Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Company Report
Hungary
Trucking
Bloomberg: > We initiate our coverage of Waberer’s with a Buy recommendation and a twelve-month
[WABERERS HB] target price of EUR 24.2 (HUF 7,345.5) per share, a figure derived from a DCF model
Market Cap: based on a detailed financial forecast that includes the recently-acquired Polish
EUR 293.70 transport company LINK, which will be consolidated from 2H17. A peer group
valuation supports the DCF-suggested target price.
Outstanding Shares:
17.69 m > Waberer’s International is a Hungarian-based transportation and logistics provider with
its own standardized and modern fleet of around 3,700 trucks (1H17) operating in the
One Month Avg. EU and enjoys the estimated 4% p.a. growth of the international freight market.
Daily Trading vol.
(USD m): 0.24 > As it is effectively the biggest own fleet player in the EU, many scale advantages are
52 week High/Low: visible: low maintenance costs, purchasing power due to bulk purchasing of trucks and
HUF 5,199.00 / HUF fuel, and a high load factor. The latter is also because the internally developed
4,576.00 operational IT systems are designed to optimize freight carry time and minimize the
idle time of each truck. Outstanding loaded ratios of around 92% demonstrate the
effectiveness of these systems.
> At the next review of BUX membership on the 1 September, Waberer’s most probably
will be included as at least three of the five criteria expected to be fulfilled according to
Erste calculations. This may bring some additional demand on stock from the funds
having BUX index as benchmark.
> Different valuation metrics led to a TP of EUR 24.2 (HUF 7,345.5) per share – a
significant, more than 40% upside, compared to the present share price. In the
detailed financial model, including the effect of he recently acquired Polish transport
company, LINK, from July 1 this year, was the basis for the valuation. The DCF
valuation was the basis for the determination of the TP, while for cross checking, the
peer group multiples (P/E, P/EBITDA, P/EBIT and ROE regression – P/B) show a
significantly higher value in many cases.
Waberer’s International
Initiated with Buy
Analyst:
József Miró
Operational excellence combined with acquisitions
+36 1 235 5131
jozsef.miro@ersteinvestment.hu
We initiate our coverage of Waberer’s with a Buy recommendation and
a twelve-month target price of EUR 24.2 (HUF 7,345.5) per share, a
figure derived from a DCF model based on a detailed financial forecast
that includes the recently-acquired Polish transport company LINK,
which will be consolidated from 2H17. A peer group valuation supports
the DCF-suggested target price.
As it is effectively the biggest own fleet player in the EU, many scale
advantages are visible: low maintenance costs, purchasing power due
to bulk purchasing of trucks and fuel, and a high load factor. The latter
is also because the internally developed operational IT systems are
designed to optimize freight carry time and minimize the idle time of
each truck. Outstanding loaded ratios of around 92% demonstrate the
effectiveness of these systems.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Table of contents
Executive summary 3
SWOT 5
Company profile 7
Regulatory environment 27
Market overview 29
Financial development 35
Assumptions 43
Valuation 48
Contacts 55
Disclosures 56
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Executive summary
Different valuation metrics Different valuation metrics led to a TP of EUR 24.2 (HUF 7,345.5) per
suggest TP of EUR 24.2 (HUF share – a significant, more than 40% upside, compared to the present
7,345.5) per share – significant share price. In the detailed financial model, including the effect of the
upside recently acquired Polish transport company, LINK, from July 1 this year,
was the basis for the valuation. The DCF valuation was the basis for the
determination of the TP, while for cross checking, the peer group multiples
(P/E, P/EBITDA, P/EBIT and ROE regression – P/B) show a significantly
higher value in many cases.
Standardized fleet of 3,550 Waberer’s is a leading international long-haul road transportation company
trucks, focus on FTL based in Hungary. It owned 3,550 trucks with around 2,970 trucks in the
international business on average in 2016, making the company the no.1
international full truck load (FTL) company in terms of owned fleet size in
Europe. With its highly standardized and homogeneous fleet, Waberer’s
serves clients all across the European Union.
International business In 2016, the company recorded EUR 582mn in revenue and recurring
contributes most to top line EBITDA of EUR 76mn, based on pro-forma figures. 76% of revenue was
generated in the international business segment. Aside from FTL, the
international division offers truckload brokerage and groupage services.
The regional segment recorded outstanding growth after acquiring
Szemerey in 2013. In 2016, Waberer’s internalized the insurance business,
which helps to significantly bring down costs. In the last four years,
Waberer’s recorded average top line growth of 11.4%, far above almost all
competitors’ figures.
Strong, growing road freight Waberer’s is operating in a favorable business environment. The European
market international road freight market is estimated to grow by around 4.5%
annually up to 2020. The transportation sector to a certain extent reflects
trends in the economy; however, the industry is expected to grow faster
than GDP, supported by the trade multiplier effect. But the domestic market
also offers a lot of opportunities, as Hungary is in the middle of a strong and
growing CEE region.
Very well-diversified customer Waberer’s is serving a very well-diversified customer base. In the
business, many blue-chip international business, no client has a share of over 4% of total revenue.
clients The 10 biggest clients account for 22% of the division’s revenue. The
company provides services for a number of blue-chip companies.
Erste Group Research – Company Report Page 3
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Waberer’s persuades with availability, quality and price offering all kind of
tailor-made logistics solutions.
Significant scale advantages The standardized fleet provides significant scale advantages: low
maintenance and repair costs, purchasing power due to bulk purchasing of
trucks and fuel, and a high load factor. The average truck age is 2.1 years
(as of 2016); trucks are replaced after around 4-5 years. As part of the
strategy, and thanks to the in-house maintenance, the company has started
to extend the replacement period. As a consequence, the average age of
its trucks will increase in future. The size of the fleet also accounts for
positive network effects.
OMU system as unique Waberer’s has established a unique business model by forming clusters of
business model “Operational Management Units” (OMU), each with 60-65 trucks and 80-90
drivers. These units are formed as limited liability companies in which the
company holds a minimum 51% stake and 75% plus one share voting
rights. The remaining stakes are held by managing directors responsible for
driver recruitment and management. This system combines the operational
and financial scale of a leading road transportation company with the
flexibility and personal approach of a small-sized company.
Commitment to growth The company is not only substantially outperforming the market in terms of
growth, it is also clearly committed to further growth in the future. This could
be organic, but Waberer’s is also prepared to take an active part in the
consolidation of the highly fragmented European road transportation
market. The first step has been carried out via the acquisition of the Polish
transportation company, LINK. After integration brings fruits of synergies of
EUR 5-7mn pa, further acquisitions are expected, as Waberer’s wants to
lead the consolidation of the highly fragmented market.
Efficiency is key Utilization rate and fuel efficiency are perhaps the most important
parameters in the industry. Waberer’s runs its proprietary WIRE and WIPE
system, aimed at helping to optimize the company’s business. The
international segment shows a strong 92% utilization rate in 1H17 and the
company is able to steadily reduce fuel consumption by various measures.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
SWOT analysis
Experienced management
Successful management, Ferenc Lajkó, CEO, and Barna Erdélyi, CFO, together have 35 years of
industry-recognized board of experience in the industry. A couple of experienced and well-known experts
directors of the industry are on the board of directors. The fact that Lajkó and Erdélyi,
have accompanied György Waberer, the founder of the company, for many
years of the successful history of the company, is definitively a big
advantage. Their proven experience in restructuring and integrating
companies should help Waberer’s in the future.
Fast-growing market
European international road Road is the most preferred mode of freight transportation in Europe, with a
freight market grows by 4.5% relatively stable share of more than 70% of total ton-kilometers. This trend
on average should be supported by infrastructure investments, which are significantly
higher than in other modes of transport. The European truckload market
growth is expected to exceed GDP growth by far.
Erste Group Research – Company Report Page 5
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Regulatory environment
Changes in legal framework The whole sector is being continuously confronted with changes in the legal
might hit profitability framework. Germany, for example, introduced a minimum wage of EUR
8.50 per hour as of January 1, 2015, and raised this to EUR 8.84 in 2017.
Labor costs are therefore increasing, which of course has a negative
impact on the whole industry’s P/L. Changes in excise taxes, emission
standards and other driver-related European regulations may also influence
profitability. Indeed, smaller companies would probably suffer even more
from regulatory changes, but this is cold comfort for the bigger ones.
Driver shortages
Retention rates relatively low in For road companies, it is sometimes difficult to hire truck drivers, mainly
transportation sector due to the fact that other jobs are better paid and less exhausting. Churn
rates are generally high in this sector. Further significant increases in
wages would harm the business model. Waberer’s is recording high
retention rates, due to various measures. However, driver shortages are a
problem for the whole industry.
Economic downturn
CEE countries more volatile in Although not very likely from today’s point of view, a possible economic
terms of economic development downturn would affect the industry. The last crises showed that the GDP
development of CEE countries is generally more volatile than that of
Western European countries. The company’s location in Hungary could be
an additional disadvantage in this case.
Brexit
Brexit might change flow of Brexit might change the flow of goods in the European transportation
goods market and Waberer’s has relatively high exposure in the UK, which is
currently generating some 12% of the company’s top line. Brexit could
therefore have a negative impact on the company’s financials, albeit it
creates opportunities as well (e.g. profit from custom clearance).
Transit cost
Road toll could increase Due to high indebtedness, countries are looking for additional sources of
income. Road tolls might be one of those. Transit costs for trucks might
increase and could also impact the company’s financials.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Company profile
Company description
3,550 trucks with focus on Waberer’s is a transportation and logistics provider with an own fleet of
long-haul FTL around 3,550 trucks in 2016. The company is the no.1 own-fleet player in
the European full truck load (FTL) industry, but also the no.1 in road
transport and logistics services in Hungary. The size of the company brings
a lot of advantages in terms of economies of scale and procurement. The
fleet is young, with an average age of just 2.1 years and the utilization rate
of the international segment currently stands at 91.6%.
The company employed in total some 4,800 drivers in 2016. Around 4,070
of them operated in the international business, serving approx. 3,300
clients in 28 countries in Europe. The regional business covers the whole
value chain including warehousing, with total capacities of almost 170,000
sqm. Since 2016, the company also offers – through its subsidiary WHB –
insurance services related to transportation.
