International Journal of Production Research

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Impact of COVID-19 on logistics systems and

disruptions in food supply chain

Sube Singh , Ramesh Kumar , Rohit Panchal & Manoj Kumar Tiwari

To cite this article: Sube Singh , Ramesh Kumar , Rohit Panchal & Manoj Kumar Tiwari (2020):
Impact of COVID-19 on logistics systems and disruptions in food supply chain, International Journal
of Production Research, DOI: 10.1080/00207543.2020.1792000

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2020.1792000

Published online: 29 Jul 2020.

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH
https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2020.1792000

Impact of COVID-19 on logistics systems and disruptions in food supply chain

Sube Singh a , Ramesh Kumar b , Rohit Panchal c and Manoj Kumar Tiwari a,d

a Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India; b Department of Industrial
Engineering and Manufacturing System, National Institute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE), Mumbai, India; c Department of Environmental
Engineering and Management, National Institute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE), Mumbai, India; d National Institute of Industrial Engineering
(NITIE), Mumbai, India

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

An outbreak of deadly COVID-19 virus has not only taken the lives of people but also severely crip- Received 24 April 2020
pled the economy. Due to strict lockdown, the manufacturing and logistics activities have been Accepted 29 June 2020
suspended, and it has affected the demand and supply of various products as a result of restrictions KEYWORDS
imposed on shopkeepers and retailers. Impacts of COVID-19 are observed ubiquitously in every type Supply chain disruption;
of units from different sectors. In this study, a simulation model of the public distribution system supply chain resilience; food
(PDS) network is developed with three different scenarios to demonstrate disruptions in the food supply chain; pandemic;
supply chain. Difficulties have been increased in matching supply and demand in a vast network of COVID-19; simulation
PDS because of changing scenarios with the growth of infected cases and recovery. This paper also
highlights the importance of a resilient supply chain during a pandemic. Our proposed simulation
model can help in developing a resilient and responsive food supply chain to match the varying
demand, and then further assist in providing decision-making support for rerouting the vehicles as
per travel restrictions in areas. Paper has been summarised with significant highlights and including
future research scope for developing a more robust food supply chain network.

1. Introduction By observing the gravity of health threats caused due

Supply chain disruptions can occur owing to human-
made disasters and natural calamities. Globally, sev-
eral instances occurred in the past such as the Gujarat
earthquake (2001), the tsunami in Japan (2011), the
Indian Ocean earthquake, and tsunami (2004) (Gou and
Lam 2019). Similarly, the outbreak of infectious disease,
Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has brought a
global tragedy not only for human lives, but also eco-
nomical activities like manufacturing operations, sup-
ply chain and logistics, and several other sectors (Dol-
gui, Ivanov, and Sokolov 2020; Golan, Jernegan, and
Linkov 2020; Haren and Simchi-Levi 2020; Hobbs 2020;
Ivanov 2020a, 2020c; Ivanov and Dolgui 2020a; Iyengar
et al. 2020; Linton and Vakil 2020; Remko 2020; Rowan
and Laffey 2020). COVID-19 pandemic has severely
impacted the automotive sector, tourism industry, avia-
tion industry, oil industry, construction industry, telecom
sector, food industry, and healthcare industry (Chamola
et al. 2020). Initial cases were reported in December 2019
and viewed as symptoms of pneumonia in the Wet Mar-
kets of Wuhan City in Hubei Province, China (Rothan
and Byrareddy 2020), and later named as COVID-19.
to high intensity of the virus, World Health Organi-
zation (WHO) announced a Public Health Emergency
of International Concern (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020
(Eurosurveillance Editorial Team 2020). In just a few
months of the outbreak of the virus, a substantial degree
of fear and anxiety has been observed among the peo-
ple, and it also causes a psychological impact on men-
tal health (WHO 2020c). Further, observing the effect
of unpredictable and uncontrolled infection with more
than 118,000 cases in 114 countries over the world, the
WHO designated this virus as a COVID-19 Pandemic
on 11 March 2020 (WHO 2020a). To date (June 15,
2020) 435,600 people have died all over the globe, and
it may also take many more lives as 7.9 million people
have tested positive and uninterrupted growth has been
observed in the number of infections of COVID-19. In
India, COVID-19 cases have reached 368,705 in the third
week of June 2020 (Dong, Du, and Gardner 2020). Grow-
ing cases cause immense pressure on the healthcare sup-
ply chain for an urgent need of personal protective equip-
ment (PPE), mask, and pharmaceuticals (Iyengar et al.
2020).

