SEMESTER 2, 2019/2020

INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT

ECON 4740
SECTION 1

ISSUE
TRADE MEASURES ON FOOD PRODUCTS IN ASEAN COUNTRIES DURING COVID-19

LECTURER’S NAME
PROF. ROKIAH ALAVI

NAME
NABILAH BINTI MOHD ZA’IM

MATRIC NO
1625714

DATE OF SUBMISSION
21ST JULY 2020
 Table of Contents

Introduction 3
Literature Review 4
ASEAN Countries’ Trade Policy on Food Products 6
Trade Landscape during COVID-19 6
Cambodia 8
Indonesia 8
Myanmar 9
Philippines 10
Thailand 10
Vietnam 10
Effects 13
Global Supply Chain 13
Food Security 13
Possible Commodity Price Hike 14
Conclusion 15
References 16

2
 Introduction

COVID-19 or known as Corona Virus is a global pandemic that had first emerged in December

2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 14, 2020, the pandemic had reported 13.25 million cases and about half

a million deaths across the globe. This pandemic had shown significant effect on the world economy

especially in terms of world trade. Most government in the world had implemented restrictive movement

order to contain the virus. However, such initiatives had reported to adversely affect the international trade

and global supply chain.

The primary focus of this paper is on ASEAN Member States which comprises of top exports of

rice in the world namely Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, and Cambodia. The ASEAN region also consists

of major rice importers such as Malaysia and the Philippines. Protective trade policy on food and agriculture

such as export bans and export control policies were justified in accord to ensure sufficient domestic supply

and to guarantee food security in respective countries. The concerns of food shortage are not caused by an

actual decline in production but a disruption in the supply chain. According to Asia Nikkei Review in April,

"more than 200,000 to 500,000 tons of rice are now being held up at ports in Vietnam and Cambodia, and

these delayed shipments have caused supply tightness in some countries,". 1

Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to highlight on the importance of trade in food and agriculture

products in Southeast Asia, and the mechanism of trade measures implemented by various ASEAN

countries as a response to COVID-19. The first part of this paper will present on literature works on the

relationship between a pandemic and trade protectionism as well as its impact on world trade. The paper

will then explore on the trade policy landscape focusing on Southeast Asia countries, primarily on countries

imposing trade protectionism measures on food and agriculture. Lastly, this paper will analyze the effect of

such protectionism measures on neighboring countries and conclude with some policy recommendations.

1
Apornrath Phoonphongphiphat & Cliff Venzon (2020, April 15). Coronavirus exposes ASEAN divisions on rice
security. Asia Nikkei Review

3
 Literature Review

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the world has seen the plague of the Spanish flu. The Spanish

flu pandemic period started in 1918 and ended at some time around the first half of 1919. Boberg-Fazlic,

Lampe, Pedersen, & Sharp (2020) had studied on the effect of the pandemic on trade openness using import-

weighted average ad valorem tariff (AVE) and excess mortality. The effect of the pandemic was calculated

using excess mortality. The study was conducted using a difference-in-differences strategy to identify the

effect of excess deaths on the tariffs after the Spanish flu pandemic through estimation of the average

treatment effect of excess deaths on tariffs. Boberg-Fazlic, Lampe, Pedersen, & Sharp (2020) hypothesize

that the effect will start after the beginning of the first peak of the outbreak because it is likely that affected

countries took measures against the pandemic which would have led to a less open economy. The study

shows positive correlation between the number of excess deaths and the level of tariffs after 1918. It was

found that a tariff increase equal to 0.017 percent was caused by one percent change in the number of excess

deaths and one standard deviation change corresponded to an increase of 0.33 standard deviation in tariffs.

Boberg-Fazlic, Lampe, Pedersen, & Sharp (2020) concluded that a pandemic had a significant influence on

trade policy.

According to Barua (2020), the effect of the pandemic can be observed through five waves. The

first wave showcases an increase price level as well as level of trade for essential goods in the world market.

This is because an economy’s production and the global supply chain is highly correlated due to massive

globalization of production. The second wave reported limited or restricted international trade routes due

to port closures. The third wave reveals interruptions in international trade flows regarding fluctuations in

the volume of trade flows, changes in international trade prices and the divergence of trade flows from one

path or region to another. The next wave forecasts changes in global sourcing and production trends,

standard trade restrictions, and global trade competition. Some countries may place higher restrictions on

exports of goods that is crucial to COVID-19 while several countries may lift existing barriers to tariffs and

non-tariffs on imports of these products. Lastly, the last wave predicts an alteration in trade relation between

4
countries. Barua (2020) concluded that the pandemic is likely to introduce new patterns of world trade and

changes trade relations and globalization.

