Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (xxxx) xxx

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth

journal homepage: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pce

Assessing impacts of climate change on flexible pavement service life based

on Falling Weight Deflectometer measurements
Yaning Qiao a, Yang Zhang b, *, Yuefeng Zhu c, **, Trent Lemkus d, Anne M.K. Stoner e,
Jizhe Zhang f, Yuanlong Cui g
a
State Key Laboratory for Geomechanics & Deep Underground Engineering, Research Center for Digitalized Construction and Knowledge Engineering, China University of
Mining and Technology, China
b
Institute for Advanced Manufacturing, University of Nottingham, UK
c
School of Traffic and Transportation, Shijiazhuang Tiedao University, China
d
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Hampshire, NH, USA
e
Texas Tech University Climate Center, Lubbock, TX, USA
f
School of Qilu Transportation, Shandong University, China
g
Department of Built Environment, University of Derby, UK

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Flexible pavements are typically designed using historical climate but are challenged by future climate change.
Flexible pavements Quantifying impacts of climate change on pavement service life can assist road authorities in planning for climate
Resilience adaptation and, eventually, build climate resilience into road infrastructure design and management. In this
Stiffness
study, a novel data-driven methodology is developed in order to quantify impacts of climate change on pavement
CMIP5
Artificial neural networks
service life in locations where Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) data are continuously measured, by means of:
1) training a supervised model (linear regression or Artificial Neural Networks, ANN) using historical climate
data, maintenance, and traffic data as the candidate inputs and pavement layer stiffness back calculated from
FWD testing as the outputs; 2) predicting layer stiffness using statistically downscaled future climate projections
for three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models and three greenhouse gas
concentration scenarios for four future 20-year periods; and 3) estimating changes in pavement stiffness and
service lives due to climate change. A case study performed on a pavement section in Minnesota has shown that
pavement layer stiffness will have a long-term reduction under future climate and the investigated pavement will
lose up to 22.5% service life at the end of the century (2080–2099) from the 20 years’ service life compared to
the baseline climate (1979–1998).

1. Introduction pavements to varying climate conditions so that local agencies can

Pavements in many regions are subject to accelerated deterioration
due to adversely changing climate conditions over their life cycles.
Particularly, flexible pavements, as the majority of U.S. pavements, are
more prone to the impacts of changing climate, compared to rigid or
composite pavements (NAPA, 2017). However, most flexible pavement
design and management assume that the climate remains stationary
over the pavements’ service life and thus do not consider the pavement
performance degradation that may result from future climate change. As
a result, this may lead to enormous economic losses and even cata­
strophic consequences and thus it is important to assess the responses of
assess the importance and urgency of incorporating future climate
projections into the design and management of future road
infrastructure.
Conventional studies to assess the impacts of climate change on
pavements often adopt mechanistic-empirical models, i.e. models for
pavement system responses under projected future climate loading (e.g.
Mills et al., 2007; Tighe et al., 2008; Li et al., 2011; Knott et al., 2019,
Stoner et al., 2019; Knutti et al., 2013). Those studies all indicate that
pavements will deteriorate faster under future climate, particularly for
rutting (i.e. permanent deformation), roughness, and cracking (Tighe
et al., 2008; Mills et al., 2009). The additional deterioration can

* Corresponding author.
** Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: y.zhang1205@gmail.com (Y. Zhang), yuefengzhu@stdu.edu.cn (Y. Zhu).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2020.102908
Received 30 October 2018; Received in revised form 15 January 2020; Accepted 4 July 2020
Available online 13 August 2020
1474-7065/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article as: Yaning Qiao, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2020.102908
Y. Qiao et al.
primarily be attributed to increases in both average and extreme tem­
peratures, which can lead to a significant reduction (sometimes even
greater than 20%) in pavement service life (Qiao et al., 2013). The
accelerated deterioration and reduced pavement service life are esti­
mated to incur substantial adaptation costs at a regional or national
scale (Qiao et al., 2019;Underwood et al., 2017; Chinowsky et al., 2013;
Schweikert et al., 2014; Mallick et al., 2014). These studies usually rely
on the mechanistic-empirical models and require substantial field cali­
bration, which is time and resource consuming.
As an alternative approach, this study attempts to develop an
approach to assess impacts of climate change on pavement stiffness and
service life using a data driven approach. In recent years, more and more
pavement monitoring data are collected and shared in freely accessible
databases and FWD measurements have been widely applied in moni­
toring structural responses of pavements. Although FWD testing is pri­
marily used for pavement structural capacity evaluation, it can also
capture the variability of stiffness in pavements caused by changes in the
climate, which can be used to derive pavement responses to climate
variations. Furthermore, climate monitoring data and downscaled
future climate model output that represent locally relevant climate
variability (including extremes) are freely available nationwide for the
U.S. and provide variables such as air temperature, precipitation, and
groundwater levels, which pavements have already been exposed to or
are likely to be exposed to in the future (Douglas et al., 2017; Tryhorn
and DeGaetano, 2011; Yang et al., 2011, Rau et al., in press).
