Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Appendix F - Options For U.S Armed Forces Response To President Trump's Refusal To Leave Office
Appendix F - Options For U.S Armed Forces Response To President Trump's Refusal To Leave Office
Appendix F: Analysis of Alternatives - Options for U.S Armed Forces Response to President Trump’s Refusal to
Leave Office
Status of Indicators for U.S. Armed Forces Response to President Trump’s Refusal to Leave Office
(As of 5 October 2020)
No Information to Assess
Severe Risk to Transition
No Risk to Transition
Risk to Transition
Military Stays in the Barracks
(Best Case Scenario)
Risk Levels
1
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Options for U.S Armed Forces Response to President Trump’s Refusal to Leave Office
The CJCS/JCS and senior military officers declare the military’s Trump military loyalists express their willingness Constitutionalist military officers signal their
neutrality and treat this as a constitutional crisis to be decided by the to support the commander-in-chief and swiftly unwillingness to support presidential orders to
courts and legislature. Senior military leadership, seeking to preserve deploy regular and national guard military deploy the military forces to quell dissent, and
the military’s integrity, backs the CJCS/JCS position. It is possible some forces to quell radical, left-wing Democrat actively seek to defend the U.S. Constitution
commanders may disagree with this course of action. opponents (insurrections). If the worst-case from right-wing extremists. The CJCS/JCS may or
scenario occurs, it is very likely the military will may not support the actions of the
It is assumed State governors would retain control over Army and Air
be supported by DHS paramilitary forces and Constitutionalist military.
National Guard forces making them available to support State Active
irregular militia/vigilante groups.
Duty (SAD) or Military Support to Civilian Authorities (MSCA) missions. Constitutionalist US military forces and DCNG
Military units under Joint Force Headquarters will deploy to protect key government
National Capital Region (JFHQ-NCR), including institutions in the NCR.
While most military units will follow the CJCS/JCS declaration of Washington Military District (WMD) and the
It is assumed State governors retain control over
neutrality, it is possible that some units led by Trump loyalists will DCNG are rapidly deployed to secure key
their Army and Air National Guard, making
rebel against this position and chose to support Trump. government facilities in the National Capital
them available to support SAD/MSCA missions.
Region (NCR) (White House, Congress and the
Whether they support the Title 10 missions may
Supreme Court, etc.), as well to detain
depend on the individual state.
opposition politicians, and secure key critical
communications facilities required for the
continuity of operations of the government.
US Military throughout CONUS will increase
readiness, conduct force protection for their
respective facilities, and prepare CONUS-based
US Army and Marine Corps quick-reaction force
(QRF) for deployment.
Loyalist Republican governors in states where
there is a clear Republican majority would very
likely support Federal Title 10 (Active Duty) /
Title 32 (Full-Time National Guard Duty) call-up
orders to deploy State guard if requested.
Opposition Democrat governors would very
likely refuse federal Title 10/32 activation orders
2
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
3
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Indicators for U.S Armed Forces Response to President Trump’s Refusal to Leave Office
Comments in GREEN indicate positive action supporting peaceful transition.
Comments in RED indicate negative actions in the transference of power.
SecDef, CJCS, and JCS issue statements that President Trump refuses to relinquish the Office of ‘Constitutionalist’ military officers issue a
the contested election and transition are a the Presidency citing the illegitimacy of the ‘pronouncement’ throwing their support
matter for Congress and the Judiciary, not the election. behind the opposition Biden
military. Administration.
Or
CJCS Gen. Mark Milley, told members of
In the run up to the election, Trump calls the
Congress that the military would steer clear
process flawed and seizes power in defiance of the
of the upcoming presidential election
U.S. Constitution.
process, refuse to obey unlawful orders, and
will not help settle any disputes if the results President Trump’s relentless efforts to sow doubts
are contested.1, 2 about the legitimacy of this year’s election are
forcing both parties to reckon with the possibility
that he may dispute the result in November if he
loses — leading to an unprecedented test of
American democracy.3
Comment: Critical Indicator
CONUS and OCONUS military force readiness President removes SecDef Esper and CJCS Milley The Pentagon and NMCC are seized by
conditions (DEFCONa and FPCONb) are almost from their positions, making way for compliant the Constitutionalist military forces; the
certainly increased to show our adversaries replacements who will support the president’s PFPA is very likely relieved of their
course of action. responsibilities at the Pentagon.
a
Defense Readiness Condition (DEFCON) system is an alert state used by the U.S. Armed Forces. The DEFCON level is controlled primarily by the U.S. president
and the U.S. Secretary of Defense through the CJCS and the Combatant Commanders; each level defines specific security, activation, and response scenarios
for the personnel in question.
b
Force Protection Condition (FPCON) is a counter-terrorist threat system that describes the number of measures needed to be taken by security agencies in
response to various levels of terrorist threats against military facilities. The commander of NORTHCOM sets the FPCON level for CONUS military installations.