5
 ASEAN Countries’ Trade Policy on Food Products

Trade Landscape during COVID-19

At the beginning of the pandemic, many countries started to introduce trade restrictions, particularly

on exports to ensure domestic demand is sufficiently catered to. The trade measures were mostly

complemented by relaxing of restriction on imports of highly demanded goods, such as medicines, medical

supplies, and food. Trade measures implemented include liberalizing and restrictive measures. Amongst

ASEAN countries, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Viet Nam issued more than five trade measures,

followed by Myanmar and Philippines with four measures and Cambodia, Singapore, and Laos with at most

three measures.

Table 1: Types and number of measures related to COVID-19 by ASEAN DPs

Source: Chandra, Mujahid, & Mahyassari (2020)

6
 AMS 2 have imposed ten measures in terms of trade and trade-related measures targeted on food

products so far. Most of the measures are intended to avoid food insecurity in respective countries imposing

such restrictions, such as suspending the issuance of rice export permits or rice quantity export control.

There are also specific measures aimed at preventing the spread of COVID-19, such as a temporary ban on

imports of live animals from selected countries of origin.

Table 2: AMS trade in food products, 2018

Total food exports from ASEAN reached USD 55.6 billion in 2018 while food imports rose to USD

43.2 billion, representing 9.2 percent and 7.3 percent of total world food exports and imports, respectively.

Figure 1 shows the share of agriculture products on exports and imports of ASEAN countries in 2018.

Myanmar exports on agriculture products accounted for 28% of its total exports. Vietnam also reported a

share of 11.1% agricultural exports compared to 6.2% of its imports. More than half of ASEAN countries

have a higher share of exports in agriculture as compared to its imports.

2
AMS stands for ASEAN Member States

7
 Figure 1: Share of Agriculture Products to Total Exports and Total Imports (%) in AMS, 2018

Share of Agriculture Products to Total Exports and Total Imports (%) in AMS, 2018
30 28

25
19.3 18.4
20
13.3 14
15 12.3 12.5 11.6
10.5 11.1
8.9 Export
10 7.5 8.4 7.4
5.5 6.1 6.2 Import
5 3.3 3.6
0.2
0

Source: ASEAN Secretariat (2019)

Cambodia

The Prime Minister of Cambodia announced in a press conference on 30 March 2020 that the

country is suspending exports of white rice and milled price. The regulation was to come into force a week

later, on 5 April 2020. Cambodia’s government also imposed an export ban on fish on the same date.

According to some sources, no specific date was announced on the imposition on the ban of fish exports.

These measures were adopted as a mechanism to ensure local food security during the pandemic. On 13

May, Cambodia announced the resumption of rice exports and withdrew both exports ban of rice and fish

to be effective on the same date.

Indonesia

Indonesia had reported a price hike in food staples such as sugar, onions, and garlic due to the

COVID-19 pandemic. The price doubled and tripled for garlic and onion respectively. As a measure to

stabilize the price and ensure sufficient supply of these commodities, Indonesia’s Trade Ministry had

announced elimination of import certification requirements on imports of onion and garlic temporarily to

maintain the supply of these products. The liberalising measure was put into effect on 18 March 2020 and

8
lasted until 31 May 2020. The Jakarta Post reported that Trade Ministry Domestic Trade Director General

Suhanto said “up until 30 June, local companies can import without a permit according to Trade Ministerial

Regulation No. 27/2020” 3. This regulation allows firms to import garlic from foreign market without the

need to obtain a permit during the stated period.

Myanmar

The Government of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar through Ministry of Commerce

imposed a temporary suspension on issuance of rice export permits due to COVID-19 on 3 April 2020. The

export prohibition lasted for 28 days starting from 3 April 2020 until 1 May 2020. In May, the government

had announced the lifting of the export ban and replaced it with an export quota.

Table 3: Myanmar's Timeline on Imposition of Trade Measures

Date Description

April 3 Ministry of Commerce temporarily suspend the issuance of new rice export permits.

April 16 Department of Trade at Ministry of Commerce announced the requirement for rice and

broken rice exporters to return expired and unused export licenses by April 25.

April 28 The government set the rice export quota at 150,000 tonnes for May:

• 100,000 tonnes is for the overseas markets and 50,000 tonnes through border

trade to China.

