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CHAPTER 17
PROBABILISTIC OIL OUTFLOW
17.1 OVERVIEW 2
Input File Descriptions 4
Output File Descriptions 5
17.2 CALCULATION METHODOLOGY 6
1) Evaluation of Intact Condition 6
2) Development of the Damage Cases 6
3) Calculation of Oil Outflow 10
4) Calculation of Oil Outflow Parameters 11
5) Calculation of Pollution Prevention Index “E” 12
17.3 PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS 12
General 12
Development of Damage Cases for Side Damage 12
Development of Damage Cases for Bottom Damage 19
17.4 MEMORY AND COMPUTATION SPEED CONSIDERATIONS 25
General 25
Modeling Considerations 25
Adjusting Factors for the Probability Function Step-wise Evaluation 26
Deactivating Probability Function Factors 27
Revising the SIZE.DAT File 27
17.5 STEP-BY-STEP EVALUATION 28
Side Damage 30
Bottom Damage 32
17.6 PROGRAM USAGE AND DATA ENTRY 36
Data Entry 36
Chapter 17 Probabilistic Oil Outflow Analysis
17.1 OVERVIEW
The Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program enables you to evaluate oil outflow in accordance with
the IMO document “ANNEX 1, Interim Guidelines for the Approval of Alternative Tanker
Designs under Reg. 13F of Annex I of MARPOL 73/78” dated July, 1994.
The IMO probabilistic oil outflow methodology is a risk-based analysis which provides a practical
way to quantify the environmental performance of a vessel with regards to oil outflow. The IMO
Guidelines are intended for evaluating alternatives to double hull tankers, but they also provide an
effective means for comparing cargo tank subdivision alternatives.
The methodology of the Guidelines is based on a statistical analysis of past collisions and
groundings of tankers. Independent calculations are carried out for side and bottom damage, and
these results are combined in a 40:60 ratio.
Two alternative calculation methods are presented in the Guidelines. The Probabilistic Oil
Outflow Program provides the capability of analyzing the oil outflow with either method.
The “conceptual” method assumes the vessel always survives the casualty, and damage stability
calculations are not required. Total outflow is assumed from each cargo tank damaged in the side
damage (collision) cases. For bottom damage, the vessel is assumed to rest on the ground at its
initial intact drafts, with zero trim and heel. Oil loss for each damaged tank is based on
hydrostatic balance principles.
The “survivability” method requires damage stability calculations for each damage case.
Survivability is assessed in accordance with the IMO regulation 25(3) of Annex I of MARPOL
73/78. If the vessel does not survive, it is assumed that all oil onboard the vessel is lost for that
particular damage case. When the vessel survives, total outflow is assumed for cargo oil tanks
breached in side damage cases. For bottom damage, outflow is computed based on pressure-
balance calculations with the vessel at the equilibrium waterline.
The IMO Guidelines call for development of three parameters: the probability of zero outflow,
mean outflow, and extreme outflow. These parameters are computed in the Probabilistic Oil
Outflow Program after all damage calculations are completed. If an alternative tanker design is
being compared to a reference double hull design in accordance with the IMO Guidelines, a
pollution prevention index “E” is developed by substituting the outflow parameters for the new
design and the reference design into a formula provided in the Guidelines. This final step in the
analysis is not included in the Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program, but is easily evaluated with a
spreadsheet program.
The calculations are carried out on the hull form as defined in the Hull Input Program, and the
compartments as defined in the Compartment Input Program. The Probabilistic Oil Outflow
Program differs from the Salvage Response Program in that the intact condition is specified by
entering the fore and aft drafts, VCG, LCG, and TCG, instead of defining the intact condition by a
detailed load case. Therefore, the ship data (.SDA) file need not be developed to run the
Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program.
page 17-2
PROBABILISTIC OIL OUTFLOW PROGRAM MENU
File Load Damage Case Description File (.DCA)

Save Damage Case Description File (.DCA)
Gen.Info Name, Date, etc.

Units and Precision
Analysis Type
DataEntry Drafts and Heel Angles

Tidal Change Data
Default Compartment Status
Oil Tank Damage Locations
Capture Tank Damage Locations
Capture Tank Data
Rescue Tank Data
Revise Damage Case
Damage Cases from Probability Functions Side Damage Evalustion
Bottom Damage Evalustion
Calcs Full Survivability Analysis

Conceptual Analysis
Evaluation Specify Total Oil Carried

Full Survivability Analysis
Conceptual Analysis
Display Oil Outflow Parameters

Oil Outflow Table
General Description
Print Pollution Prevention Index Summary

Oil Outflow Summary
Default Compartment Data
Damage Case Data (Abridged)
Option Calc. Precision

Damage Stability Criteria
Dynamic Oil Outflow Parameters
Rescue Tank Analysis Parameters
EXIT
page 17-3
The key entry menu of the Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program is shown in Figure 17-1.
Figure 17-1
Input File Descriptions

The following files are accessed by the Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program:
Extension Description Created by Required for

which program this program
.HUL Hull Offsets Hull Offset Entry Program Yes
.CML Compartment Access Data Compartment Entry Program Yes
.CMA Appended Compartment Descriptions Compartment Entry Program No
.DCA Damage Case Description Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program No
.CPT Conceptual Analysis Descriptor Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program No
.DAM Damage Results Description Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program No
The .HUL, .CML, .CMP, and related .CMA files are required to develop and evaluate the damage
cases with the Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program. They are automatically requested before the
main menu bar is presented.
.DCA files are accessed under on the main menu bar. The .DCA file contains a list of
damage cases and development data that may be evaluated using the program.
The .CPT and .DAM files are developed in the Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program during the
calculation phase, and accessed during the evaluation phase.
page 17-4
Output File Descriptions
Extension Description Used by Required by

which programs this program
.DCA Damage Case Description Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program No
.CPT Conceptual Analysis Descriptor Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program No
.DAM Damage Results Description Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program No
The .DCA file contains the list of all damage cases with the associated damage compartments.
The file is normally saved once the side or bottom damage case combinations are developed from
the probability functions.
The .CPT files contain the oil outflow results for the “conceptual” analysis from either the side
damage evaluation, or the bottom damage evaluation at a given tide condition. The name of the
.CPT file is comprised of the following parts:
File Name = Root Name + Damage Type Identifier + Tide Letter + .CPT
The root name can be any three-letter identifier, but it is defaulted to the first three letters of the
ship's name. The Damage Type Identified is either an “S” indicating side damage, or “B”
indicating bottom damage. The Tide Letter is always “A” for side damage files. For bottom
damage, the Tide Letter is “A”, “B” or “C” corresponding to the specified tidal condition.
The .DAM file contains the results of the damage stability calculations for a given damage case.
The name of the .DAM file is comprised of the following parts:
File Name = Root Name + ID Number + Draft Letter + .DAM
The root name can be any four-letter identifier, but it is defaulted to the first four letters of the
ship's name. The I.D. number corresponds to the damage case number.
Calculated results for individual damage conditions are saved in separate files with extension
.DAM. These files contain all the information required for a complete printout of the damage
results for that specific condition. Large matrices can generate many of these files. Since a
complete damage stability analysis for a specific vessel will contain many different damage runs,
each one requiring its own separate damage calculation, the total computation time can be
somewhat lengthy. While the individual damage calculations are performed quickly, a large run
may take several hours. For this reason, the estimate of time to completion is displayed at the
bottom of the screen during the calculations. This is useful for budgeting time and work load.
After specifying which damage runs to calculate, the user may run the calculations and leave the
machine to attend to other tasks.
page 17-5
17.2 CALCULATION METHODOLOGY

The probabilistic evaluation of oil outflow can be broken down into five steps:
1) Evaluation of the intact (pre-damage) condition.