Waberer's 2,970
Girteka 2,900
Fercam 2,850
EUR 582mn revenues and In 2016, the company recorded EUR 581.8mn in revenues and EBITDA of
EUR 76mn EBITDA EUR 76.4mn (based on pro-forma figures). EUR 443.4mn or 76% of the
total revenues were generated in the International business, which is by far
the largest and most important segment. The Regional business generated
EUR 97mn (or 17%), while EUR 41.4mn (or 7%) came from “Other”, which
is basically the recently-added insurance business.
Revenues 443 97 41
EBITDA 58 13 5
Source: Company data, PF=pro forma, including 1Q16 insurance business and excluding
EUR 4.4mn one-off costs
Erste Group Research – Company Report Page 7
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Hungary, UK and Germany The company has a very well-diversified client base, with Fast Moving
most important markets Consumer Goods (23% of total revenues), Automotive (16%) and
Electronics (12%) representing the most important industries. Waberer’s
top client accounts for 4% of the company’s revenues, but the top 50 clients
generate just 42% of the top line. Country-wise, Hungary unsurprisingly
ranks first, with 17% of the revenues produced by the Regional segment
and another 12% originating internationally. The UK and Germany follow
with 12% each, just ahead of France with 11%.
Hungary Top 4%
Reg. 17% FMCG 23%
Top 2-10
18%
Others
36% Hungary Others
Int. 12% 49% Others
58% Top 11-50
Automotive
UK 12% 20%
16%
France Electronics
Germany
11% 12%
12%
71.99%
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Management
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
History
1948 Volán Tefu was founded as a state-owned company to serve the domestic
market for road cargo transportation.
1994 György Waberer and his associates acquired Volán Tefu in the course of
the privatization process. At this time, the company generated some EUR
4mn in revenues but posted a loss of around EUR 2mn.
1999 After paying back the debt of around EUR 3mn, the company focused on
growth. In 1999, various acquisitions were made by Volán Tefu.
2002 Volán Tefu acquired Hungarocamion, which was at this time approx. 10
times bigger than the company in terms of assets, in order to establish the
largest transportation and logistics service provider in Hungary and Central
Europe.
2003 The name of the company was changed to WABERER’S. The company
introduced its customer-specific service system “WABERER’S OPTIMUM
SOLUTION”
2009 The company’s unique OMU system was developed as a response to the
increasing driver churn rate and difficult market conditions.
2012 The group structure was improved through various mergers with
Waberer’s as legal successor.
2017 Waberer’s increased its capital by issuing new shares in the value of EUR
50mn on the BSE in an IPO attempt. At the same time, the ownership of
the main shareholder, MEP, decreased to 71.99%. EUR 32mn of the
proceeds were used to purchase a Polish transportation company, LINK.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Divisions
1. International Segment
International business The International Segment is Waberer’s biggest, responsible for 76.2% of
accounts for 76% of group’s the group’s revenues and 76.5% of EBITDA (as of 2016). These numbers
top line have declined somewhat, due to the increasing importance of the domestic
business on the one side, and the acquisition of the insurance business on
the other.
Top line growth slowed down In 2016, the company recorded revenues in the amount of EUR 443.3mn, a
due to oil price development slight increase of 1.9% compared to the previous year. Top line growth
rates have declined in the last two years somewhat, partly due to the low oil
prices that are passed on to customers.
EBITDA with one-off effect in EBITDA stood at EUR 58.4mn (based on pro-forma figures, which do not
2016 include one-off items) after EUR 60mn in 2015 and EUR 60.1mn in 2014.
The reason for the decline on the EBITDA level is increased personnel
expenses due to adjustments in the compensation scheme which were
necessary to (1) secure the driver base necessary for its operations and (2)
to comply with various minimum wage regulations in its countries of
operation.
Groupage HU 16%
& LTL 5% 450 443
Other 29%
FTL FF 440 435
15% 430
DE 16% 419
420
IT 8% 410
FTL 80%
UK 16% 400
FR 15%
2014 2015 2016
2,970 trucks and around 4,070 Waberer’s deploys 2,970 trucks with an average age of 2.1 years in the
drivers International Segment. With approx. 4,070 drivers, the company serves
3,300 customers in Europe. The utilization rate of 91.6% is one of the
highest in the industry. In 2016, 284,000 transports were carried out with
398mn km driven.
Focus on full truckload, The International Segment is primarily focused on standardized full
biggest fleet in Europe truckload (FTL) operations, generating some 80% of the division’s
revenues. Waberer’s highly standardized own fleet focuses solely on FTL
orders for the transport of palletized goods. The fleet of uniform,
interchangeable trucks and trailers is managed by the centralized control
center in Budapest.
Key selling points: The large fleet results not only in significant scale and cost leadership, but
(1) Availability, (2) Quality and also allows the company to guarantee capacities in all major markets, with
(3) Price Germany, the UK and Hungary on top, followed by France, serving a broad
range of blue-chip customers. The huge number of trucks also enables the
company to optimize its network and quickly react to clients’ needs (“there
is always a Waberer’s truck nearby”). Enhancing the asset deployment of
this large fleet also means a reduction in empty runs, leading to a high
utilization rate of currently 91.6% (in 2016).
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
FTL Freight Forwarding for FTL Freight Forwarding generates around 15% of the International
specialized transportation Segment revenues. 55,000 transports were subcontracted in 2016.
services also outside EU Specialized transportation services, also to non-EU destinations which
cannot be served by Waberer’s standardized fleet, such as dangerous
goods, oversized transports or the transportation of non-palletized goods,
are generally forwarded to companies which have to fulfill Waberer’s
stringent quality requirements.
Also helps to balance own fleet Freight forwarding also helps the company to optimize its own assets and
orders balance the flow of own fleet orders. Generally speaking, freight forwarding
broadens coverage and increases the flexibility to provide all kinds of
services to customers.
International Groupage and International Groupage and LTL (“Less Than Truck Load”) accounts for
LTL with some EUR 22mn 5% of the segment’s top line. It includes scheduled runs of smaller loads
revenues across Europe but also express cargo forwarding, door-to-door deliveries
as well as related services, such as warehousing. 21,000 transports were
carried out in 2016. The network currently comprises two collection
warehouses and some 100 pick-up points in Europe. The two Hungarian
groupage platforms are located in Budapest and Győr.
Predominantly subcontracted Although the International Groupage and LTL segment is not going to be
to Hungarian small hauliers the big business in the future, it helps to deepen client relationships. Just as
with FTL Freight Forwarding, it complements the FTL services, but these
services typically do not involve any of the standardized trucks of the
division’s fleet.
2. Regional Segment
Revenues already close to With the acquisition of Szemerey in 2013, Waberer’s became the no.1 on
EUR 100mn the Hungarian market. In the meantime, revenues further increased to EUR
97mn and the Regional Segment now accounts for 16.7% of the group’s
total revenues. EBITDA amounted to EUR 13mn in 2016 and therefore
generated 17% of Waberer’s EBITDA line.
No.1 in road transport and As the leading transportation and logistics provider in Hungary and
logistics services in Hungary adjacent regions, Waberer’s offers its customers short and medium haul
road transportation, distribution and warehousing services.
Segment split Geographical footprint Revenue development (EURmn)
580 own trucks and 720 drivers The segment’s backbone consists of 9 logistics centers, 18 warehouses
(including the central cross-dock warehouse in Budapest) with total
capacity of almost 170,000 sqm as well as 580 trucks with some 720
drivers. Some 450 trucks are subcontracted (out of which there are 150
small ones) to manage possible overflows.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Key selling points: As a fully integrated distribution player, Waberer’s offers the full spectrum
(1) Solutions, (2) Scale and of logistics services. To be more flexible in terms of adding warehousing
(3) Brand capacities at short notice, the company has some optional warehousing
capacities at a multinational oil and gas company. Waberer’s offers storage
services of normal and refrigerated goods, pallet movement, factory
outsourcing and other value-added services such as packaging. The
company is also a dominant player in temperature control throughout the
whole distribution chain.
3. Insurance
Purchase price EUR 13mn… In 2016, the company acquired Wáberer's Hungária Biztosító (WHB), the
insurance company established to insure Waberer’s fleet, which was
considered too large for multinational insurance companies in the past. The
purchase price was EUR 13mn and Waberer’s was already able to save
around EUR 12mn in insurance costs in the first year, according to Erste
Group estimates. The company recorded an outstanding combined ratio of
78% in 2016.
…cost savings EUR 12mn in first The rationale behind this move was (1) to limit exposure to rising insurance
year expenses by the internalization of these insurance services and (2) to gain
access to the loss data of the fleet. Waberer’s has already identified some
weaknesses and reacted by implementing some measures, e.g. specialized
drivers for left-hand-drive traffic in the UK.
rd
3 party business not planned to Due to rising prices, motor third-party liability insurance (MTPL) premiums
be expanded have also substantially stepped up in Hungary. The increase from EUR
288mn to EUR 421mn in the period from 2014 to 2016 means average
annual growth of more than 20%.
WHB is now the 8th largest non-life insurer in Hungary with a market share
of 3% and the 3rd largest player in the MTPL insurance market (as of
2016). WHB’s main competitors in the MTPL business are Allianz, K&H,
UNIQA and Generali. However, Waberer’s management is not aiming to
expand WHB’s current business.
Group’s fees per truck (EUR) WHB revenues (EURmn) WHB EBITDA (EURmn)
10,000
8,111
8,000
6,305
6,000 Waberer's 3rd party
3,964 26.4 4.8
4,000
2,245 2,038 1,852
2,000 3rd party
41.2 Waberer's
0
2014 2015 2016 8.0
Source: CompanyInternational
data Regional Source: Company data Source: Company data
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Fleet
Young fleet of 3,550 trucks, Waberer’s average fleet size in 2016 amounted to 3,550 trucks. This
average age 2.1 years number has constantly increased over the past years; in 2013, the
acquisition of Szemerey, with a fleet of 465 trucks, helped to bring this
number up. With an average age of just 2.1 years, Waberer’s fleet is rather
young. This has the advantage that maintenance costs can be kept low. It
also offers drivers more comfort, which results in improving retention rates.
On the other hand, management decided to gradually extend the
replacement period. In 1H17, the average age of the trucks was increased
to 2.3 years and some further increase is expected. We do not see this
change as having a significant effect on business at least for the time being
and see it as in line with the strategy (see below). This step could improve
cash-generating activity.
Modern and state-of-the-art All trucks are equipped with telematics and GPS track and trace system.
equipment While the international fleet with 2,970 trucks is fully standardized and
interoperable, the regional fleet is variably equipped and adapted to clients’
needs.
