THE UNIVERSITY OF THE WEST INDIES

EXAMINATIONS OF April/May 2007

Code and Name of Course:ECON 1005 : Introduction to Statistics Paper:

Date and Time: Duration: 2 hrs

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES: This paper has pages and 5 questions.

Candidates are required to answer ALL Questions in Section 1 and TWO Questions in
Section 2.

Silent Cordless Non Programmable Calculators may be used.

Statistical Tables are provided.

SECTION 1 (50 marks)

The question in this Section is compulsory and MUST be attempted

Question 1.

A. The Verbal and Math scores of 200 students sitting the SEA Exam in 2006
were collected and analysed in Exhibit 1 below.

Exhibit 1
Variable N N* Mean SE Mean TrMean StDev Minimum Q1 Median
Verbal 200 0 595.65 5.18 595.57 73.21 361.00 547.00 586.00
Math 200 0 649.53 # 650.37 ## 441.00 605.00 649.00

Variable Q3 Maximum
Verbal 647.50 780.00
Math 700.00 800.00

i) Fill in the blanks denoted by # and ## [4]

ii) Assuming normality for both the verbal and math scores, state clearly
the values of the parameters of both distributions. [4]

iii) Assuming normality, calculate the probability that the Math scores will
lie in between 500 and 700. [5]

The University of the West Indies Course Code ECON 1005

DO NOT WRITE ON THE BACK OF THIS SHEET: USE ONE SIDE ONLY

INSTRUCTIONS: Each page must be signed by the Examiners and where applicable, the University
Examiner and/or the External Examiner. Where the examination does not require a University Examiner,
the form must be signed by the First and Second Examiners. Completed forms should be handed to the
Assistant Registrar (Examinations). The EXTERNAL EXAMINER is requested to sign the question paper
and return it with comments, if any, (on a separate sheet) , to the Assistant Registrar (Examinations).

……………………………………….. ……………………………………………..
First Examiner University Examiner

……………………………………….. ……………………………………………..
Second Examiner External Examiner (where applicable)

Date: 2007/……/… Date: 2007/……/……

 page 2

(Question 1 continues overleaf)

The University of the West Indies Course Code ECON 1005

DO NOT WRITE ON THE BACK OF THIS SHEET: USE ONE SIDE ONLY

INSTRUCTIONS: Each page must be signed by the Examiners and where applicable, the University
Examiner and/or the External Examiner. Where the examination does not require a University Examiner,
the form must be signed by the First and Second Examiners. Completed forms should be handed to the
Assistant Registrar (Examinations). The EXTERNAL EXAMINER is requested to sign the question paper
and return it with comments, if any, (on a separate sheet) , to the Assistant Registrar (Examinations).

……………………………………….. ……………………………………………..
First Examiner University Examiner

……………………………………….. ……………………………………………..
Second Examiner External Examiner (where applicable)

Date: 2007/……/… Date: 2007/……/……

 page 3

iv) Assuming normality, estimate the 70% percentile of the Verbal scores.
[6]

v) Calculate an 87% confidence interval for the mean Math score and
give an interpretation to the result obtained. [6]

vi) Estimate the proportion of students scoring less than 500 in the Verbal
score. [5]

vii) What proportion of students performed better in the Math than in the
Verbal tests? [10]

B. Further tests were attempted and the results are presented in Exhibit 2 below.

Exhibit 2
Test of mu = 650 vs not = 650
The assumed standard deviation = 73.21

Variable N Mean StDev SE Mean 95% CI Z P

Sample Verbal 90 589.344 73.702 7.717 (574.219, 604.470) $ 0.000

i) Explain what the researcher is trying to do in this Exhibit. [1]

ii) Calculate the significance level for this test. [1]

iii) Calculate the missing value $ [4]

iv) What should be the researcher’s conclusion? [1]

C. A final set of tests were undertaken and the results are shown in Exhibit 3
below.

Exhibit 3
Two-Sample T-Test and CI

Sample N Mean StDev SE Mean

1 200 605.0 73.7 5.2
2 200 550.0 73.7 5.2

Difference = mu (1) - mu (2)

Estimate for difference: 55.0000
95% CI for difference: (40.5110, 69.4890)
T-Test of difference = 0 (vs not =): T-Value = 7.46 P-Value =
0.000 DF = 398

i) Explain what the researcher is trying to do in this exhibit. [1]

ii) What should be the researcher’s conclusion? [2]

The University of the West Indies Course Code ECON 1005
DO NOT WRITE ON THE BACK OF THIS SHEET: USE ONE SIDE ONLY

INSTRUCTIONS: Each page must be signed by the Examiners and where applicable, the University
Examiner and/or the External Examiner. Where the examination does not require a University Examiner,
the form must be signed by the First and Second Examiners. Completed forms should be handed to the
Assistant Registrar (Examinations). The EXTERNAL EXAMINER is requested to sign the question paper
and return it with comments, if any, (on a separate sheet) , to the Assistant Registrar (Examinations).

