Computers & Industrial

Engineering
Manuscript Draft

Manuscript Number: CAIE-D-20-01262

Title: Bottleneck shifting prediction of a remanufacturing system under

uncertain environment

Article Type: Research Paper

Keywords: Bottleneck shifting prediction, Complex network theory, Coupled

map lattice, Remanufacturing

Abstract: Bottleneck shifting prediction has been widely applied into

remanufacturing system for productivity improvement, and it would
straight influence the general presentation of the remanufacturing
system. However, predicting dynamic bottlenecks of remanufacturing
systems is complicated due to the disturbed environment (e.g., varied
processing time and uncertain processing routes). Since the combination
of complex network theory (CNT) and deterministic cellular automata (DCA)
was attested to be an effective approach to identify bottlenecks in
manufacturing plant, this research built a metamorphosis CNT conjunct
with coupled map lattice (CML) algorithm to predict the bottleneck
shifting phenomenon in remanufacturing. The CNT was applied to the
articulation of remanufacturing process, while the CML algorithm was
devoted to calculate the dynamic indicator of bottleneck. We took the
value added connecting rod as the research object to illustrate the
availability of the proposed method. As validated by this case, approach
this paper put forward is feasible to make accurate prognosis for
shifting bottlenecks in a remanufacturing system.
*Highlights (for review)

Highlights
 RJSN could simplify and clarify the modeling of the remanufacturing process
based on CNT, which expand the application range about CNT.
 The parameters in RJSN are selected to represent the features of the system.
 The proposed CML algorithm can effectively identify bottleneck remanufacturing
resources in the system with a high accuracy rate.
 The defined dynamic bottlenecks is visualized and the disturbances in the system
are the dominated contributor for this phenomenon.
*Manuscript
Click here to view linked References

Bottleneck shifting prediction of a remanufacturing system

under uncertain environment
Zheng Xue, Tao Li*, Shitong Peng
School of mechanical engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China
Abstract: Bottleneck shifting prediction has been widely applied into remanufacturing system
for productivity improvement, and it would straight influence the general presentation of the
remanufacturing system. However, predicting dynamic bottlenecks of remanufacturing
systems is complicated due to the disturbed environment (e.g., varied processing time and
uncertain processing routes). Since the combination of complex network theory (CNT) and
deterministic cellular automata (DCA) was attested to be an effective approach to identify
bottlenecks in manufacturing plant, this research built a metamorphosis CNT conjunct with
coupled map lattice (CML) algorithm to predict the bottleneck shifting phenomenon in
remanufacturing. The CNT was applied to the articulation of remanufacturing process, while
the CML algorithm was devoted to calculate the dynamic indicator of bottleneck. We took the
value added connecting rod as the research object to illustrate the availability of the proposed
method. As validated by this case, approach this paper put forward is feasible to make
accurate prognosis for shifting bottlenecks in a remanufacturing system.
Keywords: Bottleneck shifting prediction, Complex network theory, Coupled map lattice,
Remanufacturing
1. Introduction
Remanufacturing has been a growing industry with notable potentials and extensively
regarded as an excellent end-of-life (EOL) alternative to extending the replacement cycle for
products (Lingling Li, Li, Tang, & Du, 2017). Most of the scrapped products are
remanufactured using a generic process as shown in Fig.1.

