BaNGLaDESH FOOD FPMU

SITUaTION REPORT
January-March, 2019 www.fpmu.gov.bd Volume-116
Overview
Domestic Production Outlook
Total foodgrain production in the FY2017-18 was 37.38 mmt, same as the level of previous year’s
production. The target for foodgrain production in the FY2018-19 was set by the DAE at 37.31 mmt
where crop-specific targets were 2.70 mmt, 14.13 mmt, 19.24 mmt and 1.29 mmt for aus, aman, boro
and wheat respectively. Aus, amon and wheat harvesting have been completed but production estimation
has not yet been finalized by BBS.
Foodgrain Import
Total foodgrain import in the FY2017-18 was 9.77 mmt of which rice was 3.89 mmt and wheat 5.88
mmt including 0.12 mmt as food aid. The public revised budget for total foodgrain import in the
FY2018-19 has been fixed at 0.73 mmt of which rice would be 0.09 mmt and wheat 0.64 mmt. During
the 3rd quarter (January-March /19) of the current fiscal year, total foodgrain import was 1.79 mmt of
which 0.06 mmt was rice and 1.73 mmt wheat.
Domestic Foodgrain Procurement
Total foodgrain procurement in the FY2017-18 was 1.67 mmt, all of which was rice. Wheat procurement
was nil during the fiscal year. In the current fiscal year FY 2018-19, revised target for foodgrain
procurement set at 2.18-mmt.where rice procurement target was 2.13 mmt, and wheat 0.05 mmt. The
target for wheat procurement during the current fiscal year has been set at 0.05 mmt at the rate of Tk 28/
kg. Wheat procurement started from 1 April and will continue up to 30 June 2019. Boro procurement
will start from 25 April and will continue up to 31 August 2019. Procurement target has been set at 1.00
mmt at the rate of Tk. 26/kg for paddy and Tk. 36/kg for per boiled rice.
Public Foodgrain Distribution
Total foodgrain distribution during FY2017-18 was 2.12 mmt, against the revised target of 2.18 mmt.
The revised target for total foodgrain distribution during the FY2018-19 was set at 2.84 mmt. During the
the 3rd quarter (January-March /19) of the present fiscal year, 1.82 mmt of foodgrains were distributed.
Public Stock of Foodgrains
The closing public stock of foodgrains in June/18 was 1.32 mmt. The current fiscal year (2018-19)
started with a bit of higher opening stock, which was 1.66 mmt in July/18. The stock decreased
gradually in November and reached at 1.19 mmt then it increased in February, reached at 1.64 mmt, and
again declined thereafter.
Domestic Market Prices
The wholesale prices of rice declined but wheat prices rose during the 3rd quarter from January to March
of FY18-19 (Fig. 2). The nominal prices of rice declined by 6.79%, while wheat price rose by 4.91%.
Similarly, the real price of rice declined by 7.09%, whereas wheat price rose by 4.57% during the same
period.
International Production and Prices Outlook
According to latest USDA forecast, in the global market, 2018/19 production is projected at a record
501.4 million tons (milled basis), down 0.2 million from the previous forecast. On the other hand,
Global wheat production in April 2018/19 is 733.4 million tons, which is 4.0% less than the previous
year to the lowest level in four years During the 3rd quarter from January to March of FY18-19 LC
settled and Thai 5% parboiled both prices remained stable while LC settled and SRW price both
decreased.

FPMU, Ministry of Food; 24 April 2019

1
 Domestic Foodgrain Availability
Domestic Foodgrain Production
Total foodgrain production in the FY2017-18 was finalized by the BBS at 37.38 mmt against the actual
production of 35.10 mmt in the preceding year. Crop specific achievements of production were 2.71
mmt, 13.99 mmt, 19.58 mmt and 1.10 mmt for aus, aman, boro and wheat respectively.). Actual
production of aus, aman and boro slightly increased, whereas wheat production slightly decreased
compared to the actual production of the previous year. The target for foodgrain production in the
FY2018-19 has been set by DAE at 37.31 mmt. The crop-specific targets are 2.70 mmt, 14.13 mmt,
19.62 mmt and 1.29 mmt for aus, aman, boro and wheat respectively. According to the latest report of
DAE, area for aus and amon has already been acceded of its target of 11.25 and 56.43 lac hectors
respectively. As on 9 April 2019 Boro cultivation area reached 49.39 lac hector which is 1.9% more than
actual targe. Although Aus, amon and wheat harvesting have completed, BBS has not yet finalized their
production estimation.

