Discrete and Continuous

Probability Distributions
 Chapter Goals

After completing this chapter, you should be

able to:

Apply the binomial distribution to applied problems
 Compute probabilities for the Poisson and

hypergeometric distributions
 Find probabilities using a normal distribution table
and apply the normal distribution to business
problems
 Recognize when to apply the uniform and
exponential distributions
Chap 5-2
 Probability Distributions
Probability
Distributions

Discrete Continuous
Probability Probability
Distributions Distributions

Binomial Normal

Poisson Uniform

Hypergeometric Exponential
Chap 5-3
 Discrete Probability Distributions
 A discrete random variable is a variable that
can assume only a countable number of values
Many possible outcomes:
 number of complaints per day
 number of TV’s in a household
 number of rings before the phone is answered
Only two possible outcomes:
 gender: male or female
 defective: yes or no
 spreads peanut butter first vs. spreads jelly first

Chap 5-4
 Continuous Probability Distributions
 A continuous random variable is a variable that
can assume any value on a continuum (can
assume an uncountable number of values)
 thickness of an item
 time required to complete a task
 temperature of a solution
 height, in inches
 These can potentially take on any value,
depending only on the ability to measure
accurately.
Chap 5-5
 The Binomial Distribution
Probability
Distributions

Discrete
Probability
Distributions

Binomial

Poisson

Hypergeometric
Chap 5-6
 Binomial
 Bila tiap kartu dikembalikan lalu dikocok sebelum kartu
berikutnya ditarik, maka kedua percobaan tersebut
mempunyai sifat yang sama, yaitu bebas satu sama
lain dan peluang sukses tidak berubah dari percobaan
satu ke percobaan lain.
 Proses tersebut disebut proses Bernoulli
 Tiap usaha disebut usaha Bernoulli
 Bila setelah penarikan kartu tidak dilakukan
pengembalian, maka percobaan tersebut bukan lagi
sekelompok usaha Bernoulli.
 Jadi, percobaan binomial (binomial experiment)
merupakan sekelompok usaha Bernoulli.
 The Binomial Distribution
 Characteristics of the Binomial Distribution:

 A trial has only two possible outcomes – “success” or “failure”

 There is a fixed number, n, of identical trials
 The trials of the experiment are independent of each other
 The probability of a success, p, remains constant from trial to
trial
 If p represents the probability of a success, then
(1-p) = q is the probability of a failure

n  x n x
b x ; n , p     p q , x  0 ,1 , 2 ,..., n
x

Chap 5-8
 Binomial Distribution Settings

 A manufacturing plant labels items as

either defective or acceptable
 A firm bidding for a contract will either get
the contract or not
 A marketing research firm receives survey
responses of “yes I will buy” or “no I will
not”
 New job applicants either accept the offer
or reject it
Chap 5-9
 Counting Rule for Combinations
 A combination is an outcome of an experiment
where x objects are selected from a group of n
objects
n n!
C  x
x! (n  x )!
where:
n! =n(n - 1)(n - 2) . . . (2)(1)
x! = x(x - 1)(x - 2) . . . (2)(1)
0! = 1 (by definition)

Chap 5-10
 Binomial Distribution Formula
n  x n x
b x ; n , p     p q , x  0 ,1 , 2 ,..., n
x
n! x n-x
P(x) = p q
x ! (n - x )!
P(x) = probability of x successes in n trials,
with probability of success p on each trial
Example: Flip a coin four
times, let x = # heads:
x = number of ‘successes’ in sample,
n=4
(x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n)
p = probability of “success” per trial p = 0.5
q = probability of “failure” = (1 – p) q = (1 - .5) = .5
n = number of trials (sample size) x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
 Binomial Distribution
 The shape of the binomial distribution depends on the
values of p and n
Mean .6
P(X) n = 5 p = 0.1
.4
.2
 Here, n = 5 and p = .1
0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5

