Alpha Strategist PPT-PDF-Dec 2020 PDF

αLPHA STRATEGIST
“Winter Harvest”
December 2020 | Issue No. 96

2QFY21 earnings season has seen a bumper harvest of highest
ever aggregate PAT for Nifty-50 companies
Corporate India’s deleveraging of the balance sheet over the last

few years, much healthier financial system and government’s
thrust on make in India with production linked incentives are
likely to aid in better earnings recovery going forward
Despite Nifty-50 index levels at the all-time high, healthier

earnings growth going forward is likely to provide cushion for
valuations
Nifty-50 PAT At All Time High In 2QFY21;
BFSI % Contribution To Nifty Increases YoY
 Nifty-50 PAT in 2QFY21 were at all-time highs at INR1042b

 BFSI share as a percentage of Nifty-50 profits increased YoY, to 25% in Sep’20 from lows of 16% to in Sep’16.
Source: MOFSL 3
2QFY21 Earnings: Nifty EBITDA/PAT Above Expectations
 The Nifty Universe’s 2QFY21 EBITDA/PAT growth was above expectations.

 31 of 50 Nifty companies reported a beat on PAT estimates
Nifty sales decline 7% YoY in line with estimates Nifty EBITDA grows 8% YoY v/s est. flattish performance
Nifty PAT grows 17% YoY v/s estimate (est.) of 5% decline Nifty EBITDA margin (excl. Fin) expands 310 bps to 19.8% YoY
Source: MOFSL; Estimates considered above are taken from MOFSL. 4

Sector Wise Estimate Revision From Preview
 Broad-based earnings revision in MOFSL Universe; only two sectors see a >5% earnings cut in FY21E/FY22E
estimates
Source: MOFSL 5
Nifty PAT Expectations – FY20-22
 Nifty FY20–22E free-float PAT expected to post 23% CAGR
Source: MOFSL 6
Nifty PAT Expectations – FY20-22 Contd…
Source: MOFSL 7
Stress Debt Came Off Sharply In 2QFY21 Driven By Earnings
Growth
Share of debt of companies with IC < 1 as come down to 35%
% of sample debt with companies with IC<1 % not covering interest in at least 4 quarters
Corporate stress in 2Q21 came
off sharply with share of debt
with companies having IC<1
down sharply to 35% levels
last seen in Jun-14, driven by
the exit of several companies
from the metal sector and
power sector
Reduction vs pre-COVID led by telecom & metals EBITDA grows 8% YoY and 54% QoQ, aggregate IC back to 2.5x
3.5%
4.2%
Note: IC means Interest Coverage Source: Prowess, Company data, Credit Suisse estimates; Sample Size is of 197 companies 8
Nifty 50 - Earnings Recovery
Nifty-50 EPS (INR) FY20-22E: 21% CAGR

The Cost of Reforms!
FY03-08: 25% CAGR FY08-14: 6.3% CAGR FY14-20: 3.0% CAGR 677
FY97-03: 3.5% CAGR
483 465 497

FY97-20: 8.3% CAGR 454
406 415 397 426
348 369
315
281
236 251 247
169 184
131
75 84 71 75 73 78 92
FY04
FY09
FY17
FY97
FY98
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21E
FY22E
Corporate profits to GDP (%)
Low earnings growth, 7.3 7.8
followed by higher
6.3 6.5
6.3 Average of 5% There have been a string of reforms
earnings growth
5.4 5.5
4.8
in the last few years including GST,
4.7
4.3 4.3
3.7 3.6
RERA, IBC, etc. It has been observed
3.2 3.2 3.4
2.3 2.3
3.0 2.9 3.1 that previous periods of reforms have
2.1 2.2
1.7 1.9 coincided with phases of low
earnings growth, followed by periods
of much higher earnings growth
FY02
FY96
FY97
FY98
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20E
Source: MOFSL, India Charts, Data as on 30th Nov, 2020 9

1. Global & Domestic Macro
2. Fixed Income
3. Equity
4. Gold
5. Delphi
6. Annexure
10
Global GDP - Trajectory
Morgan Stanley and Consensus Real

GDP growth forecast (% YoY)
G4 central banks’ Balance Sheet
Source: Morgan Stanley Research; Haver Analytics national source, IMF, Morgan Stanley Research Forecasts Index 11
Asia Ex Japan Transitioning Into ‘Goldilocks Phase’?
- Led By N Asia, Rest Axj Catching Up
While 2020 saw growth led by North Asia (China, Taiwan and Korea), rest of AxJ should catch up
soon, especially with upcoming vaccines to benefit ones that have trailed in COVID containment -
India, Indonesia and Philippines
AXJ Real GDP Growth 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E

Forecast (%YoY) New Old Cons. New Old Cons. New Cons.
China 6.1 2.3 2.3 2.0 9.0 8.9 7.9 5.4 5.4
Hong Kong -1.2 -6.0 -8.5 -6.2 5.0 5.5 4.4 3.0 2.9
India* 4.9 -5.7 -5.0 -8.9 9.8 9.5 8.3 6.0 5.6
Indonesia 5.0 -1.7 -1.5 -2.0 6.2 5.6 4.7 5.5 5.2
Korea 2.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 4.2 4.0 3.3 2.6 2.9
Malaysia 4.3 -5.3 -6.2 -6.4 8.2 8.9 6.6 4.8 5.4
Philippines 6.0 -8.5 -6.4 -8.0 13.5 13.1 7.8 6.0 6.6
Singapore 0.7 -5.0 -5.5 -6.2 7.4 7.4 5.5 2.9 3.8
Taiwan 2.7 2.0 0.8 1.3 3.8 3.4 3.5 2.8 2.7
Thailand 2.4 -6.4 -6.7 -7.7 5.5 5.5 3.9 3.2 5.1
AXJ 5.1 -0.4 -0.5 -1.5 8.5 8.3 7.2 5.2 5.2
AXJ ex-China 4.1 -4.1 -4.1 -5.8 7.8 7.6 6.3 5.0 5.0
AXJ ex-China, India 3.4 -2.9 -3.0 -3.4 6.2 6.0 4.6 4.1 4.4
ASEAN 4.2 -4.2 -4.0 -4.7 7.4 7.2 5.3 4.9 5.3
Note: A Goldilocks economy is an economy that is not too hot or cold, in other words sustains moderate economic growth, and that has
low inflation, which allows a market-friendly monetary policy.
Source: ABSLAMC, Morgan Stanley Research Estimates, CEIC. Note: *India 2022 consensus refer to the FY23 number
AXJ Refers to Asia ex Japan
Index 12
Emerging Markets Foreign Inflows
Source: Kotak MF, Axis Capital Index 13

Real GDP Declined 7.5% YoY In 2QFY21, Sequentially Better
Than 1QFY21
One of the major contributors of the GDP contraction is the fall in consumption, both on a personal level as well
as government level, which has shown little recovery since last quarter
Central Government Spending Has Been A Drag On GDP India-Real GDP Components in Q2FY21 relative to Pre-Crisis
Growth In FY21 level in %
Source: CSO, Bloomberg Index 14

High Frequency Indicators - India
Good uptick in most rural consumption indicators and many are Uptick in urban consumption indicators but most are below
above pre-Covid levels pre-Covid levels
Investment indicators are inching up Other general activity indicators also show healthy rebound
Source: Citi, ABSLAMC Index 15

Govt. Expenditure Expected to pick up in 2HFY21
Government Expenditures (%YoY) Government Tax Revenues (%YoY)

35 30.5 25 20.7
20 16.7
30 12.8
15 10.8
25 10 6
4.4 2.9
20 16 5
13.2 0
15 10.5 -5
10 6.7 7.6 8.2 8.1
-10
5 -15
-20
0 -25
-5 -0.6 -30 -24.5
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21BE YTD 2H FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21BE YTD
FY21 FY21* FY21
*: 2HFY21 data is the growth rate if budget expenditure targets are to be met
 Government fiscal accounts shows decline in expenditure in 1H and moreover total expenditure is
much lower compared to budgeted
 If government manages to meet the budgetary targets, there would be a strong 30% y-y growth in
expenditure in 2H, which augurs well for growth in 2H.
Source: CEIC, ABSLAMC Research Index 16

Improving GST Collections And E-way Bill Generation
Govt. has collected 48% of its FY21BE till Nov’20 GST collections grew 1.4% YoY in Nov’20 to INR 1.05tn
Daily E-way bill generation still strong in Nov’20 at 1.9m units

“Economists feel that though the
festive season GST collection has
been encouraging, data
regarding demand post then has
been weak and they remain
cautious to see whether the trend
of higher GST collection continues
”
Source: MOFSL Index 17
INR - Currency Stability & Foreign Reserves
Rupee movement range bound amidst high volatility across markets. INR has depreciated by 4% in CY20.
80.0 INR/USD Currency

76.8
75.0 74.2 74.2
70.0 68.7
68.8 68.8
65.0
63.5
60.0
58.5
55.0
53.8
50.0
Apr-13 Nov-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 Oct-15 May-16 Jan-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Dec-18 Jul-19 Mar-20 Nov-20
FX Reserves At Record High Of Usd575b; Record Annual Inflow. In CY20, so far, USD118b of reserve accretion has already happened.
Source: Bloomberg and Trading Economics, Data Updated as on 30th Nov’20 Index 18
Macro Snapshot
Source: ICICI Prudential AMC, CRISIL Research, RBI, CCIL India, CMIE, Data as on 30-Nov-2020 unless stated otherwise; FY refers to fiscal year ends Apr
- Mar; *Inflation (CPI) is for the month of Oct-20, Currency, Forex Reserves as on
Nov 20, 2020, Current Account Deficit data is as of Q1FY21 (June 2020), Fiscal Deficit data is as of FY20, GDP data is as of Q2FY21
Index 19
Structural Reforms To Accelerate India’s Growth
Implementation of GST
Reduction in FDI Limit
Restriction Across Many Sectors The Goods and Services Tax
Like construction, Multi brand
Retail, Railways, E-Commerce
07 01 went into effect nationwide on
July 1, creating India's first-
etc ever national market and
replacing most state and
06 federal taxes
Production linked 02 IBC, 2016

Incentives
Made it Quicker and Easier
GOI is working on offering
production linked incentives
05 for companies to go through
bankruptcy
for up to five sectors to boost
domestic manufacturing
03
04
RERA,2016
Essential Commodities Act Aims at protecting the
Corporate Tax Cut
GOI approved amendments to the Act home Purchasers from
Tax rate for domestic companies lowered the malpractices of
and that will allow farmers to sell their
to 22% (vs. 30% earlier) taking down the unfair builders and also
crop to anyone, helping Indian
effective corporate tax rate to 25% (vs. 35% boosts the real estate
farmers and transforming the
earlier) investment
agriculture sector.
One of the lowest tax rates in world for
manufacturing companies set up post Oct
1, 2019
Index 20
2. Fixed Income
3. Equity
4. Gold
5. Delphi
6. Annexure
21
CPI Remained Elevated; Expected To Moderate by Q1FY22
CPI inflation remains elevated….. ...due to higher food inflation

12.0 CPI (% YoY) Contribution to inflation (YoY) (%)
10.0 Miscellaneous 6.88
8.0 7.61 Fuel & Light 2.28
Housing 3.27
6.0
Cloting & Footwear 3.17
4.0
Pan,Tobacco & Intoxicants 10.65
2.0
Food & beverages 10.16
0.0
Apr-14
Oct-17
Jan-19
Oct-20
Mar-17
Mar-20
Jan-16
Aug-16
Aug-19
Jul-12
Jun-15
Feb-13
Sep-13
May-18
Nov-14
Inflation Expectations Of Professional Forecasters
 Consumer price index accelerated to 7.34% in

September remaining above the upper level of the
RBI tolerance band of 4%±2%
 For the first time since Mar’20, the RBI shared its
macroeconomic forecasts.
 The MPC expects inflation to remain above
the 4% target by 1QFY22.
 CPI inflation is projected to ease to 4.3% by
1QFY22 with balanced risks.
Source: MOSPI CPI Press Release Index 22

