribed by collective agreements depending on age,
education and work experience
Source: Company data

EC: Minimum wages should not The European Commission suggested in a preliminary review that
be applicable in transit minimum wages should only be applicable in cabotage and bilateral
transport, but not in transit.

EC also regulates minimum To enhance road safety and promote good working conditions, the EU
working enacted Regulation 561/2006/EC, providing a common set of rules for
maximum daily and fortnightly driving times. Other European regulations
applicable to Waberer’s include the Rome Regulation 593/2008/EC, stating
that, in cases where an employee works in several EU states, the law of the
Member State where the employee habitually works for should apply. In
order to avoid social dumping, Posted Workers Directive 96/71/EC aims to
ensure that minimum terms and conditions of employment applicable in a
Member State must also apply to workers posted to that Member State.
These regulations force transportation operators to have a larger driver
population and to appropriately monitor drivers.

Excise tax changes can be Excise taxes on diesel fuel also affect the cost side of transportation
largely passed to customers companies. Excise tax rates vary across the European Union with a
minimum threshold of 33 eurocents per 1 liter. However, fuel cost increases
can largely be passed through to customers.

Regulatory environment The regulatory environment is constantly evolving with new requirements
subject to changes for hauliers. For example, since 2016, France has required foreign
transport companies to prepare formal documents in French and have a
French representative. Another recently resurfaced hurdle is border
controls due to the refugee crisis. Prolonged transportation times could
decrease the competitiveness of road transportation vs. other modes.

Transportation licenses and certificates

All main licenses required by EU Waberer’s holds all main licenses required by EU and local governmental
transportation agencies and the Hungarian National Transport Authority
(HTNA).

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The key applicable regulations the company is subject to are:

 European Agreement concerning the International Carriage of


Dangerous Goods by Road
 Regulation 561/2006 on the harmonization of social legislation to
road transport
 Regulation 78/2009 on the type-approval of motor vehicles on
pedestrian protection
 United Nations Convention on Road Traffic (“Vienna Convention”)

Waberer’s green footprint is demonstrated by several ISO certificates, e.g.


ISO 50001:2001 and ISO 14001:2009 (energy management) or ISO
14001:2004 (environmental management).

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Market overview

Logistics value chain

Waberer’s serves all kind of The term Transportation covers all road, rail, air and sea transportation,
needs and offers customized, whereas road transportation is – by far – the most important mode of
tailored solutions transportation in Europe. It can be provided through own assets (“asset-
based”) or brokered capacities (“asset-light”).

Warehouse Management comprises the management of warehouse


facilities, including check-in/check-out, internal handling cargo handling,
storage and retrieval.

Value-Added Services include a variety of outsourced business services


often integrated into warehouse management. Pick and pack orders, kit
assembly, inventory management, quality controls, returns management,
classification and product labelling are typical value-added services.
rd
3 Party Logistics (3PL) provides the full supply chain management,
including transportation, storage and value-added services. 3PL require
transport asset providers as well as warehouse operators.
th
4 Party Logistics (4PL) providers take on full responsibility for the
complete outsourced logistics process on behalf of the customer, designing
solutions and managing the integration of the overall supply chain and
different service providers.

Business models

Asset intensity defines one of the key characteristics of the industry:


Asset-Based players provide capacities to customers. Efficient and
effective asset deployment is the key to generate high margins. Economies
of scale bring advantages in terms of network size and financing conditions.
There is no margin split with a freight forwarder, but it requires extensive
sales efforts and successful key account management.

Key players’ asset intensity

Source: Industry research and Factset (as of March 24,


2017)

The Asset-Light industry is characterized by high growth, modest margins,


but high returns on capital, given the rather low capital requirements. The
ability to scale up and down makes it easy to adapt demand fluctuations.
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But on the other hand, margins are squeezed when demand is high and
capacities consequently low, since customers are not willing to absorb
costs.

Trucking industry

Trucking services can be differentiated into Full Truck Load (FTL), Less
Than Truck Load (LTL) and Groupage.

Full Truck Load: few clients FTL is characterized by consignments which are carried out directly on a
moving large goods point-to-point basis. The fact that each consignment fills a whole truck
allows for quick delivery times and minimizes the risk of misplaced cargo.
However, high efficiency and integrated IT systems are required to offer
optimal services to customers.

Full Truck Load illustration

Source: Industry research

Less Than Truck Load: Consignments from several sources which are combined into one full
combines consignments into vehicle load are called LTL. Goods are collected from several points and
one full vehicle load then delivered to several destinations. This process requires more
coordination and multiple operating modes in order to optimize routes and
travel time. The average size per shipment is above 2.5 tons.

Less Than Truck Load illustration

Source: Industry research

Groupage or “hub and spoke Smaller-sized shipments in the range of between 30kg and 2.5 tons are
network” usually transported by groupage, whereas goods from several different
shippers are consolidated in a depot, sorted by destination and then
shipped collectively with other goods with the same destination. From a
terminal at the point of destination goods are then delivered to the
customers in the final step.

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Groupage illustration

Source: Industry research

European FTL market

Highly fragmented market The typical European truck company is rather small: 51% of the registered
transportation companies operate just one truck, while another 34%
operate a number of trucks between two and 10. Just 1% of the companies
are big players with 50 or more trucks. This highly fragmented market
provides for continued organic growth throughout the cycle, but also leaves
substantial potential for market consolidation.

Even big players with small Waberer’s has a share of 0.2% of the total road transportation market. Big
market share players such as DHL Freight and DB Schenker account for 1.3% and 2%,
respectively. This underlines the high fragmentation of the market.
Counting only the European International road freight market, Waberer’s
market share would be around 0.5%.

Waberer’s no.1 in terms of FTL Nevertheless, Waberer’s is the no.1 FTL player in terms of own fleet. The
fleet company calls 2,970 trucks their own, excluding the trucks of the regional
business. Four other companies possess a number of trucks in the range of
2,600-2,900, i.e. Girteka, Fercam, Willi Betz and XPO Logistics. The no.6
and no.7 ranked Gartner and Duvenbeck each operate 1,500 some trucks.

International own-fleet players (no. of trucks) Market share transport of selected players

Waberer's 2,970
Girteka 2,900 Dachser 1.1%
DHL Freight 1.3% DSV 1.1%
Fercam 2,850 DB Schenker Kuehne+Nagel
Willi Betz 2,800 2.0% 0.8%
XPO Logistics 2,653 Waberer's 0.2%
Gartner 1,500
Duvenbeck 1,500
Transalliance 875
Rhenus 840 Other
arcese 648 93.6%

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Source: Transport Intelligence (2017) Source: Transport Intelligence (2017)

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European road freight market outlook

Road transportation most Road transportation is – by far – the most important mode of transportation
important transportation mode in Europe, covering more than 70% of the total ton-kilometers, which
amounted to 1,768 in the EU in 2015. Road transport is also an important
economic sector, employing around 5mn people across the EU and
generating around EUR 300bn, or 2% of total GDP.

Growing faster due to trade The transportation sector to a certain extent reflects trends in the economy.
multiplier effect; CAGR of 3.8% However, the industry is expected to grow faster than GDP, supported by
from 2011-20 expected the trade multiplier effect. Growth of international road freight outperforms
real GDP growth by a factor of >3x. This favorable trend is supported by
the shift of production facilities to CEE countries on the one side, and the
increase of international trade due to globalization of production and supply
chains on the other.

