Passenger

Year
Vehicle Sales Forecast(Naïve) Forecast(Simple Average)
2004 1061572 NA NA
2005 1143076 1061572 1061572
2006 1379979 1143076 1102324
2007 1549882 1379979 1194875.66666667
2008 1552703 1549882 1283627.25
2009 1951333 1552703 1337442.4
2010 2501542 1951333 1439757.5
2011 2629839 2501542 1591441
2012 2665015 2629839 1721240.75
2013 2503509 2665015 1826104.55555556
2014 2601111 2503509 1893845
2015 2789678 2601111 1958141.90909091
2016 3047582 2789678 2027436.58333333
2017 3288581 3047582 2105909.30769231
2018 3377389 3288581 2190385.85714286
2019 2773575 3377389 2269519.4
2020 2773575 2301022.875

4000000

3500000

3000000

2500000

2000000

1500000
 Moving average(2-period) X Exp Smoothing(Alpha=1) Equation(Y)
NA 2301022.875
NA 1 1061572 1185410.80147059
1102324 2 1143076 1334159.07794118
1261527.5 3 1379979 1482907.35441176
1464930.5 4 1549882 1631655.63088235
1551292.5 5 1552703 1780403.90735294
1752018 6 1951333 1929152.18382353
2226437.5 7 2501542 2077900.46029412
2565690.5 8 2629839 2226648.73676471
2647427 9 2665015 2375397.01323529
2584262 10 2503509 2524145.28970588
2552310 11 2601111 2672893.56617647
2695394.5 12 2789678 2821641.84264706
2918630 13 3047582 2970390.11911765
3168081.5 14 3288581 3119138.39558823
3332985 15 3377389 3267886.67205882
3075482 16 2773575 3416634.94852941

Slope 148748.27647
Intercept 1036662.525

Sales Forecast
000

000

000

000

000

000
000

000

000

000

000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Exp Smoothing(Alpha=1) Exp Smoothing(Alpha=0.2) Exp Smoothing(Alpha=0.5)

Exp Smoothing(Alpha=0.2) Exp Smoothing(Alpha=0.5) Error for Alpha=1
2301022.875 2301022.875 -1239450.875
2053132.7 1681297.4375 81504
1871121.36 1412186.71875 236903
1772892.888 1396082.859375 169903
1728290.7104 1472982.4296875 2821
1693173.16832 1512842.71484375 398630
1744805.134656 1732087.85742188 550209
1896152.5077248 2116814.92871094 128297
2042889.80617984 2373326.96435547 35176
2167314.84494387 2519170.98217773 -161506
2234553.6759551 2511339.99108887 97602
2307865.14076408 2556225.49554443 188567
2404227.71261126 2672951.74777222 257904
2532898.57008901 2860266.87388611 240999
2684035.05607121 3074423.93694305 88808
2822705.84485697 3225906.46847153 -603814
2812879.67588557 2999740.73423576

Trend Line
1143076 Column G
4000000

3500000

3000000

2500000

2000000

1500000

1000000

500000
 3000000

2500000

2000000

1500000

1000000

500000

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

11 12 13 14 15 16 17

xp Smoothing(Alpha=0.5)
Error for Alpha=0.2 Error for Alpha=0.5 Squared error(Alpha=1)
-1239450.875 -1239450.875 1536238471538.27
-910056.7 -538221.4375 6642902016
-491142.36 -32207.71875 56123031409
-223010.888 153799.140625 28867029409
-175587.7104 79720.5703125 7958041
258159.83168 438490.28515625 158905876900
756736.865344 769454.142578125 302729943681
733686.492275199 513024.071289063 16460120209
622125.193820159 291688.035644531 1237350976
336194.155056127 -15661.9821777344 26084188036
366557.324044902 89771.0089111328 9526150404
481812.859235921 233452.504455566 35557513489
643354.287388737 374630.252227783 66514473216
755682.42991099 428314.126113892 58080518001
693353.943928791 302965.063056946 7886860864
-49130.8448569672 -452331.468471527 364591346596