Retired parts Disassemble Rinse Inspection

Scrap disposition

Inspection Remanufacturing process Remanufacturing design

New parts Reassemble Inspection Package

Fig.1. The general remanufacturing process

Remanufacturing enterprises take the recycled parts as raw materials, which results in
high intrinsic uncertainty of the remanufacturing system (Peng et al., 2019). Cores required
by a remanufacturer experienced dynamic processing conditions during their active time
(Teunter & Flapper, 2011). Consequently, a batch of decommissioned parts usually has
various damage degrees and types. The remanufacturing environment is characterized by the
stochastic returns and quality variations(Guide & Srivastava, 1997). (Aras, Boyaci, & Verter,
2004) posed an approach for evaluating the effect of quality-based categorization of recycled
1
products. In addition to possible disturbances mentioned above, uncertainties in the
remanufacturing process, such as machining time (Arriaza, Kim, Lee, & Suhaimi, 2017) and
reprocessing routes(Liao, Shi, Liu, Shen, & Deng, 2019), complicate the bottleneck
identification in the remanufacturing system.
Bottleneck detection plays an important role in production management. The difficulty
*Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: lt_dlut@163.com, litao@dlut.edu.cn (T.Li).
of identifying bottlenecks is further magnified that the manufacturing system are inherently
unstable. A production system may have a dominant bottleneck or it may have instantaneous
bottlenecks that keep drifting. Different from traditional manufacturing, remanufacturing
systems have a far greater degree of uncertainty. (Lin Li, 2009)proposed a new data-driven
method to detect throughput bottlenecks in complex manufacturing systems, opening up
possibilities for developing a unified method for real-time production performance
monitoring and bottleneck detection. (Huang, Wang, Ren, Zhong, & Jiang, 2019)presented a
future bottleneck-based dispatching method for throughput improvement, which by capturing
and updating the real-time data related to the bottleneck in the job shop. (Chang, Ni,
Bandyopadhyay, Biller, & Xiao, 2007)aimed at using an online monitoring system to
feedback real-time production data of manufacturing companies to identify bottlenecks and
achieve balance in the assembly line in the versatile manufacturing environment and system.
(Bangalore & Tjernberg, 2015)used an artificial neural network's condition monitoring
method to predict the failure mode of the gearbox bearing, the severely damaged part of the
bearing can be predicted in advance to prevent the wind turbine from stopping again by this
mean. (Lin Li, Chang, Xiao, & Ambani, 2011)proposed a prediction method for throughput
bottlenecks on the production line based on an autoregressive moving average (ARMA)
model, which accurately predicted the bottlenecks of the system and improved the efficiency
of the enterprise. Present bottleneck detection problems primarily concentrate on typical
manufacturing, devoid of peculiar disturbances and processing specification of
remanufacturing. Therefore, efficient methods are required for identifying dynamic
bottlenecks in the remanufacturing system.
For a specific worn component, it usually has several remanufacturing routes on account
of different damage types and degree. In addition, one machine is permitted to process
multiple components simultaneously in the remanufacturing system and operations can be
managed on parallel machines, which constitute a representative flexible manufacturing
system (FMS). Since FMS could be recognized as a discrete event system, the complex
network theory (CNT), as a graphical method and interdisciplinary nature, can be an efficient
approach to solve the modeling and analysis of the remanufacturing system. CNT has been
extensively applied in numerous complex systems, e.g. social network (P. P. Zhang et al.,
2006), biological network (Eisenberg & Levanon, 2003) , traffic and transportation network
(Chowell, Hyman, Eubank, & Castillo-Chavez, 2003; De Montis, Barthélemy, Chessa, &
Vespignani, 2007; Wu, Gao, Sun, & Huang, 2006) , manufacturing network (Chao & Chen,
2001; Felfernig, Friedrich, & Jannach, 2001; Gao, Rong, & Yue, 2018; Geng et al., 2018;
Leng & Jiang, 2019; J. Li, Jiao, & Tang, 2019; Zhong et al., 2018; Zhuang, Huang, Chen, &
Qin, 2019) , financial network (Jackson & Wolinsky, 1996) . Nonetheless, few studies have
addressed the shifting bottleneck prediction in remanufacturing. Due to its excellent
spatiotemporal chaotic characteristics, the coupled map lattice (CML) algorithm is combined
with the complex network theory to solve the bottleneck identification problem in the job
2
shop. Compared with other algorithms(Tang, 2019; R. Zhang & Wu, 2012), CML algorithm
enables more accurate identification and is appropriate for the acquisition and calculation of
real-time data.
The rest of this article is organized as follows. Section 2 introduces the construction of
complicated workshop network model and the extraction of its characteristics. Section 2
presents the propagation characteristics of uncertainty factors and the intensity of disturbance
factors. Section 4 gives an introduction to the coupled map lattice algorithm for shifting
bottleneck prediction in remanufacturing system. Section 5 provides an industrial case study
to illustrate the implementation of the method and validate its practicability. Conclusions and
future works for this research are drawn in Section 6.

2. Job shop network model

2.1 Description of the network model
A total of k types of p parts were supposed to be processed on m machines in the
production workshop. According to the damage degree and types of returns, conjunct with
machine condition and manufacturing plan sheet, remanufacturers carry out processing and
scheduling. We abstract the workstations (e.g., machines) into nodes, and establish a complex
network model for a remanufacturing system. In this way, the process from returns to
remanufactured products can be mapped into a production workshop network mapping
diagram. A brief description of the mapping process is shown in Fig.2.