European int. road freight market (EURbn) European online retail sector (EURbn)
120 106 111 350 319
93 97 101 290
100 85 88 300 262
80 81 82 236
80 250 212
189
200 169
60 150
150 117 133
40
100
20 50
0 0
2016e

2017e

2018e

2019e

2020e
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

2018e

2019e

2020e
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: Company data, Transport Intelligence (2017) Source: Marketline

The main driving force behind the growing logistics business is booming e-
commerce, which is expected to continue its growth pace in the future. The
sector value should reach EUR 319bn in 2020 according to Marketline. The
CAGR calculated from 2011 on would then amount to an outstanding
11.8%. New concepts like Click & Collect probably create even more
business opportunities for transportation companies.

Hungarian logistics market outlook

Real GDP and private consumption growth Hungarian domestic road freight market (EURbn)

6% 3.0
4.8% 2.4 2.5
5% 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.3
3.8% 2.1 2.1
4% 1.8 1.8 1.9
3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0
2.7% 2.7%
3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 1.5
2% 1.5% 1.4%
1.0
1%
0.5
0%
RO SV PL HU CZ EU 0.0
2016e

2017e

2018e

2019e

2020e
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

GDP growth Private consumption growth


Source: Company data, Economist Intelligence Unit Source: Company data, Transport Intelligence (2017)

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The macro picture in Hungary looks good. Analysts forecast average GDP
growth of 2.4% until 2020. Real private consumption is expected to rise by
2.7% on average in the same period of time. The even stronger expected
growth in the neighboring CEE countries should additionally support the
Hungarian logistics market. Four European transport corridors pass through
Hungary and thus provide access to all major parts of Western Europe.
Hungary itself has positioned itself as a distribution and logistics center, as
well as an industrial and manufacturing center in the outstandingly growing
CEE region.

Key market themes

E-commerce sets trends E-commerce as main driver of industry


 Large online retailers aim to gain control of whole value chain
including distribution networks.
 Vertical integration of e-commerce companies (e.g. pre-sorting of
parcels, delivery to hubs, etc.) supports FTL/LTL.
 FTL potential for warehouse-to-warehouse transportation might
increase.
 Waberer’s is well-positioned due to its existing contracts with
leading e-commerce retailers and due to the size of its network.

Further optimization of Increase of Just-In-Time-Deliveries


shipments  Increasing importance of “just-in-time” deliveries leads to reduction
in size and weight and increase in number of shipments.
 Certainty and speed of delivery becomes more important; FTL
should benefit from this development.
 Waberer’s offers exactly these kinds of logistics solutions and has
already proved to be a reliable partner for many years.

Main cost factor of industry Fuel price fluctuations


 Fuel prices are the most important cost factor for the industry.
 Fluctuation of prices is mostly passed through to the customers via
fuel clauses in the contracts.
 Time lags of up to six months before freight rate adjustments are
possible.
 Storage facilities and partnerships with Shell and Q8 Oil help
Waberer’s to minimize fuel costs.

Attractive package offered to Driver shortage


increase retention rates  Driver shortage is the main problem of the industry and will
probably force smaller companies out of the market.
 Waberer’s has increased salaries and offers an attractive package
of driver benefits. This results in increasing retention rates.

Brexit as next challenge? Legal and political considerations


 Increasing regulation such as minimum wages, excise taxes, driver
related laws regarding working hours and conditions makes it more
and more complicated, particularly for smaller companies.
 Brexit might have an impact on the transportation sector as the flow
of goods might change.
 Waberer’s is geographically very well-diversified and benefits from
its size.

Competitive advantages through Technological trend


technology  Telematics has found its way into the industry and represents
competitive advantage.

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 Even marginal efficiency gains may have significant economic


effects.
 Waberer’s can rely on its established in-house telematics systems.

Economies of scale are key M&A activity and market consolidation


 Economic growth, particularly in Europe, makes the industry highly
attractive.
 Economies of scale are key. Smaller companies have to look for
niches.
 Waberer’s is strongly committed to playing an active role in the
consolidation process.

Intermodal transportation to Other trends


come  Popularity of containerized freight is increasing; the use of
intermodal transportation (e.g. road-rail combination) is becoming
more and more important.
 Customers look for full service providers offering also warehousing
and advisory and in some cases the whole supply chain
management.
 Waberer’s offers all kinds of tailor-made solutions. The company
has also already started intermodal transportation.

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Financial development

Key financials

Top line increase of 11%, Waberer’s top line is growing significantly faster than the market. In 2016,
mainly due to added insurance revenues increased by roughly 11%, to EUR 581.8mn. Both the
business international and the regional business contributed to the favorable
development. Some EUR 41mn were generated by the new insurance
segment. All 2016 numbers are based on pro-forma figures which also
include the 1Q of WHB Insurance (instead of just counting three-quarters
due to first-time consolidation as of April 2016). Pro forma figures also
exclude one-off effects.

The underlying drivers of the company’s top line are:


 the number of trucks
 the total kilometers per truck
 the loaded ratio
 revenues per loaded kilometer

Freight forwarding, LTL revenues and revenues from other logistics


business, such as warehousing, complete the revenues of the company’s
core business. As mentioned before, insurance revenues were added in
2016.

Revenue overview (EURmn) EBITDA development (EURmn)


600 581.8 80 76.3
522.5 41.4 71.5
496.2 68.1 4.9
70
500 97.0 11.5 13.0
87.5 8.0
77.6 60
400
50
300 Other 40 Other

443.4 Regional 30 60.1 60.0 Regional


200 418.6 435.0 58.4
International 20 International
100
10
0 0
2014 2015 2016p 2014 2015 2016p

Source: Company data Source: Company data

EBITDA suffering from higher The EBITDA line is also steadily increasing. In 2016, EBITDA increased by
personnel expenses, but still some 7% to EUR 76.4mn. At first glance, other business, which includes
above last year’s level the recently-added insurance business, seems to be solely responsible for
the growing EBITDA. However, it has to be mentioned that Waberer’s P/L
had to absorb a sharp increase in personnel costs in 2016. The company
had to adjust the wages for drivers to (1) secure the driver base necessary
for its operations and (2) to fulfill various minimum wage regulations in its
countries of operations. For its international business alone, this had an
impact of around EUR 15mn, according to our calculations, which also
explains the slight decline in the respective EBITDA.

Improving net margins Waberer’s net profit climbed from EUR 11.1mn in 2014 to EUR 15.8mn in
2016. The net margins rose from 2.2% to 2.7% in the same period. The
company benefitted from declining financial expenses and a lower effective
tax rate.

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The free cash flow came in at EUR 32mn in 2016 after a slightly negative
number in 2015. The graph on the next page shows the impact of the
insurance business on the company’s free cash flow and gives an
explanation as to why Waberer’s decided to integrate WHB Insurance.

