Sustainability 12 05357 v2

sustainability
Article
Evaluation of Flood Risk Management in Japan
through a Recent Case
Juan Fan and Guangwei Huang *
School of Global Environmental Studies, Sophia University, Tokyo 102-8554, Japan; zhbfanjuan@126.com
* Correspondence: huanggwx@sophia.ac.jp; Tel.: +81-3-3238-4667

Received: 10 June 2020; Accepted: 29 June 2020; Published: 2 July 2020
Abstract: Major disasters cause loss of life and serious disturbance to livelihoods. Integrative and
innovative risk management is needed to reduce the impacts of such a disturbance. To pursue this,
a better understanding of the current level of disaster risk management is indispensible. Following
this line of thinking, the present work was intended to evaluate the various aspects of flood risk
management in Japan using a recent case of major flooding that occurred last autumn as a result of a
major storm. The focus was on the vulnerability assessment for the disaster-stricken area using various
kinds of information including topographic features, land use, flood warning system, evacuation
behavior, levee structure, insurance system and government support for recovery. Such an integrative
assessment shed new light on vulnerability-generating mechanisms. In particular, it found that the
disaster-stricken area has a high level of coping capacity related to flood disasters. However, the high
level of coping capacity hinders the reduction of susceptibility to the impacts of flooding. Based on
this finding, a new, simple but operational vulnerability management framework was proposed,
which may help decision-makers prioritize actions for vulnerability reduction.
Keywords: flood; vulnerability; susceptibility; coping capacity; Chikuma River
1. Introduction
Flood disasters have been present throughout human history, challenging our societies to respond
to unexpected disruptions. In recent decades, flood risk has been increasing worldwide due to
various reasons—from urbanization, population growth and concentration in big cities to climate
change [1–5]. The combined impact of urbanization and climate change has also been assessed,
although the understanding of this impact is still limited [6]. Under a changing environment, effective
flood risk management is extremely important to minimize the number of deaths and injuries caused
by a disaster, as well as the financial cost associated with disaster-induced property damage and losses.
To enable better flood risk management in the future, post-event auditing of how recent flood disasters
have been managed is indispensible for improving the effectiveness of flood management practices,
and this requires analyses from different perspectives and at different levels.
Japan is a country with a long history of flood disasters. The first recorded flood disaster in Japan
was in the mid 6th century, while the Isewan Typhoon in 1959 was responsible for the greatest flood
damage in modern Japanese history [7]. In 1896, the Japan River Law was established with the aim of
diverting flood waters to the sea as quickly as possible [8]. Then, the emphasis of flood control was
given to high water control via straightening river channels and levee construction. During the Showa
period (1926–1989), due to the difficulty in securing land for levee enhancement or upgrade, flood
control was dominated by the construction of multipurpose dams [9,10].
In response to an increase in flood risk caused by rapid urbanization in the 1960s and 1970s,
Comprehensive Flood Risk Management Measures (CFRMMs) were developed in 1980 to meet the
Sustainability 2020, 12, 5357; doi:10.3390/su12135357 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

Sustainability 2020, 12, 5357 2 of 17
Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 17
urgent
urgent need
need of ofriver
river improvement
improvement works
works andandrunoff
runoff management
management in in
watersheds
watersheds running
running through
through
rapidly urbanized areas
rapidly urbanized areas [10]. [10].
In In
2003,
2003, thethe
Act Act ononCountermeasures
Countermeasures against
against Flood
Flood Damage
Damage of of
Specified
Specified Rivers
Rivers Running
Running across
across
Cities was enacted for eight designated rivers [11]. It mandated that
Cities was enacted for eight designated rivers [11]. It mandated that river management authorities river management authorities
protect
protect urban
urbanareasareasand andtaketakeflood
flood management
management measures measures withinwithinandandbeyond
beyondeach eachwatershed.
watershed.The The law
law instructed the development of an integrated flood management
instructed the development of an integrated flood management plan between river and sewerage plan between river and sewerage
management
management authorities.
authorities. It led notnot
It led only onlyto tohorizontal
horizontal collaboration
collaboration between
between national
national andandlocal
local
governments, but also to lateral engagements, promoting the collaboration
governments, but also to lateral engagements, promoting the collaboration between the public and between the public and
private
private sectors.
sectors. TheThe lawlaw alsoalso
defined
definedrequirements
requirements for the
for private sector,
the private including
sector, includingthe installation of
the installation
stormwater storage and infiltration facilities, and the collaboration
of stormwater storage and infiltration facilities, and the collaboration with river and sewerage with river and sewerage
administrators
administrators onon planning
planning andandimplementing
implementing flood
floodmanagement
management measures
measures such
such as asthetheoperational
operational
rules of pumping stations.
rules of pumping stations.
Since
Sincethethe1980s,
1980s, Japan
Japan hashasrecognized
recognized thethe
importance
importance of of
combining
combining structural
structural and andnon-structural
non-structural
measures for effective flood risk management. In 2004, the
measures for effective flood risk management. In 2004, the Flood Fighting Act was amendedFlood Fighting Act was amended andand
went into effect on 1 July 2005 [12]. By this amendment, municipal
went into effect on 1 July 2005 [12]. By this amendment, municipal governments are responsible governments are responsible forfor
designating
designating inundation
inundation risk areas
risk areas along
along both
bothlarge
largeand and small
smallto to
medium-sized
medium-sized rivers
rivers within
withintheir
their
administrative boundaries. In addition, municipal governments
administrative boundaries. In addition, municipal governments are also required to inform their are also required to inform their
residents
residentsofof flood risk-relatedmatters
flood risk-related matters suchsuch as potential
as potential inundation
inundation depthsdepths and locations
and locations of
of evacuation
evacuation
shelters, by shelters, by distributing
distributing flood hazard floodmaps hazard
to all maps to allInresidents.
residents. this way, the In this way, theofpreparation
preparation flood hazard
of maps,
flood hazard maps, which was previously an administrative
which was previously an administrative effort, became the responsibility effort, became theofresponsibility
each municipality. of
each municipality.
In 2013, a 100 mm Inh2013, a 100plan
−1 safety mm was h safety
-1
issued plan
by was issued byofthe
the Ministry Ministry
Land, of Land, Infrastructure,
Infrastructure, Transport and
Transport and Tourism (MLIT) to tackle the increasing impacts
Tourism (MLIT) to tackle the increasing impacts of heavy rain in urban areas [13]. of heavy rain in urban
Theareas [13]. Thethe
plan clarifies
plan clarifies the responsibilities of local government and authority, the
responsibilities of local government and authority, the participation of residential communities and the participation of residential
communities
private sector, andand theflood
private sector, and flood
management measuresmanagement
to preventmeasures
inundation to prevent
in urbaninundation
and residentialin urban
areas.
and residential areas.
According to the Act on Special Measures concerning Urban Reconstruction amended in 2018 [14],
localAccording
governments to thecan Actdesignate
on Specialareas Measures concerningtoUrban
as vulnerable Reconstruction
disasters such as floods, amended in 2018
tsunamis and
[14], local governments can designate areas as vulnerable to disasters
storm surges and prohibit construction of residential buildings in disaster red zones. The case of such as floods, tsunamis and
storm
Shigasurges and prohibit
Prefecture’s land useconstruction
regulation and of residential
water-resistant buildings in disaster
architecture red zones. The
is a representative case of
example [15].
Shiga Prefecture’s land use regulation and water-resistant architecture
Furthermore, the 2018 amendment of the Act on Special Measures concerning Urban Reconstruction [16] is a representative example
[15].
alsoFurthermore, the 2018 of
promotes the relocation amendment
residents from of the Act on Special
disaster-prone areas toMeasures concerning
low risk areas, Urban in
as illustrated
Reconstruction
Figure 1. [16] also promotes the relocation of residents from disaster-prone areas to low risk
areas, as illustrated in Figure 1.
(a) Relocation (b) Setback