Pro Active Intervention by RBI to address the challenges
115 Bps Repo Rate Reduction CYTD; Maintained Dovish Guidance; Regulatory & Macro Prudent Measures Announced
Repo Rate Reverse Repo Rate 10 Yr G-Sec
7.00 6.90 In latest MPC Meeting :
6.51 6.41 6.49
6.50
6.17 6.12 6.40
6.00
5.89
5.99
5.88
 Left Policy Rates
5.50 5.15 6.14 5.77 5.83 5.84
5.90 unchanged
5.00 22 May 20
4.50 4.9
4.40
4.00
Repo : 40 bps cut  Maintained
4.00
4 Reverse Repo :40 bps cut 5.40 Accommodative Stance’
4.00 27 Mar 20 3.75
3.50 Repo : 75 bps cut
Reverse Repo :90 bps cut
3.35 3.35
4.90  Space for monetary easing
17 April 20
3.00
Reverse Repo :25 bps cut exists as long as it
2.50 4.40 provides marginal utility
to the economy
 Slew of measures
System Liquidity is back to levels of Apr’20 at INR 5.4 Trn. announced to ease
7,00,000 Core System Liquidity financial conditions &
6,00,000 improve credit flow
OMO Purchase,
5,00,000 Operation Twist, LTRO, TLTRO  To keep a lid on long term
4,00,000 RBI Forex Interventions, yields, RBI resorts to
Refinancing tools
OMOs in Gilt/SDL
Rs. Crs
3,00,000
FII Outflows
2,00,000 RBI Forex Interventions
1,00,000 RBI remained in pro-active
- liquidity management mode
(1,00,000) through both conventional
(2,00,000) and unconventional methods
Jul-19
Jul-20
Dec-18
Dec-18
Dec-19
Feb-20
Nov-18
Apr-19
Oct-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Apr-20
Oct-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
May-19
May-20
Jan-19
Jan-20
Mar-19
Mar-19
Aug-19
Mar-20
Aug-20
Source: Bloomberg, MOPWM Research, Data till 30th Nov 2020 Index 23
Effect On Yield Curve :
…..Term & Credit Spread Becomes Attractive
Onset of COVID (20-Mar) Sep’20 Month Yield Last Month Yield (Oct’20) Current Yield (Nov’20)
Effect on G-Sec Yield Curve (Eased by 35 – 200 bps) Effect on AAA Yield Curve (Eased by 105 – 250 bps)
7.58
6.34 6.26 7.20
6.01
5.75 5.88 6.74 6.87 6.79
5.54 5.39 5.91 6.37 6.61
5.34
5.17 6.00 6.51
4.93 5.08 5.63
4.40 5.31
4.43 5.55
4.19 4.35 4.85
3.71 4.72
3.92 4.43 4.41 4.71
3.47 3.93
3.33 4.20
3.89
1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y
Pre Covid (20 Mar) 5.34 5.54 5.75 6.34 6.26 Pre Covid (20 Mar) 6.37 6.74 6.87 7.20 7.58
Yields on 30th Sep 3.71 4.43 4.93 5.39 6.01 Yields on 30th Sep 4.43 4.85 5.31 6.00 6.79
Yields on 31st Oct 3.47 4.19 4.40 5.17 5.88 Yields on 31st Oct 3.93 4.41 4.72 5.63 6.61
Yields on 30th Nov 3.33 3.92 4.35 5.08 5.91 Yields on 30th Nov 3.89 4.20 4.71 5.55 6.51
Effect on AA Yield Curve (Eased by 95 – 210 bps) Effect on A Yield Curve (Eased by 90 – 170 bps)
8.25 9.74
7.75 7.57 9.22
7.53 9.01
7.30 7.40 8.71 8.86
6.89 6.65 7.31 8.34 8.34 8.43 8.78
6.40 8.19
6.09 7.89 8.12
5.72 6.28 7.54
5.62 7.30
5.32 5.28 5.56 6.97 7.06 7.39
4.79 5.09 6.70 6.83
4.77 6.62
1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y
Pre Covid (20 Mar) 6.89 7.30 7.53 7.75 8.25 Pre Covid (20 Mar) 8.34 8.34 8.71 9.22 9.74
Yields on 30th Sep 5.32 5.72 6.09 6.65 7.57 Yields on 30th Sep 6.97 7.30 7.89 8.43 9.01
Yields on 31st Oct 4.79 5.28 5.62 6.40 7.40 Yields on 31st Oct 6.70 7.06 7.54 8.19 8.86
Yields on 30th Nov 4.77 5.09 5.56 6.28 7.31 Yields on 30th Nov 6.62 6.83 7.39 8.12 8.78
Source: Bloomberg, MOPWM Research, Data till 30th Nov 2020
Index 24
Negative Real Rates, First Time Since 2014 In G-sec & AAA
The combination of declining rates amidst aggressive RBI easing and rising inflationary pressure has
brought both deposit and lending rates to multi year lows.
Real Rates (1-Yr AAA less CPI Inflation) (%)

8.00
6.00 Positive Real Rates
4.00
2.00
0.00
-2.00
-4.00
-6.00 Negative Real Rates
Real Rates (1-Yr G-Sec less CPI Inflation) (%)

6.00
4.00 Positive Real Rates
2.00
0.00
-2.00
-4.00
-6.00 Negative Real Rates
Excess liquidity has driven the yields on short term Govt. borrowing to drop to 3.1-3.5% driving real
rates into the –ve zone
Source: Bloomberg; Data as of 30th Nov’20; ABSLAMC Index 25
Core Allocation: Biased Towards High Quality Accrual Strategies
8.78
8.12
7.39
 Yield curve remains steep with
7.31
6.62 6.83
6.51
sweet spot around 2-5 yrs maturity
6.28
CURRENT YIELD CURVE 5.91
5.56 5.55  Yields at shorter end of the curve
(30TH NOVEMBER 20) 5.09 4.71 5.08
4.77
4.20
4.00
4.35
4.00 4.00 4.00
may remain subdued due to
3.89
4.00 3.92
3.33 surplus liquidity
1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y
Repo Rate 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00  Yields at longer end of the curve
G-Sec 3.33 3.92 4.35 5.08 5.91 may remain volatile due to
AAA 3.89 4.20 4.71 5.55 6.51 potential fiscal expansion, supply
AA 4.77 5.09 5.56 6.28 7.31 issues, inflation concerns & global
A 6.62 6.83 7.39 8.12 8.78 factors
 Core Allocation :
 Risk reward favors high quality short to medium term accrual strategies with duration between 2-4 years
with minimum investment horizon of 3 years
 To enhance the overall portfolio yield, investors with medium to high risk profile can consider 15 – 20%
allocation of the overall fixed income portfolio to select MLDs, NCDS and credit oriented strategies.
 For Liquidity management/Temporary Parking :
 Allocation of ~10% - 20% of the fixed income portfolio can be made in Arbitrage (minimum 6
months)/UST (minimum 3 months)/Liquid (less than 3 months) strategies which can be deployed in a
staggered manner when opportunities arise.
Source: Bloomberg, MOPWM Research, Data till 30th Nov, 2020 26

2. Fixed Income
3. Equity
4. Gold
5. Delphi
6. Annexure
27
Global Equity Market Performance (YTD)
Global equity markets have recovered sharply over the last few months
Nifty 50 Shanghai Composite (SSEC) S&P 500 Nasdaq 100 DAX Nikkei 225
140
136
130
120
112
110 111
107
100 100
90
87
80
77
70
64 63
60
Source: MOPWM, Data From 1st Jan, 2020 to 30th Nov 2020 Index 28
Boarder Recovery In US Equity Markets – S&P 500
S&P 500 Weight as % Total Index Market Cap on Aggregated Basis ($ Bn) CYTD20* Returns
Dec-19 Nov-20 Dec-19 Nov-20 Oct-20 Nov-20
Top 5 15.5% 20.0% 4,472 6,456 34.8% 44.4%
6-10 7.3% 7.1% 2,003 2,209 -0.5% 10.3%
11-50 28.3% 26.5% 7,858 8,284 -5.0% 5.4%
51-100 15.5% 14.8% 4,362 4,682 -3.7% 7.3%
101-150 9.2% 8.8% 2,511 2,713 -3.8% 8.1%
151-200 6.4% 5.7% 1,793 1,785 -11.8% -0.4%
201-250 4.7% 4.7% 1,386 1,565 0.1% 12.9%
251-300 3.8% 3.8% 1,077 1,195 0.0% 11.0%
301-350 2.9% 2.6% 818 822 -9.6% 0.5%
351-400 2.4% 2.2% 687 701 -8.3% 2.7%
401-450 1.9% 1.5% 527 480 -20.7% -7.2%
451-500* 1.0% 0.7% 310 256 -12.1% 0.3%
Source: MOAMC, Bloomberg. Data is as of 30th Nov’20. CYTD20*: Returns made till 30th Nov’20; S&P 500 constituents are sorted according to their weight in index as of Dec-19
Note: Otis worldwide and Carrier Global Corporation is not considered in the above calculations. As they have got listed in March-20 and Companies that been removed from S&P
500 Index as on Nov’20 compared to Dec-19 are excluded from above calculations. 486 companies (98.6% of the Index) have been considered in the above calculation
Index 29
Market Cap to GDP – US vs. India
USA IND (Figures are in %)

200
181
180
165
160 150 150 146 148
142 143
134 138
140 130 138 131
125
115 115 LT Average - USA
120
104 101 120
100 88 91
87 79
97 97 76 77 76
80 69 72 68
67
61
55
60 46 LT Average - INDIA
54 55 56
40
20
Indian equity market looks attractive compared to US equity market

Source: MOPWM, MOFSL, World bank, Bloomberg and Ycharts, BSE . *CY20 data till 30th Nov’20.
Note: Data For US till 2018 is taken from World bank, for 2019 from Bloomberg and for CY20, it is taken from Long term trends & Ycharts
Data for India till 2019 is taken from world bank and for Mar’20 & CY’20 is taken from MOFSL.
Index 30
Explaining The Difference Between Stock Market & Economy
BSE 500 represents organised and strong …Where as GDP represent all the
growing companies of India… companies of India.
BSE 500 Sector Composition GDP Composition
Other
Others 5%
16% Agriculture
Public 15%
Administration,
Defense & Other
Construction 3% Finance Services
34% 13%
Pharma 5%
Manufacturi
ng
Automobile Real Estate &
18%
6% Prof Services
16%
Oil & Gas

Financial
11% Construction
Consumer Services
Trade, Hotel, 8%
Goods 6%
Transport,
IT 13% Communicati
12% on
19%
Data as on Nov’20 for BSE 500 composition – Source: BSE Index 31
Index Sector Weight Over years – Nifty 50
 Weightage of banks in Nifty 50 has tripled from 9% in 2000 to 27% currently

 Financials weight has increased from 1% in 2000 to 12% currently
 Consumer goods weight has halved to 11% currently; IT services weight has declined from 25% to 16%
currently
Sector 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Current
Automobiles 4% 2% 4% 5% 9% 6% 8% 7% 3% 4% 5% 8% 9% 8% 9% 9% 10% 11% 10% 6% 6%

Banks 9% 8% 8% 10% 11% 10% 14% 15% 14% 14% 18% 20% 19% 20% 21% 23% 23% 26% 27% 29% 27%
Cement 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2%
Construction 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 4% 5% 6% 9% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 2%
Consumer Goods 22% 25% 23% 19% 11% 7% 11% 7% 6% 9% 6% 7% 10% 13% 12% 10% 10% 10% 9% 10% 11%
Engineering 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 3% 4% 5% 4% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0%
Finance 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 8% 7% 8% 6% 8% 10% 10% 12%
IT Services 25% 20% 21% 21% 13% 21% 17% 18% 10% 11% 13% 14% 14% 15% 15% 17% 18% 13% 12% 14% 16%
Media 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Metals 3% 3% 3% 3% 8% 8% 6% 4% 7% 4% 9% 8% 7% 4% 5% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2%
Oil & Gas 19% 23% 20% 19% 21% 26% 15% 15% 19% 22% 16% 15% 13% 12% 12% 8% 9% 11% 12% 12% 13%
Others 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1%
Pharmaceuticals 8% 7% 9% 9% 7% 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 6% 4% 2% 4%
Real Estate 4% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Telecoms 4% 2% 3% 3% 7% 5% 5% 9% 8% 8% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Utilities 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2%
Nifty Index 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Source: Old Bridge Capital Management, Bloomberg, NSE, Data Updated as of 30th-Nov’20 Index 32
Domestic Equities – CYTD20 vs. Since CY17
Nifty 50 Nifty Midcap 100 Nifty Smallcap 100 (Jan'20-Nov'20)

120%
115%
110% 112%
106%
100%
90%
Mid & Small caps
80%
have outperformed
Large Caps in
70%
CYTD20
60%
50%
Nifty 50 Nifty Midcap 100 Nifty Smallcap 100 (Jan'18-Nov'20)

140%
120% 124% From the levels seen
100%
93%
at beginning CY18,
80%
72%
Small Cap index has
60% still a lot of catch-up
40% to be done
20%
0%
Source: MOPWM, Data as on 30th Nov 2020 Index 33

Historical ratio of Small Cap Index to Nifty 50
2003 I 2008 I 2013

0.95 0.96
0.90
0.85
0.75 0.76
0.65
0.55
0.50 0.51
0.45 0.45 0.46
0.41
0.35
May-08
May-13
May-18
Mar-04
Jan-05
Nov-05
Sep-06
Mar-09
Jan-10
Nov-10
Sep-11
Mar-14
Jan-15
Nov-15
Sep-16
Mar-19
Jan-20
Nov-20
Jul-07
Jul-12
Jul-17
Index Jan 04 to Jan 08 Mar 09 to Aug 10 July 13 to Jan 18
Nifty 50 3.4x 1.7x 1.9x
Nifty Midcap 100 4.0x 2.2x 3.0x
Nifty Small Cap 100 5.9x 2.3x 3.3x
Risk-reward still in favour of Small/Mid cap strategies within Equity portfolios

Source: MOAMC, Nseindices.com. Data as on 30th Nov 2020; The above graph is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only and should not used for
development or implementation of an investment strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
Index 34
BSE 500: Worst Performers of YTD Were The Best
Performers In Nov’20
November 2020 saw some of the earlier trends witnessing a reversal in monthly returns.
 Financials, Industrials, Consumer

Discretionary were the best
performing sectors in November,
but were underperformers for
CY20 till October end
 Conversely, Healthcare,
Information Technology and
Energy were underperformers for
November, but strong
outperformers for CY20 till
October end.
 Thus, in November 2020, the
worst performing sectors on a
year to date basis, delivered the
best returns and vice versa.
Source: Bloomberg, Union Asset Management Company Internal Research; #Till November 27, 2020 Index 35
Temperature Gauge Index
 Temperature Gauge Index is an equally weighted index of EY-BY and MOVI Index
 It incorporates PE Ratio, PB Ratio, Div. Yield and G-sec Yield, and hence is a useful
valuation metric.
Temperature Gauge Index Cheap Zone Fair Zone Expensive Zone

140
130 131
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Nifty – 3 Year Forward Return > 10% CAGR Between 0-10% CAGR < 0% 53%
33%
13%
-7%
Source: Capital Line, Internal Research, Data as of 4th Dec’20 Index 36

3 Yr Forward Returns Of Nifty At Different Levels Of
Temperature Gauge Index
% Times in
Nifty 50 3 Yr Return CAGR
CAGR range
No. of % Times
Index in Range Min Max Average 6% to 10% >=10%
Observations* Positive
65 70 26 17% 58% 26% 100% 0% 100%
70 75 91 14% 58% 31% 100% 0% 100%
75 80 54 18% 56% 38% 100% 0% 100%
80 85 158 15% 51% 39% 100% 0% 100% Whenever Temperature
85 90 190 12% 45% 35% 100% 0% 100% Gauge Index has been at
90 95 241 10% 49% 28% 100% 0% 100% the levels of 130-135, the
95 100 582 2% 48% 21% 100% 6% 93% forward returns shows a
100 105 554 1% 44% 15% 100% 20% 75% low probability of high
105 110 586 -4% 33% 11% 98% 28% 57%
single digit CAGR returns
110 115 864 -6% 28% 7% 89% 44% 17%
115 120 819 -7% 13% 5% 93% 28% 16%
120 125 387 -4% 10% 4% 87% 29% 0%
125 130 47 -1% 6% 2% 78% 0% 0%
130 135 41 -2% 3% 0% 66% 0% 0%
135 140 10 -3% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0%
Source: Capital Line, Internal Research, Data as of 4-Dec’20; *Total nos. of observation is 4,650 Index 37
Equity Allocation & Deployment Grid
 Below grid is based on Temperature Gauge Index
Valuation
100% Staggered
Expensive No Action Reduce Reduce
(Current Scenario)
Fair Invest Stay Invested Stay Invested 50% Staggered