Net profit (EURmn) and net margins Free cash flow and impact insurance (EURmn)

20 2.6% 2.7% 3.0% 40


2.2% 2.5% -3
30
15
2.0%
20
10 1.5% Net profit 32
16 10 21 Insurance
14 1.0% Net margin
5 11 -13 Logistics
0.5% 0 -3
0 0.0% -10
2014 2015 2016p 2014 2015 2016p
Source: Company data Source: Company data

Main business drivers

Number of trucks to increase The number of trucks and the number of drivers define the company’s total
further capacity. In 2016, the number of trucks for the international segment stood
at 2,970, making Waberer’s the no.1 FTL player in terms of fleet. The
steady growth in average number of trucks underlines the group’s ambition
to further expand its business. The mid-term plans foresee a fleet of 3,500
trucks for the international segment and around 800 trucks for the regional
one.

Utilization level well above The utilization level has constantly increased in the last couple of years,
industry average proving that Waberer’s internally developed operational systems do a great
job. The utilization levels exceed those of the group’s wider European
competitors. While the international figure of 91.6% is hard to top, and is
therefore expected to remain rather stable in the near future, the 86%
utilization rate of the regional business leaves some room for improvement.
The company expects a gradual improvement and convergence to the
international segment level.

Average number of trucks Utilization rates

3,500 94%
2,916 2,970 91.6%
3,000 2,739 92% 90.9% 91.3%
2,500 90%
2,000 88%
International 86.0% International
1,500 86% 84.5%
Regional 83.9% Regional
1,000 580 84%
529 517
500 82%
0 80%
2014 2015 2016p 2014 2015 2016p
Source: Company data Source: Company data

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Kilometers per truck down in The kilometers per truck figures reveal dropping figures in 2015. These
2015 due to driver shortage were due to the driver shortage the company faced, especially in the
second half of the year. With increased wages, the problem could have
been solved. The 2016 numbers have already shown some improvements.
With the propriety IT systems WIRE and WIPE, the number of driven
kilometers per truck in the international segment should further increase by
slightly above 1% per annum. The regional business again shows more
room for upgrades. A low double-digit gradual increase of driven kilometers
per truck is targeted for the mid-term.

Kilometers per truck Revenues per loaded kilometer (EUR)

12,000 11,110 10,886 11,171 1.20 1.17


1.15
1.15 1.13
10,000
8,000 7,046 1.10
6,710 6,659
1.05 1.01
6,000 International 1.00 International
1.00 0.98
4,000 Regional Regional
0.95
2,000 0.90
0 0.85
2014 2015 2016p 2014 2015 2016p
Source: Company data Source: Company data

Low oil prices influence Revenues per loaded kilometer declined in 2016 in both segments. This
revenues per kilometer can – at least partially – be explained by the reduced fuel prices, which are
passed through to the customers. Assuming somewhat stable oil prices, the
revenue per loaded kilometer in the international business should be lifted
by some 60bp per annum, while revenues in the regional division are
assumed to stabilize at a mid-single digit percentage level lower than 2016,
in line with market pricing trends.

Fuel expenses biggest cost Fuel expenses are the biggest cost block in the company’s P/L accounting
block for almost EUR 105mn in 2016. A change of just 1% has an impact of more
than EUR 1mn on the company’s top line. Since fuel prices are mostly
passed on to clients via fuel clauses in the contracts, the impact on
operating profit is very limited and only affects the short term. This is also
the reason why the company does not actively hedge. Some 75% of costs
are hedged naturally in any case.

Fuel prices (EUR) Fuel consumption (liters per 100km)

1.20 1.10 30.5 30.1 30.0 30.1 30.0


1.00 0.94 30.0
0.87
0.81 0.78 0.76 29.3
0.80 29.5
International 29.0
0.60 International
28.5 28.3
0.40 Regional Regional
28.0
0.20
27.5
0.00 27.0
2014 2015 2016p 2014 2015 2016p
Source: Company data Source: Company data

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Fuel consumptions as key Fuel consumption is a key parameter in the company’s cost accounting.
parameter Permanently ongoing IT developments and investments in telematics are
helping to optimize fuel consumption. Waberer’s has also implemented a
remuneration program which rewards drivers for low fuel consumption
driving. A shift to the newer EURO 6 trucks restrained the company from
further reducing fuel consumption in 2016. However, Waberer’s targets
further substantial reductions in the coming years.

Repair and maintenance Due to some technological changes and fleet replacements in the regional
expenses to be reduced in mid- segment, repair and maintenance costs have changed somewhat
term compared to the previous year. Waberer’s comprehensive vehicle
maintenance program minimizes vehicle downtimes and enhances the
resale value of the trucks at the same time. The company is optimistic that
it can cut the repair and maintenance costs of the international fleet by
almost 20% in the mid-term. The regional segment will probably see an
increase due to one-offs in 2017, which should be followed by a reduction
below today’s level.

Repair and maintenance costs (Cent/km) Driver costs (Cents/km)

8 25
21.7
6.7 20.3
7 6.1 18.3
5.9 20
6 15.7 15.2
14.4
5 4.1 4.4 15
3.9 International
4 International
10 Regional
3 Regional
2 5
1
0 0
2014 2015 2016p 2014 2015 2016p
Source: Company data Source: Company data

Driver costs expected to further Driver costs – as already mentioned – significantly increased due to the
rise adjustments of wages in order to secure the driver base and to comply with
all regulations in other countries. Although the sharp increase seen in 2016
might be regarded as one-off, driver costs are expected to rise further in the
mid-term, by around a fifth in the international business, and by some 25%
in the regional segment.

Transit costs (Cent/km) Insurance fees (EUR per truck and year)
25 22.0 10,000
21.2 20.5 20.3
19.4 8,111
20 16.8 8,000
6,305
15 6,000
International International
3,964
10 Regional 4,000 Regional
2,245 2,038 1,852
5 2,000

0 0
2014 2015 2016p 2014 2015 2016p
Source: Company data Source: Company data

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Transit costs minimized by own Transit cost could be reduced in the international business in 2016.
routing software Waberer’s own intelligent routing software helps to minimize these costs.
After a slight increase in 2017, transit costs should develop in a rather
stable manner in the international business, according to the company’s
business plans. The regional segment should face a significant drop in the
current year, followed by stable development in the short term.

Acquisition of insurance The development of the insurance fees explains why the company decided
company already pays off to take the necessary step and internalize insurance costs in the future.
The deal to acquire the insurance company has already paid off. The
acquisition price of EUR 13mn paid in 2016 helped the company to already
save EUR 12mn in the first year, according to Erste estimates. While
insurance premiums in the international segment are expected to
significantly decline in 2017, premiums in the regional business will
probably rise.

CAPEX and net debt

CAPEX to be roughly stable in Gross CAPEX amounted to EUR 70mn last year. Deducting a EUR 33mn
coming years income from the sale of the fleet, net CAPEX came in at EUR 37mn, mainly
covering the ongoing program of updating trucks from EURO 5 to EURO 6
classified trucks, the maintenance of the fleet as well as investments in the
technological infrastructure. Gross CAPEX is expected to be a low teen
percentage of revenues in the mid-term, while revenues from fleet sales of
around EUR 30mn per annum can also be expected for the coming years.

CAPEX development (EURmn) Net debt development (EURmn)


140 300
120 250
10 32
100 21
43 200
80 30 Cash
Sale of fleet 150
60 232 Net debt
33 Net capex 100 210 211
40 74 68
20 50
37
0 0
2014 2015 2016p 2014 2015 2016p
Source: Company data Source: Company data

Net debt reduced to EUR Net debt was reduced to EUR 211mn. The net debt / recurring EBITDA
211mn multiple stood at 2.77x at the end of 2016, a level which the company feels
comfortable with, clearly below the covenant level of 3.5x. Management
aims to reduce this multiple to 2-2.5x in the coming years.