2) Development of the damage cases and their associated probabilities of occurrence.
3) Calculation of oil outflow for each damage case.
4) Calculation of oil outflow parameters from damage case results.
5) Combine outflow parameters to determine Pollution Prevention Index “E”.
Steps 2) through 4) are performed independently for bottom and side damage evaluations.
1) Evaluation of Intact Condition

Before beginning the probabilistic oil outflow analysis, the user must first define the intact
condition prior to damage. This can be done in the Intact Loading Program, provided an .SDA
file has been developed. If the evaluation is being performed in strict conformance with the IMO
Guidelines, then all cargo oil tanks must be filled to 98% capacity with a density which brings the
vessel to its loadline draft.
2) Development of the Damage Cases

Damage statistics are generally presented as graphs of probability density distributions. The area
under the probability density curve between two points on the horizontal axis is the probability
that the quantity will fall within that range. The density distribution scales are normalized by ship
length for longitudinal location and extent, by ship breadth for transverse location and transverse
extent, and by ship depth for vertical location and vertical extent. Statistics for location, extent,
and penetration are developed separately for side and bottom damage cases.
For side damage, the probability of a given damage longitudinal location, longitudinal extent,
transverse penetration, vertical location and vertical extent is the product of the probability of the
location, times the probability of the length, times the probability of the transverse extent of
damage, times the probability of the vertical location, times the probability of the vertical extent
of damage. Similarly, bottom damage includes evaluation of the longitudinal location of damage,
longitudinal extent, vertical penetration, transverse location, and transverse extent.
The probability distribution functions as contained in the IMO Guidelines are presented as Figure
17-2 through Figure 17-11. Based on the damage extents and locations covered by the density
functions, a complete set of compartment groupings is developed. Each compartment group
represents those tanks which can be breached from a given combination of damage location,
extent, and penetration.
Application of the probability density functions for damage extent and location to these groupings
provides the probability of occurrence of each damage incident. The cumulative probability of
occurrence of all the damage incidents defined in this way is 1.0.
page 17-6
Probability Distribution for Side Damage Location

fs1
Prob. Density 1.2
0.8
Longitudinal Location
0.6
0.4
0.2
0 X
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
A.P. Long'l Location F.P.
Side Damage Density Distribution - Longitudinal Location

Figure 17-2
Probability Distribution for Side Damage Length

fs 2
14
11.95
12
Prob. Density
10
Longitudinal Extent
8
6
3.5
4
2 0.35
0.35
0 y
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
Damage Length/Ship Length
Side Damage Density Distribution - Length

Figure 17-3
fs 3 Probability Distribution for Side Penetration

Prob. Density
24.96
25
20
Transverse Penetration
15
10
5.0
5
0.56 0.56
0 zt
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
Transverse Penetration/Ship Beam
Side Damage Density Distribution - Transverse Penetration

Figure 17-4
page 17-7
Probability Distribution for Side Damage Vertical Extent

fs 4
4
3.83
Prob. Density
3
Vertical Extent
1
0.5
0.5
0 Zv
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Demage Extent/Ship Depth
Side Damage Density Distribution - Vertical Extent

Figure 17-5
Probability Distribution for Side Damage Vertical Location

fs 5
2.0
Prob. Density
1.5
1.5 1.5
1.0 Vertical Location
0.5
0.25
0
0.0 zl
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1
Vertical Location/Ship Depth
Side Damage Density Distribution - Vertical Location

Figure 17-6
Probability Distribution for Grounding Damage Location

fb1
Prob. Density 3.0
2.6
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
A.P. Long'l Location F.P.
Bottom Damage Density Distribution - Longitudinal Location

Figure 17-7
page 17-8
Probability Distribution for Grounding Damage Length

fb2
5.0
4.5
Prob. Density 4.0
Longitudinal Extent
3.0
2.0
1.0 0.5 0.5
0.0 y
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Damage Length/Ship Length
Bottom Damage Density Distribution - Length

Figure 17-8
fb3 Probability Distribution for Grounding Damage Vertical Penetration

Prob. Density
16
14.5
14
12 Vertical Penetration
10
2 1.1 1.1
0 zv
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
Vertical Penetration/Ship Depth
Bottom Damage Density Distribution - Vertical Penetration

Figure 17-9
fb4 Probability Distribution for Grounding Damage Transverse Extent

Prob. Density
4
4.0
3.5
3.0
Transverse Extent
2.5
2.0
1.5 1.6
1.0
0.4 0.4
0.5
0.0 b
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Transvers e P enetration/Ship Beam
Bottom Damage Density Distribution - Transverse Extent

Figure 17-10
page 17-9
Prob. Density
fb5 Probability Distribution for Grounding Damage Transverse Location
1.2
1.0
1.0
0.8
Transverse Location
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0 b
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
Transvere Location
Bottom Damage Density Distribution - Transverse Location

Figure 17-11
3) Calculation of Oil Outflow

For side damage, all of the oil in a damaged cargo tank is assumed to outflow into the sea. For the
“conceptual” analysis, the outflow for each side damage case is simply the sum of the volumes of
oil carried in each of the damaged cargo oil tanks. For bottom damage, a pressure balance
calculation is performed for each damage case. The vessel is assumed to remain stranded on a
shelf at its original draft. For the “conceptual” analysis, zero trim and zero heel are assumed.
For the “survivability” analysis only, damage stability calculations are run on each tank grouping
or damage case to determine the equilibrium condition and residual stability. If the damage case
fails to meet the damage stability survivability criteria, the ship is assumed lost, and 100% of all
cargo oil onboard is assumed to outflow into the sea. Survivability for free-floating damaged
conditions is based on a comparison with the IMO regulation 25(3) of Annex I of MARPOL
73/78. These limits are as follows:
Equilibrium Heel Angle Maximum 25 degrees.
Righting Arm Maximum residual righting lever of at least 0.1 meters.
Range of Positive Stability Range of positive stability beyond the equilibrium heel angle of
at least 20 degrees.
Progressive Downflooding Downflooding points such as overflows and air pipes for all
non-breached compartments shall not be immersed at the
equilibrium waterline.
When running the “survivability” analysis for stranded conditions, it is assumed that the vessel is
stranded on a shelf extending over 80% of the length of the vessel. If the vessel is found to be
free-floating due to outflow of oil, free-floating calculations are performed and the results applied
in lieu of the stranding calculations. If, due to outflow, one end of the vessel lifts off the shelf,
single point contact is assumed at the other end of the shelf and iterative calculations are
page 17-10
performed to determine the final trimmed waterline. It is assumed that the vessel is aground over
her full beam, and that the ground contact restricts heeling of the vessel.
4) Calculation of Oil Outflow Parameters

Once all possible damage combinations have been evaluated, they are placed in descending order
as a function of oil outflow. A running sum of probabilities is computed, beginning at the
minimum outflow damage case and proceeding to the maximum outflow damage case.
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF OIL OUTFLOW
Figure 17-12
Typical Cumulative Probability Of Oil Outflow Chart
The cumulative probability of oil outflow plot provides a picture of a vessel's ability to resist oil
spillage when damaged. On the sample plot, Figure 17-12, the oil outflow corresponding to a
cumulative probability of 0.8 is 30,000 barrels. This means that 80% of the time, the outflow
from a collision or grounding will not exceed 30,000 barrels. It therefore follows that 20% of the
time, outflows in excess of 30,000 barrels can be expected.
Independent oil outflow tables are developed for side and bottom (grounding) damage. The three
outflow parameters (the probability of zero outflow, mean outflow and extreme outflow) are then
computed as explained below. In accordance with the IMO Guidelines, bottom damage
calculations are run for 0.0 m, 2.0 m and 6.0 m tidal changes, and combined by applying weighing
factors of 40%, 50% and 10% respectively. The side damage and bottom damage results are
combined by applying weighing factors of 40% and 60% respectively.
The three oil outflow parameters are labeled in Figure 17-12 and described below.
page 17-11
Probability of Zero Outflow: This parameter represents the probability that no oil will
be released into the environment. For the vessel depicted in Figure 17-12, the probability
of zero outflow is 0.28. That is, there will be no oil outflow 28% of the time. Conversely,
72% of the time, collisions or strandings will result in some level of oil outflow.
Mean Outflow: The sum of the products of each damage case probability and the
computed outflow for that damage case yields the mean (expected value) of oil outflow.
Extreme (1/10) Outflow: This value represents the "worst case" spill scenario, and is a
weighted average of the upper 10% of all casualties. The products of each damage case
probability with a cumulative probability between 0.90 and 1.0 and its corresponding oil
outflow are summed, and the result divided by 0.10.
5) Calculation of Pollution Prevention Index “E”