Figure 1. Promotion
Figure of resettlement
1. Promotion (modified
of resettlement based
(modified onon
based [16]).
[16]).
These
These developments
developments showshow clearly
clearlythat
thatthethe
institutional
institutionalsetting
setting forfor
flood risk
flood reduction
risk reduction bybyboth
both
structural
structuralandandnon-structural
non-structural measures
measures in in
Japan
Japanhas been
has well
been wellformulated.
formulated. However,
However, whether
whether these
these
efforts and
efforts andinitiatives lead
initiatives leadto to
a significant
a significant reduction
reduction ofof
flood
floodrisk is is
risk anan open
open question.
question. AtAtpresent, half
present, half
of of
Japan’s
Japan’spopulation
population andand 75%75%of of
itsits
total
totalassets
assetsareare
concentrated
concentrated in in
flood-prone
flood-prone areas.
areas.AA study
study byby
Huang
Huang [17] analyzed
[17] analyzed thethe
flood
floodfatality in in
fatality Japan
Japan from
from1930 to to
1930 2007 and
2007 anddetected
detecteda downward-shifting
a downward-shifting
point corresponding
point corresponding toto
thethe
60% 60%completion
completion of of
thethe
planned
plannedriver
riverimprovement
improvement works
worksforfor
flood control
flood control
across the nation. However, flood-induced economic loss in Japan showed a non-declining pattern.
across the nation. However, flood-induced economic loss in Japan showed a non-declining pattern.
Another study by Ushiyama [18], analyzing the flood fatality in Japan from 1968 to 2014, also revealed
a declining trend.
In 2019, Typhoon No. 19, also known as “Hagibis” (meaning “speed” in Tagalog), brought about
record-breaking rainfall across East Japan from 12 to 13 October 2019, causing widespread flooding in
a large number of locations including Tokyo, Chiba and Nagano prefectures. From Shizuoka, through
Kanagawa, Tokyo, Chiba, Saitama and even all the way up to Nagano, Iwate and Fukushima, more
than 7 million people were urged to evacuate. The half-day, one-day and two-day rainfalls brought by
Hagibis set records in 120, 103 and 72 locations, respectively, as revealed by Japan’s Meteorological
Agency [19]. In Hakone-machi, Kanagawa Prefecture, the two-day rainfall reached 1001 mm, which
was about 30% of the annual precipitation at this site. In Hagiwara village, Tokyo, the two-day rainfall
was 649 mm, equivalent to 40% of the annual precipitation. The air pressure at the center of the typhoon
had fallen by 77 Pa to 915 over the 24-h period, which can be considered as explosive intensification.
According to a report of the Cabinet Office, Japan [20], 104 people died and 381 were injured in
this disaster. There was also serious property damage caused by Hagibis. It was reported that 3308
houses were completely demolished, 30,024 were half damaged and 37,320 were partially affected.
Among them, 8129 homes were inundated above floor level. In total, levee breaches occurred at 142
locations in 74 rivers, in 7 prefectures.
In view of the scope and magnitude of the damage, the disaster caused by Hagibis can be used
to evaluate the effectiveness of flood management practices in Japan, in terms of investigating the
possible causes of its high vulnerability to flooding. Motivated by this way of thinking, the present
study conducted field surveys and multi-view analysis for flooding that occurred in Nagano City.
The field surveys included an engineering investigation of the levee structure, inundation depths,
shelter locations and residential house structures, and an interview survey on evacuation behavior and
information sharing among foreign residents in Nagano City at the time of emergency. The objective
was to analyze the main features of this flood event and identify the flood vulnerability still existing in
Japan, which is a society considered as being well prepared for disasters.
Vulnerability is a concept that originated from social sciences and evolved into a major framework
in risk science and management and related academic fields, with more than 25 definitions available in
the literature [21]. One of the widely known definitions is given by the United Nations Development
Program (UNDP) [22], which describes vulnerability as “a human condition or process resulting
from physical, social, economic and environmental factors, which determines the likelihood and scale
of damage from the impact of a given hazard”. Beyond the different vulnerability definitions, the
improvement of risk management requires a particular focus on the relationship between risk and
disaster. In our study, a step toward this achievement is given for the vulnerability assessment of
flood risk.
The main body of this paper is organized as follows: site and case studies description are given in
Section 2, while the results and discussion are given in Section 3, where a new framework proposal
for vulnerability management is proposed, according to relevant criticalities detected during the case
study analysis.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area

Nagano City is located in the Nagano Basin, in the central region of Japan, and surrounded by
mountains. Chikuma River, the longest and widest river in Japan, flows through the city, and the Sai
River and Asakawa River join the Chikuma River in the city. Figure 2 shows the watershed of the
Chikuma River. It is elongated from north to south and flows through three prefectures: Nagano,
Gunma and Niigata. As the waterway runs into Niigata Prefecture, it is renamed as Shinano River and
finally flows into the Japan Sea. The area of the basin is 11,900 km2 , and the population in the basin
households. It was one of the hardest hit areas in the disaster caused by Typhoon No. 19.
During the early morning of 13 October 2019, Typhoon No. 19 brought heavy rainfall to the city.
The daily precipitation was as high as 132 mm, exceeding the historical record. The heavy rainfall
caused a levee breach on the left bank of the Chikuma River in the Nagano City, allowing floodwaters
to inundate
Sustainability residential
2020, 12, 5357 areas, crop lands and business facilities. More than 360 residents in4 ofthe 17
Naganuma district, which is next to the breaching site, of whom around 200 were in a special nursing
care home, were stranded by flood waters and rescued by the Ground Self-Defense Force via
reaches about
helicopter. Two 2.9residents
million. Annual precipitation
of the district in the
lost their lifebasin is about
in this 900 448
disaster. mmha upstream,
of crop 2300
landsmm in
were
the middle stream and about 1800 mm downstream, respectively. The design flood
flooded, resulting in a 974,000,000 JPY (approximately 9 million USD) loss. In addition, ten rows of at the Kuiseke
gauging station is 4000 3 −1 3 s−1 after the Sai River joins the Chikuma River.
bullet trains parked in m
the sEastand increases
Japan to 7500
Railway Co.’smrailyard, located in the northeastern part of the
The mean annual discharge is 1.8 × 10 8 3
district, were inundated by atmuddy
the Kuiseke
water,gauging
with the station
consequence thatmallfor the period
flooded from
trains had1993 to
to be
1998, accounting
disposed of. for 11% of the mean annual discharge at the river mouth.
Figure 2. Watershed of the Chikuma River.

Figure 2. Watershed of the Chikuma River.
2.2. Methods
The total area of the city is 834.81 km2 , having a population of 370,632 and consisting of 160,625
households.
DisastersIt are
wassingular
one of the hardest hit
large-scale areasthat
events in the disaster
result causeddisruptions
in serious by TyphoonofNo. the19.
function of a
During the early morning of 13 October 2019, Typhoon No. 19 brought
community or society, with human and economic or environmental losses. Those losses may exceed heavy rainfall to the
city. The daily precipitation was as high as 132 mm, exceeding the historical
the community’s or society’s ability to absorb or cope with them, causing long-lasting impacts. record. The heavy
rainfall causeddisasters
Conceptually, a levee breach on the left
can be defined bank
as the of the of
product Chikuma
hazardsRiver in the Nagano
and vulnerability City, allowing
[23].
floodwaters to inundate residential areas, crop lands and business facilities. More than 360 residents
in the Naganuma district, which is Risk next= toHazard × Vulnerability
the breaching site, of whom around 200 were in a special (1)
nursing
Thiscare home, can
structure were
bestranded by flood
interpreted as thewaters andof
interplay rescued by theforce
an external Ground
and Self-Defense Forceand
an internal force, via
helicopter. Two residents of the district lost their life in this disaster. 448 ha of crop lands
the internal force can be described by the concept of vulnerability (although a general and unanimous were flooded,
resulting inofavulnerability
definition 974,000,000 JPY (approximately
remains 9 million
non-existent). USD) loss.
This study, In addition,
following ten rows
the works of bullet
of Turner et al.trains
[24],
parkedetinal.
Balica the[25]
East Japan
and Railway
Adger Co.’s railyard,
[26], adopts located
a definition of in the northeastern
vulnerability whichpart
can of
bethe district, were
mathematically
inundated as
expressed byfollows:
muddy water, with the consequence that all flooded trains had to be disposed of.
2.2. Methods ×
Vulnerabilty = (2)
Disasters are singular large-scale events that result in serious disruptions of the function of
a community or society, with human and economic or environmental losses. Those losses may
exceed the community’s or society’s ability to absorb or cope with them, causing long-lasting impacts.
Conceptually, disasters can be defined as the product of hazards and vulnerability [23].
Risk = Hazard × Vulnerability (1)
This structure can be interpreted as the interplay of an external force and an internal force, and
the internal force can be described by the concept of vulnerability (although a general and unanimous
definition of vulnerability remains non-existent). This study, following the works of Turner et al. [24],
Balica et al. [25] and Adger [26], adopts a definition of vulnerability which can be mathematically
expressed as follows:
Exposure × Susceptibility
Vulnerabilty = (2)
Coping Capacity
where exposure is defined as the degree, duration and extent to which a system is in contact with, or
subject to, perturbation. Susceptibility refers to the factors and attributes that make a community or
society more or less likely to be negatively affected by perturbation. Coping capacity is defined as the
ability to cope with, or absorb and adapt to, hazard impacts. It is the product of planned preparation
before a disaster, emergency response during the disaster and post-disaster reconstruction.
This study evaluates flood risk management in Japan through the lens of vulnerability assessment
for the Naganuma district. Four field surveys were conducted between November 2019 and January
2020. Unlike conventional qualitative studies, the methodology we employed for this study was to
combine social and engineering information, document analysis and a field survey, which made it a
hybrid type of research. For the engineering part, we investigated the geometric shape of the levee,
the vegetation on the levee, the levee’s construction history and the design standard at the breaching
site. We also conducted field work to investigate flood marks on residential houses, collected land
surface elevation and land use data in the disaster-stricken area from Advanced Land Observing
Satellite (ALOS) Research and Application Project, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency [27], and
received evacuation shelters locations from the Nagano City. The spatial resolutions for land surface
elevation and land use were 30 m and 10 m, respectively. Furthermore, in order to find out what
measures the business sector had taken for flood risk management, we surveyed the surrounding
area of the JR railyard for bullet trains, which was inundated and suffered a major economic loss.
Then, Geographic Information System (GIS) software ArcGIS Pro 2.3 was employed to map the
surface elevation distribution, land use, building distribution and shelters in the affected district.
The shelters were divided into those that actually functioned and those that malfunctioned. For
the social part, governmental and historical documents were analyzed to look into the history of
the district’s development and to examine the government support system for community recovery.
A particular attention was given to the assessment of agricultural practices in the region in relation to
disaster insurance systems in Japan. In addition, we conducted a questionnaire survey with a focus on
evacuation behavior and emergency information communication to non-Japanese residents. Since
many residents in the disaster-stricken area had not returned to their homes at the time of the survey,
random sampling was not feasible. Instead, a convenience sampling approach was employed, and 80
samples were obtained. Besides, we interviewed 11 local residents, chosen at random in a separate
field work, about the insurance they had. Based on the aforementioned information, the vulnerability
of the district to flooding was assessed qualitatively from three aspects: (1) exposure, (2) susceptibility
and (3) coping capacity. Particular attention was given to the interplay of the three components in
order to identify not just the district’s vulnerability to flooding but also the vulnerability-generating
mechanisms. Finally, the intention was to propose a new framework for vulnerability management,
which can be characterized as more operational than existent vulnerability frameworks. In short,
the methodology can be characterized as information mining, cross-sectoral data analysis and the
development of a conceptual model for better vulnerability management.
3. Results
3.1. Exposure and Susceptibility Assessment