……………………………………….. ……………………………………………..
First Examiner University Examiner

……………………………………….. ……………………………………………..
Second Examiner External Examiner (where applicable)

Date: 2007/……/… Date: 2007/……/……

 page 4

(paper continues overleaf)

SECTION 2 (50 marks)

This Section contains Four Questions worth 25 marks each. Candidates must
answer TWO questions from this Section.

Question 2.

a) A national survey indicates that 70% of the Trinidad and Tobago population are
dissatisfied with the restrictions on alcohol and music imposed for attendance at the
Cricket World Cup 2007 matches. If 12 people are selected at random and asked
their opinion, find the probability that :

i) Exactly 3 people disapprove of these restrictions [3]

ii) At most 10 people disapprove of these restrictions [4]

b) The runs scored in the first innings by opener Chris Gayle for the West Indies team
in test match cricket is normally distributed with a mean of 40 and a standard
deviation of 12. The scores he makes in the second inning are normally distributed
with a mean of 60 and standard deviation of 8. Performance in one inning is
unrelated to performance in the other. In what proportion of two-inning games will
his total score in both innings exceed 100? [10]

c) It is known that 15% of all homeowners pay a monthly mortgage of more than
$2500 U.S. dollars and that the standard deviation of the monthly mortgage
payments of all homeowners is $350 U.S. dollars. Suppose tht the monthly
mortgage payments of all homeowners have a normal distribution. What is the
mean monthly mortgage paid by all homeowners? [8]

(paper continues overleaf)

The University of the West Indies Course Code ECON 1005

DO NOT WRITE ON THE BACK OF THIS SHEET: USE ONE SIDE ONLY

INSTRUCTIONS: Each page must be signed by the Examiners and where applicable, the University
Examiner and/or the External Examiner. Where the examination does not require a University Examiner,
the form must be signed by the First and Second Examiners. Completed forms should be handed to the
Assistant Registrar (Examinations). The EXTERNAL EXAMINER is requested to sign the question paper
and return it with comments, if any, (on a separate sheet) , to the Assistant Registrar (Examinations).

……………………………………….. ……………………………………………..
First Examiner University Examiner

……………………………………….. ……………………………………………..
Second Examiner External Examiner (where applicable)

Date: 2007/……/… Date: 2007/……/……

 page 5

Question 3.

a) A statistician collected information on the number of runs scored in One

Day International matches by four top West Indian batsmen (Lara, Gayle,
Chanderpaul and Sarwan) on four famous West Indies cricket grounds
(Queens Park Oval, Sabina Park, Kensington Oval and the Antigua
Recreation Ground). The data was analysed and the results are shown
below.

Expected counts are printed below observed counts

Lara Gayle Chanderpaul Sarwan Total

Queens Park Oval 1276 ***** 382 360 2448
1036.13 559.69 ** 414.36

Sabina Park 404 356 214 313 1287

544.73 294.25 230.18 217.84

Kensington Oval 515 297 247 159 1218

515.53 278.47 217.84 206.17

Antigua Rec. Ground 58 134 109 69 370

156.61 84.59 66.17 62.63

Total 2253 1217 * 901 5323

*** + 30.050 + 7.116 + 7.132

36.358 + 12.960 + 1.137 + 41.564
0.001 + 1.233 + 3.905 + 10.790
62.086 + 28.856 + 27.717 + 0.648

Chi-Sq = ****, DF = ?, P-Value = ??

i) Carefully define the null and alternative hypotheses of the test

underlying the generation of the above table. [2]

ii) Fill in the gaps marked by '*', '**', '***', ‘****’, ‘?’ and ‘??’.
[14]

iii) What is the conclusion of the test? Give reasons for your answer.
[2]

iv) Discuss the limitations of the 2 test. [2]

b) It was determined that, in his one day international cricket career, West-
Indian batsman Ramnaresh Sarwan hits an average of 3 boundaries per
match. Find the probability that, in a given one day match, Sarwan will
hit at least 4 boundaries. [5]

The University of the West Indies Course Code ECON 1005

DO NOT WRITE ON THE BACK OF THIS SHEET: USE ONE SIDE ONLY

INSTRUCTIONS: Each page must be signed by the Examiners and where applicable, the University
Examiner and/or the External Examiner. Where the examination does not require a University Examiner,
the form must be signed by the First and Second Examiners. Completed forms should be handed to the
Assistant Registrar (Examinations). The EXTERNAL EXAMINER is requested to sign the question paper
and return it with comments, if any, (on a separate sheet) , to the Assistant Registrar (Examinations).