The aim of this study is to develop a method able to quantify impacts
of climate change on pavement service life as a by-product of pavement
structural monitoring using FWD, along with pavement and climate
data. By doing so, assessing impacts of climate change on pavement
service life does not have to rely on locally calibrated pavement stiffness
models. A case study is conducted for a Long-Term Pavement Perfor­
mance (LTPP) flexible pavement section (27–1018) in Minnesota, to
illustrate the methodology (Elkins et al., 2016). The method described
here can be further developed into a protocol to measure impacts of
anticipated future climate on pavement service life using FWD. Rather
than developing a universal model, this study is targeted to develop a
universal method to assess impacts of climate change on pavement
service life and this method can be applied where FWD data, pavement
data, and climate data and projections are available.
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 ex­
plores different factors impacting pavement service life based on pre­
vious research and constructs a comprehensive database that includes
data from a range of sources. Section 3 is a summary of collected data.
The methodology of this study is described in Section 4, demonstrated
with a case study. Results and discussion are presented in Section 5.
Section 6 discusses uncertainties involved in this study before the con­
clusions in Section 7.
2. Factors affecting pavement service life
Some flexible pavements are more prone to damage than others, due
to changing in local climates, presumably together with high levels of
traffic, less robust structure, or insufficient maintenance. Thus, it is
necessary to first explore factors that may impact pavement service life
in order to more accurately estimating potential impacts of climate
change.
The stiffness of the pavement is an important pavement performance
indicator and an essential factor for estimating load bearing capacity
and service life with reduced traffic bearing capacity and service life as
the stiffness degrades. Previous studies have shown that temperature
and moisture levels can significantly affect stiffness, pavement perfor­
mance, and service life (Huang, 2004; Drumm et al., 1997; Buttlar and
Roque, 1996; Lekarp et al., 2000). Temperature mainly impacts the
asphalt course, which is usually considered as visco-elastic/elastic ma­
terial, causing a decrease in stiffness as the temperature increases
(Buttlar and Roque, 1996; Monismith et al., 1965). When temperatures
2
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (xxxx) xxx
are excessively high, the stiffness can decrease significantly and there­
fore results in much lower traffic loading ability and thus reduced ser­
vice life. On the contrary, under low and freezing temperatures, the
asphalt course can gain stiffness. The stiffness of unbound granular
layers (UGL) e.g. base course and subgrade (SG) is sensitive to moisture
(Monismith et al., 1975; Thom and Brown, 1987; Dawson, 2009),
especially when fine materials are present. Excessive moisture can be
caused by extreme precipitation events or significant groundwater rise
and can be damaging to pavements. Increased moisture levels in the
pavement structure can lead to reduced stiffness of unbound granular
materials and subgrade (Hicks and Monismith, 1971; Salour, 2015) and
thus reduced service life, especially when the granular materials and
subgrade are partly or fully saturated (Drumm et al., 1997; Lekarp et al.,
2000). Stress history and maintenance can also impact pavement stiff­
ness (Lekarp et al., 2000). Cumulative traffic loading is a typical mea­
surement reflecting stress history, which can compress asphalt and
granular materials and make the materials stiffer (i.e. seemingly
increasing traffic bearing capacity). However, repetitive traffic loading
can cause fatigue cracking, permanent deformation, and increased
roughness. Pavement maintenance such as surface treatment, overlay or
mill & fill can change the pavement structure and layer stiffness with
substitutive materials.
3. Data exploration
The investigated pavement section is a rural principal arterial on the
eastbound section of U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota. It was constructed
in 1979 and the climate can be characterized as wet freeze, indicating
frequent precipitation and cold winters. The pavement consists of an
asphalt course (AC: 9 cm, 120-150Pen), a granular base course (BC: 13
cm, AASHTO A-1-b: uncrushed gravel), a weathered subgrade course
(WSG: 60 cm, AASHTO A-3: poorly graded sand with silt), and subgrade
(SG: AASHTO A-3: poorly graded sand with silt). The WSG is assumed to
work as a subbase layer to distribute traffic loading to the subgrade.
Since Aug 1990, FWD testing has been conducted approximately
twice per year on the section and there are 40 measurements in total.
Stiffness data for each of the four layers have been back-calculated based
on the FWD measurements and are available through the LTPP database.