According to historical records [28], the Naganuma district had been flooded several times from
the Edo period 1603–1868) to the Meiji period (1868–1912). The inundation depths of these flooding
events were marked on the pillar of the main hall of a temple near the levee breaching site, as shown in
Figure 3.
Sustainability
Sustainability2020,
2020,12,
12,xxFOR
FORPEER
PEERREVIEW
REVIEW 66ofof17
17
44
(m)
depth (m)
inundation depth
33
Historical inundation
22
Historical
11
00
1742
1742 1847
1847 1896
1896 1910
1910 1911
1911
Year
Year
Figure
Figure3.3.Historical
Historicalflood
floodwater
waterdepths
depthsat
ataatemple
templenear
nearthe
thebreaching
breachingsite.
breaching site.
site.
The
The design
Thedesign rainfall
designrainfall
rainfallfor for the
forthe Chikuma
theChikuma
ChikumaRiver River
Riverat at the
atthe Tategahana
theTategahana
Tategahanastationstation
stationisis 186
is186 mm/48
186mm/48
mm/48h, h, which
h,which
whichhas has
has
aaa1/100
1/100 probability
1/100probability
probabilityof of occurrence.
ofoccurrence.
occurrence.During During
DuringTyphoo Typhoo
TyphooNo. No.
No.19,19,the
19, thetwo-day
the two-day
two-daytotal totalrainfall
total rainfallwas
rainfall was193.7
was 193.7mm,
193.7 mm,
mm,
exceeding
exceeding
exceedingthe the design
thedesign rainfall
designrainfall
rainfallby by
by4%4% according
4%according
accordingto to data
todata
dataof of Japan’sMeteorological
ofJapan’s
Japan’s MeteorologicalAgency.
Meteorological Agency. Furthermore,
Agency.Furthermore,
Furthermore,
the
the maximum
the maximum
maximum 24 24 h rainfall
24 hh rainfall exceeded
rainfall exceeded historical
exceeded historical records
historical records
records by by 50%.
by 50%. Therefore,
50%. Therefore,
Therefore, the the rainfall
the rainfall brought
rainfall brought
brought by by
by
Typhoon
Typhoon No. 19
19 can
can be
be characterized
characterized as
as intensive
intensive
Typhoon No. 19 can be characterized as intensive heavy rainfall. heavy
heavy rainfall.
rainfall.
Figure
Figure444shows
Figure shows
showsthe the main
themain geographic
maingeographic characteristics
geographiccharacteristics
characteristicsof ofthe
of the district
thedistrict
districtas as well
aswell
wellas as
asanan
anoldold map
oldmapmapof of the
ofthethe
area.
area.
area.TheThe district
districtisis
Thedistrict surrounded
issurrounded
surroundedby by the
bythe Chikuma
theChikuma
ChikumaRiver River
Riverand and
andthethe Asakawa
theAsakawa
AsakawaRiver. River.
River.The The
Themap map
mapof of current
ofcurrent
current
landform
landform
landformshows showsthat thatthe
that theriver
the rivercourse
river course
course isisis
curved
curved
curved around
around
around thethe
breaching
the breaching
breaching site, although
site,
site, although
although only mildly
only
only so, and
mildly
mildly so,
so,
the
and district
and the is
the district located on
district isis located
locatedonthe concave
on the side
the concave
concave side of the river
side ofofthe bend.
the river Such
river bend. a
bend.Suchlandform
Suchaalandformmakes
landform makes this area
makes thisprone
thisarea
areato
flooding.
prone
prone to The map The
to flooding.
flooding. of
The the
map district
map of
of theabout
the districthalfabout
district aabout
century halfago,
half obtained
aa century
century ago,
ago,from the Geospatial
obtained
obtained from
from thetheInformation
Geospatial
Geospatial
Authority
Information of Japan
Authority [29], ofindicates
Japan that
[29], there
indicates werethatquite
there a number
were of
quite
Information Authority of Japan [29], indicates that there were quite a number of small waterways small
a numberwaterways
of small in the districtin
waterways in
in
the
the past
thedistrict that
districtin have
inthe
thepast now
pastthat been
thathave transformed
havenownowbeen into
beentransformed land.
transformedintoBecause
intoland.of the
land.Becauselandform,
Becauseof ofthe agriculture
thelandform, in this
landform,agriculture area
agriculture
had
in often
in this
this area
areabeen
hadaffected
had often
often been by flooding.
been affected
affected by In
by1897,
flooding.localIn
flooding. famers
In 1897,started
1897, local planting
local famers
famers appleplanting
started
started trees because
planting appleapple
apple trees
trees
cultivation
because
becauseapple has a higher
applecultivation
cultivationhas level of resistance
hasaahigher
higherlevel to
levelof flood damage
ofresistance
resistanceto compared
toflood
flooddamage to sericulture,
damagecompared
comparedto which was
tosericulture,
sericulture,the
dominant
which
which was wasbusiness
the
the dominantin thisbusiness
dominant area before
business in 1897.
in this
this areaThisbefore
area initiative
before 1897.can
1897. be evaluated
This
This initiative
initiative canas
can anbe adaption
be evaluated
evaluated measure
as
as anan
and
adaptionhas proven
measure to be
and successful.
has proven Overto the
be years,
successful. NaganoOver City
the has established
years,
adaption measure and has proven to be successful. Over the years, Nagano City has established its Nagano its
City reputation
has as
establisheda majorits
apple
reputation grower
reputation asaainmajor
as Japan,
major and grower
apple
apple the majority
grower in
inJapan, of residents
Japan, and
andthe in Naganuma
themajority
majority of districtin
ofresidents
residents are
in engaged in
Naganuma
Naganuma the apple
district
district are
are
business
engaged
engagedin in some
inthe
the way.
apple
apple From ain
business
business vulnerability
in some
someway. way.From pointaaof
From view, this initiative
vulnerability
vulnerability point
pointof ofreduced
view,
view,thisthisthe susceptibility
initiative
initiative reduced
reduced to
the
the impact of
susceptibility flooding,
to the since
impact apple
of trees
flooding, are more
since resistant
apple treesto flood
are more
the susceptibility to the impact of flooding, since apple trees are more resistant to flood waters and waters and
resistant provide
to flood a stable
waters and
and
good
provide
provide income
aastable to the
stable andcommunity
and good
goodincome
income during
to
tothethe normal
community
communityyears.during
duringnormal
normalyears.
years.
Figure
Figure4.4.Main
Mainlandform
landformfeatures
featuresof
ofthe
theNaganuma
Naganumadistrict
districtat
atpresent
presentand
andhalf
and halfaaacentury
half centuryago.
century ago.
ago.
Figure
Figure555shows
Figure shows the
showsthe flood
theflood hazard
floodhazard map
hazardmap prepared
mapprepared
preparedby by the
bythe Nagano
theNagano
NaganoCityCity government
Citygovernment
government[30],[30], indicating
[30],indicating
indicating
that
that the
thatthe projected
theprojected maximuminundation
projectedmaximum inundationdepth
inundation depthin
depth inNaganuma
in Naganumadistrict
Naganuma districtcould
district could
couldbe
beasas
be high
ashighasas
high 2020
as m.
20 m.Figure
m. Figure6
Figure
66 shows
shows the
the flood
flood water
water depth
depth distribution
distribution onon 13
13 October
October 2019,
2019, produced
produced by by the
the Geospatial
Geospatial
Information
InformationAuthority
AuthorityofofJapan
Japan(GSI),
(GSI),based
basedon
onsatellite
satelliteimages
images[31].
[31].Our
Ourfield
fieldsurvey
surveyon onflood
floodwater
water
shows the flood water depth distribution on 13 October 2019, produced by the Geospatial Information
Sustainability 2020, 12, x(GSI),
FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 17
Sustainability of
Authority Japan
2020, 12, x FOR based
PEER on satellite images [31]. Our field survey on flood water marks left
REVIEW 7 of on
17
the walls of residential houses revealed that the flood water depth in Hoyasu subdistrict, which is the
marks left on the walls of residential houses revealed that the flood water depth in Hoyasu subdistrict,
marks left on the walls
main residential area ofofNaganuma
residential houses
district,revealed that the
varied from 1 mflood
to 2.4water
m as depth
shownininHoyasu
Figure subdistrict,
6, which is
which is the main residential area of Naganuma district, varied from 1 m to 2.4 m as shown in Figure
which is the main
due partially to theresidential
backwater area of Naganuma
effects of buildings.district,
Thisvaried fromthe
validated 1m to 2.4
flood m as estimation
depth shown in Figure
of the
6, which is due partially to the backwater effects of buildings. This validated the flood depth
6,
GSI.which is due partially
By comparing the actualto flood
the backwater
water depth effects of buildings.
distribution This
with the validated
projected thewater
flood flooddepth
depth in
estimation of the GSI. By comparing the actual flood water depth distribution with the projected flood
estimation
the flood hazardof the GSI.
map,By it comparing
appears that the actual
the flood water
inundation area depth
matchesdistribution with the
the projection, projected
although the flood
water
water depth in the flood hazard map, it appears that the inundation area matches the projection,
water
depth depth
was lower in thethanflood
the hazard
projectedmap, it appears
possible that the
maximum inundation
value. areathat
This proves matches thehazard
the flood projection,
map
although the water depth was lower than the projected possible maximum value. This proves that
although
for this area the provided
water depth was lower
reliable than the
information on projected
high floodpossible maximum
risk zones. value.itThis
Meanwhile, alsoproves
serves that
as a
the flood hazard map for this area provided reliable information on high flood risk zones. Meanwhile,
the flood hazard
reminder maphazard
that flood for thismaps
area need
provided reliable
further information
improvement on highmore
to provide floodaccurate
risk zones. Meanwhile,
information on
it also serves as a reminder that flood hazard maps need further improvement to provide more
itinundation
also serves as a reminder
depths and thereby that flood hazard
facilitate maps need further improvement to provide more
risk management.
accurate information on inundation depths and thereby facilitate risk management.
accurate information on inundation depths and thereby facilitate risk management.
Red circles indicate where houses could be damaged by flood water

