Chapter Three

Data analysis and interpretation in

Diplomacy and IR
Temesgen A (PhD)
 What is the deference between Data,
Information ?
 Types of Data
We distinguish six types of data:
1. Existing numerical data;
2. Newly generated numerical data;
3. Existing linguistic data;
4. Newly generated linguistic data;
5. Existing visual data and
6. Newly generated visual data
• How tall are you?
• What is the ratio of your age with him?
• What is your religion?
 Levels of measurement
• There are four levels of measurement.
– Nominal
– Ordinal
– Interval and
– Ratio

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 Nominal Variables
• Properly defined with logically exhaustive and
mutually exclusive categories.
• Attributes are only named.
• There is no ordering of categories
Examples: marital status, gender, group
membership, religious affiliation, etc.

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 Ordinal Variables
• Ordinal measurement, the attributes can be
rank-ordered.
• The items in this scale are ordered.
• There is an ordered relationship between the
variable’s observations.
• Likert scale is a widely used questionnaire
format
Examples: low, medium, high
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 Interval Variables
• The interval level of measurement not only classifies and
orders the measurements, but it also specifies that the
distances between each interval on the scale are equivalent
along the scale from low interval to high interval.
• Defined standard unit of measurement.
• Interval scales are numerical scales in which intervals have the
same interpretation throughout.
• They do not have a true zero point
Examples: Temperature in Celsius or Fahrenheit

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 Ratio Variables
• It shows ratio of variables
• Examples: Height, weight, etc.

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 Sources of Error in Measurement
• Measurement should be precise and unambiguous in
an ideal research study.
• This objective, however, is often not met with in
entirety.
• As such the researcher must be aware about the
sources of error in measurement.
• The following are the possible sources of error in
measurement.

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 (A) Respondent:
• At times the respondent may be reluctant to express
strong negative feelings or it is just possible that he
may have very little knowledge but may not admit his
ignorance.
• All this reluctance is likely to result in an interview of
‘guesses.’
• Transient factors like fatigue, boredom, anxiety, etc.
may limit the ability of the respondent to respond
accurately and fully.

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 (b) Situation:
• Situational factors may also come in the way of correct
measurement.
• Any condition which places a strain on interview can
have serious effects on the interviewer-respondent
rapport.
• For instance, if someone else is present, he can distort
responses by joining in or merely by being present. If
the respondent feels that anonymity is not assured, he
may be reluctant to express certain feelings.

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 (C ) The researcher
• Socio cultural background
• Bias
• Influence from funding bodies
 (d) Instrument:
• Error may arise because of the defective measuring
instrument.
• The use of complex words, beyond the comprehension of the
respondent, ambiguous meanings, poor printing, inadequate
space for replies, response choice omissions, etc. are a few
things that make the measuring instrument defective and may
result in measurement errors.
• Another type of instrument deficiency is the poor sampling of
the universe of items of concern.

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 Group Exercise 1
• Assume that you are conducting a research on
any particular issue of your choices
• Identify your target audiences to collect
Quantitative data
• Prepare 5 Questionnaires ?
 Group Exercise 2
• Assume that you are conducting a research on
any particular issue of your choices

• Identify your target audiences to collect

Qualitative data
• Prepare 10 guiding interview questions
 Data analysis and Interpretation
• Descriptive analysis
1. Correlation analysis studies the joint variation of two
or more variables for determining the amount of
correlation between two or more variables.
2. Causal analysis is concerned with the study of how one
or more variables affect changes in another variable.
3. Multivariate analysis which may be defined as “all
statistical methods which simultaneously analyse more
than two variables on a sample of observations”.
 Qualitative Analysis
• Content analysis
• Narrative analysis
• Discourse analysis
• Thematic analysis
 Process of data analysis

• Sensing the whole • Suggesitions,

captured data • openions,
• Identifying the mising Organize and • concerns Identification • identifing output
• keeping all data for
data Categorise of Pattern future use

• Recomendations,
• Associations,
indicators
• strength, weakness, • causual relationships,
Data input Lebeling • paterns among data Finializing and
Capturing Storage
 Errors in Data analysis
• Data analysis errors may occur due to
1. The psycho-social background of the researcher
2. The techniques utilized in data collection and analysis.
• Wrong techniques and Abuse of statistics, the first task
of the researcher is defining its goal and designing
appropriate way of data analysis techniques.
• Cognitive biases, in this case the researcher may be
exposed to different bias, such as cultural bias,
organizational bias, or bias that results from one’s own
self-interest.
 ….continued
• Cognitive biases which are mental errors caused by
our simplified information processing strategies
frequently affects data analysis.
• Self-Imposed Constraints which is simply allowing the
researcher’s thinking as free as possible. It is necessary
to free oneself from self-imposed constraints, whether
they stem from analytical habit, limited perspective,
social norms and emotional blocks (Kothari, 2004).
• Analysis errors – wrong theory or wrong analysis
applied to data, which are used to ”fit” the data.
 Avoiding errors in Data analysis
• Role playing; playing a role is commonly used to overcome
constraints and inhibitions that limit the range of one’s thinking
and analysis ability. It is simply means changing once place
Playing a role changes “where you sit.”
• Devil’s Advocate; A devil’s advocate is someone who defends a
point of view in the other side. This helps to expose conflicting
interpretations and show how alternative assumptions and
images make the world look different. It helps to see how our
data can be resulted and looks like if we see in different
perspective.
• Challenging a single, strongly held view or consensus by building
the best possible case for an alternative explanation.

Exercise Challenge your fiends idea with devil’s advocate

• Cross-Fertilization of Ideas; Ideas must be broken
down, synthesized or analyzed. Ideas should be
combined with each other to form more and even
better pictures. Personal interaction stimulates new
associations between ideas. It also induces greater
effort and helps maintain concentration on the task.
• Thinking backwards; as an intellectual exercise, start
with an assumption that some event you did not expect
has actually occurred. Then, put yourself into the future,
looking back to explain how this could have happened.
• HIGH-IMPACT/LOW-PROBABILITY ANALYSIS Highlights
a seemingly unlikely event that would have major policy
consequences if it happened.
• “WHAT IF?” ANALYSIS: Assumes that an event has occurred with potential
(negative or positive) impact and explains how it might come about.
• BRAINSTORMING An unconstrained group process designed to generate new
ideas and concepts.
• OUTSIDE-IN THINKING Used to identify the full range of basic forces, factors,
and trends that would indirectly shape an issue.
• RED TEAM ANALYSIS Models the behavior of an individual or group by trying to
replicate how an adversary would think about an issue.

Apply different analysis techniques to

examine the impact of Sudanese Coup
in Ethiopia
 Logical reasoning
• Deductive Reasoning: reasoning from general
premises, which are known or presumed to be
known, to more specific, certain conclusions.
• Induction: reasoning from specific cases to more
general, but uncertain, conclusions.
• Inductive reasoning aims at developing a theory
while deductive reasoning aims at testing an
existing theory.
 Tools of analysis
• Quantitative software. eg SPSS
• Qualitative software. Eg Atlas Ti
• Date of Submission for Individual and group
Assignments