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CPM
CPM ASSIGNMENT # 06
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Find the probability that the project will finish
1. by the end of day 26
2. before the start of day 25
3. during the day 24
PERT
4. find the date of completion with at least 93 percent confidence.
Solution

Critical
Submitted To:
Act. Ta tm tb te σte vte
A Sir Liaqat 6Ali Qureshi
6 6 6 0 0
D 2 5 8 5 1 1
Submitted By:
E 2 3 7 3.5 0.83 0.69
F 6 8 10 8 0.67 0.45
MALIK SALMAN AHSAN
I 2 2 5 2.5 0.5 0.25
06-CE-76
Total 25 2.39

TE & σTE
 TE = ∑ te = 25
 σTE = √ ∑ν = √ 2.39 = 1.55
By the end of day 26
Z-26 = (Ts - TE) /σTE
= 26 - 25 / 1.55
= 0.65
P-26 = 0.75= 75 %
Before the start of day 25
(by the end of day 24)
Z-24 = (Ts - TE) /σTE
= 24 - 25 / 1.55
= -0.65
P-24 = 0.26= 26 % Civil Engineering Department
during the day 24
University of Engineering & Technology
 It is equivalent to Taxila
“By the end of day 24 - By the end of day 23”
Z-24 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 24 - 25 / 1.55 = -.65
P-24 = 0.26= 26 %
Z-23 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 23 - 25 / 1.55 = -1.29
P-23 = 10%
P24 = P-24 - P-23 =26%-10%=16%

Find the date of completion with at least 93 percent confidence.

P = 93 %
Z = 1.5 (from table)
Z = (Ts - TE) /σTE
 1.5 = (Ts - 25) / 1.55
Ts = 27.325

Therefore, the completion date = end of day 28 with at least 93.5 confidence.

PRACTICE PROBLEM-2

Fill in the given tables and answer questions and detremine

 TE
 σTE
Find the probability that the project will finish
1. at least 2 days earlier
2. no more than 1 day earlier
3. on TE
4. on day 13 ,14 ,15.
5. by the end of day 17
6. before the start of day 18
7. Find the date of completion with at least 83 % confidence
Solution

Critical
Act. ta tm tb te σte vte
A 1 3 5 3 0.67 0.45
C. 1 1 4 1.5 0.5 0.25
E 2 4 6 4 1.5 0.45
F 2 3 7 3.5 2.5 0.69
H 3 3 9 4 3.5 1

Total 16 2.8561

TE & σTE
 TE = ∑ te = 16
 σTE = √ ∑ν = √ 2.86 = 1.69
at least 2 days earlier
(It is equivalent to “By the end of day 14)
Z-14 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 14 - 16 / 1.69 = -1.18
P-14 = 12 %
no more than 1 day earlier
(It is equivalent to “After the end of day 15)
Z-15 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 15 - 16 / 1.69 = -0.59
P-15 = 27%
So , P15- = 100-27=73 %
On TE
(It is equivalent to “During day 16”)

Z-16 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 16 - 16 / 1.69 = 0

P-16 = 50 %
Z-15 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 15 - 16 / 1.69 = -0.59
P-15 = 27%
P16 = 50%-27% = 73%
on day 13 ,14 ,15.

 It is equivalent to
“By the end of day 15 - By the end of day 13”
P13,14,15 = P-15 - P-12
= 27 - 1
= 9%
before the start of day 18
by the end of day 17
Z-17 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 17 - 16 / 1.69 = 0.59
P-17 = 73%
Find the date of completion with at least 83 percent confidence.

P = 83 %
Z = 0.95 (from table)
Z = (Ts - TE) /σTE
1.5 = (Ts - 16) / 1.69
Ts = 17.6

Therefore, the completion date = end of day 18 with at least 83 confidence.

PRACTICE PROBLEM-2
Fill in the given tables and answer questions and determine
 TE
 σTE
Find the probability that the project will finish
1. by the end of day 69
2. on day 66
3. before the start of day 67
4. Find the date of completion with at least 98 % completion
Solution
Critical
Act. ta tm tb te σte vte
B 8 10 12 10 0.67 0.45
D 11 11 15 11.67 0.67 0.45
F 4 9 11 8.5 1.17 1.37
G 5 5 7 5.33 0.33 0.11
I 8 8 8 8 0 0
K 7 9 11 9 0.67 0.45
L 5 8 8 7.5 0.5 0.25
M 7 8 9 8 0.33 0.11

Total 68 3.19
TE & σTE
 TE = ∑ te = 68
 σTE = √ ∑ν = √ 3.19 = 1.79
on day 66
Duration day 66

Z-66 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 66 - 68 / 1.79 = -1.12

P-66 = 14 %
Z-65 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 65 - 68 / 1.79 = -1.68
P-65 = 5 %
P66 = 14%-5% = 9%
Before the start of day 67
by the end of day 66
Z-66 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 66 - 68 / 1.79 = -1.12
P-66 = 14 %
Find the date of completion with at least 98 percent confidence.