Fleet development
2011 2,335
2012 2,439
2013 2,999
2014 3,268
2015 3,433
2016 3,550
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Buyback Program
Buyback guarantee as price The vehicle purchases from original equipment manufacturers usually
floor include buyback options, which is exercisable within 48 months on an
average for trucks and 60 months for trailers. A leasing company usually
finances the purchases. The OEM grants the buyback guarantee, but
Waberer’s has the option to purchase the buyback right on equipment (i.e.
trucks and trailers) at the end of the lease period and sell the vehicle to a
third party in case of favorable market conditions.
Maintenance
Maintenance with scale effects Vehicle maintenance is carried out by the company in maintenance centers
in Budapest and Mosonmagyaróvár close to the Austrian and Slovakian
border. Technicians are trained and authorized by the OEMs. A seven-day
operation in three shifts provides the ability to maintain the whole fleet
throughout the year. The leverage of procurement scale and purchase
power to negotiate prices makes maintenance significantly cheaper than
OEM-owned ones.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Operations
(1) Client sourcing The typical customer acquisition cycle usually starts with client sourcing,
which is coordinated by the Hungarian and Polish offices by selecting the
freight forward orders. The in-house credit assessment before starting a
business prevents the company from incurring bad debt.
(2) Quote and offer A pricing team consisting of two professionals prepares the terms tailored
to a particular request. The team is supported by specific software and
obtains the approval of the tender committee. A sales representative then
enters into negotiations with the customer.
(3) Agreement finalization Negotiations include the final contract terms including fuel clauses,
invoicing and possible cancellations. Legal support may be involved to
finalize the agreement.
(5) Relationship Management Contractual duties are exercised on a daily basis. Renegotiations are part
of the daily business. A team of 16 professional key account managers
provide the necessary support in order to optimize relationship
management.
Acquisitions process vary on Depending on the type of client, the acquisition process might vary. While
type of client key accounts are usually served in a multistage tender process, the spot
business is selected based on market conditions. Regional contract
logistics is mainly procured by a streamlined tender process.
International business half Around half of the international business and almost all regional business
spot, half contracted run under key accounts with an average contract length of one year
(international business) and 3-5 years (regional business), respectively.
Key accounts guarantee capacities for customers.
High visibility also for spot The spot business generates non-contractual revenues, but the extensive
business track record and long-term customer relationships also provide high
visibility. The strong brand known for reliability and quality helps a lot.
Customer base
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
90% of Waberer’s customers are beneficial cargo owners, while just 10%
are freight forwarders. The company is serving a very well-diversified
customer base which includes all kinds of industries. Fast-moving
consumer goods currently take the top position among the most important
industries followed by Automotive and Electronics. No client has a share of
more than 4% of the group’s revenues. The top 50 clients generate just
42% of Waberer’s total revenues.
Fuel management
Fuel management plays an important role, since fuel is the largest cost
contributor (EUR 0.24 per km). The company implemented a lot of
measures to bring fuel consumption down:
All these measures help to steadily reduce fuel consumption. Over six
years, average fuel consumption dropped from 31.9 liters per 100km to
29.8 liters. This is a reduction of 6.6%.
Employees
120%
Office 100%
workers 17%
20% Labour 80%
workers Regional
6% 60%
Drivers International
40%
74%
20% 83%
0%
Source: Company data Source: Company data
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Innovation
Strong commitment to With annual CAPEX of EUR 2.7mn spent on IT, Waberer’s shows its strong
innovation commitment to a long-term technology leadership in the industry.
Core IT system as backbone The ongoing update of the company’s core IT system helps to improve the
backbone of the group’s IT system, which is the basis for business
optimization driving operational efficiency, pricing optimization and working
capital efficiency. The system is currently being upgraded to SAP
Transportation. The additional SAP modules will be added to the already
existing ERP (“enterprise resource planning”) financial system, which is
covering the master data such as vehicles, employees and customer
details.
Bespoke IT system The company has a bespoke IT system for organizational purposes and for
operations. Beyond the internal usage of the IT system, the company
equipped all trucks with GPS track and trace systems, with full use of
Astrata’s FleetVisor software. This provides direct communication with all
drivers and records their driving performance. This real-time monitoring of
the entire fleet system also helps to improve efficiency.
WIRE calculates optimal route Waberer’s has its proprietary WIRE system – “Waberer’s Intelligent
Route Planning Engine” – that is used to optimize freight carry time and
minimize the idle time of each own-asset truck, via calculating the optimal
route between pickup and delivery points, taking into account a
sophisticated multivariable algorithm. This is a complex and well-known so-
called “traveling agent” mathematical problem, for which the company
believes it has a competitive solution regarding cost elements (1) fuel, (2)
transit, (3) order lead-time and (4) EU regulations of maximum driving and
minimum rest time for drivers.
Planning optimal fuel stops and In addition to optimal route planning, the (1) optimal fuel stops, (2) rest
rest locations locations for drivers and (3) back-leg load transport opportunities are also
considered. The WIRE software was launched in January 2016.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
WIPE matches free truck The proprietary WIPE system (“Waberer’s Intelligent Planning Engine”)
capacities optimally matches free truck capacity and orders received from customers.
This minimizes empty running trucks and helps to increase the loaded ratio,
one of the important KPIs in the long-haul transportation business.
TDMS, Paragon and WebEye Beyond the important WIPE, WIRE and FleetVisor systems, Waberer’s
uses other operations-related systems:
Telematics allows effective The company strongly believes in future technologies. Telematics, which
tracking and optimization of combined a range of technologies such as telecommunications and GPS,
fleet and drivers allows effective tracking and optimization of fleet and drivers. Management
expects an increase of the number of implemented Telematics from 4mn in
2015 to 8mn in 2020 which would mean a 99% penetration of Europe’s
new truck market.
Self-Driving Trucks could bring Future technologies also include Self-Driving Trucks, which address
costs down by 28% several challenges to the industry, thereby making the timing of its
implementation hard to predict. However, it has the potential to
metamorphose the industry. Significant cost savings can only be expected
in the long term, and large fleet operators could gain advantages by
forming intra-fleet platoons.
Waberer’s as one of first using Independent studies suggest that cost savings comprise fuel (-11%), wages
technology for drivers (-81%), insurance and tax (-40%), administration & garage (-
10%), repair and maintenance (-15%), while capital costs and depreciation
should increase (+15%). Total costs of operations could decline by 28%
according to various studies. Waberer’s sees itself as one of the first to use
this technology.
Partnerships with Volvo and Waberer’s has formed several partnerships and has agreements with
Mercedes Volvo and Mercedes in order to maintain its leading positions in terms of
technology. In March 2017, a logistics system engineer and planning
Master’s course started at Széchenyi István University in Gyor.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Unique business model Waberer’s has a unique business model for its international transportation
business, so-called “Operational Management Units” (OMU). The structure
was developed during the main crisis period, in 2010, as an answer to the
deteriorating business environment, to improve the efficiency of the drivers
and stoke entrepreneurial spirit among key employees. After positive
feedback, the number of these companies increased to 20 by the end of
2013. In the last two years, Waberer’s has fine-tuned the system and
started to improve the numbers of this kind of companies inside the
International Business segments again. As of December last year, the
number of OMUs amounted to 39 operating 95% of the trucks of the
international segment.
Due to the nature of the OMU structure, tasks are definite. It is clearly
stated for what Waberer’s and the OMU are responsible. Via this structure,
Waberer’s has full operational and commercial control over these
companies:
Waberer’s responsible for Waberer’s headquarters has the following duties and tasks:
technical infrastructure and Sales: relationship management, pricing, order flow
orders Planning: route optimization, capacity allocation
Control: full operational and commercial control
Finance: debt financing and leasing contracts
HR: payroll management and policy, employment standards
Procurement: bulk purchase of fuel, tolls, equipment, R&M
PR: marketing, brand development, access to key accounts
Legal: ongoing proceedings and regulatory issues including tax
Combines scale and flexibility This unique business model combines the operational and financial scale of
a pan-European transportation company with the flexibility of a smaller
trucking company
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Strategy
Successful M&A track record Growth through M&A will be a key driver for Waberer’s, with the company
already showing a successful track record of acquisitions under the current
CEO:
M&A Timeline
20-25 identified targets in CEE The company has identified 20-25 potential targets in the areas of
international transportation and regional logistics in the high-growth CEE
economies (Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia).
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Regional logistics: SMEs In regional logistics, mid- and small-sized logistics providers are targeted.
targeted with expansion into The business focus is on expansion into new business areas along the
new business areas vertical value chain.
Consolidation has begun At the end of 1H17, Waberer’s acquired a road transportation and freight
forwarding company in Poland named LINK, fitting the above criteria. LINK
recorded EUR 94.3mn in revenues in 2016 and generated an EBITDA of
EUR 10.5mn and a recurring EBIT of EUR 5mn. It runs a fleet of 430
EURO 6 trucks (average age of 1.5 years) and 680 trailers (average age of
two years) as of March 2017. Revenues are split almost equally between
International FTL and Freight Forwarding. The target has an established
presence across European markets (PL, UK, DE and FR). The customer
base is diversified, with companies from automotive, FMCG, household
appliances and others. The equity purchase price amounts to EUR 32mn,
net debt stood at EUR 42mn. Hence, the EV EBITDA multiple amounts to
7.1x, the P/E ratio is some 11.4x. Management expects high single-digit
EURmn EBITDA synergies by 2020, which would make multiples even
more attractive and easily bring EV/EBITDA below 6x.
Strategic fit for Waberer’s The acquisition is a strategic fit for Waberer’s diversifying revenue streams,
consolidating a modern fleet, increasing the density of coverage, increasing
scale as well as accessing new labor and customer end markets.
High single-digit EBITDA Management estimates that high single-digit EBITDA synergies could be
synergies could be achieved achieved by 2020, of which around 60% are from revenue synergies and
by 2020 40% from cost synergies, over a three-year ramp-up period.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Waberer’s can exploit its scale Waberer’s can perfectly exploit its scale, as only big market players have
and management expertise the capacity and number of orders to fill a whole train. At the same time,
this complementary business provides increased growth with fewer trucks
while reducing transit cost. Waberer’s thus also fulfills increasing client
expectations to provide such capabilities.
Limited CAPEX risk The expected capital expenditure is limited, with an additional EUR 1mn for
500 craneable trailers compared to normal trailers.
