Why Economies Analytics Matter For Business Strategy

WHY ECONOMIES ANALYTICS MATTER FOR
BUSINESS STRATEGY
INTRODUCTION
QUANTIFY THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC EVENTS
TRACK TARGET MARKET ECONOMIES
MODEL OUTCOMES FOR BREXIT
ANTICIPATE COST FLUCTUATIONS TO 2030
CONCLUSION
INTRODUCTION
Why Economies Analytics matters for your strategy
No market operates in isolation from the economy, while commodity prices Disclaimer
affect manufacturing input costs (and, therefore, business profits and the end Much of the information in this
briefing is of a statistical nature and,
unit price for the consumer). Rising food and energy prices feed into while every attempt has been made
inflationary pressures, which directly affect business investment and consumer to ensure accuracy and reliability,
purchasing power. Euromonitor International cannot be
held responsible for omissions or
Euromonitor International’s risk scenarios form a major part of our Analytics errors.
Figures in tables and analyses are
capabilities and can be used to explore the impact of various macro shocks to calculated from unrounded data and
help businesses stay ahead of the opportunities and challenges in their may not sum. Analyses found in the
operating environment. briefings may not totally reflect the
companies’ opinions, reader
This Strategy Briefing will explain why Economies Analytics form a vital part of discretion is advised.
business strategy. Use our interactive intelligence tools to: Euromonitor International’s
 Stress-test “what if” macro scenarios and analyse their impact Analytics Models take data
insights to the next level,
 Simulate global economic events unlocking faster insight
capabilities, while
 Measure spill-over effects complementing our statistics
 Assess a country’s economic health and analysis. Economies
Analytics empower business
 Identify the strongest and weakest economies strategy enabling analysis of
“what if” macro shock
 Understand market resilience scenarios, such as Brexit.
Understand changes in
 Highlight early warning signs of economic change commodity prices and forecasts,
 Future-proof strategy a key input cost for many
industries, and use our Monthly
 Analyse commodity price changes and Quarterly dashboard to
evaluate the economic health of
 Gauge the impact of economic variables on commodity price forecast. a country and any early warning
signs.
© Euromonitor International STRATEGY BRIEFING : WHY ECONOMIES ANALYTICS MATTER FOR BUSINESS PASSPORT 3
STRATEGY
INTRODUCTION
Analytics help with strategic decisions
STRATEGY
INTRODUCTION
Economies Analytics at a glance
STRATEGY
INTRODUCTION
Build up an economic picture of your markets
Interactive Euromonitor International’s Analytics team have used cutting-edge methods and
visualisation tools advanced econometric techniques to create a suite of state-of-the-art, user-friendly,
interactive market intelligence tools. These are targeted at the non-expert. Clients can
use them to create more robust business strategies, understand market drivers, and
aid contingency planning.
Macro Model A unique and powerful tool to examine historic data, forecasts and alternative "what if"
scenarios for core macro variables. Stress-test key macro assumptions and analyse
global and country-specific risks and their impact on key macroeconomic indicators.
Economic Leverage the latest economic data in a single easy-to-use executive dashboard. Stay
Barometer ahead of trends and quickly drill down to the most important changes facing individual
countries. Assess a country’s economic health and identify the strongest and weakest
performing economies, and any early warning signals.
Brexit Scenarios Allows you to analyse the potential impact of Brexit on UK industries, consumers and
Tool the economy through multiple macroeconomic scenarios. Keep track of the latest
monthly and quarterly macroeconomic indicators. Analyse the insights drawn from as
many as 10 different dashboards available on Passport in a single tool.
Commodity Price An interactive visual tool to help gauge the impact of economic variables on
Model commodity price forecasts through enacting “what if” scenarios. Identify factors driving
commodity prices or adjust the Euromonitor set of baseline assumptions to your own.
Provides a snapshot of commodity prices and forecasts over time.
STRATEGY
INTRODUCTION
What Economies Analytics can help you achieve
• Plan for “what if” economic scenarios, such as Brexit, and stress-test key macro assumptions at
the push of a button. Analyse global and country-specific risks to future-proof strategy.
1
• Identify the strongest and weakest economies. Analyse monthly and quarterly data for early
warning signals, and drill down to the most important trends facing countries.
2
• Find new growth opportunities including market entry and product development. Benchmark
economies at a global and regional level.
3
• Understand commodity pricing pressures, which are an essential input cost for many FMCG
companies. Prepare for potential commodity price shocks.
4
• Empower business strategy by using our forecasts in business models and our sophisticated
visual insights in analysis.
5
STRATEGY
INTRODUCTION
CONCLUSION
Quantify the real-life impact of economic events: Macro Model
• Quarterly forecast restatements