Red circles indicate where houses could be damaged by flood water
2 km
2 km
Figure 5. Flood hazard map of the Naganuma district [30].

Figure
Figure 5.
5. Flood
Floodhazard
hazardmap
mapof
ofthe
theNaganuma
Naganuma district
district [30].
[30].
Figure 6. Estimated inundation depth distribution on 13 October2019 [31] and flood marks obtained
Figure
Figure 6.
6. Estimated
Estimatedinundation
inundationdepth
depthdistribution
distributionon
on13
13October2019
October2019[31]
[31]and
and flood
flood marks
marks obtained
obtained
from the field survey.
By using the building inventory database of the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan [32],
By
By using
using the
thebuilding
buildinginventory
inventorydatabase
databaseof ofthe
theGeospatial
GeospatialInformation
InformationAuthority
Authorityof ofJapan
Japan[32],
[32],
the distribution of residential houses in Naganuma district was mapped and plotted together with
the
the distribution of residential
residentialhouses
housesininNaganuma
Naganumadistrict districtwas
was mapped
mapped and
and plotted
plotted together
together withwith
the
the spatial variation of the surface elevation in the district (Figure 7). Besides, the percentages of
the spatial
spatial variation
variation of theofsurface
the surface elevation
elevation in the district
in the district (Figure (Figure 7). Besides,
7). Besides, the percentages
the percentages of houses of
in
houses in different risk zones are also shown in Figure 7. It is clear that many houses were indeed
houses
differentinrisk
different riskalso
zones are zones are also
shown shown
in Figure 7. in
It isFigure 7. It many
clear that is clear that many
houses housesconstructed
were indeed were indeed in
constructed in relatively less dangerous locations. Such a data analysis revealed that the local
constructed
relatively less indangerous
relatively locations.
less dangerous
Such a locations.
data analysis Such a datathat
revealed analysis revealed
the local that has
community the taken
local
community has taken certain measures to reduce the degree of susceptibility to flooding.
community has taken
certain measures certain
to reduce themeasures
degree oftosusceptibility
reduce the degree of susceptibility to flooding.
to flooding.
In contrast to the residential areas, however, the JR railyard for bullet trains is situated in the
northeast part of the district, where the ground surface elevation is the lowest in the district. Our field
survey found that the protective measures at the front and back of the railyard are different, as shown
in Figure 8. At the front of the yard, facing the Chikuma River, the foundation was raised by about 2
in Figure 8. At the front of the yard, facing the Chikuma River, the foundation was raised by about 2
m, and trains can be seen from outside the yard. At the back, however, there is a 4-meter-high wall.
m, and trains can be seen from outside the yard. At the back, however, there is a 4-meter-high wall.
As can be seen from Figure 8, the Asakawa River (with its two tributaries) is closer to the back of the
railyard than the Chikuma River is to the front of the railyard. In 1983, the Asakawa River flooded
determinant of flood risk perception. Botzen et al. [34], through a survey of 1000 householders in The
Netherlands, showed geographical characteristics (distance from river and elevation relative to water
level) to be the main factor in shaping a respondent’s flood risk perception. Another study by Zhang
et al. [35] also showed that perceived personal risk of flood hazard was positively correlated with the
proximity
Sustainabilityto the12,
2020, hazard
5357 source. Therefore, the underestimation of the exposure to flooding from8 the
of 17
Chikuma River might be explained by such a cognitive effect.
Figure 7. Distribution of buildings in the inundated area and the percentage in different elevation zones.
Figure 7. Distribution of buildings in the inundated area and the percentage in different elevation
zones.
in Figure 8. At the front of the yard, facing the Chikuma River, the foundation was raised by about
2 m, and trains can be seen from outside the yard. At the back, however, there is a 4-meter-high wall.
and inundated an area of 248.5 ha, with 331 houses being flooded above floor level. Since the railyard
was constructed in the 1990s, it may be postulated that the high wall at the back of the railyard was
constructed to protect against flood waters from the Asakawa River. This suggests that the East Japan
Railway Co. had taken measures to reduce the exposure of its facility to flooding from the Asakawa
River. However, it may have underestimated the exposure to flooding from the Chikuma River.
According to the document archive of Nagano City, the local community supported the construction
of the high-speed Shinkansen railway line and associated facilities in the district but requested the
early construction of a dam in the upstream of the Asakawa River in 1993. In subsequent years, the
dialogues between the city office and the local community have been pretty much focused on the flood
risk imposed by the Asakawa River [33]. The fact that the local government and residents were more
concerned with the Asakawa River would have led the East Japan Railway Co. to pay more attention
to the Asakawa River than the Chikuma River in its flood risk management.
Figure 8. The position of JR railyard in relation to the Chikuma River and the Asakawa River, and
flood protection measures around the facility.
Figure 8. The position of JR railyard in relation to the Chikuma River and the
Asakawa River, characteristics
Geographical and flood protection measures
such as distance or around thetofacility.
proximity a hazard can be an important
determinant of flood risk perception. Botzen et al. [34], through a survey of 1000 householders in
The Netherlands, showed geographical characteristics (distance from river and elevation relative to
water level) to be the main factor in shaping a respondent’s flood risk perception. Another study by
Zhang et al. [35] also showed that perceived personal risk of flood hazard was positively correlated
Figure 8. The position of JR railyard in relation to the Chikuma River and the Asakawa River, and
with the proximity to the hazard source. Therefore, the underestimation of the exposure to flooding
flood protection measures around the facility.
from the Chikuma River might be explained by such a cognitive effect.
Although
Althoughthe theActActononSpecial
SpecialMeasures
Measuresconcerning
concerningUrban
UrbanReconstruction,
Reconstruction,amended
amendedin in2018
2018[36],
[36],
prohibits the construction of residential buildings in highly hazardous areas and
prohibits the construction of residential buildings in highly hazardous areas and promotes the promotes the relocation
ofrelocation
residencesofand hospitalsand
residences from disaster-prone
hospitals areas to low risk
from disaster-prone areas,
areas the law
to low riskdoes notthe
areas, target
law business
does not
operations in general. This may be considered a legal inadequacy as regards
target business operations in general. This may be considered a legal inadequacy as regards integrated watershed
management. Unless widely
integrated watershed targeted and
management. legally
Unless enforced,
widely the and
targeted clean-up of highly
legally risky
enforced, thezones would
clean-up of
be very difficult, if not impossible. Our investigation of the East Japan Railway Co.
highly risky zones would be very difficult, if not impossible. Our investigation of the East Japan also revealed that
the company
Railway Co. did
alsonot have any
revealed thatguideline relating
the company didtonot
thehave
emergency operation
any guideline of trains
relating to in
thethe railyard
emergency
during a disaster.
operation of trains in the railyard during a disaster.
Figure
Figure99shows
showsthe thewater
waterlevel
levelvariation
variationduring
duringthetheflood
floodatattwo
twogauge
gaugestations:
stations:Kuiseke,
Kuiseke,about
about
20 km upstream, and Tategahana, about 6 km downstream of the levee breaching
20 km upstream, and Tategahana, about 6 km downstream of the levee breaching site, respectively. site, respectively.
At
Atboth
bothlocations,
locations,thethewater
waterlevel
levelexceeded
exceededhistorical
historicalrecords.
records.While
Whilethe thehistorical
historicalhighest
highestwaterwaterlevel
level
atatthe Kuiseke gauging station occurred on 16 September 2013, the historical highest
the Kuiseke gauging station occurred on 16 September 2013, the historical highest at the at the Tategahana
gauging
Tategahana station was recorded
gauging station wason 19 July 2006.
recorded on 19 July 2006.
370
Water level (m T.P.)
360
Kuiseke
350 Tategahana
Historical Highest at Kuiseke
340 Historical Highest at Tategahana
330
320
01:00
06:00
11:00
16:00
21:00
02:00
07:00
12:00
17:00
22:00
03:00
08:00
13:00
18:00
23:00
Time from Oct. 12 to 14
Figure9.9. Water
Figure Waterlevel
levelvariations
variationsatatKuiseke
Kuisekeand
andTategahana
Tategahanastations
stationsduring
duringthe
theflood.
flood.
As
Asshown
shownin inFigure
Figure10,10,Tategahana
Tategahanaisisthe thenarrowest
narrowestpoint
pointofofthe
theriver
rivercourse
coursewithin
withinthe
theNagano
Nagano
Prefecture.
Prefecture. During a large flood event, such a significant contraction of the river’s width can causeaa
During a large flood event, such a significant contraction of the river’s width can cause