50% Lump sum
Cheap Invest Invest Stay Invested 100% Lump sum
Strategic
Allocation
Underweight Neutral Overweight
Index 38
Nifty 50 Valuation – PE & PB
PE PB PE PB
Index 26.5 2.9 Contribution Index 26.5 2.9 Contribution
Company Allocation PE PB PE PB Company Allocation PE PB PE PB
Reliance Industr 11.2% 32.6 2.1 9.1% 15.7% HDFC Life Insur. 0.9% 99.5 17.1 0.2% 0.2%
HDFC Bank 11.2% 26.6 4.1 11.2% 8.1% Power Grid Corpn 0.9% 8.7 1.5 2.7% 1.7%
Infosys 7.2% 26.6 7.1 7.2% 3.0% NTPC 0.8% 7.7 0.8 2.8% 3.2%
HDFC 7.2% 24.9 2.8 7.7% 7.6% Britannia Inds. 0.8% 47.7 32.0 0.4% 0.1%
TCS 5.0% 32.4 10.8 4.1% 1.4% Divi's Lab. 0.8% 53.5 11.3 0.4% 0.2%
ICICI Bank 5.8% 23.6 2.3 6.6% 7.5% Cipla 0.7% 32.4 3.5 0.6% 0.6%
Kotak Mah. Bank 5.0% 37.7 4.7 3.5% 3.1% Bajaj Auto 0.7% 21.2 3.8 0.9% 0.6%
Hind. Unilever 3.4% 69.5 10.8 1.3% 0.9% Hero Motocorp 0.7% 23.9 4.1 0.8% 0.5%
ITC 3.0% 17.4 4.1 4.6% 2.2% Bajaj Finserv 1.0% 39.8 4.2 0.6% 0.7%
Axis Bank 2.7% 52.8 1.9 1.3% 4.2% IndusInd Bank 0.9% 23.0 1.7 1.0% 1.5%
Larsen & Toubro 2.5% 11.1 2.2 5.9% 3.3% Tata Steel 0.8% 0.0 1.0 2.3%
Bharti Airtel 2.0% 0.0 4.3 1.4% Grasim Inds 0.6% 15.6 1.0 1.1% 1.9%
Asian Paints 1.8% 106.3 18.7 0.4% 0.3% JSW Steel 0.6% 247.3 2.3 0.1% 0.8%
Maruti Suzuki 1.7% 52.0 4.3 0.9% 1.1% SBI Life Insuran 0.6% 52.9 8.8 0.3% 0.2%
HCL Technologies 1.6% 18.8 4.0 2.3% 1.2% Eicher Motors 0.6% 63.8 6.8 0.3% 0.3%
Bajaj Finance 2.3% 64.7 8.5 1.0% 0.8% Shree Cement 0.6% 51.7 6.3 0.3% 0.3%
St Bk of India 1.7% 10.6 0.9 4.2% 5.5% BPCL 0.5% 14.6 2.0 1.0% 0.8%
Nestle India 1.1% 82.6 75.1 0.4% 0.0% Adani Ports 0.5% 21.8 3.0 0.7% 0.5%
Dr Reddy's Labs 1.1% 50.7 4.9 0.6% 0.6% Hindalco Inds. 0.6% 32.8 0.9 0.5% 2.0%
M&M 1.2% 0.0 2.3 1.6% UPL 0.4% 12.0 2.0 0.9% 0.6%
UltraTech Cem. 1.0% 22.1 3.4 1.2% 0.9% Coal India 0.5% 5.7 2.1 2.2% 0.7%
Wipro 0.9% 21.0 3.3 1.2% 0.8% ONGC 0.5% 7.7 0.5 1.8% 3.1%
Sun Pharma.Inds. 1.0% 24.2 2.7 1.1% 1.1% Tata Motors 0.6% 0.0 1.1 1.5%
Tech Mahindra 1.0% 20.8 3.5 1.2% 0.8% IOCL 0.4% 5.6 0.8 1.8% 1.5%
Titan Company 1.0% 167.2 18.5 0.2% 0.2% GAIL (India) 0.3% 5.4 0.9 1.7% 1.1%
Source: Cline, MOPWM Internal Research; Data as oon 30th Nov Loss Making on TTM Basis Index 39
FII-DII Activity for Equities
 Nov’20 witnessed a dichotomy in flows between FII and DII.

 FII inflows were at the highest levels at USD8.3b, while DII sustained the highest net outflows of USD5.9b
Monthly Institutional Flows (USD Bn) FII DII

10.0 7.5 8.3
6.1
5.0 2.7
0.9
0.0
-1.5 -2.4
-5.0
-5.9
-10.0 -8.4
Jan-19
Jan-20
Mar-19
Apr-19
Apr-20
Jul-19
Oct-19
Mar-20
Oct-20
Jul-20
Aug-19
Aug-20
Dec-18
May-19
Jun-19
Dec-19
May-20
Jun-20
Feb-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Yearly Institutional Flows (USD Bn) FII DII
40.0
29.3
30.0 24.5
20.0
20.0 17.6 16.2 15.9
14.0 14.2 15.1
10.2
10.0 5.9 7.6 6.0
5.3 3.3 5.3
2.9 0.8
0.0
-0.5
-10.0 -4.7 -4.9 -4.4
-10.9 -13.0
-20.0
CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20*
Source: MOFSL, Data as on 26TH November 2020; for CY20 Data is as on 26th Nov’20 Back to Index 40
Summary
 Our View:
• The breadth of equity market recovery has improved
• Mid & Small Cap have outperformed large caps in CYTD20, however they still have quite some
catch up to be since the levels seen at beginning of CY18
• Temperature Gauge Index indicates that Large cap valuations are in expensive zone
 Existing Investors:
• As per their risk profile, investors having the appropriate level of Equity allocation should
continue to remain invested
• If Equity allocation is lower than desired levels, recommend to increase allocation by
investing in a staggered manner in Multicap strategies (MFs, PMS, AIF) over the next 3-6
months
 New Investors:
• Invest in a staggered manner over the next 3-6 months in Multicap strategies (MFs, PMS,
AIF) to achieve strategic equity allocation.
• Accelerate deployment in the event of any sharp correction.
Index 41
‘Long Term Investing’ study
The tables are to be read in the following manner: The left most column is the return for
the corresponding calendar year and as you move right it gives the CAGR for the period in
number of years.
Key Takeaways:
• In spite of the opening couple of years having negative returns, the active manager
has managed to provide double digit CAGR over the next 5 year time period
• 10 year returns are double digit for active funds irrespective of the starting valuation
• Low return periods are always followed by high to medium return periods. This
suggests that returns from equities are non linear and they are bunched up in few
years
• Even on a one year basis, 66.67% of the time returns are positive. On a 5 year period,
there have been no negative returns in active funds
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient”
– Warren Buffet
Index 42
Journey of Nifty 50 for 26 Years
Nifty 50 `
Years Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10 Yr 11 Yr 12 Yr 13 Yr 14 Yr 15 Yr 16 Yr 17 Yr 18 Yr 19 Yr 20 Yr 21 Yr 22 Yr 23 Yr 24 Yr 25 Yr 26*
1995 -23% -13% -3% -7% 5% 1% -2% -1% 5% 6% 8% 11% 14% 7% 10% 11% 8% 9% 9% 10% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10%
1996 -1% 9% -1% 13% 7% 3% 3% 10% 10% 12% 14% 17% 10% 13% 14% 11% 12% 11% 12% 11% 11% 12% 11% 11% 11%
1997 20% -1% 18% 9% 3% 3% 11% 11% 14% 16% 19% 10% 14% 15% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
1998 -18% 17% 5% 0% 0% 10% 10% 13% 16% 19% 10% 14% 14% 11% 12% 12% 13% 12% 11% 12% 12% 12% 11%
1999 67% 20% 6% 5% 16% 15% 18% 21% 24% 13% 17% 18% 14% 15% 14% 15% 14% 13% 14% 13% 13% 13%
2000 -15% -15% -10% 6% 7% 11% 15% 19% 8% 13% 14% 10% 11% 11% 12% 11% 11% 12% 11% 11% 11%
2001 -16% -7% 14% 13% 18% 21% 25% 11% 17% 17% 13% 14% 13% 14% 13% 12% 13% 13% 13% 12%
2002 3% 33% 25% 28% 30% 34% 16% 22% 22% 16% 17% 16% 17% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 14%
2003 72% 38% 37% 38% 41% 18% 25% 24% 17% 18% 17% 18% 16% 15% 16% 15% 15% 15%
2004 11% 23% 28% 34% 9% 18% 18% 12% 14% 13% 14% 13% 12% 13% 12% 12% 12%
2005 36% 38% 43% 9% 20% 20% 12% 14% 13% 15% 13% 12% 13% 13% 12% 12%
2006 40% 47% 1% 16% 17% 8% 11% 10% 13% 11% 10% 12% 11% 11% 11%
2007 55% -14% 9% 12% 3% 7% 7% 10% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9%
2008 -52% -8% 0% -7% -1% 0% 4% 3% 3% 6% 5% 6% 6%
2009 76% 44% 16% 19% 16% 19% 15% 14% 15% 14% 14% 13%
2010 18% -6% 4% 5% 10% 7% 7% 9% 9% 9% 9%
2011 -25% -2% 1% 8% 5% 5% 8% 7% 8% 8%
2012 28% 17% 21% 14% 12% 15% 13% 13% 12%
2013 7% 18% 10% 9% 12% 11% 11% 10%
2014 31% 12% 9% 14% 11% 12% 11%
2015 -4% -1% 8% 7% 8% 8%
2016 3% 15% 11% 11% 10%
2017 29% 15% 14% 12%
2018 3% 7% 7%
2019 12% 9%
2020* 7%
No of obs 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
% of Positive
69% 64% 83% 87% 95% 100% 95% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
obs
No of
18 16 20 20 21 21 19 18 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Positive obs
Disclaimer: Past performance may or may not be sustained in future,
*2020 returns are as of 30th Nov
Index 43
Journey of HDFC Equity Fund for 26 Years
HDFC Equity
Years Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10 Yr 11 Yr 12 Yr 13 Yr 14 Yr 15 Yr 16 Yr 17 Yr 18 Yr 19 Yr 20 Yr 21 Yr 22 Yr 23 Yr 24 Yr 25 Yr 26
1995 -29% -26% -13% -2% 19% 11% 9% 11% 20% 21% 24% 25% 27% 19% 23% 24% 20% 21% 20% 21% 20% 19% 20% 19% 18% 17%
1996 -23% -3% 9% 35% 22% 17% 18% 28% 28% 31% 32% 33% 24% 28% 28% 24% 24% 23% 25% 23% 22% 23% 22% 21% 20%
1997 23% 30% 63% 36% 27% 27% 38% 37% 39% 39% 40% 29% 33% 33% 28% 28% 27% 28% 26% 25% 26% 24% 23% 22%
1998 38% 88% 41% 29% 28% 41% 39% 41% 41% 42% 29% 34% 34% 28% 29% 27% 28% 26% 25% 26% 24% 23% 22%
1999 156% 43% 26% 25% 41% 39% 42% 41% 42% 28% 34% 34% 28% 28% 26% 28% 26% 25% 25% 24% 23% 21%
2000 -20% -12% -1% 22% 23% 29% 30% 32% 19% 26% 26% 20% 21% 20% 22% 20% 19% 20% 19% 18% 17%
2001 -3% 10% 40% 37% 41% 41% 42% 25% 32% 32% 25% 26% 24% 26% 23% 22% 23% 22% 21% 19%
2002 24% 68% 53% 55% 51% 52% 30% 37% 36% 28% 29% 26% 28% 26% 24% 25% 23% 22% 21%
2003 126% 70% 67% 59% 58% 30% 39% 38% 29% 29% 27% 29% 26% 24% 25% 23% 22% 20%
2004 28% 44% 41% 44% 17% 28% 29% 20% 21% 19% 22% 20% 19% 20% 18% 17% 16%
2005 63% 49% 50% 14% 29% 29% 19% 21% 19% 22% 19% 18% 19% 18% 17% 15%
2006 36% 44% 2% 21% 23% 13% 16% 14% 18% 15% 15% 16% 15% 14% 13%
2007 54% -12% 17% 20% 9% 12% 11% 16% 13% 13% 15% 13% 13% 11%
2008 -50% 2% 10% -1% 6% 5% 11% 9% 9% 11% 10% 10% 9%
2009 106% 63% 25% 27% 22% 27% 22% 20% 22% 19% 18% 16%
2010 29% -3% 8% 7% 15% 12% 11% 14% 12% 11% 10%
2011 -27% -1% 1% 12% 8% 8% 12% 10% 9% 8%
2012 34% 18% 29% 19% 17% 20% 16% 15% 13%
2013 4% 26% 15% 13% 17% 14% 13% 11%
2014 54% 21% 16% 21% 16% 14% 12%
2015 -5% 1% 12% 8% 8% 6%
2016 7% 21% 12% 11% 8%
2017 37% 15% 12% 8%
2018 -4% -2% 0%
2019 7% 2%
2020* -3%
No of obs 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
No of Positive obs 17 17 22 21 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
% of Positive obs 65% 68% 92% 91% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Outperformace to Nifty 15 19 20 21 20 20 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
% Outperformace to
Nifty
58% 76% 83% 91% 91% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Disclaimer: Past performance may or may not be sustained in future,
*2020 returns are as of 30th Nov
Index 44
2. Fixed Income
3. Equity
4. Gold
5. Delphi
6. Annexure
45
Gold Demand On Par With 2009; While Inflow Avenues Shifted
Strong growth in global investment demand for gold in Q3 partly offset weakness elsewhere
Note: Bars represent year-to-date demand for each corresponding year

