FACULTY OF ENGINEERING

DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING

SPECIAL EXAMINATION FOR SEMESTER I-2019-2020
Course Unit: ENGINEERING PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
Module Code: EMT 3127

DATE: 24-11-2020 TIME: 2:00-3:30 PM

INSTRUCTIONS:
[1] This examination paper consists of seven (07) questions. Attempt THREE (03) questions
[2] The weight of each question is indicated.

Qn 1: Basic probability
1. A jar contains 03 red, 02 blue, and 08 green marbles.
i. If one marble is drawn at random from the jar, what's the probability that the marble is
green? (2 marks)
ii. If two marbles are drawn at random from the jar, with the first marble being replaced
before the second is drawn, what's the probability that both marbles are green? (4
marks)
iii. If two marbles are drawn at random from the jar and the first marble is not replaced
before the second is drawn, what's the probability that both marbles are green? (4
marks)
iv. Calculate the probability of picking a red ball on the second pick given that a green
ball was picked on the first draw (5 marks)
2. A jar has 10 vanilla candies, 04 chocolate candies, and 01 strawberry candy. If 02 candies
are drawn at random from the jar without replacement, what is the probability that both
are strawberry? (2 marks)
3. Determine the sample space for the following experiment: (3 marks)
i. Choosing one of the four possible aces from a standard deck of cards.
ii. Flipping two coins at the same time.
iii. Write a set for the event of rolling an odd number on a standard 6-sided die.

Qn 2: Bayes Rule and conditional Probabilities

a. Throw a dice (1) and toss a coin (2). Ω1= {1,2,3,4,5,6 }, Ω2= { H , T }and the combined
sample space Ω={ ( 1 , H ) , ( 2, H ) … … … . }and total number of sample space = 12. Let
A={ 4,6 }and B¿ { H }, so that AB={ ( 4 , H ) ,(6 , H ) }(two out of 12 equally likely events),
B
( )
Calculate the probability p ( A ), p ( B ), p ( AB ) and p
A
and comment on the results (5
marks)

b. Let A be the probability of having a disease-X, let B be the probability of having a

B
swollen ankles. From a sample of former disease X patients, p
A ( )
=0.3 . among the total

1
 population of p ( B )=0.01 of the people have swollen ankles. The incidence of disease X
among the population are ( A ) =0.005 . Calculate the probability of a patient having a
disease X given that they have swollen ankles (4 marks)

c. Let A1 represent the proportion of the population with disease – X well as A2If
B B
p
A2( )
=0.01 and p ( )
A1
=0.3. Also ( A ) =0.005 .

i. Calculate the probability that a general person does not have a disease X (3 marks)
ii.Proportion people who have swollen ankles p ( B ) (4 marks)
A
iii. Proportion of the population withdisease X giventhen have swollenankles p( 1 ) (4
B
marks)
Qn 3: Probability Mass Function
1. The table below shows the Probability Mass Function of X, use it to calculate the standard
deviation of x (10 marks)

X 20 22 24 25

0.4
P( X =x) 0.2 0.28 0.1
2

2. Neville Company has three machines B1, B2, and B3 for making 1 kΩ resistors. It has been
observed that 80% of resisters produced by B1 are within 50Ω of the norminal value.
Machine B2 produces 90% of resistors within 50Ω of the norminal value. The percentage
for machine B3 is 60%. Each hour, machine B1 300 resistors, B2 produces 4000 resistors
and B3 produces 3000 resistors. All of the resistors are mixed together at random in one
bin and packed for shipment.
i. What is the probability that the company ships a resistor that is within 50Ω of the
norminal value? (10 marks)
Qn 4: Joint Probability Distribution
Suppose that 2 batteries are randomly chosen without replacement from the following group
of 12 batteries: 3 new, 4 used (working) and 5 defective
Let X denote the number of new batteries chosen.
Let Y denote the number of used batteries chosen.
Let Z denote the number of defected batteries
ii. Find F XZ ( y , z )i.e. Joint distribution function of used batteries and defected batteries
(10 marks)
iii. Calculate E ( y ) and E ( y 2 ) (8 marks)
iv. Deduce var ( y ) (2 marks)

Qn 5: Probability Density Function

a) Let X uniform [ 0,1 ] density function sketch the probability density function. Reminder
f ( x )=1(2 marks)
b) Calculate the expectation and E ( x 2 ) of the distribution above (8 marks)
c) Calculate the standard deviation, for a probability distribution function f ( x )=exp ( x )
2
 F ( x )=λe− λx (10 marks)

Qn 6: Permutations and Combinations

a. There are 10 balls in a bag numbered from 1 to 10. Three balls are selected at random.
How many different ways are there of selecting the three balls? (3 marks)
b. In a football tournament, 20 teams were grouped into 2 pools of 10 teams each. In
each pool, all teams have to play against each other once. If the top 4 teams qualified
for the quarter finals, Calculate the total number of games played for the whole
tournament? (5 marks)
c. In how many ways can an animal trainer arrange 5 lions and 4 tigers in a row so that
no two lions are together? (4 marks)
d. Out of 6 boys and 4 girls, a committee of 5 has to be formed. In how many ways can
this be done if we take : (8 marks)
i. 2 girls.
ii. At least 2 girls

Qn 7: Binomial Distribution
1. If 95% of households have a TV and 8 houses are surveyed, what is the probability that
more than 6 have a TV? (4 marks)
2. A manufacturer knows that an average of 1 out of 10 of his products is faulty. What is the
probability that a random sample of 5 articles will contain:
a. No faulty products (3 marks)
b. Exactly 1 faulty products (3 marks)
c. At least 2 faulty products (3 marks)
3. A random variable X has the distribution B(12,p)
i. Given that p ¿, find the value of p to 3decimal place (4 marks)
ii. Given that the variance of X is 1.92. Find the possible values of X (3 marks)

END