CONTACT Manoj Kumar Tiwari mkt09@hotmail.com Director Office, National Institute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE), Mumbai, Maharashtra
400087, India

© 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group

2 S. SINGH ET AL.
The focus of the governments of various countries
is to stop and control the community transmission of
COVID-19 such that severe damage can be restrained,
but a dynamic transmission of coronavirus infection
makes it an arduous task. Unavailability of clinical cure
and delay in developing the vaccine further makes the
situation worse than it has ever been in recent times.
Meanwhile, the treatment is symptomatic, and oxygen
therapy represents the primary treatment intervention
for patients having a severe infection. Mechanical ven-
tilation may be necessary in cases of respiratory failure
to provide oxygen therapy, and similarly, hemodynamic
support is essential for managing septic shock (Cascella
et al. 2020). The availability of such facilities is also lim-
ited, and it becomes enormously challenging to fulfil
the requirement, especially when a lockdown is enforced
around half of the globe. The lockdown was imposed in
several countries to control the fatalities and loss of physi-
cal health, and approximately 2.6 billion people have been
home quarantined in India, the U.S.A., South Africa,
Philippines, along with other European countries in the
month of March and April of the year 2020 (Laurent
2020). Lockdown gives rise to a shortage of labour force
and logistics disruptions eventually resulted in supply-
side shocks to the food supply chain. Moreover, it brings
a sudden surge in demand-side of food supply chains
due to the panic buying and hoarding behaviour of the
people (Hobbs 2020). Lockdown resembles an essential
decision in the short run to slow down the growth of
infection and restrict in a local transmission rather than
community spread. Besides it, lockdown severely crip-
pled the economy and carries the world at a screeching
halt scenario.
All sectors are connected through a complex network
of supply chains and logistics, but hardly any activities
evidenced during the COVID-19 pandemic. Through-
out the world, economic activities reached the lowest
point, and an economic recession and global financial cri-
sis have been predicted by the World Economic Forum
(WEF), World Bank, and International Monetary Fund
(Lucchese and Pianta 2020). Haren and Simchi-Levi
(2020) noticed a high impact of the COVID-19 out-
break on supply chain and manufacturing operations
and predicts the consequences of the global supply chain
during the second quarter of 2020. It brings forth the
need of a resilient supply chain and to seek innova-
tive approaches for supply chain recovery (Remko 2020).
The logistics system is critical in managing disruptions
and recovery of supply chain (Choi 2020). During the
pandemic, the essential items include food and medi-
cal equipment calling for resilient food and healthcare
supply chain. Weaknesses of the current global sup-
ply chain have been exposed resulted in revenue loss,
demand, and supply unfulfillment in COVID-19 (Lin-
ton and Vakil 2020). The situation is a learning lesson
for the adoption of resilience and robustness in supply
chain to help a shrinking economy (Currie et al. 2020;
Ivanov 2020c; Dolgui, Ivanov, and Sokolov 2020). In this
regard, a detailed analysis of the ongoing crisis as well as
necessary measures needs to be highlighted. Therefore,
we have discussed the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic
and subsequent follow-up of lockdown on the economy
and human lives by evaluating the existing studies and
reports released by several renowned organisations like
the WHO, the WEF, and the International Monetary
Fund (IMF). A model of the truck-drone synchronised
delivery system is also presented to provide medicine
and other essential items in case of high-rise buildings.
Furthermore, a simulation model of a supply chain net-
work of the public distribution system (PDS) is developed
by considering three different scenarios under pandemic
circumstances. A phase-wise plan is also discussed to
reopen supply chain and manufacturing activities that
connect various sectors to fulfil the sudden surge of
demand for medical facilities, food products, and essen-
tial items.
This article is structured as Section 2 provides details
of the relevant literature in this domain. Section 3 high-
lights COVID-19 impacts on the economy and elaborate
sector-wise consequences. Sections 4 presents a few mit-
igating strategies to run supply chain activities smoothly
to fulfil the crucial demands. Section 5 introduces a sim-
ulation model on the PDS, and the next section 6high-
lights results and insights of the presented work. Finally,
a conclusion is drawn from the study with future scope
recommendations followed by the references.
2. Literature review
In this section, several prominent studies on risk predic-
tion and uncertainty in supply chain are discussed that
have been conducted during an emergency or pandemic.
In recent times, researchers have introduced some sig-
nificant model-based studies to tackle COVID-19 prob-
lems. A conceptual model on spread of COVID-19 at
the Wuhan City of China formulated by considering
three scenarios based on individual reactions and gov-
ernment’s actions such as travel restriction, hospitali-
sation, and self-quarantine (Lin et al. 2020). Mehrotra
et al. (2020) presented a multi-period stochastic pro-
gramming model for allocating the inventory of ven-
tilator in the COVID-19 pandemic for the U.S.A. by
generating four different types of demand scenarios.
A mixed-integer programming (MIP) model has been
proposed for controlling the Ebola Virus diseases in
West Africa by considering the logistics issues over a