The oil pollution prevention index “E” is computed in accordance with the following formula
provided in the IMO Guidelines. To attain equivalency to the double hull reference design, the
index “E” must be greater than or equal to 1.0.
E = (0.5)(PO)/(POR) + (0.4)(0.01 + OMR)/(0.01 + OM) + (0.1)(0.025 + OER)/(0.025 + OE) >= 1.0
where:
PO = parameter for probability of zero outflow for the alternative design
OM = mean oil outflow parameter for the alternative design
OE = extreme oil outflow parameter for the alternative design
POR, OMR and OER are the corresponding parameters for the reference double hull design of
the same cargo oil capacity.
This final step in the analysis is not included in the Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program, but is
easily evaluated with a spreadsheet program.
17.3 PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS

General
The rigorous application of the probability distribution functions to a tanker arrangement is a
calculation intensive process. Certain assumptions have been made when developing the code for
the Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program, in order to reduce the length of time required for the
analysis. This section contains background on these assumptions, and discusses options available
to the user to further control computation time and memory requirements.
Development of Damage Cases for Side Damage

The damage density distribution functions contained in the IMO Guidelines provide independent
statistics for location, length, and penetration. For side damage, the probability of a given damage
page 17-12
longitudinal location, longitudinal extent, transverse penetration, vertical location, and vertical
extent is the product of the probability of the location, times the probability of the length, times
the probability of the transverse extent of damage, times the probability of the vertical location,
times the probability of the vertical extent of damage.
The Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program use a step-wise process for applying the probability
distribution functions to a specific hull and its compartmentation. The approach involves stepping
through each damage location and extent at a sufficiently fine increment. The algorithms used in
the program are nested, moving through the probability density functions in the following order:
Longitudinal Extent
Transverse Penetration
Vertical Location
Vertical Extent
The probability of each step is equal to the area under the probability density distribution over that
increment. The probability for each damage incident is the product of the probabilities of the five
functions. There are many redundant incidents which damage identical compartments. These are
combined by summing their probabilities.
Default factors for step-wise evaluation of the side damage distribution functions are as follows:
Longitudinal Location .01 x Subdivision Length = .01L
Longitudinal Extent .01 x Subdivision Length = .01L
Transverse Penetration .001 x Subdivision Beam = .001B
Vertical Location .01 x Subdivision Depth = .01D
Vertical Extent .01 x Subdivision Depth = .01D
These are the maximum extents of the probability functions:

Longitudinal Location L
Longitudinal Extent 0.3L
Transverse Penetration 0.3B
Vertical Location D
Vertical Extent D
Therefore, use of the default factors will result in (100)(30)(300)(100)(100) = 9 x 10 9, or 9 billion

damage incidents. For a typical double hull tanker, the 9 billion damage incidents reduce down to
100 to 400 unique groupings of compartments.
It is clear that evaluating 9 billion separate loops or damage incidents will involve considerable
computation time, even when running on the fastest of PC’s. Therefore, the program does as
much pre-processing of data as possible and makes certain simplifying assumptions. These are
discussed below.
Application of Damage Extents:

Longitudinal Location: The longitudinal location XL is taken to the center of damage, and
covers a range over the specified sub-division length. The program assumes that the sub-division
length is centered at amidships. In accordance with the IMO Guidelines, the range of X L should
extend between perpendiculars, and therefore you should normally apply the LBP (length between
perpendiculars) as your sub-division length when evaluating probabilistic oil outflow.
page 17-13
Longitudinal Extent: The probability density function gives the longitudinal extent in non-
dimensional form. It is multiplied by the sub-division length (normally the LBP) to obtain the
damage extent XL in meters. The longitudinal extent XE is taken as centered about the
longitudinal location X L.
Transverse Penetration: The probability density function gives the transverse penetration as a
dimensionless variable relative to the ship’s beam. It is multiplied by the sub-division beam
(normally the maximum beam) to obtain the penetration Z E in meters. The transverse penetration
is measured from the shell at side in way of the specified sub-division draft.
Vertical Location of Damage: The probability density function gives the vertical location as a
dimensionless vertical distance between the baseline and the ship’s depth. It is multiplied by the
sub-division depth (normally the depth to the main deck at side) to obtain the vertical location YL
in meters above the baseline.
Vertical Extent of Damage: The probability density function gives a dimensionless vertical
extent relative to the ship’s depth. It is multiplied by the sub-division depth to obtain the vertical
extent of damage in meters. The vertical extent YE is taken as centered about the vertical location
Y L.
Hull symmetry: The hull and all compartmentation are assumed symmetrical about the ship’s
centerline. The side damage evaluation is carried out for the starboard side only.
Note: If the compartmentation is asymmetrical about the ship’s centerline, it is necessary to

create a second set of compartment data with the port compartments modeled to starboard.
Then, run side damage calculations for both models, and average the results.
page 17-14
Figure 17-13
Side (Collision) Damage Extents
page 17-15
Compartment Damage (Section View): The transverse penetration is measured from the shell at
side in way of the specified sub-division draft. If a vertical surface located at the extent of
transverse penetration extends beyond the starboard-most point on the tank at the section being
evaluated, then the tank is considered breached. In Figure 17-14, the transverse penetration ZE is
greater than the distance to the compartment “C”. Therefore, tank COTS is considered breached.
Figure 17-14
Side Damage with Full Vertical Extent (Section View)
Note: When vertical location and extent of damage are being considered, these simplifications
may result in an over-estimation of damage and subsequently of oil outflow. As illustrated
in Figure 17-15, this will occur when the tank bulkhead has significant inclination.
Whereas breaching of the COTS tank will only occur when the transverse extent of damage
exceeds Z, the program assumes breaching of the tank as soon as the extent exceeds C.
Figure 17-15
Side Damage with Partial Vertical Extent (Section View)
page 17-16
Compartment Damage (Plan View): The distance between the side shell and the compartment is
evaluated at the ends of each compartment, and in way of double stations (i.e., two stations with
identical longitudinal locations). To speed calculations, at each of these locations the clearance to
the side shell at the sub-division draft and the compartment is computed in advance of the step-
wise evaluation. Intermediate values are then obtained by linear interpolation.
For example, the compartment shown below is modeled with six stations. Stations 3 and 4 are at
the same longitudinal location. In the pre-processing mode, the maximum extents of penetration
before breaching the compartment (C1, C3, C4 and C6) are computed. For the damage location and
extent shown, the transverse distance C x is found by linearly interpolating between C 1 and C3. In
this case, the transverse damage penetration ZE exceeds the compartment clearance Cx, and the
compartment COTS is breached.
Figure 17-16
Side Damage (Plan View)
page 17-17
Compartment Damage (Elevation): The height from the baseline of the top and bottom of the
compartment is evaluated at the ends of each compartment, and in way of double stations. To
speed calculations, at each of these locations these heights are computed in advance of the step-
For example, the compartment shown in Figure 17-17 is modeled with six stations. Stations 3 and
4 are at the same longitudinal location. In the pre-processing mode, the local top and bottom of
the compartment (YT1, YT3, YT4, YT6 and YB1, YB3, YB4, and YB6) are computed. For the damage
vertical location and extent shown, the local definitions of Y B is found by linearly interpolating
between YB5 and YB6. In this case, the vertical damage extent Y E is below the compartment local
bottom, YBx, and the compartment COTS is not breached.
Figure 17-17
Side Damage (Elevation)
page 17-18
Development of Damage Cases for Bottom Damage