.6
P(X) n = 5 p = 0.5
.4
 Here, n = 5 and p = .5 .2
0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5
Chap 5-12
 Binomial Distribution
Characteristics
 Mean
μ  E(x)  np
 Variance and Standard Deviation
2
σ  npq
σ  npq
Where n = sample size
p = probability of success
q = (1 – p) = probability of failure

Chap 5-13
 Binomial Characteristics
Examples
μ  np  (5)(.1)  0.5
Mean P(X) n = 5 p = 0.1
.6
.4
σ  npq  (5)(.1)(1  .1) .2
 0.6708 0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5

μ  np  (5)(.5)  2.5 P(X) n = 5 p = 0.5

.6
.4
σ  npq  (5)(.5)(1  .5) .2
 1.118 0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5
Chap 5-14
 Using Binomial Tables
n = 10
x p=.15 p=.20 p=.25 p=.30 p=.35 p=.40 p=.45 p=.50
0 0.1969 0.1074 0.0563 0.0282 0.0135 0.0060 0.0025 0.0010 10
1 0.3474 0.2684 0.1877 0.1211 0.0725 0.0403 0.0207 0.0098 9
2 0.2759 0.3020 0.2816 0.2335 0.1757 0.1209 0.0763 0.0439 8
3 0.1298 0.2013 0.2503 0.2668 0.2522 0.2150 0.1665 0.1172 7
4 0.0401 0.0881 0.1460 0.2001 0.2377 0.2508 0.2384 0.2051 6
5 0.0085 0.0264 0.0584 0.1029 0.1536 0.2007 0.2340 0.2461 5
6 0.0012 0.0055 0.0162 0.0368 0.0689 0.1115 0.1596 0.2051 4
7 0.0001 0.0008 0.0031 0.0090 0.0212 0.0425 0.0746 0.1172 3
8 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004 0.0014 0.0043 0.0106 0.0229 0.0439 2
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0016 0.0042 0.0098 1
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0010 0
p=.85 p=.80 p=.75 p=.70 p=.65 p=.60 p=.55 p=.50 x

howe
Examples: ver,
we’ll
use
n = 10, p = .35, x = 3: P(x = 3|n =10, p = .35) = .2522 walp t able
ole a in
cons s ou
n = 10, p = .75, x = 2: P(x = 2|n =10, p = .75) = .0004 ensu r
s
 CONTOH 1
 Suatu suku cadang dapat menahan uji
goncangan tertentu dengan peluang ¾.
Peluang tepat 2 dari 4 suku cadang yang diuji
tidak akan rusak adalah:
n  x n x
b x ; n , p     p q , x  0 ,1 , 2 ,..., n
x
 CONTOH 1
 Suatu suku cadang dapat menahan uji
goncangan tertentu dengan peluang ¾.
Peluang tepat 2 dari 4 suku cadang yang diuji
tidak akan rusak adalah:

2 2
 3   4  4   1  4! 3 2 27
b 2;4,         x 4 
 4   2  4   4  2!2! 4 128
 CONTOH 2
 Peluang untuk sembuh seorang penderita
penyakit darah yang jarang adalah 0,4. Bila
diketahui ada 15 orang yang telah mengidap
penyakit tersebut, peluang paling sedikit 10
akan sembuh adalah:

9
P( X  10)  1  P( X 10)  1  b( x;15,0.4)  1  0,9662 0,0338
x0
 The Poisson Distribution
Probability
Distributions

Discrete
Probability
Distributions

Binomial

Poisson

Hypergeometric
Chap 5-19
 The Poisson Distribution
 Distribusi peluang peubah acak Poisson X, yang
menyatakan banyaknya sukses yang terjadi dalam
suatu selang waktu/ daerah tertentu (t)
 Banyak digunakan dalam pengendalian mutu.
 Beberapa distribusi yang penting yang digunakan dalam
teori keandalan (reliabilitas) dan teori antrian
bergantung pada proses Poisson

Chap 5-20
 The Poisson Distribution

 Characteristics of the Poisson Distribution:

 The average number of outcomes of interest per time
or space interval is 
 The number of outcomes of interest are random, and
the occurrence of one outcome does not influence the
chances of another outcome of interest
(independent).
 The probability of that an outcome of interest occurs
in a given segment is the same for all segments

Chap 5-21
 Poisson Distribution Formula

x  t
( t ) e
P( x ) 
x!
where:
t = size of the segment of interest
x = number of successes in segment of interest
 = expected number of successes in a segment of unit size
e = base of the natural logarithm system (2.71828...)

