Lecture 4: Special Distribution Function & Joint Probability Distribution

Lecture 4: Special Distribution Function &
Joint Probability Distribution
Hengki Purwoto (Econ UGM) Statistics 2 : Lecture 4 March 8, 2021 1

0. Outline
1 Special Distribution Function

Motivation
2 Discrete Distribution
Binomial Probability Distribution
Poisson Probability Distribution
3 Continuous Distributions
Uniform Probability Distribution
Normal Probability Distribution
4 Joint Probability Distributions

Bivariate distributions
More than two random variables

1. Special Distribution Function
Motivation
In statistics, we’re dealing with population with different characteristic

The characteristic is described by a distribution
Knowing the distribution allows us to make better inference
There are so many distributions out there:
◮ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List of probability distributions
In this lecture, we will first discuss probability distributions that are
commonly used

2. Discrete Distribution
Bernoulli probability distribution
This is a distribution with only two outcomes

◮ Ex: tossing a coin
Suppose that we refer observing a head as a “success” and a tail
as a “failure”:
◮ the probability of head is p
◮ the probability of tail is 1 − p
What is the random variable?

The random variable X takes a value of 1 if heads are observed and
0 otherwise.
Such random variable is called a Bernoulli probability distribution.
The probability function of a Bernoulli random variable X is:
x 1−x
p x =P X=x = ቊp (1−p) x=0, 1
0 otherwise
where 0 ≤ p ≤ 1 is a parameter.
The characteristic is:
◮ E [X ] = p
◮ Var [X ] = p (1 − p)

We can repeat the Bernoulli trials many times to observe the

total number of successes
For example, we want to calculate the probability of k successes
in n Bernoulli trials.
This is referred to as the binomial probability distribution.

Binomial probability distribution
Definition
A binomial experiment is one that has the following properties:
1) the experiment consist of n trials; 2) each trial results in two
outcomes: success (S) and failure (F ); 3) the probability of success
in every trial is p ; 4) the outcome of the trials are independent; 5)
the random variable X is the number of successes in n trials.

▪ A fixed number of observations, n

▪ e.g., 15 tosses of a coin; ten light bulbs taken from a warehouse
▪ Two mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive categories
▪ e.g., head or tail in each toss of a coin; defective or not defective light bulb
▪ Generally called “success” and “failure”
▪ Probability of success is P, probability of failure is 1 – P
▪ Observations are independent
▪ The outcome of one observation does not affect the outcome of the other
▪ Constant probability for each observation
▪ e.g., Probability of getting a tail is the same each time we toss the coin

Possible Binomial Distribution Settings
• A manufacturing plant labels items as either defective or acceptable

• A firm bidding for contracts will either get a contract or not
• A marketing research firm receives survey responses of “yes I will buy”
or “no I will not”
• New job applicants either accept the offer or reject it

Developing the Binomial Distribution
• The number of sequences with x successes in n independent

trials is:
n!
Cnx =
x! (n − x)!
where n! = n·(n – 1)·(n – 2)· . . . ·1 and 0! = 1
• These sequences are mutually exclusive, since no two can

occur at the same time


Definition
A random variable X is said to have binomial probability distribution
with parameters (n, p) iff:
n x n−x
P X=x =p x = p q
x
n!
= px qn−x
x! n−x !


Example
What is the probability of one success in five observations
if the probability of success is 0.1?
x = 1, n = 5, and P = 0.1
n!
P(x = 1) = P X (1− P)n− X
x! (n − x)!
5!
= (0.1)1(1− 0.1)5−1
1! (5 − 1)!
= (5)(0.1)(0.9)4
= .32805

Shape of Binomial Distribution

• The shape of the binomial distribution depends on the values of
P and n
P(x) n = 5 P = 0.1
.6
▪ Here, n = 5 and P = 0.1 .4
.2
0 x
0 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) n = 5 P = 0.5
▪ Here, n = 5 and P = 0.5 .6
.4
.2
0 x
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mean and Variance of a Binomial Distribution
▪ Mean μ = E(x) = nP
▪ Variance and Standard Deviation
σ 2 = nP(1- P) σ = nP(1- P)
Where n = sample size

P = probability of success
(1 – P) = probability of failure

Theorem
If X is a binomial random variable with parameters n and p, then:
 = E [X ] = np
Var [X ] = np (1 − p) .