Source: Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS, World Gold Council; 2020 is YTD – Oct’20
Index 46
Central Banks Turned Net Sellers In Q3, The First Time In
Ten Years
Nevertheless, central banks remain net purchasers on a y-t-d basis. We continue to expect central
banks to remain net buyers in 2020, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous two years.
Source: Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS, World Gold Council

Index 47
World Jewellery Demand
Jewelry demand remained in the doldrums in Q3, thwarted by the unprecedented global
environment and historical high gold prices.
Source: MOSL Index 48

Gold – Historical Performance
GOLD Spot ($/Oz) 57000 Gold Spot (INR/10 gm)*

2100
54000
2000
1900 51000
1800 48000
1700 45000
1600 42000
1500 39000
1400 36000
Feb-20
Apr-20
Sep-20
Dec-19
Dec-19
May-20
Oct-20
Jan-20
Mar-20
Aug-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Nov-20
Nov-20
Apr-20
May-20
Dec-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Jun-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Nov-20
Feb-20
Sep-20
*Gold in INR = Gold in USD * USD-INR Rates
Absolute Returns (%) CAGR (%)

Particulars
1 month 3 months 6 months 1 year 3 year 5 year
Gold Spot ($) -5.4% -9.6% 2.7% 21.4% 11.7% 10.8%
Gold Spot (INR) -5.6% -8.8% 0.5% 25.2% 17.0% 13.1%
We maintain positive stance on Gold for long term and change our stance for the short term
from positive to neutral
Data available till 30th Nov 2020
Source: Bloomberg; MOPWM Index 49
2. Fixed Income
3. Equity
4. Gold
5. Delphi
6. Annexure
50
‘Delphi’ – Portfolio Allocation Range
Asset Class/ Portfolio ASAP 4C Conservative
Equity - IND 10-30% 70-100% 0-25%
Debt & Cash 30-60% 0-30% 70-100%
Gold 10-30% 0-20% 0-10%
International Equities 10-30% 0-20% -

ASAP - Alpha Strategist Advantage Portfolio
Index 51
ASAP - Simple Equal-Weight Portfolio…
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Equity-INDEquity-INDEquity-INDEquity-INDEquity-IND Equity-US Equity-US Equity-US Equity-US Equity-IND Debt Debt Gold Equity-INDEquity-INDEquity-IND
34.4% 82.1% 37.0% 27.9% 17.4% 50.4% 22.6% 43.3% 37.3% 63.8% 9.0% 8.5% 24.1% 71.9% 10.7% 36.3%
ASAP Equity-US Equity-US Gold Debt Gold Debt Equity-IND Debt Equity-US Cash Cash Debt ASAP ASAP Gold
10.4% 79.8% 17.3% 27.1% 13.0% 13.3% 12.0% 18.6% 10.5% 22.5% 5.6% 6.4% 12.7% 27.1% 6.7% 22.2%
Debt ASAP ASAP ASAP Cash Debt Cash ASAP ASAP ASAP Gold Gold Cash Equity-US Cash ASAP
9.0% 42.2% 16.7% 18.8% 7.0% 13.0% 9.4% 13.2% 9.2% 20.7% 1.3% 5.9% 6.4% 20.2% 4.0% 14.5%
Cash Gold Cash Equity-US ASAP ASAP ASAP Debt Gold Debt ASAP ASAP ASAP Gold Equity-US Equity-US
8.0% 31.3% 12.1% 16.5% 6.6% 12.9% 8.0% 11.0% 8.1% 9.0% -1.7% -1.4% 4.4% 13.5% 3.8% 6.8%
Gold Debt Debt Debt Equity-US Cash Equity-IND Cash Cash Cash Equity-US Equity-US Equity-IND Debt Gold Debt
2.3% 9.0% 11.0% 12.0% -1.9% 8.8% -0.8% 7.0% 6.5% 5.7% -3.7% -10.1% 2.7% 8.1% 0.5% 4.8%
Equity-US Cash Gold Cash Gold Equity-IND Gold Gold Equity-IND Gold Equity-INDEquity-IND Equity-US Cash Debt Cash
-1.5% 9.0% 6.3% 10.3% -2.3% -20.8% -3.2% -14.0% -16.5% 2.4% -20.6% -17.9% -23.8% 4.6% -0.3% 4.6%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013^ 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*
Equity-IND Equity-IND Gold Equity-IND Gold Gold Equity-IND Equity-US Equity-IND Debt Debt Equity-IND Cash Equity-US Gold
39.8% 54.8% 31.0% 75.8% 24.5% 30.7% 27.7% 45.6% 31.4% 8.6% 12.9% 28.6% 7.6% 31.9% 21.4%
Gold Gold Debt ASAP Equity-IND Equity-US Equity-US ASAP Debt Cash Equity-US ASAP Gold Gold Equity-US
21.0% 16.6% 9.1% 29.4% 17.9% 18.7% 17.5% 12.2% 14.3% 8.2% 12.5% 12.4% 7.5% 21.0% 16.2%
ASAP ASAP Cash Gold ASAP ASAP ASAP Cash ASAP Equity-US Gold Equity-US Debt ASAP ASAP
15.4% 14.0% 8.4% 18.6% 11.6% 8.3% 15.3% 9.0% 14.2% 4.2% 11.0% 12.3% 5.9% 16.6% 14.1%
Equity-US Cash ASAP Equity-US Equity-US Cash Gold Equity-IND Equity-US ASAP ASAP Gold ASAP Equity-IND Debt
11.7% 7.5% -7.6% 17.7% 8.4% 8.2% 11.0% 6.8% 13.6% 3.1% 9.9% 6.8% 3.8% 12.0% 11.8%
Cash Debt Equity-US Cash Cash Debt Debt Debt Cash Equity-IND Cash Cash Equity-IND Debt Equity-IND
6.0% 6.9% -23.8% 4.9% 5.1% 6.9% 9.4% 3.8% 9.2% -4.1% 7.5% 6.7% 3.2% 10.7% 6.6%
Debt Equity-US Equity-IND Debt Debt Equity-IND Cash Gold Gold Gold Equity-IND Debt Equity-US Cash Cash
4.0% -7.8% -51.8% 3.5% 5.0% -24.6% 8.5% -19.4% 0.5% -6.0% 3.0% 4.7% 2.4% 6.9% 4.3%
^ For ASAP: Model Portfolios are used from 2012 onwards; ASAP - Alpha Strategist Advantage Portfolio
*CAGR is for period 1990 to 30th Nov 2020. Equity-IND is represented by Sensex from 1990 to 2002 and Nifty 50 from 2002 onwards; Debt is represented by SBI 1-yr FD rates from 1990 to 2002 and CRISIL Composite bond Index from 2002 onwards;
Cash is represented by SBI 3-month FD rates from 1990 to 2002 and CRISIL Liquid fund Index from 2002 onwards; Gold is represented by gold spot price in INR terms. Equity-US is represented by S&P 500 in INR terms; Source: AceMF; Bloomberg
Index 52
Note: ASAP Portfolio (Equity Sensex 1990-2002,Nifty200-2012 and MF Model Portfolio 2013 onwards; Debt: SBI 1 yr 1990-2002; CRISIL Composite 2002-2012, Debt only Model Portfolio 2013 onwards; Cash- SBI 3 month
deposit 1900-2002; HDFC liquid (g)- REG 2002-2012;HEFC Liquid (G)- Direct 2013 onwards; Gold – Gold sport Price (INR 1990-2008;Nippon Gold Bees 2008 onwards; S&P 500 in INR 1990 onwards
ASAP – The Big Picture!
Asset Class Equity-IND Equity-US Debt Cash Gold ASAP
CAGR from 1990 to 2020* 13.5% 13.0% 8.7% 7.2% 10.1% 11.9%
Standard Deviation 28.0% 15.0% 2.6% 0.6% 15.8% 8.2%
Maximum Drawdown -55.1% -45.9% -6.3% 0.0% -25.3% -11.4%
Maximum Returns - 3Y 59.6% 41.1% 12.7% 10.6% 32.6% 27.1%
Minimum Returns - 3Y -15.7% -14.9% 2.4% 4.4% -8.7% 0.1%
Average Returns - 3Y 12.5% 13.0% 8.5% 7.2% 9.9% 11.3%
Positive Observations (%) - 3Y 83.9% 81.0% 100.0% 100.0% 84.5% 100.0%
% Observations
Returns Distribution
(3Y Rolling Returns) Equity-IND Equity-US Debt Cash Gold ASAP
-20% to -10% 3.3% 4.8% 0% 0% 0% 0%

-10% to 0% 12.8% 14.3% 0% 0% 15.5%
0% to 6% 22.0% 10.1% 16.1% 21.7% 23.5% 10.7%
6% to 10% 15.5% 8.9% 53.9% 72.6% 13.4% 25.6%
10% to 20% 22.3% 32.4% 30.1% 5.7% 28.3% 58.0%
20% to 30% 8.6% 15.8% 0% 0% 18.5% 5.7%
Above 30% 15.5% 13.7% 0% 0% 0.9%
ASAP - Alpha Strategist Advantage Portfolio
*CAGR is for period 1990 to 30th Nov 2020. Equity-IND is represented by Sensex from 1990 to 2002 and Nifty 50 from 2002 onwards; Debt is represented by SBI 1-yr FD
rates from 1990 to 2002 and CRISIL Composite bond Index from 2002 onwards; Cash is represented by SBI 3-month FD rates from 1990 to 2002 and CRISIL Liquid fund
Index from 2002 onwards; Gold is represented by gold spot price in INR terms. Equity-US is represented by S&P 500 in INR terms; Source: AceMF; Bloomberg
Note: ASAP Portfolio (Equity Sensex 1990-2002,Nifty200-2012 and MF Model Portfolio 2013 onwards; Debt: SBI 1 yr 1990-2002; CRISIL Composite 2002-2012, Debt Index
only 53
Model Portfolio 2013 onwards; Cash- SBI 3 month deposit 1900-2002; HDFC liquid (g)- REG 2002-2012;HEFC Liquid (G)- Direct 2013 onwards; Gold – Gold sport Price
(INR 1990-2008;Nippon Gold Bees 2008 onwards; S&P 500 in INR 1990 onwards Disclaimer :Past Performance is no guarantee of future Results
ASAP – Time Window Performance
Performance as on 30/11/2020 Absolute CAGR(%)

Strategy 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y
ASAP 2.7% 12.4% 15.6% 14.9% 11.7% 11.2% 10.5% 11.1%

Nifty 50* 13.9% 35.4% 7.6% 9.2% 8.2% 10.3% 11.2% 8.3%
S&P 500 - INR 4.0% 16.4% 18.9% 18.1% 16.2% 14.1% 13.2% 17.3%
Gold - INR -9.2% 0.5% 25.2% 24.4% 16.9% 13.1% 7.7% 7.5%
Crisil Composite 3.5% 4.9% 12.0% 12.2% 9.3% 9.3% 9.9% 8.9%
Crisil Liquid 0.9% 2.0% 4.8% 5.9% 6.4% 6.7% 7.3% 7.7%
Data up to 30th Nov 2020. Source: AceMF; Bloomberg, MOPWM Disclaimer :Past Performance is no guarantee of future Results
^ For ASAP: Model Portfolios are used from 2012 onwards; ASAP - Alpha Strategist Advantage Portfolio
*Nifty is represented by Sensex from 1990 to 2002 and Nifty 50 from 2002 onwards.
Note: ASAP Portfolio (Equity Sensex 1990-2002,Nifty200-2012 and MF Model Portfolio 2013 onwards; Debt: SBI 1 yr 1990-2002; CRISIL Composite 2002-2012, Debt only Model
Portfolio 2013 onwards; Cash- SBI 3 month deposit 1900-2002; HDFC liquid (g)- REG 2002-2012;HEFC Liquid (G)- Direct 2013 onwards; Gold – Gold sport Price (INR 1990-
2008;Nippon Gold Bees 2008 onwards; S&P 500 in INR 1990 onwards.
Index 54
4C – Time Window Performance
Average Rolling Returns 4c Nifty 500 TRI
14.5% 14.4%
13.6% 13.6%
12.4% 12.3% 11.9% 12.0%
1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y
Strategy 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y
4C 9.1% 30.1% 5.8% 9.9% 5.2% 10.0% 14.9%
Nifty 500 TRI 14.6% 37.8% 10.4% 9.7% 6.6% 11.2% 13.6%
Data up to 30th Nov’2020

Source: AceMF; Bloomberg, MOPWM Disclaimer :Past Performance is no guarantee of future Results
4C Advantage Portfolio consist of MOPWM MF Model Portfolio Index 55
Conservative – Time Window Performance
Average Rolling Returns

Conservative CRISIL Composite CRISIL Liquid
9.09% 9.11% 9.08% 9.14%

8.81% 8.85% 8.80% 8.86%
7.69% 7.70% 7.63% 7.62%
1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y
Strategy 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y
Conservative 3.1% 5.3% 11.2% 11.1% 8.9% 8.9% 9.6%
Crisil Composite 3.5% 4.9% 12.0% 12.2% 9.3% 9.3% 9.9%
Crisil Liquid 0.9% 2.0% 4.8% 5.9% 6.4% 6.7% 7.3%
Data up to 30th Nov’2020; Rolling Returns Period of Analysis is Oct’12 to Nov’20

Source: AceMF; Bloomberg, ACEMF, MOPWM Disclaimer :Past Performance is no guarantee of future Results
Conservative consist of MOPWM Debt Model Portfolio Index 56
2. Fixed Income
3. Equity
4. Gold
5. Delphi
6. Annexure
57
India’s EXIM - Imports Improve Along With Economy,
But Remain In Negative Zone
Imports declined much faster than exports in Oct’20… …leading to lower trade deficit during the month compared to a
year ago
Imports continued to decline faster than exports up to Oct’20 …and cumulative trade deficit during the seven months of FY21 was
(monthly YTD growth)… at 15-year low
Apr-Oct for all years Index 58