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1H17 earnings review

Half-year snapshot

(EURmn) 1H16 1H17 y/y


Revenues 276.4 313.2 13.3%
International 227.3 235.3 3.5%
Regional 43.6 60 37.6%
Other* 10.2 24.4 139.2%
Intersegment -4.7 -6.5
EBITDA 37.9 37.7 -0.5%
Reccuring EBITDA 38.9 40.4 3.9%
International 31.5 27.6 -12.4%
Regional 6.1 8.9 45.9%
Other* 1.3 3.9 200.0%
EBIT 12 12.3 2.5%
Reccuring EBIT 13.1 14.9 13.7%
Net profit** 6.5 9.5 46.2%
Recurring EBITDA margin 14.1% 12.9%
Reccuring EBIT margin 4.7% 4.8%
Net margin 2.4% 3.0%
*Other segment is effectively the third-party insurance business. It was consolidated in only
the second quarter of 2016; therefore, these figures do not contain the 1Q16 data. While in
1Q16 it had EBIT of 1.3mn, in 1Q17 and 2Q17 it had EUR 2mn and EUR 1.9mn, respectively.
**Recurring net profit after minorities.

Main takeaways related to half-year report

 The International Transport Segment (ITS) still experienced some


pressure and, despite the increased number of trucks (+4.1%), the
increased run kilometers and the improved loaded ratio to 92%, i.e.
by 0.3% points, the 3% lower number of transportation days had a
negative effect.
 Regional business saw strong and improving performance thanks
to the new contracts (Audi, Tesco). It seems that the logistics
segment is especially strong. The number of trucks, warehousing
capacity and sold square meter income per annum also increased
dynamically.
 Other business segment (third-party insurance) had a dynamic
increase in 2Q17; but it looks as though, after strong improvement
thanks to data mining, potential operating profit is flat at around
EUR 2mn per quarter.
 In the same period last year, one-off items were EUR 1.1mn, while
this year they reached EUR 2.6mn. The company will account the
IPO costs directly into equity in 3Q17 and will also restate the 1H17
figures. As a consequence, the recurring and accounting figures
will be significantly closer to each other.
 Net debt stood at EUR 221.4mn at the end of 1H17, i.e. 2.9x the
level of recurring EBITDA
 The average age of trucks has started to increase from 2.1 years. It
now stands at a bit below 2.3 years, which is in line with the
strategic plan of 2.2-2.5 years.

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Conference call summary

 After the 1H17 result, management held a cc. They see the annual
plans as being on track, meaning an improving result q/q. Thanks
to strong cost control, profitability improvement is expected and
they emphasized that a negative calendar effect in the ITS
segment (one less transport day in 1H17 than a year ago) was
visible in 1H17.
 They also added that they are not seeing a driver shortage and
some 7% driver cost growth is expected in this year, vs. the strong
increase in previous years.
 After the improvement of the insurance business y/y, flat EBITDA
development is expected in the coming quarters.
 Further improvement is expected in the regional business thanks to
new contracts and market development.
 After the LINK acquisition is closed in 3Q17, consolidation will be
seen in 2H17. Due diligence has been started and consolidation of
procurement and controlling should bring cost advantages of EUR
1-2mn by the end of the year. By the first quarter of next year, the
centralization of sales and integration of IT is expected to bring
about the mid-term goals. (Overall, around some EUR 5mn p.a.
according to earlier communication).
 They are monitoring the possibilities for further acquisitions, but for
the time being the organic growth and integration of LINK is the
target.

Miscellaneous

Waberer’s is the fifth biggest stock on the Budapest Stock Exchange


Potential inclusion in BUX (BSE); it therefore has a good chance of being included in the BUX index
index in September after the review on the first of September. The new basket will be valid from
September 18.

The inclusion criteria are:


 Only three weeks of trading history is needed for the investigation.
 At least three of the criteria below must be satisfied for inclusion:
 Stock must be traded in at least 95% of trading days, counted
from when trading started. According to recent figures, it is
likely that this criterion will be satisfied.
 Equity must be at least 0.5% of the total equity of the market.
This is at around 1% after the capital increase, so in other
words this is satisfied.
 Free float capitalization must be at least HUF 5bn, or within the
first 20: The free float is around HUF 25bn, meaning that this
criterion is also satisfied.
 Trading transaction numbers on the market must be at least
5,000 or within the first 20. It looks like this will not be satisfied.
 Turnover must be at least HUF 5bn, or within the first 15. Due
to the only less than two months of trading, this most probably
will not be satisfied.

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This means that Waberer’s shares will most probably be included in the
BUX index from September 18. This step might imply some additional
demand for the stock in the value of EUR 1-2mn.

Inclusion in CECE index The selection of the members of the CECE index is based on turnover and
free-float capitalization. All eligible shares are ranked according to turnover
and free-float capitalization. Stocks that fulfil a minimum rank according to
turnover and free-float capitalization will be included in the respective index.
In the case of a Hungarian company, the required minimum rank is a top 10
instrument.
As the watch lists are ranked according to 12-month median turnover
values, Waberer’s had a very limited chance to become an index member
in the March semi-annual index revision, but this is more likely in
September. Waberer’s has already met the free-float capitalization
requirement.

Lawsuit against certain truck Waberer’s initiated a lawsuit against certain truck producers at the Munich
producers District Court to recover damages resulting from competitive conduct
related to the coordination of prices. One year earlier, the EC imposed a
fine of EUR 2.93bn on truck producers (MAN, Volvo/Renault, Daimler,
Iveco and DAF) due to their cooperation in the pricing of trucks and
technological developments (delays) between 1997 and 2011. The EC
called on potential entities affected by the anti-competitive behavior to seek
compensation before the courts. Waberer’s bought thousands of trucks in
the above-mentioned period and might be affected. On the other hand, the
company did not give any figures on potential damage and said that
experts are investigating the case and working on an assessment.

It is hard to estimate the potential effect, but the company most probably
spent tens of millions of euro in purchasing trucks in the above-mentioned
14-year period. This means that the claim may reach EUR 0.5-1mn or even
more. On the other hand, the case is uncertain and could take many years.
Therefore, there is no reason to account for any effect from it.

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Assumptions and model

Estimations for the financial model

In our assumptions, we opted to remain on the conservative side. The


recently-acquired company, LINK, was incorporated in our model, but we
have to stress some limited visibility on the very recent transaction. On the
other hand, it is known that Waberer’s management intends to integrate IT
and some operations into its system, whereas LINK’s fleet is already 100%
compatible with Waberer’s existing fleet.

Slower organic growth in Waberer’s intends to increase the number of trucks in its international
International segment - business to 3,500 organically in the mid-run – in our understanding within
additions from acquisitions five years – which translates into an expectation of some 3% p.a. growth in
number of trucks. On the other hand, the LINK fleet is also young, coming
in with an average age of 1.5 years. In any case, we would expect to see
some more focus on integrating the LINK fleet along with adding vehicles to
Waberer’s original fleet. To be on the conservative side, only flat fleet
development was assumed for LINK.