Binomial Characteristics
Examples
Mean P(x) n = 5 P = 0.1

μ = nP = (5)(0.1) = 0.5 .6
.4
σ = nP(1- P) = (5)(0.1)(1− 0.1) .2
= 0.6708 0 x
0 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) n = 5 P = 0.5
μ = nP = (5)(0.5) = 2.5 .6
.4
σ = nP(1- P) = (5)(0.5)(1− 0.5) .2
= 1.118 0 x
0 1 2 3 4 5

Using Binomial Tables
N x … p=.20 p=.25 p=.30 p=.35 p=.40 p=.45 p=.50

10 0 … 0.1074 0.0563 0.0282 0.0135 0.0060 0.0025 0.0010
1 … 0.2684 0.1877 0.1211 0.0725 0.0403 0.0207 0.0098
2 … 0.3020 0.2816 0.2335 0.1757 0.1209 0.0763 0.0439
3 … 0.2013 0.2503 0.2668 0.2522 0.2150 0.1665 0.1172
4 … 0.0881 0.1460 0.2001 0.2377 0.2508 0.2384 0.2051
5 … 0.0264 0.0584 0.1029 0.1536 0.2007 0.2340 0.2461
6 … 0.0055 0.0162 0.0368 0.0689 0.1115 0.1596 0.2051
7 … 0.0008 0.0031 0.0090 0.0212 0.0425 0.0746 0.1172
8 … 0.0001 0.0004 0.0014 0.0043 0.0106 0.0229 0.0439
9 … 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0016 0.0042 0.0098
10 … 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0010
Examples:
n = 10, x = 3, P = 0.35: P(x = 3|n =10, p = 0.35) = .2522
n = 10, x = 8, P = 0.45: P(x = 8|n =10, p = 0.45) = .0229

More Examples
The probability of stunting among poor children is 55%. If we
randomly pick 10 poor children, what is the probability that 4 poor
children experience stunted growth?
What is the probability that at least two poor children experience

stunted growth?

Poisson probability distribution
Suppose that A is an event of interest

A counting random variable counts the number of occurrences of A
We apply the Poisson distribution when:
◮ count the number of times an event occurs in a given continuous
interval
◮ the probability of occurrence in one subinterval is very small, the
same for all subintervals, and independent of the events in other
subintervals.

The Poisson probability distribution is characterized by λ

Poisson distribution attempts to model rare events:
◮ usually if p ≤ 0.1 and n ≥ 40.
Example:
◮ number of misprints in a book
◮ number of defective products in a production line
◮ radioactivity counts per unit time
◮ the number of plankton per aliquot of seawater
◮ bacterial colonies per petri plate in microbiological study

Definition
A discrete random variable X follows the Poisson probability
distribution with parameter λ > 0, Poisson (λ), if:
e− λ λx
P (X = x ) = f (x , λ) = f (x ) =
x!
where:
x = 0, 1, 2, …
P(x) = the probability of x successes over a given time or space, given 
 = the expected number of successes per time or space unit,  > 0
e = base of the natural logarithm system (2.71828...)
Theorem
If X is a Poisson random variable with parameter λ, then:
X = E [X ] = λ
Var [X ] = E [X - X] 2 = λ
where  = expected number of successes per time or space unit

Using Poisson Tables
X 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90
0 0.9048 0.8187 0.7408 0.6703 0.6065 0.5488 0.4966 0.4493 0.4066

1 0.0905 0.1637 0.2222 0.2681 0.3033 0.3293 0.3476 0.3595 0.3659
2 0.0045 0.0164 0.0333 0.0536 0.0758 0.0988 0.1217 0.1438 0.1647
3 0.0002 0.0011 0.0033 0.0072 0.0126 0.0198 0.0284 0.0383 0.0494
4 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0007 0.0016 0.0030 0.0050 0.0077 0.0111
5 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0004 0.0007 0.0012 0.0020
6 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0003
7 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Example: Find P(X = 2) if  = .50
e −  X e −0.50 (0.50)2
P( X = 2) = = = .0758
X! 2!