Figure 1: Annual foodgrain production (mmt) and crop-wise contribution

2.71 1.10 Boro
2.70 1.29 Boro
Aman Aman
Aus
Aus
Wheat
Wheat

13.99 19.58 14.08 19.24

2017/18(Actual) 2018/19(Target)

Foodgrain Import
Total foodgrain import in the FY2017-18 was 9.77 mmt of which rice was 3.89 mmt and wheat 5.88
mmt including 0.12 mmt as food aid. Of the large amount of rice import, about 0.86 mmt was public
commercial import and 3.01 mmt was imported by the private sector. Of the total wheat, import of 5.88
mmt, only about 0.40 mmt was public commercial import, and 5.38 mmt was imported by the private
sector. The public revised budget for total foodgrain import in the FY2018-19 has been fixed at 0.73
mmt of which rice would be 0.09 mmt and wheat 0.64 mmt. During the 3rd quarter (January-March /19)
of the current fiscal year, total foodgrain import was 1.79 mmt of which 0.06 mmt was rice and 1.73
mmt wheat.
Table 1: Foodgrain imports (‘000’ mt)
` 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 FY 2018-19
  Q1 Q2 Arrival by Month Q4 Total Import
(Actual) (Budgeted &
(Actual) (Actual) (Actual) (Actual) (Actual) (Actual) Q3 Projection projected)
Jan Feb Mar Total Apr-Jun
Rice
GoB Com. 0.0 0.0 0.0 865 14.7 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 35 50
Food Aid 3.1 0.0 1.3 22 15.4 19 6.6 0.0 0.0 7 1 42
Private 372 1490 256 3007 38.7 21 7.3 18.3 30.9 56 84 200
Total Rice 375 1490 257 3893 69 40 14 18 31 63 120 292
Wheat
GoB. Com. 853 324 330 404 49 51 31.4 11.6 50.1 93 357 550
Food Aid 73 10 86 102 68 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 18 86
Private 1765 3450 3950 5376 1331 1025 866.5 258.5 514.3 1639 1076 5072
Total
Wheat 2691 3784 4366 5881 1448 1076 898 270 564 1732 1451 5707