We expect Waberer’s regional business to remain dynamic, with some


CAGR of 6-7% p.a. Economic growth in Hungary should support sound
momentum. We take the strong showing of Waberer’s regional business in
the 1Q17 results as already an indication of this.

Number of trucks, development and assumptions

6,000

5,000
498 517
458 480
4,000 434

3,000
3,288 3,394 3,500
3,076 3,182
2,000 2,739 2,916 2,970

1,000

529 517 580 647 691 735 779 800


0
2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e

Regional business International business LINK

Source: Company data (2014-16), Erste Group estimates

Engaged in improving monthly Management guided a CAGR of 1.1%, which is a bit above the growth rate
run of trucks recorded in previous years (CAGR of 0.8%). On the other hand, in the
regional business, the CAGR for the next five years is expected to be 2.1%,
which is below the 2.8% that we have seen in the previous five years and
means an overall 11% improvement over the next five years. In the case of
LINK, due to full IT integration and expected full compatibility of the fleet
within five years, full convergence is expected from the present 10,136 km
per month.

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Kilometers per Truck month (km), development and assumptions

14,000

11,416 11,536 11,671 11,799


12,000 11,110 11,171 11,289
10,886

10,000

7,465 7,661 7,807


8,000 7,046 7,232 7,319
6,710 6,659
6,000

4,000

2,000

0
2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e

Regional Business International Business

Source: Company data (2014-16), Erste Group estimates

Despite further IT developments, As the loaded ratio in the international segment is already clearly above the
management expects no further international average of large players, we tend to rather assume flat
improvement in international development here. However, employing ever improving IT systems may still
loaded ratio help to improve the load factor in the segment. In contrast, for the Regional
segment we expect more of a continuous convergence in loaded ratio.
Integrating LINK into Waberer’s fleet and operational management systems
should also help convergence towards a loaded ratio close to levels of 91-
92%.

Loaded ratio (%), development and assumptions

94%

91.3% 91.6% 91.6% 91.6% 91.6% 91.6% 91.6%


92% 90.9% 91.0%
90.0%
90% 88.9%
87.9%
88% 87.2%
86.0%
86%
84.5%
83.9%
84%

82%

80%
2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e

Regional Business International Business

Source: Company data (2014-16), Erste Group estimates

Only slight improvement Slight improvement of around EURc 3/km is expected in the International
expected in loaded kilometer segment and finally a return in prices to 2014 levels. This would add some
revenues EUR 12mn if the same number of loaded kilometers as shown in 2016 is
assumed. However, despite economic momentum, some market
adjustments might drive a decline of EURc 6/km for 2017 and 2018 on the
Hungarian market, wiping out some EUR 8mn p.a. as a result. In turn,
international fees are lower than Polish fees. We feel that LINK most
probably has some 10% higher income per kilometer loaded than
Waberer’s.
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Revenue / loaded kilometer (EURc), development and assumptions

1.20 1.17
1.15
1.15 1.13
1.10
1.10 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.07

1.05
1.01 1.00 1.00 1.01
0.99 1.00
1.00 0.98 0.99

0.95

0.90

0.85
2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e

Regional Business International Business

Source: Company data (2014-16), Erste Group estimates

Cost control and efficiency – key The major cost elements are fuel, transit and driver costs beyond
elements subcontractor fees. While the three first are related to the own FTL
business, the latter is related to the Freight Forward business. These
together represent three quarters of the operating costs. In the financial
model, for LINK a 0.8% lower CAGR is estimated than the top line growth
of around 4% in the coming years. This difference is the estimated effect of
Waberer’s potential improvement of the business.

Fuel consumption (l/100km), development and assumptions

31
30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0
30 29.6
29.3 29.3
28.9
29 28.5
28.3
28 27.6 27.8
27.4
27.1
26.9 26.9
27

26

25
2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e

Regional Business International Business

Source: Company data (2014-16), Erste Group estimates

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Fuel by far largest cost The company passes on fuel price changes to its customers with some
element… time lag; therefore, it is effectively hedged with regard to price fluctuations.
On the other hand, fuel consumption is an important factor in terms of
profit; therefore, telematics developments and remuneration programs help
decrease these. In the model, 7.5% for international and 5% for regional
was incorporated as a decline in five years.

…followed by transit (in FTL) Most countries, as budget gaps increased during the crisis, increased and
introduced new toll-fees. Particularly in Hungary, a new toll-fee system was
introduced in 2H13, which helped narrow the budget gap by some 0.5% of
GDP the second year after the introduction and increased fees for hauliers.
This is one of the reasons for the transit cost increase, but budgets are
healthier in the region. This most probably means less pressure and the
application of intelligent cost-effective route planning helps reduce costs. In
Hungary, there has been a strong, approx. 7% decrease, while on
international routes, some 6% kilometer cost increase is incorporated into
the model.

Transit costs (EURc km), development and assumptions

25
22.0 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
21.2 20.5
20.3
19.4 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8
20
16.8

15

10

0
2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e

Regional Business International Business

Source: Company data (2014-16), Erste Group estimates

Driver business until Driver cost represents the third largest cost element in the company’s own
autonomous tracks enter FTL business. Due to driver shortages and the minimal wage requirement
stream introduced in various western countries, driver cost at Waberer’s increased
by some 15%.

LINK’s good access to Ukraine Despite the generous increase, pressures are likely to emerge again from
could help Waberer’s time to time. While Hungary has had good access to the Romanian driver
market, helping the company with cheaper drivers in the past, the recently-
acquired LINK has good access to Ukraine. The connection in both cases
is the language. A significant number of Hungarian-speaking people live in
Romania, while the Polish language has similarities to Ukrainian.

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Driver costs (EURc/km), development and assumptions Source: Company


data (2014-16), Erste Group estimates
30,00
27,13
26,04
24,96
25,00 23,87
22,79 21,96
21,70 21,23
20,30 19,76 20,50
18,30 19,03
20,00
15,70 15,20
14,40
15,00

10,00

5,00

0,00
2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e

Regional Business International Business

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Valuation
Valuation summary

To determine the fair value of a share of the company, we worked out a


DCF and peer group comparison using the forecasted financials of the
detailed model, including the proceeds of EUR 50mn (EUR 45mn net) from
the most recent capital increase and the consolidation of the recently-
acquired Polish transportation company, LINK. No further acquisitions were
considered in the model, but the organic growth and synergies were
gradually incorporated from 2H17 on.

The target price of EUR 24.2 (HUF 7,345.5) per share was given by the
DCF valuation, in which a 4.8% EBIT margin and 0.7% perpetuity growth
were assumed, along with a WACC of 7.2%.

Checking the result of the DCF valuation, the proper figures, such as EPS,
EBIT, EBITDA and ROE were used for the comparison to peers. Eight
significant players were selected for the comparison.

In this comparison, it was found that the achieved DCF value is significantly
below the P/E, EV/EBITDA and ROE-P/B regression implied fair value
ranges, while being a bit above the EV/EBIT comparison suggested range.