Source: Commerce Ministry, MOFSL
High Term Spreads :
..Due to Worries on Bond Supply, Inflation & Fiscal
India G-Sec 10Y-5Y Spread (bps) India G-Sec 5Y-3Y Spread (bps)
120.00 120.00
100.00 83 100.00
80.00
80.00 73
60.00
40.00 60.00
20.00
40.00
0.00
20.00
-20.00
-40.00 0.00
India G-Sec 10Y-2Y Spread (bps) India G-Sec 5Y-2Y Spread (bps)
250.00 140.00
199 120.00
200.00 115
100.00
150.00 80.00
100.00 60.00
40.00
50.00
20.00
0.00 0.00
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Bank Research, Data as of 30th Nov’20 Index 59

Long Term Investing
Assets & Their Correlation
Index 60
Equities – S&P 500 (USD)
Min -38% -20% -16% -8% -4% -3% -3% -5% -5% -3% -1% -1% 0% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7%
Avg 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 7% Value
Max 34% 29% 28% 28% 26% 21% 19% 18% 18% 15% 13% 11% 10% 10% 9% 10% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% (x)
Years Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10 Yr 11 Yr 12 Yr 13 Yr 14 Yr 15 Yr 16 Yr 17 Yr 18 Yr 19 Yr 20 Yr 21 Yr 22 Yr 23 Yr 24 Yr 25 Yr 26 Yr 27 Yr 28 Yr 29 Yr 30 Yr 31
1990 -8% 8% 7% 7% 5% 9% 11% 13% 15% 15% 13% 10% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 9.1
1991 26% 15% 12% 9% 13% 14% 17% 18% 18% 15% 12% 9% 10% 10% 9% 10% 9% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9.9
1992 4% 6% 3% 10% 12% 15% 17% 17% 14% 11% 7% 9% 9% 8% 9% 8% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7.8
1993 7% 3% 12% 14% 17% 19% 19% 15% 11% 7% 9% 9% 8% 9% 8% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 8% 8% 7.5
1994 -2% 15% 17% 20% 21% 21% 16% 12% 7% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 8% 8% 7.0
1995 34% 27% 28% 28% 26% 19% 14% 8% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 8% 8% 7% 7% 8% 7% 8% 8% 7.1
1996 20% 26% 26% 24% 16% 11% 5% 8% 8% 7% 8% 8% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 7% 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 5.3
1997 31% 29% 26% 16% 9% 3% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 4.4
1998 27% 23% 11% 4% -2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% -1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 5% 3.4
1999 20% 4% -2% -8% -2% 0% 0% 2% 2% -3% -1% 0% 0% 1% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 2.7
2000 -10% -12% -16% -7% -4% -3% -1% 0% -5% -3% -1% -1% 0% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2.2
2001 -13% -18% -6% -2% -1% 1% 2% -5% -2% 0% 0% 1% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 2.5
2002 -23% -2% 2% 2% 4% 4% -3% 0% 1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 2.8
2003 26% 17% 12% 13% 11% 0% 3% 5% 4% 5% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 8% 8% 3.7
2004 9% 6% 8% 7% -4% 0% 2% 2% 3% 5% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 2.9
2005 3% 8% 7% -7% -2% 1% 1% 2% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 7% 6% 2.7
2006 14% 8% -10% -3% 0% 0% 2% 5% 6% 5% 5% 7% 6% 7% 7% 2.6
2007 4% -20% -8% -3% -2% 0% 4% 5% 4% 5% 6% 5% 7% 6% 2.3
2008 -38% -13% -5% -4% -1% 4% 5% 4% 5% 6% 5% 7% 6% 2.2
2009 23% 18% 12% 12% 15% 15% 12% 12% 13% 11% 12% 11% 3.6
2010 13% 6% 9% 13% 13% 11% 10% 12% 9% 11% 10% 2.9
2011 0% 6% 14% 13% 10% 10% 11% 9% 11% 10% 2.6
2012 13% 21% 18% 13% 12% 13% 10% 13% 11% 2.6
2013 30% 20% 13% 12% 13% 10% 12% 11% 2.3
2014 11% 5% 7% 10% 6% 10% 9% 1.8
2015 -1% 4% 9% 5% 9% 8% 1.6
2016 10% 14% 7% 12% 10% 1.6
2017 19% 6% 13% 10% 1.5
2018 -6% 10% 7% 1.2
2019 29% 16% 1.3
2020 1% 1.0
Total Observations 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
No of Positive Observations 21 25 23 21 19 24 23 21 21 19 17 19 18 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
% of Positive Observations 68% 83% 79% 75% 70% 92% 92% 88% 91% 86% 81% 95% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Analysis period from 1st Jan 1990 to 31st October 2020

Source: Bloomberg; S&P 500 Index 61
Equities – S&P 500 (INR)
Min -24% -17% -13% -6% -4% -2% -3% -4% -4% -2% -1% 0% 2% 3% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 6% 7% 7% 8% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 13% 13%
Avg 14% 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% Value
Max 80% 45% 38% 38% 35% 28% 30% 31% 30% 27% 23% 20% 18% 17% 16% 16% 15% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% (x)
1990 -2% 33% 28% 25% 19% 24% 23% 26% 27% 27% 23% 20% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 13% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 12% 13% 13% 40.0
1991 80% 45% 35% 25% 29% 28% 30% 31% 30% 26% 22% 18% 18% 17% 16% 16% 14% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 40.6
1992 17% 17% 10% 19% 20% 23% 25% 25% 21% 18% 13% 14% 13% 13% 12% 11% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 11% 22.6
1993 17% 7% 20% 20% 25% 27% 26% 22% 18% 13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 11% 8% 9% 9% 9% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 19.3
1994 -2% 21% 22% 27% 29% 28% 23% 18% 12% 13% 12% 12% 12% 10% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 11% 11% 16.5
1995 50% 36% 38% 38% 35% 27% 21% 14% 15% 14% 13% 13% 11% 8% 9% 9% 9% 10% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 16.9
1996 23% 33% 34% 31% 23% 17% 10% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11.2
1997 43% 40% 34% 23% 16% 8% 10% 9% 9% 9% 7% 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 9.1
1998 37% 30% 17% 10% 2% 5% 5% 5% 6% 4% 1% 3% 3% 4% 5% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 6.4
1999 23% 9% 2% -5% -1% 0% 1% 2% 1% -2% 0% 1% 2% 3% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 4.6
2000 -4% -7% -13% -6% -4% -2% 0% -1% -4% -2% -1% 0% 2% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 7% 7% 3.8
2001 -10% -17% -6% -4% -2% 0% -1% -4% -2% -1% 1% 2% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 3.9
2002 -24% -4% -2% 0% 3% 1% -3% -1% 0% 2% 3% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 4.4
2003 20% 12% 10% 10% 7% 1% 3% 4% 5% 6% 9% 10% 9% 10% 10% 9% 11% 10% 5.8
2004 4% 5% 7% 3% -3% 0% 1% 3% 5% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 4.8
2005 7% 9% 3% -4% 0% 1% 3% 5% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 4.6
2006 12% 1% -8% -2% 0% 3% 5% 9% 10% 9% 9% 10% 9% 11% 10% 4.3
2007 -8% -16% -6% -3% 1% 4% 9% 10% 9% 9% 10% 9% 11% 10% 3.9
2008 -24% -5% -1% 4% 6% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 4.2
2009 18% 13% 15% 15% 21% 20% 17% 17% 16% 15% 16% 16% 5.5
2010 8% 13% 15% 22% 20% 17% 17% 16% 14% 16% 15% 4.7
2011 19% 18% 27% 23% 19% 18% 17% 15% 17% 16% 4.3
2012 18% 31% 25% 19% 18% 17% 15% 17% 16% 3.6
2013 46% 29% 20% 18% 17% 14% 17% 16% 3.1
2014 14% 9% 10% 11% 9% 12% 12% 2.1
2015 4% 8% 10% 8% 12% 11% 1.9
2016 12% 12% 9% 14% 13% 1.8
2017 12% 7% 15% 13% 1.6
2018 2% 16% 13% 1.4
2019 32% 20% 1.4
2020 5% 1.1

Source: Bloomberg; S&P 500 Index 62
Equities – NASDAQ 100 (USD)
Min -42% -35% -36% -21% -15% -13% -10% -8% -12% -7% -5% -4% -3% 0% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 4% 5% 9% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13%
Avg 18% 16% 15% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 12% 11% 11% 10% 9% 10% 10% 9% 10% 10% 9% 10% 10% 11% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 14% 13% Value
Max 102% 93% 65% 59% 56% 45% 40% 35% 38% 32% 24% 21% 17% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 12% 13% 12% 12% 13% 14% 13% 14% 14% 13% 14% 14% 13% (x)
1990 -12% 21% 17% 15% 12% 17% 20% 20% 26% 32% 24% 17% 12% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 9% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 13% 13% 48.5
1991 65% 34% 26% 19% 24% 26% 26% 32% 38% 28% 21% 14% 17% 16% 15% 15% 15% 11% 12% 13% 12% 12% 13% 14% 13% 13% 14% 13% 14% 14% 55.1
1992 9% 10% 7% 15% 20% 20% 28% 35% 24% 17% 10% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 8% 10% 11% 10% 10% 11% 12% 12% 11% 12% 12% 12% 13% 33.4
1993 11% 6% 17% 23% 22% 31% 40% 26% 18% 11% 14% 13% 12% 12% 12% 8% 10% 11% 10% 11% 12% 12% 12% 11% 12% 12% 13% 13% 30.7
1994 2% 20% 27% 26% 36% 45% 29% 19% 11% 14% 14% 13% 12% 13% 8% 10% 11% 10% 11% 12% 12% 12% 11% 12% 12% 13% 13% 27.8
1995 43% 43% 35% 46% 56% 34% 21% 12% 15% 15% 14% 13% 13% 8% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 13% 14% 27.3
1996 43% 31% 47% 59% 32% 18% 8% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 6% 9% 9% 9% 9% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 11% 12% 13% 19.2
1997 21% 50% 65% 30% 14% 3% 9% 9% 8% 8% 9% 3% 6% 7% 7% 8% 9% 10% 9% 9% 10% 10% 11% 12% 13.5
1998 85% 93% 33% 12% 0% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 2% 5% 6% 6% 7% 8% 9% 9% 9% 10% 9% 10% 11% 11.2
1999 102% 13% -5% -14% -4% -2% -2% -1% 1% -4% 0% 2% 2% 3% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 6% 8% 9% 6.0
2000 -37% -35% -36% -21% -15% -13% -10% -7% -12% -7% -5% -4% -3% 0% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 4% 5% 3.0
2001 -33% -35% -14% -9% -7% -5% -2% -8% -3% -1% 0% 1% 3% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 8% 4.7
2002 -38% -4% 1% 1% 2% 5% -4% 2% 4% 4% 5% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 11% 7.0
2003 49% 28% 19% 16% 16% 4% 10% 11% 10% 10% 12% 13% 13% 12% 13% 12% 14% 15% 11.2
2004 10% 6% 6% 9% -4% 4% 6% 6% 7% 9% 10% 10% 10% 11% 10% 12% 13% 7.5
2005 1% 4% 9% -7% 3% 5% 5% 6% 9% 10% 10% 10% 11% 10% 12% 13% 6.8
2006 7% 13% -10% 3% 6% 6% 7% 10% 11% 11% 10% 12% 11% 13% 14% 6.7
2007 19% -17% 2% 6% 5% 7% 11% 12% 11% 11% 12% 11% 13% 14% 6.3
2008 -42% -6% 2% 2% 5% 9% 11% 10% 10% 12% 11% 13% 14% 5.3
2009 54% 35% 23% 22% 24% 23% 21% 19% 20% 18% 20% 21% 9.1
2010 19% 11% 13% 18% 18% 16% 15% 17% 15% 17% 18% 5.9
2011 3% 10% 17% 18% 16% 14% 16% 14% 16% 18% 5.0
2012 17% 26% 23% 19% 16% 19% 16% 18% 20% 4.9
2013 35% 26% 20% 16% 19% 16% 19% 20% 4.2
2014 18% 13% 11% 16% 12% 16% 18% 3.1
2015 8% 7% 15% 11% 16% 18% 2.6
2016 6% 18% 11% 17% 20% 2.4
2017 32% 14% 22% 24% 2.3
2018 -1% 17% 21% 1.7
2019 38% 35% 1.7
2020 27% 1.3