• Regularly updated macro forecasts take into account recent economic developments and reflect
expectations for real GDP growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rate in over 50 countries.
1. • Accompanied by the Global Economic Forecasts reports explaining how forecasts have changed and
why.
• “What if?” scenario analysis

• Within a few clicks, you can assess and compare the potential impact of global macroeconomic events
2. like a China Hard Landing, Trump Adverse Policies or Brexit, on your target markets.
• Interactive, user-defined scenario analysis

• Simulate user-defined scenarios, eg oil price declining to US$30.0 per barrel or country-specific
3. possibilities based on economic growth slowdown, acceleration or major downturn.
• Stress-test business plans

• Analyse and compare country-specific risks, and examine strengths and weaknesses of economies.
Understand the economic risks for doing business in your target markets and be prepared with the
4. most effective response strategy.
• Picking the right markets for growth

• Find the next growth market with up-to-date macro forecasts. See which markets are the most
5. promising, and run scenarios to future-proof your strategy.
STRATEGY
Macro Model methodology at a glance
 Our baseline macroeconomic forecasts are

produced as a combination of:
 Global macroeconomic model that uses data Baseline forecasts
from multiple sources on real GDP growth,
inflation, interest rates, exchange rates and
unemployment rates to forecast those variables.
 Adjustments to reflect other information that is Adjustments to
Global
not taken into account by the pure model reflect other
macroeconomic
forecast: credit markets or confidence measures, market
model
the views of policy institutions and other private information
sector forecasters.
 For every macro scenario we assign a range of
probabilities:
 Country scenarios: We use historically-observed
shock sizes to map out the most likely Macro scenarios
pessimistic / optimistic scenarios and their
corresponding probabilities.
 Global scenarios: We use the statistical
distribution of real GDP growth rates to Statistical distribution
for real GDP growth Macroeconomic
determine reasonable magnitudes for such + scenario specific model simulations
hypothetical shocks and their corresponding news, other models
probability.
STRATEGY
Macro forecasts help answer critical business questions
What will our target market look like in the next five to 15 years?
How can we quantify the real-life impact of complex economic events?
What are global and country specific economic risks and vulnerabilities?
Which countries feature the lowest risks, to be considered for expansion?
How will major economic events affect the economic environment for governments,
consumers and business?
Can we plan ahead and be prepared for another global crisis?
How can we develop a systematic strategy for scenario sensitivity analysis?
Where can we find macro forecasts to populate our financial models?
STRATEGY
Case study: US automakers opting for domestic investments
 Globalisation is facing one of the biggest political tests in

decades. The surge in anti-trade and anti-immigrant rhetoric
around the world is being accompanied by a rise in proposals
for protectionist measures by the world’s leading advanced
economies.
 In 2017, President Donald Trump signed an executive order
removing the USA from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and
launched North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
renegotiations. He has also threatened to impose import tariffs
of 35.0% on Mexico and 45.0% on China.
 In Mexico, the rise in trade barriers to the USA would cause a
loss of confidence and a spike in risk premium. Banco de
Mexico would respond to the resulting currency devaluation and
higher inflation through interest rate increases. Rising costs of
borrowing, combined with lower private sector confidence,
cause a sharp contraction in consumer spending and business
investment. As a result, Mexico would enter a recession, with
real GDP falling by 10.0% below the baseline forecast.
 Under pressure from President Trump’s anti-trade rhetoric,
several US carmakers have decided to revisit their previous
investment plans. For instance, Ford Motor Company has
scrapped plans to build a US$1.6 billion car factory in Mexico
and instead decided to invest US$1.2 billion in three new plants
in Michigan, USA.
STRATEGY
Case study: Beauty brands preparing for slowing emerging markets
 Making systematically-sound strategic

