Development of SMRT Strategic Public Transport

Model of Singapore
Jeffrey Ang
Email: Jeffreyang@smrt.com.sg
 • Transport Simulations in SMRT

• SMRT Cube Strategic Model

• Model Development and Structure

Overview • Landuse and Distance Fares Model

• Model Performance

• Integration of Cube with Genetic Algorithm

 Transport Simulation in SMRT

First SMRT Strategic Update of Strategic SMRT decided to built in-

Model using Emme2 Model and conversion house capability in model
software. of Emme2 to Cube development.

Commence update of 2007

2002

2010
2007
North East Circle Line
model developed by
Line Study Study
external consultant

EMME/2
 Transport Simulation in SMRT

Decide to abandon the First in-house Second model

existing model model completed upgrade

New Features: Commence second overhaul

2011

2012

2014
Team decided to build
CUBE : New 4-Stage Model of the model to improve
model from scratch
CUBE : New AM Peak model to model PPHPD forecasting horizon:
Python : New Python model to calculate Distance Fares URA MasterPlan 2014
ArcGIS : New land use model for Trip Generation Cube Version Upgrade to 6.0
Forecast horizon extended from 2016 to 2021
 Transport Simulation in SMRT

Second model Purchase of: Purchase of: To commence 3rd

upgrade MassMotion (Station Modelling) OpenTrack (Trains Simulation) Cube model update
completed Vissim (Traffic and Mobility Simulation)

To update Cube land use

2020
2016
Expanded capability into:
2015

New Features: Takes on external consultancy projects

Migration of CUBE 5.0 to 6.1
URA MasterPlan 2014
Zones increased from 1180 to 1503
Nodes increased 4.5x (5400 -> 24,600)
Links increased 3.0x (20,300 -> 61,800)
Forecast horizon stretched from 2021 to 2030
2018
Trains simulation using OpenTrack model based on the latest
Expanded capability into: simulation software URA Master Plan 2019
Pedestrian and Station Simulation
Traffic and Mobility Assessment
Overview – Transport Planning & Modelling in SMRT
• Cube Voyager (Public Transport Ridership Modelling)
• Long term forecasting for public transport network

• VISUM (Master Plan)

• Simulation of private and public transportation

• VISSIM / SIDRA (Traffic Simulation)

• Traffic simulation, Traffic Impact Assessment and Roundabout capacity and performance analysis.

• MassMotion (Pedestrian & Station Simulation)

• Crowd and flow analysis for buildings, events and evacuation.

• OpenTrack /OpenPowerNet (Railway Simulation)

• Capacity of lines and stations, robustness of timetable, changes to infrastructure

• Others: ArcGIS / Python (Connectivity and Accessibility)

• Walkability Analysis, Network Connectivity of study area
Transport Services Provided by SMRT

Transport Modelling
Transport Master Plan
and Simulations

Station and Pedestrian Traffic Impact

Simulations Assessment

Mobility and Public Transport

Accessibility Study Planning

Railway Simulation Highway Engineering

Cube Voyager
SMRT Strategic Public Transport Model for Singapore
 Thomson East Coast Line

North East Line

North South Line

Jurong Region Line

East West Line

Downtown Line

Circle Line
 Model Development and Structure
A. Calibration of Base Year Model B. Forecast for Future Years
Landuse
Model
 Landuse Model
1
Sources of
Landuse Data

2 SMRT GIS Landuse Model

• Split into 15,000 landuse polygons

• Clustered into 7 Regression Groups

• 10 landuse layers from year 2020 to 2030

3 Cube 1503 Zones
 RIDERSHIP BY LINE : TRIP LENGTH :
+/- 10% 5% - 10%

Model
Performance
Cube Forecast (~3 years before line opens)
Vs Actual (6-12 months after line opens)
PASSENGER PER HOUR PER LOCATION OF PPHPD:
DIRECTION (PPHPD) : 100%
+/- 5%
 Modelling of Distance Fares
A. Journey Distance Based Fares B. Estimation of Distance Fares in Cube

• Journey based calculations

• Split by fare type

• Apportionment of revenue to services

 Future
Development
Integration of Cube with Genetic Algorithm
Network Planning using Genetic Algorithm

Genetic Algorithm reflects the process of

natural selection where the fittest individuals
are selected for the reproduction in order to
produce offspring of the next generation.
 Search for all possible routes subjected to pre-defined rules &
conditions, to identify the best solution which minimizes resources

Sample: GA Route Representation

R1 R2 R3

Route Representation Route Set

in Genetic Algorithm

• Network consist of route segment 1, 3, 5, 7 and 9

 Red Line

Sample Results
Scenario 1: RED & BLUE LINE

*Showing the route for Red Line only for illustration

Red Line Blue Line

Estimated Demand : 391 Estimated Demand : 305
Bus Capacity : 24 Bus Capacity : 24
Required Trips : 16 Required Trips : 13
Headway : 4.0 minutes Headway : 5 minutes
No. of Buses : 10 No. of Buses : 6 No. of Buses : 16
Integration of G.A. and Cube
Coding of Road Network in NetworkX
Generation of Feasible Routes Sets
Genetic Algorithm in Python
Initial Population
Fitness Evaluation
Select the best solution to the next
generation
Select good parents for breeding
Fitness Evaluation
(Light Weight Assignment Module)
Manual re-code
Cube Model with New Network
A. Existing Process in Python
Network Preparation in Cube
Import to NetworkX
Network in NetworkX
Generation of Feasible Routes Sets
Genetic Algorithm in Python
Initial Population
Fitness Evaluation
Select the best solution to the next
generation
Develop a process to convert
NetworkX to Cube Network
(vice versa) Select good parents for breeding
Fitness Evaluation
(Light Weight Assignment Module)
Export to Cube
Cube Model with New Network
B. Common Network Representation in NetworkX and Cube C. Integrated Process GA and Cube
Thank you