v o L 8 1 .N o . 4 6 J O U R N A L O F G E O P H Y S I C A LR E S E A R C H JUNE I.

I978

CollisionFrequency
of ArtificialSatellites:
The Creationof a DebrisBelt
D o \ ^ L D J . K E s s t . E RA N D B L R T o NC . C o u R - P A L A r s

NASA Johneh S?o.e C.ntet, Hodd,Ient 77A58

As rh. .udbcr ot anificial satellitesin errrh orbir in$cas6_ lhe orobabi|nv ot coltnion\ berle€n
. , r ( . ' c \ d l s i n c r e J \ a S a ' r l l ( c c o l l i . i o r . t r , r l d p r o d u R o r b i r ' n pi i , p n s r . . d . n o t r 1 , c h { u L t d
'ncreaserhe p.obabilir! of furrhercollhio.s, leadincro rhe sro*rh ora b.h ofdebris .round the u(h.
Thn trocessparall€hcetuin lheoriesconcerningrhe groflh oarfie,sr.roid b.tt The dcbrisnu\ in such
dn eanh-orbninSbeh could €xced the narurll hetcoroid Rur. rll.ctine lurure spacecr.ftdesign\ A
nathematrc.l nod€l *as uscd to tredid lhe rate ar \hich such a b.tr njshr form Under ccrlain
condnion\th€ beh could b.Ei. ro lorn wirhin thh..nluD and coutdb€. siSniticantprobtemdurins rh.
next century The Dossibililyrhat numerousunobserredlrasmenGatr€adyexisr ftom srdccd.fi er,
p r o , i u . , s n u l d d ( r c r s e r h A ' r ( n r e \ " l l o { e \ e ' . ( r r t ) r m p t e m e n r J r .ol t . t ( c . r / . o . , . r r t .on.
$rarntsrnd operationalproedures could lignihcrnrl) d.l,' lh€ tornarion oi the beh.

INrRoDUcrro\ reachedbl lhis slud) thal ovef the next fes decadesa sig.i6,
SinceIhe beginningof th6 spa@age.rhousandsofsareuites cant amounl oldebris could be Senerar.dby ollisions. affecr-
hav€ ben placed in ea h orbir by various nalions. These in8 forure spac@raftdesigns.
satellitesmay be group€d iDro rhrec careSorios:palloads,
rockel motors, and debris asocialed sirh lhe launch or S^rErr rrE ErvrRoNNrrNrMoDEL
b.eakupof a pa icular payloador .ocker mosl satellil€slall
A modelde$ribine lbe environmentr€suhingfrom o.biling
into rhe lasl calegory.Bsause man' ol rhesesareltires are in satellirs wasconsrrucredby fiNr calculatingrhesparialdensiry
orbits which crosson€ anolher,the.eis a finireprobabiliryof (avercg€number
of salellitesper unit volum.) asa luncrionof
collisions betweenthem. Sarellilecollisions will produce a
dislan@from th€ earth and geocentriclatitude.Flux (rumber
numberof ftagments.som€ofwhich may b€ capableoi frag- ol 'mpacts pe.
unit area per unir !ime) was th.n relaredlo
menting anolher salellitelpon collision,c.eatingevenmore
spalial density through lhe r€lative impact velociri6. This
liagmenls.Tbe resultwoDldb€ an e,(ponentialincrease in the technique*'asalso used1omodelthecollisionhequencyin the
numberof obj€clswith rime.crearinga beti ofdebrjs a.ound
asteroidbelt l(e$/er, l97ll
Orbilal perturbationscan be expectedto caus the orbilal
This proce$ of mutual collisions's thou8hr io have beet
argumentol perihelionand righr ascension ofascendingnode
responsiblefor croating mosr of rhe asreroidsfiom larg€r
lo changelairly rapidly. causingthesotwo disr.ibulionsro be
planedikebodies.The timescalein which rhisproces h rakinS
n€ady random.This randomnesswasobservedltrcotr er 4/.,
placein the asleroidbeh is of rhe order ot billionsofyears.A
19751and led to a uniform dislributionin the sparialdensilt as
muchshorlertime scalein eanh orbir is suSgcsted by the much a funclion of
smallerlolum€ of spaceoccupiedby eanh-orbitinSsatellires eeocentricloneilud€.The modcl was thus re-
duced to determiningthe spalial density,Sas a tuncrion of
comparedto th€ volumeot spaceo@upiedby lbe asleroids. distancetrom
the surlaceoflhe ea.th R and geocenrriclatitude
Conceivably,a significanlnumbq of srnall salellitefrag-
B. To conslrucl the rnodel.volum€ elemenlsse.e definedas
mentsalread) exisl in eartho.bil. Fragmeniswhich are und€- lR = 50 km
and lp = l'. The spalialdensly in eachof these
leled by rada. are likely ro haveb@n p.oducedfrom .killer volume
el€m€nlsqas found by calculatingth€ p.obabilily ol
satellile testsand the accidenralerplosionsof rockermo1o6. frrdin8
eachsatelliteir a panicula. votumeelemertand then
Akhoueh somework hasalr€adybeenompleled to estimare
summinglheseprobabiliries.Spatialdensily is lhen ftis sum
the nu.nb€rof th€sef.a8menls,further investigationsin this
divid€dby the volumeof the volumeelement.
areaare srill reqLrired.
The April30. 1976.SalelliteSiluationR6po.t l,V,r.S,{.19761
This paperwill determin.possiblerimescalesfo.lhegrowth
'debris conminsa total of 3E66sareuites, indicaringthar asofrhis date
ol a belt' ftom collision Lagm€ntsand will prodict a lotalofl866 rere bein8
lfacked.most by radar in lo* €nb
som€of the posibl€ consequen@s ofconlinued unresrrarneo orbil. The SatelliteSituation Repo.r is
compiled trom dala
l.unch aclivilies.This will b€ accomplished by applyin! tech- providedby th€ SpaceDefenseCent€r(SDC) ard r€pr€senls
niquesforrnerly developedtor srudling rhe elolution ol the
the mosrcompletedala available.Evenso, it *as tound to be
lsteroid bell. A model d€scribingthe nux from rne Kno*n
significantlyincompleteby a lest p.rform€d in 1976lHendrcn
eanh-orbitinSsatelliressill firsr b€ devclop€d_The fesutls
and Attde.son,19761.especiallya1ahitudesbelow 5m km. In
f.om rhis modelwiUrhenbecxrrapotared in rimero predicrlhe addilion, the drop in .adar sensitivityfor
objecrssnallcr ihan
collision hequencybel{een salellires.The hype.velociryim,
to cn l8rcoks et al.. 19751and for obj€ctsal higherahirudes
plct phenomena*ill then be eraminedro predict the debris
produca anotherbias in thesedata. Suchdeficiencic@used
flux.esulling from collisions.Orher sourc€sand sinks for
th€ calcolatedspatialdensilies1o be 1oo lo*; lh€ implications
deb.is will be discussed. and the efecrs ol atmosphericdfag of this 6u1t will
be discussedin later secrions-Sinceonly a
sill be p.edict€d.Theseresuhs*.ill b€ applied to designre,
s l a r i s l i c as lo l u l i o n$ ! . r e q u r r e d\ u. r f i c i e nat c c u r a cwy a sm a i n -
quirementsfor threetyp.s of spacemissionsin the future.The
lained by p.rfo.ming all calculationswith a random sample
porential,or upper limit. debris fux will then be discussed.
consistingof 125of the 1866salellites.
Although funhef studiesare recommended, the conclusionis The rdultinS spaiial donsidesare Sivenin FigurcsI and 2.
This pap€risnor subjecl pubtished
lo U.S coptriChl. in 1978b] the Figure I showsthe spalial density as a funcrion ot disrance
AmericanCeophysical Union. from fie €arth(ave.agedover lalilude),while FiSure2 shows
2631
2olli KEssLEr^ND Cou.-P^r^rs; ARrFrhr S^rErLrrEDEBI6 BELr