For bottom damage, the probability of a given damage longitudinal location, longitudinal extent,
vertical penetration, transverse location, and transverse extent is the product of the probability of
the location, times the probability of the length, times the probability of the vertical penetration,
times the probability of the transverse location, times the probability of the transverse extent of
damage.
The algorithms used in the program are nested, moving through the probability density functions
in the following order:
Longitudinal Extent
Vertical Penetration
Transverse Location
Transverse Extent
Default factors for step-wise evaluation of the bottom damage distribution functions are as
follows:
Longitudinal Location .01 x Subdivision Length = .01L
Longitudinal Extent .01 x Subdivision Length = .01L
Vertical Penetration .001 x Subdivision Depth = .001D
Transverse Location .01 x Subdivision Beam = .01B
Transverse Extent .01 x Subdivision Beam = .01B
These are the maximum extents of the probability functions:

Longitudinal Location L
Longitudinal Extent 0.8L
Vertical Penetration 0.3B
Transverse Location D
Transverse Extent D
Application of the default factors will result in (100)(80)(300)(50)(100) = 12 x 10 9, or 12 billion

damage incidents. For a typical double hull tanker, the 12 billion damage incidents reduce down to
300 to 700 unique groupings of compartments. Assumptions made in the bottom damage
evaluation are as follows:
Application of Damage Extents:

Longitudinal Location: The longitudinal location XL is taken to the center of damage, and
covers a range over the specified sub-division length. The program assumes that the sub-division
length is centered at amidships. In accordance with the IMO Guidelines, the range of X L should
extend between perpendiculars, and therefore you should normally apply the LBP (length between
perpendiculars) as your sub-division length when evaluating probabilistic oil outflow.
Longitudinal Extent: The probability density function gives the longitudinal extent in non-
dimensional form. It is multiplied by the sub-division length (normally the LBP) to obtain the
damage extent XL in meters. The longitudinal extent XE is taken as centered about the
longitudinal location X L.
page 17-19
Vertical Penetration: The probability density function gives the transverse penetration as a
dimensionless variable relative to the ship’s beam. It is multiplied by the sub-division beam
(normally the maximum beam) to obtain the penetration YE in meters. The vertical penetration is
measured upwards from the lowest point on the hull as the longitudinal location being evaluated..
Transverse Location of Damage: The probability density function gives the transverse location
as a dimensionless location relative to the ship’s breadth. The program determines the breadth BX
at the longitudinal center of damage XE, and through a waterline equal to the maximum vertical
extent of damage (0.3 x Depth). Symmetry is assumed. Therefore, the center of damage location
ZL about the ship’s centerline ranges from centerline to 0.5B X to starboard. To provide the full
ship outflow results, the computed outflow values are doubled.
Transverse Extent of Damage: The probability density function gives a dimensionless

transverse extent relative to the ship’s breadth. It is multiplied by the sub-division breadth
(normally the maximum beam) to obtain the transverse extent of damage in meters. It is assumed
that the transverse extent ZE is centered about the transverse location ZL.
Hull symmetry: The hull and all compartmentation are assumed symmetrical about the ship’s
centerline. The bottom damage evaluation is carried out for the starboard side only.
Note: It is important to properly model both port and starboard compartmentation. Although the
center of transverse damage is evaluated only on the starboard side, the transverse extent
can extend over the full beam, thereby damaging both port and starboard compartments.
page 17-20
Figure 17-18
Bottom (Grounding) Damage Extents
page 17-21
Compartment Damage (Section View): The vertical penetration is measured upwards from the
lowest point of the section. If a horizontal plane located at the extent of vertical penetration is
above the lowest point on the compartment being evaluated, then the compartment is considered
breached. In Figure 17-19 the vertical penetration YE is greater than the lowest point in the
compartment YBOTTOM. Therefore, tank COTS is considered breached.
Figure 17-19
Bottom Damage (Section View)
Note: When the tank bottom has significant inclination, this may result in an over-estimation of
outflow. Whereas breaching of the COTS tank would not actually occur for the damage
extent indicated in Figure 17-20, the program assumes breaching of the tank as the lowest
point Y BOTTOM is lower than the upper edge of the damage extent YE.
Figure 17-20
Bottom Damage with Sloped Longitudinal Bulkheads (Section View)
page 17-22
Compartment Damage (Plan View): The transverse location of the compartment boundaries are
evaluated at the ends of each compartment, and in way of double stations (i.e., two stations with
identical longitudinal locations). To speed up calculations, at each of these locations the distance
off centerline is determined at a waterline located at the maximum vertical penetration (30% of
the subdivision depth). This is done in advance of the step-wise evaluation, and intermediate
values are then obtained by linear interpolation.
For example, the compartment shown below is modeled with six stations. Stations 3 and 4 are at
the same longitudinal location. In the pre-processing mode, the maximum extents of penetration
before breaching the compartment (C1, C3, C4 and C6) are computed. For the damage location and
extent shown, the transverse distance C X is found by linearly interpolating between C 1 and C3. In
this case, the damage extent ZE falls within the compartment port and starboard boundaries
(i.e. ZL-0.5 x ZE > 0 and ZL-0.5ZE < CX) , and the compartment COTS is breached.
Figure 17-21 Bottom Damage (Plan View)
page 17-23
Compartment Damage (Elevation): The height from the baseline of the top and bottom of the
compartment is evaluated at the ends of each compartment, and in way of double stations. To
speed calculations, at each of these locations these heights are computed in advance of the step-
For example, the compartment shown in Figure 17-22 is modeled with six stations. Stations 3 and
4 are at the same longitudinal location. In the pre-processing mode, the local top and bottom of
the compartment (YT1, YT3, YT4, YT6 and YB1, YB3, YB4, and YB6) are computed. For the damage
vertical location and extent shown, the local definitions of Y B is found by linearly interpolating
between YB5 and YB6. In this case, the vertical damage extent Y E is below the compartment local
bottom, YBx, and the compartment COTS is not breached.
Figure 17-22
Bottom Damage (Elevation)
page 17-24
17.4 MEMORY AND COMPUTATION SPEED