multi-period planning horizon to minimise infections
and fatalities within the constrained budget (Büyüktah-
takın, des-Bordes, and Kıbış 2018). Similarly, Liu et al.
(2019) outlined a mixed-integer non-linear program-
ming (MINLP) model to control the spread of the Swine
flu (H1N1) in China by optimally allocating the emer-
gency budget as per infected individuals and available
capacity. From the panorama of a global outbreak, Zlo-
jutro, Rey, and Gardner (2019) introduced a decision
support framework by developing a stochastic model
of multi-commodity network flow and passenger move-
ment through air travel that causes spread of the virus. In
the study, border control strategies have been established
at an immature stage by curbing the travel with needful
allocation of the outbreak control resources in a planned
manner.
Earlier, researchers have also performed numerous
simulations and optimisation models to conquer the
uncertainties in supply chain network. For example, as
supply chain model has been conceptualised for the pre-
disaster and post-disaster performance based on agility
and resilience (Altay et al. 2018). Ivanov and Dolgui
(2020a) discovered a framework of a digital supply chain
twin for managing the risks in pre, during, and post dis-
ruption stages. Similarly, Olivares-Aguila and Elmaraghy
(2020) proposed a dynamic model for evaluating the
service level of supply chain in distinct scenarios by
acknowledging partial and full disruptions. An analytical
model of a flexible production system has been developed
to examine the sequence of loading or unloading oper-
ation using autonomous mobile robots for enhancing
productivity and flexibility of the system. Study suggested
a strategic planning of the logistics challenges and sales
loss during strong, medium, and mild scenarios effect
(Fragapane et al. 2020).
In the perspective of the emerging technologies, Dol-
gui et al. (2020) established a smart contract system for
a logistics service provider. The model studies trade-
off between supply chain lead time and contract costs
practising an event-driven dynamic approach. Salem
and Haouari (2017) developed a three-echelon stochas-
tic optimisation model to design a supply chain net-
work based on uncertainties in expected demand and
supply. Kumar and Chandra (2010) proposed a sys-
tem dynamic model to analyse the impact of avian
influenza pandemic for a computer manufacturing com-
pany and suggests a strategic planning of the logistics
challenges and sales loss. Ivanov and Dolgui (2020b)
demonstrated a game-theoretic model to address the
intertwined supply network for meeting the demand
of society associated with food, communication, and
logistics. Researchers have also simulated supply chain
problem during pandemic COVID-19. Ivanov (2020b)
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH 3
expressed the global supply chain problem by simulating
the COVID-19 scenario to predict the impact on sup-
ply chain performance because of disruptions at tier-1
suppliers.
By analysing the literature, we have identified that
impact of the COVID-19 on manufacturing and sup-
ply chain activities are still not discussed enough, espe-
cially in the context of the PDS for food grain sup-
ply chain. Previously, researchers have demonstrated the
ideas of the emergency supply chain during disrup-
tions or epidemic, but the COVID-19 pandemic is one
of the rare predicaments that occurred in humankind’s
history, and it needs urgent attention to develop a
plan for boosting the economy. Therefore, in the pro-
posed work, a compendium of existing reports and
introduces conceptual models supported by essential
strategies to combat the dangerous infectious pan-
demic, COVID-19. A simulation-based study has also
been carried out to show the impact of COVID-19
on the PDS in fulfilling the requirement of needy
people.
3. COVID-19 economic impact
Since the outbreak of Corona Virus Diseases – 2019
(COVID-19), one of the intricate issues is to estimate the
expected damage of human health and the global econ-
omy, and it becomes much more complicated while con-
sidering individual parts of the world. Frequent changes
are noticed in developing the combating policies and
plans because of high growth in cases and ambiguous
data of infection rate, mortality rate, and other statis-
tics (Prichep 2020). Due to that, uncertainties have been
pointed in the concerning statistics and prediction of
losses during COVID-19. For example, the Center for
Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy (CDDEP) esti-
mated the infection in 300–400 million people in India
with COVID-19, but it is a gigantic figure as compared
to positive cases reported till June 2020 (CDDEP 2020).
As per existing data, R naught (R0) of the COVID-19 is
estimated between 1.4 and 6.4 with an average of approx-
imate 3.0, and that is higher than Ebola (2) but lesser than
Zika (3–6.6), Measles (11–18), and Human Immunod-
eficiency Virus (3.6–3.7) (Larsen et al. 2020). Callaway
et al. (2020) claimed that COVID-19 is less deadly than
the other outbreaks, like SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory
Syndrome), MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome),
and Ebola, but the transmission of the COVID-19 has
appeared easier than other infections. Social distance
has been recommended by the WHO to control the
spread among the public with the imposition of necessary
lockdown.
4 S. SINGH ET AL.
Lockdown cannot be considered as a permanent solu-
tion for a long-run from an economic and social perspec-
tive, especially when a large segment of the population
is dependent on daily wages for sustenance (Block et al.
2020). Striking consequences have been observed in the
U.S.A. and European Countries regarding the downfall
of the economy leading to severe job loss, within a few
days of lockdown. The International Labour Organiza-
tion (ILO) reported an initial estimation that almost 25
million jobs could be lost worldwide due to COVID-19,
and it may stretch to 40 Million (ILO 2020). In a report
released by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII),
52% of CEOs opinioned that 30–40% of employees will
lose their job in India post-lockdown (CII 2020). A col-
lective report of WHO and World Bank published in
September 2019, estimated an impact of pandemics on
the global GDP from 2.2 to 4.8% (GPMB 2019). Initial
predictions proposed that global cost may touch $4.1 tril-
lion due to COVID-19 (Hutt 2020). The IMF had asserted
that the impact of COVID-19 on the world economy will
be worse than the Great Depression of 1929. Expected
growth of the world GDP will be near −3.0%, much
lesser than 0.1% of the financial crisis of 2009 (Gopinath
2020). Carlsson-Szlezak, Reeves, and Swartz (2020) dis-
cussed the COVID-19 impacts on the global economy
and recognised it as a recession by making comparison
with diseases like SARS (2000), H3N2 Flu (1968), H2N2
Flu (1958), and Spanish Flu (1918). By understanding
the seriousness, the fight against COVID-19 should be
in two-fold, first, save people’s lives, and second, reform
economic activities without reaching the predicted reces-
sion. Impacts of the COVID-19 are globally visible in
all the sectors as highlighted in various reports released
by IMF, World Bank, International Labour Organization
(ILO), and the United Nations.
In India, approximately 500 million people rely on
agriculture and its related activities that contribute
approximately 15% of the GDP of the country (Shrestha
et al. 2020). For 2019–2020, the Department of Agri-
culture estimated 291.95 Million Metric Tonnes (MMT)
of food grain production which comes from principal
crops (PIB 2020b). The Food Corporation of India (FCI)
procures wheat and rice from grain markets to main-
tain the stock of the PDS. The food distribution system
has been severely affected during lockdown because of
the unavailability of labourers and truck operators, as
addressed in this paper by simulating a study on the PDS
network. Similarly, the MSME sector is also one of the
worst affected sectors during the COVID-19. In India,
approximately 111 million people work in 63.2 million
units (Singh, Mahanty, and Tiwari 2019), and they are
severely impacted because almost all the manufactur-
ing activities have been suspended. The MSME sector is
called as the backbone of a country’s economy (Villa and
Taurino 2018) because of a substantial contribution to the
GDP and employment generation. Furthermore, MSMEs
are hugely supported by the logistics and supply chain
sectors, but hardly any activities are seen during lock-
down (OECD 2020). A proposed model of the Inclusive
Manufacturing System can be a suitable way to empower
the MSMEs units that help in enhancing the integra-
tion with the adoption of emerging technologies (Singh,
Mahanty, and Tiwari 2019). Furthermore, during a lock-
down, all the nonessential travels nationally and interna-
tionally were banned throughout the world to restrain
the spread of COVID-19, and such travel restrictions
have harshly affected the aviation sector. Aviation sector
contributes USD 70 billion in the country’s GDP (IBEF
2020a), and an initial estimation says 25% shrinkage that
will impact 50 million employees (KPMG 2020). In India,
all domestic and international commercial passenger
flights have been suspended, and the planes grounded.
Another concerning issue is faced regarding food sup-
ply, and Currie et al. (2020) stated that demands in the
food sector have been changed for various food items
because of varying natures and disruptions in the deliv-
ery platform. In recent few years, an enormous amount
of money has been poured by the investors in the food
industry, and due to that immense growth of more than
10% yearly has been recorded because of entry of the
food chains and delivery platforms, like Zomato, Swiggy,
Dominos, and McDonald’s (Dhir 2019). The food indus-
try contributes to job creations (0.7 million) as well as the
GDP (USD 70 Billion). Therefore, severe impacts have
been observed in different sectors in the perspective of
job loss as well as a financial crisis because of constrained
demand and supply of various items. In such a difficult
time of pandemic, developing a resilient supply chain is
one of the essential steps for the survival of the manufac-
turing as well as logistics businesses to fulfil the customer
needs.
4. Supply chain mitigation strategies during a
pandemic
The survival of human beings relies on essential items
during the pandemic and that can be satisfied by appro-
priately utilising the crucial resources, like raw materials,
employees, and active logistics systems as shown in the
inner circle of Figure 1.
During the pandemic and screeching halt position,
priority of all the countries is to save human lives, but
a shortage of essential items like food, medicine, diag-
nostics equipment, clinical cure, and PPE has toughed
the fight against infection. These discussed items can
be fulfilled from the services of the primary sectors like