• The quota will be shared equitably among exporters (112 companies).

• Exporters must sell 10% of export volumes to the government for food assistance.

• Includes head rice, broken rice, and sticky rice, but excludes parboiled rice.

May 1 The issuance of rice export permits resumed.

Source: ITC Market Map Access, WTO Secretariat, GTA

3
Dzulfiqar Fathur Rahman (2020, April 20). Agriculture Ministry recommends importing more garlic as demand
surges. The Jakarta Post.

9
 Philippines

The Governor of Bukidnon, Jose Maria Zubiri Jr. had prohibited exports of rice from sellers and

producer to parties outside the Bukidnon province. This measure was put into effect to ensure food security

within the province and was called “Bukidnon First” policy by prioritizing the supply for their own people.

The export ban was implemented on 27 March 2020 and was lifted on the same day. The lifting of the ban

was justified through commitments of the suppliers and producers to meet the demand of other provincial

governments.

Thailand

COVID 19 had induced panic buying of essential goods in Thailand. The country initially had been

supplying around 40 million of chicken eggs per day, mostly intended for domestic consumption. However,

due to the pandemic, the demand for chicken eggs had doubled and tripled causing shortage problems. As

a safeguard measure, the government had announced an export ban for seven days on bird eggs of fowls of

the species Gallus Domesticus starting from 26 March 2020 until 1 April 2020. The seven-day period was

deemed as the trial period to further observe and comprehend on the situation at that time. The ban was

subjected to an extension if the shortage problem continues to persist. Deputy Prime Minister and

Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit later announced that the export ban had to be extended for another

30 days commencing from 2 April 2020 to 30 April 2020. The Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives

and Department of Livestock Development was instructed to suspend all export permit for chicken eggs

during the said period.

Vietnam

With the concern of national food security during the pandemic, the Vietnamese Government had

started to halt signing of new rice exports contracts starting from 24 March 2020 until the end of the month.

The measure implemented was justified as a means to assess the sufficiency of domestic supplies. At the

end of March, the Ministry of Industry and Trade had proposed to lift the export ban but to replace it with
10
an export quota of 400,000 tonnes for the month of April and May to be effective on 11 April. Vietnam has

allowed the export of an additional 100,000 tonnes of rice for the month of April 2020 on 21 April which

accounts for exports prior to the implementation of the export ban. The government had agreed to resume

rice exports starting from 1 May 2020, thus lifting the imposition of rice export quota. The timeline of the

trade measures implemented by Myanmar is shown on Table 4.

Table 4: Vietnam's Timeline on Imposition of Trade Measures

Date Description

24 March Issuance of new rice exports suspended.

10 April The government lifted the export ban on rice and announced an export quota for rice of

400,000 tonnes for the month of April 2020 to be effective on 11 April 2020.

21 April For the month of April 2020, Vietnam has allowed additional exports of 100,000

tonnes of rice.

1 May The government had lifted the ban on export quota.

Source: ITC Market Map Access, WTO Secretariat, GTA

ASEAN as a region accounts for a large share of exporters in agriculture products primarily in rice

commodities. The pandemic had caused some uncertainties and instability in the supplies of these

commodities. The summary of the main details of the trade measures adopted by ASEAN Member States

can be presented in Table 5.

Table 5: Summary of Trade Measures on AMS during COVID 19

Types of Effects on Status as of

Countries Affected Products
Measures Trade 30 June 2020
Rice
 Broken rice
Export
Cambodia  Semi-milled or wholly Restrictive Terminated
prohibition
milled rice, whether
polished or glazed

11
 Fish live, fresh or chilled for
human consumption
 Live fish
 Fish, fresh or chilled,
excluding fish fillets and
other fish meat of heading
0304
Vegetables Certification
Indonesia  Onions and shallots requirements Liberalising Terminated
 Garlic suspension
Rice
 Rice in the husk (paddy or
rough) Export
 Husked (brown) rice prohibition
Myanmar Restrictive Terminated
 Broken rice
 Semi-milled or wholly Export quota
milled rice, whether
polished or glazed
Export
Philippines Rice Restrictive Terminated
prohibition
Birds' eggs, in shell, fresh,
preserved, or cooked Export
Thailand Restrictive Terminated
 Of fowls of the species prohibition
Gallus domesticus
Rice
 Rice in the husk (paddy or
rough) Export
 Husked (brown) rice prohibition
Vietnam Restrictive Terminated
 Broken rice
 Semi-milled or wholly Export quota
milled rice, whether or not
polished or glazed
Source: ITC Market Map Access, WTO Secretariat, GTA

12
 Effects

Global Supply Chain

Movement restrictions within and across countries can impede food-related logistic services,

interrupt entire food supply chain and impact food availability. The pandemic is already altering the entire

food system. Effects on the movement of agricultural labour and on the supply of inputs will soon present

significant challenges to food production, hence risking food security for all, especially those living in the

poor countries. Access to food will be negatively affected as the pandemic slows down economies, mostly

through income reductions and increase unemployment as well as availability of food in domestic markets.