Foodgrain 3065 5274 4623 9774 1517 1117 912 288 595 1796 1571 6000
2
Domestic Food grain Procurement
Total foodgrain procurement in the FY2017-18 was 1.67 mmt, all of which was rice. Wheat procurement
was nil as there was no public procurement target for wheat. In the current fiscal year FY 2018-19,
revised target for foodgrain procurement set at 2.18-mmt.where rice procurement target was 2.13 mmt,
and wheat 0.05 mmt. Aman procurement started on 1 December/2018 and will continue up to 7th March
2019. On that dated, 8.00 mmt of amon rice has been procured which is 100% of its target amount. The
target for wheat procurement during the current fiscal year has been set at 0.05 mmt at the rate of Tk 28/
kg. Wheat procurement started from 1 April and will continue up to 30 June 2019. Boro procurement
has been set at 0.15 mmt of paddy and 0.90 mmt of rice at the rate of Tk. 26/kg of paddy and Tk. 36/kg
of per boiled rice Boro procurement will start from 25 April and will continue up to 31 August 2019.
Public Food grain Distribution
Total foodgrain distribution during FY2017-18 was 2.12 mmt, against the revised target of 2.18 mmt.
Distribution through the Vulnerable Group Development (VGD) channel was the highest (0.36 mmt),
followed by Food Friendly (Khadya Bandhob) programme for 5 million rural ultra-poor households,
OMS, VGF, and EP channels of PFDS (Table-2). The revised target for total foodgrain distribution
during the FY2018-19 was set at 2.84 mmt. During the the 3 rd quarter (January-March /19) of the present
fiscal year, 1.82 mmt of foodgrains were distributed.
Table-2 Channel-wise distribution of food grains (000 mt)
FY 2018-19 (Actual
FY 2016-17 FY 2017-18 (2018-19) distribution Up to
Offtake Channe ls of
(Actual) (Actual) (Revise d Budgete d) March)
Categorie s
PFDS
Rice Wheat Total
Offtake Rice Wheat Total Rice Wheat Total Rice Whe at Total
Essential
Priorities 180 119 299 198.0 129.0 327.0 210 137 347 150.3 98.2 248.5
Other Priorities 15 4 19 16.0 3.0 19.0 16 3 19 13.0 3.0 16.0
Monetized Large Employers 250 266 516 10.0 10.0 20.0 12 11 23 2.1 9.8 11.9
Channels of Open Market
S ales/FF 0 14 14 155.0 195.0 350.0 100 350 450 9.6 205.2 214.8
PFDS
Khadda
Bandhob 299.0 0.0 299.0 748 0 748 596.0 0.0 596.0
Kamosuchi
Sub-total 444 403 847 678 337 1015 1086 501 1587 771.1 316.2 1087.3
Food For Works
(with ER) 182 42 224 178.0 21.5 199.5 140 119 259 78.1 3.8 81.9
S chool Feeding 8 8 16 0.0 19.0 19.0 0 0 0 0.0 1.2 1.2
Test Relief 150 48 198 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Non- VGF 349 2 351 280.0 0.0 280.0 420 0 420 228.5 0.0 228.6
monetized VGD 268 0 268 361.0 0.0 361.0 367 0 367 270.6 0.0 270.6
Channels of
Gratuitous
PFDS 66 11 76.5 88.0 0.0 88.0 125 0 125 27.8 0.0 27.8
Relief
HT/ Others 45 38 8350.0 30.0 80.0 50 30 80 36.0 17.0 53.0
ER/AS 74.5 74.5 60.6 12.0 72.6
Sub-total 1068 149 1216 1032 71 1102 1102 149 1251 702 34 736
Total Public Distribution 1512 552 2064 1710 408 2117 2188 650 2838 1473 350 1823
Public Stock of Foodgrains
The closing public stock of foodgrains in June/18 was 1.32 mmt. The current fiscal year (2018-19)
started with a bit of higher opening stock, which was 1.66 mmt in July/18. The stock decreased
gradually in November and reached at 1.19 mmt then it increased in February, reached at 1.64 mmt, and
again declined thereafter. A reasonably high level of stock may consider adequate to meet the
requirements for PFDS operations in the coming months.
Table 3: Commodity-wise closing public stock in FY 2016-17 and 2017-18 (000 mt)
Month July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
2017/18 Rice 215 313 361 408 347 509 865 1104 950 769 930 963
Wheat 231 203 194 207 317 400 446 473 460 414 356 352
Total 446 516 555 615 664 909 1311 1577 1410 1183 1286 1315
2018/19 Rice 1285 1306 1300 1064 860 1044 1291 1391 1182
Wheat 372 341 353 364 325 283 277 249 262
Total 1657 1647 1653 1428 1185 1327 1568 1640 1445 0 0 0 3
 Market Price Review
Rice and Wheat Wholesale Prices
The wholesale prices of rice declined but wheat prices
rose during the 3rd quarter from January to March of 4500 Fig.2 National wholsale price
FY18-19 (Fig. 2). The nominal prices of rice declined
4000
by 6.79%, while wheat price rose by 4.91%.
Similarly, the real price of rice declined by 7.09%, 3500

Taka/Quintal
whereas wheat price rose by 4.57% during the same 3000
period. Both nominal and real prices of rice and wheat 2500
increased during the same period a year earlier. During 2000
April/18 to March/19, nominal and real prices of rice 1500
decreased by 20.56% and 24.68% respectively. Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

However, nominal and real prices of wheat went up by Rice 2017-18

Rice 2018-19
Wheat 2017-18
Wheat 2018-19
16.56% and 10.52% respectively during the same
period. Both nominal and real prices of rice and wheat increased during the same period a year earlier.