Index 63
Source: Bloomberg; NASDAQ 100
Equities – NASDAQ 100 (INR)
Min -38% -34% -34% -20% -15% -12% -10% -8% -11% -6% -4% -2% -1% 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 7% 8% 11% 14% 15% 15% 15% 16% 17% 17% 18% 19%
Avg 24% 22% 20% 19% 18% 18% 18% 17% 17% 16% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 14% 15% 16% 16% 17% 17% 17% 18% 18% 19% 19% Value
Max 135% 104% 76% 68% 66% 53% 48% 47% 52% 45% 36% 28% 25% 24% 22% 21% 20% 19% 18% 18% 18% 18% 20% 20% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 20% 19% (x)
1990 -6% 49% 39% 34% 27% 32% 34% 34% 40% 45% 36% 28% 21% 23% 21% 20% 19% 19% 15% 17% 17% 17% 17% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 19% 213.4
1991 135% 69% 51% 37% 41% 42% 40% 47% 52% 41% 32% 24% 25% 24% 22% 21% 20% 17% 18% 18% 18% 18% 20% 20% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 20% 225.9
1992 22% 21% 14% 24% 28% 29% 37% 44% 33% 24% 17% 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 12% 14% 14% 14% 14% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 17% 17% 96.2
1993 20% 10% 25% 30% 30% 40% 48% 34% 25% 16% 18% 17% 16% 15% 15% 11% 13% 13% 14% 14% 16% 16% 16% 15% 16% 15% 16% 17% 78.7
1994 1% 27% 33% 33% 44% 53% 36% 25% 16% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 11% 13% 13% 13% 14% 15% 16% 16% 15% 16% 15% 16% 17% 65.4
1995 60% 52% 45% 57% 66% 43% 29% 18% 20% 19% 17% 16% 15% 12% 14% 14% 14% 15% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 17% 18% 64.7
1996 45% 38% 57% 68% 40% 25% 13% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 9% 11% 11% 12% 12% 14% 15% 14% 14% 15% 14% 15% 16% 40.5
1997 32% 63% 76% 39% 21% 8% 12% 12% 11% 10% 10% 6% 9% 9% 10% 11% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 14% 15% 27.9
1998 101% 104% 41% 18% 4% 10% 9% 8% 8% 8% 4% 7% 7% 8% 9% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 14% 21.1
1999 107% 18% -1% -12% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% -3% 1% 2% 3% 5% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 11% 10.5
2000 -32% -31% -34% -20% -15% -12% -10% -8% -11% -6% -4% -2% -1% 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 7% 8% 5.1
2001 -30% -34% -15% -10% -7% -6% -4% -7% -3% -1% 1% 2% 6% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 10% 11% 7.5
2002 -38% -6% -3% -1% 0% 1% -4% 2% 3% 5% 6% 9% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 12% 13% 10.8
2003 42% 22% 16% 13% 12% 4% 9% 10% 11% 12% 15% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 16% 17% 17.4
2004 5% 5% 5% 5% -2% 4% 6% 8% 9% 13% 13% 13% 13% 14% 13% 15% 16% 12.3
2005 5% 5% 5% -4% 4% 6% 8% 10% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 16% 17% 11.7
2006 5% 5% -7% 4% 6% 8% 10% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 16% 18% 11.1
2007 6% -13% 4% 6% 9% 11% 16% 17% 16% 16% 16% 16% 17% 19% 10.6
2008 -28% 3% 6% 10% 12% 18% 18% 18% 17% 17% 17% 18% 20% 10.0
2009 46% 29% 27% 25% 30% 29% 26% 24% 24% 22% 24% 25% 13.9
2010 15% 18% 19% 27% 25% 23% 21% 21% 20% 22% 23% 9.5
2011 22% 21% 31% 28% 25% 22% 22% 21% 23% 24% 8.3
2012 21% 36% 30% 26% 22% 23% 20% 23% 24% 6.8
2013 52% 35% 28% 23% 23% 20% 23% 25% 5.6
2014 20% 17% 14% 16% 15% 19% 21% 3.7
2015 14% 11% 15% 13% 18% 21% 3.1
2016 9% 16% 13% 20% 23% 2.7
2017 24% 16% 24% 27% 2.5
2018 8% 24% 28% 2.0
2019 41% 40% 1.9
2020 32% 1.3

Index 64
Source: Bloomberg; NASDAQ 100
Equities – BSE Sensex
Min -52% -19% -12% -7% -2% 0% -3% -2% 0% 3% 5% 6% 5% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 9% 10% 10% 11% 13% 14%
Avg 18% 15% 14% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% Value
Max 82% 58% 49% 44% 43% 36% 26% 25% 23% 20% 19% 19% 18% 16% 17% 17% 19% 20% 16% 17% 17% 15% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% (x)
1990 34% 56% 49% 44% 38% 26% 22% 21% 16% 20% 16% 13% 12% 15% 15% 17% 18% 20% 14% 17% 17% 15% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 50.6
1991 82% 58% 47% 39% 24% 20% 20% 14% 19% 14% 11% 10% 14% 14% 16% 17% 19% 13% 16% 16% 14% 14% 14% 15% 14% 13% 14% 13% 14% 13% 37.8
1992 37% 32% 27% 13% 10% 11% 7% 13% 8% 6% 5% 10% 10% 12% 14% 16% 10% 13% 13% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 12% 11% 12% 11% 20.8
1993 28% 23% 6% 4% 7% 3% 10% 5% 2% 3% 8% 8% 10% 13% 15% 8% 12% 12% 10% 11% 10% 11% 11% 10% 11% 11% 11% 10% 15.1
1994 17% -4% -3% 2% -2% 7% 2% 0% 0% 6% 6% 9% 12% 14% 7% 11% 11% 9% 10% 10% 11% 10% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11.8
1995 -21% -11% -2% -6% 5% 0% -3% -2% 5% 5% 8% 11% 13% 7% 10% 11% 8% 9% 9% 10% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 9% 10.1
1996 -1% 8% -1% 13% 5% 1% 1% 8% 9% 12% 14% 17% 9% 13% 13% 11% 11% 11% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12.7
1997 19% 0% 18% 7% 1% 2% 10% 10% 13% 16% 19% 10% 14% 14% 11% 12% 12% 13% 12% 11% 12% 12% 12% 11% 12.8
1998 -16% 17% 3% -3% -2% 8% 9% 13% 16% 19% 9% 14% 14% 11% 12% 12% 13% 12% 11% 12% 12% 12% 11% 10.8
1999 64% 14% 2% 3% 14% 14% 17% 21% 23% 12% 17% 17% 13% 14% 14% 15% 13% 13% 14% 13% 13% 12% 13.0
2000 -21% -19% -12% 4% 6% 11% 16% 19% 8% 13% 14% 10% 11% 11% 12% 11% 10% 11% 11% 11% 10% 7.9
2001 -18% -8% 14% 14% 19% 23% 26% 12% 18% 18% 13% 14% 14% 15% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 12% 10.0
2002 4% 34% 26% 30% 33% 36% 17% 23% 23% 17% 18% 17% 18% 16% 15% 16% 15% 15% 14% 12.1
2003 73% 40% 41% 42% 43% 19% 26% 25% 18% 19% 18% 19% 17% 16% 17% 16% 16% 15% 11.7
2004 13% 27% 33% 37% 11% 20% 20% 13% 14% 14% 15% 13% 12% 13% 13% 13% 12% 6.8
2005 42% 45% 45% 10% 21% 21% 13% 14% 14% 15% 13% 12% 13% 13% 13% 12% 6.0
2006 47% 47% 1% 17% 17% 9% 11% 11% 13% 11% 10% 11% 11% 11% 10% 4.2
2007 47% -16% 8% 10% 2% 6% 6% 9% 7% 7% 9% 8% 9% 8% 2.9
2008 -52% -7% 0% -7% -1% 1% 4% 3% 3% 5% 5% 6% 5% 2.0
2009 81% 46% 17% 19% 17% 19% 15% 14% 15% 14% 14% 13% 4.1
2010 17% -6% 4% 5% 10% 7% 6% 9% 8% 9% 8% 2.3
2011 -25% -3% 1% 8% 5% 4% 8% 7% 8% 7% 1.9
2012 26% 17% 21% 14% 11% 14% 13% 13% 11% 2.6
2013 9% 19% 10% 8% 12% 11% 11% 10% 2.0
2014 30% 11% 8% 13% 11% 12% 10% 1.9
2015 -5% -2% 7% 7% 8% 6% 1.4
2016 2% 14% 11% 12% 9% 1.5
2017 28% 16% 16% 11% 1.5
2018 6% 10% 5% 1.2
2019 14% 5% 1.1
2020 -4% 1.0