Graph of Poisson Probabilities
0.70
Graphically: 0.60
 = .50 0.50
= P(x) 0.40
X 0.50
0.30
0 0.6065
0.20
1 0.3033
2 0.0758 0.10
3 0.0126 0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
4 0.0016
5 0.0002 x
6 0.0000
7 0.0000
P(X = 2) = .0758

Poisson Distribution Shape
• The shape of the Poisson Distribution depends on the

parameter  :
 = 0.50  = 3.00
0.70 0.25
0.60
0.20
0.50
0.15
0.40
P(x)
P(x)
0.30 0.10
0.20
0.05
0.10
0.00 0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
x x

Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution
Let X be the number of successes from n independent trials,

each with probability of success P. The distribution of the
number of successes, X , is binomial, with mean nP. If the
number of trials, n , is large and nP is of only moderate size
(preferably nP ≤ 7 ), this distribution can be approximated by
the Poisson distribution with  = nP. The probability
distribution of the approximating distribution is
e −nP (nP)x
P(x) = for x = 0,1,2,...
x!

Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution
Theorem
If X is a binomial r.v. with parameters n and p, then for
each x = 0, 1, 2, . . . and as p → 0, n → ∞ with np = λ
constant:
n e−λ λx
lim px (1−p) n−x =
n→∞ p x!

More Examples
Let X be a Poisson random variable with λ = 1/3.

Find:
◮ P (X = 0)
◮ P (X ≥ 3)

3. Continuous Distributions
Uniform probability distribution

The uniform distribution is a probability distribution that has
equal probabilities for all possible outcomes of the random
variable.
f(x)
Total area under the
uniform probability
density function is 1.0
xmin xmax x
Example: A school bus arrives at stop every 30 minutes between 6 a.m.

and 11 p.m. Students arrive at the bus stop at random times. The time
that a student waits is uniformly distributed from 0 to 30 minutes.
where: f(x) = value of the density function at any x value

a = minimum value of x
b = maximum value of x

Mean and Variance of the Uniform Distribution
• The mean of a uniform distribution is
a+b
μ=
2
• The variance is
(b - a)2
σ2 =
12
where a = minimum value of x

b = maximum value of x

Example:
Uniform probability distribution over the range 2 ≤ x ≤ 6:
1
f(x) = 6 - 2 = .25 for 2 ≤ x ≤ 6
f(x)
a+b 2+6
μ= = =4
.25 2 2
(b - a)2 (6 - 2)2
σ2 = = = 1.333
2 6 x 12 12


More Examples
Suppose that we have a uniform probability distribution over

the range:
4 ≤ x ≤ 20
◮ Find the density function

◮ Find P (X > 6)
◮ Find E [X ]

Normal probability distribution
The normal distribution is the single most important distribution

in statistics
The normal distribution has a:
◮ bell shaped pdf
◮ symmetrical pdf
◮ equal mean, median, and mode
The location is determined by the mean, µ
The spread is determined by the standard deviation, σ
The random variable has an infinite theoretical range: − ∞ < x < ∞ .

Definition
A random variable X is said to have a normal probability distribution
with parameters µ and σ2 if it has a probability density function:
1 2 2
f x = e− x−μ /2σ
2πσ
for − ∞ < x < ∞ , − ∞ < µ < ∞ , and σ > 0.
where e = the mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828

π = the mathematical constant approximated by 3.14159
μ = the population mean
σ2 = the population variance
x = any value of the continuous variable, − < x < 

If µ = 0 and σ = 1, the distribution is referred to as the standard

normal random variable
In general,
X ∼ N ( µ, σ 2 )
We can always transform any normal random variable to standard

normal variable:
X − µ
∼ N (0, 1) .
σ

General Procedure for Finding Probabilities
To find P(a < X < b) when X is distributed normally:

▪ Draw the normal curve for the problem in terms of X
▪ Translate X-values to Z-values
▪ Use the Cumulative Normal Table

Finding Normal Probabilities

• Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0 and standard deviation 5.0.
Find P(X < 8.6)
X − μ 8.6 − 8.0
Z= = = 0.12
σ 5.0
μ=8 μ=0
σ = 10 σ=1
8 8.6 X 0 0.12 Z
P(X < 8.6) P(Z < 0.12)

Solution: Finding P(Z < 0.12)
Standardized Normal Probability P(X < 8.6)

Table (Portion)
= P(Z < 0.12)
z F(z) F(0.12) = 0.5478
.10 .5398
.11 .5438
.12 .5478
Z
.13 .5517 0.00
0.12

More Examples
For X ∼ N (0, 1), calculate P (Z ≥ 1.13)
For X ∼ N (5, 4), calculate P (−2.5 < X < 10).
For standard normal random variable Z , find the value of z0
such that:
◮ P (Z > z ) = 0.25
0

4. Joint Probability Distributions – Bivariate distributions
Dealing with more than one random variables

In practice, we are dealing with more than 1 random variables.
These variables may not be independent to each other.
For example:
◮ height and weight
◮ being poor and heigh
◮ being poor and educational attainment
In this section, we study the joint distribution of two variables:
bivariate distributions.

Joint probability function
Definition
Let X and Y be random variables. If both X and Y are discrete, then:
f (x , y ) = P (X = x , Y = y )
is called the joint probability mass function (joint pmf ) of X and Y .

Definition
If both X and Y are continuous then f (x , y ) is called the joint
probability density function (joint pdf ) of X and Y iff:
𝑏 𝑑
𝑃 𝑎 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 𝑏, 𝑐 ≤ 𝑌 ≤ 𝑑 = න න 𝑓 𝑥, 𝑦 𝑑𝑥𝑑𝑦
𝑎 𝑐


Example
Suppose that there are 8 red balls, 10 yellow balls, and 20 blue
balls in a bucket. A total of 10 balls are randomly selected from
this bucket. Let X = number of red balls and Y = number of
blue balls. Find the joint probability function of the bivariate
random variable (X , Y ).

Theorem
If X and Y are two random variables with joint probability
function f (x , y ), then:
f (x , y ) ≥ 0 for all x and y
If X and Y are discrete, then x , y f (x , y ) = 1
where the sum is over all values (x , y ) that are assigned nonzero
probabilities. If X and Y are continuous, then
∞ ∞
න න f x,y =1 .
−∞ −∞

Marginal distribution function
Suppose that we are given the joint probability function (pdf or pmf )*
We can obtain the probability distribution function of one of the
components through the marginals.
* Probability mass functions (pmf) are used to describe discrete probability

distributions. While probability density functions (pdf) are used to describe
continuous probability distributions.
Definition
The marginal pmf or pdf of X , fX (x ) is defined by:
∞
න 𝑓 𝑥, 𝑦 𝑑𝑦 𝑋, 𝑌 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑜𝑢𝑠
𝑓𝑥 𝑥 = −∞
෍ 𝑓 𝑥, 𝑦 𝑋, 𝑌 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑒
∀𝑦
similarly, fY (y ) is defined by:

∞
න 𝑓 𝑥, 𝑦 𝑑𝑥 𝑋, 𝑌 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑜𝑢𝑠
𝑓𝑦 𝑦 = −∞
෍ 𝑓 𝑥, 𝑦 𝑋, 𝑌 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑒
∀𝑥


Example
Find the marginal probability density function of random variable
X and Y
y
-2 0 1 4
-1 0.2 0.1 0 0.2
x
3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0
5 0.1 0 0 0

Conditional probability distribution
The conditional probability distribution of the random variable X

given Y is given by:
𝑓(𝑥, 𝑦)
𝑋, 𝑌 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑜𝑢𝑠
𝑓𝑦 (𝑦)
𝑓 𝑥𝑦 =𝑓 𝑥𝑌=𝑦 =
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥 , 𝑌 = 𝑦)
𝑋, 𝑌 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑒
𝑓𝑦 (𝑦)