Average error 167215858424.079

Root of average of all err 408920.357067338
1
According to solver, minimum error is at Alpha=1
Therefore, According to RMSC method, Alpha=1 is the best
12 14 16 18
 Squared error(Alpha=0.2)Squared error(Alpha=0.5)
1536238471538.27 1536238471538.27
828203197214.89 289682315784.566
241220817786.37 1037337147.0791
49733856166.5487 23654175656.9885
30831044043.5143 6355369330.95026
66646498693.0457 192273730176.409
572650683370.663 592059677530.638
538295868947.086 263193697722.005
387039756785.771 85081910138.1653
113026509893.903 245297685.735669
134364271810.959 8058834040.92269
232143631325.094 54500071836.5763
413904739101.469 140347825884.252
571055934876.178 183452990628.707
480739691561.609 91787829433.0992
2413839916.35938 204603757369.608

387406800814.483 229535830743.998
622420.116010467 479098.978024372
0.2 0.5
minimum error is at Alpha=1
MSC method, Alpha=1 is the best
 Air passenger
Sr no Year Month movements (in Lakhs) Naïve Method
1 Jan-10 112
2 Feb-10 118
3 Mar-10 132
4 Apr-10 129
5 May-10 121
6 Jun-10 135
2010
7 Jul-10 148
8 Aug-10 148
9 Sep-10 136
10 Oct-10 119
11 Nov-10 104
12 Dec-10 118
13 Jan-11 115 112
14 Feb-11 126 118
15 Mar-11 141 132
16 Apr-11 135 129
17 May-11 125 121
18 Jun-11 149 135
2011
19 Jul-11 170 148
20 Aug-11 170 148
21 Sep-11 158 136
22 Oct-11 133 119
23 Nov-11 114 104
24 Dec-11 140 118
25 Jan-12 145 115
26 Feb-12 150 126
27 Mar-12 178 141
28 Apr-12 163 135
29 May-12 172 125
30 Jun-12 178 149
2012
31 Jul-12 199 170
32 Aug-12 199 170
33 Sep-12 184 158
34 Oct-12 162 133
35 Nov-12 146 114
36 Dec-12 166 140
37 Jan-13 171 145
38 Feb-13 180 150
39 Mar-13 193 178
40 Apr-13 181 163
41 May-13 183 172
42 Jun-13 218 178
2013
43 Jul-13 230 199
44 Aug-13 242 199
45 Sep-13 209 184
46 Oct-13 191 162
47 Nov-13 172 146
48 Dec-13 194 166
49 Jan-14 196 171
50 Feb-14 196 180
51 Mar-14 236 193
52 Apr-14 235 181
53 May-14 229 183
54 Jun-14 243 218
2014
55 Jul-14 264 230
56 Aug-14 272 242
57 Sep-14 237 209
58 Oct-14 211 191
59 Nov-14 180 172
60 Dec-14 201 194
61 Jan-15 204 196
62 Feb-15 188 196
63 Mar-15 235 236
64 Apr-15 227 235
65 May-15 234 229
66 Jun-15 264 243
2015
67 Jul-15 302 264
68 Aug-15 293 272
69 Sep-15 259 237
70 Oct-15 229 211
71 Nov-15 203 180
72 Dec-15 229 201
73 Jan-16 242 204
74 Feb-16 233 188
75 Mar-16 267 235
76 Apr-16 269 227
77 May-16 270 234

2016
78 Jun-16 315 264
2016
79 Jul-16 364 302
80 Aug-16 347 293
81 Sep-16 312 259
82 Oct-16 274 229
83 Nov-16 237 203
84 Dec-16 278 229
85 Jan-17 284 242
86 Feb-17 277 233
87 Mar-17 317 267
88 Apr-17 313 269
89 May-17 318 270
90 Jun-17 374 315
2017
91 Jul-17 413 364
92 Aug-17 405 347
93 Sep-17 355 312
94 Oct-17 306 274
95 Nov-17 271 237
96 Dec-17 306 278
97 Jan-18 284
98 Feb-18 277
99 Mar-18 317
100 Apr-18 313
101 May-18 318
102 Jun-18 374
2018
103 Jul-18 413
104 Aug-18 405
105 Sep-18 355
106 Oct-18 306
107 Nov-18 271
108 Dec-18 306