LINK International Transport In June, Waberer’s bought a Polish FTL transportation company, LINK
founded in 1989 International Transport, which was founded in 1989. In 2016, LINK reached
EUR 94.3mn in revenue. The equity value of the firm is EUR 32mn. The
company focuses on two segments, (1) International FTL Transportation
and (2) freight forwarding. These two segments are equally split in terms of
revenues. LINK has broad European reach, with exposure to the top 10 EU
markets. Its biggest presences are in Poland and the UK.
Sharp increase in revenues in LINK’s revenue increased by 40.8% in 2016 and reached PLN 406.5mn
2016 (EUR 94.3mn). The increase was mainly driven by the Freight Forwarding
segment. In 2016, EBITDA reached PLN 36.3mn (EUR 10.5mn), rising
33.0% compared to 2015. The EBITDA increase was mainly driven by a
revenue increase, but offset by an increase in per diem costs, due to recent
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
labor market changes and one-off items, such as a loss on the sale of fixed
assets and transaction advisory fees.
406.5 36.3
288.7 27.3
Extremely young fleet, average As of March 2017, the company employed 427 leased EURO 6 trucks with
age 1.5 years an average age of around 1.5 years and 675 trailers with an average age of
around two years. The trucks are equipped with a telematics system, which
promotes an eco-driving style and reduces the impact on the engine and its
components. Due to the high standards, trucks are replaced every 2-3
years. As a result of the homogenous characteristics, all trucks can be used
interchangeably, which increases efficiency rates.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Balance Sheet
Cash 31.7 1.8 33.4 5.6%
Loans 15.0 9.8 24.8 65.4%
Leases 228.1 32.2 260.3 14.1%
Other - 2.0 (3) 2.0 n.a.
Gross debt 243.1 44.1 287.1 18.1%
Net debt 211.4 42.3 253.7 20.0%
x LTM EBITDA 2.8x 4.0x 2.9x 5.5%
Notes: (1) Including adjustments for rental expenses (EUR 1.5mn; relating to fleet leases;
added back due to the capitalization of operating leases), one-off loss on sale of fixed assets
(EUR 0.7mn), one-off transaction advisory fees (EUR 0.2m), as well as other normalizations
(EUR 0.1mn) and accounting adjustments (minus EUR 0.3mn). The reported EBITDA
amounts to EUR 8.3mn, the reported EBIT amounts to EUR 3.1mn. (2) Standalone. (3)
Dividend to be paid to previous shareholders considered as short-term liability increasing debt.
This acquisition nicely fits into the strategy of Waberer’s. The company
planned to expand in a high-growth CEE economy with a strong
geographical footprint in a core EU market, with an FTL business focus.
Waberer’s has huge experience in acquisitions, as it has carried out several
transactions in the past, such as Volán Tefu, Hungarocamion and
Szemerey.
Significant synergies By most measures (real and financial), the acquisition could generate a low
expected single-digit EURmn increase, as can be seen in the table below. Based on
the pro-forma figures, the recurring EBIT increase should reach 21.5% and
net profit should increase by 24.3% as an effect of the transaction.
0
2017E Medium Term
Source: Company data
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Revenue synergies should be realized during the coming years, but in 2017
these should still be marginal. Revenue synergies stem from fleet
expansion. Through the acquisition, Waberer’s should gain access to new
customers and markets.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Regulatory environment
Minimum wages to avoid social With labor cost being a key factor for transportation companies, legislation
dumping on minimum wages in the EU countries plays a predominant role. The most
important legislative thresholds enacted on minimum wages were:
EC: Minimum wages should not The European Commission suggested in a preliminary review that
be applicable in transit minimum wages should only be applicable in cabotage and bilateral
transport, but not in transit.
EC also regulates minimum To enhance road safety and promote good working conditions, the EU
working enacted Regulation 561/2006/EC, providing a common set of rules for
maximum daily and fortnightly driving times. Other European regulations
applicable to Waberer’s include the Rome Regulation 593/2008/EC, stating
that, in cases where an employee works in several EU states, the law of the
Member State where the employee habitually works for should apply. In
order to avoid social dumping, Posted Workers Directive 96/71/EC aims to
ensure that minimum terms and conditions of employment applicable in a
Member State must also apply to workers posted to that Member State.
These regulations force transportation operators to have a larger driver
population and to appropriately monitor drivers.
Excise tax changes can be Excise taxes on diesel fuel also affect the cost side of transportation
largely passed to customers companies. Excise tax rates vary across the European Union with a
minimum threshold of 33 eurocents per 1 liter. However, fuel cost increases
can largely be passed through to customers.
Regulatory environment The regulatory environment is constantly evolving with new requirements
subject to changes for hauliers. For example, since 2016, France has required foreign
transport companies to prepare formal documents in French and have a
French representative. Another recently resurfaced hurdle is border
controls due to the refugee crisis. Prolonged transportation times could
decrease the competitiveness of road transportation vs. other modes.
All main licenses required by EU Waberer’s holds all main licenses required by EU and local governmental
transportation agencies and the Hungarian National Transport Authority
(HTNA).
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Market overview
Waberer’s serves all kind of The term Transportation covers all road, rail, air and sea transportation,
needs and offers customized, whereas road transportation is – by far – the most important mode of
tailored solutions transportation in Europe. It can be provided through own assets (“asset-
based”) or brokered capacities (“asset-light”).
Business models
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
But on the other hand, margins are squeezed when demand is high and
capacities consequently low, since customers are not willing to absorb
costs.
Trucking industry
Trucking services can be differentiated into Full Truck Load (FTL), Less
Than Truck Load (LTL) and Groupage.
Full Truck Load: few clients FTL is characterized by consignments which are carried out directly on a
moving large goods point-to-point basis. The fact that each consignment fills a whole truck
allows for quick delivery times and minimizes the risk of misplaced cargo.
However, high efficiency and integrated IT systems are required to offer
optimal services to customers.
Less Than Truck Load: Consignments from several sources which are combined into one full
combines consignments into vehicle load are called LTL. Goods are collected from several points and
one full vehicle load then delivered to several destinations. This process requires more
coordination and multiple operating modes in order to optimize routes and
travel time. The average size per shipment is above 2.5 tons.
Groupage or “hub and spoke Smaller-sized shipments in the range of between 30kg and 2.5 tons are
network” usually transported by groupage, whereas goods from several different
shippers are consolidated in a depot, sorted by destination and then
shipped collectively with other goods with the same destination. From a
terminal at the point of destination goods are then delivered to the
customers in the final step.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Groupage illustration
Highly fragmented market The typical European truck company is rather small: 51% of the registered
transportation companies operate just one truck, while another 34%
operate a number of trucks between two and 10. Just 1% of the companies
are big players with 50 or more trucks. This highly fragmented market
provides for continued organic growth throughout the cycle, but also leaves
substantial potential for market consolidation.
Even big players with small Waberer’s has a share of 0.2% of the total road transportation market. Big
market share players such as DHL Freight and DB Schenker account for 1.3% and 2%,
respectively. This underlines the high fragmentation of the market.
Counting only the European International road freight market, Waberer’s
market share would be around 0.5%.
Waberer’s no.1 in terms of FTL Nevertheless, Waberer’s is the no.1 FTL player in terms of own fleet. The
fleet company calls 2,970 trucks their own, excluding the trucks of the regional
business. Four other companies possess a number of trucks in the range of
2,600-2,900, i.e. Girteka, Fercam, Willi Betz and XPO Logistics. The no.6
and no.7 ranked Gartner and Duvenbeck each operate 1,500 some trucks.
International own-fleet players (no. of trucks) Market share transport of selected players
Waberer's 2,970
Girteka 2,900 Dachser 1.1%
DHL Freight 1.3% DSV 1.1%
Fercam 2,850 DB Schenker Kuehne+Nagel
Willi Betz 2,800 2.0% 0.8%
XPO Logistics 2,653 Waberer's 0.2%
Gartner 1,500
Duvenbeck 1,500
Transalliance 875
Rhenus 840 Other
arcese 648 93.6%
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Road transportation most Road transportation is – by far – the most important mode of transportation
important transportation mode in Europe, covering more than 70% of the total ton-kilometers, which
amounted to 1,768 in the EU in 2015. Road transport is also an important
economic sector, employing around 5mn people across the EU and
generating around EUR 300bn, or 2% of total GDP.
Growing faster due to trade The transportation sector to a certain extent reflects trends in the economy.
multiplier effect; CAGR of 3.8% However, the industry is expected to grow faster than GDP, supported by
from 2011-20 expected the trade multiplier effect. Growth of international road freight outperforms
real GDP growth by a factor of >3x. This favorable trend is supported by
the shift of production facilities to CEE countries on the one side, and the
increase of international trade due to globalization of production and supply
chains on the other.
European int. road freight market (EURbn) European online retail sector (EURbn)
120 106 111 350 319
93 97 101 290
100 85 88 300 262
80 81 82 236
80 250 212
189
200 169
60 150
150 117 133
40
100
20 50
0 0
2016e
2017e
2018e
2019e
2020e
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
2019e
2020e
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
The main driving force behind the growing logistics business is booming e-
commerce, which is expected to continue its growth pace in the future. The
sector value should reach EUR 319bn in 2020 according to Marketline. The
CAGR calculated from 2011 on would then amount to an outstanding
11.8%. New concepts like Click & Collect probably create even more
business opportunities for transportation companies.
Real GDP and private consumption growth Hungarian domestic road freight market (EURbn)
6% 3.0
4.8% 2.4 2.5
5% 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.3
3.8% 2.1 2.1
4% 1.8 1.8 1.9
3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0
2.7% 2.7%
3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 1.5
2% 1.5% 1.4%
1.0
1%
0.5
0%
RO SV PL HU CZ EU 0.0
2016e
2017e
2018e
2019e
2020e
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
The macro picture in Hungary looks good. Analysts forecast average GDP
growth of 2.4% until 2020. Real private consumption is expected to rise by
2.7% on average in the same period of time. The even stronger expected
growth in the neighboring CEE countries should additionally support the
Hungarian logistics market. Four European transport corridors pass through
Hungary and thus provide access to all major parts of Western Europe.