Figure 1. Sector-wise economic activities.
agriculture, healthcare, aviation, and railway, and fast-
moving consumer goods (FMCG). In the post-lockdown
period, the sectors shown in the outer circle of Figure 1
can be considered as economic boosters because of the
abundant contribution in GDP and employment genera-
tion, for examples, hospitality (7% of GDP and 42 million
jobs), automobiles (7% and 1.0 million), textiles (2% and
45 million), IT (7.7% and 4.2 million), and construction
(13% and 60.42 million) (IBEF 2020b). A linkage is pro-
vided by Micro, Small, Medium Enterprises (MSMEs),
and Large Enterprise (LEs) because of their ubiquitous
involvement in all the sectors. To overcome the disruptive
situation, the manufacturing systems and supply chain
should be agile and resilient by performing better and
efficiently.
Earlier, Vargo and Seville (2011) delivered a concep-
tual model by introducing crisis strategies to assist com-
panies in intensifying their resilience. Similarly, Singh
et al. (2019) proposed an ontology-based decision sup-
port framework for gaining resiliency in the supply chain
during disruption by applying Semantic Web Rule Lan-
guage (SWRL). Ivanov and Dolgui (2020b) discussed the
concept of viability in supply chain to think for long
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH 5
term impacts due to pandemics like COVD-19 and via-
bility is defined on three perspectives, sustainable prac-
tices, resiliency of supply chain, and agileness. Dam-
age induced during the COVID-19 pandemic can be
correlated with the concept of supply chain resilience
triangle (SCRT) (Bevilacqua, Ciarapica, and Marcucci
2017), as given in Figure 2.
In Figure 2, triangles A and B depict SCRT with the
severity of the extent of ‘a’ and ‘b’, respectively by consid-
ering the same damping rate because of a halt on supply
chain and logistics activities. Low and high resilience
Recovery of supply chain is related to high and low
resilience that resembles the recovery rate. Total dam-
age occurred during disruption period is evaluated by the
area of the triangle and it can be reduced by adopting
a high resilience strategy. An increment in the damping
time is caused due to lockdown extensions and similarly,
recovery time is affected with the adoption of the low
resilience a, and the area of the triangle is expanded by
both factors. Moreover, the size of the triangle, damp-
ing rate, and depth of the triangle varies with the sec-
tors/businesses during the same period and accordingly
takes time to regain normal state that appeared before
6 S. SINGH ET AL.
Figure 2. Supply chain resilience triangle in COVID-19 context (A and B).
disruptions. Therefore, a complete plan is needed to
resist against an imminent recession. In this regard, a
few immediate actions are discussed in the following
subsections.
4.1. Healthcare supply chain and medical
equipment distribution
Key strategies to avoid human to human transmission
of COVID-19 infection are via social distancing and use
of masks as well as sanitisers. There has been enormous
pressure on healthcare supply chains since the general
public requires masks and sanitisers. On the other hand,
PPE is required by healthcare staff as well. It caused a
shortage of supply of N-95 masks as the companies were
unable to meet the ever-increasing demand. Rowan and
Laffey (2020) deliberated a critical shortage of supply
chain planning for personal and protective equipment
(PPE) during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Republic
of Ireland. Jamieson and Kellerman (2016) studied the
challenges of public health system for the HIV Pandemic
in global and local supply chain. The global shortage of
ventilators and PPEs has become a flourishing concern as
there is increase in infections across the world. In India,
the monopoly of a single government-owned agency is
the bottleneck in the purchasing process for PPE. Initia-
tives need to be bolstered by developing efficient trans-
portation for medical equipment, medicines, and relief
material. Furthermore, WHO has recommended strate-
gies to optimise the availability of PPEs by using them
appropriately, better supply chain coordination, and min-
imise the waste (WHO 2020b). In India, enormous needs
have been forecasted as per the growing cases, for exam-
ple, one million ventilators, 500 million testing kits, one
million oxygen cylinders, 30 million N95 masks, and
25 million PPE kits (PIB 2020a). Automotive manufac-
turers are shifted towards making medical equipment
to meet such an enormous demand (Betti and Heinz-
mann 2020). Therefore, surprising transformations have
been noticed in Indian healthcare supply chain during
the critical time, for example, ventilators, testing kits, and
oxygen cylinders are produced by automobiles manufac-
turers; PPE, masks, gloves, and hospital furnishing prod-
ucts are made by textile and fashion industry; sanitisers,
cleansers, and oxygen are provided by chemical facto-
ries; and hospitals beds are developed by transforming
train bogies.
4.2. Truck-drones delivery system for quarantine
zone
Quarantine and isolation are the primary preventions
used to break human to human transmission of COVID-
19 as declared by the National Centre for Disease Control
(NCDC 2020). The curve between the number of cases
and time can be flattened with the support of the public
to stay in isolation and self-quarantine. By developing a
model, Hellewell et al. (2020) suggested that isolation of
infected cases and efficient tracing of their contacts can
control the COVID-19 outbreak within three months.
However, the success of following the lockdown depends
on the initial number of cases (Niud and Xu 2020). Dur-
ing quarantine, a concerning issue of delivering essential
items in severely affected zones has been observed, espe-
cially when the people stay in high-rise buildings. It has
happened mainly in crowded and most affected cities like
New York in the U.S.A., and Mumbai and Delhi in India.
Therefore, in this paper, a truck-drones synchronised