Note : P(x) = P(x ; λt)

Chap 5-22
 Poisson Distribution
Characteristics
 Mean
μ  λt
 Variance and Standard Deviation

σ 2  λt
σ  λt
where  = number of successes in a segment of unit size
t = the size of the segment of interest

Chap 5-23
 Using Poisson Tables
t

X 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90

0 0.9048 0.8187 0.7408 0.6703 0.6065 0.5488 0.4966 0.4493 0.4066

1 0.0905 0.1637 0.2222 0.2681 0.3033 0.3293 0.3476 0.3595 0.3659
2 0.0045 0.0164 0.0333 0.0536 0.0758 0.0988 0.1217 0.1438 0.1647
3 0.0002 0.0011 0.0033 0.0072 0.0126 0.0198 0.0284 0.0383 0.0494
4 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0007 0.0016 0.0030 0.0050 0.0077 0.0111
5 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0004 0.0007 0.0012 0.0020
6 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0003
7 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Example: Find P(x = 2) if  = .05 and t = 100 But,

we’ll here
walp use the
(t )x e  t (0.50)2 e 0.50 ole t
P( x  2)    .0758 for o able
x! 2! cons ur
ensu
s
 Graph of Poisson Probabilities
0.70

Graphically: 0.60

 = .05 and t = 100 0.50

t = P(x) 0.40
X 0.50
0.30
0 0.6065
1 0.3033 0.20

2 0.0758 0.10

3 0.0126
0.00
4 0.0016 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

5 0.0002 x
6 0.0000
7 0.0000 P(x = 2) = .0758

Chap 5-25
 Poisson Distribution Shape
 The shape of the Poisson Distribution
depends on the parameters  and t:

t = 0.50 t = 3.0
0.70 0.25

0.60
0.20
0.50

0.15
0.40

P(x)
P(x)

0.30 0.10

0.20
0.05
0.10

0.00 0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

x x

Chap 5-26
 Distribusi Poisson Peluang Binomial

 Bila n besar dan p dekat dengan nol, distribusi

Poisson dapat digunakan, dengan μ = np, untuk
menghampiri peluang Binomial

 Bila p dekat dengan 1, distribusi Poisson masih

dapat dipakai untuk menghampiri peluang
binomial dengan mempertukarkan sukses &
gagal (mengganti p dengan nilai yang dekat
dengan 0)
 Contoh Soal DISTRIB. POISSON

Suatu daerah di bagian timur Amerika Serikat, rata-

rata ditimpa 6 angin topan setahun. Carilah
peluang di suatu tahun tertentu :
a). Tidak sampai 4 angin topan yang akan menimpa
daerah tersebut
b). Antara 6 sampai 8 angin topan akan menimpa
daerah tersebut
Diketahui :
x = jumlah angin topan yang menimpa daerah
tertentu
=6
Jawab : …… X = ...
P(x ; λt) = eˉλt (λt)x
x!
a). X = 0, 1, 2, 3
(  t ) x e  t
P( x ) 
x!

2,71828 6 . 60 Atau dengan menggu-

P(0 ; 6)   0,00248 nakan Tabel Distribusi
0!
 6 . 61 Poisson, diperoleh :
P(1 ; 6)  2,71828  0,01487
1! X = 0, 1, 2, 3

2,71828  6 . 62 3
P(2 ; 6)   0,04462
2! P(x ; t) =X
=0
P(x ; 6)
2,71828  6 . 63
P(3 ; 6)   0,08924 = 0,1512
3!
0,1512
 b). X = 6, 7, 8
P(x ; λt) = eˉλt (λt)x
x!
6 6
P(6 ; 6)  2,71828 . 6  0,16062
6!
6 7
P(7 ; 6)  2,71828 . 6  0,13768
7!
6 6
P(8 ; 6)  2,71828 . 6  0,10326
8!
0,40156
Atau dengan menggunakan Tabel Distribusi Poisson, diperoleh :
8X = 6, 7, 8 5