Local climate variables including statistically downscaled local baseline
(1979–1998) and future (2020–2099) daily maximum temperature and
precipitation are extracted for three CMIP5 global climate models:
CCSM4.1, GFDL-EMS2g.1, and MIROC-ESM.1, which have been pro­
cessed by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) CMIP Data
Processing Tool (Dot, 2016). Groundwater levels are monitored and
measured as the distance between the groundwater level and the
pavement surface (available on the LTPP database). The traffic data are
cumulative equivalent single axle load (ESAL), which is converted from
the traffic volume and classification. During the 20-year baseline period
(1979–1998), two types of maintenance have been applied to the
pavement, which are surface treatment and mill & fill. The surface
treatment was applied in 1994, consisting of a single layer hot mixed and
hot laid dense graded asphalt concrete. The mill & fill was applied in
1995, filled with 15 mm overlay made of hot mix recycled asphalt
concrete. The maintenance data are split into two vectors, one repre­
sents surface treatment and the other mill & fill. The vector is coded as
binary (0 for no maintenance and 1 for performing maintenance in year
n). Finally, a database that contains monitoring data from various
sources is constructed, including the back-calculated layer stiffness, air
temperature, precipitation, groundwater level, cumulative ESAL, and
maintenance interventions.
4. Methodology
4.1. Overview of the methodology
The first step to the methodology, presented as a flowchart in Fig. 1,
Y. Qiao et al.
is preparing the acquired data described in Section 3 into a universal
format. The purpose of the data preparation is to synchronize each FWD
testing (40 measurements in total) with its daily maximum temperature,
daily precipitation, groundwater level (monthly values as available),
traffic load history (yearly cumulative ESAL), surface treatment and mill
& fill for each month. As the above parameters were not always
continuously recorded (e.g. groundwater level), FWD measurements
were neglected if any of these parameters were not available at the time
of the FWD measurements. The data preparation consolidates all data
into tables of 35 rows, with six input attributes in columns (see Inputs
1–6 in Fig. 1) including the daily maximum air temperature, daily pre­
cipitation, monthly average groundwater level, yearly cumulative ESAL,
surface treatment (0 or 1), and mill & fill (0 or 1). Layer stiffness (in AC,
BC, WSG and SG layers respectively, see Fig. 1: Output) prediction
models are then trained using Inputs 1 to 6 as candidates (Fig. 1: His­
torical Data Collection). The prediction models include a linear regres­
sion model and a non-linear model (artificial neural network, ANN).
The model with better fitness score and cross validation perfor­
mance, is then fed with estimated future climate, traffic and mainte­
nance (Fig. 1: Inputs 1′ to 6′ ) to predict future monthly pavement
stiffness (Fig. 1: Output’). The goodness-of-fit and cross validation per­
formance of the prediction models are discussed in Section 5.1.
Projected daily maximum temperature and precipitation amounts
are obtained from three statistically downscaled CMIP5 climate models
for the periods 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079, and 2080–2099
(Dot, 2016). Three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios were
selected to account for inherent uncertainties in climate projections: a
high emission scenario (RCP8.5), an intermediate emission scenario
(RCP6.0), and a very low emission scenario (RCP2.6) (IPCC, 2013,
Fig. 1. Flowchart of the methodology.
3
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (xxxx) xxx
2014). Projections from three climate models are adopted (CCSM4.1,
GFDL-EMS2g.1, and MIROC-ESM.1) to represent a plausible range in
projections due to model uncertainty. The selection approach is rec­
ommended by the Infrastructure and Climate Networks (ICNet, 2019)
and is described by Knutti et al. (2013). The future climate projections
used here are discussed further in Section 4.3.
The future groundwater level, traffic, and maintenance patterns
(Fig. 1: Inputs 3′ to 6′ ) are estimated using the naïve forecasting tech­
nique (Hyndman and Athanasopoulos, 2018). Naïve forecasting is an
estimating technique in which the last period’s actuals are used as the
next period’s forecast, without any adjustment. This technique is uti­
lized to estimate future traffic load and maintenance performed on the
considered road section based on historical data. In effect, the patterns
of Input 3′ to 6′ are kept identical to Input 3 to 6, respectively. By
keeping the patterns constant, the “net” changes in damage and service
life caused directly by changes in climate can be derived, while the
impacts from other factors (Inputs 3 to 6 and 3′ to 6′ ) can be effectively
excluded. If this was not done, the estimated differences in pavement
damage between the historical and future periods will not only be
affected by changes in the climate but also by other factors. The meth­
odology for calculating critical strain, damage and service life from layer
stiffness is described in Section 4.4.
4.2. Model pool
Separate regression models are developed for each pavement layer
and different inputs are chosen for the layer according to the correlation
between the inputs and output. Inputs are selected based on reviewing of
factors affecting pavement service life (Section 2) and are only
Y. Qiao et al.
considered if there is an acceptable correlation with the output (Pear­
son’s coefficient of correlation ρ ≥ 0.1, discussed further later in Section
5).
