TO: Vote Yes 4 Minneapolis Coalition

FROM: Katie Connolly, Senior Vice President

RE: Target Groups
DATE: January 12, 2021

Base Voters: 36% of voters are base voters

Base is defined as anyone who votes Yes on all of the ballots in the survey, including the initial ballot
without additional information. These are the core of the support and the oppositions messages have
little traction with them. The responses to the positive messages are strong overall, and they follow a
similar pattern the rest of the electorate in terms of the hierarchy of positive messages.
Demographically, they tend to be:

• Democrats: there are no Republicans in this group. Just over 70% identify as Democrats
and they over-index as “strong” Democrats
• Young: three quarters of this group are under the age of 50, almost 40% under the age of 35
• Self-ID heavily as liberals (the largest ideological block in Minneapolis) with a handful of
moderates and almost no conservatives.
• Marginally more female than male overall. When we look at voters under 50, women are
heavily concentrated in the base with just a handful in the off the table groups, and around
a third in the swing group.
• Racially diverse – the racial makeup of this group reflects the overall makeup of the city
o Though the sample size is small, Black voters are over-represented in the Swing
Group (see below). White voters are spread fairly evenly between the three groups.
• Tend to have a college degree or higher
• Households making $50k or less are over-represented
• Geographic spread tends to reflect the city, with a very small uptick in the University area

Swing Voters: 35% of voters are swing voters

This group is defined as anyone who votes Yes on at least one of the ballots, but not all of the
ballots (27% of the electorate) or is undecided on all of the ballots (8% of the electorate). They have
a marginally better response to the positive messages than the negative ones, but invoking the
uptick in violence does appear to resonate with them. By the same token, pointing out the funding
disparities also strikes a chord. Demographically, they tend to be:

• Female
o Especially women 50+ years old
• Black voters – just over half of the Black voters in our survey ended up in this group
• Tend to be over the age of 40, with a spike among seniors aged 65+
• Ideology skews moderate, with some liberals. Just a sprinkling of conservatives in this group.
• Voters without a college degree are over-represented
• More likely to live in South Minneapolis, downtown is under-represented

The table below shows the ballot among the swing group at different points in the survey.
• Initially, 12% vote Yes, 32% vote No and 56% of them are undecided.

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 • Informing them about the ballot moves a plurality to Yes, 45% vote Yes, 13% vote No, 42%
are undecided
• After hearing both opposition and support messages, 37% vote Yes, 14% vote No, 49% are
undecided

Ballot Progression
Ballot After Ballot After
Ballot without leaners Initial Ballot Informed Ballot Opposition Support
Messages Messages
Yes 12 45 20 37
No 32 13 29 14
Don’t know 56 42 51 48

Off the table: 29% of voters are off the table

This group is defined as anyone who votes No on every ballot in the survey. Our positive messages
have no traction at all with this group, but the negatives appear to stick. Demographically, they tend
to be:

• Middle aged voters 50-64 years old

• Male
o Especially men 50+ years old
o There is just a handful of women under the age of 50 in this group
• ID as Conservative – the small group of self-professed conservatives in our sample were
heavily concentrated in this group, while moderates were split fairly evenly between this and
the swing group.
• ID as Republicans
• Voters living in Downtown + Central MPLS
• Households are making $100k+ a year, while very few are making under $50k
• College/ non-college split reflects the overall MPLS population

Response to Messages

Opposition Messages by Groups

Off the
% Very Convincing Total Base Swing
Table
Q2. Minneapolis has seen a serious increase in violent crime this year and defunding
the police will make it worse. Homicides in Minneapolis are up 50 percent, more than
500 people have been shot and we've seen hundreds of car jackings and robberies.
People are traveling miles to buy groceries because crime is so bad downtown. They 38 7 32 79
don't feel safe walking their dogs, and they hear gun shots daily. At a time when we
urgently need to restore safety to our city, abolishing the police department is the
wrong move.
Q4. This push to defund the police is driven by a small group of activists who haven't
taken the time to plan what that would really mean for our city. The City Council
already cut $8 million from police funding. With everything going on, now is the wrong
27 5 28 56
time for even more dramatic change like eliminating the police department. It's too far,
too fast. Voting against this initiative will give us time to develop a common sense,
well thought out approach to the change Minneapolis needs.

Vote Yes 4 Minneapolis | 2

 Opposition Messages by Groups (Continued)
Off the
% Very Convincing Total Base Swing
Table
Q3. Minneapolis has a few bad cops but defunding the police doesn't punish them, it
punishes all of us. Most police officers work hard to help our community. With the
surge of violence in our city, it's critical that our Chief of Police gets the resources he
needs to ensure police can do the important work of keeping us safe. Instead, the 27 2 16 78
City Council just cut their funding by $8 million. We can't afford to drain more
resources from police, which is why every law enforcement organization in the city
opposes this initiative.

Supporters Messages by Groups

Off the
% Very Convincing Total Base Swing
Table
Q8. Minneapolis is locked in to spending 35% of its budget on policing because of a
decades-old law pushed by special interests and the police union. We spent $179
million this year on police officers, yet Minneapolis spends just $400,000 on programs
to prevent opioid addiction. This proposal will free up funding and enable the city to 37 71 32 3
be more responsive to our needs. It will allow us to invest more wisely in mental
health, substance abuse treatment, housing, employment, and other programs that
make our communities safer.
Q7. For decades, white and wealthy neighborhoods have been able to call police if
they need help, while Black neighborhoods are full of police who harass, abuse and
even kill people. Yet police often do not respond quickly to 9-1-1 calls from Black
residents, and they often escalate situations into violent confrontations. This proposal 33 60 29 1
will help ensure Black communities finally have the resources and well-funded
support services that white areas always had. Now is the time for Minneapolis to end
the era of police violence in Black neighborhoods.
Q6. In Minneapolis, we keep each other safe. We can take care of more people in our
city if we fund community-led programs that promote public safety instead of massive
spending on police who have failed to keep us safe. We should be investing in local
programs that are already demonstrating real, positive results -- such as mental 28 57 20 3
health counseling, housing and food assistance, free winter coat stations -- instead of
pouring taxpayer money into a police force with a long track record of violence and
harm.

Methodology: Benenson Strategy Groups conducted 540 telephone and online interviews from December 14-27,
2020. All respondents were registered voters in Minneapolis who are likely to vote in the 2021 Minneapolis general
election. The margin of error for the data set is ±4.3% at the 95% confidence interval level and it is higher among
subgroups.

Vote Yes 4 Minneapolis | 3