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Jessica L. Blois et al.
Science 341, 499 (2013);
DOI: 10.1126/science.1237184
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SPECIALSECTION
followed by the establishment, sometimes for hun-
REVIEW dreds of thousands of years or longer, of assem-
blages dominated by ecological generalists with
Climate Change and the Past, Present, broad environmental ranges. The catastrophic
Permo-Triassic (PT) extinction (Fig. 1) demonstrates
this phenomenon: Rapid warming and ocean acid-
and Future of Biotic Interactions ification probably caused the extinction of a large
proportion of marine (12) and terrestrial (16) taxa,
Jessica L. Blois,1* Phoebe L. Zarnetske,2 Matthew C. Fitzpatrick,3 Seth Finnegan4 and in both realms post-extinction communities
were dominated by ecological generalists (17, 18).
Biotic interactions drive key ecological and evolutionary processes and mediate ecosystem responses Similarly, specialized plant-insect associations re-
to climate change. The direction, frequency, and intensity of biotic interactions can in turn be altered by covered much more slowly after the end-Cretaceous
climate change. Understanding the complex interplay between climate and biotic interactions is thus mass extinction (Fig. 1) and associated climatic
essential for fully anticipating how ecosystems will respond to the fast rates of current warming, which changes (19) than did generalist associations (20).
are unprecedented since the end of the last glacial period. We highlight episodes of climate change Mass extinction events may continue to affect
that have disrupted ecosystems and trophic interactions over time scales ranging from years to millennia the structure of biotic interactions long after eco-
by changing species’ relative abundances and geographic ranges, causing extinctions, and creating systems have recovered to pre-extinction diversity
transient and novel communities dominated by generalist species and interactions. These patterns levels. In the case of the PT extinction, the ecosys-
emerge repeatedly across disparate temporal and spatial scales, suggesting the possibility of similar tems that arose after the Early Triassic recovery
underlying processes. Based on these findings, we identify knowledge gaps and fruitful areas for research interval show evidence of increased complexity
that will further our understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystems. relative to their pre-extinction analogs (16, 21).
For example, in the terrestrial realm some verte-
limate change has occurred repeatedly in broad terms—namely, as the influence of indivi- brate groups maintained their pre-extinction func-
A 2.0
P−Tr
Extinction
Origination
L. Dev
L. Ord
1.5
Tr−J
K−Pg
Cool
Rate
1.0
0.5
0.0 Warm
B Other
Bivalvia
Brachiopoda
Cephalopoda
Proportional Genus Diversity
Conodonta
Crinoidea
Demospongea
Echinoidea
Gastropoda
Graptolithina
Gymnolaemata
Malacostraca
Ostracoda
Rugosa
Scleractinia
Stenolaemata
Stromatoporoidea
O S D C P T J K Pg Ng
Tabulata
400 300 200 100 0 Trilobita
Millions of years before present
Fig. 1. Macroevolutionary rates and changes in the proportional diversity heavier d18O values (86). The “Big Five” mass extinctions are indicated (L. Ord, Late
of fossil marine invertebrate taxa through time and their relationship to Ordovician; L. Dev, Late Devonian; P-Tr, Permian-Triassic; Tr-J, Triassic-Jurassic;
broad climate trends. (A) Rates of extinction (solid line) and origination (dotted K-Pg, Cretaceous-Paleogene). (B) Proportional genus diversity through time,
line) from the Paleobiology Database (8, 85). Colored bands represent relatively based on genera sampled within each time bin. Age in millions of years before
warm (red) and cool (blue) intervals and are based on the mean oxygen isotope the present and geological periods are indicated along the horizontal axis
ratio (d18O) of well-preserved marine skeletal carbonates (86) after detrending and (O, Ordovician; S, Silurian; D, Devonian; C, Carboniferous; P, Permian; T, Triassic;
rescaling to remove the poorly understood long-term Phanerozoic trend toward J, Jurassic; K, Cretaceous; Pg, Paleogene; Ng, Neogene).
REVIEW
the southern oceans (11). Novel climatic condi-
tions, in which new species assemblages might
form, are predicted for the tropics, with dis-
The Future of Species Under Climate appearing climates in the mountains (12). The
expected increase in frequency of extreme cli-
Change: Resilience or Decline? mate events will probably also affect species
persistence (13, 14). An important consideration
here is how landscape features such as slope,
Craig Moritz1,2,3* and Rosa Agudo1 aspect, vegetation cover, and soil moisture can
ameliorate shifts in means and extremes of
As climates change across already stressed ecosystems, there is no doubt that species will be temperature at the microenvironmental scale that
affected, but to what extent and which will be most vulnerable remain uncertain. The fossil organisms actually experience (1, 15–19). In this
record suggests that most species persisted through past climate change, whereas forecasts of context, topographically complex areas provide
future impacts predict large-scale range reduction and extinction. Many species have altered potential climate change refugia (microrefugia)
range limits and phenotypes through 20th-century climate change, but responses are highly (19–22), whereas low-relief topography can ex-
variable. The proximate causes of species decline relative to resilience remain largely obscure; acerbate climate change impacts, as organisms
however, recent examples of climate-associated species decline can help guide current must move further to remain in the same climate
management in parallel with ongoing research. space (23). In lowland areas, the requirement to
move larger distances to track climate, especial-
better understanding of how species re- past responses at millennial or greater time scales. ly if combined with dispersal limitation due to