P = 98 %
Z = 2 (from table)
Z = (Ts - TE) /σTE
2 = (Ts - 16) / 1.79
Ts = 68.59 or day 69

SUPPLEMENTRY PROBLEM-1
Fill in the given tables and answer questions and determine
 TE
 σTE
Find the probability that the project will finish
1. By the end of day 33
2. before the start of day 32
3. during day 31
4. Find the date of completion with at least 80 % completion
Solution
Critical
Act. ta tm tb te σte vte
B 6 8 10 8 0.666667 0.81
C 7 7 7 7 0 0
G 5 5 8 5.5 0.5 0.707107
H 3 6 9 6 1 1
J 3 6 6 5.5 0.5 0.707107

Total 32 3.224214
TE & σTE
 TE = ∑ te = 32
 σTE = √ ∑ν = √ 3.22 = 1.79
By the end of day 33
Z-33 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 33 - 32 / 1.79 = .56
P-33 = 71 %
before the start of day 32
by the end of day 31
Z-31 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 31 - 32 / 1.79 = -.56
P-31 = 31 %
during day 31
Z-31 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 31 - 32 / 1.79 = -.56
P-31 = 31 %
Z-30 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 30 - 32 / 1.79 = -1.12
P-30 = 14 %
P31 = 31%-14%=17 %
Find the date of completion with at least 80 % completion
P = 80 %
Z = 0.9 (from table)
Z = (Ts - TE) /σTE
.9 = (Ts - 68) / 1.79
Ts = 69.6 or day 70

SUPPLEMENTRY PROBLEM-2
Fill in the given tables and answer questions and determine
 TE
 σTE
Find the probability that the project will finish
1. at least 2 days early
2. no more than 1 day early
3. on TE
4. on days 23,24 or 25
5. Find the date of completion with at least 93 % completion
Solution
Critical
Act. ta tm tb te σte vte
B 3 6 9 6 1 1
D 2 3 7 3.5 0.833333 0.912871
F 3 3 9 4 1 1
H 6 8 10 8 0.666667 0.816497
J 1 3 8 3.5 1.166667 1.080123

Total 25 4.809491

TE & σTE
 TE = ∑ te = 25
 σTE = √ ∑ν = √ 4.81 = 2.19
At least 2 days early
(It is equivalent to “By the end of day 23)

Z-23 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 23 - 25 / 2.19 = -0.91

P-23 = 18%
 no more than 1 day early
(It is equivalent to “After the end of day 24)

Z-24 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 24 - 25 / 2.19 = -0.46

P-24 = 34 %
So , P24- = 100-34=66 %
On TE
(It is equivalent to “During day 25”)
Z-25 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 25 - 25 / 2.19 = 0
P-25 = 50 %
Z-24 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 24 - 25 / 2.19 = -0.64
P-24 = 34%
P16 = 50%-34% = 16%
Find the date of completion with at least 93 % completion
P = 93%
Z = 1.5 (from table)
Z = (Ts - TE) /σTE
1.5 = (Ts - 25) / 2.19
Ts = 28.29 or day 29

SUPPLEMENTRY PROBLEM-3
Fill in the given tables and answer questions and determine
 TE
 σTE
Find the probability that the project will finish
1. by the end of day 58
2. on day 55
3. before the start of day 56
4. Find the date of completion with at least 98 % completion
Solution
Critical
Act. ta tm tb te σte vte
A 5 6 7 6 0.333333 0.57735
B 3 5 7 5 0.666667 0.816497
E 8 9 13 9.5 0.833333 0.912871
F 1 4 4 3.5 0.5 0.707107
I 6 6 6 6 0 0
J 5 7 9 7 0.666667 0.816497
M 9 10 14 10.5 0.833333 0.912871
N 8 8 11 8.5 0.5 0.707107

Total 56 5.450299
TE & σTE
 TE = ∑ te = 56
 σTE = √ ∑ν = √ 5.45 = 2.33

by the end of day 58

Z-58 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 58 - 56 / 2.33 = 0.86
P-58 = 79 %
on day 55
Z-55 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 55 - 56 / 2.33 = 0.43
P-55 = 66 %
Z-54 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 54 - 56 / 2.33 = -.86
P-54 = 21 %
P55 = 66%-21% =45%
before the start of day 56
before the end of day 55
Z-55 = (Ts - TE) /σTE = 55 - 56 / 2.33 = 0.43
P-55 = 66 %
Find the date of completion with at least 98 % completion
P = 98 %
Z = 2 (from table)
Z = (Ts - TE) /σTE
2 = (Ts - 56) / 2.33
Ts = 60.66 or day 61
THE END