Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Economics
How people make decisions? Rational choice vs. real actors
2
Bounded rationality
Herbert Simon (1957)
3
Bounded rationality
as environmental rationality
4
Dealing with limitations
5
Technology
Example: Apps to coordinate
Situation
-- Problem: Natural disaster
-- Challenge: Coordination of volunteers
6
Technology
Example: Google Maps
Situation
-- Objective: To find the way to the destination
7
Technology
Example: Dating portals
Situation
-- Search for partners
-- Complexity: many people, limited capacity (e.g. time)
8
Dealing with limitations
9
Heuristics
Problem: complexity
Objective:
• to simplify decisions, especially under conditions of uncertainty. They
represent a process of substituting a difficult question with an easier
one (Kahneman, 2003).
Heuristics
• In their initial research, Tversky and Kahneman proposed three
heuristics—availability, representativeness, and anchoring and
adjustment. Subsequent work has identified many more.
Heuristics
https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/resources/mini-encyclopedia-of-be/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
Dhami (2016)
14
Heuristics
Tversky, A., and Kahneman, D. “Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics
and biases.” Science, vol. 185, no. 4157, pp. 1124-1131.
The availability heuristic
involves making decisions based upon how easy it is to bring something
to mind.
When you are trying to make a decision, you might quickly remember a
number of relevant examples. Since these are more readily available in
your memory, you will likely judge these outcomes as being more
common or frequently-occurring.
For example, if you are thinking of flying and suddenly think of a
number of recent airline accidents, you might feel like air travel is too
dangerous and decide to travel by car instead. Because those examples
of air disasters came to mind so easily, the availability heuristic leads
you to think that plane crashes are more common than they really are.
The representativeness heuristic
Representativeness is one of the major general purpose heuristics, along
with availability and affect. It is used when we judge the probability that an
object or event A belongs to class B by looking at the degree to which A
resembles B. When we do this, we neglect information about the general
probability of B occurring (its base rate) (Kahneman & Tversky, 1972).
Heuristic: The anchoring heuristic
8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1=
I five sec pls extimate the result of the
multiplication:
1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8 =
Heuristics
• Herd behaviour
• Mental accounting
• Affect heuristic
• Recognition heuristic
Heuristics: Herd behaviour
Homo economicus
Would enter into interactions if it were to his
advantage (e.g., missing information, reputation)
Would not go into interactions, because it is just
fashionable
Real people
Relatively easily influenced by statements and
actions of other people
22
Heuristics:
Herd
behaviour
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEhSk71gUCQ
Heuristics:
Herd
behaviour
Standing ovation
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ft7mwyiPyIo
Herd behaviour (Herding)
This effect is evident when people do what others are doing instead of using their own
information or making independent decisions.
The idea of herding has a long history in philosophy and crowd psychology.
relevant in the domain of finance, where it has been discussed in relation to the collective
irrationality of investors, including stock market bubbles (Banerjee, 1992). In other areas of
decision making, such as politics, science, and popular culture, herd behavior is sometimes
referred to as ‘information cascades’ (Bikhchandi et al., 1992). Herding behavior can be
increased by various factors, such as fear (e.g. Economou et al., 2018), uncertainty (e.g. Lin,
2018), or a shared identity of decision makers (e.g. Berger et al., 2018).
Banerjee, A. (1992). A simple model of herd behavior. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 797-817.
Berger, S., Feldhaus, C., & Ockenfels, A. (2018). A shared identity promotes herding in an information cascade game. Journal of the
Economic Science Association, 4(1), 63-72.
Bikhchandi, S., Hirschleifer, D., & Welch, I. (1992). A theory of fads, fashion, custom and cultural change as informational
cascades. Journal of Political Economy, 100, 992-1026.
Economou, F., Hassapis, C., & Philippas, N. (2018). Investors’ fear and herding in the stock market. Applied Economics, 50(34-35),
3654-3663.
Lin, M. C. (2018). The impact of aggregate uncertainty on herding in analysts’ stock recommendations. International Review of
Financial Analysis, 57, 90-105.
https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/resources/mini-encyclopedia-of-be
Heuristics
Herd behaviour (conformity experiment by Asch, 1951)
29
Heuristics: Mental accounting
Situation [Based on Thaler 1980]
You have 2 tickets for a football match 50 KM away from your home town. On the
day of the game there is a massive blizzard and the roads are pretty bad. Is it more
likely that you will go to the game if you have paid 30 € per ticket or if you would
have got the tickets for free?