Hungary itself has positioned itself as a distribution and logistics center, as
well as an industrial and manufacturing center in the outstandingly growing
CEE region.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Financial development
Key financials
Top line increase of 11%, Waberer’s top line is growing significantly faster than the market. In 2016,
mainly due to added insurance revenues increased by roughly 11%, to EUR 581.8mn. Both the
business international and the regional business contributed to the favorable
development. Some EUR 41mn were generated by the new insurance
segment. All 2016 numbers are based on pro-forma figures which also
include the 1Q of WHB Insurance (instead of just counting three-quarters
due to first-time consolidation as of April 2016). Pro forma figures also
exclude one-off effects.
EBITDA suffering from higher The EBITDA line is also steadily increasing. In 2016, EBITDA increased by
personnel expenses, but still some 7% to EUR 76.4mn. At first glance, other business, which includes
above last year’s level the recently-added insurance business, seems to be solely responsible for
the growing EBITDA. However, it has to be mentioned that Waberer’s P/L
had to absorb a sharp increase in personnel costs in 2016. The company
had to adjust the wages for drivers to (1) secure the driver base necessary
for its operations and (2) to fulfill various minimum wage regulations in its
countries of operations. For its international business alone, this had an
impact of around EUR 15mn, according to our calculations, which also
explains the slight decline in the respective EBITDA.
Improving net margins Waberer’s net profit climbed from EUR 11.1mn in 2014 to EUR 15.8mn in
2016. The net margins rose from 2.2% to 2.7% in the same period. The
company benefitted from declining financial expenses and a lower effective
tax rate.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
The free cash flow came in at EUR 32mn in 2016 after a slightly negative
number in 2015. The graph on the next page shows the impact of the
insurance business on the company’s free cash flow and gives an
explanation as to why Waberer’s decided to integrate WHB Insurance.
Net profit (EURmn) and net margins Free cash flow and impact insurance (EURmn)
Number of trucks to increase The number of trucks and the number of drivers define the company’s total
further capacity. In 2016, the number of trucks for the international segment stood
at 2,970, making Waberer’s the no.1 FTL player in terms of fleet. The
steady growth in average number of trucks underlines the group’s ambition
to further expand its business. The mid-term plans foresee a fleet of 3,500
trucks for the international segment and around 800 trucks for the regional
one.
Utilization level well above The utilization level has constantly increased in the last couple of years,
industry average proving that Waberer’s internally developed operational systems do a great
job. The utilization levels exceed those of the group’s wider European
competitors. While the international figure of 91.6% is hard to top, and is
therefore expected to remain rather stable in the near future, the 86%
utilization rate of the regional business leaves some room for improvement.
The company expects a gradual improvement and convergence to the
international segment level.
3,500 94%
2,916 2,970 91.6%
3,000 2,739 92% 90.9% 91.3%
2,500 90%
2,000 88%
International 86.0% International
1,500 86% 84.5%
Regional 83.9% Regional
1,000 580 84%
529 517
500 82%
0 80%
2014 2015 2016p 2014 2015 2016p
Source: Company data Source: Company data
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Kilometers per truck down in The kilometers per truck figures reveal dropping figures in 2015. These
2015 due to driver shortage were due to the driver shortage the company faced, especially in the
second half of the year. With increased wages, the problem could have
been solved. The 2016 numbers have already shown some improvements.
With the propriety IT systems WIRE and WIPE, the number of driven
kilometers per truck in the international segment should further increase by
slightly above 1% per annum. The regional business again shows more
room for upgrades. A low double-digit gradual increase of driven kilometers
per truck is targeted for the mid-term.
Low oil prices influence Revenues per loaded kilometer declined in 2016 in both segments. This
revenues per kilometer can – at least partially – be explained by the reduced fuel prices, which are
passed through to the customers. Assuming somewhat stable oil prices, the
revenue per loaded kilometer in the international business should be lifted
by some 60bp per annum, while revenues in the regional division are
assumed to stabilize at a mid-single digit percentage level lower than 2016,
in line with market pricing trends.
Fuel expenses biggest cost Fuel expenses are the biggest cost block in the company’s P/L accounting
block for almost EUR 105mn in 2016. A change of just 1% has an impact of more
than EUR 1mn on the company’s top line. Since fuel prices are mostly
passed on to clients via fuel clauses in the contracts, the impact on
operating profit is very limited and only affects the short term. This is also
the reason why the company does not actively hedge. Some 75% of costs
are hedged naturally in any case.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Fuel consumptions as key Fuel consumption is a key parameter in the company’s cost accounting.
parameter Permanently ongoing IT developments and investments in telematics are
helping to optimize fuel consumption. Waberer’s has also implemented a
remuneration program which rewards drivers for low fuel consumption
driving. A shift to the newer EURO 6 trucks restrained the company from
further reducing fuel consumption in 2016. However, Waberer’s targets
further substantial reductions in the coming years.
Repair and maintenance Due to some technological changes and fleet replacements in the regional
expenses to be reduced in mid- segment, repair and maintenance costs have changed somewhat
term compared to the previous year. Waberer’s comprehensive vehicle
maintenance program minimizes vehicle downtimes and enhances the
resale value of the trucks at the same time. The company is optimistic that
it can cut the repair and maintenance costs of the international fleet by
almost 20% in the mid-term. The regional segment will probably see an
increase due to one-offs in 2017, which should be followed by a reduction
below today’s level.
8 25
21.7
6.7 20.3
7 6.1 18.3
5.9 20
6 15.7 15.2
14.4
5 4.1 4.4 15
3.9 International
4 International
10 Regional
3 Regional
2 5
1
0 0
2014 2015 2016p 2014 2015 2016p
Source: Company data Source: Company data
Driver costs expected to further Driver costs – as already mentioned – significantly increased due to the
rise adjustments of wages in order to secure the driver base and to comply with
all regulations in other countries. Although the sharp increase seen in 2016
might be regarded as one-off, driver costs are expected to rise further in the
mid-term, by around a fifth in the international business, and by some 25%
in the regional segment.
Transit costs (Cent/km) Insurance fees (EUR per truck and year)
25 22.0 10,000
21.2 20.5 20.3
19.4 8,111
20 16.8 8,000
6,305
15 6,000
International International
3,964
10 Regional 4,000 Regional
2,245 2,038 1,852
5 2,000
0 0
2014 2015 2016p 2014 2015 2016p
Source: Company data Source: Company data
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Transit costs minimized by own Transit cost could be reduced in the international business in 2016.
routing software Waberer’s own intelligent routing software helps to minimize these costs.
After a slight increase in 2017, transit costs should develop in a rather
stable manner in the international business, according to the company’s
business plans. The regional segment should face a significant drop in the
current year, followed by stable development in the short term.
Acquisition of insurance The development of the insurance fees explains why the company decided
company already pays off to take the necessary step and internalize insurance costs in the future.
The deal to acquire the insurance company has already paid off. The
acquisition price of EUR 13mn paid in 2016 helped the company to already
save EUR 12mn in the first year, according to Erste estimates. While
insurance premiums in the international segment are expected to
significantly decline in 2017, premiums in the regional business will
probably rise.
CAPEX to be roughly stable in Gross CAPEX amounted to EUR 70mn last year. Deducting a EUR 33mn
coming years income from the sale of the fleet, net CAPEX came in at EUR 37mn, mainly
covering the ongoing program of updating trucks from EURO 5 to EURO 6
classified trucks, the maintenance of the fleet as well as investments in the
technological infrastructure. Gross CAPEX is expected to be a low teen
percentage of revenues in the mid-term, while revenues from fleet sales of
around EUR 30mn per annum can also be expected for the coming years.
Net debt reduced to EUR Net debt was reduced to EUR 211mn. The net debt / recurring EBITDA
211mn multiple stood at 2.77x at the end of 2016, a level which the company feels
comfortable with, clearly below the covenant level of 3.5x. Management
aims to reduce this multiple to 2-2.5x in the coming years.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Half-year snapshot
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
After the 1H17 result, management held a cc. They see the annual
plans as being on track, meaning an improving result q/q. Thanks
to strong cost control, profitability improvement is expected and
they emphasized that a negative calendar effect in the ITS
segment (one less transport day in 1H17 than a year ago) was
visible in 1H17.
They also added that they are not seeing a driver shortage and
some 7% driver cost growth is expected in this year, vs. the strong
increase in previous years.
After the improvement of the insurance business y/y, flat EBITDA
development is expected in the coming quarters.
Further improvement is expected in the regional business thanks to
new contracts and market development.
After the LINK acquisition is closed in 3Q17, consolidation will be
seen in 2H17. Due diligence has been started and consolidation of
procurement and controlling should bring cost advantages of EUR
1-2mn by the end of the year. By the first quarter of next year, the
centralization of sales and integration of IT is expected to bring
about the mid-term goals. (Overall, around some EUR 5mn p.a.
according to earlier communication).
They are monitoring the possibilities for further acquisitions, but for
the time being the organic growth and integration of LINK is the
target.
Miscellaneous
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
This means that Waberer’s shares will most probably be included in the
BUX index from September 18. This step might imply some additional
demand for the stock in the value of EUR 1-2mn.
Inclusion in CECE index The selection of the members of the CECE index is based on turnover and
free-float capitalization. All eligible shares are ranked according to turnover
and free-float capitalization. Stocks that fulfil a minimum rank according to
turnover and free-float capitalization will be included in the respective index.
In the case of a Hungarian company, the required minimum rank is a top 10
instrument.
As the watch lists are ranked according to 12-month median turnover
values, Waberer’s had a very limited chance to become an index member
in the March semi-annual index revision, but this is more likely in
September. Waberer’s has already met the free-float capitalization
requirement.
Lawsuit against certain truck Waberer’s initiated a lawsuit against certain truck producers at the Munich
producers District Court to recover damages resulting from competitive conduct
related to the coordination of prices. One year earlier, the EC imposed a
fine of EUR 2.93bn on truck producers (MAN, Volvo/Renault, Daimler,
Iveco and DAF) due to their cooperation in the pricing of trucks and
technological developments (delays) between 1997 and 2011. The EC
called on potential entities affected by the anti-competitive behavior to seek
compensation before the courts. Waberer’s bought thousands of trucks in
the above-mentioned period and might be affected. On the other hand, the
company did not give any figures on potential damage and said that
experts are investigating the case and working on an assessment.
It is hard to estimate the potential effect, but the company most probably
spent tens of millions of euro in purchasing trucks in the above-mentioned
14-year period. This means that the claim may reach EUR 0.5-1mn or even
more. On the other hand, the case is uncertain and could take many years.
