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125 WEEKS
IGM FINANCIAL INC
20DEC02 - 6MAY05
HI-28MAY04
IGM.T
104.321
IGM Financial
IGM FINANCIAL INC Rel. S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX
100.00
95.00
LO/HI DIFF
CLOSE
14.48%
Outperform
IGM FINANCIAL INC
LO/HI DIFF 69.07%
38.00
36.00
34.00
32.00
30.00
28.00
CLOSE 37.970
Average Risk
Q1/05 Results – In Line With Expectations Despite Some
26.00
Q1/05 Highlights
• Q1/05 results in line with expectations with some minor variances – Q1/05 revenues of $573MM were higher than our
$567MM estimate, reflecting higher net investment income ($50MM versus $41MM) arising from $4.2MM in non-
recurring income. Higher revenues were offset by higher than expected commission expenses ($176MM versus $169MM
estimate) arising from seasonality and a higher contribution from IPC Financial ($17MM). EBITDA was $327MM versus
our $324MM estimate, implying an EBITDA margin of 57.1% versus our 57.2% estimate. EPS of $0.60 was basically in
line with our $0.61 estimate. The remaining variance in EPS to our estimate was a higher tax rate of 30.7% versus our
29.5% estimate. Q1/05 ROE of 19.4% was just shy of our 19.9% and represented a slight decrease from 19.8% in Q1/04.
• AUM growth driven by net sales and market appreciation – Average YoY AUM growth in Q1/05 at Investors
Group and Mackenzie was a healthy 8.3% following a 9.9% YoY increase in Q4/04. AUM Growth was driven by
market appreciation (+$1.3B) and RSP season net sales (+$774MM). Despite contributing $1.5B to consolidated
AUM, strong net sales momentum continued at IPC Financial with net sales of $90MM in Q1/05.
100,000 0
0 -100,000
-100,000 -200,000
-200,000 -300,000
-300,000
v
n
c
g
p
r
b
ar
ct
ay
Ju
Ap
No
Ja
Ju
Au
Se
De
Fe
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
O
M
Source: IFIC
May 9, 2005 2
RBC Capital Markets IGM Financial
• Uptick in number of advisors – There were 3,503 advisors at the end of Q1/05, of which 59% had > 4 years experience
(versus 3,496 and 58% at Q4/04 and 3,391 and 59% at the end of Q3/04). Recruiting momentum continued in Q1/05
despite a seasonally weak recruiting period. 2004 represented the first YoY increase in the number of advisors since 1998.
The increase in advisors reflects a combination of successful recruiting efforts and lower advisor defections. The following
chart shows the recent increase in the number of advisors and gross sales and AUM per advisor.
Advisor Trends
14,000
3,900
12,000
3,700
10,000
3,500
8,000
C$000s
3,300
6,000 3,100
4,000 2,900
2,000 2,700
0 2,500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E
Gross Sales Per Advisor AUM Per Advisor Average Number of Advisors (RH)
• Decent relative fund performance – For Mackenzie, 68% and 87% of funds were rated 4&5 stars and >3 stars,
respectively, while 43% and 76% of Investors Group funds were rated 4 & 5 stars and > 3 stars, respectively. The following
chart shows the average relative fund performance of the top 10 largest funds for each company in our coverage universe.
On this basis over a one-year period, Dundee Wealth and CI are the leaders followed by Mackenzie, AGF and Investors
Group.