€ncebetweenlhes avorages.asslme that therea.. th.e ob-

jects in a unit volurnehaving velocitiB ol l. 2. and I km/s
relativ€to onc anothor.The avemgerelalivevclocitysould be
2 l m . i H o w e v e rr.n c e l h e p r o b a b i l i ro) f c o l l ' s ' o ni s p r o p o .
donal to lh. relativevelocity, for every collision at I km/s
there *ill be two mllhions at 2 km/s and thre. @llisionsat l
km/s. Th. av.rage collision velocity is rhus 2.ll km/s. The
ay.ragerelativevelocitycan be shovn to be lhe p.op€r average
to translorm spatial d€nsily to flux and collision frequency.
whilethe ave.agccollision!elocity desc.ibqthe averageveloc-
ily at which objecb sould be observedto collide
The resultsot th6e calculalionsfor allitudsl6s than 2000
km wer. rhat 7" ' 7 km/s and % = l0 km/s: rheseaveraces
w€refound ro be nearly independenlof fte volum€ el€m€nt.
Al latilud€swh€rethe spalialdensity'as largethescrveraEe
v€locirieswere sometimesslishdy smaller (by I or 2 km/s)i
Fis. L Cudentdisrribution ofelcln6 in.arlh orbi asobserved qas small. so that Z, and /. could be
b! .!dar. A lotal of 1866sar€llir6arein lhc April 1976cauloEand ho*ever. rhis eflect
considercdconstantover all spacebclo* 20m kn.
SIzEDlsrRlBurlo\
The si2e disrributiofl of satellileswas obtained trom the
the sparialdensityas a furclior of latitudefor a few selecled radar crosssectionmeasurements. Th. data in FigureI qere
distances.Of panicular nore is rhar mosl olthe saleluresw€r€ o b r d i n e dd u r i n ga l 2 . h o u r L e s u r i l h e p e r i m e r ear c q u i s i r i o n
found wilhin aboul 20OOkm of th€ €arth, the peak densily r a d a r( P A R ) o n J u l y l ! , 1 9 7 6 l H e n l r c o n n dA d e . s o , . 1 9 7 6 ) .
b.ing found al aboul9m km. Significanlp€akswerefound at The purpo$ ofthis test wasto determinePAR\ €pability 1o
1500and 1700km. ln lalitudc. significantp.aks wer€ loLind dercd and track objecls that *ere .ol in th€ SpaceD€fense
bete€en l0' and l5' and at >60'. For mosl ladtudeslhe Cenlersatalog.The rcsullsof the testconcludedthal lhe SDC
spatialdensitywas iound lo be well *ilhin a factor of2 ol the catalogwas l8% dencienr,and lhe irnplicalionsof theseresuhs
averageforlhat distance.allhoughspeific pcakswerea lirclor will bc discus*d later. Hosever. rhe PAR data havc other
of I or 4 from the average. applic:|tions,sincelheyrepresenla'poinl-in-timCsampling
As a note of interesl at $is poirt, th€ impacr rare on a r h e s a r e l l r ed a r aa n d " e r e e a r h e r e b
d ) . s i n p l ei n s l r u m e n t .
pardcularspacecraft. dlldt, can bequicklyapp.oximatedfrom Thus th* datawereusedlo analyzethe satellitesizedislribu'
Figur€ I bt usingthe equation
dt/tu = Sr.A. (l) In an individual case the Dhysicalcross section,,1.of an
obj€cl lnay bc o.d.rs of magnitudodiferenl lron ns radar
*her€ Z is an averaserelarivev.lociry,,{" is lhe cross-sec- cros scrio. d [R(k et aa, 1970].Ho*€v€., lhc difcrenccmay
doned area oi the spacecraft.and / is rhe tolal number of b€ small (l6s than a tuclor of 2) rh€n an av€raeephysical
r m p a c rqs i r h r h es p a c e c r a l LI.' rm er . A s s ' l l b er h o qn l d r r r .4 floss seclion is compar€dto an averaSemdar crossstion
= 7 km/s. Th€.eforefor a spae stationol50-m fadius,at 50G
l m a l t i l u d e ( S : 2 . 8 x l 0 ' / k m ' a n d , { " : 7 - 9X l 0 i k m r )l h o
i m p a crt d r er s I 5 10'"'r.or4.9^l0'/)r.Thi\lompare.
1 0a b o u l 3 x l 0 ' / y . t o m d b y M c C a e r l l 9 7 2 l u s i n ga l 9 7 l
SatelliteSituationReportcontainingl805objects.This impact
rale is only slightlr dependenton the spacestalion orbital
inclination:lor inclinalionslesslhan90'th€ rat€ vari€sby les
'0.:

The collisionrate betweenall satellites,dcldr. is givenby

I t - _
d( dt ^l S'v"A."du t2l

$ h e r eC , ( r h e n u m b e o
r f c o l l i s i o nbs€ l v e e ns a l e l l i r e s , , {i r. a n
ave.agecollisioncross-setionalars ol th€ satellitos,and dU
is :|n elemenlof volume.Thus both an averagevelocityand a ' 'oj
collisioncross-seclional a.ea are requned.Thesedislribulions
and thei. resullingaveragd sill bc di$usscd nov.
VELoc|TYDrsrRruurroN
The velocitydistriburionin Eachvolumeel€mentsas calcu-
lated by computin8the rclativ. v.locity betwe.n eachol the
satellitesin rhe randon sampleandthenseightingthe number
havinS this velocity by the probability of findin8 lhe two
salellit€sin the volume element.Two averagcvelocitieswere Fig. 2. Lcrnude lariation in spatialdcnsnt ar slarcd altiluds.
f o u n df r o m t h e r d i \ l r i b u l i o n sr:h cr y e r a g er c l a r i ' er e l o c i r J4 Ar dosl ladrudG fic spatiul densityis eilhi. a fador ot 2 ot rhc
and rhe ave.aSecollisionveloctt) %. To illusl.ale the difets areraS.ar thal distance.
 XFssLER
^ND Co!i-P^LArs:AirrFrcr^L S^rrLUrE DEBhs BFr.r
resullingfrom the observalionof many objecls.Bul wher the
linea. dimonsionsolan objed b€comesmall @mpa.ed10 rhe
wavelenCth, Rayleighscaxeringcaus6 the rrda. crosssecrion
to bc much small€rthan lbe physic{looss s(rion. Thk d.op
an radar sensitivityras ar leasrpanially rBponsible for the
d.op in.umbef ior sizessmallerlhan 0.03m'shown in Figure
l. Hencethe asumption was maderhar lor r > 0.02m:,,.1.=
r. For r < 0.02 m". A" = ko, wherek approaches6 al lbe
snalle. lalues of d in Figure L This correcrionfor RayleiSh
scatte.ingproducedorly minorchangdin the overallcoll;ion
Also plotred in Figure I is rhe distriburionof roral areaol
sat.lliles.Tbis distribulionis ofinlerest sinc€collisionproba-
bilitiesare relatedto area.The disrriburionsuggests rhat nosr
collisionswillinvolve objcts bel*een thesizcsol l- to lo0,m:
c.osssection.The averagecross serion,4-.: 1.5m, wasfound
by dividing the integraloflh€ areacurveby the integralofthe
Houerrr. rhe aleragecollision cros serion ,t, mulr in-
cludc the fini!e sizeofborh objecrs.Collision c.osssecrionis
r€laledto the physicalqos sedion of two objecrsby
A," = 1A.,"'+ ,l,t""r (3)
where,{", and ,4"/ arc rhe physicalc.osssectionsof objecrs,
andl respectively. The cotlisioncrosssectionwas calculaled
t'€tseen each of lhe sizesin Figure l, weighredaccordingro
(he probabililyofihose sizescollidinS,a.d rhenaveragod. The
rcsulls were tha! .,r- = 4 m, and will be assumedro b€
independenrof the lolumc elcmenr.
When rhe data in Figu.e I were @mpa.ed with the SDC
caulog dala, the PAR radar qos secrionswerefound to be
about 50% less.on the averaSe,rhan thoseof the SDC. This
indicatesan addilional calibration unc€.ldnly betwoen!h€
two radar syslems.when combinedwith rh. uncenainll b€-
r s e n r a d a rs n d p h ) s i c acl r o $ k c r i o n \ . r h ev a l u eo r , t - . .m a )
.angefrom about 2 m' to 12 tn1.
Thus (2) was integrat.dover the spa@b€rsecnlsGkm and
4000-krnaltirudcby using 4 = ? km,/sand,4.. = 4 ml ro giv€
a collisionrale oi0.0ll collisions/y.,bu( rhis rar€couldranse
: , m 5 r @
* $rved satelliles*ould move thes€dat6 €v€n clos€r 1{) the
P"!
: l r f l -q
Ei 'm
= , 0 0
Fis. L Size disfibulion ol @nh,orbninSsalcllil.s observedby
rada.. Th. Iarseslnumber oasat.llir.s havc a radar crosss@rionof
abour 0.04 m', while the lare*l aH s.rriburion is arouno a raoar
2639
Fig. 4. Total collisionsby lhe gilen dat. !nd< variousgro*lh
assumprions Thc fi6l collisionh €xpecl€d
bcl*en 1989and 1997.
f t o m 0 m ? l o 0 . 0 J 9c o l l ' i o n \ y r . o w i n Bl o r h eu n c e r l a r n r )n
lhe relationshipbelqeen the real and radar cros s€ctions.
Th€s @llision ral€s could bo significantlyhi8he. it a large
numberol unobs.vcd salellitesexist.
Exrn^poLAfloNINTorHE FuruRE
Betwer I966 and 1974the .et numberoftrackablc objecls
in spaceincr.as.d at the rate orabour 320 objets/y. lrrootr
et al-, 1975).Frcm l9?5 1o rhe presenrrhar .at. inc.easedto
sl0/yr INASA, 1914.1975, I9761.The periodtrom l966ro rhe
pre$nl @uld b€ summarizedby an incr@scof l3%/y..
It ir is assumedtha! rhe same pattern of debr; buildup
conrinues,then the nudber of collisiors C by lime r is fou.d
b) integ.ating(2) overrine. wh€rc1bespariald€nsiryis rhenu
funclion ol lime and proportionalb lhe numbe.ofobjecrsin
Fi8lrc 4 showsthe .esultsof suchan inrcSration,uring the
lhree dife.ent buildup rales. Note ftat under rhe more @n-
snarivc assumption(120objocts/yr)thefst ollision wo!ld
b€expect€daround 1997.Howev.., at agrowth rateof ll%/yr
this collisionwould occu. around I 989.I I lhe averag.collision
oos secrionis overeslinatedby a factorof2. the fi6t collision
could be $ lat. as th€ yeaf 2005.*hil€ an und.rcstinaion by
a factor ofl r6uhs in a 6rst collisionbetweenl98J and 1990
under any of rhe growth asumprions.The pr6Enceot unob-
presenl-Thus unless signincantchanS€sarc made in thc
m.lhod of placing objectsinro space,hagb€.ts trom inleF
collisionswill probably becomea sourc€ot addirionalspace
debrisby lh€ y€ar2000,perhapsmuchcarlier.ThesiSnifiance
of lhis ncw source is seen by takirg a closer look al rhe
hyp.rvelocityimpacl ph€nomenon.
HYPErvELocrrY
IttP^crs
Th€ avrage impacl velocilyoi I0 krnls ensurB that almon
allof lbe eanh-orbi(ingobjectswillexhibit hyp.rvclocityim-
pact charactcristicswhcn they collide. Borh objecr5will be
subjet.d to v€ry high inslanranoousprsu.6 (>lO'. dynl
cm:), thc strong shock wavescausinSmeltanSand possiblc
vaporiztion in th€ immedialereSionof$e inpact. A crater,
or hole, will be form€d, the mollen €jectedmasscoalescing
inlo more or lesssphericalpanicl6. ln addilion, the shock
wav6, panicle fmgm€nts hilling orh€r surfaes, and vapor
pressuremay aus.fraSmcntation outsidcthe cmtcr€dreSion.
26{[ KEssr.ER
^!o Co!R-PAr.^rs:ARnflcr^r S^rE' rrrF DFsRrsBlLr