To illustrate the comparison process we show two regression models:
a linear and a non-linear regression model, with the latter applying an
ANN model due to its efficiency in expressing non-linear relationships
(Yegnanarayana, 2009). For each pavement layer, the linear regression
model can be expressed as:
ŷi = β1 *x1,i + β2 *x2,i … + βi *xn,i + β0
where
ŷi = the estimated layer stiffness (i = 1 to 35)
x1,i , x2,i ,… xn,i = the ith value of the i = 1,2,…,n selected inputs
β0 , β1 , β2 ,… βn = regression coefficients
For each pavement layer, a non-linear ANN model is also developed.
The ANN model consists of three layers, including an input layer, a
hidden layer, and an output layer. In principle, the ANN models are a
series of non-linear models with the input layer consisting of vectors of
the selected correlated inputs (x1,i to xn,i ) and the hidden layer being a
number of pre-determined neurons, the values of each of which are
calculated by an input function (zj,i , considers all correlated inputs, see
Eq. (1)) and a hyperbolic tangent function (Eq. (3)) as the activation
function chosen for this study. The estimated layer stiffness is a function
of the results from the activation function of each neuron (Eq. (4)). The
ANN analysis is conducted using the predictive analytics software JMP
Pro and the algorithm is expressed in Eqs. (2)–(4):
zj,i = γ j, 1 *x 1,i + γ j, 2 *x2,i … + γj,i *xn, i + γj,0
( )
( ) sinh zj, i 1 − e− 2*zj, i climate data and the 3rd quartiles are all less than the maximums of the
tanh zj,i = ( )= 2*zj,
cosh zj, i 1 + e− i
( ) ( ) ( )
y i = α1 * tanh z1, i + α2 * tanh z2, i … + αj * tanh zj, i + α0
̂ (4)
where
zj,i = input function of the jth neuron for the ith value (i = 1 to 35)
tanh(zj, i ) = hyperbolic tangent activation function for neuron j
α0 , α1 , …, αj , γj,0 , γj, 1 , γj, 2 …,γj,i = regression factors
Eventually, all the regression factors (of both the linear and non-
linear regression models) are solved by using a least-square method to
minimize the mean square error (MSE, Eq. (5)). This process is called
training.
(
1∑35 2 4.4. Calculating pavement damage and service life
MSE = y i − ŷi ) (5)
i i=1
where
y i = measured layer stiffness for a layer ( i = 1 to 35)
4.3. Future climate projections
Downscaled climate projections were downloaded from the U.S.
Department of Transportation “CMIP Tool” (Dot, 2016), which accesses
datasets provided by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. The statistical
downscaling technique used by the CMIP Tool is the Bias Correction –
Constructed Analogues technique (Hidalgo et al., 2008). The technique
matches a particular coarse-scale climate anomaly map for a particular
day from the GCM with historically observed maps at high resolution
(12 × 12 km) and produces an analogue, which is a linear combination
of 30 historical anomaly maps at the higher resolution.
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (xxxx) xxx
The downscaled climate projections consider different GHG con­
centration scenarios describing the future development and energy
pathways of the society, which impacts emissions of GHGs and thus
changes in the projected climate. Three GHG emission scenarios: a
business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5), a mid-range scenario (RCP6.0),
and a very low scenario assuming net negative emissions by 2070
(RCP2.6) were selected for this study (IPCC, 2013; IPCC, 2014). The
RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 represent the upper/lower boundary of changes in
climate, while RCP6.0 represents an intermediate scenario. GCMs differ
(1)
due to the specific region they were developed and targeted for, there­
fore, in order to account for model uncertainties, here, three GCMs were
included: CCSM4.1 (U.S.), GFDL-EMS2g.1 (U.S.), and MIROC-ESM.1
(Japan). The three selected GCMs are from different main branches of
the climate models’ family tree i.e. their projection principles are less
connected to one another and can thus represent variabilities as a choice
of GCMs (Knutti et al., 2013). The variabilities are typically caused by
bias, simplification, omissions, parameterization, and numerical ap­
proximations (Knutti et al., 2013).
A brief summary of the climate projections is shown in Box and
Whisker Plots (Fig. 2), compared with the prepared data and baseline
data. The future GCM output (CCSM4.1, GFDL-ESM2G.1, and MIROC-
ESM.1 model projections under RCP8.5, RCP6.0, and RCP2.6 sce­
narios) include daily maximum air temperature and daily precipitation
from 2020 to 2099. The plots show the median value (the horizontal
lines near the middle of the boxes), 1st quartile (the bottom lines of the
boxes), 3rd quartile (the top lines of the boxes), maximum, and mini­
mum values (The bottom and top lines of the whiskers (i.e. vertical lines)
extended from the ends of the boxes).