Table 4: Change of rice and wheat prices

Nominal price Real price
Period Rice Wheat Rice Wheat
Jan'19 to Mar'19 -6.79% 4.91% -7.09% 4.57%
Jan'18 to Mar'18 1.00% 4.52% 0.53% 4.03%
Apr'18 to Mar'19 -20.56% 16.56% -24.68% 10.52%
Apr'17 to Mar'18 6.45% 13.87% 0.85% 19.38%

Rice and Wheat flour Retail Prices 45

Fig.3 National retail price: 2017-18

The retail prices of rice showed downward trend

40
during the 3rd quarter from January to March of
Taka per kg

FY18-19. In this period, price of rice increased by 5% 35

and atta remained stable. During the April/18 to 30

March/19, price of rice started declining with sharp 25

fluctuation, while prices of atta decreasing initially up
20
to August/18 and remained stable thereafter (Fig-3). Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Rice 2017-18 Atta 2017-18
Rice 2018-19 Atta 2018-19

Difference between Retail and Wholesale Prices of Rice and Wheat Flour
Between April/18 to March/19, retail and wholesale prices of rice and atta in Dhaka city markets moved
almost in the same direction with fluctuation, parallel to each other, with percentage margins ranging
from 10.8% to 9.1% for rice and 20.9% to 9.7% for atta (Figures 4 and 5). The margins of rice remained
more or less stable but the margins of atta unstable during the period under review.

Fig.4 Margins, retail and  wholesale prices of rice in  Fig. 5 Margins, retail and wholesale prices  of Atta in 

50 35 Dhaka
Dhaka
30 26.9
40 25.0
25 23.0 24.1
30
Taka/%

18.0
Taka/%

20 16.8 15.8
20 17.3 13.8 14.8
10.8 9.0 12.1 13.7 10.9 15
10 7.3 8.6 8.8 7.2 8.1 9.1 9.7 9.6 9.7
10

0 5
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Percentage margin Retail price Wholesale price Percentage margin Retail price Wholesale price

4
 Monitoring and Outlook for Wholesale Prices of Food grains
Domestic Rice Price
During November/18-March/19 period, rice
prices followed somewhat similar pattern as
observed over the last four years. During this
period, the market prices were lower than the
normalized price and their absolute differences
decreased from 15.7% in November/18 and
20.5% in March/19. Price monitoring model, as
shown, forecasts a band within which the price
of rice expected to remain during April to
June/19, if past trends confirmed. Based on the
estimates, it noted that there is approximately
70% chance that the price of coarse rice would
remain between Tk.27.26/kg and Tk.29.53/kg in April/19 and between Tk. 26.97/kg and 30.41/kg in
June/19 (Fig. 6).

Domestic Wheat Price

During November/18-March/19 period, wheat
prices followed somewhat different pattern as
observed over the last four years. During this
period, the market prices were lower than the
normalized price, except in February/19 where
pass across the price and then the market prices
were higher than the normalized price observed
during last four years and their absolute
differences declined from 4.4% in
November/18 and increased from 4.7% in
June/19. Based on the estimates the model
shows approximately 70% chance of the
wholesale wheat price would remain between
Tk. 23.96/kg and Tk. 25.96/kg in April/19 and between Tk. 24.30/kg and 27.40/kg in June/19 (Fig. 7).