decisions under uncertainty does not
always mean predicting exactly what
happens. More often, it requires
identifying a range of potential
outcomes, or scenarios, and assigning
probabilities to them. This allows
determining uncertainty that surrounds
strategic decisions and tailoring a
business strategy to that uncertainty.
 Globally, we see advanced economies
stagnation and emerging markets
slowdown as the two principal risks in
the medium to long term. Advanced
economies remain vulnerable to slow
Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model
labour productivity growth and high
political uncertainty, whilst the major  Brazil is one of the countries most exposed to the emerging
risks for emerging markets are market slowdown. For the beauty and personal care industry
stemming from tighter global financing in Brazil, keeping options of switching to smaller pack sizes
conditions and the credit downturn in and removing extra features could help maintain consumption
China. Businesses, hence, need to be in times of tight budgets. For example, the Vult make-up brand
prepared, build resilience, and tap into performed strongly in Brazil in 2016 by launching make-up
category strengths. powder without the mirror, to keep prices accessible.
STRATEGY
INTRODUCTION
CONCLUSION
Track where your markets are heading: Economic Barometer
• Cross-country overview of the latest macroeconomic data

• Economic Barometer provides the latest monthly and quarterly data for over 80 countries and 30
indicators in a single, easy-to-use interface.
1. • Benchmark a market’s performance in a global or regional context.
• Early-warning signals about upcoming changes

• Monthly data is available for leading economic indicators, such as retail sales, industrial production,
wages, consumer confidence, stock market and house prices, which tend to precede changes in
2. GDP or private consumption.
• Complete economic profile for emerging and developed economies

• Geographies cover many emerging markets where data is hard to find, including entire historic time
series and short-term forecasts. Switch between monthly and quarterly data or add seasonal
3. adjustment; see clearly where forecasts begin.
• Keeping track of recent changes

• Special navigational functions enable seeing which data has been updated since the last visit in
order to focus on the new information only, or immediately identify the indicators that are increasing
4. or decreasing.
STRATEGY
Economic Barometer methodology at a glance
Benefits of Passport database… … and much more!