RMSE
Simple Average Method Exponential Method Error Exponential (2 degree) Error

112
115 114.877206957348 11.122793 110.480572332607 15.519428
120.666666666667 125.549758843611 15.450241 121.035357219993 19.964643
122.75 140.167736044251 -5.167736 135.430885644976 -0.430886
122.4 134.49859507584 -9.498595 129.679962038456 -4.679962
124.5 124.893579363035 24.106421 120.088685808854 28.911314
127.857142857143 147.997190151679 22.00281 143.109859698283 26.89014
130.375 168.275050115133 1.7249499 163.255932782042 6.7440672
131 168.378108561644 -10.37811 163.260151068781 -5.260151
129.8 156.894862616136 -23.89486 151.75237033184 -18.75237
127.454545454545 132.869020754505 -18.86902 127.77363526976 -13.77364
126.666666666667 114.550708191286 25.449292 109.547395087481 30.452605
125.769230769231 139.454253143771 5.5457469 134.481868746742 10.518131
125.785714285714 144.212865111208 5.7871349 139.275710158288 10.72429
126.8 149.00888472717 28.991115 144.071082702827 33.928917
127.3125 175.90433207208 -12.90433 170.926713586212 -7.926714
127.176470588235 161.539274430124 10.460726 156.541537415282 15.458463
128.388888888889 170.165327480383 7.8346725 165.172930390734 12.82707
130.578947368421 175.969366905781 23.030633 170.929375527915 28.070624
132.55 196.199456921982 2.8005431 191.073493339283 7.9265067
133.761904761905 196.280134105268 -12.28013 191.076795538219 -7.076796
133.727272727273 181.943703809565 -19.9437 176.692791113605 -14.69279
132.869565217391 160.842768598042 -14.84277 155.593215405676 -9.593215
133.166666666667 145.462557987235 20.537442 140.246674674654 25.753325
133.64 164.656098366536 6.3439016 159.428552138607 11.571448
134.269230769231 169.470817308846 10.529183
135.888888888889 178.128193234453 14.871807
136.857142857143 190.662384299152 -9.662384
138.068965517241 179.193188086699 3.8068119
139.4 181.160927188794 36.839073
141.322580645161 214.78282228253 15.217178
143.125 226.370343287644 15.629657
144.363636363636 237.952945969276 -28.95295
144.882352941176 206.354368081053 -15.35437
144.914285714286 189.112357932572 -17.11236
145.5 170.891354243489 23.108646
146.189189189189 192.014845810467 3.9851542
147.078947368421 193.961192994533 2.038807
148.25641025641 193.997611699217 42.002388
149.075 232.408565880739 2.5914341
149.90243902439 231.483002603389 -2.483003
151.52380952381 225.762456607163 17.237543
153.348837209302 239.255786747085 24.744213
155.363636363636 259.470935682666 12.529064
156.555555555556 267.22595534176 -30.22596
157.304347826087 233.707327300751 -22.70733
157.617021276596 208.802182497469 -28.80218
158.375 179.083841979649 21.916158
159.142857142857 199.255315518993 4.7446845
159.88 202.163951647972 -14.16395
161.372549019608 186.849019880213 48.15098
162.788461538462 231.986353757147 -4.986354
164.037735849057 224.371756606324 9.6282434
165.5 231.136373571372 32.863626
167.290909090909 259.968295099608 42.031705
169.160714285714 296.486220284816 -3.48622
170.350877192982 287.931132435783 -28.93113
171.051724137931 255.371501494045 -26.3715
171.203389830508 226.628118296829 -23.62812
171.7 201.698532497094 27.301468
172.229508196721 226.654652885356 15.345347
172.483870967742 239.14422300806 -6.144223
173.47619047619 230.523013462212 36.476987
174.3125 263.171975622736 5.8280244
175.230769230769 265.124344591311 4.8756554
164.224690065539 15.77531
172.857365118047 20.142635
185.327975424094 -4.327975
173.820769756976 9.1792302
175.740937953121 42.259062
209.310582401378 20.689418
220.822631222266 21.177369
232.334478731186 -23.33448
200.687277347214 -9.687277
183.424904633865 -11.4249
165.202647402497 28.797353
186.303146364932 9.6968536
188.222438968176 7.777561
188.223929622695 47.77607
226.588661714014 8.4113383
225.630964150859 3.3690358
219.877936484414 23.122064
233.307618645076 30.692381
253.45112490286 18.548875
261.127052278705 -24.12705
227.561634655651 -16.56163
202.627095512875 -22.6271
172.896480790424 28.103519
193.038199369944 10.961801
195.916692755164 -7.916693
180.572823953394 54.427176
225.65156682409 1.3484332
217.981387083927 16.018613
224.696962953531 39.303037
253.471482328226 48.528518
289.919104183802 3.0808958
281.29061588601 -22.29062
248.684264306351 -19.68426
219.913368895341 -16.91337
194.977829357791 34.022171
219.914454982962 22.085545
232.383238908597 0.6167611
223.752044182692 43.247956
256.362052179737 12.637948
258.281591260728 11.718409
176.575757575758 266.120999268033 48.879001 259.242198666961 55.757801
178.44776119403 309.334155365331 54.665845 302.402556350621 61.597444
180.132352941176 356.405158675403 -9.405159 349.400072911356 -2.400073
181.275362318841 340.169937965848 -28.16994 333.098722430336 -21.09872
181.957142857143 306.649307996537 -32.64931 299.533222866326 -25.53322
182.253521126761 270.232592505696 -33.23259 263.089743626189 -26.08974
182.902777777778 234.759171094899 43.240829 227.604687688944 50.395312
183.712328767123 274.107574245208 9.8924258 266.927603836822 17.072396
184.378378378378 279.895123902959 -2.895124 272.683374031089 4.316626
185.48 273.208903088587 43.791097 265.971006995444 51.028993
186.578947368421 311.616753010156 1.383247 304.335612026254 8.664388
187.662337662338 307.825458097386 10.174542 300.501177202316 17.498823
189.294871794872 312.665147289823 61.334853 305.298337186911 68.701663
191.506329113924 366.439831771449 46.560168 359.00893545342 53.991065
193.45 403.934039407946 1.0659606 396.41633085938 8.5836691
194.913580246914 396.341043942355 -41.34104 388.747035298103 -33.74704
195.878048780488 348.447500477109 -42.4475 340.796038015092 -34.79604
196.373493975904 301.49259684901 -30.4926 293.80327353209 -22.80327
197.345238095238 267.945461420949 38.054539 260.236689072771 45.763311
198.364705882353 301.552650395712 -301.5527 293.805731584664 -293.8057
199.279069767442 8.11926859665761 -8.119269 0.332329898362908 -0.33233
200.632183908046 8.15669443783786 -8.156694 0.333861776000347 -0.333862
201.909090909091 8.2120787719644 -8.212079 0.336128712967889 -0.336129
203.213483146067 8.26434387057819 -8.264344 0.338267976462312 -0.338268
205.111111111111 8.31773396777465 -8.317734 0.340453287289718 -0.340453
207.395604395604 8.39540580499078 -8.395406 0.343632474363086 -0.343632
209.54347826087 8.48891243209743 -8.488912 0.347459795446589 -0.34746
211.10752688172 8.57682708781331 -8.576827 0.351058231469594 -0.351058
212.117021276596 8.64084518414972 -8.640845 0.353678557080896 -0.353679
212.736842105263 8.68216481357853 -8.682165 0.355369811420496 -0.35537
213.708333333333 8.70753470872882 -8.707535 0.356408226959581 -0.356408
1479.1181 1509.8047