International Production and Price

Global Rice Production and Price
According to latest USDA forecast, in the global market, 2018/19 production is projected at a record
501.4 million tons (milled basis), down 0.2 Fig 8 International rice price
500
million from the previous forecast. This month, 450
production forecasts lowered for Burma, 400

Indonesia, Pakistan, and the Philippines, but 350

USD/MT

300
raised for Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, and Sri 250
Lanka. The LC settled price of rice initially 200

increased, then started decline with fluctuation 150

100
and picked in December/18. The price of Thai 50
5% parboiled rice had an upward trend reached 0
Oct'17

Oct'18
Aug'17

Nov'17

Aug'18

Nov'18
Apr'17

Jul'17

Apr'18

Jul'18
May'1 7

May'1 8
Mar'18

Mar'19
Jun'17

Jun'18
Dec'17

Dec'18
Sep'17

Feb'18

Sep'18

Feb'19
Jan'18

Jan'19

its peak in June/17 and decreased thereafter with

moderate fluctuations. During the 3rd quarter LC Settled Thai 5% paraboiled

from January to March of FY18-19 LC settled Source: Bangladesh Bank, USDA

and Thai 5% parboiled both prices remained stable
(Figure 8).

5
Global Wheat Production and Price
According to USDA forecast, Global wheat Fig 9 International wheat price
production in April 2019 is 733.4 million tons, 400

which is 4.0% less than the previous year to the 350

lowest level in four years. This month, 300

production forecasts lowered for Russia, EU and

USD/MT
250
Australia. The LC settled price and US Soft Red
200
Winter (SRW) prices of wheat fluctuated during
the whole period from April/17 to March/19. The 150

LC settled wheat price peaked in January/18 100

while SRW price peaked in July/17. The SRW 50

May'1 7

Jul'17

May'1 8

Jul'18
Aug'17

Oct'17
Nov'17

Aug'18

Oct'18
Nov'18
Apr'17

Apr'18
Mar'18

Mar'19
Jun'17

Jun'18
Dec'17

Dec'18
Sep'17

Feb'18

Sep'18

Feb'19
Jan'18

Jan'19
wheat price remained persistently lower than the
LC settled price. During the 3rd quarter from L C Settled Wheat (so ft red)

January to March of FY18-19, LC settled and

SRW price both decreased (Figure 9).

Food Consumption and Nutrition

Rice fortification programme

Distribution of rice fortified with micronutrients through the Rice Fortification Programme is an
important component of the nutrition-sensitive social protection programme implemented by the
Government of Bangladesh. The overall objective of the Programme is to reduce micronutrient
deficiencies in high-risk, targeted groups in Bangladesh, with a strong focus on women of reproductive
age and children under five years of age. Six micronutrients namely Vitamin-A, Vitamin-B1, Vitamin-
B12, Zinc, Iron and Folic Acid are added to rice kernels. In a standard pack of milled white rice
distributed, the ratio of fortified rice kernels to plain non-fortified rice is 1:100. At present the rice
fortification programme has been incorporated in the Food Friendly Programme and Vulnerable Group
Development programme.
The Ministry of Food has been implementing different programs focusing on target groups like poor and
distressed women and children, and other disadvantaged groups of the population for over last four
decades. In this regard, Ministry of Food has
launched Khaddya Bandhob Karmosuchi (Food
Friendly Program) for the extreme poor families
across the country in 2016. In the selection criteria
of the beneficiaries, distressed women have been
prioritized. Under this Program 50 lakh, ultra-poor
families have been targeted as the recipients of the
ration for 5 lean months of the year. At present
fortified rice is being distributed to 10 Upazilas
under the Food Friendly Program of Ministry of
Food. With the support from World Food
Programme and Nutrition International
Bangladesh, fortified rice is also being distributed to another 14 Upazila under the Food Friendly
Program. The Government has decided to expand the rice fortification programme. Total number of
beneficiaries from Food Friendly Programme is 238276 from 24 upazila.
The Ministry of Food also provides support for the implementation of Vulnerable Group Development
(VGD) in collaboration with Ministry of Women and children Affairs, where distressed women are
getting 30 kg of rice per month along with training support. Under the VGD programme, the
beneficiaries from 81 upazila are getting fortified rice. WFP supports the distribution of fortified rice
among the beneficiaries of 15 Upazila under VGD programme. Total number of beneficiaries from VGD
Programme is 219810 from 96 upazila.