posiblt resulringin the cataslrophicdisruprionof both ob, she.e /( and r are constants.From leslsp€rto.medon basall,
jers- This proce$ hasbeernudied lorsomerime,mostt) from ( : 04. and r = -.-0.8lcault et a1., 1963:Dohnuli. 19111.
the slandpoinl of protecdon ot spacecratlfiom ncrcoro,os, I.rom thesercsultsand a$ociatedmodelinSl(.$1?/, l9?ll il
crater formation on the moon,and traSmentationofrocks on sas concludedrhat the asreroidbelr musr includc parriclesas
lhe lunar surtuc€or in rhe aneroid bek. Beauseof t heplrallel smallasdust g.ains.Olcou6e, the objectsin the steroid bell
bet$een lhe polenlial tormation ot an earth-orbilinedebds are solid chunks of rnlte.ial. unlike the anlhropoSenicsatel-
b€Il and the hlporhelical formarionol rhe asreroidb€h, and
b . c a u \ co t r h e d \ d r l r b r h t ro l d a l a c o n c e r n r n,Bm p " c r . i n r o
solid.homoseneous o bjecrs.thesedarawillbe discusedlirsl. lvp^crs I\ro SpAcEcRArr
SrRUcrrREs
lMpacrsI\.'ro SoLrDSrrLcruREsA\..DBasALr The objects expected1o collide in eanh orbi( consis( of
pr6dominrnrlvscienlificand rnilitart satelliles.rocketmoto6.
Hypervelocitt impactsinlo solid srructurescan be divided
into lwo groups: calaslrophicand noncatastrophic.A non- and fragrnentsol the samecausedb) malfunclionsor delibe.
cataslrophiccollisionresullsf.om the collisionof two mases ate dgtruclion. The propoftion oi solid chunks of material
n/, xnd M,, whererlr is muchsmalle.rhan,V,by an amounl till be very small. and the majoril| of collisionswill be be-
l*en open and closedstruclures6ll€d wilh equipmenLThus
M,> f,Mt (1) t h eU p i c a l o b j e r{ i l l b e a n o . h o m o s e n e o m u sa s s $ i r hd i s c o n -
tiruitiesand manl voids.Theonlr reporl.d hypervelocity lesls
whereI' is a functionofrhe inpacl velociryand the struclure
*here traSmentdislribuliors *efsoblained tor 'rlpical' space
a n d m a t e . i a l so l M t a n d M , . I n n o n c a r a s f o p h icco l l i s i o n s ,
struclures. with inlernal compon€nls.re.e pe.tormed by
only,|. , is destroyed.and a crateris produ@dir M:. ejectinea
Langle) Resqrch Cenler IA?Jj, 19751. The lens sho*ed thal
total massof M€. *hich may b. exprdsedas
for theseparlicular configurationsthe sameSeneralejected
M,:tMt (5) nass and traSmenrsize disldburion laws establishedtor rhe
solid objectsako apply 10 spacecr|ftslrlctur€s.
where I is aho a funclion of the impacr velocity and rbe when rhese.esullsrere scal€dto l0 km/s, a valueol t =
structureand haleriah of /r, and ,ry:.
I l5 wasoblained for space$af1sl.uctures.Thar is. in a non-
IIM, h lafgerthan the amounlgivenin (4). rhennor onll is
calaslrophic collision betw€en a spaceffafr struclure and
r crakr pioducedin M?. bur the enti.esrruclureof M, begins
smallerobjectat l0 km/s th€ ejecledmasswould be l15 rimes
t o r r a g m e f r .T h b p r o c e s ^ r c t e r r c dl o . , a c a u , L r o p h r c the massof lhe smaller object. Nole from Table I rhat this
c o l l i s i o n l h e \ e a d d i t i o n ahl a g m e n l sd r e u s u . t t ) t a r S e r h d n v a l u €i s n o l l o o d i t r e . e nftr o m! h a t f o r s o l i dl l m - 0 a l u m i n u m .
the fragmenlsfrom thec.ater and areej€credal a muchsloler No res$ have ben performed1o r) 10 duplicale a cala-
velocily.The massejectedfrom a carasr.ophiccollhion is
strophiccollisioninvolvin! a lpac€craft(ructur.. Obviousll.
M.= M,+ M, (6) ifthe crater producedin a 'noncalasrophid collisaonis larger
lhan rhe etellile, then the collision is carasrrophicithus t'
The ejectednrasshasalso beensho*.r to be proportionallo must be grcarer than ll5 and by a.aloey to solid objectsis
the impacl kinelicenergyIMoo.e etal.,1965.Doklanli, t91tl. l i k e l y1 ob e m u c hl a r g e rt h a n l l 5 .
Thus the valuesior I and I'will vary as 14.At l0 km/s the when no.malizedby the lotal ejectedmass,as in (7). the
valuesof I and t' fo. basaltare 500 and 25.000..espectively dislribulionoffragmenlsfiom spaceraftslruclureslooks!ery
IDohnanri, t9111.Thar is, for basah. if i4 is Brcaterthan sinilar to that ol basalt.Valuesoff = 0.89and r = 0-E*ere
25,000limesn ,, then th€ ejecledmas .esullingfrom a coll! oblainedt om one tesl inlo the spacecraftsrrucrure.and r( =
sion bel*een n4j and rttr at l0 km/s is 500 tines M,. If M, is 0.69 and , : -0-8:l *ere oblainedfiorn the olher tesl [de$,
lessthan 25.000tirnesnt,, lhen rhe collision is catasrrophic. 19?51.The velocitiesof fiasmens, measuredhom a :l0G
Theseresultsaresummarizedin Table l. alongwirh the.esutts lram€ls lilm. we.e found to be very slo{. aboul l0 lO m/s.
for glassand ll00-0 aluminun (low st.en8th.high duclility). Most of the fragmenlmassfrom basalltargetsis slo$e. than
Thc glassand alumirum testspere p.rformed bl !h€ Ames tW 6/\ Izook. t9611.
ResearchCehlef and the c.neral Moro6 D€fenseResearch Thus for collisionsbe!*een earth-orbitingobjects th€ fol,
Labo.aloriesior the JohnsonSpac€Cenre.. loeing rclationshipsas adopred:
The number of small fraSmenrsol mass M and larger
ejcctedliom a noncaksrrophiccollisioncan be exp.essed as M" = ll5M, {8)
N = K\M/M,|\ ( 7 ) *h.n Mz> ll5M,.ltM,< |l5Mr.thenilt = 11,(themassof
,t, wasassurned to be smlllorlosl)- Thc numberot fiaSments
ot mass,{r'and larser resultinSfrom the collisionis eivenby
TABLE L HtFrvebcny Inpacl Paranelers N = 0.8(M/M") "." (9)

P
S A T E L L TMT^Es s
25_000 Beforeth6e impact equalionscan be used,the individual
120.0002.000
2-t/.n 130 mas of each salelliten required.Som. of thesemassesare
It5 available,but nol in one sourc€.Mass ard ar@s for a few
palloids and rocketmotorsrere found in severalpublic{rions
f is Ihe minlmun ratio orrared m.s ro prcjecrlk nss causinB
€larhoDhic disruprionat l0 ln/?s. I is rh. rrrio oi ejectedmasst. I8o.nan, l9$. Codiss, 1961: Ma in, 1967ayon Araun and
prcjelil€ ma$ ln a ioncataslroDhiccollision ar t0 knvr Od*a!, t975;AercspaceDelenseConna ,19771,ard these
rNo 16ls have b€en p.raormedto oblain this valle. Thn loe.r dala are ploued in Figure5.Aho ploned is the debrisresulling
lihil aollowsfrom the d.finitions of r, and I' from rhe breakupof a Cenr^v D-l'l .ocker lDtugo aad Edge-
 \ :R r r H . r l r S l r ! r r r r r l ) r D R I \a r r r
K r s s r r R { \ D C ( t r r R - P r r A rA t64l

c o l l i s r o r s e r . i o u n d t o o c c u r$ i t h i n t h i s ( n u n e T h e n c u
. n c u l n . o . b i r o f m o s lo h j e c r sf o u n d$ n h r n l h i s v o l u d e c o n r
b i n € d$ i t h r h e l o t r c J c c t i o vne l o c i t ro i n ' o s r f r r g n r e n rssr s
l u s t i l i c l t i o nf o ! r $ u n 1 i n 8l h ! l 7 7 t i o l t h cc o l l i r n ) n rIlr l e d c n l s
sould rl\o bc lou.d vithin thi\ !oludc
T h u i r n x \ c r l C c d e b r i sf i u t f o r t h i s ! o l u m e o l \ r a c e $ r s

I = (.! / Lr)t'" ( tt )