P(x ; t) =

X=0

P(x ; 6) X = 0 P(x ; 6)
= 0,8472  0,4457 = 0,4015
The Hypergeometric Distribution
Probability
Distributions

Discrete
Probability
Distributions

Binomial

Poisson

Hypergeometric
Chap 5-31
 The Hypergeometric Distribution

 “n” trials in a sample taken from a finite

population of size N
 Sample taken without replacement
 Trials are dependent
 Concerned with finding the probability of “x”
successes in the sample where there are “X”
successes in the population

Chap 5-32
 Hypergeometric Distribution
Formula
(Two possible outcomes per trial)

N X . X
C C
P( x )  n x
N
x
C
n
P(x) = h(x,N,n,k)
Where
N = Population size
X = number of successes in the population
n = sample size
x = number of successes in the sample
n – x = number of failures in the sample
Chap 5-33
 Hypergeometric Distribution
Formula
■ Example: 3 Light bulbs were selected from 10. Of the
10 there were 4 defective. What is the probability that 2
of the 3 selected are defective?

N = 10 n=3
X=4 x=2

N X X 6 4
C C C C (6)(6)
P(x  2)  n x
N
x
 1
10

2
 0.3
C n C3 120

Chap 5-34
 Penerapan Distribusi
Hypergeometrik

Distribusi hypergeometrik dapat diaplikasikan

dalam :
 Acceptence sampling
 Pengujian elektronik
 Quality control
 Contoh Soal
 Suatu kotak berisi 40 suku cadang
dikatakan memenuhi syarat bila berisi
tidak lebih dari 3 yang cacat. Cara
sampling kotak ialah dengan memilih 5
suku cadang secara acak dari dalamnya
dan menolak kotak tersebut bila
diantaranya ada yang cacat. Berapa
peluang mendapatkan tepat satu yang
cacat dalam sampel berukuran 5 bila kotak
tersebut berisi 3 yang cacat.
 Penyelesaian :

 Diketahui n = 5, N = 40, 
k = 3 dan x= 1,
maka peluang mendapatkan 3 satu
 tepat yang
cacat adalah  
 3   37 
  
 1  4   03. 3011
 40
   37 
h(1,40,5,3) =   
   1   4   0.3011
5
 40 
 
5
h(x,N,n,k)
 The Normal Distribution
Probability
Distributions

Continuous
Probability
Distributions

Before we learn continuous probability distributions,

we need to review what continuous random variable is

Chap 5-38
 Continuous Random Variable
Examples

Experiment Random Possible

Variable Values
Weight 100 People Weight 45.1, 78, ...
Measure Part Life Hours 900, 875.9, ...
Ask Food Spending Spending 54.12, 42, ...
Measure Time Inter-Arrival 0, 1.3, 2.78, ...
Between Arrivals Time
 Continuous Probability Density
Function

1. Mathematical Formula
Frequency
2. Shows All Values, x, &
(Value, Frequency)
Frequencies, f(x)
 f(X) Is Not Probability f(x)

3. Properties

 f ( x )dx  1 x
All X (Area Under Curve) a b
Value
f ( x )  0, a  x  b
 Continuous Random Variable
Probability

d
Probability Is Area P (c  x  d)  c  f ( x ) dx
Under Curve!
f(x)

X
c d

© 1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

The Normal Distribution
Probability
Distributions

Continuous
Probability
Distributions

Normal

Uniform

Exponential
Chap 5-42
 The Normal Distribution
 ‘Bell Shaped’
 Symmetrical
f(x)
 Mean, Median and Mode
are Equal
Location is determined by the
mean, μ σ
x
Spread is determined by the μ
standard deviation, σ
Mean
The random variable has an = Median
infinite theoretical range: = Mode
+  to  

Chap 5-43
 Many Normal Distributions
Normal distributions differ by mean &
standard deviation.

