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Outline
Acknowledgement.......................................................................................................................................1
Importance of the selected topic..................................................................................................................2
Theoretical background and literature review.............................................................................................3
Data analysis...............................................................................................................................................5
Source of data and Methodology.............................................................................................................5
Data description.......................................................................................................................................6
Empirical estimation and interpretation.......................................................................................................7
Conclusion and Policy recommendation.....................................................................................................9
List of Reference.......................................................................................................................................10

Acknowledgement
 WESTMINSTER INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IN TASHKENT
We are quite thankful to each of team members and two anonymous readers for informative and thorough
feedback. We would like to acknowledge European Bank for Restoration and Growth and World Bank
for collecting and presenting good quality dataset on divorces in Uzbekistan. This research conducted by
the master’s degree students of WIUT with the purpose of identifying the determinants of divorce rate in
the case of Uzbekistan.
 WESTMINSTER INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IN TASHKENT
Importance of the selected topic

Divorce is a societal innovation connected to marriage and family; it was seen as a method to reveal
failure via marriage. tit creates private, household, together with community breakdown, as well as
females appear to be more forbidden than males in many of these circumstances. Analyzing the past
trends of divorce factors between modern nations, the potential and extent of divorce increased regardless
of whether we are shifting from the feudal regime to a democratic and modern community. And since
1950s, the divorce scale has risen. to Also in places with high legislative as well as social obstacles,
breakup rates is keeping to grow. Based on Statistics of America in 1998, 1 million American kids all
have parental breakups, half of which are under the age of 18 years. Around 1965 and 1969 UK's rate of
divorce slowly rose by 9% annually. Within the timeframe to 1970 the rate of divorce doubled, together
with an increase from around 3% in 1980 to 6% in around1990. a While the number of breakups in
England is close to that in the U. S., it is not so distinctive from most of EU member nations. The divorce
rate in Denmark is immense, followed by France, together with Germany. n Uzbekistan is not exception
to the fact that more recorded divorce had occurred in recent years and its pattern had risen based
on official figures of the Institution of statistics in Uzbekistan.  Various variables influence divorce, such
as physical, civil, emotional as well as other exterior experiences. This paper explores the impact of socio
- economic influences on breakups and recognizes the link between the socio-economic variables and
separation in Uzbekistan.

Theoretical background and literature review

Divorce like a societal issue is not theoretically taken into consideration. Thus, in this analysis many
hypotheses were also used to analyze the reasons surrounding divorce.  1. Homogamy Theory
Homogamy amongst two persons not only draws them, but also enhances their relation. Dissonance of the
two is in other terms, a cause of household dispute. Based on the information of Hill, men prefer to select
a wife who is homologous but when this law is not practiced regardless of any excuse, then spouses are
expected to be contradictory and eventually split. Bowerman suggests that male understands or is not
conscious of the option of a partner with identical qualities. People who marry are structurally similar
with their marriage status. Timber states that based on theological perspective if in marriage has less
ethnic as well as religion similarity, there will be more disputes amongst two. Cheny et. al (2009) agree
that deeper cultural and racial ties amongst husband and wife leads to less threat of divorce.   Based on
the level of similarity, husband and wife's interactions are far more secure (Sarokhani, 2006). Thus, close
 WESTMINSTER INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IN TASHKENT
and healthy relationship is induced by comparable behaviors amongst man and women based on
the homogamous theory. 

2. Exchange theory. This phenomenon recognizes social behavior as a concrete and satisfying exchange

operation among at least 2 individuals. The Homans theory demonstrates that social exchanges are
focused on personal desires and on the convergence of inside and outside necessities (Ritezr, 2007).
Person conduct differs due to incentives, together with negative consequences. 

Based on the hypothesis, numerous separate spouses analyze performed active reasons of separation.

Saifllohi (1993) claimed that in his analysis that the main reason for separation was theological
disagreement, family quarrel, inconsistency, commitment, pregnancy, kids and lack of treatment. The
biggest as well as the best amount of marriages, birthplaces and nationality. Rahman (1996) also found
many reasons of separation, namely religious differences between the sexes, age gaps, ethics as well as
spousal abuse, addiction and jobs in his selected respondents as well as interviewing tools. Yet economic
issues in multiple ways remain the most critical reasons for separation.

