S.

No Date Week Week Pointers Strategy

The week before shifted from IMBALANCE 1. Bull put spread with a
TO BALANCE, from uptrend to sideways, SHORT CALL, as expected
and was expecting a Inventory prices to not rise above
adjustment, and some sideways activity. A 14600/630, and expected
short term balance area to form between LOW VOLATILITY
14630 to 250/300, with a MEAN at 14455.
Thus expected EXPIRY to end around this
MEAN between 14400-500
15th to
15th Jan 21st Jan
1 2021 2021

2. Long condor as expected a

RANGE MOVEMENT and
prices to ed near MEAN

22nd to The last week was expected to join in back Long Call Butterfly as
28th Jan to the UPTREND. But the fall of 15th-18th expecting rang bound and
2021 Jan was not just a INVENTORY moderate volatility
ADJUSTMENT BREAK, for the mid term.
Because again when auction made a new
SWING HIGH on 21st, it failed to sustain
and now is back to the short term balance
area of 14250-700. This shows that we can
expect MORE OF BALANCE for couple of
weeks, before this balance turns to
imbalance. For now the buyers and sellers
are balanced and winner is yet to be
declared. So even for next week we can
expect auction to sustain this balance with
a MEAN at 14460. The demand and supply
zones to be maintained and view negates
below 14200 as below that looks very
weak till 13700.

2 22nd Jan
Expect an EXPIRY between 14450-600
Supply zone 14600-800
Demand zone 14200-350
Strategies for balance and moderate
volatility
 The week was expected to end with
BALANCE near the MEAN, 14460. But the
last 3 days development have not been in
this favour. We see BEARS getting
stronger, probe below 14300 has
sustained today first half and we may see
another LEG DOWN. If close below 14250,
will be followed by more downfall. So
establishing a BEAR CALL SPREAD for the
POSSIBLE FALL to come till EXPIRY

25/1/21 22nd to 28 Bear Call Spread

But since auction yet to break the SHORT
TERM BALANCE low 14200, will take a
MILD BEARISH position, but covering the
short too. Hence the bear call spread is
apt for this strategy

As BULLISH on VOLATILITY,
and neutral veiw mostly
because of bear run followed
by possible seller exhaution.
Option chain shows strong
RESISTANCE at 14000, fresh
The last week showed a BEAR RUN after SHORT CALLS added from
breaking 14200, and the bear call spread 13800-600. Put side max OI
worked out great. This week the fall 13800, LONG PUTS added
continued. But the last 2 days have been between 13600-800, weak
an OVERLAP in VALUE at a HVN zone , support at 13500, and possible
13900-700 roughly. The fall was expected support at 13000. BEARISH
to go to 13700 as no strong support till from option chain. But neutral
there. Now that it has shown some signs on MP. MAY HAVE TO CLOSE
of SELLER EXHAUSTION, we may see some on BUDGET DAY ITSELF
halt and possible pull back, if auction
doesnt probe below 13500, another HVN.
This week starts with the BUDGET
SESSION. So expecting HIGH VOLATILITY.
And going with a NEUTRAL VIEW with a
1 29/1/21 29th to 4thless risky stragtegy, given the news.
Can possibly build a better strategy POST
BUDGET

The rally on budget day was a 600 point
up move bringing auction back above
14000/14200, both major resistances.
Thus taking a BULLISH position for this
week expiry
Bull spread with a covr in case
of a fall below 14200(own
spread)

2 1/2/2021 29th to 4th

Taken at 3:0 pm 1st feb
14200 selected as ITM, 14700
for the expected rally up and
14300 for protecting fall
downside below 14200
 The price and value sustaining above
14200, and previous SWING HIGH gone so
3 2/2/2021 29th to 4thtaking another bull strategy for expiry Bull call spread
The last week was a 1000 point volatile
week with all days OTF up and making
new swing high just below 15000. This
week if break of 15000 we can see sharp
rally upside and imbalance will continue,
but break of 14850-900 will put auction to
balance, and down to 14700-500. But last
few days pointers suggest bullishness on
both MP and option data, so applying 2
strategies, one mild bullish and other
moderately bullish
1 5/2/2021 5th to 11t
2 5/2/2021 5th to 11th Feb 2021
3 12/2/2021 12th to 18th Feb 2021
The week looks like BALANCE forming and Long Condor for expiry
expecting an EXPIRY betweem 15100-200, between 15100-200
as major resistance at 15300 and major
support at 15000
14500 selected as expect
support here, and 15000 as
many call writers on this
Mild bullish(own strategy)
with support as 14500, and
max profit at 14700-750, mild
profit if above 15000, loss only
below 14500. This because
some signs of balance on MP
seen with mixed view on
option chain
All strikes expiry 11th Feb
Key in these 14700 CE, will be
game changer
Bullish strategy if 15000
breaks. But risky as directional
view taken
Bull call spread
Breakeven above 14950-15000
Max profit 15100-200= 5800
 Max Loss= 2200