 Economic Barometer brings a solid and constantly  Economic Barometer allows you to clearly see
growing database of monthly and quarterly data on where historic data ends and forecasts begins.
Passport to the surface.  The tool enables you to quickly see and highlight
 The data is updated twice a month, with our what has changed over the last week, month or
analysts closely monitoring the release schedules quarter.
of national statistical offices and central banks to  Interactive filtering allows zooming in on all
ensure that our database always contains the indicators for a single country or back to a cross-
latest available data. The forecasts are also country view.
updated twice a month.
STRATEGY
Track economic performance to answer critical business questions
In what direction are the economies of our target markets heading?
How has market performance changed since the last month/quarter?
How does the economic performance of a market compare regionally/globally?
What are the drivers behind market growth?
Should we be worried about falling retail sales? Or rising inflation?
Is it a good time to change product pricing strategy? Or launch new outlets?
How can we benchmark government finances within a regional/global context?
Where can we find the latest high-frequency data for our in-house models and executive
presentations?
STRATEGY
Case study: Food manufacturers reduce packaging sizes in the UK
 Since the Brexit vote in June 2016, the UK pound has UK Monthly CPI Inflation, y-o-y: 2013-2018
% %
lost around 10.0% of its value against the US dollar. On
the back of the depreciating pound, consumer price
inflation has been rising rapidly, above the Bank of
England’s target of 2.0%.
 During times of rising costs and pressure to increase
prices, UK consumers have faced a concept known as
“shrinkflation”, where manufacturers reduce the package
size of household goods in order to avoid raising prices.
 In the coming months, the weak pound and accelerating
inflation are expected to continue casting a shadow on
Source: Euromonitor International Economic Barometer
real wages, consumer confidence, and spending in the
UK. In this situation, affordability and value for money UK Pound Monthly Exchange Rate: 2009-2018
might be expected to become more important to UK GPB per USD GPB per USD
consumers, as the proportion of value-seeking
consumers increases.
 This would result in either more frequent adoption of
packaging size reductions or show up as bigger average
cuts in packaging sizes in the UK packaged food
industry. According to national statistics, 2,529 products
had decreased in size between January 2012 and June
2017. Toblerone, Maltesers, M&Ms and Minstrels are a
few examples of shrinking package sizes in the UK.
Source: Euromonitor International Economic Barometer
STRATEGY
Case study: Chinese foodservice grows amid economic slowdown
 China's economic growth has made headlines for the Top Growth Economies in Terms of Real GDP:
last decade, but economic growth is half of what it was Q1 2017
in 2007. Annual real GDP growth is expected to further
decelerate from 6.7% in 2016 to 4.5% by 2030.
 Nonetheless, looking at the world’s most rapidly
growing economies in the first quarter of 2017, China
stood out as one of the top five growth markets.
China’s real GDP rose by 6.9% y-o-y in the first
quarter of 2017. Higher frequency monthly indicators
further suggest that Chinese industrial production
continued on the upward trend in the following months
on the back of stronger global demand. With China
shifting to a more consumption-orientated economy,
consumer confidence continued rising and retail sales
kept expanding. Altogether, we anticipate relatively
strong consumer spending growth in the near future,
despite a long-term economic slowdown. Source: Euromonitor International Economic Barometer
 For global operators in industries like foodservice, the changing orientation of the Chinese economy means
that that the “anything wins” approach might be no longer as effective. Issues like healthy eating,
foodservice quality, and brand engagement are increasingly important to consumers that have more
choices than ever. Starbucks has managed to benefit from this changing demand by recognising
consumers' increasingly urbanised lifestyles and regional taste differences. Starbucks plans to open 500
stores a year between 2016 and 2021, which will double its store count in China to 5,000.
STRATEGY
INTRODUCTION
CONCLUSION
Test the impact of different Brexit outcomes: Brexit Scenarios Tool
• “What if?” scenario analysis

• Explore a range of possible Brexit scenarios and obtain an immediate and convenient interpretation of
1. the consequences for the UK economy, industries and consumers in a single interface.
• Complete economic profile for the UK economy

• Access monthly and quarterly macroeconomic data for the UK in a single, easy-to-use location. Spot
2. the latest positive and negative changes in key macroeconomic indicators.
• Early-warning signals about upcoming changes

• Keep track of leading economic indicators, such as retail sales, industrial production, wages,
consumer confidence, stock market and house prices, which tend to precede changes in GDP or
3. private consumption.
• Stay informed with the Brexit process as it unfolds

• Follow key events and leverage the latest economic data in analysis to quickly drill down to the most
4. important trends facing the UK during the Brexit process.
• Benefits of multiple tools in a single location