s h e r cJ r sr h e! r . r ! g e r u m b e ro l o b j c d so 1m ! \ \ r r , n d l ! r e c r
l o u n d\ n h i n l o l u n c L rr n d f i s r h ef l u r o l d c b r aos l m r s s' r r '
r n d l r r g e r T h i s f l u \ * n s c o n r p u r cxds u i u n . r i o no r l i n c b )
i n c r c r \ i n gt h e l 8 6 6 s ! l e l l i t e \( 1 9 7 6n u m b c r )! t r h e n o n r , n r l '
f u l eo f i l 0 ! r . l l q a s c r l c u l l l e dl h d t 5 l ' ; o l l h e s c s a t e l L lrer sc
n o r n r t l t n r u n dq i l h i n r h e ! o l ! n r e o f s p r c cb c r \ r e c n 7 0 0! . d
l 2 0 Ok m . T h c c o l l i s i o n r a t e$ n h i nr h s v o l u n r cs ! s , s u m e d r o
b c 7 7 ' ; o f t h a l s h o { n i n F _ i 8 u r, le T h . n u d b e ro i l i r S m e n t s
= 8.70x
8encr.ledbI eachcollisionis Sivenbv (9) $here .v.
Frg 5. Sn'ellrremr\\ rcaus rrerlge cr^\ sr.fon to'.
The projecreddebrisflux i\ shori in Figurc6 ld the ye.A
1 9 9 0 . 2 0 2 0a-n d 2 1 0 0 .c o n r p r r e dw i t h r h c n d r u r r lm c t c o t u r i d
@ r ' b e . l 9 7 . l l .T h e d a t a s e r e f o u n d r o l i r r h e r e l r r i o n s h i p l ' u r I < u r - P o l a i \ . l 9 6 9 l a n dt h <c u r . . r ( 1 9 1 6d) e b r i sf l u r t h e
(10) curc lbr (he curent debris flux is fllt lor debr- mascs less
thxn lm s onl! becruselhesesi/cs crnnor curcntl) be ob'
$here ,lt is the nr{s of rhe rarelliteir grams rnd ,.1.i\ irs \ c ^ e d E f e n s o . i o r m c t e o r c i dm r s
8rclrerrhln 0.1 g the
rveraSecro$ \eclronin squrre merem.The slopeofrhis lir $rs cure.r d e b r i s
R u x b e t s e c n? 0 0 d n d l l 0 o tnr !lread!exceeds
e \ p e c t e dt o b e b e r t r e e nl 0 ( $ h i c h $ o ! l d b e r r u e o f h o l l o $ t h c n ! t u r ! l m e t c d r o i dn u x . A s i s i l l u n r a l e di n F i e u r c6 , !
s l r u c t u r eust h c o n s t r nrt h i c k n e s$sr l h ) ! n d 1 . 5( * h i c h{ o u l d \ i s n i r i c r nnt u d b e ro l d c b n sf r a g n e n t s m r l l e rt h a nl 0 O s $ i l l
b e r r u e o f s r r u c r u r ehsa v i n ga c o n s r r n rd a s d c n s i r y )T. h . b c e c n c r r l e di . l h e i u l u r e ,l u t t h c r e x c e e d i ntSh t m e l e o r o r d
lrlue of l.1l tell*irhin th; raree
T h e r e f o .m e l s € s w e r er s i S n e dt o e a c ho l t b e s i z e s h o * n i n To illustratc the effect o. lulure splce missions.consid€r
F a s u r el . a c c o . d i n st o ( 1 0 ) .T h e a m o u n ro r m a s se j e c r e d jn
t h r e el r l ) e s o f m i s s i o n sT. h e f i r l L i s d n u n m a n n e ds a t e l l i t e
collisionsbetweeneachsize{as crlcularedby using(8)r ho{- h ! \ i n C . n a l e r r g ec r o $ s e c t i o no l l 0 m ' ( i . e . .r b o u r 1 . 6n r
e!er. the ejectedmlss srs not allo*ed to €xceedrhe nlassol d i a m e l e r!)n d ! d e s i r e rdv c r a g el i f e l i m eo f I 0 t c x 6 . T h e ! r e a -
the larger object (the tarSetmass).Each collilon was rhen l i m c p r o d u c o t l s u c h! s a t e l l i tsco u l d b c l t y m " ! r - 5 0t h a tt h e
*eiShredaccordlng10irs probabjln! otoccurienccir orderto dcsignllux- ro ensuredn rveragel0-)r litelime,trould bc l0 r/
obLljn an !!e.age mdsscjectedp6r collision.A resultol li70 d ' y r l l m e r e o r o r d s . rreh eo n l yh l z I d , r h c nF i e u r e6 p . e d ' c l s
k e / c o l h s i o ns l s o b t ! i n e d .A d e t a i l e de r a r n i n ! t i o nr e v c a l c d t h r t r h r $ t e l l i r es h o u l db e d e s l g n e tdo s u r v i l ex 2 I l 0 ' 8
thll most massresultedfiom sarellil6sbelwcen16 rnd 40 nr'
b e i n gi d p a c l c db t s d t e l l i t eosf O 2 5 m ' a n d l d r S e rL: h u sr h e
e j e c r em d N $w N sI ' m 1 t €idn m a n )c l s e rb t l h e m ! s d l a i l a b l ei n

This su8gested thrt the .vcrag€ejccrcdmas m!y be lit'rli

i n s e n s n i vreo ( 8 ) . T h i s s e n s i t i v i tsyr s l e s t e db r r l l o w i n Bt h c
c o n s l ! n l t o v l r y b r I i a c t o r o f l 0 o n e i l h e r s i d eo l l l 5 ,
resullingin the rveruBeejededm.ss !nr\nre from 4,10to I 190
l - s . o l N r ' n \ r n u r ( r ( d l , ! i . I n $ c , l i n t i r t ^ r h eJ , ' n . . J n . .
( E )i sa b o u tNf a c l o ro f 4 l e s s( r e s u l r i nien a n d v e r l e co f 6 0 0k C /
c o l l i s i o n )$. h i l c t h eu n l ) e r l i m i t m r )b e a i r c l o r o l l 0 o r m o r e
h r g c r .o s i n g t o t h ec o n c e pol l c a l u n r o p h i c o l l i s i o i s( i . e . L , he
r a l u e o ff i n ( 1 ) c o u l d b e l l 5 0 o r h r g e r )T h l s r h e m e a s u r e d ;:
sizedistributionoidebris cxusesrhe averaBc ejeclednrdssto be
t u n l r _i n s e n l l i ! e t o r h e u n c e r t l i n r ti n m a s se J e c L eddu n n g l
c o l l i s i o nT. h c s e n s i t i v i ls) o u l d i n c r e l s ei i r s u i i c i e nnl u n b e r
o f o b j e c r ss n a l l e rt h d n 0 2 5 d ? t r e r ek n o $ n 1 o b e i n c r r r h

T h u s o n t h e b a s i so i c u r e n r l ! o b s e r v c dd i s r r i b u l i o no l
satellitesan averageol M. = 8 ? x l0r g is cjectedLnerch
c o l l t s i o ns h o t r ni . F i g u r c4 .
s r . L rB L r l v r E :7\ 0 0a N Dl 2 0 0 K M
A\!R46! DLsRrF
8 y i n t e S r a t i n(g2 ) o \ e r l b e r e g i o no l s p a c eh e l * e e i ? 0 0d i d Fic. 6 A.etugc debrlsftrr betseen 70(rrnd l]0o km: rssumes
1 2 0 0k m a c u r r e n tc o l l i s i o nr a l e o l 0 . 0 1 J r * a s o b t r l n c d , r h ! ( l ) r h c n c ( s d t e l ! n e i n D u r r r r e , \ a l h r ttsr s. nl 0d l l r l h e r e , s n o
c o m p a r c dt o 0 . 0 1 3 / y rl o r a l l o f s p a c eT. h u sa b o u t7 7 9 "o i t h e
 2642 K€ssLCr^\o CouR-P^L^rsrArnpn^L S^rELU1EDE6rrs BFrr

TABLE 2- O.sien R.quiremenrslor ThE Hypoficti.al Mnsions

DesisnRur. inpacls/n! yr to.

Design mc|coroid inpacr nass. g 2 X1 0 .
Y.ar2020, l2@lm ahitudc.debris
designihpad mass.E 20
Al!iludc band shcrc€quilibriun dcbris
fl ux erGds n.t.o.oid nur {assuming
changclo z*o nct sat.lliI. input after

