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Prof U Dinesh Kumar, IIMB
Seasonalit
Trend y Cyclical
Random
Yt Tt St Ct Rt
Seasonalit
Trend y Cyclical
Random
Yt Tt St Ct Rt
© All Rights Reserved, Indian Institute of Management Bangalore
Predictive Analytics : QM901.1x
Prof U Dinesh Kumar, IIMB
Seasonalit
Trend y
Yt Tt St
Yt
St
Tt Yt / Tt is called
deseasonalized data
• Moving Average.
• Exponential Smoothing.
Data
• The forecast for period t+1 (Ft+1) is given by the average of the ‘n’ most
recent data.
1 t
Ft 1 Yi
n i t n 1
• The forecast for period t+1 (Ft+1) is given by the average of the ‘n’ most
recent data.
1 t
Ft 1 Yi
n i t n 1
Moving Average
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 t
Ft 1 Yi
7 i t 7 1
Et = Ft - Yt
© All Rights Reserved, Indian Institute of Management Bangalore
Predictive Analytics : QM901.1x
Prof U Dinesh Kumar, IIMB