Figure 3. Coordination of drones and delivery trucks for last-mile delivery.
delivery system is recommended that can be utilised in
highly infected regions, as it helps in maintaining the
social distance and also drastically reduces the delivery
time to fulfil demand (Chamola et al. 2020). In the lit-
erature, several other studies have been presented for
scheduling the drone delivery system, for example, Jeong,
Song, and Lee (2019) formulated a MIP model of a truck-
drone hybrid delivery system by extending the vehicle
routing problem with the addition of parcel weight on
the drone and restrict flying areas. Similarly, Murray and
Chu (2015) presented a mixed-integer linear program-
ming model for optimal routing and scheduling of the
parcel delivery with the drone, and a heuristic approach
is coded in Python to get the solution.
Figure 3 presents the synchronisation of truck and
drones to facilitate last-mile delivery in the highly
infected regions known as hot zones. For the supply of
essential items, food and medicine in a hot zone, one
delivery truck with two types of drones is needed as
shown in Figure 3. Drone-A (DA) is committed to food
items and Drone-B (DB) for medicines. Drones have
been assigned for respective deliveries to customers on
a scheduled path. Customers, C1, C4, C5, and C6 are
served by Drone-A as per their food requirements, and
Drone-B is assigned for the medicine to customers, C2,
C3, C6, and C7. Customers’ flexibility of ordering both
types of items has also been incorporated in the presented
model, for example, C6. Delivery truck and drones are
supposed to serve all the assigned customers with prede-
fined time windows in a synchronised manner (Das et al.
2020). The objective of the model is to fulfil the on-time
delivery of food and medicine to customers who stay in a
quarantined place by minimising the overall operational
costs. Customers are served one by one in scheduled
time windows through drones that have been assigned
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH 7
as per their demands. Constraints associated with capac-
ity, delivery time, time window, and distance need to
be considered like other optimisation and vehicle rout-
ing problems. Drone sub-tours, delivery charges, rout-
ing cost, and penalty due to untimely deliveries are the
operational and associated costs. Furthermore, the fulfil-
ment of demand in infected areas is ensured by capacity
of delivery truck and drones. A pictorial representation
of paths is depicted in Figure 3 as for TA-C1-C4-C6-
C5-TA and TA-C6-C2-C3-C7-TA for Drone-A (DA) and
Drone-B (DB), respectively. Meanwhile, Truck-A (TA) is
also moved from location L1 to L2 by balancing travel
time with both drones. Therefore, the presented model
can be helpful in achieving the on-time delivery with-
out any physical contact with customers resided in highly
infected zones.
4.3. Food supply chain
All types of food supply chains have been severely
affected during COVID-19 pandemic, for example, fresh
vegetables, fruits, bakery items, perishable goods, and
finally, food grains (Ivanov and Dolgui 2020a; Scheibe
and Blackhurst 2018). Scarcity of food items is unavoid-
able in such a strict lockdown where most of the logistics
activities had been stopped. Previously, Manning, Baines,
and Chadd (2005) addressed the impact of biological
infections in the food supply chain on a regional basis,
national and international food contamination prob-
lems as food terrorism. Due to the threat of getting
infected, the people have been prevented from ordering
the food from an online platform like Zomato and Swiggy
(Narayanan et al. 2020).
For the survival of people, PDS is run by the Govern-
ment of India to ensure food security to approximately
8 S. SINGH ET AL.
Figure 4. Supply chain network of public distribution system.
800 million people from weaker section at a reasonable
price, especially wheat and rice, the main ingredients of
the Indian diet. On average, 40–42 million tons of food
grain is transported in a year by the FCI (2020). Surplus
states played a significant role in fulfilling the demand
of deficit states. For wheat, Punjab, Haryana, and Mad-
hya Pradesh and in rice procurement, Punjab, Haryana,
Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha
are the surplus states (Mogale et al. 2017). The entire
supply chain network of PDSs is constituted by farmers,
grain markets (mandi), central warehouse (CW), state
warehouse (SW), district-level warehouse (DW), and fair
price shop (FPS) as depicted in Figure 4 (Mogale et al.
2019b).
The food grains are distributed to needy people (cus-
tomers) at fair price shops (FPS) located in rural as well
as in urban areas. In lockdown, several types of con-
cerns related to transportation services (trucks and local
transport), like absence of loading and unloading labour
and shutdown of offices are faced by the PDS network.
The impact of lockdown can be visualised from opera-
tion of 10% trucks out of 1.4 million (medium and long
haulage), and similar is the case for light commercial
vehicles (Nandi 2020). Another issue of facility failure is
caused due to high infection in some of the areas that have
been declared as red or containment zones. Difficulties
have been developed in achieving the desired purpose of
supply chain because of uncertainties in vehicle availabil-
ity and labour shortage. Furthermore, the evaluation of
diverted routes has been converted as a concerning issue
because of changing scenario at warehouse and logistics
activities. Therefore, a simulation model of the PDS is
demonstrated in this paper under a pandemic situation
by considering three different scenarios, as given in the
subsequent section.
5. Simulation model of public distribution
system during a pandemic
In pandemic and strict lockdown period, numerous
challenges are faced by the PDS network at opera-
tional and transportation levels due to travel restric-
tions and labour shortage in the COVID-19 pandemic.
In this study, failure of supply from a PDS facil-
ity because of strict lockdown is considered that fur-
ther causes shortages in fulfilling demand at the cus-
tomer end. Data have been reproduced from a real-
life PDS network of a small part of a north Indian
state to carry out this work. In the developed model,
two central warehouses (CW), three state warehouses