4
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
5
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
In addition to Pentagon Force Protection President Trump calls for or invokes the Constitutionalist QRF units are alerted
Agency (PFPA),c military forces from the WMD Insurrection Act of 1807 and directs U.S. Northern and deployed to secure government
are deployed to secure the Pentagon complex Command (NORTHCOM) to deploy CONUS-based institutions within the District of
and the National Military Command Center active-duty military forces “to suppress … any Columbia.
(NMCC). insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful
Note: The DCNG is assumed to be loyal
combination, or conspiracy.”
As of 8 September 2020, the Pentagon is at to the District.
FPCON BRAVO.9d On 1 June 2020, SecDef Esper and Vice President
Pence reportedly advised the president on to
invoke the Insurrection Act,10 though Esper has
since said that he does not favor invoking it. 11
On 28 August 2020, Trump said to consider
invoking 'insurrection' law after demonstrator’s
attack on Senator Rand Paul outside White
House.12, 13, 14
On 30 August 2020, hashtag #InsurrectionAct is
trending across social media platforms such as
Twitter with POTUS Donald Trump's supporters
calling for Trump to invoke the Act.15
Comment: Critical Indicator
Military weapons and ammunition stockpiles Increased rhetoric on protest-related violence and Constitutionalist QRF are deployed to
are secured to prevent theft by militia threats to use active-duty military to suppress civil seizes control of major telephone, radio,
elements. disturbances. and television networks.
Much of the RNC focused on the topic of crime,
particularly decrying violence in Blue states and
cities, casting Trump as a bringer of law and order
and slamming violence-ridden cities.16
c
The Pentagon Force Protection Agency (PFPA) is responsible for protecting and safeguarding designated DoD personnel, resources, and facilities.
d
FPCON BRAVO applies when an increased or more predictable threat of terrorist activity exists.
6
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
8
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Largescale callup and activation of National Guard National guard units will be activated by
units are activated under Title 32 and deployment their respective Governors for SAD/
under NORTHCOM command and control. MSCA missions.
9
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
e
Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) is a mutual aid agreement that allows governors to provide state-to-state assistance during declared
states of emergency. It will enable other states to provide resources such as National Guard troops and equipment to the requesting state. National Guard
troops from other states mobilized do so in a State Active Duty status – not in a federal status. Those troops would fall under the operational control of
Wisconsin’s adjutant general during their mobilization but remain under their respective State’s administrative control.
10
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
11
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
12
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Endnotes
1
Website; CNN; Top US general tells Congress the military won't play a role in the 2020 election; 28 August 2020;
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/politics/milley-2020-election/index.html; The Cable News Network (CNN) is an American basic cable, satellite television
channel, and website. CNN is rated Left Biased based on editorial positions that consistently favors the left, while straight news reporting falls Left-Center
through bias by omission, according to the MBFC website. They are also rated Mixed for factual reporting due to several failed fact checks by TV hosts.
However, news reporting on the website tends to be properly sourced with minimal failed fact checks.
2
Magazine; Forbes; Top U.S. General Promises Military Will Stay Out Of The Election Process; 28 August 2020;
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielcassady/2020/08/28/top-us-general-promises-military-will-stay-out-of-the-election-process/#51a982c17677; Forbes is a
bi-weekly American financial and business magazine, according to the MBFC website. Forbes is rated Right-Center biased based on story selection that tends to
favor the right and the political affiliation of its ownership and Mostly Factual in reporting, rather than High due to some misleading or false stories related to
climate science.
3
Online newspaper; The Washington Post; Trump’s assault on election integrity forces question: What would happen if he refused to accept a loss?; 22 July
2020; https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-assault-on-election-integrity-forces-question-what-would-happen-if-he-refused-to-accept-a-
loss/2020/07/22/d2477150-caae-11ea-b0e3-d55bda07d66a_story.html; The Washington Post is a major American daily newspaper published in Washington,
D.C., which has distinguished itself through its political reporting on the workings of the White House, Congress, and other aspects of the U.S. government. The
Washington Post is rated having a Left-Center biased based on editorial positions that moderately favors the Left and factually High due to the use of proper
sources and a reasonable fact check record, according the MBFC website.
