Global

Demography

R e p o r t e r :
G I E N E V I E V E B U S T I L L A
 1. Global Demography
a. The Definition
b. Why Demography Matters…
Outline 2. Difference between Fertility and Birth Rate
3. Demographic Transition and its Stages
(Report)
4. Countries’ life expectancy, fertility, and mortality rate.
5. Age Structure
What is Global Demography?
DEMOGRAPHY is …
- the study of human populations
– their size, composition and
distribution across space – and
the process through which
populations change.

- Births, deaths and migration are

the ‘big three’ of demography,
jointly producing population
stability or change.

S L I D E 3
 People Have Ever Lived on Earth

108.4 Billion Births

Total Population: As of March 5, 2021 (9:04 am PHT)

7,849,974,769
S L I D E 4
TOP 20 LARGEST COUNTRIES BY POPULATION - 2021
As of March 4, 2021 (11:51am PHT)

S L I D E 5
 Why Demography Matters?
1. For the Economy
Population studies help us to know how far the growth rate of the
economy is keeping pace with the growth rate of population.
2. For Society
When population is increasing rapidly, the society is faced with
innumerable problems. Shortages of basic services like water, electricity,
transport and communications, public health, education, etc.
3. For Political System
It is on the basis of the census figures pertaining to different areas that
the demarcation of constituencies is done by the election commission of
a country.
 Birth Rate Fertility Rate

• the TOTAL NUMBER of live births • the number of live births in a year
per 1,000 individuals of a per 1,000 women of reproductive
population in a year age in a population

• a population is not age-specific • a population is age-specific.

• less refined way to • more refined way to

measure fertility measure fertility

S L I D E 7
Demographic Transition
Demographic transition is a
singular historical period during
which mortality and fertility
rates decline from high to low
levels in a particular country or
region. The broad outlines of
the transition are similar in
countries around the world, but
the pace and timing of the
transition have varied
considerably.
Demographic Transition Model was initially S L I D E 8
proposed by demographer Warren Thompson.
 STAGE 1
Stage one is characterized by high
birth rates and high fluctuating
death rates resulting in small
population growth. Plagues, diseases
and poor nutrition keep mortality
high.

Example
1. Peru

S L I D E 9
 STAGE 2
Stage two is characterized by improved
heath care, sanitation and increased
food supplies leading to a rapid fall in
death rates.

Birth rates are still high, so there is a

rapid increase, in population numbers.

Example:
1. Afghanistan
2. Pakistan
3. Other parts of Africa
S L I D E 1 0
 STAGE 3
Stage three is characterized by a
decreased growth rate of a population.
Birth rates begin to fall.

The developing countries are:

1. China
2. India
3. Singapore
4. Philippines
5. Colombia
6. Brazil
7. Mexico, etc.
S L I D E 1 1
 STAGE 4
In Stage 4, birth and death rates are both low,
stabilizing the population. These countries tend to
have stronger economies, higher levels of education,
better healthcare, a higher proportion of working
women, and a fertility rate hovering around two
children per woman.
Example:
1. United Kingdom
2. France
3. Canada
4. USA
5. United Arab Emirates
6. Thailand
7. Hongkong
8. Australia
9. New Zealand
10. Republic of Korea, etc. S L I D E 1 2
 STAGE 5
Stage five is characterized by a lower
birth than death rate.

Example
1. Japan
2. Russian Federation
3. Germany
4. Spain
5. Italy
6. Portugal, etc.
S L I D E 1 3
Demographic Transition

• The transition started in mid or late 1700s in Europe. During that time,
death rates and fertility began to decline.

HIGH to LOW fertility happened

200 years in FRANCE
100 years in United States

In other parts of the world the transition began later.

S L I D E 1 4
FRANCE USA
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE
S L I D E 1 5
 “Baby Boom”

• "Baby boomer" is a term used to describe a person who was born

between 1946 and 1964.
• Baby Boom in the developing world was caused by the decline of
infant and child mortality rate.
• The WEST experienced baby boom that resulted from rising
births.

S L I D E 1 6
• According to Maddison (2001), life expectancy in India was
only 24 years in the early 20th century and same life
(30+ years) expectancy occurred in China in 1929 until 1931.

China’s life expectancy from two source India

S L I D E 1 7
Japan Fertility Rate from 1800 to 2020

• Fertility decline in
Asia begin in
1950s and so on.

• In Japan, the total

fertility rate did
not drop below 5
births per woman
from 1930 - 1939.

S L I D E 1 8
 Japan (1950 to 2100)

DEATH RATE

In 20th Century,
mortality rate
decline in
AFRICA and
ASIA with the
exception of
JAPAN
FERTILITY RATE

S L I D E 1 9
• During the 19th Century, Europe had an increased in share in the
world’s population, from 20.8% to 24.7%.
• While ASIA’s contribution dropped from 64.9% to 57.4%
S L I D E 2 0
The United Nations
projected that
population growth
will be shifted toward
AFRICA.

2150 – The region’s

share to the world
population will be
almost 20% much
greater than its share
in

1820 - 7%
1900 - 6%
S L I D E 2 1
With (medium) fertility rate of 2.5 (2020-2025) S L I D E 2 2
JAPAN
NOTE:
The dependency ratio is a measure of the
number of dependents aged zero to 14 and
over the age of 65, compared with the total
population aged 15 to 64.
AGE STRUCTURE
The overall trend in Japan and the
West was downward until 1950. Their
dependency ratio was close to 0.5.
It only increased, although
temporarily, when the baby boom
after the Second World War occurred.
Japan’s dependency ratio
increased between 1888 and 1920.
Its dependency ratio was higher than
the West between 1920 and the early
1950s.
It dropped in 1970 and later since its
decline in childbearing during the
1950s and low fertility rates in recent
years. S L I D E 2 3
 Developing countries like India and Philippines had
higher dependency ratios than the west in 1900.
INDIA (1950)

• Great increase in dependency ratio was caused by

the decline in infant and child mortality rate, high
fertility rates, with its peak around 1970.

• Dependency ratios started to disappear because there

is a decline in global birth rate.
• The Gap in fertility between West and the less
PHILIPPINES 2018

developed country became smaller by the 21st Century.

• The aging of populations will cause a rise in

dependency ratio, starting west.

S L I D E 2 4
QUICK SUMMARY

S L I D E 2 5
 QUESTION:
Is Japan underpopulated or overpopulated country? And why?

S L I D E 2 6
Thank You
For Listening!
 Reference
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