significant
significantbackwater
backwatereffect effecton
onthe
thewater
waterlevel
levelininthe
theupstream
upstreamreach.
reach.Preliminary
Preliminarysimulations
simulationsusing
using
HEC-RAS
HEC-RAS modeling system [37] indicated that Naganuma district is within the backwaterzone
modeling system [37] indicated that Naganuma district is within the backwater zonewhen
when
Sustainability
the 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 −1 10 of 17
theflow
flowdischarge
dischargeatatTategahana
Tategahanastation
stationisisassumed
assumedtotobebe7000
7000mm3s s−1..
― Main channel
Width (m)
Naganuma
Tategahana
Distance from the river mouth

Figure 10. Channel width change along the Chikuma River.
For the river reaches within Nagano City, a large portion of the floodplains are used as orchards,
mainly of apple trees, as shown in Figure 11. It is well documented that the presence of vegetation
on floodplains may affect channel conveyance, because it increases the channel roughness coefficient,
on floodplains may affect channel conveyance, because it increases the channel roughness coefficient,
reduces the cross-sectional area and lowers channel conveyance [38–43]. For the river cross section at
reduces the cross-sectional area and lowers channel conveyance [38–43]. For the river cross section
the breaching site, the ratio of the width of the vegetated zone to the total channel width is about 0.5,
at the breaching site, the ratio of the width of the vegetated zone to the total channel width is about
according to our field survey. A laboratory experiment showed that when the ratio is 0.5, the
conveyance could be reduced by 20% [44]. A recent study [45] indicated that peak flood stages could
be decreased by 13–34 cm after the clearance of invasive plants. From the viewpoint of flood risk
management, vegetation developed on floodplains due to human activity should be removed or
managed properly to ensure the safe passage of floodwater. However, an issue in Nagano City is that
these floodplains are owned by farmers, and fruit cultivation on floodplains has become a major
on floodplains
Sustainability 2020, may affect channel conveyance, because it increases the channel roughness coefficient,
12, 5357 10 of 17
reduces the cross-sectional area and lowers channel conveyance [38–43]. For the river cross section at
the breaching site, the ratio of the width of the vegetated zone to the total channel width is about 0.5,
0.5, according
according to ourto our
fieldfield survey.
survey. A laboratory
A laboratory experiment
experiment showed
showed thatwhen
that whenthetheratio
ratioisis 0.5,
0.5, the
the
conveyance could be reduced by 20% [44]. A recent study [45] indicated that
conveyance could be reduced by 20% [44]. A recent study [45] indicated that peak flood stages could peak flood stages could
be decreased
be decreased by by 13–34
13–34 cm cm after
after the
the clearance
clearance ofof invasive
invasive plants. From the
plants. From the viewpoint
viewpoint ofof flood
flood risk
risk
management, vegetation developed on floodplains due to human activity
management, vegetation developed on floodplains due to human activity should be removed or should be removed or
managed properly to ensure the safe passage of floodwater. However, an
managed properly to ensure the safe passage of floodwater. However, an issue in Nagano City is thatissue in Nagano City is
that these
these floodplains
floodplains are are owned
owned by by farmers,
farmers, and
and fruit
fruit cultivationononfloodplains
cultivation floodplainshas hasbecome
become aa major
major
source of income for the local population. Therefore, the Japanese government
source of income for the local population. Therefore, the Japanese government cannot simply order cannot simply order
agricultural activity
agricultural activity on on the
the floodplains
floodplains to to be
be stopped. Consequently, the
stopped. Consequently, the combination
combination of of possible
possible
backwater due to channel width contraction and vegetation effects may
backwater due to channel width contraction and vegetation effects may have increased the have increased the susceptibility
of Naganuma of
susceptibility district
Naganumato flooding.
district to flooding.
Figure
Figure 11.
11. Apple
Apple trees
trees on
on the
the floodplains
floodplains of
of the
the Chikuma
Chikuma River.
River.
The level of vulnerability is highly dependent upon the economic status of individuals, individuals,
communities and nations. The poor are usually more vulnerable to disasters because theythey
communities and nations. The poor are usually more vulnerable to disasters because lacklack
the
the resources
resources to protect
to protect themselves
themselves andand to recover
to recover fromfrom disasters.
disasters. Previous
Previous studies
studies havehave highlighted
highlighted that
thatimpact
the the impact of floods
of floods variesvaries by social
by social class,class, not only
not only duringduring the pre-impact
the pre-impact and and response
response phasesphases
of a
of a flood event but also during the recovery and rebuilding processes
flood event but also during the recovery and rebuilding processes [46]. Even in a mature and well- [46]. Even in a mature and
well-organized
organized society society
such assuch as Japan,
Japan, a gooda household
good householdincomeincome is a prerequisite
is a prerequisite for a person
for a person to be ableto be
to
able after
say, to say, after a disaster,
a disaster, “justthe
“just clear clear the rubble
rubble and I can andtake
I can take
care of care of reconstruction
reconstruction on my on own”.my Inown”.
the
In the Nagano
Nagano case, farming
case, farming on floodplains
on floodplains provides provides
the localthe local population
population with aand
with a stable stable
good and good
income,
income, contributing
contributing to the enhancement
to the enhancement of coping of coping
capacity,capacity,
but may butalso
mayincrease
also increase the possibility
the possibility of
of river
river channel overflow. Therefore, this study presents a case in which
channel overflow. Therefore, this study presents a case in which economic activity increases the economic activity increases
the financial
financial capacity
capacity of the
of the local
local community
community to to dealwith
deal withdisasters
disastersbut butincreases
increasesits its susceptibility
susceptibility to
hazard at the same time. Such a linkage between hazard susceptibility and coping capacity has not
previously been addressed. In addition, trees in the river channel may be uprooted and transported
downstream during
downstream duringaaflood.
flood.AnyAnyaccumulation
accumulation of of
driftwood
driftwood at, at,
for for
example,
example,a bridge downstream
a bridge downstream may
then cause
may overflow
then cause due todue
overflow flowtoblockage, as wellasaswell
flow blockage, damage to the bridge.
as damage Such a Such
to the bridge. problem has indeed
a problem has
happened
indeed frequently
happened in Japanese
frequently inrivers [47,48].
Japanese This [47,48].
rivers highlights Thisthehighlights
possibility thatthe the mismanagement
possibility that the
of vegetation on floodplains
mismanagement of vegetation mayon not only increase
floodplains may thenot
vulnerability
only increase to flooding at specificto
the vulnerability locations,
floodingbutat
also increase the vulnerability to flooding at downstream sites due to the
specific locations, but also increase the vulnerability to flooding at downstream sites due to the accumulation of driftwood,
or at upstream of
accumulation sites due to theor
driftwood, backwater
at upstream effectsites
of vegetation.
due to the Asbackwater
vegetation effect
on floodplains
of vegetation.is a major
As
issue in integrated river management, new and innovative management practices should be explored
to achieve a win-win solution.
The levee in Naganuma district was constructed in 1984, and reinforcement work to expand the
width of the levee to 14 m was started in 2007 and completed in 2016. The work was designed to
resist a 100-year flood. The reinforced levee is 4.37 km-long, has 600 cherry trees and is called the
Sakura levee, as sketched in Figure 12. There are indeed many so-called Sakura levees across Japan.
They are good for the riparian landscape and serve as a place of relaxation for visitors. However, they
present a safety concern, because the presence of the trees’ root systems inside the levee can reduce its
strength [49]. Therefore, on normal days, Sakura levees can reduce the stress of residents, but under
extreme weather conditions, the presence of Sakura trees on a levee might increase the exposure of
local residents to a flood disaster.
Sakura levee, as sketched in Figure 12. There are indeed many so-called Sakura levees across Japan.
They are good for the riparian landscape and serve as a place of relaxation for visitors. However, they
present a safety concern, because the presence of the trees’ root systems inside the levee can reduce
its strength [49]. Therefore, on normal days, Sakura levees can reduce the stress of residents, but
under extreme
Sustainability weather
2020, 12, 5357 conditions, the presence of Sakura trees on a levee might increase the
11 of 17
exposure of local residents to a flood disaster.
Figure 12.
Figure The levee
12. The levee structure
structure in
in the
the Naganuma
Naganuma district.
district.
3.2. Assessment of Coping Capacity