• The tool aggregates data from 10 different dashboards on Passport, namely the Macro Model,
5. Economic Barometer, Income and Wealth Distribution Model and seven Industry Forecast Models.
STRATEGY
Brexit Scenarios Tool methodology at a glance
Economy
Explore the potential
Macro negative and positive
Model impacts of different Brexit
scenarios on the UK’s real
GDP growth
Latest Data
View monthly and
quarterly macro Brexit Industry
indicators to keep Economic
track of the UK Barometer Scenarios Forecast
Models
economy during
the Brexit process
Tool
Industries
Assess how much
growth different
Disposable Income Brexit scenarios
Income would shave off the
See how the UK social and Wealth baseline in selected
classes would swing upwards Distribution consumer markets
or downwards depending on Model
different Brexit scenarios
STRATEGY
Brexit scenario forecasting answers critical business questions
What will happen to the UK if the Brexit negotiations break down?
How would our target market be affected by different Brexit outcomes?
How can we stay ahead of shifts in the UK economic environment? Industry demand?
Consumer profile?
Is the UK economy crunching under the pressure of Brexit?
Should we be rethinking our strategy for the UK? Packaging sizes? Pricing?
Is it time to start looking into relocation opportunities to other countries?
STRATEGY
Case study: Finance companies planning to move out of London
 The UK is to exit the EU following the June 2016 referendum. Our baseline forecasts assume that UK-EU
negotiations reach a Free Trade Agreement with regulatory and non-tariff trade barriers, higher tariffs on
services, and the loss of EU passporting rights for the financial sector. Yet, if negotiations stall, UK-EU
trade relations could default to World Trade Organization (WTO) conditions with much higher trade barriers.
 In preparation for Brexit, financial services companies have started considering cities outside the UK as a
base for their European operations, which ultimately is bad news for London as the world's leading financial
centre. HSBC, for example, is prepared to move 1,000 staff from London to Paris. Deutsche Bank has
warned that up to 4,000 jobs could be moved to Frankfurt. JPMorgan will also move hundreds of London
jobs to Dublin, Frankfurt and Luxembourg. Standard Chartered has chosen Frankfurt for its EU base.
Source: Euromonitor International Brexit Scenarios Tool
STRATEGY
Case study: No-Deal Brexit to hit packaged food prospects
 According to our Industry Forecast Models, looking at

forecast real value growth in a No-Deal Brexit scenario,
alcoholic drinks, soft drinks and packaged food would be
the most affected industries in the UK consumer market.
 No-Deal Brexit is a particularly significant risk to the
packaged food industry, which is forecast to lack growth
momentum after Brexit. Categories driven by impulse
consumption and premiumisation are likely to be the
most affected, with consumers expected to switch to
cheaper options. Snacks category would be hit the most
under the No-Deal Brexit scenario in Packaged Food.
 For alcoholic drinks, the potential of reverting to WTO
rules in case of a No-Deal Brexit that would require fresh
negotiations could lead to the loss of protection for
categories such as Scotch whisky. Due to a weak pound
and new tariffs, the prices of products imported from the
EU, such as wine, are likely to rise as well.
 In soft drinks, a No-Deal Brexit is likely to result in a shift
towards locally-sourced soft drinks. These brands will
have a lower unit price compared to internationally
produced soft drinks, as they will not be subject to newly-
introduced trade tariffs. To sustain export demand,
British soft drinks producers might consider setting up
their plants in the EU. Source: Euromonitor International Brexit Scenarios Tool
STRATEGY
INTRODUCTION
CONCLUSION
Anticipate cost fluctuations to 2030: Commodity Price Model
• Understand pricing pressures for FMCG categories

• Commodities are an essential component in the cost structure of many FMCG categories.
Understanding the historical price swings of commodities helps you to see where pricing pressures
1. are coming from and whether they are passed onto consumers or accommodated by
manufacturers.
• Make budget allowances for potential commodity prices shocks

• The econometric model provides forecasts for over 60 commodities, from salmon prices to red hot
2. chilli peppers, that are available up to 2030.
• Understand assumptions behind the forecasts

• Forecasts are as good as assumptions underpinning them, yet the assumptions are rarely stated by
forecast providers. We give the visibility into what assumptions we have included for inflation,
3. exchange rates and other key macro variables.
• Save time by leveraging the interactive features