Therefore, there is no reason to account for any effect from it.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Slower organic growth in Waberer’s intends to increase the number of trucks in its international
International segment - business to 3,500 organically in the mid-run – in our understanding within
additions from acquisitions five years – which translates into an expectation of some 3% p.a. growth in
number of trucks. On the other hand, the LINK fleet is also young, coming
in with an average age of 1.5 years. In any case, we would expect to see
some more focus on integrating the LINK fleet along with adding vehicles to
Waberer’s original fleet. To be on the conservative side, only flat fleet
development was assumed for LINK.
6,000
5,000
498 517
458 480
4,000 434
3,000
3,288 3,394 3,500
3,076 3,182
2,000 2,739 2,916 2,970
1,000
Engaged in improving monthly Management guided a CAGR of 1.1%, which is a bit above the growth rate
run of trucks recorded in previous years (CAGR of 0.8%). On the other hand, in the
regional business, the CAGR for the next five years is expected to be 2.1%,
which is below the 2.8% that we have seen in the previous five years and
means an overall 11% improvement over the next five years. In the case of
LINK, due to full IT integration and expected full compatibility of the fleet
within five years, full convergence is expected from the present 10,136 km
per month.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
14,000
10,000
4,000
2,000
0
2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e
Despite further IT developments, As the loaded ratio in the international segment is already clearly above the
management expects no further international average of large players, we tend to rather assume flat
improvement in international development here. However, employing ever improving IT systems may still
loaded ratio help to improve the load factor in the segment. In contrast, for the Regional
segment we expect more of a continuous convergence in loaded ratio.
Integrating LINK into Waberer’s fleet and operational management systems
should also help convergence towards a loaded ratio close to levels of 91-
92%.
94%
82%
80%
2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e
Only slight improvement Slight improvement of around EURc 3/km is expected in the International
expected in loaded kilometer segment and finally a return in prices to 2014 levels. This would add some
revenues EUR 12mn if the same number of loaded kilometers as shown in 2016 is
assumed. However, despite economic momentum, some market
adjustments might drive a decline of EURc 6/km for 2017 and 2018 on the
Hungarian market, wiping out some EUR 8mn p.a. as a result. In turn,
international fees are lower than Polish fees. We feel that LINK most
probably has some 10% higher income per kilometer loaded than
Waberer’s.
Erste Group Research – Company Report Page 44
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
1.20 1.17
1.15
1.15 1.13
1.10
1.10 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.07
1.05
1.01 1.00 1.00 1.01
0.99 1.00
1.00 0.98 0.99
0.95
0.90
0.85
2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e
Cost control and efficiency – key The major cost elements are fuel, transit and driver costs beyond
elements subcontractor fees. While the three first are related to the own FTL
business, the latter is related to the Freight Forward business. These
together represent three quarters of the operating costs. In the financial
model, for LINK a 0.8% lower CAGR is estimated than the top line growth
of around 4% in the coming years. This difference is the estimated effect of
Waberer’s potential improvement of the business.
31
30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0
30 29.6
29.3 29.3
28.9
29 28.5
28.3
28 27.6 27.8
27.4
27.1
26.9 26.9
27
26
25
2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Fuel by far largest cost The company passes on fuel price changes to its customers with some
element… time lag; therefore, it is effectively hedged with regard to price fluctuations.
On the other hand, fuel consumption is an important factor in terms of
profit; therefore, telematics developments and remuneration programs help
decrease these. In the model, 7.5% for international and 5% for regional
was incorporated as a decline in five years.
…followed by transit (in FTL) Most countries, as budget gaps increased during the crisis, increased and
introduced new toll-fees. Particularly in Hungary, a new toll-fee system was
introduced in 2H13, which helped narrow the budget gap by some 0.5% of
GDP the second year after the introduction and increased fees for hauliers.
This is one of the reasons for the transit cost increase, but budgets are
healthier in the region. This most probably means less pressure and the
application of intelligent cost-effective route planning helps reduce costs. In
Hungary, there has been a strong, approx. 7% decrease, while on
international routes, some 6% kilometer cost increase is incorporated into
the model.
25
22.0 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
21.2 20.5
20.3
19.4 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8
20
16.8
15
10
0
2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e
Driver business until Driver cost represents the third largest cost element in the company’s own
autonomous tracks enter FTL business. Due to driver shortages and the minimal wage requirement
stream introduced in various western countries, driver cost at Waberer’s increased
by some 15%.
LINK’s good access to Ukraine Despite the generous increase, pressures are likely to emerge again from
could help Waberer’s time to time. While Hungary has had good access to the Romanian driver
market, helping the company with cheaper drivers in the past, the recently-
acquired LINK has good access to Ukraine. The connection in both cases
is the language. A significant number of Hungarian-speaking people live in
Romania, while the Polish language has similarities to Ukrainian.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
10,00
5,00
0,00
2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Valuation
Valuation summary
The target price of EUR 24.2 (HUF 7,345.5) per share was given by the
DCF valuation, in which a 4.8% EBIT margin and 0.7% perpetuity growth
were assumed, along with a WACC of 7.2%.
Checking the result of the DCF valuation, the proper figures, such as EPS,
EBIT, EBITDA and ROE were used for the comparison to peers. Eight
significant players were selected for the comparison.
In this comparison, it was found that the achieved DCF value is significantly
below the P/E, EV/EBITDA and ROE-P/B regression implied fair value
ranges, while being a bit above the EV/EBIT comparison suggested range.
DCF valuation
Main assumptions
The main assumptions related to the DCF valuation model are as follows:
Risk-free rate of 1.1%, based on the yield of the 5Y Hungarian
sovereign USD-denominated bond premium added to the 5Y
German benchmark yield, for the explicit period was used, as there
is no proper EUR-denominated sovereign bond for Hungary.
A yield of 2.8 for perpetuity calculated as the sum of (i) the 5Y
USD-denominated Hungarian bond premium over the 5Y US (1.1%
point); and (ii) the estimated German yield between 2027 and
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
WACC calculation
2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e TV
DCF valuation
(EUR mn) 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e TV
Free cash flow to the firm 32.3 41.4 45.3 44.9 46.3 37.7
Minorities 9.9
Net debt 237.5
Equity value 31.12.2017 403.2
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Multiples-based valuation
The EV/EBITDA multiples may not have the greatest validity, since they
might vary based on the companies’ asset intensities. EV/EBITDA multiples
suggest a valuation of above EUR 30 (HUF 9,000) per share.
EV/EBIT multiples provide the lowest range of the valuation within the
multiples used. The fair value comes out at between EUR 22.3 (HUF 6,787)
and EUR 24.1 (HUF 7,356). Of course, our target price is a twelve-month
target, meaning that the achieved EV/EBIT implied range should have
translated to the range of HUF 24-26 (HUF 7,300 – 7,900) by that time.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Regression ROE-P/B Valuation based on regression analyses of P/B and ROE multiples
MEDIAN 26.8x 21.8x 19.4x 8.7x 7.6x 6.6x 19.5x 15.0x 12.9x
Share P/B ROE Dividend yield
price 2017e 2018e 2019e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2017e 2018e 2019e
price 2017e 2018e 2019e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2017e 2018e 2019e
DSV A/S DK 5.53x 5.03x 4.71x 21.8% 24.5% 25.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7%
JB Hunt Transport Services Inc US 7.22x 6.18x 5.44x 29.3% 30.8% 31.2% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%
Swift Transportation Co US 4.81x 4.02x 2.99x 19.2% 25.1% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Knight Transportation Inc US 3.82x 3.65x 3.41x 10.3% 12.7% 14.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7%
Werner Enterprises Inc US 2.11x 1.96x 1.79x 8.4% 9.8% 10.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
Heartland Express Inc US 3.30x 3.07x 2.70x 10.8% 13.1% 11.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Stef SA FR 2.01x 1.82x 1.66x 15.2% 14.4% 13.7% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6%
MEDIAN 4.8 4.0 2.8 12.6% 13.7% 10.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5%
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Contacts
Group Research
Head of Group Research Research Slovakia
Friedrich Mostböck, CEFA +43 (0)5 0100 11902 Head: Maria Valachyova (Fixed income) +421 2 4862 4185
Major Markets & Credit Research Katarina Muchova (Fixed income) +421 2 4862 4762
Head: Gudrun Egger, CEFA +43 (0)5 0100 11909 Research Turkey
Ralf Burchert; CEFA (Agency Analyst) +43 (0)5 0100 16314 Ender Kaynar (Equity) +90 212 371 2530
Hans Engel (Senior Analyst Global Equities) +43 (0)5 0100 19835 Efe Kalkandelen (Equity) +90 212 371 2537
Christian Enger, CFA (Covered Bonds) +43 (0)5 0100 84052
Margarita Grushanina (Economist AT, Quant Analyst) +43 (0)5 0100 11957
Peter Kaufmann, CFA (Corporate Bonds) +43 (0)5 0100 11183
Stephan Lingnau (Global Equities) +43 (0)5 0100 16574 Group Institutional & Retail Sales
Carmen Riefler-Kowarsch (Covered Bonds) +43 (0)5 0100 19632 Institutional Equity Sales
Rainer Singer (Senior Economist Euro, US) +43 (0)5 0100 17331 Head: Brigitte Zeitlberger-Schmid +43 (0)5 0100 83123
Bernadett Povazsai-Römhild (Corporate Bonds) +43 (0)5 0100 17203 Cash Equity Sales
Elena Statelov, CIIA (Corporate Bonds) +43 (0)5 0100 19641 Werner Fuerst +43 (0)5 0100 83121
Gerald Walek, CFA (Economist Euro, CHF) +43 (0)5 0100 16360 Josef Kerekes +43 (0)5 0100 83125
Cormac Lyden +43 (0)5 0100 83120
Macro/Fixed Income Research CEE Institutional Equity Sales Croatia
Head CEE: Juraj Kotian (Macro/FI) +43 (0)5 0100 17357 Damir Eror (Equity) +385 72 37 28 36
Zoltan Arokszallasi, CFA (Fixed income) +43 (0)5 0100 18781 Zeljka Kajkut (Equity) +385 72 37 28 11
Katarzyna Rzentarzewska (Fixed income) +43 (0)5 0100 17356 Institutional Sales Czech Republic
CEE Equity Research Head: Michal Rizek +420 224 995 537
Head: Henning Eßkuchen +43 (0)5 0100 19634 Pavel Krabicka (Equity) +420 224 995 411
Daniel Lion, CIIA (Technology, Ind. Goods&Services) +43 (0)5 0100 17420 Jiri Feres (Equity) +420 224 995 554
Michael Marschallinger +43 (0)5 0100 17906 Institutional Sales Hungary
Christoph Schultes, MBA, CIIA (Real Estate) +43 (0)5 0100 11523 Head: Peter Csizmadia +36 1 237 8211