It can be seen from Fig. 2 that the maximum and the minimum values
(2) of the prepared climate data can cover most of the projected data (e.g.
the 1st quartiles are all greater than the minimums of the prepared
(3) prepared climate data). A detailed analysis was performed and it was
found that the range of the prepared data for daily maximum air tem­
perature can cover at least 83%, 89%, and 83% projected data from the
CCSM4.1, GFDL-ESM2G.1, and MIROC-ESM.1 models respectively. For
daily precipitation, the prepared data can cover at least 98%, 97%, and
97% of the projected data from the CCSM4.1, GFDL-ESM2G.1, and
MIROC-ESM.1 models respectively. However, as there are still data
outside the range of the training data, it is strongly recommended that
the training data shall be sampled when the temperature or participation
is at extremes. In other words, the FWD testing is recommended to
perform during extreme high/low temperatures, after precipitation
events, high groundwater level, or after flooding, in order to fully cap­
ture the responses of layer stiffness to extreme climatic conditions.
The best-fitting regression model is selected to predict monthly layer
stiffness (including AC, BC, WSG, and SG) from 2020 to 2099 with
downscaled future climates using the three different climate models and
AC
BC
WSG
SG
Fig. 2. Box and Whisker plots of climate: a) daily maximum air temperature; b)
daily precipitation.
4
Y. Qiao et al.
future scenarios described in Section 4.3. In addition, the baseline
monthly layer stiffness is also predicted under the baseline climate for
comparison purposes.
The investigated pavement is then simulated using multi-layer
elasticity theory to calculate the monthly strains at the critical posi­
tions (also called the critical strains), i.e. tensile strain at the bottom of
the asphalt layer (εt ) and the vertical strain on top of the subgrade (εv ).
The simulated traffic load is one ESAL, which is equivalent to 80 KN. The
radius for the contact area (between a tire and the pavement surface) is
15 cm. The Poisson’s ratios for the layers are set to be constant at 0.35
(AC), 0.35 (BC), 0.3 (WSG), and 0.3 (SG). The analysis considered
monthly values of layer moduli to show variations of temperature and
precipitation in historical or future climates.
The multi-layer elasticity theory has long been applied in pavement
strain and stress analyses and the critical strains are widely accepted
pavement failure criteria (Huang, 2004). In this study, a program called
KenLayer is used to perform the strain calculations. Although it adopts
various simplifications (e.g. uniform load distribution, isotropic and
homogeneous material stiffness, infinite layer in the horizontal direction
and infinite subgrade), the KenLayer is used in this study because it is
simplistic and computationally efficient. The monthly allowable number
of loading repetition for fatigue and rutting damage is thereafter
calculated, using Minnesota damage transfer functions (Timm et al.,
1999):
Nffatigue = 2.83 × 10− 6 *(εt )− 3.148
(6)
Nfrutting = 1.00 × 1016 *(εv )− 3.870
(7)
where
Nffatigue = number of load repetitions required to failure due to fa­
tigue cracking
Nfrutting = number of load repetitions required to failure due to rutting
εt = tensile strain at the bottom of the asphalt layer (micron)
εv = vertical strain on top of subgrade (micron)
Next, the accumulated damage under the baseline and future climate
can be computed as follows (Miner’s rule):
∑n
ni
Damage = (8)
Nf i
i=1
where
∑ are shown in Fig. 4. The results show that the trained non-linear models
Damage = percentage of damage after n1 ni load repetitions
ni = load repetitions in ESAL during period i
Nfi = number of allowable load repetitions (in ESAL) for period i
Pavement service life is eventually estimated as whenever damage
reached 100% either due to fatigue or rutting. Damage and service lives
were calculated for the investigated section under both the baseline and
future climates.