Figure 5. Simulated network of public distribution system.
(SW), six district-level warehouses (DW), and 60 fair
price shops (FPS) have been considered as depicted in
Figure 5, Three varieties of trucks were being used
based on their capacities and speed, for example, Truck1
(four tonnes capacity and 50 km/hour speed), Truck2
(eight tonnes capacity and 45 km/hour speed), and Truck3
(12 tonnes capacity and 50 km/hour speed). In the pro-
posed simulation model, supply of rice and wheat are
only examined, otherwise, sugar, tea, mustard oil, and
kerosene are also necessary items served by the PDS
(Minten, Reardon, and Sutradhar 2010). Determinis-
tic demand of fair price shop, adoption of min–max
inventory policy at the warehouse, and unlimited sup-
ply from the central warehouses, are a few assump-
tions made to carry out this study. Throughout the net-
work, transportation cost is constant as 0.29 USD/km-kg
(Mogale et al. 2019a), and it is assumed that no dis-
ruption occurs during transportation activities. Earlier,
Stewart and Ivanov (2019) proposed a framework for
analysing risk and disruption by studying a dynamic
system in the humanitarian supply chain that considers
saving lives and relieve suffering by delivering food, shel-
ter, medicine, fuel, and other supplies to beneficiaries.
Kumar et al. (2020) described several simulation tech-
niques that address uncertainty in the complex nature
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH 9
of the problem. Therefore, Any Logistix software has
been utilised to simulate the proposed model for cap-
turing supply chain disruptions (Timperio et al. 2019;
Kinra et al. 2019). Simulation of the designed problem
was run for a period of six months by varying scenarios.
In this simulation, three scenarios have been developed
to demonstrate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
and subsequent lockdown on supply chain disruptions of
PDS network as mentioned below:
Scenario-I: Normal operation of the PDS
Scenario-II: PDS network during shutdown of a facility
in pandemic
Scenario-III: Backup facility to attain the required ser-
vice level during disruptions
These developed scenarios are defined by different events
in the simulation model as depicted in Figure 6. Initially,
backup warehouse was deactivated because the PDS net-
work worked smoothly without any disruption as shown
in Figure 6(a). In Figure 6(b), the occurrence of disrup-
tions has been perceived in the area of CW1 because of
the high intensity of cases of COVID-19 and declared as a
hot zone. Operational and logistics disruptions have been
faced in restricted zones because of labour shortage. Such
10 S. SINGH ET AL.
Figure 6. Events occurred during pandemic in PDS network, (a) Scenario-I, (b) Scenario-II, (c) Scenario-III.
suspension is depicted in Figure 6(b) when the probabil-
ity of the event becomes 1.0 in the third row. To achieve
the targeted demand, backup facility needs to be activated
and thus the probability changed from 0 to 1.0 in the
fourth row of simulated events, as shown in Figure 6 (c).
During experimentation, 10 replications are developed
for each scenario and evaluated the impact of COVID-
19 on PDS Supply Chain in terms of expected lead time
(ELT) service level. In such a troublesome time of a pan-
demic, maintaining the ELT service level is a top priority
of the PDS to fulfil the need of the people relying on this
scheme. ELT service level for a product is calculated by
using the formula developed from the literature (Ivanov
2018, 2019, 2020a, 2020b), as given in Equation (1):
 p supply chain performance of PDS is expected lead time.
D∇ko
k o
ELTSL(p) =   p  p ∀p
D∇ko + DΔko
k o k o
where P – Set of products K – Set of customers O – Num-
ber of total orders p – Product, p ∈ P k – Customer, k ∈ K
o – Order, o = 1, . . . , O ELTSL(p) – Expected lead time
p
service level for the product, p D∇ko – Demand fulfilment
of product, p within ELT for an order, o by the customer,
p
k DΔko – Demand is not fulfilled of product, p within ELT
for order, o by the customer, k
6. Results and discussions
The present study focuses on mitigation strategies to
manage disruptions in the logistics system of food and
healthcare supply chain. Disruptions and the mitigating
role of a backup facility in the food supply chain dur-
ing pandemic have been demonstrated using the case of
the PDS in India. Key performance indicator to evaluate
Results of the simulation model under three different
(1) scenarios have been discussed in this section.
As shown in Figure 7(a), the ELT service level of rice
and wheat were 93% and 96% in scenario-I. It depicts
that in a disruption-free scenario the PDS operated with
stable lead time and balanced the inventory. Operation

