Waqar 1

Sadaf Waqar

Nabiha Meher Shaikh

SS 100

14th April 2011

Nuclear Winter

As the U.S. and Soviet nuclear arsenals increased in the 1950s and 1960s, a direct military clash

between the superpowers was generally considered to be suicidal (Shaw 59). The article,

‘Nuclear Winter’, written in 1983 by acclaimed Pulitzer prize winning (how to cite from web??)

Professor Carl Sagan highlights the danger being posed to global security as the threat of a

nuclear war increased during the Cold War period. In this article, Carl Sagan’s focal point of

argument is that the impending doom of a nuclear war will prove to be fatal to humankind as it

will result in mass destruction in the short run and the onset of a nuclear winter in the long run,

which will make human life impossible on earth. With a stack full of thoroughly researched

studies, real life supporting arguments, simple language and the use of quantitative and

qualitative analysis, Carl Sagan has created the right kind of urgency in this text as is needed for

an issue so pressing. However in doing so, the writer fails to mention what steps could actually

be taken to avoid a nuclear winter and has therefore left the reader puzzled as to what can be a

solution to this dilemma.

Briefly summing up the article, it can be said that the article has been written to provide the

general public as well as the decision makers, the insight into what can be the destruction of the

human race, should a nuclear war occur. The author’s main aim is to inform the reader of the

way in which a nuclear war will cause widespread elimination of life on earth and
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simultaneously trigger the phenomenon we call ‘The Nuclear Winter’. Carl Sagan says that on

the onset of a nuclear winter, the world will be pitched in darkness and temperatures will drop as

low as -25 degrees Celsius, making life impossible. He therefore uses a dramatic and urgent tone

to persuade the readers to take steps to avoid such a disaster.

Nuclear winter is an article that makes use of simple understandable scientific terms and real life

examples, and explains them in such a comprehensive manner that even the most scientifically

challenged reader is able to understand the text’s meaning. Sagan has explained the term

‘Nuclear Winter’ in a very elaborate way, detailing it in such a way that it is easily understood.

The real life examples include the constant references to Hiroshima and the example of the

Bravo test, through which the author has been able to give a more graphic portrayal of his

studies. Hence, the extensive research carried out by Carl Sagan is successful in helping the

writer achieve his purpose, which is to inform the reader of the consequences of a nuclear war.

The structure of any article is vital to the effectiveness of the text and Carl Sagan has done a

remarkable job of building a solid structure for his argument. He has laid out the article in a

series of ideas, each new idea being an outcome of the preceding one. He starts off by discussing

the scale of a nuclear war and its effects, then proceeds on to give the example of a research done

on Mars and finally combines the two thoughts to present his actual argument, that is, the nuclear

winter. Moreover, most of the paragraphs of the text are structured in such a way that the author

begins with clear topic sentences and then gives facts and evidences in the beginning, thus

strengthening his stance and finally in the last lines, gives his own point of view. An excellent

example of this is paragraph three in the text.

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In making his stance even more appealing, the author has successfully discussed counter

arguments and rebutted them in a very impressive manner. Examples are when he says “There

are some who think that ….. world’s arsenals” and “But what if nuclear wars can be

contained…. is detonated?” By doing so, Sagan is able to answer any queries that may arise in a

skeptical readers mind and simultaneously direct the readers thinking towards Sagan’s own point

of view.

An adequate use of facts, statistics and surveys also adds to the author’s argument as it serves as

valid evidence to the author’s point of view. The pathos of the writer and his colleagues, serves

as an important indicator towards the credibility of the facts used. By mentioning studies carried

out by renowned people for e.g. The WHO study by Sune K Bergstrom (the 1982 Nobel laureate

in physiology and medicine) and Sagan’s own research with colleagues from NASA’s Ames

Research Center, the author is able to prove his reliability to the readers. Hence, the way in

which the author has supported and developed his ideas is very noteworthy since the facts used

act as excellent aids to the author’s stance.

Sagan admirably sustains urgency in his writing and with the use of some very graphic language

and suspense, he creates a hypothetical scenario as would occur after a nuclear war. The use of

phrases like vaporized, people reduced to atoms and shadows…. raging fires ignited, draws a

possible picture of destruction following a nuclear war. The usage of such vocabulary is

successful in making the readers grasp the magnitude of the problem which Sagan wishes to

discuss later on. Moreover, the analogy of missiles as faithful servants awaiting orders, clearly

shows that the number of nuclear warheads is many and it would take only a moment’s notice for

someone in authority to activate them. Similarly, the description, “Vast numbers of surviving
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humans ….reduced to prehistoric levels, or less,” is advantageous for the author in pumping the

reader to take some steps to curb a nuclear war by painting such a vivid destructive picture.

Sagan has very superbly managed to tap into the readers mind by psychologically convincing the

reader of the extensive nature of his research. By saying, “Could we have overlooked…” and

“What else have we overlooked,” the writer is successful in psychologically appealing to his

audience that the research done by him and his counterparts can have no possible loopholes.

Thus, by doing so, Sagan is successful in solidifying his argument even more while maintaining

coherence and unity throughout the text.

“Nuclear Winter” is perhaps a very important historical article, the likes of which are very

relevant to today’s era of increasing nuclear armament. Sagan has touched upon a very important

scientific dilemma with the right kind of precision and intellect and has demonstrated his

thoughts in a very logical and comprehensive manner.