Value equal in both situations. However, sunken costs often play a role in humans
(in contrast to Homo Oeconomicus). These are historical costs that should have
no bearing on decisions (rational choice), but people often perceive both
situations differently.
Individuals commit the sunk cost fallacy when they continue a behavior or
endeavor as a result of previously invested resources (time, money or effort)
(Arkes & Blumer, 1985). This fallacy, which is related to loss aversion and status
quo bias, can also be viewed as bias resulting from an ongoing commitment.
30
Fallacy
Wiki: A fallacy (also called sophism) is the use of invalid or otherwise
faulty reasoning, or "wrong moves"[1] in the construction of an argument.[2][3] A
fallacious argument may be deceptive by appearing to be better than it really is.
Some fallacies are committed intentionally
to manipulate or persuade by deception, while others are committed
unintentionally due to carelessness or ignorance. The soundness of legal
arguments depends on the context in which the arguments are made.[4]
• van Eemeren, Frans; Garssen, Bart; Meuffels, Bert (2009). Fallacies and Judgments of
Reasonablene Empirical Research Concerning the Pragma-Dialectical Discussion Rules. Dordrecht:
Springer. doi:10.1007/978-90-481-2614-9. ISBN 978-90-481-2613-2.
• ^ Jump up to:a b c Gensler, Harry J. (2010). The A to Z of Logic. Rowman & Littlefield.
p. 74. ISBN 9780810875968.
• ^ Woods, John (2004). "Who Cares About the Fallacies?". The Death of Argument. Applied Logic
Series. 32. pp. 3–23. doi:10.1007/978-1-4020-2712-3_1. ISBN 9789048167005.
• ^ Bustamente, Thomas; Dahlman, Christian, eds. (2015). Argument types and fallacies in legal
argumentation. Heidelberg: Springer International Publishing. p. x. ISBN 978-3-319-16147-1.
Heuristics: Mental accounting applications
Willingness to pay with credit cards> Willingness to pay in cash
Receiving service / good immediately, but actual payment later (hence not
immediately coded as "loss")
Many smaller payments hurt more than once the sum of these smaller
payments.
32
Heuristics: Mental accounting applications
Casino
Suppose a person is lucky and successful in the casino. Experimental evidence has
shown that gamblers deal differently with the gained money. They are more willing
to use it again in gambling.
33
Heuristics: Affect heuristic
34
Heuristics: affect heuristic
Consumer theory
Homo Oeconomicus: "I chose X after weighing all the pros and cons of
the relevant alternatives."
36
Heuristics: recognition heuristic
Idea:
If we recognize one of two objects and one does not recognize the other,
then we decide according to recognition heuristics for the recognized object.
„If one of two objects is recognized and the other is not, then infer that the
recognized object has the higher value with respect to the criterion.” (Goldberg und
Gigerenzer (2002).
37
Heuristics: recognition heuristic
Object A Object B
(unknown) (known)
If humans have only heard something about an object, they assign a higher value to
this object with regard to a criterion
38
Heuristics: recognition heuristic
Application example: Marketing
People have preference for products known to them
Advertising industry can specifically try to anchor the name of the product deep
in the memory of the population
39
Heuristics
https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/resources/mini-encyclopedia-of-be/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
Dhami (2016)
40
http://www.law.harvard.edu/programs/olin_center/papers/pdf/Sunstein_963.pdf
Fairness
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meiU6TxysCg
Thinking slow and fast
• The book summarizes research that
Kahneman conducted over decades, often
in collaboration with Amos Tversky.
• It covers all three phases of his career:
• his early days working on cognitive biases
(Heuristics),
• his work on prospect theory,
• and his later work on happiness.
1. section: Two modes of thought
The central thesis is a dichotomy between two modes of thought:
48
How do people think?
Explanatory approach: hypothetically dividing the human brain into two
systems (Stanovich and West 2000/2, Kahneman 2011)
System 1: emotional system
System 2: cognitive system
Dhami (2016: 1398): It is important to note that the two systems are purely fictitious
characters that provide a way of organizing our understanding of the brain. Indeed “there is
no part of the brain that either of the systems would call home” (Kahneman, 2011, p. 29).