Valuation results/ranges of a share (HUF)

Source: Bloomberg, Erste Group estimates

DCF valuation

Main assumptions

The main assumptions related to the DCF valuation model are as follows:
 Risk-free rate of 1.1%, based on the yield of the 5Y Hungarian
sovereign USD-denominated bond premium added to the 5Y
German benchmark yield, for the explicit period was used, as there
is no proper EUR-denominated sovereign bond for Hungary.
 A yield of 2.8 for perpetuity calculated as the sum of (i) the 5Y
USD-denominated Hungarian bond premium over the 5Y US (1.1%
point); and (ii) the estimated German yield between 2027 and

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2047, according to yields of 10Y and 30Y German bonds (1.7%


point).
 An equity risk premium of 6.75% for the explicit part and 6.3% for
the implicit part, based on Erste Group methodology for different
countries and the credit rating from Standard & Poor’s.
 Beta was selected as 1, as most peers are traded at around this or
a slightly lower level.
 The company cost of debt is some 1.8% in the explicit period, but
with a potential interest rate increase, this might increase to 3.8%
(2.8% risk free + 100bp premium) in the long run.
 The effective tax rate was selected as 26%, as a combination of tax
rates for the long-haul, insurance and Polish business.
 The equity weight around 50%, as the business is financed via
financial leasing. In the long run, a conservative “traditional
gearing” was applied; equity ratio of 70%.
 Although the road freight market is growing more than GDP, the
terminal growth value was selected only as 0.7%. This relatively
low rate was selected in order to remain on the cautious side, as
consumption will most likely not gear by debt for the time being.

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WACC calculation
2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e TV

Risk free rate 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 2.8%


Equity risk premium 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.3%
Beta 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Cost of equity 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 9.1%

Cost of debt 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 3.8%


Effective tax rate 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0%
After-tax cost of debt 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 2.8%

Equity w eight 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 70%


WACC 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 7.2%

DCF valuation
(EUR mn) 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e TV

Sales growth 16.3% 7.7% 4.9% 6.9% 4.2% 5.0%


EBIT 41.7 47.6 49.9 54.2 57.0 52.4
EBIT-margin 5.1% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 5.5% 4.8%
Tax rate 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0%
Taxes on EBIT -10.8 -12.4 -13.0 -14.1 -14.8 -13.6
NOPLAT 30.9 35.2 37.0 40.1 42.2 38.8

+ Depreciation 62.0 63.9 66.9 70.7 72.0 72.0


Capital expenditures / depreciation 89.2% 89.0% 87.0% 91.5% 92.6% 100.0%
+/- Change in w orking capital -5.2 -0.9 -0.3 -1.2 -1.3 -1.1
Chg. working capital / chg. Sales 4.5% 1.4% 0.8% 1.9% 3.0% 15.0%
- Capital expenditures -55.3 -56.9 -58.2 -64.6 -66.7 -72.0

Free cash flow to the firm 32.3 41.4 45.3 44.9 46.3 37.7

Terminal value growth 0.7%


Terminal value 585.9
Discounted cash flow s 31.12.2017 30.9 37.8 39.6 37.5 37.0 467.9
Enterprise value 31.12.2017 650.7

Minorities 9.9
Net debt 237.5
Equity value 31.12.2017 403.2

Number of shares outstanding (mn) 17.43


Cost of equity 7.9%
12M target price per share (EUR) 24.2
Upside comapred to last closing price 46.2%

Enterprise value breakdown Sensitivity (per share)


Term inal value EBIT-m argin
24 3.8% 4.3% 4.8% 5.3% 5.8%
PV 6.2% 22.3 25.8 29.4 33.0 36.5
WACC

detailed 6.7% 20.1 23.3 26.6 29.9 33.1


period 7.2% 18.2 21.2 24.2 27.3 30.3
28%
7.7% 16.6 19.4 22.2 25.0 27.8
8.2% 15.3 17.9 20.5 23.1 25.7

Term inal value grow th


24 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% 1.3%
PV
6.2% 26.7 28.0 29.4 31.0 32.8
terminal
WACC

value 6.7% 24.3 25.4 26.6 27.9 29.4


72% 7.2% 22.3 23.3 24.2 25.3 26.5
7.7% 20.6 21.4 22.2 23.1 24.1
Source: Erste Group Research calc. 8.2% 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.3 22.1

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Multiples-based valuation

P/E Valuation based on P/E multiples

P/E valuation 2017e 2018e 2019e


EPS Estimate (EUR) 1.11 1.33 1.55
Peer group median P/E 26.8x 21.8x 19.4x
Implied share value (EUR) 29.8 29.1 30.0
Implied share value (HUF) 9,088 8,867 9,139
Source: Bloomberg, Erste Group estimates

The peer group’s P/E multiples suggest a well-balanced fair value of


around EUR 30 (HUF 9,000) per share, which is significantly above the
settled price target, and suggest a conservative value for it.

EV/EBITDA Valuation based on EV/EBITDA multiples

EV/EBITDA valuation 2017e 2018e 2019e


EBITDA estimate (EURmn) 89.7 103.7 111.5
Peer group median EV/EBITDA 8.7x 7.6x 6.6x
Implied enterprise value (EURmn) 779.9 786.5 737.9
Net debt & minorities (EURmn) 247.5 233.0 205.6
Implied share value (EUR) 30.5 31.5 30.3
Implied share value (HUF) 9,315 9,598 9,231
Source: Bloomberg, Erste Group estimates

The EV/EBITDA multiples may not have the greatest validity, since they
might vary based on the companies’ asset intensities. EV/EBITDA multiples
suggest a valuation of above EUR 30 (HUF 9,000) per share.

EV/EBIT Valuation based on EV/EBIT multiples

EV/EBIT valuation 2017e 2018e 2019e


EBIT estimate (EURmn) 34.3 41.7 47.6
Peer group median EV/EBIT 19.5x 15.0x 12.9x
Implied enterprise value (EURmn) 667.9 624.4 613.3
Net debt & minorities (EURmn) 247.5 233.0 205.6
Implied share value (EUR) 24.1 22.3 23.2
Implied share value (HUF) 7,356 6,787 7,071
Source: Bloomberg, Erste Group estimates

EV/EBIT multiples provide the lowest range of the valuation within the
multiples used. The fair value comes out at between EUR 22.3 (HUF 6,787)
and EUR 24.1 (HUF 7,356). Of course, our target price is a twelve-month
target, meaning that the achieved EV/EBIT implied range should have
translated to the range of HUF 24-26 (HUF 7,300 – 7,900) by that time.

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Regression ROE-P/B Valuation based on regression analyses of P/B and ROE multiples

Regression ROE-P/B 2017e 2018e 2019e


ROE estimate 14.2% 12.9% 13.1%
Regression P/B multiple 3.77x 2.72x 2.41x
Equity estimate (EURmn) 137.9 181.9 207.2
Implied share value (EUR) 29.9 28.1 28.4
Implied share value (HUF) 9,106 8,574 8,658
Source: Bloomberg, Erste Group estimates

Regression analyses of Return on Equity and the Price-Book Value


Ratio provide relatively high R2s of between 0.73 and 0.83 and indicate fair
share values of between EUR 28.1 (HUF 9,106) and EUR 29.9 (HUF
8,574).