• The core set of assumptions going into the forecasts are adjustable, letting you create your own
4. forecasts by inputting your own judgement to the model.
STRATEGY
Commodity Price Model methodology at a glance
 We track monthly commodities data. Forecasts are also updated monthly. Date of last update is indicated in
the commodities model.
Historic
commodity
prices
Macro variable Econometric Analyst Published

forecasts (ex. model check forecast
rates, CPI, etc)
Financial
commodity
futures and
indexes
STRATEGY
Keep track of key commodities to answer critical business questions
How are the costs of our key commodities expected to fluctuate to 2030?
Should we enter an annual contract of buying supplies for our restaurant chain at a certain
negotiated price for several years?
What are the key indicators that have an impact on a certain commodity price?
What effect would a spike in the US dollar exchange rate have on global energy prices?
How can we integrate forecasts that are already used by our organisation to ensure
consistent assumptions throughout all inputs?
STRATEGY
Case study: Energy companies preparing for a price rise
 Commodity prices have been subject to

frequent fluctuations with major implications
for businesses. For example, the falling oil
price is good for the manufacturing industry
given the lower cost of production, but
particularly favourable for the automobile
industry.
 The Natural Resources page provides
commodity price forecasts, as well as the
Commodity Price Model that not only shows
the price forecast up to 2030 but allows users
to tweak assumptions to match their
expectations.
 The price of natural gas is projected to
increase alongside inflation, as shown in the
commodity price model. Manufacturers would
benefit from lowering their exposure to natural
gas. Minsheng New Energy, a unit of China's
private investment group Minsheng
Investment, is building a US$2.3 billion solar
Source: Euromonitor International Commodity Price Model farm in the north western Ningxia region to
reduce exposure to the fluctuating energy
price.
STRATEGY
Case study: Commodity prices not often passed on to consumers
 With regards to prices, pasta, noodles and rice are all reliant on harvests, which are becoming increasingly
unpredictable. As demonstrated above, rice has endured several bad harvests globally in the last decade.
In 2008 and 2014, for example, the price per tonne increased from US$400 to US$1,000. Around 60.0% of
all rice production stems from four markets. The impact of El Niño could create further turbulence in
commodity prices in 2016 and 2017.
 Commodity price rises appear to affect manufacturers more than consumers. Retailers are happy to
maintain low prices for private label staples, creating a race to the bottom for branded products to remain
competitive on price. Any commodity price increase is unlikely to be passed entirely on to consumers, so
hampering profit margins for producers.
 That said, the importance of staples to cooking means that price is not the most important driver of growth.
Population is a far greater influence on volume consumption growth of staples. Bar an unprecedented
surge in prices, the countries that are experiencing volume consumption growth will continue to be those
seeing large population increases.
Source: Euromonitor International Commodity Price Model
STRATEGY
INTRODUCTION
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSION
What Economies Analytics can help you achieve
• Plan for “what if” economic scenarios, such as Brexit, and stress-test key macro assumptions at
the push of a button. Analyse global and country-specific risks to future-proof strategy.
1
• Identify the strongest and weakest economies. Analyse monthly and quarterly data for early
warning signals, and drill down to the most important trends facing countries.
2
• Find new growth opportunities including market entry and product development. Benchmark
economies at a global and regional level.
3
• Understand commodity pricing pressures, which are an essential input cost for many FMCG
companies. Prepare for potential commodity price shocks.
4
• Empower business strategy by using our forecasts in business models and our sophisticated
visual insights in analysis.
5
STRATEGY
CONCLUSION
Macro Model in action
“Clients in the financial industry use

the Macro Model forecasts and
scenario shocks to populate their
models, set benchmarks for their
annual growth targets, analyse
geographic opportunities, and pull
together presentations for senior
managers.”
STRATEGY
CONCLUSION
Economic Barometer in action
“A client in governmental services liked the fact that Economic Barometer is very easy to use and
provides the flexibility to pick and choose indicators, making it a useful tool to have. The ability to
extract data into Excel format and to manipulate it for internal purposes was particularly attractive
and value-adding.”
STRATEGY
CONCLUSION
Commodity Price Model in action
“A client in the audio appliances