Damage degree D1 D2

1 5 8

Process P1 P2 P3 P4 2 6 9

3 4 7

Workstation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Fig. 2. Multi-task directed weighted network model

According to the features of the remanufacturing job shop network (RJSN), this
contribution presents the data structure of the RJSN by means of consolidated set. RJSN
structure always transforms during the dynamic variation of the overall system. In a complex
network, important parameters can decide the chief characters of each node(Beyza,
Garcia-Paricio, & Yusta, 2019; Gao et al., 2018). The parameters in the network model are
defined as:
G   R, E , M  td  , ij , Qr  (1)

where R represents the resource node (each process); R=1,2,…，m. E means the set of
connected edges (possible process routes and material-flow paths); M(td) indicates the
relationship between various orders in the production workshop and the workstations; ωij
denotes the weight value of the edge and the time load of the manufacturing task of node i
occupying the manufacturing resources of node j; Qr represents the ability of node r to
provide continuous uninterrupted service during the rated working time; Qr can be described
by Eqs. (2).
3
 (T1  T2  T3 )
Qr  1  100% (2)
Tr
where T1, T2, and T3 represent the service lost time caused by a machine failure on the
equipment r, uncertain damage degree of the returns, and unqualified processing technology
requirements, respectively. Tr is the fixed working time of device r during one business day.

2.2 Extraction of network feature attributes

The uncertain factors in RJSN: the bottleneck is collaboratively influenced by different
remanufacturing parameters, such as operation time, reprocessing routes, material status, and
remanufacturing energy consumption. The methodology should merge the uncertain factors in
RJSN and support the complicated nonlinear mappings between inputs and outputs to make
an accurate prediction.
Bottleneck index: Bottleneck degree has a guiding role for a process to become a
bottleneck. It is the basis for judging whether the process is a bottleneck, a non-bottleneck, a
primary bottleneck or a secondary bottleneck.
The function of a node in the RJSN is not only affected by the node itself, but also the
neighbor nodes. This paper extracts the following parameters to identify bottleneck to reflect
the overall structure, performance and operating conditions in the RJSN. The specific
definitions include:
(1) Degree of nodes
The degree of entry refers the number of upstream nodes that are connected to a certain
node in the RJSN, as shown in Eq. (3):
Drin  a
j ( i )
ij (3)

in
Where Dr represents the ingress of the connection node r, aij is the number of edges
between the node r and the upstream node of the point.
The output degree indicates the number of downstream nodes among the nodes
connected to a certain node in the RJSN, it can be expressed by Eq. (4) as below:
Drout  a
j ( i )
ij (4)

out
Where Dr means the output degree of the connection node r, aij is the number of edges
between the node r and the downstream node of the point.
The total degree of each node in the RJSN is the sum of the in-degree value and the
out-degree value of the node, as presented in Eq. (5):

D(r )  Drin  Drout (5)

The degree of the connection node has important application value in project engineering
practice. Greater D(r) implies more the connection node is completed or participated in the
processing job in the entire job-shop, and the higher the utilization rate of the connection
node.
(2) Cluster coefficient
The estimation of the cluster coefficient received intensive attention. This paper adopted
the concept of clustering measure defined by Watts and Strogatz(Watts & Strogatz, 1998). We
4
assumed that the degree value of a connection point r is L. In this field, the number of nodes
that can be connected to the connection point r is at most L(L-1)/2. If the actual number of
connections in his neighborhood (that is, the expected value of the number of connections) is
E(r), then the expression of the clustering coefficient of node r Cr(N) is:
2 E (r )
Cr ( N )  (6)
kr2 ( N )
Then, Eq.(7) outlined the clustering coefficient of the job shop network model as the
arithmetic mean of the cluster coefficient values of all connection nodes.
N
C ( N )   Cr ( N ) / N (7)
r 1