MarketC P/E EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT


(EURmn) 2017e 2018e 2019e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2017e 2018e 2019e
DSV A/S 11,227 25.2x 21.8x 19.5x 16.7x 15.3x 14.4x 20.1x 17.8x 16.4x
JB Hunt Transport Services Inc 9,047 25.3x 21.8x 19.3x 10.8x 9.6x 8.9x 16.8x 14.5x 13.2x
Swift Transportation Co 3,130 27.7x 20.3x 18.1x 9.1x 7.8x 7.5x 21.1x 16.3x 14.1x
Knight Transportation Inc 2,624 38.2x 30.4x 24.5x 12.2x 10.4x 5.3x 23.3x 18.7x 10.2x
Werner Enterprises Inc 1,921 25.4x 21.3x 19.1x 6.4x 5.8x 5.4x 16.4x 13.6x 12.0x
Heartland Express Inc 1,519 31.0x 24.7x 21.2x 8.3x 6.9x 6.1x 18.9x 14.8x 11.9x
Stef SA 1,304 14.1x 13.4x 12.8x 7.7x 7.4x 7.2x 14.3x 13.7x 13.1x
ID Logistics Group 771 37.8x 23.5x 18.9x 11.8x 9.4x 8.3x 20.7x 15.2x 12.7x

MEDIAN 26.8x 21.8x 19.4x 8.7x 7.6x 6.6x 19.5x 15.0x 12.9x
Share P/B ROE Dividend yield
price 2017e 2018e 2019e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2017e 2018e 2019e
price 2017e 2018e 2019e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2017e 2018e 2019e
DSV A/S DK 5.53x 5.03x 4.71x 21.8% 24.5% 25.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7%
JB Hunt Transport Services Inc US 7.22x 6.18x 5.44x 29.3% 30.8% 31.2% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%
Swift Transportation Co US 4.81x 4.02x 2.99x 19.2% 25.1% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Knight Transportation Inc US 3.82x 3.65x 3.41x 10.3% 12.7% 14.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7%
Werner Enterprises Inc US 2.11x 1.96x 1.79x 8.4% 9.8% 10.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
Heartland Express Inc US 3.30x 3.07x 2.70x 10.8% 13.1% 11.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Stef SA FR 2.01x 1.82x 1.66x 15.2% 14.4% 13.7% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6%

MEDIAN 4.8 4.0 2.8 12.6% 13.7% 10.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5%

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Income Statement 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e


(IFRS, EUR mn, 31/12) 31/12/2014 31/12/2015 31/12/2016 31/12/2017 31/12/2018 31/12/2019
Net sales 496.22 522.50 572.35 709.58 825.55 889.50
Cost of goods sold -389.72 -415.56 -452.57 -568.84 -667.15 -719.93
Gross profit 106.50 106.94 119.78 140.74 158.40 169.58
SG&A
Other operating revenues 10.49 7.00 6.21 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other operating expenses -17.90 -5.18 -10.81 -0.90 0.00 0.00
EBITDA 68.06 70.32 69.18 89.68 103.72 111.49
Depreciation/amortization -41.89 -49.56 -52.01 -55.40 -62.02 -63.94
EBIT 26.16 20.77 17.17 34.28 41.69 47.55
Financial result -9.00 -2.88 -3.13 -4.43 -4.43 -4.40
Extraordinary result 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
EBT 17.16 17.89 14.04 29.85 37.27 43.15
Income taxes -6.15 -5.45 -4.87 -6.82 -9.71 -11.13
Result from discontinued operations 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Minorities and cost of hybrid capital -1.15 -1.15 -2.94 -3.45 -4.13 -4.80
Net result after minorities 9.87 11.29 6.24 19.58 23.42 27.22

Balance Sheet 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e


(IFRS, EUR mn, 31/12)
Intangible assets 19.28 19.65 20.51 52.61 52.70 52.78
Tangible assets 250.86 264.27 264.21 309.71 305.60 306.59
Financial assets 0.68 0.81 59.82 59.79 59.79 59.79
Total fixed assets 270.83 284.73 344.54 422.10 418.08 419.15
Inventories 3.26 2.88 3.31 4.46 5.13 4.93
Receivables and other current assets 122.22 142.21 133.77 158.78 179.20 189.72
Other assets 0.35 0.46 0.56 0.58 0.61 0.64
Cash and cash equivalents 20.94 10.44 31.67 15.36 23.44 50.58
Total current assets 146.76 155.99 169.31 179.18 208.38 245.87
TOTAL ASSETS 417.59 440.72 513.85 600.71 634.62 672.11
Shareholders'equity 90.49 100.52 105.62 170.19 193.62 220.83
Minorities 4.30 4.73 7.86 9.93 12.41 15.29
Hybrid capital and other reserves 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pension and other LT personnel accruals 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
LT provisions 0.96 0.95 47.10 47.94 48.83 49.76
Interest-bearing LT debts 179.55 161.79 162.24 180.00 173.17 170.88
Other LT liabilities 5.76 5.07 3.44 3.62 3.80 3.99
Total long-term liabilities 185.32 166.85 165.69 183.62 176.97 174.86
Interest-bearing ST debts 51.23 81.06 80.85 72.90 70.83 69.96
Other ST liabilities 85.30 86.61 106.73 116.13 131.97 141.40
Total short-term liabilities 136.53 167.67 187.59 189.03 202.80 211.37
TOTAL LIAB. , EQUITY 417.59 440.72 513.85 600.71 634.62 672.11

Cash Flow Statement 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e


(IFRS,EUR mn, 31/12)
Cash flow from operating activities 57.88 53.93 70.96 61.39 84.15 94.45
Cash flow from investing activities -37.33 -44.34 -35.93 -127.27 -55.35 -56.89
Cash flow from financing activities -15.07 -6.38 -6.24 50.42 -6.69 -6.02
CHANGE IN CASH , CASH EQU. 12.16 2.20 28.30 -15.66 22.10 31.54

Margins & Ratios 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e


Sales growth 11.9% 5.3% 9.5% 24.0% 16.3% 7.7%
EBITDA margin 13.7% 13.5% 12.1% 12.6% 12.6% 12.5%
EBIT margin 5.3% 4.0% 3.0% 4.8% 5.1% 5.3%
Net profit margin 2.2% 2.4% 1.6% 3.2% 3.3% 3.6%
ROE 11.5% 11.8% 6.1% 14.2% 12.9% 13.1%
ROCE 5.4% 5.1% 3.3% 6.2% 6.5% 7.4%
Equity ratio 22.7% 23.9% 22.1% 30.0% 32.5% 35.1%
Net debt 209.8 232.4 211.4 237.5 220.6 190.3
Working capital 9.9 -12.1 -18.8 -10.4 5.0 33.9
Capital employed 311.4 343.7 375.5 469.2 479.2 480.1
Inventory turnover 76.0 135.3 146.2 146.3 139.2 143.2
Source: Company data, Erste Group estimates

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Contacts
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Disclaimer
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Source:
Regression
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prices as of
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overview
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2017 Reg
Sourc Group Research – Company Report
ressionErste
e: Bloomberg
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2018e 22 August 2017
Reg
ressionSourc
Links
e: Bloomberg
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2019e Erste Group may provide hyperlinks to websites of entities mentioned in this document, however the inclusion of a link does not imply that Erste
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Erste Group Bank AG does not deal for or advise or otherwise offer any investment services to retail clients.