5. Results and discussion
5.1. Performance of the prediction models
After the data preparation, Pearson’s coefficient of correlation, ρ, is
calculated between stiffness (Fig. 1: Output) of each pavement layer and
all the inputs (Fig. 1: Input 1 to 6) including daily maximum temperature
(Tmax), precipitation, groundwater level (GWT), surface treatment
(ST), mill & fill, as well as traffic. Calculating ρ is to test whether the
prepared data agrees with existing knowledge in the pavement field,
regarding layer stiffness and its influencing factors. The resulting ab­
solute values for the four layers are presented in Table 1. It is observed
5
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (xxxx) xxx
that: 1) The stiffness of AC is strongly correlated to the daily maximum
temperature (ρ = 0.84). This is in accordance with widely accepted
consensus in pavement field that temperature is the most influential
climatic factors for AC stiffness (Huang, 2004). AC stiffness has a weak
correlation with precipitation (ρ = 0.13), mill & fill (ρ = 0.16) and traffic
(ρ = 0.15). It has almost no correlation with the groundwater level (ρ =
0), as AC layers are usually above the groundwater level (unless floo­
ded). 2) The BC stiffness is moderately correlated to groundwater level
(ρ = 0.6) and has a weak correlation with temperature (ρ = 0.21),
precipitation (ρ = 0.14), and mill & fill (ρ = 0.1). This likely suggest that
BC stiffness is moisture sensitive (Dawson, 2009). The correlations be­
tween BC stiffness and surface treatment (ρ = 0.02) or traffic (ρ = 0.05)
are negligible. This is most likely because the treatment restored its
surface functionality, however, has little impact on BC structural stiff­
ness. 3) The WSG stiffness has a weak correlation with temperature (ρ =
0.33), precipitation (ρ = 0.13), GWT (ρ = 0.24) and traffic (ρ = 0.18)
and is mostly irrelevant with maintenance (either surface treatment (ρ
= 0.05) or mill & fill (ρ = 0.02)). 4) The SG stiffness has a moderate or
weak correlation with temperature (ρ = 0.51), precipitation (ρ = 0.15)
and GWT (ρ = 0.23) and has much less correlation with maintenance
(either surface treatment (ρ = 0.03), mill & fill (ρ = 0.01), or traffic (ρ =
0.08)). While WSG or SG stiffness variations are usually associated with
moisture but not temperature changes, the moderate correlation with
temperature may be caused by temperature-induced moisture changes
(e.g. spring thaw). The above information is used to select the correlated
parameters of stiffness for each layer to perform the linear and
non-linear regression analyses. Factors with a ρ of less than 0.1 were
considered irrelevant and thus neglected. The observed Pearson’s co­
efficients are reasonable and can be explained with existing knowledge,
therefore, the prepared data are considered to be valid and can be used
in further analysis.
Regression analyses are performed for Inputs 1–6 as well as the
output, using linear and non-linear regressions. The results for the AC
and SG layers are shown in Fig. 3 as examples. Both the linear regression
and non-linear regression results show good matches with the measured
stiffness. The Pearson’s coefficient of correlation between the measured
and predicted stiffness for AC, BC, WSG, and SG are 0.91, 0.77, 0.32 and
0.82 for the non-linear model and 0.88, 0.7, 0.34 and 0.46 for the linear
model, respectively.
To evaluate the model’s ability to predict unknowns, cross-validation
is performed by randomly partitioning approximately 2/3 data into a
training set and the remaining 1/3 to a validation set. The training set is
then used to perform the non-linear regression analyses and the trained
model is used to predict stiffness in the validation set, examples of which
have fair predictions for the validation set. Similar conclusions are also
found for BC and WSG layers. Although not significant, the non-linear
model shows greater correlations for most of the layers in the cross
validation and thus it is chosen for further analysis.
After validation, all 35 rows of data are used to train the ANN model
and an optimization for the number of neurons in the hidden ANN layers
is performed. This process is undertaken to optimize the performance of
the non-linear model. Neuron values including 2, 4, 6 and 8 are tested
for each layer and the optimal neuron number is determined when the
Table 1
Pearson’s coefficient of correlation between measured layer stiffness and inputs.
Pearson’s correlation Output: Layer stiffness
AC BC WSG SG
Input 1: Daily maximum air temperature 0.84 0.21 0.33 0.51
Input 2: Daily rainfall 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.15
Input 3: Monthly groundwater level 0.01 0.60 0.24 0.23
Input 4: Yearly cumulative traffic load 0.15 0.05 0.18 0.08
Input 5: Surface treatment vector 0.09 0.02 0.05 0.03
Input 6: Mill & fill vector 0.16 0.10 0.02 0.01
Y. Qiao et al. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (xxxx) xxx

Fig. 3. Measured stiffness versus predicted stiffness using linear and non-linear regression models (1000 ksi ≈ 6900 MPa).

Fig. 4. Cross-validation of the non-linear model (1000 ksi ≈ 6900 MPa).

MSE is at its minimum, relative to the other neuron permutations. Re­ with greater values in winters and smaller values in summers, mainly
sults show that 8, 8, 2, and 6 hidden neurons for the AC, BC, WSG and SG due to changes in the temperature i.e. AC stiffness is greater in winters
layer are optimal. and less in summers (see Fig. 5). AC stiffness appears to become more
The trained ANNs are furthermore used to predict monthly stiffness extreme in the late phase of the 20-year period, which is caused by in­
in a 20-year-period baseline (1979–1998) and future climates creases in the differences of the extreme high and low temperatures. SG
(2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079, and 2080–2099) for each layer. stiffness also showed seasonal variability with peaks in winter (frozen)
The prediction assumes the only variables are daily maximum temper­ and valleys in summers. This is likely due to higher groundwater level or
ature and precipitation. Other factors including the groundwater level, more precipitation in the summer and thus lower subgrade stiffness. In
maintenance frequency, and traffic are assumed to be have repeated the training data, the highest groundwater level is usually in the summer
patterns, although these factors could possibly change in the future, e.g., months (June, July, and August) and April. There is also secondary
future demographic changes can change the traffic demand of a certain peaks, likely due to the spring thaw weakening and the recovery period
region. As this study is focused on the net impacts of climate change on thereafter (Fig. 5). The high groundwater level in April may be caused
pavements, keeping maintenance frequency and traffic pattern repeti­ by thawing. BC and WSG stiffness have similar results as the SG stiffness.