3.2. Assessment of Coping Capacity
The majority of residents in Naganuma district are engaged in agricultural businesses, so the
The majority of residents in Naganuma district are engaged in agricultural businesses, so the
potential for crop damage by flooding is a critical factor in their lives. Therefore, how the impact
potential for crop damage by flooding is a critical factor in their lives. Therefore, how the impact of
of crops and property damage can be reduced is a very important part of the coping capacity of an
crops and property damage can be reduced is a very important part of the coping capacity of an
agriculture-centered community. Among 11 local residents interviewed, ten of them have agricultural
agriculture-centered community. Among 11 local residents interviewed, ten of them have
insurance of one type or another. The one resident without insurance was a retailer, not engaged in the
agricultural insurance of one type or another. The one resident without insurance was a retailer, not
agricultural business. Currently, Japan has three types of insurance in the agricultural sector. Japan’s
engaged in the agricultural business. Currently, Japan has three types of insurance in the agricultural
Agricultural Insurance scheme, known as NOSAI [50], is provided by National Agricultural Mutual
sector. Japan’s Agricultural Insurance scheme, known as NOSAI [50], is provided by National
Relief (AMR) Associations or municipal governments, in which liabilities by the AMR Associations
Agricultural Mutual Relief (AMR) Associations or municipal governments, in which liabilities by the
and the municipal governments are reinsured by their prefectural federation, and the federations’
AMR Associations and the municipal governments are reinsured by their prefectural federation, and
liabilities
the are further
federations’ re-reinsured
liabilities are further by the national government.
re-reinsured by the national Under this insurance
government. Under scheme, not just
this insurance
crops but also residential houses can be insured. From 2019, the
scheme, not just crops but also residential houses can be insured. From 2019, the National National Agricultural Insurance
Association started
Agricultural Insurancea newAssociation
revenue insurancestartedprogram
a new [51].
revenueUnder this program,
insurance programthree[51].
typesUnder
of revenue
this
insurance models are available: crop-based revenue, combined-crop revenue
program, three types of revenue insurance models are available: crop-based revenue, combined-crop (rice/wheat/soybeans)
and total(rice/wheat/soybeans)
revenue farm revenue. By joining andthis revenue
total insurance,By
farm revenue. 80% of a farmer’s
joining income
this revenue can be guaranteed
insurance, 80% of a
when hitincome
farmer’s by a natural
can be disaster.
guaranteed It alsowhen
applies hit to
bythe income disaster.
a natural reductionIt due
alsotoapplies
the 2020 to coronavirus
the income
outbreak. due
reduction In addition,
to the 2020there is a so-called
coronavirus JA insurance
outbreak. system,
In addition, runisbya the
there National
so-called Mutual Insurance
JA insurance system,
Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives [52]. For the NOSAI and revenue
run by the National Mutual Insurance Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives [52]. For the NOSAI insurance programs, 50% of
the premium is shouldered by the national government, to reduce the burden
and revenue insurance programs, 50% of the premium is shouldered by the national government, to on farmers. In addition,
Naganothe
reduce City has provided
burden financial
on farmers. support Nagano
In addition, to victims via has
City the distribution of reliefsupport
provided financial money, paying
to victimsfor
the the
via costdistribution
of demolishing severely
of relief money,damaged
paying houses,
for thereducing property tax, severely
cost of demolishing and so forth.
damaged houses,
In addition to insurance,
reducing property tax, and so forth. Japan has the Extreme Disaster Act, established in 1962 [53]. In the event
of a major disaster
In addition to that meets certain
insurance, Japan has criteria, disaster-stricken
the Extreme Disaster regions will be designated
Act, established under
in 1962 [53]. the
In the
said law, and special measures will be implemented to provide subsidies from
event of a major disaster that meets certain criteria, disaster-stricken regions will be designated under central government
for the
the saidpost-disaster
law, and specialrecoverymeasures
of public will
infrastructure,
be implementedsuch as roads, and joint
to provide facilities
subsidies of business
from central
cooperatives, such as irrigation channels.
government for the post-disaster recovery of public infrastructure, such as roads, and joint facilities
After the
of business Great East Japan
cooperatives, such as earthquake
irrigation(11 March 2011), Japan established the Large-Scale Disaster
channels.
Recovery
After the Great East Japan earthquake (11 area
Act in 2013 [54], which gives a disaster March more generous
2011), Japan financial
established support and makes
the Large-Scale
the support
Disaster process
Recovery faster.
Act in 2013For[54],
the flood
whichdisasters caused area
gives a disaster by Typhoon No. 19 across
more generous financialJapan, bothand
support the
Extreme Disaster Act and the Large-Scale Disaster Recovery Act were applied.
makes the support process faster. For the flood disasters caused by Typhoon No. 19 across Japan,
both Putting the aforementioned
the Extreme Disaster Act andinformation
the Large-Scale together, there
Disaster are at least
Recovery Act three
were insurance
applied. options for
farmers in Japan: NOSAI, revenue insurance and JA insurance. More importantly, when a major
disaster occurs, there will be great relief aid from the central government guaranteed by law.
Therefore, the financial capacity of local communities in the disaster-stricken area for rebuilding
can be considered very high. Nevertheless, field surveys and interviews with the local residents two
months after the disaster found that the recovery process was in fact slow because most of the destroyed
houses were still with little repair. One reason for this is that Typhoon No. 19 caused flood disasters
in many regions in Japan, so there was high demand for carpenters for wooden house construction
and staff for disinfection and sterilization. Furthermore, manpower for debris removal was not
sufficient, even though many volunteers came to help. According to a report by the Nagano City
government, the debris removal rates were 94% in residential areas and 84% in farmlands, respectively,
by April 18, more than five months after the disaster. Based on these facts, the coping capacity of
the community can be characterized as being financially sufficient but insufficient in terms of human
resources for reconstruction.
Another important aspect of coping capacity is the warning system. Japan has a good flood
warning system, consisting of five levels, as shown in Table 1 [55]. The aim of the system is to save
lives by clearly distinguishing between levels of danger, so that individuals can prepare for evacuation
and promptly seek refuge in the event of a natural disaster.
Table 1. Flood warning system of Japan.
Warning Level Evacuation Information Meteorological Information Advised Action