Relative Fund Performance Among Ten Largest Funds for Each Company Under Coverage (as at March 2005)
Top 10 as Quartile
% of AUM 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
AGF 64% 2.5 2.1 1.9
CI 52% 1.8 1.5 1.7
Clarington 87% 3.4 3.6 3.0
Dundee Wealth 57% 1.6 1.1 1.5
Investors Group 61% 2.7 n/m n/m
Mackenzie 59% 2.5 1.6 1.6
Group average 63% 2.4 2.0 1.9
Source: BellCharts
May 9, 2005 3
RBC Capital Markets IGM Financial
The following charts show the trend in these various components of commission and non-commission expense over the past 9
quarters. While there are many moving parts, total quarterly commission and non-commission expenses (as a percentage of
AUM) have remained fairly constant at 36bp (excluding Q1 seasonality). A decrease in quarterly non-commission expenses
from 20bp in Q1/03 to 17bp in Q1/05 has been largely offset by an increase in quarterly commission expenses from 17bp in
Q1/03 to 21bp in Q1/05. While the increase in commission expenses can be partly attributed to increased sales activity, the
company increased the commission rates paid to its advisors as part of Investors Group’s realignment of advisor compensation
in 2003. Of the multiple components to commission expenses, we believe asset retention premiums (i.e., deferred
compensation) arising from the realignment have the most potential to surprise on the upside and thus remain a focus for us.
0.40% 0.18%
0.16%
0.35% 0.14%
% of Average AUM
0.12%
% of Average AUM
0.30%
0.10%
0.25% 0.08%
0.06%
0.20% 0.04%
0.02%
0.15% 0.00%
0.10% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005E 2005E 2005E
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005E 2005E 2005E MF Non-commission MF Commission MF DSC amortization
As shown below, Investors Group accounted for approximately 47% of total commission and non-commission expenses in
Q1/05 while Mackenzie accounted for 45% and IPC Financial the remaining 8%. IPC generated approximately $27MM in
revenues in Q1/05 (management fees $7MM, administration revenues $1MM, distribution revenues $19MM) while incurring
$25MM in commission ($17MM) and non-commission ($8MM) expenses. YoY comparisons are not available as IPC Financial
was acquired in May 2004 (i.e., Q2/04). Investors Group commission and non-commission expenses have increased from 29bp
in Q1/03 to 32bp in Q1/05, while Mackenzie’s commission and non-commission expenses have decreased from 47bp to 40bp
over the same period.
350,000 0.50%
300,000 0.45%
250,000
% of Average AUM
0.40%
200,000
C$000
0.35%
150,000
0.30%
100,000
50,000 0.25%
0 0.20%
Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2003 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2003 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q1 2005
May 9, 2005 4
RBC Capital Markets IGM Financial
Financial Summary
The following provides a summary of our financial forecast.
Financial Forecast
Market Data RBCCM Target Long-term Assumptions Per Share Statistics
Share Price: $37.97 Rating: Outperform Gross sales (% of AUM) 15.3% 2003 2004 2005E 2006E
52-week High: $39.90 Risk: Average Redemptions (% of AUM) -13.0% EPS 2.01 2.32 2.54 2.85
52-week Low: $31.78 1-yr. Price Target: $41.50 Net Sales 2.3% P/E 18.9x 16.4x 15.0x 13.3x
10-day Average Volume: 94,050 Dividend Yield: 3.4% Mkt. Performance (% of AUM) 8.0% EV/AUM 12.3% 11.2% 10.1% 9.1%
Shares Outstanding (Basic MM): 265 AUM Growth 10.3% OCFPS 3.22 3.44 3.79 4.16
Market Capitalization (MM): $10,049 P/OCFPS 11.8x 10.6x 10.0x 9.1x
Enterprise Value (MM) $9,154 Op. Margin 60.7% 59.1% 58.4% 59.8%
Annual Dividend: 1.29
2002 2003 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2004 2004 Q1 2005 Q2 2005E Q3 2005E Q4 2005E 2005E 2006E