tive can help isolate the impacts from climate change. Future climate
change can also cause changes in the groundwater level, such as in
riverine or coastal regions (Knott et al., 2017). However, this study and
the investigated pavement is far from the impacts of a body of water and
it is assumed that the inland hydrological and hydraulic conditions will
not change significantly. Another assumption is that the pavement
structure, materials, and construction will be the same in the future.
Again, all these assumptions are necessary to assess the net impacts of
climate change on pavements.

5.2. Predicting layer stiffness under different climate conditions

To predict the layer stiffness in each layer for each of the 20-year
periods, the baseline and future daily maximum temperature is aver­
aged and precipitation is summed into monthly values, which are then
applied as input to the trained ANN model. Fig. 5 is an example showing
the stiffness prediction results for the 2020–2039 future climate
(RCP8.5) with three different climate models compared with the base­ Fig. 5. Predicted AC stiffness (a) and SG stiffness (b) with the non-linear model
line results. for the three climate models and the higher RCP8.5 scenario (1000 ksi ≈
In general, the predicted AC stiffness showed seasonal variability 6900 MPa).

6
Y. Qiao et al.
The predicted stiffness depends on the climate model used, especially
so in winter and summer. The average changes in layer stiffness for each
of the 20-year periods compared to the baseline, listed in Table 2, shows
that the average layer stiffness will decrease with time in the future for
all climate models and future scenarios. For the AC layer, the reduction
is likely due to the increases in temperature, which will decrease AC
stiffness on average. For the SG layer, the reduction may be caused by
warmer winter, which will reduce the length of the frozen periods (when
SG stiffness is at maximum) and perhaps extends thawing periods.
Although precipitation, in general, is projected to decrease with the
CCMS4.1 model and increase with GFDL-ESM2G.1 and MIROC-ESM.1
model, it does not seem to impact the results, likely because precipita­
tion appears to be much less influential than temperature. This point has
also been supported by other studies (e.g. Qiao et al., 2013).
5.3. Predicting the service life
The calculated reduction of stiffness in the future is the greatest with
the MIROC-ESM.1 model, which shows the largest increase in projected
temperature, followed by CCSM4.1 and then GDFL-ESM2G.1. For the
low emission scenario, the AC stiffness does not always increase from
one time period to the next. This may be caused by the temperature
trend not continuously increasing under the low emission scenario.
With the predicted layer stiffness, this study required 8800 runs of
the KenLayer program (with stiffness predicted from 3 climate models*3
emission scenarios*4 periods*20 year *12 months +20 year*12 months
for baseline = 8800) to calculate the critical strains. A batch script was
written to run KenLayer multiple times. Finally, the damage and service
lives are calculated using Eqs. (6)–(8). The reduced service life
compared to the baseline is shown in Fig. 6.
In all cases, the service life is controlled by rutting, i.e. rutting
induced damage is always greater than damage caused by fatigue. For
climate projected by CCSM4.1 and MIROC-ESM.1, the service life is
predicted to decrease with a greater reduction for MIROC-ESM.1, mainly
because the temperature increase projected by MIROC-ESM.1 generally
is greater. Results obtained using the GFDL-ESM2G.1 model show that
no reduction in service life are projected to occur for the low emission
scenario. In fact, the damage under baseline climate does not exceed
100% so there is “residual” service life that is neglected, and the baseline
service life is “forced” to be 20 years. Although the damage will accu­
mulate faster, the mild changes in climate by GFDL-ESM2G.1 still
maintain the terminal damage below the 100% over the 20-year period
and the service life is “forced” to be 20 years again. The service life was
Table 2
Long-termed reduction of 20-year average layer stiffness.
7
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (xxxx) xxx
found to decrease only after 2040–2059 or in the high emission scenario
when changes in climate are great enough to cause 100% damage within
20 years.
For the 2020–2039 period, the reduction in service life will be less
than 1 year, regardless of the choice of climate model or emission sce­
nario. This indicates that changes in climate between 2020 and 2039 are
not significant enough to change the service life and thus the pavements
will have almost identical durability as the baseline. The impact of
climate change is predicted to become more and more significant with
time, with a significant reduction in service life toward the end of the
century (up to 22% for the high emission scenario, MIROC-ESM.1
model, 2080–2099). This suggests that climate change will have negli­
gible impacts on pavement constructed within the next two decades.
