Team Assignment: Modeling with Systems of Differential

Equations
Zebedee Damrau Scarlett Knott Alazar Hailemeskel

Contents
1. Mutualism
(a) What assumptions are implicitly being made about the growth of each species in the absence of
cooperation? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(b) Interpret the constants a, b, m, and n in terms of the physical problem. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(c) What are the equilibrium levels? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2. DDT
(a) Modify the regular predator-prey model to reflect a system where farmers apply an insecticide. . .
(b) Determine the equilibrium and compare it to the equilibrium of the original system. . . . . . . . .

3. Isle Royale National Park

(a) Why does this seem like an appropriate model for modeling the interaction between these two species?
(b) Simulate the model given a = 0.23, b = 0.0133, c = 0.4, and d = 0.0004. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(c) Describe the dynamics in the simulation and the fit with the data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(d) Give a phase-portrait plot using the model for number of wolves as a function of number of moose.
(e) Describe the dynamics in the phase-portrait. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4. Modeling Cholera Transmission

(a) For each portion of the model, explain what each term means and justify the use of this type of
mathematical formulation to model the particular portion of the model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(b) Simulate this model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(c) Explain what the simulations indicate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1. Mutualism
(a) What assumptions are implicitly being made about the growth of each species in the
absence of cooperation?
In the absence of cooperation, both species will start to die out. This is shown by factors a*x and m*y having a
negative attached. The rate at which the two species die out is proportional to the existing population.

(b) Interpret the constants a, b, m, and n in terms of the physical problem.

a is the rate at which x dies out on its own.
b is the rate at which cooperation between x and y grows x.
m is the rate at which y dies out on its own.
n is the rate at which cooperation between x and y grows y.

(c) What are the equilibrium levels?

dx/dt = 0 when ax = bxy → a = by → y = a/b
dy/dt = 0 when my = nxy → m = nx → x = m/n
There is equilibrium at (x, y) = (m/n, a/b).
2. DDT
(a) Modify the regular predator-prey model to reflect a system where farmers apply an
insecticide.
a is the growth rate of the cottony cushion insect.
b is the death rate of cc due to predation.
m is the death rate of the ladybird beetle due to starvation.
n is growth rate of lb due to preying on cc.
p is the universal death rate due to insecticides.
c is the number of cottony cushion insects.
l is the number of ladybird beetles.

dc/dt = (a-p)*c - b*c*l

dl/dt = -(m+p)*l + n*c*l

(b) Determine the equilibrium and compare it to the equilibrium of the original system.
dc/dt = 0 when (a-p)c = bcl → a-p = bl → l = (a-p)/b
dl/dt = 0 when (m+p)l = ncl → m+p = nc → c = (m+p)/n
There is equilibrium at (c, l) = ((m+p)/n, (a-p)/b)

In the original system, p is zero, so we can remove it from our new system.
dc/dt = when l = a/b
dl/dt = 0 when c = m/n
There is equilibrium at (c, l) = (m/n, a/b)

The difference is that the cottony cushion insect (c) has a higher equilibrium population ((m+p)/n > m/n) and
the ladybird beetle (l) has a lower equilibrium population ((a-p)/b < a/b) when DDT is applied; A higher pest
population means that DDT makes the problem worse for the farmers.
3. Isle Royale National Park
(a) Why does this seem like an appropriate model for modeling the interaction between
these two species?
dx/dt is the change in the moose population. As prey, the moose population increases on its own (+ax), but is
killed when interacting with wolves (-bxy).
dy/dt is the change in wolf population. As predators, the wolf population starves on its own (-cy), but increases
when interacting with moose (+dxy).

(b) Simulate the model given a = 0.23, b = 0.0133, c = 0.4, and d = 0.0004.

(c) Describe the dynamics in the simulation and the fit with the data.
In this situation, both populations are cyclic. The Moose population is expected to vary between 500 and 1700
individuals. The Wolf population is much lower, with 10-30 individuals. A rising Moose population triggers a
rise in Wolf population, which triggers a fall in Moose population, which triggers a fall in Wolf population, which
triggers a rise in the Moose population etc. The fit with the data is fairly good. It shows the same trends where
the moose population peaks and falls. Of course, there is far more randomness. The peak Moose population
far exceeds the model’s prediction. The wolf population is very small either way; It is hard to distinguish the
predicted from the actual.

(d) Give a phase-portrait plot using the model for number of wolves as a function of number
of moose.

(e) Describe the dynamics in the phase-portrait.

This plot very literally shows the cyclical nature of the populations. The progression of time is counter-clockwise;
Following the graph counter-clockwise will show how each population change leads into the next, forever. One
thing to note is that it is much easier to see the impact of the wolf population here. In the previous plot, the wolf
population is so much smaller than the moose population that it is hard to see any changes. Here however, the
difference in axis scaling makes the wolves more distinct.
4. Modeling Cholera Transmission
(a) For each portion of the model, explain what each term means and justify the use of this
type of mathematical formulation to model the particular portion of the model.
Entering the susceptible population, µ represents the birth rate, which is constant for this example; the birth rate as
a rate is constant. The µs term represents the percentage of people dying while in the susceptible population; this
is expressed as a rate times the susceptible population, which is appropriate. βI si term represents the percentage
of people who become infected because of contact with those who are already infected; since this term involves
contact between two populations, it makes sense for it to involve s and i.The βW sw term represents the percentage
of people who become infected from contact with infected water; similarly, the s and w portion of the term is
appropriate because it involves the interaction between two populations. The ξi term represents the extent to
which those who are infected contaminate the water; it is sensible that total water contamination increase is
proportional to the percent currently infected. The ξw term represents how much cholera naturally decays and
goes away in the water source; it is sensible that the amount of cholera decay in the water is proportional to the
amount of cholera currently present. The µi term represents the percentage of people dying while in the infected
population; it is sensible that this would be proportional to the total infected population i. The γi term represents
what percentage of infected people recover per unit of time; it is sensible that this would be proportional to
the total infected population i. The µr term represents the percentage of people dying while in the recovered
population; it is sensible that this would be proportional to the total recovered population r.

(b) Simulate this model.

(c) Explain what the simulations indicate.

The simulation indicates that the cholera outbreak will quickly spread throughout the entire population. The
extreme infectiousness of contaminated water guarantees that nearly everyone will get sick, even if the concentration
remains low. However, the fast recovery rate means that only a small portion of the population will be sick at
once. The largest peak occurs around day 38, but there are still four times more recovered than infected people.
Around day 110 the infected population is small enough that the water contamination finally starts to dissipate.