Retail Assets Under Management ($MM))
Investors Group 37,588 40,904 42,675 42,536 42,300 44,510 44,510 45,508 45,940 46,836 47,867 47,867 52,576
Mackenzie 30,860 33,770 35,383 35,847 34,950 37,130 37,130 38,189 38,857 39,829 40,824 40,824 45,615
IPC Financial - - - 663 1,359 1,500 1,500 1,580 1,620 1,660 1,701 1,701 1,872
Total 68,448 74,674 78,058 79,046 78,609 83,140 83,140 85,277 86,417 88,325 90,393 90,393 100,062
Income Statement ($ millions)
Revenues
Management fees 1,389 1,296 365 372 372 383 1,492 391 405 411 419 1,625 1,788
Administration fees 297 287 78 76 74 72 300 79 75 75 75 304 321
Distribution and redemption fees 139 131 35 39 44 46 164 53 49 48 48 198 207
Net investment income 127 160 42 37 37 47 163 50 43 44 44 181 183
Total revenue 1,952 1,874 520 523 527 548 2,119 573 572 578 586 2,308 2,499
Expenses
Commission expense 497 475 144 154 155 164 617 176 172 175 180 703 766
Non-Commission expense 548 494 137 127 127 125 515 143 135 137 137 552 561
Restructuring costs and other - (25) - 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 2
Interest expense (incl. preferreds) 101 106 24 24 24 24 75 22 22 22 22 88 76
Taxes 317 299 68 67 67 73 274 71 72 72 73 289 334
Total expenses 1,459 1,346 372 371 373 386 1,483 412 402 407 413 1,635 1,740
Net Income 492 528 148 163 154 161 636 161 170 170 173 674 758
EBIT 920 917 244 247 250 263 1,002 259 269 270 273 1,068 1,186
Amortization of DSC 204 194 54 55 57 60 227 63 62 64 66 255 284
Depreciation 27 27 5 5 6 6 23 6 6 6 6 23 24
EBITDA 1,150 1,139 303 308 313 329 1,252 327 337 340 345 1,348 1,494
Ratio Analysis
Per Share Data
Reported EPS - f.d. (excl. unusuals) 1.86 2.01 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.61 2.32 0.60 0.64 0.64 0.65 2.54 2.85
EBITDA - f.d. 4.34 4.29 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.24 4.72 1.23 1.26 1.27 1.29 5.06 5.61
Operating Cash Flow - f.d. 3.01 3.22 0.89 0.89 0.83 0.83 3.44 0.97 0.93 0.93 0.95 3.79 4.16
Free Cash Flow - f.d. 1.91 2.30 0.51 0.61 0.57 0.55 2.24 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.59 2.27 2.53
Book Value Common Equity - f.d. $10.12 $10.84 $11.05 $11.45 $12.16 $11.90 $11.90 $12.16 $13.00 $13.31 $13.63 $13.65 $15.05
Profitability
EBITDA Margin 58.9% 60.7% 58.2% 58.8% 59.3% 60.1% 59.1% 57.1% 58.9% 58.8% 58.9% 58.4% 59.8%
EBIT Margin 47.1% 48.9% 46.8% 47.2% 47.3% 48.0% 47.3% 45.2% 47.0% 46.7% 46.6% 46.3% 47.5%
Net Profit Margin 25.2% 28.2% 28.4% 29.1% 29.2% 29.5% 29.1% 28.0% 29.7% 29.5% 29.5% 29.2% 30.4%
ROE 19.4% 19.5% 19.8% 20.5% 19.7% 20.2% 20.5% 19.4% 20.4% 19.6% 19.5% 20.0% 20.0%
Valuation Multiples
EV/Total AUM 13.6% 12.3% 12.0% 11.8% 11.9% 11.2% 11.2% 10.7% 10.6% 10.4% 10.1% 10.1% 9.1%
EV/EBITDA (using current debt; ex GWO) 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.1 7.5 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.8 6.1
Price/Book Value 3.61 3.50 3.31 3.19 3.00 3.07 3.07 3.12 2.92 2.85 2.79 2.78 2.52
Price/Earnings 19.7 18.9 16.4 15.9 15.8 15.1 15.7 15.7 14.9 14.8 14.6 15.0 13.3
Price/Operating Cash Flow 12.1 11.8 10.3 10.3 11.0 11.0 10.6 9.7 10.2 10.2 10.0 10.0 9.1
Average basic shares o/s (000s) 263,487 263,915 264,167 264,371 264,634 264,431 264,431 264,647 264,647 264,647 264,647 264,431 264,647
Average fully diluted shares o/s (000s) 264,873 265,174 265,743 265,960 266,186 266,010 265,174 266,415 266,415 266,415 266,415 266,010 266,415
May 9, 2005 5
RBC Capital Markets IGM Financial
sales, marketing and distribution costs; accelerated pricing pressure; or the resumption of a cyclical bear market that takes
market indices substantially lower from current levels.