1 Early advisory Be in a state of readiness
2 Heavy rain/flooding advisory Verify evacuation routes
Evacuate elderly and other
3 Evacuation preparation Heavy rain/flooding warning
persons requiring assistance
Evacuation
4 Landslide warning Full evacuation
orders/advisories
Take optimal measures to
5 Disaster-level Heavy rain emergency warning
save lives
Following meteorological information, the Nagano City government issued an evacuation advisory
at 18:00 on 12 October 2019 and then raised it to the evacuation order at 23:40. There are a number of
CCTV cameras installed along the river course by the Chikuma River Office, with one of them close to
the breaching site. The video images recorded by this camera showed that the overflow in the Hoyasu
subdistrict occurred around 01:00, and that the levee collapsed at 05:30, on 13 October 2019. Therefore,
there was a one-hour lead time for residents to evacuate before being hit by flood waters. Nevertheless,
about 1000 residents did not evacuate in time and were later rescued, according to our interview with
Nagano City officials. Among these 1000, 287 were rescued from an intensive-care nursing home for
the elderly by the Japan Self-Defense Force. When the staff in the nursing home received the evacuation
advisory at 18:00, on 12 October 2019, they moved all residents to the second floor. However, they did
not follow the evacuation order issued at 23:40 of the same day, because the number of staff was only
around 10, and they were unable to move all 287 residents out of the facility. Instead, they moved
everyone to the third floor at 07:00 a.m. on 13 October 2019 and waited to be rescued.
An issue in relation to evacuation is whether or not designated evacuation shelters are safe.
Field surveys revealed that some shelters shown on the flood hazard map for the disaster area failed
to function because they were also inundated. Shelters in Naganuma district that functioned and
malfunctioned were mapped in Figure 13. As can be seen from this map, all shelters close to residential
areas failed. We interviewed more than 80 residents in the Hoyasu subdistrict, and one of the questions
asked was about how they evacuated. Among those who evacuated by themselves, 100% used cars for
evacuation. In principle, evacuees should walk to shelters according to the guideline of evacuation
set by the Japanese government. Nevertheless, the use of cars in the Hoyasu district is justifiable,
given the 38.2% aging rate in the district and the distance to functioning shelters. In Suzaka City,
Nagona Prefecture, which was also inundated by flood waters from the Chikuma River during the
same typhoon, our interviews with local residents found that some residents evacuated to shelters
on foot, and their cars left at home were damaged by flood waters, while those who relied on the
cars for evacuation did not suffer car damage. This suggests that the use of cars for evacuation in
non-urbanized areas with high aging rates may be given, priority, and the administration should
provide residents with information about driving evacuation routes.
In Suzaka City, Nagona Prefecture, which was also inundated by flood waters from the Chikuma
River during the same typhoon, our interviews with local residents found that some residents
evacuated to shelters on foot, and their cars left at home were damaged by flood waters, while those
who relied on the cars for evacuation did not suffer car damage. This suggests that the use of cars for
evacuation2020,
Sustainability in 12,non-urbanized
5357 areas with high aging rates may be given, priority, and 13 ofthe
17
administration should provide residents with information about driving evacuation routes.
Shelters used
Welfare facilities
Shelters shown on flood

hazard map but failed to
function on Oct. 13
2 km
Figure 13. Shelters that failed to function on 13 October 2019.

Figure 13. Shelters that failed to function on 13 October 2019.
InNaganuma
In Naganumadistrict,
district,local
localresidents
residentsestablished
establishedaaSelf-Governing
Self-Governing Council Council in in2009
2009for fordisaster
disaster
management [56]. A major duty of the council is disaster management.
management [56]. A major duty of the council is disaster management. In 2015, it issued a 30-page In 2015, it issued a 30-page
longevacuation
long evacuationrule rule book
book for for
the the community
community and distributed
and distributed it to allitfamilies
to all families in the Itdistrict.
in the district. containsIt
contains various kinds of information from hazard maps for different
various kinds of information from hazard maps for different disasters, evacuation routes, historical disasters, evacuation routes,
historical
flood waterflood
depths water depths stations.
and logistic and logistic stations.
According According
to the evacuation to therule evacuation rule book,will
book, the community the
monitor the changes in the water level of the Chikuma River at a gauging station 6 km downstream of6
community will monitor the changes in the water level of the Chikuma River at a gauging station
kmdistrict.
the downstreamDuring ofathe district.
flood, During
the time for thea flood,
waterthe time for
to reach the water
dangerous to reach
levels, dangerous
as specified levels,
by the as
river
specifiedofbyJapan,
authority the river authority
is estimated of on
based Japan, is estimated
the real-time rate ofbased
wateron theincrease
level real-time rategauging
at the of water level
station.
increase at the gauging station. An evacuation warning can then
An evacuation warning can then be issued 4 h before a projected emergency may occur. An evacuation be issued 4 h before a projected
emergency
drill may occur.by
is even conducted Anthe evacuation
Self-Governingdrill isCouncil
even conducted
every year.bySuch the Self-Governing
community-based Council every
emergency
year. Such community-based
preparedness is unique and canemergencybe considered preparedness
to be of a high is unique
level in and can be considered to be of a
Japan.
highOnlevel in Japan.
12 October 2019, the council followed their plans and issued the evacuation warning at 17:45,
15 min Onahead
12 October
of the2019,
warning the council
issued followed
by Nagano their
City.plans and issued
However, the evacuation
a large number of warning
residentsatliving
17:45,
15 mina ahead
within certainof the warning
distance issued
of the river by Nagano
course City. However,
did not evacuate a largeAccording
as instructed. number of toresidents living
our interviews,
within a certain distance of the river course did not evacuate as
one family immediately followed the warning and went to a shelter. After staying in the shelter for instructed. According to our
a
interviews,
few one family
hours without immediately
receiving any update followed
on thetheflood
warning and went
situation, they to a shelter.
thought thatAfter staying
flooding wasinnot
the
shelterto for
going a few
happen and hours without
left the shelter.receiving
Right after anytheyupdate on the
returned home, floodfloodsituation,
waters hit they thought
their home and that
flooding was not going to happen and left the shelter. Right after they
they were trapped inside until they could be rescued. Therefore, there are two lessons learned from returned home, flood waters
hit their
this home
disaster. Oneand they awere
is that hightrapped inside until they
level of preparedness does could be rescued.
not guarantee Therefore,
a high level of there are two
emergency
lessons learned from this disaster. One is that a high level of preparedness
response. Another is that an early warning could cause evacuees to run out of patience if information does not guarantee a high
level of emergency response. Another is that an early warning
is not updated in a timely manner. In light of the above information, the coping capacity of could cause evacuees to run outthe
of
patience if information
community is not updated
can also be characterized in a timely
as being very highmanner.
in termsIn light of the abovebut
of preparedness, information,
questionable the
coping capacity of the community can also
with regard to the implementation of the emergency response plan. be characterized as being very high in terms of
preparedness, but questionable with regard to the implementation of the emergency response plan.
4. Discussion of a New Framework
The findings of the present study revealed that susceptibility can be divided into two components:
(1) susceptibility to direct life loss and injury due to a disaster event, and (2) susceptibility to
non-life (or other-than-casualty) impacts of a disaster, both tangible—such as economic loss—and
non-tangible—such as post-disaster health. Besides, susceptibility is not independent of coping
capacity, and each of its components could be related to different aspects of coping capacity. In previous
studies, although coping capacity and susceptibility were implicitly connected according to their
definitions and frameworks, how the enhancement of coping capacity would affect susceptibility has
not been explicitly studied. Some previously proposed frameworks even disconnected susceptibility
from coping capacity.
Preparedness means such as flood hazard maps and evacuation warning systems, which are part
of coping capacity, may reduce flood susceptibility to life loss and injury. However, they may not
directly reduce susceptibility to non-life impacts. Meanwhile, the strength for absorbing property
connected according to their definitions and frameworks, how the enhancement of coping capacity
would affect susceptibility has not been explicitly studied. Some previously proposed frameworks
even disconnected susceptibility from coping capacity.
Preparedness means such as flood hazard maps and evacuation warning systems, which are
Sustainability
part of coping 2020, 12, 5357
capacity, may reduce flood susceptibility to life loss and injury. However, they 14may
of 17
not directly reduce susceptibility to non-life impacts. Meanwhile, the strength for absorbing property
damage and
damage and post-disaster
post-disaster reconstruction—promoted,
reconstruction—promoted, for for example,
example, by by insurance
insurance systems,
systems, which
which are
are
also part of coping capacity—is critical to a successful rebuilding. Nevertheless, financial
also part of coping capacity—is critical to a successful rebuilding. Nevertheless, financial ability may ability may
hinder efforts
hinder efforts toto reduce
reduce the the susceptibility
susceptibility to
to impacts.
impacts. InIn the
the Nagano
Nagano case,
case, preparedness
preparedness reduced
reduced the
the
residents’ susceptibility to death or injury, as proven by just two fatalities in this disaster
residents’ susceptibility to death or injury, as proven by just two fatalities in this disaster event. On the event. On
other hand, since a good insurance system guarantees the income of farmers, they have no intention no
the other hand, since a good insurance system guarantees the income of farmers, they have to
give up farming on floodplains, although they know another large flood may come at any time. Asat
intention to give up farming on floodplains, although they know another large flood may come a
any time.
result, As a result,
the economic the
loss, oreconomic loss, or to
the susceptibility the susceptibility
non-life impacts to non-life impacts
of flooding, of flooding,
will remain will
high because
remain
of the highhighlevel
because of the
of coping high level
capacity. of coping
In light capacity. In between
of the relationship light of susceptibility
the relationship andbetween
coping
susceptibility and coping capacity identified in this study, a new conceptual
capacity identified in this study, a new conceptual vulnerability reduction framework is proposed,vulnerability reduction
as
framework
shown is proposed,
in Figure 14. as shown in Figure 14.
Figure 14. New framework for vulnerability management.
The area of thethe diamond