Source: Bloomberg
Index 65
Equities – Nifty 500
Min -57% -19% -11% -9% -2% -1% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 5% 5% 7% 8% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14%
Avg 19% 16% 15% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 14% 14% Value
Max 98% 58% 50% 44% 47% 40% 30% 26% 26% 21% 21% 20% 19% 17% 18% 18% 20% 21% 17% 18% 17% 15% 16% 15% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 14% (x)
1990 34% 56% 50% 44% 38% 26% 22% 21% 16% 20% 16% 13% 12% 17% 17% 18% 19% 21% 15% 18% 17% 15% 16% 15% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 14% 56.9
1991 82% 58% 47% 39% 24% 20% 20% 14% 19% 14% 11% 11% 16% 16% 17% 18% 20% 14% 17% 17% 14% 15% 14% 15% 15% 14% 15% 14% 14% 13% 42.4
1992 37% 32% 27% 13% 10% 11% 7% 13% 8% 6% 6% 12% 12% 14% 15% 17% 11% 14% 14% 11% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 12% 23.3
1993 28% 23% 6% 4% 7% 3% 10% 5% 2% 3% 9% 10% 12% 13% 16% 9% 13% 13% 10% 11% 11% 12% 11% 11% 12% 11% 11% 11% 17.0
1994 17% -4% -3% 2% -2% 7% 2% 0% 1% 8% 9% 11% 12% 15% 8% 12% 12% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 10% 11% 11% 11% 10% 13.3
1995 -21% -11% -2% -6% 5% 0% -3% -1% 7% 8% 10% 12% 15% 7% 11% 12% 9% 10% 10% 11% 10% 10% 11% 10% 10% 10% 11.3
1996 -1% 8% -1% 13% 5% 1% 2% 11% 12% 14% 16% 19% 10% 14% 14% 11% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11% 14.3
1997 19% 0% 18% 7% 1% 3% 13% 13% 16% 17% 21% 11% 15% 15% 12% 13% 12% 14% 13% 12% 13% 13% 12% 12% 14.4
1998 -16% 17% 3% -3% 0% 12% 13% 15% 17% 21% 10% 15% 15% 11% 13% 12% 13% 13% 12% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12.1
1999 64% 14% 2% 4% 18% 18% 21% 22% 26% 13% 19% 18% 14% 15% 14% 16% 15% 14% 15% 14% 14% 13% 14.5
2000 -21% -19% -11% 9% 11% 15% 17% 22% 9% 15% 15% 11% 12% 11% 13% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11% 8.9
2001 -18% -5% 21% 20% 23% 25% 30% 13% 20% 19% 14% 15% 14% 16% 15% 14% 15% 14% 14% 13% 11.2
2002 10% 47% 37% 37% 36% 40% 18% 25% 24% 18% 19% 18% 19% 17% 17% 18% 16% 16% 15% 13.6
2003 98% 53% 47% 44% 47% 20% 28% 26% 19% 20% 18% 20% 18% 17% 18% 17% 16% 15% 12.4
2004 18% 27% 29% 37% 8% 19% 18% 11% 13% 12% 14% 13% 12% 14% 13% 12% 12% 6.3
2005 36% 35% 44% 6% 19% 18% 10% 13% 12% 14% 13% 12% 14% 12% 12% 11% 5.3
2006 34% 48% -2% 15% 15% 7% 10% 9% 12% 11% 10% 12% 11% 10% 10% 3.9
2007 63% -17% 10% 11% 2% 6% 6% 9% 8% 8% 10% 9% 9% 8% 2.9
2008 -57% -10% -3% -9% -2% -1% 3% 3% 3% 6% 5% 5% 5% 1.8
2009 89% 47% 16% 20% 16% 20% 17% 15% 17% 15% 14% 13% 4.2
2010 14% -9% 3% 3% 9% 8% 7% 10% 9% 9% 8% 2.2
2011 -27% -2% 0% 8% 6% 6% 10% 8% 8% 7% 1.9
2012 32% 17% 23% 17% 14% 18% 14% 13% 12% 2.7
2013 4% 19% 12% 10% 15% 12% 11% 9% 2.0
2014 38% 17% 12% 18% 13% 12% 10% 1.9
2015 -1% 2% 12% 8% 8% 6% 1.4
2016 4% 19% 11% 10% 8% 1.4
2017 36% 15% 12% 9% 1.4
2018 -3% 2% 0% 1.0
2019 8% 2% 1.0
2020 -3% 1.0
Analysis period from 1st Jan 1990 to 31st October 2020; Prior to 2002 – BSE Sensex has been used Index 66
Source: Bloomberg
Equities – Nifty Midcap 100
Min -59% -19% -8% -10% -2% -2% -3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 5% 5% 9% 10% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 15% 16%
Avg 22% 18% 17% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 16% 16% 16% 17% 17% 17% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 16% Value
Max 138% 73% 59% 51% 56% 49% 37% 32% 32% 26% 25% 23% 23% 22% 23% 22% 23% 24% 19% 20% 20% 17% 18% 17% 18% 18% 18% 18% 17% 16% 16% (x)
1990 34% 56% 50% 44% 38% 26% 22% 21% 16% 20% 16% 13% 13% 19% 20% 21% 21% 24% 17% 20% 20% 17% 18% 17% 18% 18% 17% 18% 17% 16% 16% 86.0
1991 82% 58% 47% 39% 24% 20% 20% 14% 19% 14% 11% 12% 18% 19% 20% 20% 23% 16% 19% 19% 16% 17% 16% 17% 17% 17% 18% 16% 15% 15% 64.0
1992 37% 32% 27% 13% 10% 11% 7% 13% 8% 6% 7% 14% 15% 16% 17% 20% 13% 16% 17% 14% 15% 14% 15% 15% 15% 16% 14% 14% 13% 35.2
1993 28% 23% 6% 4% 7% 3% 10% 5% 2% 4% 12% 13% 15% 16% 19% 11% 15% 15% 12% 14% 13% 14% 14% 14% 15% 13% 13% 12% 25.7
1994 17% -4% -3% 2% -2% 7% 2% 0% 2% 11% 12% 14% 15% 19% 10% 15% 15% 12% 13% 12% 14% 13% 13% 14% 13% 12% 12% 20.1
1995 -21% -11% -2% -6% 5% 0% -3% 0% 10% 12% 14% 15% 19% 10% 14% 15% 11% 13% 12% 14% 13% 13% 14% 13% 12% 12% 17.1
1996 -1% 8% -1% 13% 5% 1% 3% 15% 16% 18% 19% 23% 13% 17% 17% 14% 15% 14% 16% 15% 15% 16% 15% 14% 13% 21.6
1997 19% 0% 18% 7% 1% 4% 17% 18% 20% 21% 25% 14% 19% 19% 15% 16% 15% 17% 16% 16% 17% 15% 14% 14% 21.8
1998 -16% 17% 3% -3% 2% 17% 18% 20% 21% 26% 13% 19% 19% 14% 16% 14% 17% 16% 15% 17% 15% 14% 14% 18.3
1999 64% 14% 2% 7% 25% 25% 27% 27% 32% 17% 23% 22% 17% 19% 17% 19% 18% 18% 19% 17% 16% 15% 22.0
2000 -21% -19% -8% 17% 19% 21% 22% 28% 13% 19% 19% 14% 16% 14% 17% 16% 15% 17% 15% 14% 13% 13.4
2001 -18% 0% 33% 31% 32% 31% 37% 18% 25% 24% 18% 19% 17% 20% 19% 18% 20% 17% 16% 15% 16.9
2002 21% 70% 53% 48% 44% 49% 24% 32% 30% 22% 24% 21% 23% 22% 21% 22% 20% 18% 17% 20.6
2003 138% 73% 59% 51% 56% 25% 33% 31% 22% 24% 21% 23% 22% 21% 23% 20% 18% 17% 17.0
2004 25% 30% 30% 40% 9% 21% 21% 12% 15% 13% 16% 15% 15% 17% 14% 13% 12% 7.1
2005 35% 32% 46% 6% 20% 20% 11% 14% 12% 15% 15% 14% 16% 14% 12% 12% 5.7
2006 29% 51% -3% 17% 17% 7% 11% 9% 13% 13% 12% 15% 12% 11% 10% 4.2
2007 77% -15% 13% 14% 3% 9% 6% 12% 11% 11% 14% 11% 10% 9% 3.3
2008 -59% -10% -1% -10% -2% -2% 5% 5% 5% 9% 6% 5% 5% 1.9
2009 99% 54% 18% 23% 17% 22% 20% 18% 21% 17% 15% 14% 4.6
2010 19% -9% 5% 2% 11% 10% 10% 14% 10% 9% 8% 2.3
2011 -31% -2% -3% 9% 9% 8% 13% 9% 8% 7% 1.9
2012 39% 15% 27% 22% 19% 23% 17% 14% 12% 2.8
2013 -5% 22% 16% 14% 20% 13% 10% 9% 2.0
2014 56% 29% 21% 27% 17% 13% 12% 2.1
2015 6% 7% 19% 9% 6% 5% 1.4
2016 7% 26% 10% 6% 5% 1.3
2017 47% 12% 6% 5% 1.2
2018 -15% -10% -7% 0.8
2019 -4% -2% 1.0
2020 0% 1.0
Analysis period from 1st Jan 1990 to 31st October 2020; Prior to 2002 – BSE Sensex has been used
Index 67
Source: Bloomberg
Equities – Nifty Smallcap 100
Min -71% -26% -15% -17% -9% -9% -3% 0% 0% 4% 1% 0% 0% 5% 7% 10% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15%
Avg 24% 19% 17% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 16% 16% 16% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 14% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% Value
Max 138% 86% 78% 68% 72% 62% 47% 36% 39% 32% 31% 28% 24% 23% 23% 24% 27% 27% 20% 21% 21% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 19% 16% 16% 15% (x)
1990 34% 56% 50% 44% 38% 26% 22% 21% 16% 20% 16% 13% 13% 19% 21% 23% 24% 27% 18% 21% 21% 18% 18% 17% 18% 18% 17% 19% 16% 16% 15% 75.3
1991 82% 58% 47% 39% 24% 20% 20% 14% 19% 14% 11% 12% 18% 20% 23% 24% 27% 17% 20% 20% 17% 18% 16% 18% 17% 17% 18% 16% 15% 14% 56.0
1992 37% 32% 27% 13% 10% 11% 7% 13% 8% 6% 7% 14% 16% 19% 20% 24% 14% 18% 18% 14% 15% 14% 16% 15% 15% 16% 14% 13% 13% 30.8
1993 28% 23% 6% 4% 7% 3% 10% 5% 2% 4% 12% 15% 18% 19% 23% 12% 17% 17% 13% 14% 13% 15% 14% 14% 15% 13% 12% 12% 22.4
1994 17% -4% -3% 2% -2% 7% 2% 0% 2% 11% 14% 17% 19% 23% 11% 16% 16% 12% 14% 12% 14% 14% 13% 15% 13% 12% 11% 17.5
1995 -21% -11% -2% -6% 5% 0% -3% 0% 10% 13% 17% 19% 23% 11% 16% 16% 12% 13% 12% 14% 14% 13% 15% 12% 11% 11% 15.0
1996 -1% 8% -1% 13% 5% 1% 3% 15% 18% 22% 23% 28% 14% 19% 19% 15% 16% 14% 16% 16% 15% 17% 14% 13% 13% 18.9
1997 19% 0% 18% 7% 1% 4% 17% 20% 24% 26% 31% 15% 21% 20% 16% 17% 15% 17% 17% 16% 18% 15% 14% 13% 19.0
1998 -16% 17% 3% -3% 2% 17% 21% 25% 27% 32% 15% 21% 21% 15% 17% 15% 17% 16% 16% 17% 15% 13% 13% 16.0
1999 64% 14% 2% 7% 25% 28% 33% 34% 39% 19% 25% 24% 18% 20% 18% 20% 19% 18% 20% 17% 15% 14% 19.2
2000 -21% -19% -8% 17% 22% 28% 30% 36% 15% 22% 21% 15% 17% 15% 17% 16% 16% 18% 14% 13% 13% 11.7
2001 -18% 0% 33% 36% 41% 41% 47% 20% 27% 26% 19% 21% 18% 20% 19% 18% 20% 17% 15% 15% 14.8
2002 21% 70% 61% 61% 57% 62% 27% 35% 33% 24% 25% 22% 24% 23% 21% 23% 19% 17% 17% 18.0
2003 138% 86% 78% 68% 72% 28% 37% 34% 24% 25% 22% 24% 23% 21% 23% 19% 17% 16% 14.9
2004 45% 53% 49% 58% 13% 25% 24% 14% 17% 14% 17% 16% 15% 18% 14% 12% 12% 6.3
2005 62% 52% 63% 6% 21% 20% 10% 13% 11% 15% 14% 13% 16% 12% 10% 10% 4.3
2006 42% 63% -8% 12% 13% 4% 8% 6% 10% 10% 9% 13% 9% 7% 7% 2.7
2007 87% -26% 4% 7% -3% 3% 1% 7% 7% 6% 10% 6% 5% 5% 1.9
2008 -71% -22% -11% -17% -9% -9% -1% 0% 0% 5% 1% 0% 0% 1.0
2009 107% 56% 17% 22% 15% 21% 19% 17% 21% 14% 12% 11% 3.5
2010 18% -12% 2% -1% 9% 8% 7% 13% 7% 5% 5% 1.7
2011 -34% -5% -6% 6% 7% 6% 12% 6% 4% 4% 1.4
2012 37% 12% 25% 20% 16% 22% 13% 10% 9% 2.1
2013 -8% 19% 15% 12% 20% 10% 7% 6% 1.6
2014 55% 29% 19% 28% 14% 9% 8% 1.7
2015 7% 5% 20% 5% 2% 2% 1.1
2016 2% 27% 4% 1% 1% 1.0
2017 57% 6% 0% 0% 1.0
2018 -29% -20% -15% 0.6
2019 -10% -5% 0.9
2020 0% 1.0
Analysis period from 1st Jan 1990 to 31st October 2020; Prior to 2002 – BSE Sensex has been used Index 68
Source: Bloomberg
Debt – CRISIL Short Term Bond Fund Index
Min 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9%
Avg 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% Value
Max 13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% (x)
1990 9% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 13.1
1991 9% 10% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 12.0
1992 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 11.0
1993 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% 9.9
1994 13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8.8
1995 13% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7.8
1996 12% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 6.9
1997 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 6.2
1998 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 5.6
1999 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 5.0
2000 9% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 4.6
2001 9% 9% 8% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 4.2
2002 9% 7% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 3.9
2003 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 3.6
2004 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 3.4
2005 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 3.3
2006 5% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 3.2
2007 8% 9% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 3.0
2008 10% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 2.8
2009 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 2.5
2010 5% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 2.4
2011 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 9% 2.3
2012 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% 2.1
2013 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 9% 1.9
2014 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 9% 9% 1.8
2015 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 9% 1.6
2016 10% 8% 8% 8% 9% 1.5
2017 6% 6% 7% 8% 1.4
2018 7% 8% 9% 1.3
2019 10% 10% 1.2
2020 9% 1.1
Analysis period from 1st Jan 1990 to 31st October 2020; Prior to 2002 – SBI 1 Year FD rates has been used
Index 69
Source: ACE MF
Debt – CRISIL Composite Bond Fund Index
Min 0% 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9%
Avg 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% Value
Max 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% (x)
1990 9% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% 13.0
1991 9% 10% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% 11.9
1992 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% 10.9
1993 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9.8
1994 13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8.8
1995 13% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 11% 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7.8
1996 12% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 6.9
1997 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 6.1
1998 11% 10% 9% 9% 10% 10% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 8% 8% 5.5
1999 9% 9% 9% 10% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 5.0
2000 9% 9% 10% 10% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 4.6
2001 9% 11% 10% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 4.2
2002 13% 10% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 3.9
2003 8% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 3.4
2004 0% 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 3.2
2005 5% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 3.2
2006 4% 5% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 8% 3.1
2007 7% 8% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 2.9
2008 9% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 2.7
2009 4% 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 8% 8% 2.5
2010 5% 6% 7% 6% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8% 8% 9% 2.4
2011 7% 8% 7% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% 2.3
2012 9% 7% 9% 9% 10% 9% 8% 9% 9% 2.2
2013 4% 9% 9% 10% 9% 8% 9% 9% 2.0
2014 14% 11% 12% 10% 9% 9% 10% 1.9
2015 9% 11% 9% 8% 9% 9% 1.7
2016 13% 9% 8% 9% 9% 1.5
2017 5% 5% 7% 8% 1.4
2018 6% 8% 10% 1.3
2019 11% 12% 1.2
2020 11% 1.1
Analysis period from 1st Jan 1990 to 31st October 2020; Prior to 2002 – SBI 1 Year FD rates has been used Index 70
Source: ACE MF
Debt – CRISIL Gilt Index
Min -7% -2% -1% 2% 2% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Avg 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Value
Max 29% 24% 20% 20% 18% 19% 18% 17% 17% 16% 16% 16% 15% 15% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% (x)
1990 9% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 13% 13% 13% 13% 14% 15% 15% 13% 13% 12% 12% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 18.8
1991 9% 10% 11% 11% 12% 12% 14% 13% 14% 13% 15% 15% 15% 14% 13% 12% 12% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 17.3
1992 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 14% 14% 14% 14% 15% 16% 16% 14% 13% 13% 12% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 10% 11% 10% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 15.9
1993 12% 12% 13% 12% 15% 14% 15% 14% 16% 16% 16% 14% 13% 13% 12% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 10% 11% 10% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 14.3
1994 13% 13% 13% 16% 14% 15% 15% 16% 17% 16% 14% 13% 13% 12% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 12.7
1995 13% 12% 17% 15% 16% 15% 16% 17% 17% 14% 13% 13% 12% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11.3
1996 12% 19% 15% 16% 15% 17% 18% 17% 15% 13% 13% 12% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10.0
1997 26% 17% 18% 16% 18% 19% 18% 15% 14% 13% 12% 13% 12% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 8.9
1998 9% 14% 13% 16% 17% 17% 14% 12% 11% 11% 12% 11% 10% 9% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 7.1
1999 19% 15% 19% 20% 18% 14% 13% 12% 11% 13% 11% 10% 9% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 6.5
2000 12% 18% 20% 18% 13% 12% 11% 10% 12% 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 5.4
2001 25% 24% 20% 14% 12% 10% 10% 12% 10% 9% 8% 9% 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 4.9
2002 23% 18% 10% 8% 8% 8% 10% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 3.9
2003 14% 4% 4% 4% 5% 8% 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 3.2
2004 -4% 0% 1% 3% 7% 5% 5% 4% 5% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 2.8
2005 3% 4% 5% 10% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 2.9
2006 5% 6% 13% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 2.8
2007 6% 17% 8% 7% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 2.7
2008 29% 9% 7% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 2.5
2009 -7% -2% -1% 2% 2% 4% 4% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 2.0
2010 3% 3% 5% 4% 6% 6% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 2.1
2011 2% 6% 4% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 8% 2.0
2012 10% 5% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 2.0
2013 0% 7% 7% 9% 7% 7% 8% 8% 1.8
2014 14% 11% 12% 9% 9% 9% 9% 1.8
2015 8% 11% 7% 7% 8% 8% 1.6
2016 15% 7% 7% 8% 8% 1.5
2017 0% 3% 6% 6% 1.3
2018 6% 8% 9% 1.3
2019 11% 10% 1.2
2020 8% 1.1
Analysis period from 1st Jan 1990 to 31st October 2020; Prior to 2002 – SBI 1 Year FD rates has been used
Source: ACE MF Index 71
Cash – CRISIL Liquid Fund Index
Min 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Avg 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% Value
Max 12% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% (x)
1990 8% 8% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8.6
1991 9% 11% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7.9
1992 12% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7.3
1993 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6.5
1994 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 5.9
1995 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 5.5
1996 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 5.1
1997 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 4.6
1998 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 4.3
1999 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 4.1
2000 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 3.8
2001 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 3.6
2002 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 3.4
2003 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 3.2
2004 4% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 3.1
2005 5% 5% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 3.0
2006 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 2.8
2007 8% 8% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 2.7
2008 8% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 2.5
2009 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 2.3
2010 5% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 2.2
2011 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 2.1
2012 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 1.9
2013 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 1.8
2014 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 1.6
2015 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 1.5
2016 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 1.4
2017 7% 7% 7% 7% 1.3
2018 8% 7% 6% 1.2
2019 7% 6% 1.1
2020 4% 1.0
Analysis period from 1st Jan 1990 to 31st October 2020; Prior to 2002 – SBI 3 Month FD rates has been used
Source: ACE MF Index 72
Gold – Gold Spot Prices in USD
Min -28% -16% -14% -9% -7% -6% -5% -4% -4% -3% -3% -3% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5%
Avg 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Value
Max 31% 27% 24% 22% 22% 22% 20% 19% 20% 19% 18% 16% 15% 13% 12% 10% 10% 10% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% (x)
1990 -5% -6% -6% -1% -1% -1% -1% -4% -4% -3% -3% -3% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4.7
1991 -8% -7% 1% 0% 0% -1% -4% -3% -3% -3% -3% -1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4.9
1992 -5% 5% 3% 2% 1% -3% -3% -3% -3% -2% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% 6% 6% 8% 8% 8% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5.3
1993 17% 7% 5% 2% -3% -2% -2% -3% -2% 0% 2% 2% 3% 5% 6% 6% 7% 8% 8% 8% 6% 6% 5% 5% 6% 5% 6% 6% 5.6
1994 -2% 0% -2% -7% -6% -5% -5% -4% -1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 6% 6% 7% 8% 8% 8% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 4.8
1995 1% -2% -9% -7% -6% -6% -4% -1% 1% 1% 3% 4% 6% 6% 7% 9% 9% 9% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 4.9
1996 -5% -14% -9% -7% -7% -5% -2% 1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 7% 8% 9% 9% 9% 6% 6% 5% 5% 6% 5% 6% 7% 4.9
1997 -21% -11% -8% -7% -5% -1% 2% 2% 4% 6% 8% 8% 9% 10% 10% 10% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 5.1
1998 0% 0% -2% -1% 4% 6% 6% 8% 9% 11% 11% 12% 13% 13% 12% 9% 9% 7% 8% 8% 7% 8% 9% 6.5
1999 0% -3% -1% 5% 8% 7% 9% 10% 13% 12% 13% 14% 14% 13% 10% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 6.5
2000 -5% -2% 7% 10% 9% 10% 12% 14% 13% 14% 16% 15% 15% 11% 10% 8% 8% 9% 8% 9% 9% 6.5
2001 2% 13% 15% 13% 14% 15% 17% 16% 17% 18% 17% 16% 12% 11% 9% 9% 10% 9% 9% 10% 6.9
2002 25% 22% 16% 17% 18% 20% 18% 19% 20% 19% 18% 13% 12% 10% 10% 10% 9% 10% 11% 6.7
2003 19% 12% 14% 16% 19% 17% 18% 19% 18% 17% 12% 11% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 10% 5.4
2004 6% 12% 15% 19% 16% 18% 19% 18% 17% 11% 10% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8% 9% 4.5
2005 18% 21% 24% 19% 20% 22% 20% 18% 12% 10% 8% 8% 9% 8% 9% 10% 4.3
2006 23% 27% 19% 21% 22% 20% 18% 11% 10% 7% 8% 8% 7% 8% 9% 3.6
2007 31% 18% 20% 22% 20% 17% 9% 8% 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 8% 2.9
2008 6% 15% 19% 17% 15% 6% 5% 3% 4% 5% 4% 5% 7% 2.3
2009 24% 27% 21% 17% 6% 5% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 7% 2.1
2010 30% 19% 15% 2% 2% -1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 5% 1.7
2011 10% 9% -5% -4% -6% -4% -1% -1% 1% 3% 1.3
2012 7% -12% -9% -9% -6% -3% -3% 0% 2% 1.2
2013 -28% -16% -14% -9% -5% -4% -1% 1% 1.1
2014 -1% -6% -2% 2% 1% 4% 7% 1.6
2015 -10% -2% 3% 2% 5% 8% 1.6
2016 8% 11% 7% 9% 13% 1.8
2017 14% 6% 10% 14% 1.6
2018 -2% 8% 14% 1.4
2019 18% 23% 1.5
2020 24% 1.2