Vera Sutedja, CFA, MBA (Telecom, Steel) +43 (0)5 0100 11905 Levente Nándori (Equity) +361 235 5141
Thomas Unger, CFA (Banks, Insurance) +43 (0)5 0100 17344 Attila Preisz (Equity) +361 235 5140
Vladimira Urbankova, MBA (Pharma) +43 (0)5 0100 17343 Balázs Zánkay (Equity) +361 235 5156
Martina Valenta, MBA +43 (0)5 0100 11913 Institutional Equity Sales Poland
Editor Research CEE Jacek Jakub Langer (Head) +4822 330 6265
Brett Aarons +420 956 711 014 Mateusz Choromanski (Equity) +4822 538 6212
Research Croatia/Serbia Wojciech Wysocki (Equity) +4822 538 6219
Head: Mladen Dodig (Equity) +381 11 22 09178 Przemyslaw Nowosad (Equity) +4822 538 6266
Head: Alen Kovac (Fixed income) +385 72 37 1383 Grzegorz Stepien (Equity) +4822 330 6211
Anto Augustinovic (Equity) +385 72 37 2833 Institutional Equity Sales Romania
Milan Deskar-Skrbic (Fixed income) +385 72 37 1349 Liviu George Avram +40 3735 16569
Magdalena Dolenec (Equity) +385 72 37 1407 Group Markets Retail Sales
Ivana Rogic (Fixed income) +385 72 37 2419 Head: Christian Reiss +43 (0)5 0100 84012
Davor Spoljar, CFA (Equity) +385 72 37 2825 Equity a. Fund Retail Sales
Research Czech Republic Head: Kurt Gerhold +43 (0)5 0100 84232
Head: David Navratil (Fixed income) +420 956 765 439 Fixed Income a. Certificate Sales
Head: Petr Bartek (Equity) +420 956 765 227 Head: Uwe Kolar +43 (0)5 0100 83214
Vit Machacek (Fixed income) +420 956 765 456 Markets Retail a.Sparkassen Sales AT
Jiri Polansky (Fixed income) +420 956 765 192 Head: Markus Kaller +43 (0)5 0100 84239
Roman Sedmera (Fixed income) +420 956 765 391 Markets Corporate Sales AT
Michal Skorepa (Fixed income) +420 956 765 172 Head: Christian Skopek +43 (0)5 0100 84146
Pavel Smolik (Equity) +420 956 765 434 Fixed Income Institutional Desk
Jan Sumbera (Equity) +420 956 765 218 Head G7: Thomas Almen +43 (0)5 0100 84323
Research Hungary Institutional Sales CEE a. International
Head: József Miró (Equity) +361 235 5131 Jaromir Malak +43 (0)5 0100 84254
Gergely Ürmössy (Fixed income) +361 373 2830 Antun Buric +43 (0)5 0100 11387
András Nagy (Equity) +361 235 5132 Ciprian Mitu +43 (0)5 0100 84254
Orsolya Nyeste (Fixed income) +361 268 4428 Central Bank and International Sales
Tamás Pletser, CFA (Oil&Gas) +361 235 5135 Head: Margit Hraschek +43 (0)5 0100 84117
Research Poland Bernd Thaler +43 (0)5 0100 84119
Head: Tomasz Duda (Equity) +48 22 330 6253 Christian Kössler +43 (0)5 0100 84116
Marek Czachor (Equity) +48 22 330 6254
Magdalena Komaracka, CFA (Equity) +48 22 330 6256
Mateusz Krupa (Equity) +48 22 330 6251
Karol Brodziński (Equity) +48 22 330 6252
Research Romania
Head: Horia Braun-Erdei +40 3735 10424
Mihai Caruntu (Equity) +40 3735 10427
Dumitru Dulgheru (Fixed income) +40 3735 10433
Eugen Sinca (Fixed income) +40 3735 10435
Dorina Ilasco (Fixed Income) +40 3735 10436
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Disclaimer
This investment research (the "Document") has been prepared by Erste Group Bank AG or any of its consolidated subsidiaries
(together with consolidated subsidiaries "Erste Group") independently and objectively for the purpose of providing additional
economical information about the analyzed company or companies. The Document is based on reasonable knowledge of Erste
Group's analyst in charge of producing the Document as of the date thereof and may be amended from time to time without
further notice. It only serves for the purpose of providing non-binding information and does not constitute investment advice or
investment recommendations. This Document does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer,
recommendation or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any securities, and neither this Document nor anything contained
herein shall form the basis of or be relied on in connection with or act as an inducement to enter into any contract or inclusion of
a security or financial product in a trading strategy. All information, analysis and conclusions provided herein are of general
nature. This Document does not purport to provide a comprehensive overview about any investment, the potential risks and
results nor does this Document take into account any individual needs of an investor (the "Investor") in relation to proceeds, tax
aspects, risk awareness and appropriateness of the security or financial product. Therefore, this Document does not replace
any investor- and investment-related evaluation nor any comprehensive risk disclosure; any security or financial product has a
different risk level. Performance charts and example calculations do not provide any indication for future performance of the
security or the financial product. Information about past performance does not necessarily guarantee a positive development in
the future and investments in securities or financial products can be of risk and speculative nature. The weaker the Company's
credit-worthiness is, the higher the risk of an investment will be. Not every investment is suitable for every investor. Therefore,
Investors shall consult their advisors (in particular legal and tax advisors) prior to taking any investment decision to ensure that –
irrespective of information provided herein – the intended purchase of the security or financial product is appropriate for the
Investor's needs and intention, that the Investor has understood all risks and that, after due examination, the Investor has
concluded to make the investment and is in a position to bear the economical outcome of such investment. Investors are
advised to mind the client information pursuant to the Austrian Securities Supervision Act 2007. Financial analysis is produced
by Erste Group's division for financial analysis within the framework provided by applicable laws. The opinions featured in the
equity and credit research reports may vary. Investors in equities may pursue different interests compared to those of investors
on the credit side, related to the same issuer. The analyst has no authority whatsoever to make any representation or warranty
on behalf of the analyzed Company, Erste Group, or any other person. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that
the facts stated herein are accurate and that the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are fair and reasonable,
Erste Group (including its representatives and employees) neither expressly nor tacitly makes any guarantee as to or assumes
any liability for the up-to-dateness, completeness and correctness of the content of this Document. Neither a company of Erste
Group nor any of its respective managing directors, supervisory board members, executive board members, directors, officers
or other employees shall be in any way liable for any costs, losses or damages (including subsequent damages, indirect
damages and loss of profit) howsoever arising from the use of or reliance on this Document. Erste Group, associated
companies as well as representatives and employees may, to the extent permitted by law, have a position in the securities of (or
options, warrants or rights with respect to, or interest in the financial instruments or other securities of) the Company. Further,
Erste Group, associated companies as well as representatives and employees may offer investment services to the Company or
may take over management function in the Company. This Document has been produced in line with Austrian law and for the
territory of Austria. Forwarding this Document as well as marketing of financial products described herein are restricted or
interdicted in certain jurisdictions. This, in particular, applies to the United States, Canada, Switzerland, Australia, Korea and
Japan. In particular, neither this Document nor any copy hereof may be taken or transmitted or distributed, directly or indirectly,
into the United States or to US Persons (as defined in the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended) unless applicable laws of
the United States or certain federal states of the United States provide for applicable exemptions. Any failure to comply with
these restrictions may constitute a violation of the laws of any such other jurisdiction. Persons receiving possession of this
Document are obliged to inform themselves about any such restrictions and to adhere to them. By accepting this Document, the
recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations and to adhere to applicable regulations. Further information may be
provided by Erste Group upon request. This Document and information, analysis, comments and conclusions provided herein
are copyrighted material. Erste Group reserves the right to amend any opinion and information provided herein at any
time and without prior notice. Erste Group further reserves the right not to update any information provided herein or
to cease updates at all. All information provided in this Document is non-binding. Misprints and printing errors reserved.
If one of the clauses provided for in this disclaimer is found to be illicit, inapplicable or not enforceable, the clause has to be
treated separately from other clauses provided for in this disclaimer to the largest extent possible. In any case, the illicit,
inapplicable or not enforceable clause shall not affect the licitness, applicability or enforceability of any other clauses.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Important Disclosures
THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE TAKEN, TRANSMITTED OR DISTRIBUTED INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA,
SWITZERLAND, AUSTRALIA, KOREA OR JAPAN OR TO ANY U.S. PERSON OR TO ANY INDIVIDUAL OUTSIDE CANADA,
AUSTRALIA, SWITZERLAND, KOREA OR JAPAN WHO IS A RESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, CANADA,
SWITZERLAND, AUSTRALIA, KOREA OR JAPAN OR TO THE PRESS IN THESE COUNTRIES.
General disclosures
All recommendations given by Erste Group Research are independent, objective and are based on the latest company, industry and other general
information publicly available which Erste Group Research considers being reliable; however, we do not represent or assume any liability for the
completeness of accuracy of such information or our recommendation. The best possible care and integrity is used to avoid errors and/or misstatements.
No influence on the rating and/or target price is being exerted by either the covered company or other internal departments of Erste Group. Each research
drawn up by an analyst is reviewed by a senior research executive or agreed with a senior analyst/deputy (4-eyes-principle). Erste Group has
implemented extensive Compliance Rules on personal account dealings of analysts (please see “Conflicts of Interest”). Analysts are not allowed to
involve themselves in any paid activities with the covered companies except as disclosed otherwise. No part of their compensation was, is, or will be
directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views expressed by them contained in this document. Erste Group may engage in
transactions with financial instruments, on a proprietary basis or otherwise, in a manner inconsistent with the view taken in this research report. In
addition, others within Erste Group, including strategists and sales staff, may take a view that is inconsistent with that taken in this research report.
Disclosure Checklist
Conflicts of interest
Disclosures of potential conflicts of interest relating to Erste Group Bank AG, its affiliates or branches and its relevant representatives and employees with
respect to the issuers, financial instruments and/or securities forming the subject of this document are updated daily.