The second butterfly spread is more Long call butterfly for max
specific with max profit at 15100 profit at 15100
Max profit at 15100= 6300
Max loss= 930

BIT SPECIFIC but profitable

The poor trade facilitation last week has

played out clearly and we see a slightly
longer term BALANCE setting in. Auction is
carefully mapping the zone from 15400
downwards in search of a lower support
zone. All signs of balance seen. Staying
below 15000 can be bearish for the week
and also expect a break of 14900, support
for the current swing high. Next probe
zones are 14700-14500. This view will be
negated if auction sustains back above Bear Put spread for profit
4 19/2/21 19th to 25 15000 below 14950

Bear put spread for profit

below 14850
This spread is slightly OTM ie
lower
 This week already booked profit off 2
BEAR STRATEGIES, as auction fell below
15000 to search for the bottom of the
balance that is setting in MID TERM. Today
the demand was seen at a suspected
support of 14700. As yesterday low of
14650 was not taken out and day formed
a WIDE DISTRIBUTION above 14700,
suggesting ABSORBTION of supply and
possible reversal from here. So expecting
RALLY back up from this demand as
auction is in BALANCE, and lower extreme
is SECURE. Expecting expiry close between
15000-100, could also rally up. So taking
BULLISH SPREADS, with support at 14700.
Close of positions if fall below 14800-700

5 23rd Feb 2019th to 25 Bull Put Spread

Has a 50-50 chance, as auction can fall further to 14500

The last week had shown some support

forming at 14700, and possible balance
area low there, but the high was not
confirmed. Expectation was bullish and
then go into balance this week. The bullish
run did happen but the auction stalled at
previuos balance area mean 15180(area
15400-14900). Strong island day and trend
down day seen in the last 2 days of last
week. Suggesting more bears to play out.
The downside 14700 is gone, with next
HVN 14500 tagged. The nuances are
bearish and so the strategies will be
bearish for the week and expecting high
volatility cause if 14500 goes we havea
6 26th Feb 26th Feb t clean fall till 14158, probably till 14370 Bear call spread
 The day showed rejection in C-D at 14960,
a poor low. Was expecting rejection
between 14950-15000, given the
resistance zone. So expecting 15000 to be
the new balance high and auction should
7 2nd March same as abmean revert from here. Bear call spread
This gave me a negative delta
of -37, with positive theta. All
in favour of sell

The last week was a bullish run after the

SUPPORT area 14700-800 came up
strongly with DEMAND. Smart money
protected this zone and we saw a slow
and steady bull rally all the way to the FEB
SWING HIGH. The auction reached 15300-
400 supply zone last 2 days. This has been
a SUPPLY area for the last swing high seen
in FEB. And the auction though a strong
bull rally all week could not take this out.
Suggesting the long term balance that we
are suspecting is still the plan. The auction
should now stay between 15400-14700
balance zone. Given this, today we saw
the rejection from this supply area and so
can trigger BEARISH strategies for the
weak. So the MEAN REVERSION can work Bear Call Spread (with ATM
8 4th March 5th-10th Mhere for next few days. strikes)
Entered today at 15150 future price levels
as aution showed congestion just below
yesterday SINGLES K 15230. Although
auction didnt go into 15300-400 supply
area, this singles rejection with knowing
supply above 15300 and congestion seen
below the singles, with break of 25th POC
15130, that being a WIDE NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION, and the P-distribution
today after trend day yesterday, meaning
PROFIT BOOKING. All nuances pointing out
bulls getting EXHAUSTED, and so mean
reversion should work. So short
D -14.43, T 34, G 0, V 9.7
Max Profit
Max Loss
Profit below
Strikes Premiums Quantity At Expiry PnL Comments
1. Buy 14300 PE 21st J 87 75 0.15 Total 110 Extremely risky, as sold CE
+110 without cover. Also VOLATILITY
was high

