Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Richard E. Nisbett
University of Michigan
Top Bar Reserved for U-M Branding and Course Information
Lesson 1: Statistics
• Concepts: variable, normal distribution, standard
deviation, correlation, reliability and validity
• If you’ve had one course spend a few minutes looking at
material to see if it’s helpful
• If you’ve had several courses in statistics it makes sense
to go straight to Lesson 2
• No math
• No math
Top Bar Reserved for U-M Branding and Course Information
Lesson 3: Correlation
• A correlation tells us the degree of association
between two variables
• E.g., mothers’ height and daughters’ height, IQ and
income
• Difficult to detect some correlations
• Worse: we detect lots of correlations that aren’t really
there
• You need protection from the media – because many
reporters don’t understand these principles
Top Bar Reserved for U-M Branding and Course Information
Lesson 4: Experiments
• What makes a good experiment
• Why experiments are superior to correlational
evidence
• The concept of natural experiments:
– E.g., the town without toothache
• How to do experiments on yourself
– E.g., does coffee make you more or less efficient?
• The terrific costs society pays for the
experiments it doesn’t do
Top Bar Reserved for U-M Branding and Course Information
Lesson 5: Predicting
• Concept of regression to the mean
– Extreme values are rare, the next value you encounter is probably
going to be less extreme
– E.g., Joan is probably not going to be as extraordinarily generous
the next time you see her
• Concept of base rate
– Predictions about a case should take into account what other
similar cases are like
Top Bar Reserved for U-M Branding and Course Information
Text
• Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking (2015) by Richard E.
Nisbett. New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux
• Available in paperback, Kindle and audio