For an overview of conflicts of interests for all analysed companies by Erste Group in Equity Research please follow following link:
https://produkte.erstegroup.com/Retail/en/ResearchCenter/Overview/Disclaimer/index.phtml.
Erste Group Bank AG ensures with internal policies that conflicts of interest are managed in a fair manner. The policy „Managing Conflict of Interest in
Connection with Investment Research“ are provided under the following link:
https://produkte.erstegroup.com/Retail/en/ResearchCenter/Overview/Disclaimer/index.phtml.
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Erste Group Research – Company Report
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
22 August 2017
Our target prices are established by determining the fair value of stocks, taking into account additional fundamental factors and news of relevance for the
stock price (such as M&A activities, major forthcoming share deals, positive/negative share/sector sentiment, news) and refer to 12 months from now. All
recommendations are to be understood relative to our current fundamental valuation of the stock. The recommendation does not indicate any relative
performance of the stock vs. a regional or sector benchmark.
A history of all recommendations within the last 12 months is provided under the following link:
https://produkte.erstegroup.com/Retail/en/ResearchCenter/Overview/Disclaimer/index.phtml.
Unless otherwise stated in the text of the financial analysis/investment research, target prices in the publication are based on a discounted cash flow valuation
and/or comparison of valuation ratios with companies seen by the analyst as comparable or a combination of the two methods. The result of this fundamental
valuation is adjusted to reflect the analyst's views on the likely course of investor sentiment. Whichever valuation method is used there is a significant risk that the
target price will not be achieved within the expected timeframe. Risk factors include unforeseen changes in competitive pressures or in the level of demand for the
company’s products. Such demand variations may result from changes in technology, in the overall level of economic activity or, in some cases, from changes in
social values. Valuations may also be affected by changes in taxation, in exchange rates, in the capital market sentiment and in regulatory provisions. Investment
in overseas markets and instruments such as ADRs can result in increased risk from factors such as exchange rates, exchange controls, taxation, political,
economic and social conditions.
All market prices within this publication are closing prices of the previous trading day (unless otherwise mentioned within the publication).
Detailed information about the valuation and methodology of investment research by the Erste Group Bank AG is provided under the following link:
https://produkte.erstegroup.com/Retail/en/ResearchCenter/Overview/Disclaimer/index.phtml.
Periodical publications are identified by their respective product name and indicate update frequency as such (eg. Quarterly). Recommendations mentioned within
these publications are updated in an according frequency, unless otherwise mentioned (e.g. a 12M TP is not updated on a monthly base, even when mentioned in
summarizing monthly/quarterly product).
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
Source:
Regression
Peer
Bloomberg
Bloomberg,
ROE-P/B
group
prices as of
2017e
overview
August 15,
2017 Reg
Sourc Group Research – Company Report
ressionErste
e: Bloomberg
Waberer’s International | Logistics & Ports | Hungary
ROE-P/B
2018e 22 August 2017
Reg
ressionSourc
Links
e: Bloomberg
ROE-P/B
2019e Erste Group may provide hyperlinks to websites of entities mentioned in this document, however the inclusion of a link does not imply that Erste
Group endorses, recommends or approves any material on the linked page or accessible from it. Erste Group does not accept responsibility
whatsoever for any such material, including in particular the completeness and accuracy, nor for any consequences of its use.
Austria: Erste Group Bank AG is registered in the Commercial Register at Commercial Court Vienna under the number FN 33209m. Erste
Group Bank AG is authorized and regulated by the European Central Bank (ECB) (Sonnemannstraße 22, D-60314 Frankfurt am Main,
Germany) and by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (Otto-Wagner Platz 5, A-1090, Vienna, Austria).
Germany: Erste Group Bank AG is authorised for the conduct of investment business in Germany by the Austrian Financial Market Authority
(FMA) and subject to limited regulation by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin).
United Kingdom: Erste Group Bank AG is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority and
the Prudential Regulation Authority. This document is directed exclusively to eligible counterparties and professional clients. It is not directed to
retail clients. No persons other than an eligible counterparty or a professional client should read or rely on any information in this document.
Erste Group Bank AG does not deal for or advise or otherwise offer any investment services to retail clients.
Czech Republic: Česká spořitelna, a.s. is regulated for the conduct of investment activities in Czech Republic by the Czech National Bank
(CNB).
Croatia: Erste Bank Croatia is regulated for the conduct of investment activities in Croatia by the Croatian Financial Services Supervisory
Agency (HANFA).
Hungary: Erste Bank Hungary ZRT. and Erste Investment Hungary Ltd. are regulated for the conduct of investment activities in Hungary by the
Hungarian Financial Supervisory Authority (PSZAF).
Serbia: Erste Group Bank AG is regulated for the conduct of investment activities in Serbia by the Securities Commission of the Republic of
Serbia (SCRS).
Romania: Banka Comerciala Romana is regulated for the conduct of investment activities in Romania by the Romanian National Securities
Commission (CNVM).
Poland: Erste Securities Polska S.A. is regulated for the conduct of investment activities in Poland by the Polish Financial Supervision Authority
(PFSA).
Slovakia: Slovenská sporiteľňa, a.s. is regulated for the conduct of investment activities in Slovakia by the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS).
Turkey: Tarkus Advisory, a non-regulated Turkish advisory company, is the exclusive equity research partner of Erste Group Bank AG, and is
acting on behalf of Erste Group Bank AG to cover Turkish issuers. Content, ratings and target prices are under the sole responsibility of Erste
Group Bank AG.
Switzerland: This research report does not constitute a prospectus or similar communication in connection with an offering or listing of
securities as defined in Articles 652a, 752 and 1156 of the Swiss Code of Obligation and the listing rules of the SWX Swiss Exchange.
Hong Kong: This document may only be received in Hong Kong by ‘professional investors’ within the meaning of Schedule 1 of the Securities
and Futures Ordinance (Cap.571) of Hong Kong and any rules made there under.
Published by:
For the exclusive use of Research DISTRIBUTION (Auerbach Grayson and Company, LLC.)
R E SE AR CH RE PO RT DIS TRI BUT ED BY
The attached research report and the
excerpts from the research report found on
the first page were written entirely by a broker
partner of Auerbach Grayson, and not by
Auerbach Grayson
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE
The attached research report was prepared by the correspondent broker named above, and by
the correspondent broker’s analysts named in the attached report and is dated the date set forth
above. This report was not prepared by Auerbach Grayson & Company.
The correspondent broker and its research analysts are not associated persons of Auerbach
Grayson & Company, nor are they affiliated with Auerbach Grayson & Company. The
correspondent broker named above and its research analysts are not subject to the SEC rules on
research analysts. They are not members of, or registered with, the Financial Industry Regulatory
Authority (FINRA). They are not subject to FINRA’s rules on Debt Research Analysts and Debt
Research Reports, Equity Research Analysts and Equity Research Reports, and the FINRA rules
on communications and the attendant restrictions and disclosures required by those rules.
[If the report is to be distributed to more than Major U S institutional Investors. Auerbach
Grayson & Company accepts responsibility for the contents of this report as provided for
in SEC releases and SEC staff no-action letters.]
All persons receiving the attached report and wishing to buy or sell any of the securities
discussed in the attached research report should do so through a representative of Auerbach
Grayson & Company. Auerbach Grayson & Company will share in the commissions charged for
executing such an order. Auerbach Grayson & Company and its affiliates do not own one per
cent (1%) or more of any class of equity or debt securities of the issuers discussed in the
attached report, Auerbach Grayson & Company and its affiliates have not received any
investment banking compensation from any of the issuers discussed in the attached report in the
past twelve months, and do not intend to seek or expect to receive investment banking
compensation from any of the issuers discussed in the attached report in the next three (3)
months. Auerbach Grayson & Company has not acted as manager or co-manager of any public
offering of securities issued by any of the companies discussed in the attached research report in
the past three (3) years. Neither Auerbach Grayson & Company nor any of its officers own
options, rights, or warrants to purchase any of the securities of the issuers discussed in the
attached research report, and Auerbach Grayson & Company and its associated persons do not
stand ready to buy from or sell to any persons, as principal, any of the securities discussed in the
attached research report.
Executive
David S. Grayson Chief Executive Officer 1.212.453.3553 david@agco.com
Garth Ballantyne Managing Director, Global Trading 1.212.557.4444 gballantyne@agco.com
Frank Muller Managing Director, Global Operations 1.212.453.3518 fmuller@agco.com
Sales
Nikhil Bhatnagar Asian Sales 1.212.453.3573 nbhatnagar@agco.com
Hideaki Fukuchi Asian Sales 1.212.453.3541 hfukuchi@agco.com
Abhijit Kukreja Asian Sales 1.212.453.3561 akukreja@agco.com
Zoran Milojevic Director CEEMEA & LATAM Sales 1.212.453.3589 zmilojevic@agco.com
Simon Mandel CEEMEA & LATAM Sales 1.212.453.3571 smandel@agco.com
Michael Daoud CEEMEA & LATAM Sales 1.212.453.3586 mdaoud@agco.com
Stephan Lueck Western Europe Sales 1.212.453.3538 slueck@agco.com
Dirk Schnitker Western Europe Sales 1.212.453.3531 dschnitker@agco.com
Trading
Geoffrey Gimber US & LATAM Trading 1.212.557.4444 ggimber@agco.com
John Geron Asian Trading 1.212.557.4444 jgeron@agco.com
Mike LoPiano Asian Trading 1.212.557.4444 mikelopiano@agco.com
Sam Oh Asian Trading 1.212.557.4444 soh@agco.com
Steven Pollicino Emerging Market Trading 1.212.557.4444 spollicino@agco.com
John Krase Emerging Market Trading 1.212.557.4444 jkrase@agco.com
Yin You Emerging Market Trading 1.212.557.4444 yyou@agco.com
John Hurkala Program Trading 1.212.557.4444 jhurkala@agco.com
Mathew McConnell Global Capital Markets 1.212.557.4444 mmcconnell@agco.com
Trading Desk Hours (New York Time) – Sunday 4:00 pm to Friday 5:00 pm (24 Hours)
*After trading hours, please call 1.212.557.4444 and you will automatically be connected to a trader.
Research
Greg Sinnott Research Coordinator 1.212.453.3549 gsinnott@agco.com
Information Services
Ismael Sadek Information Technology 1.212.453.3512 isadek@agco.com