Conditional probability distribution
Example
Let 1
𝑓(𝑥, 𝑦) = ቐ5 3𝑥 − 𝑦 1 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 2 ,1 ≤ 𝑦 ≤ 3
0 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
Find:
◮ fX (x ) and fY (y )
◮ f (x | y )
◮ f (x | Y = 1)

Expected Value
Definition
Let f (x , y) be the joint probability function. The expected value of
(X , Y ) is:
෍ 𝑥𝑦𝑓 𝑥, 𝑦 𝑋, 𝑌 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑒
𝑥,𝑦
𝐸 𝑋, 𝑌 = ∞ ∞
න න 𝑥𝑦𝑓 𝑥, 𝑦 𝑑𝑥𝑑𝑦 𝑋, 𝑌 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑜𝑢𝑠
−∞ −∞

Properties of Expected Value
Let X and Y be two random variables. Then:

◮ E [aX + bY ] = aE [X ] + bE [Y ]
◮ If X and Y are independent, then
E [XY ] = E [X ] E [Y ]

Conditional Expectation
Definition
Let X and Y be jointly distributed with pmf or pdf f (x , y ).
Then, the conditional expectation of X given Y = y is:
෍ 𝑥𝑓 𝑥|𝑦 𝑋, 𝑌 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑒
𝑥
𝐸 𝑋|𝑌 = 𝑦 = ∞
න 𝑥𝑓 𝑥|𝑦 𝑑𝑥 𝑋, 𝑌 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑜𝑢𝑠
−∞

Conditional Expectation
Example
Let
1
𝑓(𝑥, 𝑦) = ቐ5 3𝑥 − 𝑦 1 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 2 ,1 ≤ 𝑦 ≤ 3
0 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
Find:
◮ E [X | Y = 1]

Covariance and Correlation
Definition
The covariance between two random variables X and Y is defined by:
σXY = Cov (X , Y ) = E (X − µX ) (Y − µY ) = E (XY ) − µX µY

where µX = E (X ) and µ Y = E (Y ). The correlation coefficient is
defined by: Cov(X,Y)
ρ x,y =
Var X Var(Y)

Covariance
If small values of X (X − µX ) < 0 are correlated with small values

of Y (Y − µY ) < 0, then the covariance is positive.
If small values of X (X − µX ) < 0 are correlated with large values
of Y (Y − µY ) > 0, then the covariance is negative.
Covariance is a signed measure of the variance of Y relative to X
If X and Y are independent, then Cov (X , Y ) = 0. .

Correlation
Correlation is the measure of the linear relationship between the random

variables X and Y . If Y = aX + b, a  0, then ρ (x , y ) = 1.
Unlike covariance, the correlation coefficient of X and Y is
dimensionless.

Properties of Covariance and Correlation
The properties of covariance and correlation coefficient:
◮ −1 ≤ ρ ≤ 1
◮ If X and Y are independent, then ρ = 0.
◮ If Y = aX + b, then:
1 𝑖𝑓 𝑎 > 0
𝐶𝑜𝑣 𝑋, 𝑌 = ቊ
−1 𝑖𝑓 𝑎 < 0
◮ If U = a 1 X + b 1 and V = a 2 Y + b 2 , then:
𝐶𝑜𝑣 𝑈, 𝑉 = 𝑎1 𝑎2 𝐶𝑜𝑣(𝑋, 𝑌)
and
𝜌𝑥𝑦 𝑖𝑓 𝑎1 𝑎2 > 0
𝜌𝑢𝑣 = ቊ
−𝜌𝑥𝑦 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
◮ Var (aX + bY ) = a2Var (X ) + b2Var (Y ) + 2abCov (X , Y )