t980 '75Gl2m
500-1200
2020 800-l2m 5 5 0t 2 m

meto.oid impact. The secondlype is a mann€dspac€c.afi
havingan averagecrds sction of 100ln:. a missionduraiion
ot I yr. and a d€siredprobabilityof impactdamagoof lessthan
0 - O l . l nt h i s c a s leh e d e s i S fnl u xy o u l d b € l 0 t / m r y r , o r a b o u t
thesamcasthe 1973-1974 Skylabmission.A neEoroid shield,
veighing over 100 k8. was added to the Skylab srrucrurein
orde. to protecl rr agajnsl| 0 , 8 m€reoroidimpacrs.The thi.d
typ€ ofmission is a largospac.slalionhavingan averagecros
salion of 10.000m, (i.e., a lhrl€ over loGm diametef), a
missionduraiion oi l0 yr. and a dcsnedprobabilily ofimpact
damaseol l€s than 0.1.The designnux would be l0-./m, yr.
r€quning protcctionaSainsla 0.4-g meteoroid.Thesecondi-
tions arc summarizedin Tabl€ 2-
How€ver,under cenain @nditions,as illusrratedin Figu.€
6, the deb.isflux fo. th€semissionsmay .xc€edrhe meteoroid
flur. By the year 2020th. unnarncd, Skylab,and spacesra-
lion typemissionsmay requireprotectiodagainslaI x l0 .g.
2 g. and 5 \ I0 I debrispanrclc,resp€crivel'.I hesemrlons
would rcquire more w€i8ht for impacr p.ot€crion.However,
protetron requjremenrsaSaiosteven I l0o.g impact are so
s€v€rethat a spacestationtnay havero eith€raccepta much
higher probabilily of impast danag. or b. restricredro alti-
lud€sshc.€ lhe debrisffux is low.r.
The increasedrisk of impact damag. may lead ro c€nait
constraintsbeing placed on launchcdsatellitesin order to
r€duc€the proj€cleddebrishadrd. For pu.posesof illusrra-
tion it was assumedrhar bcgin.ina in 2020.rhe ner saletlire
input rate ol510/y. js changcdlo z.o. A zero rare can be
naintai.ed by ceasingall launch acrivity,..turnin8 a similar
obj€ctfor everyobjed pla@dinto o.bit, orcausinsrhereentry
ofunused obj€cts.The resultsoflftis dsumDtjonare shownin
Figur.7. Nolice rhat the fux ot fragmentsconrinucsto in-
crcas€ after th€ !ea. 2020.
pr€limiMry analysisindicatedthar rhe uncenainryin riming ol
lhis phenomenonis largebul probablyofrhe order ot*veral
hundredyears.(l) The presence ol objecrslhal a.e roo smallro
be det@redb) ground radar would imply rhar rhe curenr
debrisnD( shouldbe increasedcorrespondinSly_ Theseobjecrs
musl already cxisl as the resuhs of numeroussarellireex-
plosionsand orher tlpes of deb.is lNerre er 4r. 1976].Ho$-
ever.a prelimif,aryanallsisconcludedrhat thecurrcnt numbe.
would hav€ to be hiSher than the l99O or 2020 projected
numberbetorethe objectswould becomesisnificanlconrrib-
ulers to the collision-fragmenlation process.Thus white tbe
f8% deficiencyobserled in rhe SDC caralog luendrut and
,{nd.'s@. l9?61mcansrhat the current d€b.is flur should be
increasedby l8%.1hepro.jected debris.esuhingfrom fraSmen-
tation *ould be increasedby much lcssrhal l8%. In facr.ilthe
unobs€rvedpopulalion oi small fraSmen6requircsrhat rhe
total n umb€.of obs.rvedsatellitesbe incresed by a facrorof
2.5. as suggested by ,rookr et al [19?5].rhen rhe numberof
collisionalfragmcntswould be increa*d by lesslhan l%.
While the lhG additjonal sourccsmay repres.nta small
etrectwhen thcy arc laken individually,lhey nay cornbinero
produc a sisnifr€nr .trecr ror erample.a 2.5 lacror Incrcase
in thc obsred DoDulation.combincd eilh a more .ealistic
I5

OrHERSourcfs ^NDSrNxsFoRDEBRTS
The etreclsof catastrophic@llisions,collisionsinvolving ag
fragmentsfrom previouscollisions.and rhccurenr numberol
unobs.ved small fiagh.nts all repres.nr othe. sourcesof *:
debris. increasingrh. resulrsprent€d thus far. Each source
has be€nlook€da1ir somcdetail.and ach is iounq ro navea
relatively small efect. (l) As was previoudy staled, the
amountofmass produc€dp€rcollisionismos y Umiredbyrhe
amouf,t of massavailableithus thc conept of caralrrophic
collisionscould only aboul double the amount of lragment
masspe. collision.(2) With lime, enoughcollisionalfragmenrs
could be producedto bccom. impodanr in producing ne*
collisionalfragme.ts. When lh€s. @nditionsapply, lhe num-
Fig.7. Avera8ed€bris flux betwe.. 7m and 1200km: assumd
bcr of objects will increaseerponentially rilh time. even rhal ( l) rh. ncl etcl|nc inpur rale chan!€sfron 5t0/yr ro Fo in the
though no new objectsmay bc placedinto orbit by man.Some y.ar 2020and (2) 1fi.r. h no atnosph€ricdrag.
 KEssLEr ^ND CouR-PALAIS:ARtFrct^r
valuc of calastrophicdisruption massratio f', could double
the number of collision fragments.Also, the exponentialin-
crqse in fragnenls with time (sour@ 2) could be obse.ved
much earlier than seve.alhundr.d years,dependinSon the
natur€ of calastrophiccollisions.the p.ojecied nu6ber and
sirc offDture satelli|es.and th€ cur.enl numberofunobseNed
small f.agments.Meanin8fulanalysisof this lype musl awail
Only a f€* sinks, or r€movalm€chanisns.eiisl fof ea.th'
orbili.8 salellites.They are basicallyonly.et.ievaland almo-
sphcric r€entry.One could argu. tha! as a resull of ca!a-
st.ophiccollhions,larg€objectsdisappea.,and thus collision
is a sink for theseobjecls.Howcvcr, hundredsof yearsare
requircdbefo.e ihis bcom6 a significantsink. ahereascollj.
sion is a much rnoreimportant sourccofsnall fragmenlsat a
much eaflief dat€.Thus for rhe near future it is accuralelo
think ofcollisions as only a source.
lf retrieval is implem€nl€d,il could significantlyallcr lh.
conclusionsreachedthus far. Collisio. .atd are proporlional
to thc collisioncrosssectionofsatelli(es-Figure3 reveaklhat
90%of the sarcllirearea is containedi. 209bof the sal€llit€s.
Thus r€movaloflargesatellitescould €feliv.ly slowdoan the
collisionrate. How€ver,as thc numb.r ofcollision lragmcnts
incre3ses. the conc.nrrationof area*illmove loward !h€ nor€
num.rous. smaller objccts.making il |norc dimcull 1o slow
down th€ fra8menlationprocessby retri€val.
Atmosphericdrag villcv€ntually €us the reenlryofmany
objcctsin orbit. Drag acts nos! quickly on smalllow-altitud€
objectsand is a significantfaclor in r.ducine the number of
srlellitesbelov 400 km, as is sftownin Figu.e l. The projected
numb€rof small fragmentsbeteeen7m and 1200km sill be
r.duced from that shoen in Figurd 6 and ? by the efecls of
atmosphcricd.ag. Ho*e!er. sincc the collision lr€quenc! is
low at alliludeslesslhan 700 km, atmosph.ricdragwill aci as
the primary sourceof fragmentsat theselower allitudes.That
is. drag *ill act to removecollisiorfragmcnlstrom the 70G to
l2Gkm r.gion and drag then throuShth€selow€r aliil{td€s.
Thus sincealmosphcricdragis th.onlynaluralsinl fof deb.k
and sinceil may b€ an inponant sou.ce ot debrh at lower
akitud6. it d€s€ftesa more detailedaralysis.
P!
= I for lheyear2020.Thechangeloa zerot.r satcltit€if,Put.ate
-
Fig.8. Averagedebis fluxar l20lm: asrum.srbatlhene1satcllire Skylab aod spae station lyp€ missionsthe debris flux $as
inpurtat. chang.sfron 510/yrro z.io in th. ycar2020.
S^rtLLIrE DEERISBFLr 26/3
9e
6:
=*
a
Fis.9. Avdlee dcb.h frux at 800 kmiasun6rhm thc net satclhe
inpul rat cnangesfrom 510/yr to zcro in lhe:_ear2020.
DRAc
ArMosPHERtc
Alnospheric drag willnct to fi61 circularizean orbil, lhen
causethe objecl to spiral inlo the ahosphcr€. The spe€dat
which this processvorks is proportionallo rhe areato mass
r a r i oo l L h eo b j e c ra. \ { e l l d . r h ea L m o \ p h e rdi ce n s i l }a t a S i r e n
allitude [t/adi,r. | 967].Wilh the useof th. atmosphe.icmodel
ot ro! [97]1, energy loss rates wer. calculatedto obuin
orbitald@ey times.The lime for a l-cm-radiussphqeofmass
d€nsity2 s/cm' (massof E.4g ) to chang€its ahirud€by 100km
lor circularorbitsof6m km and 1200km wascalculaledto be
32 y. and 455 yr, resp€ctively.Thk comparesro I lO yr and
2000yr. .6petiv€ly, calcllaled by Ma in lt967l ^nd m yl
and lm yr, respectively. calculatedby ,tooh "r 4l I 19751. The
large rang. in vrlues .esulls from uncertainliesin rhe ,rno-
sphericmodel and drag coeflicjenls.
Lifelimes at a particular allilud€ were assumed1o Ite lhe
sameasth€ calculatedvaluesfor a circularorbit to d@rease bv
l0o km. Ofcoursc. actuallifelimescould be tonSero.shorler,
daending on orbital periSeeor apogee.Howev.r. sincemost
of tfte satelliteswithin the 700- to 800'km band arc in neady
circular orbits. this approximalionshould bc fairly accurate
Lifelimc as a tunclion ofoanicl€ sizevariesas Darlicleradius,
assuminSa consta.t massdensity.
Thus a mod.l sas developedvhich calculaledthe nunbe.
ofcollisionatrrasmenlsofa parlicularsiz€whichare p.oduc€d
duringlhe litelimeotthal size.FiSur€Egivcsthe rcsultsofthal
model al l2oGkm ahitLrde.By comparisonlo Fi8urc 7. draS
hadnoetrat on thedeb.isdesignirnpaclmasssgivenin Table
in 2O2Ostill led 10 an ibcreas.ddebrisflux in 2lm. allhough
lhe ntrr of d€bris pnrliclesof les than 0.1 8 was reducedby
FiSure9giv6 the resultsofamosph€ric drag tl Sm lm. In
comparisonwith Fi8u.e T lhodebrisdesignimpac(massforan
unmannedmissionin the year 2020was reduced.although(
*as slill highe. than th€ meteoroidd.sign inpact nass For
€sscntiallyunchangedby ahosph€ric dra8. Of Panicular in_
 2644 K r s r r r * \ \ n C o ' p . P a . 1 r \A: R r r r r a r S ^ l ' I I ' F D t s B NBr \r .