In his study, Keyz (1989) concluded that the usage of an alcohol liter contributes to a rise in divorce of
30%. In other study, the 1 percent divorce rate increased by 10 percent with the associated expense of
alcohol. Researchers find that alcohol is successful in rising divorce. This research supports the elevated
alcohol prices. In other terms, there is correlation between the intake of alcohol and the incidence of
divorce. Increased intake of alcohol contributes to increased separation and conversely.

Data analysis
Source of data and Methodology
This research utilizes data obtained in 2016 by the European Bank for Restoration and Growth (EBRD)
and the World Bank from Existence in Transition (LITS III). We utilize only details regarding Uzbekistan
since we examine the social determinants of divorce in Uzbekistan. In reality, the dataset was in the
family and we reshaped the sample and maintained just initial and second participants above 17 years of
age. we applied, the OLS regression model by making an assumption that there is a linear relation
between the chance of separation and its determinants in Uzbekistan. The model weakness is that the
amount of children in the model cannot be included since this detail is not available in the results. For this
purpose of analysis, following OLS regression model is applied:

Yi=α+β1Rural+β2Woman-earns-more+β3 Educ.group+β4Ethnic.group + β5Age.group+ε

Where, Yi: dependent dummy variable which gets the value of one if an individual is divorced during the
time of survey or zero for any other marital status. Rural: is a variable that denotes whether the
respondents from rural area of urban; Woman-earns-more: shows whether the earning of the female is
 WESTMINSTER INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IN TASHKENT
higher than male’s and the values of one implies that the woman earns higher salary, otherwise 0;
Ethnic.group corresponds to four ethnic groups of the respondents, namely Russians, Karakalpaks,
Uzbeks and others, since the divorce rate could be different among different nations due to the difference
in cultures. Educ.group defines which education stage respondent have and it is divided into basic,
secondary and higher educations. Age.group variable defines the age of the responds, since young age
marriage also considered one of the determinants of divorce in the previous research papers. μ is
reflected other factors.

Data description
According to the table below, it can be seen that on average 2.7 percent of the respondent in the case of
Uzbekistan are divorce. This rate is relatively low in comparison with other countries. In Uzbekistan more
respondents were from rural areas with 62 percent. As stated earlier the higher earning of females than
that of males is significantly low with on average 2 percent. According to the table, we can state that most
of the respondents have secondary education level with 76 percent. Similarly, as expected on average the
ethnic group of most of the respondents is Uzbek with almost 87 percent. The least one is Russian
respondents with 1.9 percent. Among age groups, elder people over 55 responded more to the
questionnaire, whereas this rate is the least among youth between 18 and 25.

. sum divorced rural womanearnsmore i.education i.ethnicgroup i.agegroup

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max

divorced 2,026 .0266535 .1611084 0 1

rural 2,026 .6229023 .4847794 0 1
womanearns~e 2,026 .0202369 .1408445 0 1

education
basic 2,026 .0913129 .2881247 0 1
secondary 2,026 .7611056 .4265134 0 1

higher 2,026 .1475814 .3547722 0 1

ethnicgroup
other 2,026 .0755183 .264291 0 1
Uzbek 2,026 .8677196 .338879 0 1
Karakalpak 2,026 .0380059 .1912578 0 1
Russian 2,026 .0187562 .1356962 0 1