However, much greater reduction in pavement service life will occur by
the second half of this century (e.g. 2060–2079 and 2080–2099), by
which time proper climate adaptation measures must be undertaken.
6. Uncertainties
Although comprehensive, various uncertainties may influence the
results of this study. Firstly, the future climate itself remains uncertain
(IPCC, 2014). This type of uncertainty is dealt with in this study by
adopting a range of RCP scenarios. Secondly, there are uncertainties in
the projections simulated by different climate models resulting in dif­
ferences in the pavements’ climate impact calculated for each individual
climate model. The model uncertainty is dealt with by including mul­
tiple climate models in the study that span the range of climate sensi­
tivity (CCSM4.1, GFDL-ESM2g.1, and MIROC-ESM.1, IPCC, 2014) and
this study shows that it is important to consider different and reliable
climate models when assessing the impacts of climate change on pave­
ments. Thirdly, it is commonly accepted that FWD measurements
embrace uncertainties so that back-calculated layer stiffness may not
always be accurate (Bruinsma et al., 2017; Appea, 2013). The stiffness
prediction using linear/nonlinear regression analysis may help to reduce
such uncertainties. An important future study will be to analyze which
type of uncertainty has the greatest influence on the results.
7. Conclusions
This research examines impacts of climate change on pavement
service life by applying a data-driven methodology to train linear or non-
linear regression models in order to analyze the relationship among
various inputs (daily maximum air temperature, precipitation,
Y. Qiao et al.
Fig. 6. Predicted service life reduction.
groundwater level, maintenance history and traffic) and pavement layer
stiffness. Two different regression models were used to analyze the
relationship: 1) a linear regression model and 2) a non-linear Artificial
Neural Network (ANN) regression model). When predicting the pave­
ment stiffness, the non-linear ANN regression model showed a better fit
compared to a linear model, although the advantage is almost negligible.
Therefore, one may select the linear model as opposed to the non-linear
model for convenience, without losing significant prediction accuracy.
Output from three downscaled CMIP5 climate models was used to pre­
dict pavement layer stiffness for four future 20-year periods and three
future greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. The methodology allows
the reduction in pavement service life due to changes in climate to be
estimated using pavement modeling and damage transfer functions. A
case study is performed on an LTPP section in Minnesota and the
following conclusions can be drawn from this study:
• Pavement stiffness will have a 1–22% reduction in future climate due
to deterioration from changes in climatic factors. In asphalt layers,
the reduction is mainly due to increases in temperature. In granular
layers and subgrade, it can be mainly caused by warm winter in cold
regions, where extended thawing periods can weaken these layers by
excessive moisture. The reduction in stiffness also depends on the
magnitude of the anticipated changes in climate.
• The stiffness reduction may not lead to significant pavement service
life decreases in the next two decades but will likely have a signifi­
cant impact in the second half of the century (e.g. up to 10%–20%
reduction). Climate adaptation is therefore needed to address stiff­
ness reduction in the future.
• We recommend that pavement monitoring using FWD testing be
carried out more frequently, particularly after an extreme event oc­
curs such as a heat wave, extreme precipitation, high groundwater
level, or flooding. With more data (particularly these extreme
values), the calibrated regression models may better predict pave­
ment stiffness under extreme climate loading, which will likely occur
more frequently in the future.
8
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (xxxx) xxx
• Monitoring data including layer moisture and groundwater level
need to be incorporated into FWD testing if possible, in supplement
to temperature measurements.
• The choice of climate model and greenhouse gas concentration sce­
nario was shown to have a significant impact on the predicted layer
stiffness, suggesting that a majority of the uncertainty in the results
stems from differences in climate models and uncertainty in future
societal growth and energy sources and demands, so including more
climate models will better capture the range in climate model
uncertainty.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Yaning Qiao: Conceptualization, Methodology, Visualization,
Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing. Yang Zhang:
Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing - original draft, Writing - re­
view & editing. Yuefeng Zhu: Validation, Writing - review & editing.
Trent Lemkus: Formal analysis, Software. Anne M.K. Stoner: Writing -
review & editing. Jizhe Zhang: Conceptualization, Resources. Yuan­
long Cui: Conceptualization, Resources.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the research funding supported by the
Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2020QN13).
In addition, we acknowledge various platforms for freely sharing the
data used in this research, including: The climatic data from the World
Climate Research Programme (https://cmip.llnl.gov/cmip5/), and
Pavement data from the Long-Term Pavement Performance Program of
the US Federal Highway Administration (https://infopave.fhwa.dot.
gov).
Y. Qiao et al.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data related to this article can be found at htt
ps://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2020.102908.
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