Weekly Oilseeds Monitor

04th Apr’2022
 Commodity – Soybean
Fundamental Summary
Factor Impact

Market driving factors

Price Recap

Soybean NCDEX Spot, Last Closing Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago

Indore (INR/quintal) 7766 7777 7564 6210

Price Outlook (2-4 weeks)

Time frame 2-3 weeks 2 – 4 months

Price Direction Sideways Bearish

Price Range (INR/Qtl) 7000 –8200 6000 -8200

Price Forecast
2-3 weeks 2-4 Months
Commodity Loction Unit Price
Support Resistance Price Outlook Support Resistance Outlook

Soybean Indore INR/MT 7000 8200 Sideways 6000 8200 Bearish

Soymeal Indore INR/MT 60000 72000 Sideways 50000 72000 Bearish

Fundamental Analysis and Insights

Technical Analysis
 Soybean NCDEX Spot prices settled mostly unchanged from previous week at INR
7766 mark lower by INR 10/qtl. while staying subdued within previous weeks’ range
during concluded week.
 Ongoing pullback from Oct’21 is finding resistance around the upper bounds of
corrective channel on the weekly chart coinciding with 50% Fibonacci retracement
levels- INR 8000. Profit taking is likely to emerge around the same suggesting mixed
bias for coming weeks.
 The said pullback has unfolded in two equal swings during Oct-Nov’21 ranging from
INR 5265-6750 and Feb’22 ranging from 6360-7950 and subdued within a single
channel implying a corrective structure and resumption of broader downtrend forth.
 On the weekly chart momentum front, Stochastic (9,3,3) is flattening in
overstretched region suggesting a potential negative turnaround in momentum and
any further upswings to remain short lived. The Bollinger bands being penetrated
marginally to the upside are sloping north lagging far away from prices portraying
overstretched price structure within ongoing pullback suggesting any further
directional move to be preceded by sideways activity.
 The Average Directional Index (ADX-14) indicator measuring trend strength hovers
around 20 levels with a bearish crossover intact (-DI> +DI) intact suggesting lack of
directional bias on immediate front.
 Hence, prices likely to remain subdued below INR 8000-8200 levels and exhibit
sideways to bearish directional bias within INR 7000-8000 levels in forthcoming
weeks. Such activity may weaken the pullback momentum suggesting revival of
broader downtrend eyeing a retreat back towards INR 6500-6350 levels in medium
term.
 On the broader front, lower highs and lower lows sequence still remains intact on
weekly chart indicating bearish sentiments in coming months towards Oct-21 swing
lows- INR 5500 levels and lower.

Concisely, prices are likely to resume the broader downtrend eyeing INR 7200-6500
levels initially bearing negative bias and any further upside to remain capped below
INR 8000-8200 levels in forthcoming weeks.
 Price Recap of Soybean Meal
04/01/202 03/25/202 03/04/202 04/01/202
Location Unit 2 2 Weekly Change 2 Monthly Change 1 Yearly Change

Indore INR/MT 67,750 67,750 66,000 53,500

Unch +1750 +14,750

Argentin USD/
a MT 1

 Soy Meal Indore prices failing to sustain initial gains during concluded week and
settled unchanged at INR 67,750/tonne amidst mixed activity.
 A consolidation is underway on the weekly chart, with prices hovering around the
previous support turned resistance levels pegged around INR 68,000-70,000 while
 staying subdued within a corrective up sloping channel portraying mixed sentiments
on immediate front.
 Ongoing consolidation from previous weeks is slowing down the pullback
momentum while the lower high and lower low sequence is still intact portraying
bearish sentiments and broader downtrend is eyeing extension of ongoing move
towards Jan’20 highs- INR 50,000-55,000 levels subsequently in medium term
 Momentum indicator- Stochastic oscillator is seen to flatten around overextended
region suggesting any further upside to remain short lived while the Bollinger bands
are penetrated marginally to upside suggesting any further directional move to be
preceded by a consolidation.
 The ADX indicator is seen to hover below 20 readings suggesting non directional bias
with gradual divergence seen on +DI-DI lines suggesting weakening bullish
momentum.
 Hence, prices likely to remain capped below INR 70,000-72,000 levels and exhibit
sideways to bearish activity initially staying within INR 60,000-70,000 levels in
forthcoming weeks.
 On the lower side, interim support is seen around INR 50,000-52,000 mark while next
medium term downside projection is seen around INR 36,000-38,000 levels.
 Volatility likely to remain on medium side in coming weeks and expand gradually in
medium term.

Concisely, prices are likely to witness a transition from ongoing pullback while staying
subdued within INR 60,000-72,000 levels and subsequently resume the broader
downtrend eyeing INR 60,000-55,000 levels initially bearing negative bias in
forthcoming weeks.

International Scenario
 CBOT Soybean prices settled on negative note at USc 1582.60 levels sharply lower by
USc 127.6 than previous week.
 On the weekly chart, prices pulled back on aggressive note eyeing a retest of Jun’21
resistance turned support levels pegged around USc 1530-1490 levels, note that
another minor upswing may follow towards long term uptrend channel resistance
pegged around $1850 levels which shall mark culmination of ongoing impulsive rally.
 On the weekly chart momentum front, the stochastic oscillator is seen to turn lower
from overstretched region and the Bollinger bands continue to slope north lagging
away from prices portraying overstretched price structure.
 Hence, the recent pullback may be confined within USc 1530-1490 levels (100%
Fibonacci based projection w.r.t initial push lower USc 1765-1638) ahead of another
push higher eyeing USc 1850 levels in medium term.
 Subsequently, broader uptrend remains susceptible for profit taking instilling a
corrective push lower towards USc 1600-1550 in coming months.

Concisely, CBOT Soybean prices may exhibit sideways to bullish directional movement
honouring the range of USc 1490-1750 amid higher volatility in forthcoming weeks.
Concisely, CBOT Soymeal prices may exhibit sideways to bullish directional movement
honouring the range of USD 430-510 amid higher volatility in forthcoming weeks.