t.rcst id Figure9 is that a chang. ir rhe ner sareltireinput rale

lo zero in the year 2020rcsullcdin a neaFequilibriumbeing
sl.blished for timesafrer thar dare.That is. collisionatfrag-
mentsare belnggeneraledar the sam€rate as they are beinS
removedby ahospheric drag. This equilibrium was reached
almost imm€dial€lyafter rhe year 2020fof sizessmallerrhan
about 0.1 g. while the siz€sbelwen 0-l and ll} g were near
equalibriumin 2020. reachinsil by the ycar 2100. By com-
paring Figures8 and 9 an equilibriumar 1200km vas reacneo
for sizessmallefrhan0.1 g by the year2 tm bur ar a nux tevel
aboul a iaclor of l0 lar8er than rhar at EoOkm.
Theseequilibriumdebrislevehsu88es( anotherway oflook-
in8 at the future debrisRuxes:lhar is. Sivena dale ro change
from a net salelliteinput .al€ of 510/yr (o zero.$har wilt rhe F g . l l . R r r i oo l e q u i h b r i udne b r ilsl u xa l s i v e n . t t n u dl oe f t u ra l
equilibriDmd€brisflux evenluallvbaome? For alritudesbeto* lt00km.
800 km the equilibrium will be rcach€datmost immediarety
at(erthe changeto zeroinput dare.wher€asfor alritudesur' 10
l20o lm. severalhundred yearsmay bcrequi.€d,especjay tor unnann€d salelli(esfrom being afecred by lhe debris flux
the larSerd€brissizes.Figur€ l0 showsrhe averageequitib, anywherein space-Skylab and spacoslatior typ. missions
rium debrisflux a1800km for variouschangeinpul rale dares. would be atrectedbelwe€n750 and l20Okm and 5m and 1200
Notice thal evenan early(19E0)changcro zeronet inpul rare lm. respectively.Ho*ev€r, il the chang€dcs oot occur Dnlil
would evcnlually affecl Skylab ryp. missions at E00 km. the yqr 202q the regionof spacerhere unnanned missions
whe.ers unmannedmissionswould nor b. atrecleda! this would be af€cl€d becomes800-1200km, and the Skylaband
al(itudeuntila changeafter2020-A simila.curvefor l20O-km spae stations.egionsafected expandlo 550-l2m km and
altitude would be about a factor ol tO hi8her. Tho time re- 400-| 500kn, rcspetively.Thusan increascin rhechangedate
qui.ed for atmosphericdraS ro drag a fragmenrthrough a leadslo lar8er regionsof spacewh€re the debris flux could
p a r t i c u l a r a h i t u d e k i n v e r s e l y p r o p o . r itooni haet a t m o s p n e n c evenlually exceedthe neleoroid f!x. The onl) obvious
densityat thar altitude.Thus rhe averagecquitibriuir debris m e l h o do f l o s e r i n Cl h r \ r ! e n r u a le q u i l , b r i u mf l u x r r l o m r n r .
nux at ahitudesbelow800 km (and acluattyaboveE00km, up miz. thc numbe. ot large satelliles.eithe. b!. a changein
lo 1200km). was found by taking th€ mrio of ihe aLmospnenc launchpracli@sor by retrieval.
dcnsily al thar alritud€ro rhe armosphericde.siiy ar 800 tm.
Figur. ll gives that mtio of equilib.ium fluxes.Thus for THE'PoTENrraL'DEsRrsENurosyENr
e r a m p l er.h e e q u i l i b r i u nmu r a r 5 m k m q a s t o u n db y r c d u c i n g Thus lar. thc physicalprccesses of collisionand ahospheric
the debrisfluxesin FiSure l0 by a factor of 10. drag havebeenappliod10 the obscrveddislriburionof sarel-
From thh type of analysisrh€ region of spacewne.e rne lit€s in earthorbit iD an allempt to predicrrh€ lime history of
dcbris flux could exceed$€ nalural met@.oidflux qas deleF debrisin €a.th orbit. However,il is known thar sat€llit.scan
m i n e dt o r r h e r h r e er y p e ro t m i s s i o n sT. a b t e2 s u m r a r i r e s f.agm€ntfrom oth€r sourcesand that ax€mplcd modelingoi
th* altiiude bands,asuming a changeb the zdo ne1inpu! ircomplcrc drla may p.€dicr the futur€ debris fiux in-
ratc in 1980or 2020.An early (t980) changevoutd prevcnr
Anothe. approachmigh! be ro definethe porenrial'debris
flur and tft.n dev€lopargum€nlswhich $ould prcvent rhis
porental trom being realized.This tlpe of analysiswould
producefrux curv.s much hi8hefthan th. prcviouscuflei bur
lhe analysiswould p.edict accurarelywhat is possible.al-
though not r.ccsa.ily what is probable.A beginrinSpoi.i
would be to:rssum€that allsatellites,rhroughsofrc unknosn
mechan'sm, becomefragmertedinro som.preferrcdbut yerto
b€ dererminedlragmenlsize.Th€ porenlialflur as a funcrion
of nass is then found by asuding fiar alloflh6€ fragnenls
are of thc prcfered size. Thk potential Rux is actuatlyan
5e envelopeot singlc-sizefluxes.As dara b€comeavailablerhal
-a indicatelhat onll somefraction of the rotal ma$ gGs into a
padicular size intcrval.then !h. pot€nrialflux could be los
eredappropriatelyin fiat sizeinrerval.
Th€ averagesat€llitemassqas found (by usingFigure3 and
( 1 0 ) )t o b . l - 3 x l 0 g . o r a t o t a lI 9 7 6s a l e l l i t m
e a s so f 5 x l 0
g- It this total m6s were1o fragmenrinro debrisof massn-l.
th.n lhe nunber of fragmentswould be
(r 2 )
It lhesefragm€ntsmainlainedthc sameorbirs as rhe oriSinal
3E66saielliles.rhen by usingthe samelechniquesas rheorigj-
Fi8 10. Averlge equilib.iun debrisdux!r8OOkfr:assunesthurth€ nal mod.l, the'ave.agepotential flur' botwen 70O.nd 1200
net stcllite inpul ratc chanS.sf.on 510/yr lo z€ro ni s,v€ny€ar. km was found and is sbo*n in Figure 12. Notc rhat if.his
 ^ND Cour-PArA6: aRlFrht
KESSLER s^rELLrrED€uR'sBFIr 2645