CONSIDERATIONS
General
The large number of damage cases which must be developed and then analyzed strain the limits of
the personal computer. Therefore, when modeling and analyzing a vessel, careful attention should
be paid to both memory and calculation speed considerations. This section presents suggestions
for modeling and recommendations for controlling the time required for calculations.
Modeling Considerations
Simplifications for the Conceptual Analysis: When carrying out a “conceptual” analysis,
compartments fore and aft of the cargo block can be combined into single compartments without
influencing the outflow results. For instance, for the vessel shown in Figure 17-23, the fore peak,
storeroom forward, and forecastle can be modeled as a single compartment, and the engine room,
aft peak, and steering gear room as another compartment. This will reduce the number of damage
cases for both bottom and side damage analyses.
Note: The IMO Guidelines assumed a certain portion of the oil outflow in bottom damage
evaluations is captured by the double bottom tanks. Therefore, double bottom tanks and all
cargo oil tanks within the cargo block must be independently modeled.
Figure 17-23
page 17-25
Arrangement of Inner Longitudinal Bulkheads: For the vessel shown in Figure 17-24, the inner
longitudinal bulkhead slants inboard in way of the aft cargo oil and slop tanks, and also in way of
the fwd cargo oil tanks. If this slanting of the bulkhead is ignored and it is modeled parallel to
centerline, the impact on outflow results is very small. However, the number of damage cases for
the bottom damage evaluation is significantly reduced.
Figure 17-24
Accuracy of Models: It is important that the tank boundaries are accurately located, as the
program will differentiate between boundaries that are out of alignment by more that 0.01 mm.
For example, if the double bottom is horizontal with a height of 2.30 meters, it is important that
each tank is modeled with this exact height. If one tank is mistakenly modeled with a double
bottom height of 2.31 meters, the number of damage cases for the bottom damage analysis will
increase significantly.
Adjusting Factors for the Probability Function Step-wise Evaluation

The default factors for step-wise evaluation produce a high level of accuracy for most tankage
configurations. An increase in these factors is possible in many cases without significantly
influencing results. For instance, we have found that doubling the factors for longitudinal
location and extent generally influences outflow results by less than 1%.
The advantage realized by increasing the factors is that the computation time required to apply the
probability density functions is reduced. For instance, doubling the factor for longitudinal
location of damage from 0.01 to 0.02 will nearly half the calculation time. Calculation time is
reduced by nearly four times if the factors for both longitudinal location and extent are doubled.
The default factors for transverse penetration for side damage and vertical penetration for bottom
damage are set at comparatively low values (.001). This is because of the sensitivity of the results
to these factors. To reduce computation time, the program code has been optimized for these
parameters. Once the compartment boundaries have been identified, the assumed penetration is
incremented until the next compartment is reached. Thus, the program steps through these fine
increments with a minimum amount of data processing.
page 17-26
Increasing the various factors will reduce the computation time, but it should not substantially
reduce the number of damage cases. If the number of damage cases is reduced, if probably means
that the factors are too large and you are skipping over some of the damage cases.
Deactivating Probability Function Factors

There may be certain times when some of the probability function factors can be deactivated
without significantly influencing results. For instance, if a tanker has no horizontal sub-division,
the factors for vertical location and extents of damage can be deactivated when evaluating side
damage. This will significantly reduce computation time, often from several hours to a few
minutes.
Even when double bottoms provide horizontal sub-division, deactivating the vertical location and
extent of damage may still be appropriate. A review of the density functions for vertical location
and extent of damage reveals that the likelihood of breaching a double bottom tank without
damaging the cargo tank above is very small. For instance, for a typical 150,000 DWT double
hull tanker, the depth might be 24.0 meters and the double bottom height 2.32 meters. The
probability of penetrating the double bottom only when this vessel is subject to side damage is
about 1/1000.
Revising the SIZE.DAT File

When program execution is initated, arrays are created with dimensions which provide space for
the damage case descriptions and associated probabilities. These array sizes are controlled by the
following variables contained in the [DAMSIZE] section of the SIZE.DAT file.
Damage Cases = 500

Damaged Compartments in All Damage Cases = 5000
These particular settings will permit 500 damage cases to be developed, with an average of ten
damaged compartments per damage case. Because Error! Reference source not found. currently
operates in the DOS environment, the memory utilized by the Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program
must not exceed the “largest executable program size” space available within the 640Kb of
memory set aside for DOS applications.
If you find the vessel model you are evaluating exceeds the specified number of damage cases or
damaged compartments, the above parameters can be increased. However, increasing the
SIZE.DAT parameters will increase memory allocation. It may be necessary to free up additional
memory by eliminating “memory resident” programs or pushing applications into high memory.
page 17-27
17.5 STEP-BY-STEP EVALUATION

Data flow diagrams outlining the evaluation process for side and bottom damage calculations are
provided as Figure 17-25 and Figure 17-26 respectively. This section also contains step-by-step
procedures for both side (collision) and bottom (stranding) evaluations.
|Drafts and Heel Angles|

Specify Intact Condition
|Default Compartment Status|

Specify Oil Tanks, then %Full and Density
for Oil Tanks
Change Default Compartment Status (%Full, Perm., Density, Pressure)
|Damage Case from Probability Functions|

Create .DCA for Side Damage Evaluation
|File|
Save .DCA File
|Calcs|
Create Conceptual (.CPT) or Full
Survivability (.DAM) files
Load a new .HUL file with a different Margin Line Definition

|Evaluation|
Specify Total Oil Carried for Full
Survivability Analysis
|Options|
Specify different
|Evaluation| survival criteria,
Evaluate either the Conceptual or or other
Full Survivability Analysis parameters
|Display| or |Print|
Display or Print Results
|EXIT|
Exit to HECSALV
Control Program
Figure 17-25
Side Damage Evaluation
page 17-28
|Drafts and Heel Angles|

Specify Intact Condition
|Default Compartment Status|

Specify Oil Tanks, then %Full and Density
for Oil Tanks
Change Default Compartment Status (%Full, Perm., Density, Pressure)
|Damage Case from Probability Functions|

Create .DCA for Bottom Damage Evaluation
|File|
Save .DCA File
|Calcs|
Create Conceptual (.CPT) or Full
Survivability (.DAM) files
Load a new .HUL file with a different Margin Line Definition

|Evaluation|
Specify Total Oil Carried for Full
Survivability Analysis
|Options|
Specify different
|Evaluation| survival criteria,
Evaluate either the Conceptual or or other
Full Survivability Analysis parameters
|Display| or |Print|
Display or Print Results
|EXIT|
Exit to HECSALV
Control Program
Figure 17-26
Bottom Damage Evaluation
page 17-29
Side Damage
Listed below is a step-by-step procedure for the side damage oil outflow evaluation.

: Enter the DRAFT at A.P., DRAFT at F.P., VCG and
TCG for the intact ship. For evaluations in accordance with the IMO Guidelines, the vessel is
assumed to be at its loadline draft with zero trim and zero heel. Therefore, the DRAFT at A.P.
and the DRAFT at F.P. are set equal to the loadline draft and the TCG is typically set equal to
zero.
The heel angles listed on this screen are be applied for the heeling moment calculations if
survivability calculations are carried out. The default values are appropriate for the IMO
Guideline calculations.

: Cursor through the list of compartments. If the
highlighted compartment is a cargo oil tank, press the [F7] function key. The designation “OIL”
should appear under the “COMP. TYPE” column opposite of each cargo oil tank.
Enter the % full and density (or specific volume) for each tank that is fully or partially full in the
intact condition. This can be done for all cargo oil tanks simultaneously by pressing the [F4]
key and entering the desired values.

: Select this
option to develop the damage cases and associated probabilities for the side damage condition.
The subdivision draft defaults to the specified intact draft. Length, beam and depth default to the
values read from the hull offset (.HUL) file.
The option to specify the “Probability Density Functions” is included, since we anticipate that
additional functions will be added in the future. However, only the probability distribution
functions contained in the IMO Guidelines are currently available.
Default factors are provided for the increments to be applied when evaluating the location and
extent probability density functions. The influence of these factors on the outflow calculations
are explained in Section 17-3 and Section 17-4. In general, the default factors are suitable. If the
subject vessel does not have any horizontal sub-division or if the only horizontal sub-division is
the double bottom, the vertical damage extent and location can be ignored without significantly
impacting the results. These functions are deactivated by pressing the [F4] key. This will result
in a considerable reduction in computation time.
Once you are satisfied with the data, press [F3] to begin calculations.