4
Website; CNN; Pentagon chief on shaky ground with White House after breaking with Trump over protest response; 4 June 2020;
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/03/politics/esper-insurrection-act-protests/index.html; The Cable News Network (CNN) is an American basic cable, satellite
television channel, and website. CNN is rated Left Biased based on editorial positions that consistently favors the left, while straight news reporting falls Left-
Center through bias by omission, according to the MBFC website. They are also rated Mixed for factual reporting due to several failed fact checks by TV hosts.
However, news reporting on the website tends to be properly sourced with minimal failed fact checks.
5
Website; Politico; Esper risks being sidelined as White House floats replacements; 4 June 2020; https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/04/esper-white-
house-replacement-302174; Politico is a news and opinion website who’s coverage includes the U.S. Congress, lobbying, media, and the presidency. They also
have their own bi-monthly magazine that covers politics, news, and opinions. Politico is rated Least Biased based on balanced coverage of news stories and
High for factual reporting due to proper sourcing and a clean fact check record, according to the MBFC website.
6
Website; NBC News; White House has talked to VA secretary about taking Pentagon job if Trump fires Esper; 7 September 2020; https://www.nbcnews.com/
news/military/white-house-has-talked-va-secretary-about-taking-pentagon-job-n1239007; NBC News is the news division of the American NBC broadcast
television network. NBC News is rated Left-Center biased based on story selection and word choices that moderately favor the left and High for factual
reporting due to proper sourcing and a reasonable fact check record, according to the MBFC website.
7
Website; WAMU 88.5; Trump’s Attacks Put Military In ‘Presidential Campaign Minefield’; 10 September 2020; https://wamu.org/story/ 20/09/10/trump-vs-
the-military-the-presidents-mounting-attacks-on-the-top-brass/; WAMU 88.5 / American University Radio is a NPR public news/talk station in the Washington
D.C. metropolitan area featuring local news on education, transportation, and politics. The station is owned by American University.
8
Website; TPM; WH Defends Trump Attack On Pentagon Leaders Amid Uproar Over Fallen Soldier Remarks; 8 September 2020;
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/white-house-meadows-trump-pentagon-defense-contractors; TPM (Talking Points Memo) is a liberal web-based
political journalism website covering a broad range of politics, policy, and national news. TPM is rated Left Biased based on story selection and editorial
13
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
positions that frequently favor the left, according to the MBFC website. They are also rate Mostly Factual in reporting due to proper sourcing of information
and one failed fact check.
9
Website; Pentagon Force Protection Agency; FPCON: BRAVO; 29 August 2020; https://www.pfpa.mil/; FPCON Bravo applies when an increased or more
predictable threat of terrorist activity exists.
10
Online newspaper; The Washington Post; The Battle of Lafayette Square and the undermining of American democracy; 3 June 2020;
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-mark-milley-striding-behind-trump-through-lafayette-square-was-so-troubling/2020/06/02/81ef5388-a503-
11ea-b473-04905b1af82b_story.html; The Washington Post is a major American daily newspaper published in Washington, D.C., which has distinguished itself
through its political reporting on the workings of the White House, Congress, and other aspects of the U.S. government. The Washington Post is rated having a
Left-Center biased based on editorial positions that moderately favors the Left and factually High due to the use of proper sources and a reasonable fact check
record, according the Media Bias/Fact Check (MBFC) (https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/) website.
11
Website; CNN; Pentagon chief on shaky ground with White House after breaking with Trump over protest response; 4 June 2020;
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/03/politics/esper-insurrection-act-protests/index.html; The Cable News Network (CNN) is an American basic cable, satellite
television channel, and website. CNN is rated Left Biased based on editorial positions that consistently favors the left, while straight news reporting falls Left-
Center through bias by omission, according to the MBFC website. They are also rated Mixed for factual reporting due to several failed fact checks by TV hosts.
However, news reporting on the website tends to be properly sourced with minimal failed fact checks.
12
Online newspaper; The Washington Times; Trump to consider invoking 'insurrection' law after demonstrators attack Rand Paul outside W.H.; 28 August 2020;
The Washington Times is a daily newspaper concentrating on politics and news. The Washington Times has an overall Right-Center biased based on a very
strong right editorial bias, their straight news reporting has a much lower bias, according to the MBFC website. We are factually Mixed due to poor sourcing,
hold editorial positions that are contrary to scientific consensus, and failed numerous fact checks.
13
Website; The Hill; Trump decries DC protesters as 'thugs'; 28 August 2020; https://thehill.com/homenews/ administration/514229-trump-decries-dc-
protesters-as-thugs’; The Hill is an American political journalism newspaper and website that focuses on politics, policy, business, and international relations.