(3) Node load value

The node load value denotes the ratio of the processing time of all parts to be processed
in the system to the rated processing time in the r process, as shown in Eq. (8):
k Nf

q  A
i 1
i
j 1
T
ijr ijr

Wr  (8)
Tr Qr
Where k is the number of types of all workpieces, qi indicates the total number of
workpieces Ji, Aijr refers the coefficient of the processing machine. If the jth process of
workpiece Ji completes the task on process r, Aijr = 1, otherwise Aijr = 0, Tijr is the standard
processing time for the jth process of the ith workpiece Ji in the process r.
3. Analysis of uncertain factors

3.1 Characteristics of uncertainty propagation

The remanufacturing system is characterized by a far greater degree of disturbance than
conventional manufacturing, due to factors like uncertain qualities of returns and probabilistic
routes. At present, most researches applied stochastic optimization, fuzzy theory or robustness
into uncertainty in manufacturing system. This paper utilized probability theory and
mathematical statistics methods to describe the characteristics of uncertain factors and the
intensity of disturbances of various elements.

3.2 Intensity of disturbance

The disturbance intensity of the uncertain elements is mainly dominant by the value of
the impact factor (IF), which denotes the extent of influence on the critical routings.
According to the correlation between the processes, the uncertainty intension is divided into
three types, i.e., strongly correlated disturbance, weakly correlated disturbance, and
uncorrelated disturbance.
(1) uncorrelated disturbance
Non-relevant disturbance means that the uncertain factors have not affected the key
processes on the process route, and have no effect on the overall processing progress in the
system. Assuming that an uncertainty factor fi is an unrelated perturbation element, as
presented in Eqs. (9)-(10):

Ri'  Ri P(C | fi , Ri )  P(C | Ri ) (9)

Ri  T  { fi } (10)
Where fi means the processing schedule characteristic of the connection point of an
5
uncertain factor, T refers the set of processing node progress information of the entire
job-shop network model, and P(*) represents the joint probability of the progress
characteristic value of each processing step. C indicates the progress feature of processing
nodes that does not belong to Ri, and Ri' is a subset of Ri.
(2) strongly correlated disturbance
The existence of C, fi, and Li satisfies P(fi, Li)> 0. If fi directly affects Li and Li depends
on the existence of fi, then fi is a strongly correlated disturbance factor. It can be expressed as:
P(C | fi , Ri )  P(C | Ri ) (11)
Strongly correlated disturbance refers that uncertain factors directly affect the key processes
on the process route, and have a greater impact on the overall processing progress of the
system.
(3) weakly correlated disturbance
Weakly correlated disturbance indicates that uncertain factors may affect key processes
on the process route, and may affect the overall processing progress of the system, or it may
not exist.
The existence of C, fi, and Li' satisfies P(fi, Li)> 0. fi directly affects Li' and Li' depends on
the existence of fi, then fi, is a weakly correlated disturbance factor, as presented in Eq.(12):
P (C | f i , Ri )  P (C | Ri )
(12)
L'i  Li，P (C | f i , Ri )  P (C | C | Ri' )
4. Bottleneck shifting prediction based on coupled map lattice (CML) algorithm

4.1 Network model of job-shop based on coupled map lattice

To obtain the bottleneck degree of each node of the job-shop network model, it is
particularly important to set the function to reflect the influence of the entire system.
Therefore, to establish a coupled map lattice algorithm model with N nodes. Firstly, we
defined the initial state bottleneck value of the node. The value is the ratio of the preparation
time of the part processed in this procedure to the standard time of the part processed in this
procedure, which is represented by the symbol xc (t) as follows:
tp
xc (t )  (13)
ts
This model consists of three parts including:
(1) The dynamic behavior of the network model node itself, as shown in Eq. (14):
F1 ( xr (t  1))  (1  1  2 ) f ( xr (t )) (14)
Where xr(t) represents the bottleneck value of the connection point r at time t, the network
topology coupling coefficient μ1 and the weighted distribution load coupling coefficient μ2
respectively indicate the difference in the network coupling relationship when there are
uncertain factors loaded. The value of μ2 is determined by the degree of influence of uncertain
factors on the key process paths in parts processing. The values of μ1 and μ2 are in the range
of 0 to 1 and μ1 +μ2 <1. f(x) is a non-linear function. It represents that each connection in the
network model can be regarded as a chaotic dynamic system. A classic model is selected here:
Logistics map f(x)=βx(x-1). This model is consistent with discrete systems and can
accurately analyze the behavior of complex systems such as chaos and fractals in
remanufacturing systems.
(2) The dynamic behavior of network topology propagation in an interference-free
environment.
6
Few uncertain factors affect the overall processing progress of the system during the
remanufacturing process. The entire network model is in a relatively stable state, as presented
in Eq. (15):
m
F2 ( xr (t  1))  1 
j 1, j  i
aij f ( xr (t )) / Dr (15)

(3) Dynamics of network topology propagation in uncertain environments.