……………………………………….. ……………………………………………..
First Examiner University Examiner

……………………………………….. ……………………………………………..
Second Examiner External Examiner (where applicable)

Date: 2007/……/… Date: 2007/……/……

 page 6

(paper continues overleaf)

The University of the West Indies Course Code ECON 1005

DO NOT WRITE ON THE BACK OF THIS SHEET: USE ONE SIDE ONLY

INSTRUCTIONS: Each page must be signed by the Examiners and where applicable, the University
Examiner and/or the External Examiner. Where the examination does not require a University Examiner,
the form must be signed by the First and Second Examiners. Completed forms should be handed to the
Assistant Registrar (Examinations). The EXTERNAL EXAMINER is requested to sign the question paper
and return it with comments, if any, (on a separate sheet) , to the Assistant Registrar (Examinations).

……………………………………….. ……………………………………………..
First Examiner University Examiner

……………………………………….. ……………………………………………..
Second Examiner External Examiner (where applicable)

Date: 2007/……/… Date: 2007/……/……

 page 7

Question 4.

a) The following table gives the number of matches won per World Cup
tournaments by the West Indies cricket team since the tournament
inception in 1975.

No .of Matches Won Frequency

X f(X)
2 1
3 4
4 2
5 1
6 1

Develop the probability distribution table for X. [6]

b) What is the probability that the West Indies team won at least 2 matches
per tournament? [3]

c) The test scores for 300 students were entered into a computer, analysed
and stored in a file. Unfortunately, someone accidentally erased a major
portion of this file from the computer. The only information that survived
is that 30% of the scores were below 65 and 15% of the scores were above
90. Assuming that the scores are normally distributed, find their mean and
standard deviation. [12]

d) Two variables X and Y are said to have a strong positive correlation.

Explain, with an illustration, what this says about the relationship between
X and Y. [4]

Question 5.

a) A recent survey indicated that, due to the traffic restrictions around the Queens
Park Oval for the Cricket World Cup 2007 matches, 75% of commuters to town
reached to work late. Find the probability that, of the next 80 people interviewed:
i) At least 50 reached to work late [5]
ii) At most 56 reached to work late [5]

(Question 5 continues overleaf)

The University of the West Indies Course Code ECON 1005

DO NOT WRITE ON THE BACK OF THIS SHEET: USE ONE SIDE ONLY

INSTRUCTIONS: Each page must be signed by the Examiners and where applicable, the University
Examiner and/or the External Examiner. Where the examination does not require a University Examiner,
the form must be signed by the First and Second Examiners. Completed forms should be handed to the
Assistant Registrar (Examinations). The EXTERNAL EXAMINER is requested to sign the question paper
and return it with comments, if any, (on a separate sheet) , to the Assistant Registrar (Examinations).

……………………………………….. ……………………………………………..
First Examiner University Examiner

……………………………………….. ……………………………………………..
Second Examiner External Examiner (where applicable)

Date: 2007/……/… Date: 2007/……/……

 page 8

b) The following regression is fitted using annual time series data for HiTech
Appliance Company who currently operates 30 retail outlets across the Caribbean
region:
SALES =  +  POP +  UNEMP +  AAR

where POP = Population (in thousands), UNEMP = Percent Unemployed and AAR
= Annual Advertising Expense (in thousands of dollars). The data pertaining to the
existing outlets were processed using MINITAB and the following is an extract of
the output obtained:

The regression equation is

*********

Predictor Coef StDev

Constant -3.406 1.411
POP 0.50196 0.04253
UNEMP 0.663 0.1982
AAR 0.02442 0.01287

S = 1.229 R-sq = 87.7% R-sq(adj) = 86.3%

Analysis of Variance

Source DF SS MS F p
Regression 3 279.921 93.307 61.82 0.000
Error 26 39.245 1.509
Total 29 319.166

i) Write out the regression equation. [2]

ii) Is  significant at the 5% significance level? (hint: use the normal

distribution) [4]

iii) Is  significantly different from 0.6 at the 5% significance level? (hint:

use the normal distribution) [5]

iv) Perform the F test making sure to state the null and alternative
hypotheses. [2]

v) Give an interpretation to the term R-sq and comment on its value.

[2]

END OF QUESTION PAPER

The University of the West Indies Course Code ECON 1005

DO NOT WRITE ON THE BACK OF THIS SHEET: USE ONE SIDE ONLY

INSTRUCTIONS: Each page must be signed by the Examiners and where applicable, the University
Examiner and/or the External Examiner. Where the examination does not require a University Examiner,
the form must be signed by the First and Second Examiners. Completed forms should be handed to the
Assistant Registrar (Examinations). The EXTERNAL EXAMINER is requested to sign the question paper
and return it with comments, if any, (on a separate sheet) , to the Assistant Registrar (Examinations).

……………………………………….. ……………………………………………..
First Examiner University Examiner

……………………………………….. ……………………………………………..
Second Examiner External Examiner (where applicable)

Date: 2007/……/… Date: 2007/……/……