By varying the parameters μ and σ, we obtain

different normal distributions
Chap 5-44
 The Normal Distribution Shape

f(x) Changing μ shifts the

distribution left or right.

Changing σ increases
or decreases the
σ spread.

μ x

Chap 5-45
 Finding Normal Probabilities
Probability is the
Probability is measured by the area
area under the
curve! under the curve
f(x)
P (c  x  d)

c d x
d
P(c  x  d)   f (x) dx where
c Chap 5-46
 Probability as
Area Under the Curve
The total area under the curve is 1.0, and the curve is
symmetric, so half is above the mean, half is below

f(x) P(   x  μ)  0.5
P(μ  x   )  0.5

0.5 0.5

μ x
P(  x  )  1.0
Chap 5-47
 Empirical Rules

What can we say about the distribution of values

around the mean? There are some general rules:
f(x)
μ ± 1σ encloses about
68% of x’s
σ σ

μ-1σ μ μ+1σ x
68.26%
Chap 5-48
 The Empirical Rule
(continued)
 μ ± 2σ covers about 95% of x’s
 μ ± 3σ covers about 99.7% of x’s

2σ 2σ 3σ 3σ
μ x μ x
95.44% 99.72%

Chap 5-49
 Importance of the Rule

 If a value is about 2 or more standard

deviations away from the mean in a normal
distribution, then it is far from the mean

 The chance that a value that far or farther

away from the mean is highly unlikely, given
that particular mean and standard deviation

Chap 5-50
The Standard Normal Distribution
 Also known as the “z” distribution
 Mean is defined to be 0
 Standard Deviation is 1

f(z)

0 z

Values above the mean have positive z-values,

values below the mean have negative z-values
Chap 5-51
 The Standard Normal

 Any normal distribution (with any mean and

standard deviation combination) can be
transformed into the standard normal
distribution (z)

 Need to transform x units into z units

Z distribution is
Standardized Normal One table!
Distribution
Chap 5-52
 Translation to the Standard
Normal Distribution

 Translate from x to the standard normal (the

“z” distribution) by subtracting the mean of x
and dividing by its standard deviation:

x μ
z
σ

Chap 5-53
 Example

 If x is distributed normally with mean of 100

and standard deviation of 50, the z value for
x = 250 is
x  μ 250  100
z   3.0
σ 50
 This says that x = 250 is three standard
deviations (3 increments of 50 units) above
the mean of 100.

Chap 5-54
 Comparing x and z units

μ = 100
σ = 50

100 250 x
0 3.0 z
Note that the distribution is the same, only the
scale has changed. We can express the problem in
original units (x) or in standardized units (z)
Chap 5-55
 The Standard Normal Table

 The Standard Normal table in the textbook

gives the probability from the mean (zero)
up to a desired value for z

.4772
Example:
P(0 < z < 2.00) = 0.4772

0 2.00 z
Version 1 table
Chap 5-56
 The Standard Normal Table
(continued)

Version 1 table The column gives the value of

z to the second decimal point
z 0.00 0.01 0.02 …

0.1
The row shows
the value of z 0.2
. The value within the
to the first .
decimal point . table gives the
2.0 .4772
probability from z = 0
up to the desired z
P(0 < z < 2.00)2.0
= .4772 value

Chap 5-57
 The Standard Normal Table –
Walpole’s
 But, the another table (such as in
Walpole’s book), The Standard Normal
table gives the probability from negative
value of z up to a desired value for z  lihat
keterangan pada tabel
0.9772
Example:
P(z < 2.00) = 0.9772

0 2.00 z
Version 2 table
Chap 5-58
 General Procedure for
Finding Probabilities

To find P(a < x < b) when x is distributed

normally:
 Draw the normal curve for the problem in
terms of x

 Translate x-values to z-values

 Use the Standard Normal Table

Chap 5-59
 Z Table example
 Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0 and
standard deviation 5.0. Find P(8 < x < 8.6)