During the entire remanufacturing process, the RJSN has influential factors that cause
the overall processing to be blocked, such as the damage degree of scrapped products
and the variable routings from different kinds of workblank. It can be expressed as:
m
F3 ( xr (t  1))  2 
j 1, j  i
wij f ( xr (t )) / Wr (16)

In summary, the node is disturbed by uncertain factors at time t. The expression of

the node bottleneck value at time t+1 is:
m m
xr (t  1)  (1  1  2 ) f ( xr (t ))  1 
j 1, j  i
aij f ( xr (t )) / Dr  2 
j 1, j  i
wij f ( xr (t )) / Wr (17)

4.2 Construction of bottleneck discrimination mechanism

The bottleneck index directly indicates the magnitude of the bottleneck degree of the
RJSN. Due to the succession of stochastic conditions, the bottlenecks are dynamic .
Combined with the significant parameters mentioned above, the dynamic indicator is
calculated to identify bottlenecks in an explicit status even there are multiple bottlenecks.
According to the inherent characteristics of the bottleneck, we regard the standard value
λ as the reference value of the bottleneck index. Generally, industrial experts determine the
value of λ by deliberating on the specific conditions of the remanufacturing system. The
judgment formula of the bottleneck unit set and non-bottleneck unit set is as follows:
t
RBN  r | X r (t )   , r  R
(18)
t
RnBN  r | 0  X r (t )   , r  R
t t
Where RBN is the set of time bottleneck units in the job-shop, and RnBN is the set of

non-time bottleneck units in the shop, λ represents the criterion of time bottleneck process. 0.5
≤λ≤1 The value of λ should not be too small, otherwise, it will cause misjudgment and
mistake the non-bottleneck process as the bottleneck process. In addition, the bottleneck
process will be missed if the value of λ is too large.

4.3 Coupled map lattice algorithm for bottleneck prediction in remanufacturing system
Since the processing sequence incarnated in RJSN is fundamentally based on CNT, the
CML algorithm has been applied into RJSN-based bottleneck shifting prediction problems
due to excellent spatiotemporal chaos characteristics. The underlying notion is to extract the
parameters related to the bottleneck. CML algorithm is used to simulate this model and
calculate the bottleneck index of each process at each moment. The algorithm steps are as
follows:
Step 1: Building a complex network model for the remanufacturing system
Step 2: Calculate the node degree value D(r) of each process
Step 3: Calculate the node load value W(r) of each process
7
Step 4: Determine the values of μ1 and μ2
Step 5: Calculate the node bottleneck value of each process
Step 6: Determine the node time bottleneck status according to the bottleneck judgment
standard value λ

5. Case Study

5.1 Collection of basic information

We made a survey at SINOTRUK, Jinan Fuqiang Power Corp.Ltd. for the period from
October 2019 to January 2020. This remanufacturing company mainly engages in the highly
valuable components such as cylinder block, cylinder head, connecting rod and gearbox. The
investigated connecting rod (Fig. 3) pertains to the WD615-87 Diesel Engine. Connecting rod
is an important part of automobile engine, which necessitates the remanufacturing for
reducing business costs and green environmental protection.

Fig.3. The investigated connecting rod

(1) Reprocessing route of connecting rod
The remanufacturing process of the connecting rod generally involves honing, boring,
cleaning, milling etc. Details on the remanufacturing process of recyclable connecting rods
are presented in Fig. 4. The severely damaged returns (repairable) share the operations from 0
to 9, while the slightly damaged parts operate from 0 to 7. If the returns meet technical
requirements, these parts can reused (10) directly without recovery treatment. And the
cracked or severely scratched connecting rods are directly for scrapped disposal (11).