2. Sell 14400 PE 120 75 0.4

3. Sell 14600 CE 74 75 2.3
206 75 243 30 Conservative but SAFE. Even not
much affected by VOLATILITY
1. Buy 14350 CE Total + 30
2. Sell 14400 Ce 171 75 192
3. Sell 14600 Ce 75 75 0.35
4. Buy 14650 CE 59 75 0.05

1. Sell 2 lots 14500 109.15 150 0 -42 This could have been closed on
CE 25th, when we saw a fall below
14200, breaking the SHORT
TERM BALANCE ZONE , so would
have EXITED AT COST, by 25th
Afternoon. Cause then only take
the BEAR STRATEGY which is
below. AT EXPIRY costed -42
points

Total -42
2. Buy 1 lot 14300 CE 222 75 0
3. Buy 1 lot 14700 CE 40.75 75 0
 150 75 0 75 This made a GOOD PROFIT. Was
SAFE ad yet a reasonable profit
at EXPIRY of +75 points

1. Buy 1 lot 14200 CE Total +75

225 75 0 SO NET FOR THE WEEK 30 points
with both strategies together

2. Sell 1 lot 14100 CE

Closed on 29th 3:00 pm itself

with loss of 2377. Closed
because 13700 broken and
closing at lows, so will wait for
budget day to take another
position. As below 13700, quick
1. Buy 1 lot 14000 CE 92 75 fall to 13500 expected

2. Sell 2 lots 13700 CE 207 150

3. Buy 1 lot 13400 CE 385 75 Loss -2377

Closed next day on 2nd Feb at

200 points or 15000 Rs profit as
this was a bull rally expected
post budget, with the 14200
1. Buy 1 lot 14200 CE 169 75 530 writers going off for a toss
2. Buy 1 lot 14700 CE 22 75 130

3. Sell 1 lot 14300 CE 280 75 -430

Profit 230
 Closed on 3rd when price
pentrated 14900 above, so
selling 15000 would be risky if
price crossed 15000. So max gain
expected here

1. Buy 1 lot 14500 CE 187 75 336 149

2. Sell 1 lot 15000 CE 17 75 1.7 15.3

Profit 164.3

Exited after first half as auction

seemed not even to fall below
15100. So chances of reaching
below 14900 dimiished post 12
1. Buy 1 lot 14850 CE 199.35 75 310 pm
2. Sell 1 lot 14700 PE 83.35 75 1
3. Sell 1 lot 14700 CE 336 75 453
4. Buy 1 lot 14500 PE 46.45 75 1
Max profit 12500
Max loss 2000
Total PnL 30

Exited at 12 pm as no strength
seen to move up beyong 15150,
constant rejection in 30 mins
with poor high. So strikes in this
bullish strategy will only decay.
1. Buy 1 lot 14850 PE 122 75 3
2. Sell 1 lot 15500 PE 594 75 386
Max profit 35000
Max loss 13000
Total PnL 80

Exit at 12 pm. Good exit as

expect support at 15100-50 and
1. Buy 1 lot 14900 CE 333.95 75 252 decay expected to cut premium
2. Buy 1 lot 15300 CE 81 75 2.5
3. Sell 1 lot 15000 CE 255.4 75 154
4. Sell 1 lot 15200 CE 127 75 17
Total PnL 50

1. Buy 1 lot 15000 PE 64

2. Buy 1 lot 15200 CE 126
3. Sell 1 lot 15100 CE 184
4. Sell 1 lot 15100 PE 94

So ATM straddle at
15100 so expiry at Exit at 12 pm. Good exit as
15100 fetched MAX expect support at 15100-50 and
PROFIT decay expected to cut premium
Total PnL 30