Their coverage includes the U.S. Congress, the presidency, and election campaigns. The Hill is rated Least Biased based on editorial positions that are currently
balanced and news reporting that is low biased, according to the MBFC website. They are rated Mostly Factual in reporting, rather than High, due to previous
opinion columns promoting unproven claims.
14
Website; PJ Media; Trump Again Threatens to Invoke Insurrection Law After Attacks on Supporters at White House; 29 August 2020;
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rick-moran/2020/08/29/trump-again-threatens-to-invoke-insurrection-law-after-attacks-on-supporters-at-white-
house-n863515; PJ Media (originally known as Pajamas Media) is an American online media company and operator of a conservative news, opinion, and
commentary collaborative blog. PJ Media is rated Questionable based on extreme right-wing bias, promotion of propaganda and conspiracies as well as
numerous failed fact checks, according to the MBFC website
15
Website; MEAWW; #InsurrectionAct trends as Trump supporters urge him to invoke infamous Act used in LA riots: 'Enough is enough'; 30 August 2020;
https://meaww.com/insurrection-act-trends-social-media-trump-supporters-demanding-invoke-act-others-slam-them; Media, Entertainment, Arts (MES)
Worldwide is an India-based media-tech company. A review of Twitter confirms #InsurrectionAct hashtag is widely used by left- and right-wing poseters.
16
Online magazine; Forbes; Does Trump Benefit From Civil Unrest? That’s Not What Polls Show; 30 August 2020; 11 September 2020;
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ andrewsolender/2020/08/30/does-trump-benefit-from-civil-unrest-thats-not-what-polls-show/; Forbes is a bi-weekly
American financial and business magazine. Forbes is rated Right-Center biased based on story selection that tends to favor the right and the political affiliation
of its ownership, according to the MBFC website. They are rated Mostly Factual in reporting, rather than High due to some misleading or false stories related to
climate science.
14
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
17
Twitter; Aaron Rupar; https://twitter.com/i/status/1298989807213797385; Kellyanne Conway makes a case that the killings of peaceful protesters will
benefit Trump politically.
18
Online newspaper; The Washington Post; Trump escalates rhetoric on unrest in cities, looking for a campaign advantage; 28 August 2020;
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-escalates-rhetoric-on-unrest-in-cities-looking-for-a-campaign-advantage/2020/08/28/c42beee4-e984-11ea-
a414-8422fa3e4116_story.html; The Washington Post is a major American daily newspaper published in Washington, D.C., which has distinguished itself
through its political reporting on the workings of the White House, Congress, and other aspects of the U.S. government. The Washington Post is rated having a
Left-Center biased based on editorial positions that moderately favors the Left and factually High due to the use of proper sources and a reasonable fact check
record, according the MBFC website.
19
Website; Townhall; President Trump in New Hampshire: I Might Invoke the Insurrection Act to Put Down These Leftist Thugs; 19 August 2020;
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2020/08/29/president-trump-in-new-hampshire-oh-i-might-invoke-the-insurrection-act-to-put-down-these-leftist-
thugs-n2575294; The Townhall is an American politically conservative website and print magazine pulls together political commentary and analysis from over
100 leading columnists and opinion leaders, research from 100 partner organizations, conservative talk-radio, and a community of millions of grassroots
conservatives. The Townhall is rated Right Biased and Questionable based on consistent one-sided reporting that always favors the right and numerous failed
fact checks, according to the MBFC website.
20
Website; Salon; Trump's signal to his followers is clear: Violence and chaos are my only hope; 31 August 2020; https://www.salon.com/2020/08/31/trumps-
signal-to-his-followers-is-clear-violence-and-chaos-are-my-only-hope/; Salon is a progressive/liberal news and opinion website that publishes articles on U.S.
politics, culture, and current events and has a left leaning editorial stance. Salon Left Biased based on story selection that strongly favors the left and
endorsements of political positions that are affiliated with the Democratic Party, according to the MBFC website. Salon is rated High for factual reporting due
to proper sourcing of information and adherence to the consensus of science.
21
Online magazine; Forbes; Homeland Security Secretary Says It May Deploy Federal Troops Into Portland After Protest Fatality; 30 August 2020;
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattperez/2020/08/30/homeland-security-secretary-says-it-may-deploy-federal-troops-into-portland-after-protest-fatality;
Forbes is a bi-weekly American financial and business magazine. Forbes is rated Right-Center biased based on story selection that tends to favor the right and
the political affiliation of its ownership, according to the MBFC website. They are rated Mostly Factual in reporting, rather than High due to some misleading or
false stories related to climate science.