Calculate z-values:

x μ 88
z  0
σ 5
8 8.6 x
x  μ 8.6  8 0 0.12 Z
z   0.12
σ 5 P(8 < x < 8.6)
= P(0 < z < 0.12)
Chap 5-60
 Z Table example
(continued)
 Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0 and
standard deviation 5.0. Find P(8 < x < 8.6)

m =8 m =0
=5 =1

8 8.6 x 0 0.12 z

P(8 < x < 8.6) P(0 < z < 0.12)

Chap 5-61
 Solution: Finding P(0 < z < 0.12)

Standard Normal Probability P(8 < x < 8.6)

Table (Portion) = P(0 < z < 0.12)
z .00 .01 .02 .0478
0.0 .0000 .0040 .0080

0.1 .0398 .0438 .0478

0.2 .0793 .0832 .0871
Z
0.00
0.3 .1179 .1217 .1255
0.12
Version 1 table Chap 5-62
 Finding Normal Probabilities
 Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0
and standard deviation 5.0.
 Now Find P(x < 8.6)

Z
8.0
8.6
Chap 5-63
 Finding Normal Probabilities
(continued)

 Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0

and standard deviation 5.0.
 Now Find P(x < 8.6)

.5000 .0478
P(x < 8.6)
= P(z < 0.12)
= P(z < 0) + P(0 < z < 0.12)
= .5 + .0478 = .5478
Z
0.00
Version 1 table 0.12 Chap 5-64
 Upper Tail Probabilities
 Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0
and standard deviation 5.0.
 Now Find P(x > 8.6)

Z
8.0
8.6
Chap 5-65
 Upper Tail Probabilities
(continued)
 Now Find P(x > 8.6)…
P(x > 8.6) = P(z > 0.12) = P(z > 0) - P(0 < z < 0.12)
= .5 - .0478 = .4522

.0478
.5000 .50 - .0478
= .4522

Z Z
0 0
0.12 0.12
Version 1 table Chap 5-66
 Lower Tail Probabilities
 Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0
and standard deviation 5.0.
 Now Find P(7.4 < x < 8)

Z
8.0
7.4
Chap 5-67
 Lower Tail Probabilities
(continued)

Now Find P(7.4 < x < 8)…

The Normal distribution is

symmetric, so we use the .0478
same table even if z-values
are negative:
P(7.4 < x < 8)
= P(-0.12 < z < 0)
= .0478 Z
8.0
7.4

Chap 5-68
 Normal Distribution Thinking
Challenge

You work in Quality Control

for GE. Light bulb life has a
normal distribution with
= 2000 hours & = 200
hours. What’s the probability
that a bulb will last
A. between 2000 & 2400
hours?
B. less than 1470 hours?
 Solution*
© 2001 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
P(2000  X  2400)
X   2400  2000
Z   2.0
 200
Normal Standardized
Distribution Normal Distribution
 = 200 =1

.4772

 = 2000 2400 X =0 2.0 Z

5 - 70
 Solution*
© 2001 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
P(X  1470)
X   1470  2000
Z    2.65
 200
Normal Standardized
Distribution Normal Distribution
 = 200 =1

.5000

.0040 .4960

1470  = 2000 X -2.65 =0 Z

5 - 71
 Finding X Values
for Known Probabilities

Normal distribution
 = 10

.1217

= 5 ? X

SHADED AREAS EXAGGERATED

 Finding X Values
for Known Probabilities

Normal distribution Standardized Normal Distribution

 = 10 =1

.1217 .1217

= 5 ? X  = 0 .31 Z

SHADED AREAS EXAGGERATED

 Finding X Values
for Known Probabilities

Normal distribution Standardized Normal Distribution

 = 10 =1

.1217 .1217

= 5 ? X  = 0 .31 Z

X    Z    5  . 31 10   8 . 1
Normal Approximation of
Binomial Distribution
 Normal Approximation of Binomial
Distribution

1. Not All Binomial

n = 10 p = 0.50
Tables Exist
P(X)
2. Requires Large .3
Sample Size .2
.1
3. Gives Approximate .0 X
Probability Only 0 2 4 6 8 10
4. Need Correction for
Continuity
 Why Probability
Is Approximate