agegroup
18-25 2,026 .0133268 .1146981 0 1
26-35 2,026 .1076012 .3099526 0 1
36-45 2,026 .2018756 .401499 0 1
46-55 2,026 .2922014 .4548867 0 1
55+ 2,026 .3849951 .4867143 0 1
 WESTMINSTER INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IN TASHKENT
Empirical estimation and interpretation
Below table reveals the empirical outcomes of our regression analysis. According to the table it is clear
that all the variables that we selected impact of the divorce rate at 1 and 5 percent statistically significant
stage, but age groups. However, according to the R square, it can be seen that only 2.4 alteration in
divorce rate can be described by the variables that we have selected and divorce rate mostly impacted by
other factors. As we expected living in rural areas negatively correlated with divorce rate, since as
previous researchers stated modernization is one of the main determinants of divorce rate. 1 percent
change in the residents of people living in rural areas is correlated with -0.031-point alteration in divorce
rate at 1 percent statistically significance level. Since modernization did not enter fully to many of rural
areas of Uzbekistan, their leaving in traditional ways leads to living with their couples. Based on the
ethnic groups variable, we may mention that the impact of Karakalpak nationality on divorce rate is
highest among mentioned ethnic groups. It shows that 1 percent increase in Karakalpak ethnic group is
correlated with 0.044 points decrease in divorce rate on average. Russian ethnic group is positively
correlated with divorce rate. The results show that at 5 percent statistically significant level one percent
increase in Russian ethnic groups leads to 0.063 points increase in divorce rate on average. Like
Karakalpak ethnic group, Uzbek nationality is also negatively correlated with divorce rate at 5
percentages statistically significance level. 1 percent increase in Uzbek ethnic group is correlated with
0.029 points decrease in divorce rate. Overall, we can state that although several variables impact both
positively and negatively on the divorce rate, among selected variables, only rural area variables
correlated with divorce rate at 1 percentile statistically significant level.

(1)
VARIABLES OLS

rural -0.0318***
(0.00757)
womanearnsmore -0.00342
(0.0253)
1.ethnicgroup -0.0293**
(0.0136)
2.ethnicgroup -0.0444**
(0.0226)
3.ethnicgroup 0.0633**
(0.0292)
2.education -0.00751
(0.0124)
3.education -0.0113
(0.0150)
2.agegroup 0.0176
(0.0326)
3.agegroup 0.0280
(0.0318)
 WESTMINSTER INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IN TASHKENT
4.agegroup 0.0430
(0.0315)
5.agegroup 0.0396
(0.0313)
Constant 0.0445
(0.0349)

Observations 2,026
R-squared 0.024
Standard errors in parentheses
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

Conclusion and Policy recommendation

The main purpose of the paper was to identify the socioeconomic determinants of the divorce rate in the
case of Uzbekistan. In order to conduct a research, we have gathered data from LITS III survey data
during 2016 and in order to analyze them we have applied OLS regression model.

Based on the empirical analysis, to reduce the divorce rate the organizations could focus on these factors
that are statistically significant. However, the root of the divorce could be modernization as stated in
literature review. Therefore, in order to reduce or keep constant the divorce rate the organizations should
focus on how to reduce the side effects of globalization. Although there are numerous advantages of the
globalization, there are such kinds of side effects of it. Therefore, in order to reduce this side effect, the
government organizations that are responsible for such kind of duties should educate the new comers to
the city, since increase in urbanization is positively correlated with increase in divorce rate. In order to do
it the government organizations should apply social media and TV and create an immunity among the
population before becoming the part of globalization. These could be some kind of picture of videos that
show the consequences of always being so active users of various social media and as a result an addition
to it, not feeling responsibility and always living in virtual world, together with getting used to online
communication. Moreover, in order to analyzed various solutions and to select the most productive one,
additional researches should be carried out with more data. However, the main issue here is the lack of
data in the case of Uzbekistan. Therefore, initially before utilizing various methods to reduce the divorce
rate, reliable and big enough data should be collected and analyzed.
 WESTMINSTER INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IN TASHKENT
List of Reference

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Raz-Yurovich, L. (2011). Economic Determinants of Divorce among Dual-Earner Couples: Jews in

Israel. Acting Deputy Head of the Laboratory of Economic and Social Demography.

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Yean-Ju Lee, L. B. (2006). Socioeconomic Determinants of Divorce and Separation in South Korea:
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Sarokhani,B.(1996), Research Methods in Social Science, Volume 1, Tehran.

Gujaratti D., (2003). Basic Econometrics, 4th edition, McGraw Hill

Jalilian, A.(1996), Causes of Divorce in Tehran, Allame Tababtabaie University.

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