industry uses the Commodity Price
Model regularly to prepare for
presentations to the company’s
executives and stakeholders. They
are using the tool to present global
pricing trends and projections for
metals.”
STRATEGY
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Media Eghbal
Head of Countries’ Analysis
Connect via LinkedIn
Giedrius Daujotas
Analytics Manager
Ugne Saltenyte
Macro Analysis Manager
Experience more...
Economic analysis is an important factor in all aspects of building a Learn More
business strategy. Economic shifts and potential shock scenarios can To find out more about
have a big impact on how businesses should be thinking about their Euromonitor International's
short and long term strategy. By keeping track of the latest economic complete range of business
shifts you can evaluate the economic health of a country and stay intelligence on industries,
ahead of any early warning signs. countries and consumers please
visit www.euromonitor.com or
Learn more about the tools featured in this report: contact your local Euromonitor
International office:
• Macro Model Bangalore +91 (80) 67740500
Cape Town +27 21 524 3000
• Economic Barometer Chicago +1 312 922 1115
Dubai +971 4 372 4363
• Brexit Scenarios Tool
London +44 0 20 7251 8024
• Commodity Price Model Santiago +56 22 915 7200
Shanghai +86 21 6032 1088
Request a live demonstration to learn more about how Euromonitor Singapore +65 6429 0590
International’s Analytics tools can help your business.
Sydney +61 0 2 9581 9200
Tokyo +81 3 3436 2100
Vilnius +370 5 243 1577
STRATEGY

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WHY ECONOMIES ANALYTICS MATTER FOR

Why Economies Analytics matters for your strategy

Analytics help with strategic decisions

Economies Analytics at a glance

Build up an economic picture of your markets

What Economies Analytics can help you achieve

Quantify the real-life impact of economic events: Macro Model

• Quarterly forecast restatements

• “What if?” scenario analysis

• Interactive, user-defined scenario analysis

• Stress-test business plans

• Picking the right markets for growth

Macro Model methodology at a glance

 Our baseline macroeconomic forecasts are

Macro forecasts help answer critical business questions

How can we quantify the real-life impact of complex economic events?

Which countries feature the lowest risks, to be considered for expansion?

Can we plan ahead and be prepared for another global crisis?

How can we develop a systematic strategy for scenario sensitivity analysis?

Where can we find macro forecasts to populate our financial models?

Case study: US automakers opting for domestic investments

 Globalisation is facing one of the biggest political tests in

Case study: Beauty brands preparing for slowing emerging markets

 Making systematically-sound strategic

Track where your markets are heading: Economic Barometer

• Cross-country overview of the latest macroeconomic data

• Early-warning signals about upcoming changes

• Complete economic profile for emerging and developed economies

• Keeping track of recent changes

Economic Barometer methodology at a glance

Benefits of Passport database… … and much more!

Track economic performance to answer critical business questions

In what direction are the economies of our target markets heading?

How has market performance changed since the last month/quarter?

How does the economic performance of a market compare regionally/globally?

What are the drivers behind market growth?

Should we be worried about falling retail sales? Or rising inflation?

Is it a good time to change product pricing strategy? Or launch new outlets?

How can we benchmark government finances within a regional/global context?

Case study: Food manufacturers reduce packaging sizes in the UK

Case study: Chinese foodservice grows amid economic slowdown

Test the impact of different Brexit outcomes: Brexit Scenarios Tool

• “What if?” scenario analysis

• Complete economic profile for the UK economy

• Early-warning signals about upcoming changes

• Stay informed with the Brexit process as it unfolds

• Benefits of multiple tools in a single location

Brexit Scenarios Tool methodology at a glance

Brexit scenario forecasting answers critical business questions

What will happen to the UK if the Brexit negotiations break down?

How would our target market be affected by different Brexit outcomes?

Is the UK economy crunching under the pressure of Brexit?

Is it time to start looking into relocation opportunities to other countries?

Case study: Finance companies planning to move out of London

Source: Euromonitor International Brexit Scenarios Tool

Case study: No-Deal Brexit to hit packaged food prospects

 According to our Industry Forecast Models, looking at

Anticipate cost fluctuations to 2030: Commodity Price Model

• Understand pricing pressures for FMCG categories

• Make budget allowances for potential commodity prices shocks

• Understand assumptions behind the forecasts

• Save time by leveraging the interactive features

Commodity Price Model methodology at a glance