diamond represents the level of vulnerability, and and the
the four
four vertices
vertices represent
Exposure
Exposure (E),
(E),Coping
CopingCapacity
Capacity(C),(C),Susceptibility
Susceptibilitytotodirect
directlife loss
life and
loss and injury (S1)
injury and
(S1) andSusceptibility to
Susceptibility
non-life impacts
to non-life (S2).(S2).
impacts ForFor
vulnerability
vulnerabilitymanagement,
management, the top
thepriority should
top priority be thebeminimization
should of S1,
the minimization
ideally to zero,tothrough
of S1, ideally enhancing
zero, through coping capacity.
enhancing This translates
coping capacity. into transforming
This translates the diamond
into transforming the
to a triangle. Then, via further coping capacity enhancement such as better
diamond to a triangle. Then, via further coping capacity enhancement such as better land-use land-use planning and
regulation
planning and andregulation
better insurance systems,
and better both Esystems,
insurance and S2 can
bothbeEreduced,
and S2 cantransforming
be reduced, a fat triangle intoa
transforming
afat
thin triangle.
triangle intoThis simple
a thin conceptual
triangle. model can
This simple help decision-makers
conceptual model can help prioritize policies to effectively
decision-makers prioritize
reduce
policies to effectively reduce disaster vulnerability step by step and contribute to betteralso
disaster vulnerability step by step and contribute to better urban planning. It could urbanbe
used to conduct
planning. a better
It could also evaluation
be used toofconduct
disaster areduction policies byofelucidating
better evaluation which component
disaster reduction policies byof
susceptibility
elucidating whichis more influenced,
component or whether both
of susceptibility S1 and
is more S2 could or
influenced, bewhether
simultaneously
both S1 reduced. For
and S2 could
Naganuma district,reduced.
be simultaneously this framework placed its
For Naganuma vulnerability
district, status close
this framework to the
placed its B stage. Namely,
vulnerability statusit
reduced S1 to
close to the a largeNamely,
B stage. extent, but had a limited
it reduced S1 to aeffect
largeon S2. To
extent, butmove
had to the C stage,
a limited effectnew
on S2.policies are
To move
required to reduce both E and S2 via coping capacity enhancement. Such an enhancement could come
from a combination of river engineering work to reduce exposure and better insurance as an incentive
for farmers to abandon farming on floodplains or seek crop change in order to reduce S2.
Furthermore, this conceptual framework can be expressed mathematically as
Exposure Exposure
Vulnerability = × S1 + α × × S2 (3)
Coping Capacity Coping Capacity
where the coefficient α reflects the effect of coping capacity management on susceptibility to non-life
impacts. If α > 1, the enhancement of coping capacity is less effective in reducing vulnerability due to
the negative effect on non-life-impact susceptibility.
5. Conclusions
By conducting a multifaceted analysis of a recent flooding disaster in Japan, new insights into
vulnerability and its generating mechanisms were gained. Highlights of our findings are given below:
• The examination of the landform, flood hazard maps and building locations of the target area
indicated that it is a highly flood-prone area and that the projected maximum inundation depth
in Naganuma district could be as high as 20 m. However, many houses were constructed in
relatively less dangerous locations, proving that the local community has taken certain measures
to reduce the degree of susceptibility to flooding.
• The comparison between flood hazard maps and the estimated inundation depth distribution
on 13 October 2019 indicated that the flood hazard map for the target area provided reliable
information on high flood risk zones, although it needs further improvement to provide more
accurate information of inundation depths.
• An adaptation measure taken 100 years ago has increased the financial capacity of the local
community to deal with flood disasters. However, it may have heightened its susceptibility to
flood hazard at the same time.
• Although the coping capacity of the community can be characterized as being financially capable
because of the well-established insurance and government aid systems, it is insufficient in terms
of human resources for reconstruction.
• Given that a large number of residents were rescued, not evacuated before the occurrence of the
disaster, and that shelters near residential areas malfunctioned, the coping capacity of the local
community can also be characterized as being very high in terms of preparedness but questionable
with regard to the implementation of the emergency response plan.
• Based on our fieldwork, we concluded that the distance or proximity to a hazard can be an
important determinant of the flood risk management strategy taken by a company.
• Besides, the analysis showed that Sakura levees can reduce the stress of residents, but also increase
the exposure of local residents to a flood disaster. Such a culture-induced exposure deserves
further study.
• The work also suggested that the enhancement of coping capacity via insurance may hinder
the reduction of susceptibility to the impacts of flooding and proposed a new framework for
vulnerability management.
Author Contributions: G.H. designed this study and conducted the field survey and data analysis together with
J.F. J.F. conceptualized the new framework for vulnerability management. The manuscript was jointly prepared.
All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: This research received no external funding and was supported by Sophia University, Japan.
Acknowledgments: This research was funded by Sophia University, Japan, Internal Grant, 2019. We would like
to express our gratitude to the reviewers for their very constructive comments and professional advice, which
greatly improved the quality of the manuscript.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
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© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access
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sustainability

Keywords: flood; vulnerability; susceptibility; coping capacity; Chikuma River

Sustainability 2020, 12, 5357; doi:10.3390/su12135357 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

(a) Relocation (b) Setback

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Study Area

Figure 2. Watershed of the Chikuma River.

Risk = Hazard × Vulnerability (1)

3.1. Exposure and Susceptibility Assessment

Red circles indicate where houses could be damaged by flood water

Figure 5. Flood hazard map of the Naganuma district [30].

Time from Oct. 12 to 14

Distance from the river mouth

3.2. Assessment of Coping Capacity

Table 1. Flood warning system of Japan.

Warning Level Evacuation Information Meteorological Information Advised Action

Shelters shown on flood

Figure 13. Shelters that failed to function on 13 October 2019.

Figure 14. New framework for vulnerability management.

The area of thethe diamond

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