38.459304 38.856206
 Seasonal
Alpha
0.959069

Trend line
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
9 9 0 2 4 4 5 7 9 0 1 3 5 5 6 8 0 0 1 3 5 5 6 8 0 1 2 4 6 6 7 9
17 2 6 3 6 4 5 5 4 6 3 7 2 81 90 00 0 9 1 8 2 7 3 6 4 5 5 4 64 73 82 9 1 0 0 0 9 1 8 2 7 37 46 5 5 6 4 7 3 8 2 9 1 0 0
4 0 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 4 1 4 2 4 2 4 2 42 42 42 4 2 4 2 4 2 4 2 4 2 4 3
 Chart Title
450

400
 Chart Title
450

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350
f(x) = 0.076687883102936 x − 2978.3449176148
300

250

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100

50

0
10 10 10 r-1
1 11 12 l-1
2 12 -1
3
-1
3
-1
4 14 15 15 15 r-1
6 16 17 l -1
7 1
n- n- v- p- b- Ju c- ay ct ar g- n- n- v- p- b- Ju c-
Ja Ju No Ap Se Fe De M O M A u Ja Ju No Ap Se Fe De
 2 4 6 6 7 9
55 264 273 282 291 300
4 4 4 4 4
5 6 16 17 7 17 8 8
r-1 p- b- l -1 c- -1 -1
Ap Ju ay ct
Se Fe De M O