49
How do people think?
50
How do people think?
51
Agenda
53
Overconfidence
Moore und Healy (2008) three categories of overconfidence:
overestimation, overplacement, overprecision
Overestimation
Individuals overestimate their own abilities / performance / chances of success.
Example: Individual participates in a quiz that includes 10 questions. She / he
believes to answer 5 questions correctly. In fact, only 3 questions are answered
correctly.
e.g. Students in exam
54
3. Overconfidence
Overplacement [=better-than-average]
This effect occurs when people think they are better (for example their
performance) than other people.
Example: "93% of car drivers believe that they are better drivers than the average."
Overprecision
Individuals value their own information as more accurate than they actually are. In
other words, people are too sure that they know the right answer.
Example: "How long is the Nile?" Individuals tend to be too sure to know the
correct answer
55
Overconfidence
Kahnemann
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyD
QFmA1SpU 57
Agenda
58
Knowledge Illusion
59
Lawson (2006: 1669)
https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/~rlawson/PDF_Files/L-M&C-2006.pdf
62
A B C D
New rating after the task
Knowledge Illusion
e.g. zippers, climate
change, etc.
Rozenblit and Keil (2002) have proposed
the following 3-step procedure (three questions) :
67
Knowledge illusion
Message: People live in an illusion. Many people believe that they have a
better understanding of how things work than they actually have.
68
Knowledge Illusion (WC)
We perceive the world as being greatly simplified and at the same time
believe to understand it quite well.
Picture left:
Illustration, what
we think we
know
https://www.buildinggreen.com/sites/default/files/live/images/StealthDiagram_from_scan.jpg
70
Knowledge Illusion (WC)
https://www.simplybathrooms.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Grohe-Rimless-Toilet.jpg
71
Knowledge Illusion
How can Knowledge Illusion be explained?
Knowledge conflation
= People have difficulty distinguishing between: i) what they know and ii) what
others know
In other words, by understanding others, we believe we understand it.
Why you feel you do not have much to say in your own lectures?
Have you ever had a feeling of discomfort in a presentation because the content
seems trivial to you and it seems valuable to even say it?
This is an example of mixing up your own knowledge and the knowledge of other
people.
72
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02h7f2T_6mA
https://people.umass.edu/aizen/index.html
Theory of planned behaviour
Book available
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1
.1.464.255&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Bruno Frey:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wteG9pjyLUQ
81
Journal of economic surveys
Do people act just because they expect a monetary gain? Do they work solely
because they are paid?
I claim that this is not so: people undertake many activities simply because they like them.
I claim even more: a higher monetary compensation crowds-out this inner motivation in
important circumstances. To offer higher pay then makes people less committed to their work,
and may reduce their performance.
Not Just for the Money develops an economic theory of human motivation which is at the
same time broader and, in relevant cases, contradictory to economics teaching.
Human motivation is not restricted to monetary incentives. In addition to the extrinsic
motivation induced from outside, intrinsic motivation is also crucially important.
Five basic propositions characterizing the relationship
between intrinsic and extrinsic motivation are advanced in
the book:
(1) Intrinsic motivation is of great importance for all economic activities. It is
inconceivable that people are motivated solely or even mainly by external
incentives.
(2) The use of monetary incentives crowds out intrinsic motivation under
identifiable and relevant conditions (Crowding-Out Effect).
(3) Other external interventions such as commands or regulations can drive out
intrinsic motivation.
(4) External interventions may enhance intrinsic motivation under some
conditions (Crowding-ln Effect).
(5) Changes in intrinsic motivations may spill over to areas not directly affected by
monetary incentives or regulations (SpillOver Effect).
Field Experiment: „Kindergarden“Gneezy/Rustichini 2000,
Journal of Legal Studies
Problem: Parents used to arrive late to collect their children, forcing a teacher to stay
after closing time.
Experiment: monetary fine introduced for late-coming parents.
Result: the number of late-coming parents increased significantly.
After the fine was removed no reduction occurred.
The authors argue that penalties are usually introduced into an incomplete contract, social or private.