Figure 7. ELT Service Level for each product (a) Scenario-I, (b) Scenario-II, and (c) Scenario-III.
of the PDS in scenario-I made a profit of USD 34,880
by generating a revenue of USD 261,850 and incurred
the transportation cost of USD 70,982 with an average
of USD 34.82/ton as per fulfilment received by the cus-
tomer. In Scenario-II, development of the COVID-19 in
hot zone causes shutdown of a central warehouse (CW1)
as shown in Figure 7(b). Consequently, there has been a
decline in the ELT service level of wheat and rice to 62%
and 59%, respectively.
A significant drop in ELTSL is detected due to the
unfilled demands of customers allied to the central ware-
house (CW1) through state warehouse (SW1), and that
are followed by the two district-level warehouses, DW1
and DW2.
Other key performance indicators of supply chain per-
formance are profit, revenue, and total cost (Ivanov 2019).
We have obtained similar results for the reduction of the
total cost in scenario-II because lesser quantities were
delivered to customers, and it is directly related to the
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH 11
transportation cost as depicted by Figure 8(b). Therefore,
a significant reduction has been noticed in total revenue
generation because of lesser demand fulfilment, and it is
calculated as USD 165,435 by making a profit of USD
27,642. The PDS incurred an almost similar transporta-
tion cost of USD 32.37/ton may be due to the accom-
plishment of the same demand of a shortened network.
Shortage of supply is fulfilled by the backup warehouse
(BW1) that would become operational after suspension
of the central warehouse (CW1). BW1 is a partial dummy
created at the central warehouse (CW2) for simulating
the proposed model. Initially, BW1 was not operational,
and it can be observed in Figure 6(a) where probabil-
ities in the first two rows are 1.0. With utilisation of
a backup warehouse (BW1), the ELT service level for
rice and wheat have been significantly improved to 85%
and 92%, respectively, as represented by Figure 7(c).
But, a quite downfall is recorded in the ELT service
level as compared to Scenario-I because more distance
12 S. SINGH ET AL.