Company Description
IGM Financial is Canada’s largest mutual fund company, with $85 billion in Canadian retail assets under management.
IGM Financial offers other financial services such as pension plans, tax-sheltered plans, mortgages, insurance and
brokerage services.
Required Disclosures
Explanation of RBC Capital Markets Rating System
An analyst's "sector" is the universe of companies for which the analyst provides research coverage. Accordingly, the rating
assigned to a particular stock represents solely the analyst's view of how that stock will perform over the next 12 months
relative to the analyst's sector.
Ratings
Top Pick (TP): Represents best in Outperform category; analyst's best ideas; expected to significantly outperform the sector
over 12 months; provides best risk-reward ratio; approximately 10% of analyst's recommendations.
Outperform (O): Expected to materially outperform sector average over 12 months.
Sector Perform (SP): Returns expected to be in line with sector average over 12 months.
Underperform (U): Returns expected to be materially below sector average over 12 months.
Risk Qualifiers (any of the following criteria may be present):
Average Risk (Avg): Volatility and risk expected to be comparable to sector; average revenue and earnings predictability; no
significant cash flow/financing concerns over coming 12-24 months; fairly liquid.
Above Average Risk (AA): Volatility and risk expected to be above sector; below average revenue and earnings predictability;
may not be suitable for a significant class of individual equity investors; may have negative cash flow; low market cap or float.
Speculative (Spec): Risk consistent with venture capital; low public float; potential balance sheet concerns; risk of being
delisted.
Distribution of Ratings, Firmwide
For purposes of disclosing ratings distributions, regulatory rules require member firms to assign all rated stocks to one of three
rating categories−Buy, Hold/Neutral, or Sell−regardless of a firm's own rating categories. Although RBC Capital Markets' stock
ratings of Top Pick/Outperform, Sector Perform and Underperform most closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell,
respectively, the meanings are not the same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as described above).
May 9, 2005 6
RBC Capital Markets IGM Financial
In the event that this is a compendium report (covers more than six subject companies), RBC Capital Markets may choose to
provide specific disclosures for the subject companies by reference. To access current disclosures, clients should refer to
http://rbc2.bluematrix.com/bluematrix/Disclosure?f=34 Ydf8xF or send a request to RBC Capital Markets Research Publishing,
P.O. Box 50, 200 Bay Street, Royal Bank Plaza, 29th Floor, South Tower, Toronto, Ontario M5J 2W7.
References to a Recommended List in the recommendation history chart may include one or more recommended lists or model
portfolios maintained by a member company of RBC Capital Markets or one of its affiliates. RBC Capital Markets
Recommended Lists include the Strategy Focus List and the Fundamental Equity Weightings (FEW) portfolios. RBC Dain
Rauscher Inc. Recommended Lists include the Western Region Focus List (1), a former list called Model Utility Portfolio (2),
and the Prime Opportunity List (3) (formerly called the Private Client Selects), Private Client Prime Portfolio (4), a former list
called Private Client Portfolio (5), and the Prime Income List (6). The abbreviation "RL On" means the date a security was
placed on a Recommended List. The abbreviation "RL Off" means the date a security was removed from a Recommended List.
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the subject securities or issuers. No part of the compensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be, directly or
indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the responsible analyst(s) in this report.
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Important Disclosures
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including
total revenues of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates, a portion of which are or have been
generated by investment banking activities of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates.
The author(s) of this report are employed by RBC Dominion Securities Inc., a securities broker-dealer with principal offices
located in Toronto, Canada.
Additional Disclosures
The information contained in this report has been compiled by RBC Capital Markets (“RBC CM”) from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or
warranty, express or implied, is made by Royal Bank of Canada, RBC CM, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. RBC
May 9, 2005 7
RBC Capital Markets IGM Financial
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May 9, 2005 8