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

11

10

0.inspection 1.honing 2.press bushing 3.assemble bushing 4.milling 5.boring

6.straight 7.cleaning 8.eletro-cleaning 9.brush planting 10.reuse 11.scrapped disposal

Fig.4. Remanufacturing processes of the connecting rod

8
(2) Data collection
The standard time ts, preparation time tp for processing parts processed and service
capability at different workstations are listed in Table 1.
Table 1
Standard processing time, preparation time and service capability of each process
standard preparation time
service
serial processing time for processing
process capability of
number for machined parts parts
nodes
ts/min tp/min
inspection 0 0.5 0.16 0.98
honing 1 2 0.61 0.95
press bushing 2 1 0.34 0.97
assemble bushing 3 1 0.33 0.97
milling 4 1 0.35 0.94
boring 5 2 0.69 0.96
straight 6 0.1 0.04 0.99
cleaning 7 1 0.33 0.99
electro-cleaning 8 0.5 0.15 0.99
brush plating 9 2 0.66 0.98
reuse 10 0.1 0.36 0.98
scrap disposal 11 0.1 0.33 0.99

5.2 Network model of production workshop

According to the reprocessing routes of the connecting rod and CNT, we apply graphical
tool to simulate the network model of the connecting rod remanufacturing workshop. As
shown in Fig. 5, we abstract the processes into nodes in the complex network. For instance,
the node “0” is corresponding to inspection (0) in Fig.4.
0
1
10
2

11
4

8 7

Fig.5. Network model of the connecting rod remanufacturing system

The CML algorithm has been applied to predicting the shifting bottlenecks in this

9
industrial case. The model was simulated by Pajek software and Matlab 2018 software. The
bottleneck index of each node during various periods was calculated and the total simulation
time is 8 hours (one working day).
In the actual remanufacturing process, inspection, reuse of parts, and disposal of
scrapped products are impossible to become bottlenecks in the system. Therefore, these three
processes are not recognized as research objects. Table 2 shows the value of bottleneck index
of each process under a non –interference environment.
Table 2
Bottleneck value of each process in a non-interference environment
Bottleneck index
process
1h 2h 3h 4h 5h 6h 7h 8h
honing 0.6686 0.6654 0.6631 0.6614 0.6602 0.6592 0.6586 0.6581
p-bushing 0.6713 0.6686 0.6665 0.6648 0.6634 0.6623 0.6614 0.6607
a-bushing 0.6848 0.6874 0.6900 0.6923 0.6945 0.6962 0.6977 0.6989
milling 0.6810 0.6816 0.6822 0.6828 0.6833 0.6838 0.6843 0.6847
boring 0.6775 0.6766 0.6758 0.6751 0.6745 0.6739 0.6733 0.6728
straighten 0.6743 0.6723 0.6706 0.6692 0.6680 0.6669 0.6660 0.6651
cleaning 0.7088 0.7275 0.7379 0.7409 0.7416 0.7417 0.7417 0.7418
e-cleaning 0.6660 0.6626 0.6603 0.6588 0.6578 0.6571 0.6566 0.6563
b-plating 0.6933 0.7014 0.7089 0.7145 0.7178 0.7196 0.7205 0.7209
Note: p-bushing: press bushing; a-bushing: assemble bushing; e-cleaning: electro-cleaning

The bottleneck value of each process in Table 3 is in the range of (0.6, 1). The system
tends to be stable in a non-interference environment. The bottleneck process is always stable
on the cleaning process, and no bottleneck drift occurs. Table 3 shows the bottleneck value of
each process in the interference environment.
Table 3
Time bottleneck value of each process under uncertain environment
Bottleneck index
process
1h 2h 3h 4h 5h 6h 7h 8h
honing 0.8476 0.9578 0.8506 0.9333 0.7536 0.8297 0.8548 0.8286
p-bushing 0.8878 0.5633 0.6160 0.8229 0.9608 0.9603 0.4446 0.9482
a-bushing 0.2855 0.0787 0.6331 0.8709 0.6561 0.5660 0.2421 0.0940
milling 0.6993 0.3797 0.6584 0.1112 0.2721 0.5050 0.7218 0.7328
boring 0.9148 0.9444 0.9512 0.8244 0.0942 0.3718 0.2785 0.7970
straighten 0.3040 0.5355 0.1453 0.1228 0.8790 0.9286 0.4802 0.3925
cleaning 0.0364 0.4472 0.0499 0.5694 0.5866 0.2563 0.0542 0.9175
e-cleaning 0.8706 0.1852 0.5329 0.9769 0.5230 0.5875 0.9092 0.8443
b-plating 0.2258 0.8110 0.9057 0.9814 0.9159 0.6467 0.8283 0.3206
Note: p-bushing: press bushing; a-bushing: assemble bushing; e-cleaning: electro-cleaning