: Select this option and you will see a list of the damage cases
which have been developed for the side damage scenario. Cursor to any one of the damage cases
and press [Enter]. For the selected damage case, a list of damaged compartments with their
respective properties is displayed. The probability of occurrence for this particular damage case is
shown in the upper-right corner of the screen.
page 17-30
Note: The permeability, % full, density (or specific gravity) and compartment type are displayed
for each damaged compartment. These correspond to the values entered in

. If you need to globally change any of these values, return
to

and revise the values. Upon exiting the
screen, you will be asked if you want all damage cases to be revised with the new values.
: Save the damage cases descriptions as a .DCA

file now. Development of the damage cases is a calculation intensive and therefore time
consuming process. By saving the .DCA file, you can retrieve and analyze this data in the future
without having to redevelop the damage case descriptions.
Conceptual Analysis for Side Damage:

: A screen will appear allowing you to modify the file descriptor
for the .CPT file name. Press [F3] to begin calculations. Conceptual calculations for side
damage require minimal time, since damage stability calculations are not required and 100%
outflow is assumed for each breached cargo tank. The results are saved to the disk as a .CPT file.

: Specify the desired units for the oil outflow summary
tables. The total oil onboard need not be specified, as it is not required input for the “conceptual”
analysis.
: A screen will appear allowing you to specify the file
descriptor and path for the .CPT file. Once these are correct, press [F3] to proceed. A screen
will appear allowing you to select the condition to be evaluated. The program defaults to the
“SIDE DAMAGE - A” condition which is the first option available. This is the desired .CPT file,
so simply press [F3] to proceed.

: The

menu option allows you to
review the three outflow parameters, and the displays the cumulative
probabilities for all damage cases, together with their associated oil outflow volumes.
Survivability Analysis for Side Damage

: This screen allows you to specify the file descriptor, path
and first and last damage cases to be computed. Press [F3] to begin calculations. Complete
damage stability calculations are carried out for the damage cases, so the calculation time may be
as long as a few hours. The results are saved to the disk as .DAM files.

tables. Also, enter the total oil onboard, or press [F3] to have the total oil computed from the
default compartment data. This is required information for the “survivability” analysis, as this is
the assumed outflow if the vessel should fail to survive.

: This screen displays the criteria which is applied when
assessing survivability. The screen defaults to the IMO regulation 25(3) of Annex I of MARPOL
73/78 values.
page 17-31

descriptor and path for the .DAM files. Once these are correct specified, press [F3] to proceed.
A screen will appear allowing you to select the condition to be evaluated. The program defaults to
the “SIDE DAMAGE - A” condition which is the first option available. Press [F3] to proceed.

: The

probabilities for all damage cases, together with their associated oil outflow volumes. Note that
for damage cases which fail to survive, the governing survival criterion is indicated and the total
oil onboard is listed as the oil outflow for that particular damage case.
Bottom Damage
Listed below is a step-by-step procedure for the bottom damage oil outflow evaluation.

: Enter the DRAFT at A.P., DRAFT at F.P., VCG and
TCG for the intact ship. For evaluations in accordance with the IMO Guidelines, the vessel is
assumed to be at its loadline draft with zero trim and zero heel. Therefore, the DRAFT at A.P. and
the DRAFT at F.P. are set equal to the loadline draft, and the TCG is typically set equal to zero.
The heel angles listed on this screen are applied for the heeling moment calculations if
survivability calculations are carried out. The default values are appropriate for the IMO
Guideline calculations.

: Enter the tidal changes to be evaluated. The program defaults
to 0.0 m, 2.0 m and 6.0 m tides, which are the values given in the IMO Guidelines.

: Cursor through the list of compartments. If the
high-lighted compartment is a cargo oil tank, press the [F7] function key. The designation
“OIL” should appear under the “COMP. TYPE” column opposite each cargo oil tank.
The IMO Guidelines assume that double bottom tanks located immediately below damaged cargo
oil tanks will “capture” part of the oil outflow. Press the [F8] key to designate double bottom
tanks as capture tanks. The designation “CAPTURE” should appear under the “COMP. TYPE”
column.
Enter the % Full and density (or specific volume) for each tank that is fully or partially full in the
intact condition. For each cargo tank, specify the internal (inert gas) pressure. The IMO
Guidelines call for an internal pressure of 0.05 Bar Gauge (0.73 PsiG). This can be specified for
all cargo oil tanks simultaneously by pressing the [F4] key and entering the desired values.
Note: If a side damage evaluation was previously carried out, you should first load the side
damage .DCA file. This contains the drafts, cargo oil % full and density data. If this is
done, you must still designate the double bottom capture tanks and specify the inert gas
pressure, as these are not required entry data for the side damage evaluation.

: A list of all cargo oil tanks will appear. Switch the
method for oil outflow calculation from “ALL” to “CALC.” (based on pressure-balance) by
page 17-32
pressing the [F4] key and then the letter [C]. Toggle the “DYNAMIC OIL OUTFLOW” by
typing “Y” and [Enter] for any cargo oil tanks which are bounded by the bottom shell. Press
[F6] and then [F3] to compute the location of damage for each tank, which is the point around
which the pressure balance calculations will be taken.

: A list of all capture tanks will appear. Press
[F6] and then [F3] to compute the location of damage for each tank, which is the point around
which the pressure balance calculations will be taken.

: Specify the associated oil tank(s) which are located
immediately above each of the capture tanks.
The “MAX % OIL” is the percentage of the flooded volume of the capture tank which will contain
oil. The IMO Guidelines assume 50% of the flooded volume is oil, and 50% is sea water.

: Select
this option to develop the damage cases and associated probabilities for the bottom damage
condition.
The subdivision draft defaults to the specified intact draft. Length, beam and depth default to the
values read from the hull offset (.HUL) file.
The option to specify the “Probability Density Functions” is included as we anticipate additional
functions will be added in the future. However, only the probability distribution functions
contained in the IMO Guidelines are currently available.
Default factors are provided for the increments to be applied when evaluating the location and
extent probability density functions. The influence of these factors on the outflow calculations
are explained in Section 17-3 and Section 17-4. In general, the default factors are suitable.
However, this evaluation involves a large number of computations, and you may wish to increase
the factors (and thereby reduce computation time) if you are using a slower computer.
Once you are satisfied with the data, press [F3] to begin calculations.

: Select this option for a list of the damage cases which have
been developed for the bottom damage scenario. Cursor to any one of the damage cases and press
[Enter]. For the selected damage case, the list of damaged compartments with their respective
properties is displayed. The probability of occurrence for this particular damage case is shown in
the upper-right corner of the screen.
Note: The permeability, % full, density (or specific gravity) and compartment type are displayed
for each damaged compartment. These correspond to the values entered in

. If you need to globally change any of these values, return
to

and revise the values. Upon exiting the
screen, you will be asked if you want all damage cases to be revised with the new values.
: Save the bottom damage case descriptions as a

.DCA file now. Development of the damage cases is a calculation intensive and therefore time
consuming process. By saving the .DCA file, you can retrieve and analyze this data in the future
page 17-33
without having to redevelop the damage cases descriptions. Note: Be sure to use a different name
than the side damage .DCA file name.

: This screen allows you to enter the criteria which
will be applied to tanks subject to dynamic oil outflow analysis. The IMO Guidelines state that a
minimum 1% outflow must be assumed for all cargo tanks bounding the shell. This is the default
setting used in this program.
Conceptual Analysis for Bottom Damage

: A screen will appear allowing you to modify the file descriptor
for the .CPT file name. Press [F3] to proceed.
A screen will appear allowing you to select the tides to be evaluated. The default setting calls for
calculations to be carried out for all three tides. Press [F3] to begin calculations.
Conceptual calculations for bottom damage will require a few minutes, since hydrostatic pressure
balance calculations must be carried out The results are saved to the disk as .CPT files.

tables. The total oil onboard need not be specified, as it is not required input for the “conceptual”
analysis.
descriptor and path for the .CPT file. Once these are correct, press [F3] to proceed. A screen
will appear allowing you to select the condition to be evaluated. You must independently evaluate
the three tidal conditions: “BOTTOM DAMAGE - A”, “BOTTOM DAMAGE - B” and
“BOTTOM DAMAGE - C”.