4. Joint Probability Distributions – Multivariate distributions
Sums of random variables
Let X1, X2, . . . , Xk be k random variables with means µ 1, µ2,…, µk

and variances σ21, σ22 , … , σ2k . Then:
E (X1 + X 2 + . . . + Xk ) = µ 1 + µ 2 + . . . + µ k

4. Joint Probability Distributions – Multivariate distributions
Sums of random variables
Suppose that X1, X2,…, Xk are independent random variables. Then:
𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋1 + 𝑋2 + ⋯ + 𝑋𝑘 ) = 𝜎12 +𝜎22 + ⋯ + 𝜎𝑘2
If X1, X2, . . . , Xk are not independent random variables. Then:

𝐾−1 𝐾
𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑋1 + 𝑋2 + ⋯ + 𝑋𝑘 = 𝜎12 +𝜎22 +⋯+ 𝜎𝑘2 + 2 ෍ ෍ 𝐶𝑜𝑣 (𝑋𝑖 , 𝑋𝑗 )

𝑖=1 𝑗=𝑖+1

Lecture 4: Special Distribution Function & Joint Probability Distribution

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Lecture 4: Special Distribution Function &

Joint Probability Distribution

Hengki Purwoto (Econ UGM) Statistics 2 : Lecture 4 March 8, 2021 1

1 Special Distribution Function

4 Joint Probability Distributions

Hengki Purwoto (Econ UGM) Statistics 2 : Lecture 4 March 8, 2021 2

In statistics, we’re dealing with population with different characteristic

Hengki Purwoto (Econ UGM) Statistics 2 : Lecture 4 March 8, 2021 3

Bernoulli probability distribution

This is a distribution with only two outcomes

Hengki Purwoto (Econ UGM) Statistics 2 : Lecture 4 March 8, 2021 4

Hengki Purwoto (Econ UGM) Statistics 2 : Lecture 4 March 8, 2021 5

Bernoulli probability distribution

We can repeat the Bernoulli trials many times to observe the

Hengki Purwoto (Econ UGM) Statistics 2 : Lecture 4 March 8, 2021 6

Binomial probability distribution

Hengki Purwoto (Econ UGM) Statistics 2 : Lecture 4 March 8, 2021 7

Binomial probability distribution

▪ A fixed number of observations, n

Hengki Purwoto (Econ UGM) Statistics 2 : Lecture 4 March 8, 2021 8

Possible Binomial Distribution Settings

• A manufacturing plant labels items as either defective or acceptable

Hengki Purwoto (Econ UGM) Statistics 2 : Lecture 4 March 8, 2021 9

Developing the Binomial Distribution

• The number of sequences with x successes in n independent

where n! = n·(n – 1)·(n – 2)· . . . ·1 and 0! = 1

• These sequences are mutually exclusive, since no two can

Hengki Purwoto (Econ UGM) Statistics 2 : Lecture 4 March 8, 2021 10

Binomial probability distribution

Hengki Purwoto (Econ UGM) Statistics 2 : Lecture 4 March 8, 2021 11

Binomial probability distribution

Hengki Purwoto (Econ UGM) Statistics 2 : Lecture 4 March 8, 2021 12

Shape of Binomial Distribution

Mean and Variance of a Binomial Distribution

▪ Variance and Standard Deviation

Where n = sample size

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Binomial probability distribution

Hengki Purwoto (Econ UGM) Statistics 2 : Lecture 4 March 8, 2021 15

Mean P(x) n = 5 P = 0.1

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N x … p=.20 p=.25 p=.30 p=.35 p=.40 p=.45 p=.50

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Binomial probability distribution

What is the probability that at least two poor children experience

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Poisson probability distribution

Suppose that A is an event of interest

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Poisson probability distribution

The Poisson probability distribution is characterized by λ

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Poisson probability distribution

Poisson probability distribution

where  = expected number of successes per time or space unit

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X 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90

0 0.9048 0.8187 0.7408 0.6703 0.6065 0.5488 0.4966 0.4493 0.4066

Example: Find P(X = 2) if  = .50

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Hengki Purwoto (Econ UGM) Statistics 2 : Lecture 4 March 8, 2021 24

Poisson Distribution Shape