5.3 Validation of arena-based remanufacturing workshop simulation model under uncertainty

The Arena software is used to simulate the actual situation of the connecting rod
10
remanufacturing process. The simulation queue length of each process is used to correspond
to the bottleneck degree in the system. Therefore, longer waiting time of the parts to be
processed and larger number of waiting queue will cause greater the probability that it will
become a bottleneck. The simulation results are shown in Table 4. At the honing station, the
waiting time for parts was 38.26 min, and the average number of parts waiting was 19.72. At
the press bushing phase, the waiting time for parts was 28.82 min, and the average number of
parts waiting was 12.64. This suggests that the honing process and the pressure bushing
process are likely to become bottleneck processes. The results are highly consistent with the
prediction results of the coupled map lattice algorithm, which verifies the effectiveness of the
method.
Table 4
simulation results of Arena
process waiting time/min number of waiting parts
honing 38.26 19.72
press bushing 28.82 12.64
electro-cleaning 4.55 9.47
brush plating 4.51 9.38
boring 1.04 2.03
5.4 Analysis of data
This paper analysed the data obtained by comparing with the floating of the specific
bottleneck index on specific stations during the various periods. Meanwhile, we devote to
visualizing the defined shifting bottleneck by contrasting the bottleneck degree of different
stations at the same time.
The fluctuation of bottleneck index is presented in Fig. 6. The bottleneck degree of
honing is in the range of (0.7, 1) and the average is 0.86, which is on a higher level than other
stations. Press bushing ranks in the second place that its range is between 0.4 and 1 and the
mean value is 0.78. Consequently, the honing phase and the press bushing phase tend to
become the bottleneck station.
1.00 1.0

0.9
0.95
0.8

0.7
Bottleneck index

0.90
Bottleneck index

0.6

0.85 0.5

0.4
0.80
0.3

0.2
0.75
0.1

0.70 0.0
0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8
time/h time/h

(a) honing (b)press bushing

11
 1.0 1.0

0.9 0.9

0.8 0.8

0.7 0.7

Bottleneck index
Bottleneck index

0.6 0.6

0.5 0.5

0.4 0.4

0.3 0.3

0.2 0.2

0.1 0.1

0.0 0.0
0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8
time/h time/h

(c) electro-cleaning (d) brush planting

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7
Bottleneck index

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0
0 2 4 6 8
time/h

(e) boring
Fig.6. Fluctuation of bottleneck index of various processes
After considering the uncertain factors in the remanufacturing process of the connecting
rod, the bottleneck value of each process has changed significantly. The bottleneck process
changes constantly, resulting in the phenomenon of bottleneck drift. As shown in Fig.7, the
primary and secondary bottlenecks vary continuously, and the bottleneck process is boring at
the beginning of the processing stage. As the process progresses, the bottleneck process is
converted to honing, electro-cleaning, brush plating, and pressing the bushing.

12
 press bushing

bottleneck process brush planting

eletro-cleaning

honing

boring

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
time/h

Fig.7. Visualization of bottleneck shifting

6. Conclusion
In this paper, we built a RJSN for the connecting rod remanufacturing based on CNT.
Differentiable symbols in complex network are utilized to describe various stations in the job
shop. Moreover, CNT-based model essentially reflects the actual conditions in the
remanufacturing system. In the RJSN, indispensable parameters are selected to represent the
features of the system. Apart from that, the CML algorithm was adopted to predict dynamic
bottlenecks in remanufacturing under uncertain environment. The industrial case has further
demonstrated the implementation of the proposed method about bottleneck detection.
Furthermore, the main bottleneck and all the secondly bottleneck can be determined in a high
accurate rate.
This study only considered the uncertainty of reprocessing routes and damage degree of
returns. However, disturbances in the remanufacturing are multi-variant. Future work will
focus on more uncertain factors in the remanufacturing system. Based on the method
proposed by this paper, optimizing production scheduling and plant-level bottleneck detection
should be explored in the future.
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