22
Online newspaper; The Washington Post; ‘Great Patriots!’: Trump lavishes praise on supporters amid deadly clashes with social justice protesters; 30 August
2020; https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-biden-kenosha-portland/2020/08/30/42f50c50-ead5-11ea-ab4e-581edb849379_story.htm; The
Washington Post is a major American daily newspaper published in Washington, D.C., which has distinguished itself through its political reporting on the
workings of the White House, Congress, and other aspects of the U.S. government. The Washington Post is rated having a Left-Center biased based on editorial
positions that moderately favors the Left and factually High due to the use of proper sources and a reasonable fact check record, according the MBFC website.
23
Website; Media Matters for America; Roger Stone calls for Trump to seize total power if he loses the election; 11 September 2020;
https://www.mediamatters.org/roger-stone/roger-stone-calls-trump-seize-total-power-if-he-loses-election; Media Matters for America is a politically
progressive media watchdog in the United States. Media Matters is rated Left Biased based on selectively checking right-wing sources and High for factual
reporting due to proper sourcing of information and a clean fact check record, according to the MBFC website.
24
Website; The Hill; Trump says he would put down riots on election night 'very quickly'; 11 September 2020; https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/
516020-trump-says-he-would-put-down-riots-on-election-night-very-quickly; The Hill is an American political journalism newspaper and website that focuses
on politics, policy, business, and international relations. Their coverage includes the U.S. Congress, the presidency, and election campaigns. The Hill is rated
15
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Least Biased based on editorial positions that are currently balanced and news reporting that is low biased, according to the MBFC website. They are rated
Mostly Factual in reporting, rather than High, due to previous opinion columns promoting unproven claims.
25
Website; Politico; ‘We’ll put them down very quickly’: Trump threatens to quash election night riots; https://www.politico.com/news/ 2020/09/11/trump-
election-night-riots-412323; Politico is a news and opinion website who’s coverage includes the U.S. Congress, lobbying, media, and the presidency. They also
have their own bi-monthly magazine that covers politics, news, and opinions. Politico is rated Least Biased based on balanced coverage of news stories and High
for factual reporting due to proper sourcing and a clean fact check record, according to the MBFC website.
26
Website; TPM; Dem Sen Demands Caputo Resignation After He Reportedly Accused Scientists Of ‘Sedition’; 14 September 2020;
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/patty-murray-demand-caputo-resignation-scientist-sedition-accusation; TPM (Talking Points Memo) is a liberal web-
based political journalism website covering a broad range of politics, policy, and national news. TPM is rated Left Biased based on story selection and editorial
positions that frequently favor the left, according to the MBFC website. They are also rate Mostly Factual in reporting due to proper sourcing of information
and one failed fact check.
27
Online magazine; Forbes; Homeland Security Secretary Says It May Deploy Federal Troops Into Portland After Protest Fatality; 30 August 2020;
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattperez/2020/08/30/homeland-security-secretary-says-it-may-deploy-federal-troops-into-portland-after-protest-fatality;
Forbes is a bi-weekly American financial and business magazine. Forbes is rated Right-Center biased based on story selection that tends to favor the right and
the political affiliation of its ownership, according to the MBFC website. They are rated Mostly Factual in reporting, rather than High due to some misleading or
false stories related to climate science.
28
Online magazine; Forbes; Homeland Security Secretary Says It May Deploy Federal Troops Into Portland After Protest Fatality; 30 August 2020;
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattperez/2020/08/30/homeland-security-secretary-says-it-may-deploy-federal-troops-into-portland-after-protest-fatality;
Forbes is a bi-weekly American financial and business magazine. Forbes is rated Right-Center biased based on story selection that tends to favor the right and
the political affiliation of its ownership, according to the MBFC website. They are rated Mostly Factual in reporting, rather than High due to some misleading or
false stories related to climate science.
29
Online newspaper; The Washington Post; Police can’t control armed militias. Trump’s incitement makes it worse; 28 August 2020;
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/08/28/police-cant-control-armed-militias-trumps-incitement-makes-it-worse/; The Washington Post is a
major American daily newspaper published in Washington, D.C., which has distinguished itself through its political reporting on the workings of the White
House, Congress, and other aspects of the U.S. government. The Washington Post is rated having a Left-Center biased based on editorial positions that
moderately favors the Left and factually High due to the use of proper sources and a reasonable fact check record, according the MBFC website.
16
UNCLASSIFIED