They may change the information that agents have, and therefore the effect on behavior may be
opposite of that expected.
85
(Gneezy/Rustichini 2000, Journal of Legal Studies)
Lesson learned:
Depending on the situation, external interventions (monetary
incentives & regulation) can lead to a reduction in intrinsic
motivation.
87
Eating out
Money does not always work
Situation a
„You go to a restaurant and pay for the services you receive at the end
of the dinner.“
Situation b
“A friend invited you to a dinner. The food was really good. To express
your appreciation, you give the friend a reasonable amount of money
before you go. "
88
Regulation does not always work
Situation (University lectures: voluntary work)
„ Some particularly committed university lecturers teach more than the
prescribed workload. In contrast, some university lecturers teach less
than their actual compulsory workload. Legislators are tightening the
controls on all university lecturers. ”
What influence may the control have on the behavior of the particularly
committed university lecturers?
89
Theoretical Background
--Extrinsic/Intrinsic motivation
--Crowding Effects (short definition)
--Crowding Effects: Determinants
--Spill-Over Effects
90
Behavioural Motivations
Extrinsic and Intrinsic Motivation
92
Crowding Effects
Possible effects of
Support intrinsic motivation
external intervention (e.g. (Crowding-In Effect)
Monetary incentives) When the individual perceives
intervention as supportive
Not relevant for intrinsic
motivation
(Crowding-Neutral Effect)
Suppress intrinsic motivation
(Crowding-Out Effect)
e.g. If a person perceives the
intervention as control
93
Crowding Effects
Crowding-In Effect
95
Crowding Effects
Crowding-Out Effect
96
Psychological background
Perception of an intervention as controlling / supportive
97
Psychological background
Perception of an intervention as controlling / supportive
Two psychological processes: Impaired Self Determinantion and Self-Esteem
2. Impaired Self-Esteem
External intervention influences the feeling of whether one's own participation is
valued or one's own competence is valued.
Y N
e o
s
Increase Self-Esteem Reduce Self-Esteem
Perception: supportive Perception: control
(↑intrinsic motivation) (↓intrinsic motivation)
98
Theoretical Background
--Extrinsic/Intrinsic motivation
--Crowding Effects (short definition)
--Crowding Effects: Determinants
--Spill-Over Effects
99
Determinants of the Crowding Effects-Theory [1]
Personal relationships
The more personal the bond, the greater the importance of intrinsic
motivation.
Pure (impersonal) market transactions (e.g. supermarket, eBay): prices
relevant, intrinsic motivation irrelevant
Personal relationships become relevant outside of the pure (impersonal) price
system. (Here it can happen, for example, that external interventions undermine
the intrinsic motivation).
100
Determinants of the Crowding Effects-Theory[2]
Type of activity / task
101
Determinants of the Crowding Effects-Theory[3]
Equal treatment
The more equally individuals are treated, the more negatively are influenced
those individuals who are overly intrinsically motivated.
A feeling of lack of recognition of competence and commitment
Reduction of intrinsic motivation
102
Theoretical Background
--Extrinsic/Intrinsic motivation
--Crowding Effects (short definition)
--Crowding Effects: Determinants
--Spill-Over Effects
103
Spill-Over Effects
104
Application of the theoretical concepts
105
Application of Crowding Effects-Theory
1. blood donation
106
Application of Crowding Effects-Theory
1. blood donation
If altruistic considerations are the reason for donating blood, the following
effects can be expected in response to cash payments:
(1) motivation crowding out Suppression of intrinsic motivation
(2) Less motivation to donate blood if there is no pricing mechanism
What are the consequences?
(i) If prices are high enough, presumably enough blood will be donated even
without intrinsic motivation (price effect overcompensates crowding out
effect).
Problem: cost increase
107
Application of Crowding Effects-Theory
1. blood donation
108
Application of Crowding Effects-Theory
2. work motivation
111
Application of Crowding Effects-Theory
2. work motivation
112
Application of Crowding Effects-Theory
2. work motivation
113
Application of Crowding Effects-Theory
2. work motivation
114
Application of Crowding Effects-Theory
2. work motivation
115
Closing remarks
Relevance for regulator
Question: How should (monetary) incentives be designed to achieve a
goal?
Considering the intrinsic motivation effects (possibly unintended
effects)
116