Czech Republic: Česká spořitelna, a.s. is regulated for the conduct of investment activities in Czech Republic by the Czech National Bank
(CNB).

Croatia: Erste Bank Croatia is regulated for the conduct of investment activities in Croatia by the Croatian Financial Services Supervisory
Agency (HANFA).

Hungary: Erste Bank Hungary ZRT. and Erste Investment Hungary Ltd. are regulated for the conduct of investment activities in Hungary by the
Hungarian Financial Supervisory Authority (PSZAF).

Serbia: Erste Group Bank AG is regulated for the conduct of investment activities in Serbia by the Securities Commission of the Republic of
Serbia (SCRS).

Romania: Banka Comerciala Romana is regulated for the conduct of investment activities in Romania by the Romanian National Securities
Commission (CNVM).

Poland: Erste Securities Polska S.A. is regulated for the conduct of investment activities in Poland by the Polish Financial Supervision Authority
(PFSA).

Slovakia: Slovenská sporiteľňa, a.s. is regulated for the conduct of investment activities in Slovakia by the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS).

Turkey: Tarkus Advisory, a non-regulated Turkish advisory company, is the exclusive equity research partner of Erste Group Bank AG, and is
acting on behalf of Erste Group Bank AG to cover Turkish issuers. Content, ratings and target prices are under the sole responsibility of Erste
Group Bank AG.

Switzerland: This research report does not constitute a prospectus or similar communication in connection with an offering or listing of
securities as defined in Articles 652a, 752 and 1156 of the Swiss Code of Obligation and the listing rules of the SWX Swiss Exchange.

Hong Kong: This document may only be received in Hong Kong by ‘professional investors’ within the meaning of Schedule 1 of the Securities
and Futures Ordinance (Cap.571) of Hong Kong and any rules made there under.

© Erste Group Bank AG 2017. All rights reserved.

Published by:

Erste Group Bank AG


Group Research
1100 Vienna, Austria, Am Belvedere 1
Head Office: Wien
Commercial Register No: FN 33209m
Commercial Court of Vienna
Erste Group Homepage: www.erstegroup.com

Erste Group Research – Company Report Page 58

For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
R E SE AR CH RE PO RT DIS TRI BUT ED BY
The attached research report and the
excerpts from the research report found on
the first page were written entirely by a broker
partner of Auerbach Grayson, and not by
Auerbach Grayson

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE
The attached research report was prepared by the correspondent broker named above, and by
the correspondent broker’s analysts named in the attached report and is dated the date set forth
above. This report was not prepared by Auerbach Grayson & Company.

The correspondent broker and its research analysts are not associated persons of Auerbach
Grayson & Company, nor are they affiliated with Auerbach Grayson & Company. The
correspondent broker named above and its research analysts are not subject to the SEC rules on
research analysts. They are not members of, or registered with, the Financial Industry Regulatory
Authority (FINRA). They are not subject to FINRA’s rules on Debt Research Analysts and Debt
Research Reports, Equity Research Analysts and Equity Research Reports, and the FINRA rules
on communications and the attendant restrictions and disclosures required by those rules.
[If the report is to be distributed to more than Major U S institutional Investors. Auerbach
Grayson & Company accepts responsibility for the contents of this report as provided for
in SEC releases and SEC staff no-action letters.]

All persons receiving the attached report and wishing to buy or sell any of the securities
discussed in the attached research report should do so through a representative of Auerbach
Grayson & Company. Auerbach Grayson & Company will share in the commissions charged for
executing such an order. Auerbach Grayson & Company and its affiliates do not own one per
cent (1%) or more of any class of equity or debt securities of the issuers discussed in the
attached report, Auerbach Grayson & Company and its affiliates have not received any
investment banking compensation from any of the issuers discussed in the attached report in the
past twelve months, and do not intend to seek or expect to receive investment banking
compensation from any of the issuers discussed in the attached report in the next three (3)
months. Auerbach Grayson & Company has not acted as manager or co-manager of any public
offering of securities issued by any of the companies discussed in the attached research report in
the past three (3) years. Neither Auerbach Grayson & Company nor any of its officers own
options, rights, or warrants to purchase any of the securities of the issuers discussed in the
attached research report, and Auerbach Grayson & Company and its associated persons do not
stand ready to buy from or sell to any persons, as principal, any of the securities discussed in the
attached research report.

YOUR LOCAL BROKER


IN OVER 125 MARKETS Auerbach Grayson & Company, LLC
WORLDWIDE 25 West 45th Street New York, NY 10036 Telephone 212 557 4444 Toll-Free 1 800 31world web www.agco.com
R E SE AR CH RE PO RT DIS TRI BUT ED BY

Trading 212.557.4444 traders@agco.com


Settlements 212.557.4478
Fax 212.557.9066

Executive
David S. Grayson Chief Executive Officer 1.212.453.3553 david@agco.com
Garth Ballantyne Managing Director, Global Trading 1.212.557.4444 gballantyne@agco.com
Frank Muller Managing Director, Global Operations 1.212.453.3518 fmuller@agco.com

Sales
Nikhil Bhatnagar Asian Sales 1.212.453.3573 nbhatnagar@agco.com
Hideaki Fukuchi Asian Sales 1.212.453.3541 hfukuchi@agco.com
Abhijit Kukreja Asian Sales 1.212.453.3561 akukreja@agco.com
Zoran Milojevic Director CEEMEA & LATAM Sales 1.212.453.3589 zmilojevic@agco.com
Simon Mandel CEEMEA & LATAM Sales 1.212.453.3571 smandel@agco.com
Michael Daoud CEEMEA & LATAM Sales 1.212.453.3586 mdaoud@agco.com
Stephan Lueck Western Europe Sales 1.212.453.3538 slueck@agco.com
Dirk Schnitker Western Europe Sales 1.212.453.3531 dschnitker@agco.com

Trading
Geoffrey Gimber US & LATAM Trading 1.212.557.4444 ggimber@agco.com
John Geron Asian Trading 1.212.557.4444 jgeron@agco.com
Mike LoPiano Asian Trading 1.212.557.4444 mikelopiano@agco.com
Sam Oh Asian Trading 1.212.557.4444 soh@agco.com
Steven Pollicino Emerging Market Trading 1.212.557.4444 spollicino@agco.com
John Krase Emerging Market Trading 1.212.557.4444 jkrase@agco.com
Yin You Emerging Market Trading 1.212.557.4444 yyou@agco.com
John Hurkala Program Trading 1.212.557.4444 jhurkala@agco.com
Mathew McConnell Global Capital Markets 1.212.557.4444 mmcconnell@agco.com

Trading Desk Hours (New York Time) – Sunday 4:00 pm to Friday 5:00 pm (24 Hours)
*After trading hours, please call 1.212.557.4444 and you will automatically be connected to a trader.

Research
Greg Sinnott Research Coordinator 1.212.453.3549 gsinnott@agco.com

Information Services
Ismael Sadek Information Technology 1.212.453.3512 isadek@agco.com

Settlement 1.212.557.4478 ops@agco.com

YOUR LOCAL BROKER


IN OVER 125 MARKETS Auerbach Grayson & Company, LLC
WORLDWIDE 25 West 45th Street New York, NY 10036 Telephone 212 557 4444 Toll-Free 1 800 31world web www.agco.com

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