: The

probabilities for all damage cases, together with their associated oil outflow volumes.
Survivability Analysis for Side Damage

: This screen allows you to specify the file descriptor, path
and first and last damage cases to be computed. Press [F3] to proceed.
A screen will appear allowing you to select the tides to be evaluated. The default setting calls for
calculations to be carried out for all three tides. Press [F3] to begin calculations. Complete
damage stability calculations are carried out for the damage cases, so the calculation time may be
as long as a few hours. The results are saved to the disk as .DAM files.

tables. Also, enter the total oil onboard, or press [F3] to have the total oil computed from the
default compartment data. This is required information for the “survivability” analysis, as this is
the assumed outflow if the vessel should fail to survive.
page 17-34

: This screen displays the criteria which is applied when
assessing survivability. The screen defaults to the IMO regulation 25(3) of Annex I of MARPOL
73/78 values.

descriptor and path for the .DAM files. Once these are correct, press [F3] to proceed. A screen
will appear allowing you to select the condition to be evaluated. You must independently evaluate
the three tidal conditions: “BOTTOM DAMAGE - A”, “BOTTOM DAMAGE - B” and
“BOTTOM DAMAGE - C”.

: The

probabilities for all damage cases, together with their associated oil outflow volumes. Note that
for damage cases which fail to survive, the governing survival criterion is indicated and the total
oil onboard is listed as the oil outflow for that particular damage case.
page 17-35
17.6 PROGRAM USAGE AND DATA ENTRY

Data Entry
Drafts and Heel Angles
Selecting the

option causes the screen in Figure 17-27 to
appear. You may enter or modify the information as needed.
The intact condition of the vessel is defined by specifying the drafts, VCG or GMt, and the TCG
of the loaded vessel.
The angles of heel are required when “survivability” analysis is carried out. The default angles
are consistent with the IMO Guidelines, and no changes to these angles are normally required.
Figure 17-27
Note: When a draft is initially specified both drafts are assigned. Subsequent changes to either
draft will only change that specific draft entry.
Tidal Change Data

Selecting the
option causes the “TIDE ENTRY” screen to
appear. In accordance with the IMO Guidelines, the program defaults to tidal changes of 0.0 m,
2.0 m, and 6.0 m. These are the tidal conditions at which bottom damage analyses will be carried
out. Normally, changes to this data are not required.
page 17-36
Default Compartment Status

Selecting the

option causes the screen in Figure 17-
28 to appear.
Figure 17-28
Cargo oil tanks are selected with the [F7] key. For bottom damage analysis, double bottom
tanks can be designated as “capture” tanks with the [F8] key.
The default permeabilities are the permeabilities as entered in the Compartment Entry Program for
each compartment. These can be revised as required.
The “% FULL (INTACT)” and “DENSITY” (or “SPECIFIC VOLUME”) are entered for tanks
which are full or partially full in the intact conditions. Data entered in this default status screen
are applied to all damage cases which are developed from the probability distribution functions.
The “% FULL (DAMAGED)” column allows the user to fix the percent flooding for a given tank.
This is normally left at the default “FREE” setting, indicating that the tank is in free-
communication with the sea.
The “PRESSURE” column allows specification of a pressure head on the tank. A positive
pressure will tend to reduce the level in the tank, whereas a negative pressure will increase the
level. The IMO Guidelines call for a positive inert gas pressure of 0.05 Bar Gauge when
evaluating bottom damage conditions.
page 17-37
Selecting the

option causes the screen in Figure 17-29
to appear.
Figure 17-29
The “OIL OUTFLOW” column indicates the type of calculation to be performed when evaluating
oil outflow. It defaults to “ALL” indicating all of the oil will outflow from the tank. This is the
required designation if side damage is being evaluated. When evaluating side damage, the
location of damage is not of significance, and data entry in this screen is not required.
For bottom damage evaluation, the “OIL OUTFLOW” column is set to “CALC.”, indicating that
outflow will be computed by pressure balance. This can be done on a tank-by-tank basis by
pressing the letter [C] for each tank, or for all tanks at once by using the [F4] key.
The IMO Guidelines call for a minimum oil outflow of 1% of the volume of the tank for all cargo
tanks bounding the bottom shell. For instance, in the case of the hydrostatically balanced lower
tanks of a mid-deck tanker, pressure balance calculations will yield little or no outflow. In such
cases, the 1% of tank volume outflow value is assumed. Press the letter [Y] in the “DYNAMIC
OIL OUTFLOW” column for those tanks subject to minimum dynamic outflow.
The location of damage can be entered or computed from compartment offsets. Pressing the [F6]
key provides for computation of the damage location for all cargo tanks at one time. A screen
appears allowing you to establish guidelines for how the damage locations are computed. If the
default parameters are retained, the damage locations will be at the lowest point in the tank. The
location will be on the port side of the tank, at the forward end for tanks located forward of
amidships and at the aft end for tanks located aft of amidships.
Capture Tank Damage Locations

Selecting the

option produces a screen allowing
entry or computation of capture tank damage locations. This menu item is active only if capture
tanks have been specified on the “DEFAULT COMPARTMENT STATUS” screen.
page 17-38
Capture Tank Data

Selecting the

appear.
Figure 17-30
The “MAX. % OIL” column indicates the portion of the flooded volume of each capture tank
which is occupied by cargo oil. This default value is 50%, indicating at 50:50 oil:sea water
combination. This value is consistent with the IMO Guidelines.
For each capture tank, enter the No. for each cargo tank associated with a given capture tank. For
instance, if a capture tank is an “L” tank with one cargo tank above, there will be one associated
cargo oil tank. However, if the capture tank is “U” tank with port and starboard cargo oil tanks
above, there will be two associated cargo oil tanks.
Note: The list of all compartments with the No. assigned to each compartment can be printed from
the

menu option. This list serves as a helpful
reference when entering tank nos. on this screen.
Revising Damage Cases

Selecting the

option produces a screen which lists all damage
cases. Pressing [Enter] will provide a more detailed description of the damage case, as well as
the probability of occurrence for that particular damage case. This menu item is active only after
damage cases have been developed from the