The effect of disruptions in food supply caused by COVID-19 will be potentially greater for imports of

food dependent countries, with high levels of imports concentration is sourced from the top 50 most affected

countries. Developing countries which are heavily dependent on food imports would be particularly

susceptible to supply shocks in key staples such as cereals, meat, and fresh fruits, where most imports

originate from exporters that are most affected by COVID-19.

Food Security

Individuals were reported to start hoarding food and panic-buying essential supplies in many cities

around the world since the news of the pandemic broke. In view of the global food supply status, export

controls are unjustified and could possibly harm food security in importing countries. Export restrictions in

importer nations created anxiety among rice-importing ASEAN countries. The biggest rice importer in the

ASEAN region imported 2.9 million tonnes in 2019 and is predicted to import around 2.5 million tonnes

this year, mostly from Vietnam 4. The main threat to food security lies at the country level as the coronavirus

crisis worsens, interruptions in domestic food supply chains, shocks affecting food production, and loss of

earnings and remittances are causing high tensions and risks food security in many countries. The United

4
Apornrath Phoonphongphiphat & Cliff Venzon (2020, April 15). Coronavirus exposes ASEAN divisions on rice
security. Asia Nikkei Review

13
Nations World Food Programme has predicted that by the end of 2020, an estimated of 265 million people

could face serious food insecurity, an increase from 135 million people before the crisis, due to losses in

income and remittance. 5 Naturally, export restrictions eases burdens on domestic food markets but

contributed to further declines in supplies in the world market.

Possible Commodity Price Hike

In April, more than 20 governments have implemented some sort of food export restrictions (EUI-

GTA-WB, 2020). Fear of a prolonged stay-at-home order drove consumers to hoard food supplies. Even

though the demand curve for food supplies shifts, supply curve in the world market is inelastic since almost

all countries of the world are affected by the pandemic and the demand for essential goods is showing an

increase trend within every country. The world market foresees an increased level of trade for essential

goods at a higher price. As such, the price increase seems to have been attributable to export restrictions

imposed by multiple countries. According to Reuters, the price of rice rose from under $500 per tonne last

week to an average quote of $570 per tonne, the highest level since late April 2013. In the events of decrease

in global supply of food and decline in inventories, world prices would eventually rise as the gap with

global food demand widens.

5
Paul Anthem (2020, April 16). Risk of hunger pandemic as coronavirus set to almost double acute hunger by end
of 2020. World Food Programme Insight.

14
 Conclusion

It is evident that trade policies had been widely used in ASEAN Member States during the COVID-

19 pandemic as a protective measure to ensure food security. Trade policies in these countries primarily

focuses on restrictions on exports of food commodities to prioritize and protect the welfare of their citizens.

It was found that controls were mainly targeted on food staples. In this era of globalization, interdependence

between countries is has become increasingly prominent. The implementation of trade measures in

countries justifying it as a mechanism to safeguard domestic market may impose additional harm to

neighbouring countries and trading partners.

ASEAN was envisioned to constitute as a single market in the ASEAN Economic Community

(AEC). Therefore, we need to reassess and review non-tariff barriers on food products imposed within the

region because these commodities are considered as a necessity. Trade preferential agreements in the

ASEAN region such as ASEAN Free Trade Agreements (AFTA) had resulted in low to zero tariff rates but

are futile when such barriers like export bans and export quotas are implemented. The issue that lies with

non-tariff measures is on the uncertainty in period of implementations which further creates harm on

importing countries in search for alternative trading partners to cover for their supply shortage.

Other than that, countries are recommended to explore possible opportunities to trade and engage

with new trading partners in addition to existing ones. This helps to diversify a country’s trading portfolio

and create alternate path of supply chain. In relation this, countries are advised not to be too dependent on

a specific commodity in specific countries. This is because highly importing dependent countries tend to

be more vulnerable towards any changes in the trade policy implemented by these exporting countries

which could exacerbate the problem.

15
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