l0 cm. An oplical experinenl is d€sc.ibedby ,\erre .r o/.

l19T6lwhichwould delectdeb.isin lhe l-mm to IGcm .anee.
With th€ availabilityolimp.oled inpul data.a modelcouldbe
develop€dto includethe.esultsfrom erplosions,the.ffectsof
collisions rdulting from collision lragments.the efecls of
catastrophiccoltisions,and orbitalchane€sr€sullingf.orn col_

various metfiods1o stop or slow !h€ lorrnalion of a debr;

b.h should bc s(udied.The model suSSests that lh. mosr
eff€cliveway would be to fteepthe numberot largeobje.ls as
small as practic:|l.This could be accomplishedby Planning
launchB so that largeobjeclscan be causcdto recn(erwhen
=E their usefulnessis complete or bl osing the spaceshuule
concept1o.€lricve objectsin orbit *hich no lon8er scrve a
useful fundion. Since it is inpfactical to relri€v€ the much
larS€r numbq of large and small fragmetts. eve.) etron
shouldbe madeto prevenltheir productionin space.eilher by
explosio. or by collision.
The evolulion of the debrisbelt should be folloted 1o ns
conclusion.As was pointed out by AUcAh an.l A naius
09761, the consequenc.of many collisiots is to chanSethe
Fig. 12. Potential debrisnux bereecn?m and 1200tm Porential orbitsofobjecb ro be more alike.This procds may be respon'
d r op n e nm " $
R u \ s ( J n e ' r h r rr l l ' d r e l h Laec\ l r d C m . n r .i n siblefor crqlin8'jet slreamJ in the asteroidbelt. With tirne,
accordingto Alfv€n, thesejetstreamorbils villbecome identi_
cal. and a singl€planet will acc.ele(billions ot ys6 in lhe
potendal sere evef realizcd,all types ot missionsinto this fulure) al 2.EAU. Ho*e!er, in the caseot the eanh the debris
regionwould expe.iencc a flux levelfar in ercessofthe natu.al beh will b. *'ithin the Roche'slimit (lessrhan 90m_km alli
meleoroidflux. In facr.sinceit becomesimp.acticalto protecl tude). p.evenlingaccretioninto a sinSl€object-Thus rhe end
a8ainstimpactslarger rhan about l0o 8. all missionswould resull.assumingthat drag doesnot act fasl enouSh.could be a
have1o expecldamagein c.nain reeionsofspacc. rinS system,similar to that afound Saturn and Uranus-
The potential flux fo. other distancesmay be scaledtrom
Figure L For exampl€,the spalialdensilyat 100km oas found CoNcLUsro:\s
ftom Figu.e I 10be abouta facrorof30lover ihan the average
bcts€en7m and 1200kinr thus th€ dcbrt curv€sin FiSurel2 A model has been developedwhich consideB the major
could be loser by this amounl lo obtain the 3m-km fluxes. source and sirk lermslor the 8roslh ofthe satell;tepopulalion
As moremassh addedto lh. sysl.mwith lime.lhe potential in ea h orbir. whil€ signiflcanluncenainriesexist.the follow'
flux {ill inqeasecoiiespondingly.The polential 8ux can be ing conclusions. itcurrenl trendsconlinue.seemunavoidable:
decreased as data becomeavailabl.. For example.a1least3l L Collisional b.eakup of salelliteseill become a new
larg€rsatellit€s.or abour I% otlhe lolal number of salelliies, source lor addilional salellitedebris in the near tuture.posi'
hale al.eadyexplodedin otbil.Iltest. et al..1916).ll ln9men- bl) *€ll before the year 2000.
tation co!ld be lidited to ths ll explosions.then the poten_ 2. Once collisional breakup begins.lhe deb.is flur in ceF
raclor l0O. In addition, if it lain rcSions rea. earth may quickly exced lhenatural meleor
tial flux could be r.ducedby a of
were found that only a smallf.action ofthe frrgmentedmas
wereoi a padicular sizeor largcr,then the polential flux lor l. Over a longer time period the debris flux will increase
exponenriallt with time.eventhougha zeronet inpul rae mar-
that sizeco!ld be feducedfunher.
Howelef, if fraSmentarionis maintainedal l%, or about 5
erplosionsper year. the potential flux *ould cortinue to in- 4. The procsses which will p.oducethesefragmentsate
crelse unlil an equilibriumis r@chedwilh atmosphericdrag. lotally analogousto the processes thal probably ccurred rn
the formation of the asleroid bell bur requic a much shoner
A1600 km this equilibrium*ould b€ about4% oflhepotential
flux shown in Fisure 12 for fragmentsof 8.4 I and 0.4%for
fiagmenlsof 8.4 x l0 '9. Thus withoul neaningfuldata or Efalive m.thods exist 10 aller lhe current trend withoul
the actual size distribution ot fra8ments.th€ expectedfrag' significantly alleri.g the number ol operationalsalellitesin
reducingth6 projectednumber
menrationrate, and th€ tifeljm€of thesefragmenlsit is diffi- orbil. Th€sem€thodsinclude
of large. nonop.rational salellites and improv.d engineering
cult 1o lower !h€ polential debrisnux significanlly.
designswhich reducethe frequencyof sal.llite breakupsf.om
F U T U R E A N ^ t Y s! E ' sa u ' R E D slructuralfailureand explosionsin space.Delayin implemen_
eflectivef,ess.
In order to feduceth€ uncenairty in the projecteddebris rarion ofrh6e methodsreduc€stheir
environmenl,additionaldatawill b€ r.quired on the efectsof
hypervelocilycollisionsbclweenspacecraft,as sell as tho ef- A&norlerEnerk. we thantJoeM. Alrarcz(NASA)for helplul
f@ls of other spacecrafttraSmenlationprocesses. Addilional dncusionsof Fast*ork in theseareas,leadinglo lurlhcr helpful
(NORAD)andLar,! Rice(SAl)
dala on the numberol smallobjectsin spacecan be obtain€d disusion $i1hPrcsonM. Landry
We ackno*l€dg.suggesrions by HerbcrtA. Zook and Andre{ E
bl r detailedexaminationol individuallaunchand orbil injec- Porl€r(NASA)qhichledto changes in thccontenlotlhis papcr'
rion p.ocedures.The resul!sot rhesestudicsshouldbe tested TheEdilorthantsD. R. Brooksandv. J. D€eo forrncnassisrdnce
by expe.imentsdesignedto delel objats in orbit tmalle.lhan in .Yrluaringlhispaper.
 2&6 KEsslr* ^ND CoLR-P^LArs:
ArlFrcr^r S4TFLLTEDEBirs BELr

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