Exit on Monday itself, at 2:15 pm

as price reached 14700, first
target achieved which was
expected near expiry. Can
expect some demand here, if not
1. Buy 1 lot 15000 PE 103 75 350 can fall to 14500. For that
2. Sell 1 lot 14700 PE 63 75 120 keeping the other bear strategy.
Max profit below
14700 19000 PnL points 190
Max loss above
14950 3000 PnL Rs/ Rs 14250

Exit on Tuesday 23rd as price

didn’t penetrate yesterday low.
Demand seems to be coming in
and 14700 could be the new
BALANCE low that auction was in
search on the lower side. So a
balance area between 15400-
14700, decent 700 point range
1. Buy 1 lot 14900 PE 92 75 120 for MID TERM BALANCE

2. Buy 1 lot 14700 PE 44 75 60

Max Profit below
14700 11000 Pnl 10
Max loss above
14850 3000 750 Rs

Exited on 25th Feb 21 at 10:25

am.The expected level for the
trade 15000-100 has reached
and is now rotational and being
near the balance area MEAN
may not shoot up further. It is
spending too much time here at
15150. May rally in second half,
but given monthly expiry, better
1. Sell 1 lot 15100 PE 352 75 29 to close trades before DECAY
2. Buy 1 lot 14700 PE 73 75 2
Profit above 14820 Net PnL 251
Max Profit 20900 PnL in Rs/- 18800
Max Loss 9000

Closed on 2nd March at 9:25 am.

Yesterday auction made VA
between 14700-800, and a move
above 14830 would mean this
was absorption of supply and
thus exit of bearish position. So
today when open was above
1. Sell 1 lot 14700 CE 218 75 240 14830, position exited.
2. Buy 1 lot 14950 CE 103 75 90
Profit below 14830
Max loss 10000 PnL -30
Max Profit 8600 PnL Rs -2250
 Exit today itself at 2:40 pm as
auction though has been
rejected from 14950-15000
1. Sell 1 lot 14800 CE 117 75 136 singles and day gap area, hasn’t
fallen as expected to fall after
reacting from a LOW VOL AREA.
And day VA is higher than
2. Buy 1 lot 15100 CE 20 75 21 yesterday and above 14830. The
day is neutral so 50-50 chance of
either side trend. With more
bullish nuances than bearish,
Max loss 15000 Pnl -20 exit is safer.
Max Profit 7500 Pnl Rs -1500

The other side to look at is that

Loss above 14860 the option chain was SUPER
BEARISH so the smart money
might be EXTING their long
positions in this time window
today in this sideways
congestion area. But this will be
true only with an open below
today low, which is a risky take.
As we can even have a GAP UP
open if this is absorption of
supply.

Exit on day of EXPIRY. Carried

the position as last 4 days were
all overlapping around the
MEAN of the balance 14700-
15400. MEAN-15000-
100.Everytime auction hardly
1. Sell 1 lot 15000 CE 423 75 382 moved away from mean, was
pulled back. So decided to just
check if this is ABSORPTION and
the move could be on either
side, or no move at all. So with
the bearish trade already in,
decided to shut if auction moves
above 15200. Which it did today
with CONVICTION, ie after
completing the downside fall to
 all overlapping around the
MEAN of the balance 14700-
15400. MEAN-15000-
100.Everytime auction hardly
moved away from mean, was
pulled back. So decided to just
check if this is ABSORPTION and
the move could be on either
side, or no move at all. So with
the bearish trade already in,
decided to shut if auction moves
above 15200. Which it did today
with CONVICTION, ie after
completing the downside fall to
yesterday VAH, and getting
rejecting into yest VA. Thus for
the expiry the OTFraming down
2. Buy 1 lot 15300 CE 258 75 203 stopped with 2 TPOs. Plus
PnL Rs 1031/- yesterday OPTION CHAIN also
12,300 Points 13 not bearish. The BELL DELTA for
the day stopped getting more
10,100 negative and started recovering.
15075 SO EXIT
GOOD EXIT, though
on expiry the 14500
CE gained another
50 points and 15000
CE reamined same,
as auction didn’t
cross 15000

GOOD EXIT, got max

possible profit

GOOD EXIT, though

till 3 pm the PE
gained 40 points
more. So next time
can hold the PE, as
anyways will decay
GOOD EXIT, as
waited for
confirmation that no
longer BEARISH for
the day.