Figure 8. Revenue and total cost (a) Scenario-I, (b) Scenario-II, and (c) Scenario-III.

needs to be covered from BW1 to SW1 and SW2 using 7. Conclusion and future scope
Truck3. In scenario-III, an observation has been made
Natural calamities, threatening diseases, or political
that transportation cost has increased to USD 42.65/ton
issues are the key factors that cause supply chain disrup-
due to an extended and integrated network. Otherwise,
tions as observed in the past. But the outbreak of COVID-
revenue generations in scenario-I and scenario-III, are
19 pandemic has been reported as an exceptional case
almost same with the fulfilment of customer’s demand,
that having a pernicious effect globally because of the
as depicted in Figure 8(a,c).
suspension of almost all the manufacturing and logis-
The scope of this paper is to demonstrate a simu-
tics activities. In this paper, an action plan has been
lation of the PDS supply chain network and impact of
proposed to tackle pandemic based disruptions for ful-
disruption on final delivery to the needy people dur-
filling the need of food grains, ingredients, medicine,
ing the COVID-19 pandemic. Simulation model can
PPE, and other essential items. A concept of the truck-
be further extended by creating several other scenar-
drones synchronised delivery system has been described
ios with consideration of failure of individual facility,
to reach out to the customer resided in high-rise build-
loading and unloading operations, and unavailability
ings located in severely infected areas. Disruptions in the
of vehicles and labourers. In the presented work, the
food grain supply chain of the PDS have also been stud-
adoption of a truck-drone synchronised delivery sys-
ied that happened because of not functioning of source
tem has also been emphasised for food and essential
warehouse due to the dearth of labour and truck drivers
medicine services that can be offered in the highly
in infected regions. Therefore, a simulated study is per-
restricted zones. Furthermore, the changing scenario
formed by designing three different scenarios of the PDS
of healthcare supply chain and manufacturers have
to show the impact of the pandemic and its reviving strat-
been discussed to match high demand for the required
egy. Result showed the integration of warehouses helps
items.

in achieving demand fulfilment from a backup ware-
house during disruptions at an allotted warehouse. The
focus of this paper is confined to investigate COVID-
19 situations by emphasising essential activities of sup-
ply chain and logistics systems, especially in case of the
public distribution network. In future studies, a detailed
model of public distribution network and food supply
chain can be developed by incorporating multiple factors
and challenges. Furthermore, mathematical and statisti-
cal approaches can be adopted to deliver rigour-based
analysis to capture issues of the food supply chain, man-
ufacturing of essential items, and shortages of healthcare
equipment as future scope for the researchers of this
domain to combat the pandemic concerns.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Acknowledgements
We sincerely express thanks to the Editor in Chief and two
learned referees for providing constructive comments leading
to quality improvement in earlier versions of the manuscript.
We also acknowledge the support from the E-Business Center
of Excellence (ECO) at Indian Institute of Technology Kharag-
pur and National Institute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE)
Administration. Ministry of Human Resource Development
(MHRD) is the controlling ministry of these institutes.
Notes on contributors
Sube Singh received BTech in Mechan-
ical Engineering from Guru Jambhesh-
war University Hisar, India, in 2012, and
MTech in Computer Aided Design and
Manufacturing (CAD/CAM) from Moti-
lal Nehru National Institute of Technol-
ogy, Prayagraj, India, in 2015. Since 2015,
he is a Senior Research Fellow in E-
Business Centre of Excellence and pursuing PhD in the Depart-
ment of Industrial and Systems Engineering at Indian Insti-
tute of Technology Kharagpur, India. His research interests
are manufacturing systems, supply chain, and metaheuristics
algorithm.
Ramesh Kumar is pursuing a PhD. in the
area of Industrial Engineering and Manu-
facturing Systems from the National Insti-
tute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE),
Mumbai, India. Earlier, he received MTech
from the Department of Production and
Industrial Engineering at the National
Institute of Technology, Jamshedpur, India,
in 2016, and BE in Mechanical Engineering in 2013. His
research areas are discrete event simulation, stochastic opti-
mization in supply chain network design and transportation.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH 13
Rohit Panchal is pursuing a PhD. in Envi-
ronmental Engineering and Management
from the National Institute of Industrial
Engineering, Mumbai. He received the
BTech in Civil Engineering from Poorn-
ima College of Engineering, Jaipur, India,
in 2015, and MTech in Environmental
Engineering from the National Institute of
Foundry and Forge Technology, Ranchi, India, in 2017. His
research fields are the circular economy, E-waste, and reverse
supply chain.
Manoj Kumar Tiwari (FNAE, FNASc,
FIISE) is Director, National Institute of
Industrial Engineering (NITIE), Mumbai,
India. He is also a Professor in the Depart-
ment of Industrial and Systems Engineer-
ing at the Indian Institute of Technol-
ogy, Kharagpur, India. He received BE
in Mechanical Engineering from Visves-
varaya National Institute of Technology, Nagpur, India, in
1986, MTech in Production Engineering from Motilal Nehru
National Institute of Technology, Prayagraj, India, in 1990, and
Ph.D. in the Department of Production Engineering from Uni-
versity of Jadavpur. He is actively involved in research relevant
to the applications of optimization, modeling, decision support
systems, and data mining in the domain of logistics, supply
chain management, and manufacturing systems.
ORCID
Sube Singh http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2175-0006
Ramesh Kumar http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3624-232X
Rohit Panchal http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0049-7558
Manoj Kumar Tiwari http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8564-1402
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