menu
option.
page 17-39
Damage Cases from Probability Functions

Selecting the

option produces a sub-
menu, allowing you to choose between side damage and bottom damage evaluations. Exercising
these options produces a set of damage case descriptions and associated probabilities based on the
probability density functions contained in the IMO Guidelines.
The “SUBDIVISION PARAMETERS for SIDE DAMAGE” screen is shown as Figure 17-31. The
subdivision draft, length, beam, and depth should be updated as appropriate. As explained in
Section 17-3 of this manual, these values are applied against the probability distribution functions
when developing the damage cases.
Figure 17-31
The option to specify the “Probability Density Functions” is included, since we anticipate that
additional functions will be added in the future. Currently, only the IMO probability distribution
functions are available.
Default factors are provided for the increments to be applied when evaluating the probability
density functions. In general, the default factors are suitable, although increasing the factors will
reduce computation time and may be appropriate for certain analyses.
If the subject vessel does not have any horizontal sub-division or if the only horizontal sub-
division is the double bottom, the vertical damage extent and location can be ignored without
significantly impacting the results. These functions can be deactivated by pressing the [F4] key.
This will result in a considerable reduction in computation time.
Once you intiate calculations by pressing the [F3] key, the time until completion will appear on
the screen. If you wish to abort the calculations and return to the main menu, you can do so by
pressing the [Esc] key.
Once the calculations are completed, the screen shown in Figure 17-32 appears. The cumulative
probability should equal 1.0000. If it is less than 1.0, the usual cause is that no compartments
have been defined for a portion of the hull within the sub-division length. If the probability is
close to 1.0 (say greater than 0.995), the influence on results will generally be small. When
page 17-40
evaluating the results, the program rationalizes the outflow data to 1.0000 by multiplying the oil
outflow for each damage case by the factor 1/.995.
Figure 17-32
Note: Once the side damage cases are developed, save this data as a .DCA file. Likewise, bottom
damage case descriptions must be independently developed, and saved as a separate .DCA
file.
Survivability Calculations
Selecting the
option produces a screen allowing you to
specify the file descriptor and damage cases to be computed. All damage cases must be run before
the oil outflow parameters can be developed. It is recommended that the full range of damage
cases be run at one time. However, if time constraints or other considerations prevent you from
running all damage cases at once, you can resume calculations at a later time by entering the
desired range of damage cases.
Note: A .DAM file is produced for each damage case. This file can be loaded and reviewed in
detail in the Damage Stability Program.
Conceptual Calculations
Selecting the option produces a screen allowing you to specify the
file descriptor for the conceptual analysis (.CPT) file. One .CPT file is produced for side damage,
and for bottom damage evaluation one .CPT file is produced for each of the tidal conditions.
Specify the Total Oil Onboard and the Units for Oil Outflow Results
Selecting the
option produces a screen allowing you to

specify the desired units for oil outflow, and the total oil onboard the vessel.
The total oil onboard is computed from the previously specified default compartment data if the
[F3] key is pressed. Not only is this a quick way to enter this value, but also comparison of this
page 17-41
total to the known quantity of oil serves as a check to insure that you have properly designated oil
tanks and % full values in the “DEFAULT COMPARTMENT STATUS” screen.
Note: The “Total Oil Onboard” is required only for the “survivability” analysis, in which the
total oil onboard is assumed to outflow to the sea whenever the ship fails to survive a
damage case.
Full Survivability Analysis - Computation of Oil Outflow Parameters

Selecting the
option allows you to specify the .DAM
file descriptor and associated path. Calculations must first be performed via the

menu option before the results can be evaluated. Also, before proceeding
with the evaluation, be sure to specify the total oil onboard from the

screen.
Note: Before proceeding with the survivability evaluation, you should verify that the data
accessed through the

option is correct, as this
information is utilized for the evaluation.
Conceptual Analysis - Computation of Oil Outflow Parameters

Selecting the option allows you to specify the .CPT file
descriptor and associated path. Calculations must first be performed via the
menu option before the results can be evaluated.
Display Features
From the menu, you can review the oil outflow parameters and oil outflow table. You
can also review the damage case descriptions from the

option,
and the detailed damage stability results contained in the .DAM files can be accessed through the
Damage Stability Program.
Print Features
From the

option, you can print the oil outflow parameters and oil
outflow table for the condition you have just evaluated.
Also available are prints of the input information, including default compartment data, damage
case listings, and the locations of damage for the cargo oil tanks.
Calc. Precision
The
allows you to revise convergence criteria used when iterating for
solutions in the survivability analysis. The default values provide a reasonable level of accuracy,
and revision of this data is normally not necessary.
page 17-42
Damage Stability Criteria

Selecting the

appear.
Figure 17-33
The IMO regulation 25(3) of Annex I of MARPOL 73/78 criteria is applied as the defaults.
If a margin line is provided in the .HUL file, setting the “Minimum Freeboard to MARGIN LINE”
to 0.0 m will limit heel to the specified margin line. Likewise, if downflooding points are
specified in the compartment files, setting the “Minimum Freeboard to DOWNFLOODING” to 0.0
m will limit heel to the downflooding points of any undamaged compartments.
Dynamic Oil Outflow

Selecting the

option causes the screen in Figure 17-
34 to appear.
Figure 17-34
page 17-43
The default setting establishes 1% of the tank volume as the initial oil loss. In accordance with
the IMO Guidelines, this should be applied for all cargo oil tanks which bound the bottom shell.
Alternatively, a water layer thickness at the bottom of the tank can be specified.
Note: The initial oil loss is assessed during the evaluation phase, and therefore can be modified
after calculations are run but before results are evaluated. The water layer influence is
assessed during the calculation phase. If this data is modified, the calculations must be re-
run.
page 17-44

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Back to Main Table of Contents

PROBABILISTIC OIL OUTFLOW PROGRAM MENU

File Load Damage Case Description File (.DCA)

Gen.Info Name, Date, etc.

DataEntry Drafts and Heel Angles

Calcs Full Survivability Analysis

Evaluation Specify Total Oil Carried

Display Oil Outflow Parameters

Print Pollution Prevention Index Summary

Option Calc. Precision

Input File Descriptions

Extension Description Created by Required for

.CML Compartment Access Data Compartment Entry Program Yes

.CMA Appended Compartment Descriptions Compartment Entry Program No

.DCA Damage Case Description Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program No

.CPT Conceptual Analysis Descriptor Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program No

.DAM Damage Results Description Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program No

Output File Descriptions

Extension Description Used by Required by

.CPT Conceptual Analysis Descriptor Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program No

.DAM Damage Results Description Probabilistic Oil Outflow Program No

File Name = Root Name + ID Number + Draft Letter + .DAM

17.2 CALCULATION METHODOLOGY

1) Evaluation of the intact (pre-damage) condition.

1) Evaluation of Intact Condition

2) Development of the Damage Cases

Probability Distribution for Side Damage Location

Side Damage Density Distribution - Longitudinal Location

Probability Distribution for Side Damage Length

Side Damage Density Distribution - Length

fs 3 Probability Distribution for Side Penetration

Side Damage Density Distribution - Transverse Penetration

Probability Distribution for Side Damage Vertical Extent

Side Damage Density Distribution - Vertical Extent

Probability Distribution for Side Damage Vertical Location

1.0 Vertical Location

Side Damage Density Distribution - Vertical Location

Probability Distribution for Grounding Damage Location

Bottom Damage Density Distribution - Longitudinal Location

Probability Distribution for Grounding Damage Length

Prob. Density 4.0

1.0 0.5 0.5

Bottom Damage Density Distribution - Length

fb3 Probability Distribution for Grounding Damage Vertical Penetration

Bottom Damage Density Distribution - Vertical Penetration

fb4 Probability Distribution for Grounding Damage Transverse Extent

Bottom Damage Density Distribution - Transverse Extent

Bottom Damage Density Distribution - Transverse Location

3) Calculation of Oil Outflow

Equilibrium Heel Angle Maximum 25 degrees.

Righting Arm Maximum residual righting lever of at least 0.1 meters.

4) Calculation of Oil Outflow Parameters

CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF OIL OUTFLOW

5) Calculation of Pollution Prevention Index “E”

E = (0.5)(PO)/(POR) + (0.4)(0.01 + OMR)/(0.01 + OM) + (0.1)(0.025 + OER)/(0.025 + OE) >= 1.0

17.3 PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS

Development of Damage Cases for Side Damage

These are the maximum extents of the probability functions:

Therefore, use of the default factors will result in (100)(30)(300)(100)(100) = 9 x 10 9, or 9 billion

Application of Damage Extents:

Note: If the compartmentation is asymmetrical about the ship’s centerline, it is necessary to

Development of Damage Cases for Bottom Damage

Selecting the

option produces a screen allowing you to