Source: Bloomberg Index 73
Gold – Gold Spot Prices in INR
Min -19% -10% -9% -4% -2% 0% 0% 1% 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10%
Avg 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10% Value
Max 31% 28% 25% 26% 24% 24% 23% 22% 20% 20% 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 10% (x)
1990 2% 16% 13% 16% 12% 12% 10% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 8% 7% 8% 9% 9% 10% 11% 11% 12% 12% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 20.6
1991 31% 18% 21% 15% 14% 11% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 8% 8% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 11% 12% 13% 12% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 20.1
1992 6% 16% 10% 11% 8% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 6% 6% 6% 7% 8% 8% 10% 10% 11% 12% 12% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 15.3
1993 27% 11% 12% 8% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 6% 6% 6% 7% 8% 8% 10% 10% 11% 12% 12% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 14.4
1994 -2% 5% 2% -2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 4% 4% 5% 7% 7% 9% 9% 10% 11% 11% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 11.3
1995 13% 5% -2% 0% 1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 8% 10% 10% 11% 12% 12% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 11.6
1996 -3% -9% -3% -2% -1% 0% 3% 4% 4% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 12% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10.2
1997 -14% -4% -2% -1% 0% 4% 5% 5% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 13% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10.6
1998 8% 5% 4% 4% 8% 9% 8% 9% 11% 11% 13% 13% 14% 15% 15% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 10% 11% 12% 12.3
1999 2% 2% 3% 8% 9% 8% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 16% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 10% 11% 12% 11.4
2000 1% 4% 10% 11% 9% 11% 12% 13% 15% 15% 16% 17% 17% 14% 13% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 11.1
2001 6% 15% 14% 11% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 17% 19% 18% 15% 13% 12% 12% 12% 11% 12% 13% 11.0
2002 24% 19% 12% 15% 16% 16% 18% 18% 19% 20% 19% 15% 14% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 10.4
2003 14% 7% 12% 14% 14% 17% 17% 18% 20% 19% 15% 13% 12% 12% 11% 11% 12% 13% 8.4
2004 1% 11% 14% 15% 18% 18% 19% 20% 19% 15% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 12% 13% 7.4
2005 22% 22% 20% 23% 22% 22% 23% 22% 16% 15% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 7.3
2006 21% 19% 23% 22% 22% 24% 22% 16% 14% 12% 12% 11% 11% 12% 13% 6.0
2007 17% 24% 22% 23% 24% 22% 15% 13% 11% 11% 10% 10% 11% 12% 4.9
2008 31% 25% 25% 26% 23% 15% 12% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 12% 4.2
2009 19% 21% 24% 21% 12% 10% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 10% 3.2
2010 25% 28% 22% 10% 8% 5% 6% 6% 6% 8% 10% 2.7
2011 31% 20% 5% 4% 2% 3% 4% 4% 6% 8% 2.2
2012 11% -5% -3% -4% -1% 0% 1% 3% 6% 1.7
2013 -19% -10% -9% -4% -2% 0% 2% 5% 1.5
2014 1% -3% 2% 3% 4% 6% 10% 1.9
2015 -6% 2% 4% 5% 8% 11% 1.9
2016 11% 9% 8% 11% 15% 2.0
2017 7% 7% 12% 16% 1.8
2018 8% 14% 20% 1.7
2019 21% 27% 1.6
2020 29% 1.3

Currency – USD to INR
Min -11% -6% -3% -4% -4% -3% -2% -1% -1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 5%
Avg 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% Value
Max 42% 26% 20% 17% 14% 13% 12% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% (x)
1990 7% 24% 20% 17% 13% 13% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4.4
1991 42% 26% 20% 15% 14% 12% 12% 11% 10% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4.1
1992 12% 11% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 2.9
1993 9% 4% 7% 5% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2.6
1994 0% 6% 4% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2.4
1995 12% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2.4
1996 2% 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 5% 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2.1
1997 9% 9% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 2% 3% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2.1
1998 8% 5% 6% 5% 4% 3% 1% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 1.9
1999 2% 5% 4% 3% 1% 0% 1% 1% -1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 1.7
2000 7% 5% 3% 1% 0% 1% 0% -1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 1.7
2001 3% 1% -1% -2% -1% -1% -2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1.6
2002 -1% -3% -3% -2% -2% -3% 0% 0% -1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1.5
2003 -5% -5% -2% -2% -4% 0% 0% -1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1.5
2004 -5% -1% -1% -4% 1% 0% 0% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 1.6
2005 4% 1% -3% 3% 1% 0% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 1.7
2006 -2% -6% 3% 1% 0% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 1.6
2007 -11% 5% 2% 0% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 3% 4% 4% 4% 1.7
2008 24% 9% 4% 8% 7% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 1.9
2009 -5% -4% 3% 3% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 4% 1.5
2010 -4% 7% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 4% 5% 4% 4% 1.6
2011 19% 11% 11% 9% 8% 7% 5% 6% 5% 5% 1.7
2012 4% 8% 6% 6% 5% 3% 4% 4% 4% 1.4
2013 12% 7% 6% 5% 3% 4% 4% 4% 1.4
2014 2% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2% 3% 1.2
2015 5% 4% 0% 3% 3% 3% 1.2
2016 3% -2% 2% 2% 2% 1.1
2017 -6% 1% 2% 2% 1.1
2018 9% 6% 5% 1.2
2019 2% 3% 1.1
2020 4% 1.0

Correlation Matrix
Nifty Nifty NASDA NASDA S&P S&P CRISIL CRISIL Currenc

Nifty CRISIL CRISIL Arbitrag Gold - Gold -
Sensex Nifty 50 Midcap Small Q 100 - Q 100 - 500 - 500 - Short Composi y - USD
500 Gilt Liquid e USD INR
150 Cap 250 USD INR USD INR Term te to INR
Sensex 1.00
Nifty 50 1.00 1.00
Nifty 500 0.99 0.99 1.00
Nifty Midcap 150 0.94 0.94 0.97 1.00
Nifty Small Cap
0.91 0.91 0.95 0.98 1.00
250
NASDAQ 100 -
0.29 0.29 0.28 0.26 0.26 1.00
USD
NASDAQ 100 -
0.24 0.24 0.23 0.21 0.20 0.94 1.00
INR
S&P 500 - USD 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.30 0.31 0.82 0.75 1.00
S&P 500 - INR 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.21 0.21 0.71 0.82 0.85 1.00
CRISIL Short Term 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.07 0.02 -0.01 0.00 -0.04 1.00
CRISIL Composite 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.10 0.02 -0.02 0.02 -0.05 0.88 1.00
CRISIL Gilt 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.04 0.00 -0.02 -0.03 -0.06 0.59 0.71 1.00
CRISIL Liquid -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.04 -0.05 -0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.03 0.52 0.32 0.16 1.00
Arbitrage -0.14 -0.13 -0.14 -0.15 -0.14 -0.09 -0.05 -0.09 -0.02 0.35 0.24 0.12 0.67 1.00
Gold - USD 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.09 -0.04 -0.10 -0.02 -0.12 -0.04 -0.02 -0.09 -0.12 -0.02 1.00
Gold - INR -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.12 -0.02 -0.13 0.04 -0.09 -0.08 -0.11 -0.07 0.05 0.87 1.00
Currency - USD to
-0.14 -0.14 -0.15 -0.16 -0.18 -0.18 0.16 -0.23 0.31 -0.09 -0.13 -0.05 0.08 0.14 -0.20 0.31 1.00
INR
Data as on 31st October 2020; Based on monthly returns from 1st Jan 1990
Index 76
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αLPHA STRATEGIST

December 2020 | Issue No. 96

Corporate India’s deleveraging of the balance sheet over the last

Despite Nifty-50 index levels at the all-time high, healthier

 Nifty-50 PAT in 2QFY21 were at all-time highs at INR1042b

 The Nifty Universe’s 2QFY21 EBITDA/PAT growth was above expectations.

Source: MOFSL; Estimates considered above are taken from MOFSL. 4

 Nifty FY20–22E free-float PAT expected to post 23% CAGR

Nifty-50 EPS (INR) FY20-22E: 21% CAGR

483 465 497

Source: MOFSL, India Charts, Data as on 30th Nov, 2020 9

Morgan Stanley and Consensus Real

G4 central banks’ Balance Sheet

AXJ Real GDP Growth 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E

Source: Kotak MF, Axis Capital Index 13

Source: CSO, Bloomberg Index 14

Source: Citi, ABSLAMC Index 15

Government Expenditures (%YoY) Government Tax Revenues (%YoY)

Source: CEIC, ABSLAMC Research Index 16

Daily E-way bill generation still strong in Nov’20 at 1.9m units

80.0 INR/USD Currency

Production linked 02 IBC, 2016

CPI inflation remains elevated….. ...due to higher food inflation

8.0 7.61 Fuel & Light 2.28

Inflation Expectations Of Professional Forecasters

 Consumer price index accelerated to 7.34% in

Source: MOSPI CPI Press Release Index 22

Real Rates (1-Yr AAA less CPI Inflation) (%)

Real Rates (1-Yr G-Sec less CPI Inflation) (%)

Source: Bloomberg, MOPWM Research, Data till 30th Nov, 2020 26

Dec-19 Nov-20 Dec-19 Nov-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

Top 5 15.5% 20.0% 4,472 6,456 34.8% 44.4%

6-10 7.3% 7.1% 2,003 2,209 -0.5% 10.3%

11-50 28.3% 26.5% 7,858 8,284 -5.0% 5.4%

51-100 15.5% 14.8% 4,362 4,682 -3.7% 7.3%

101-150 9.2% 8.8% 2,511 2,713 -3.8% 8.1%

151-200 6.4% 5.7% 1,793 1,785 -11.8% -0.4%

201-250 4.7% 4.7% 1,386 1,565 0.1% 12.9%

251-300 3.8% 3.8% 1,077 1,195 0.0% 11.0%

301-350 2.9% 2.6% 818 822 -9.6% 0.5%

351-400 2.4% 2.2% 687 701 -8.3% 2.7%

401-450 1.9% 1.5% 527 480 -20.7% -7.2%

451-500* 1.0% 0.7% 310 256 -12.1% 0.3%

USA IND (Figures are in %)

Indian equity market looks attractive compared to US equity market

Oil & Gas

 Weightage of banks in Nifty 50 has tripled from 9% in 2000 to 27% currently

Automobiles 4% 2% 4% 5% 9% 6% 8% 7% 3% 4% 5% 8% 9% 8% 9% 9% 10% 11% 10% 6% 6%

Nifty 50 Nifty Midcap 100 Nifty Smallcap 100 (Jan'20-Nov'20)

Nifty 50 Nifty Midcap 100 Nifty Smallcap 100 (Jan'18-Nov'20)

Source: MOPWM, Data as on 30th Nov 2020 Index 33

2003 I 2008 I 2013

Nifty Small Cap 100 5.9x 2.3x 3.3x

Risk-reward still in favour of Small/Mid cap strategies within Equity portfolios

 Financials, Industrials, Consumer

Temperature Gauge Index Cheap Zone Fair Zone Expensive Zone

Source: Capital Line, Internal Research, Data as of 4th Dec’20 Index 36

 Below grid is based on Temperature Gauge Index

Fair Invest Stay Invested Stay Invested 50% Staggered

Cheap Invest Invest Stay Invested 100% Lump sum

 Nov’20 witnessed a dichotomy in flows between FII and DII.

Monthly Institutional Flows (USD Bn) FII DII

Note: Bars represent year-to-date demand for each corresponding year