P(x)
.3
.2
.1
.0 x
0 2 4 6 8 10
Binomial Probability: Normal Probability: Area
Bar Height Under Curve from 3.5 to 4.5
 Why Probability
Is Approximate
Probability Added
P(x) by Normal Curve
.3
.2 Probability Lost
by Normal Curve
.1
.0 x
0 2 4 6 8 10
Binomial Probability: Normal Probability: Area
Bar Height Under Curve from 3.5 to 4.5
 Correction for Continuity

1. A 1/2 unit Adjustment

to Discrete Variable
2. Used When
Approximating a Discrete
Distribution With a
Continuous Distribution
3. Improves Accuracy
3.5 4 4.5
(4 - .5) (4 + .5)
 Normal Approximation Procedure
1.Calculate the Interval:
  3  np  3 np 1  p 
 If Interval Lies in Range 0 to n, Normal
Approximation Can Be Used

2.Express Binomial Probability in Form:

P x  a  or P x  b   P x  a 
3.For Each Value of Interest, a, Use:

z  a  0 . 5   np  np 1  p 
 Normal Approximation Example
What Is the Normal Approximation of P(x = 4) given n = 10,
and p = 0.5?

P(x)
.3
.2
.1
.0 x
0 2 4 6 8 10
3.5 4.5
 Normal Approximation Solution

1.Calculate the Interval:

np  3 np1 p  100.5  3 100.51 0.5
 5  3.35  1.64, 8.35
 Interval Lies in Range 0 to 10, so Normal
Approximation Can Be Used
 Normal Approximation Solution
 1. Calculate the Interval:
np  3 np1 p  100.5  3 100.51 0.5
 5  3.35  1.64, 8.35
 Interval Lies in Range 0 to 10, so Normal
Approximation Can Be Used
 2. Express Binomial Probability in Form:

P x  4   P x  4   P x  3 
 Normal Approximation Solution

3. Compute Standard Normal z Values:

(a + .5)  n  p 3.5 - 10(.5)

Z   .95
n  p (1  p ) 10(.5)(1 - .5)

(b + .5)  n  p 4.5 - 10(.5)

Z   .32
n  p (1  p ) 10(.5)(1 - .5)
 Normal Approximation Solution

4. Sketch the Approximate Normal Distribution:

.3289  =1
- .1255
.2034
.1255 =0

.3289

-.95 -.32 Z
 Normal Approximation Solution

5. The Exact Probability From the Binomial

Equation Is 0.2000 (vs. 0.2034)
P(x)
.3
.2
.1
.0 x
0 2 4 6 8 10
The Uniform Distribution
Probability
Distributions

Continuous
Probability
Distributions

Normal

Uniform

Exponential
Chap 5-87
 The Uniform Distribution

 The uniform distribution is a

probability distribution that has
equal probabilities for all possible
outcomes of the random variable

Chap 5-88
 The Uniform Distribution
(continued)

The Continuous Uniform Distribution:

1
if a  x  b
ba
f(x) =
0 otherwise
where
f(x) = value of the density function at any x value
a = lower limit of the interval
b = upper limit of the interval

Chap 5-89
 Uniform Distribution
Example: Uniform Probability Distribution
Over the range 2 ≤ x ≤ 6:

1
f(x) = 6 - 2 = .25 for 2 ≤ x ≤ 6

f(x)
.25

2 6 x

Chap 5-90
The Exponential Distribution
Probability
Distributions

Continuous
Probability
Distributions

Normal

Uniform

Exponential
Chap 5-91
 The Exponential Distribution

 Used to measure the time that elapses

between two occurrences of an event (the
time between arrivals)

 Examples:
 Time between trucks arriving at an unloading

dock
 Time between transactions at an ATM Machine

 Time between phone calls to the main operator

Chap 5-92
 The Exponential Distribution

 The probability that an arrival time is equal to or

less than some specified time a is

 λa
P(0  x  a)  1  e
where 1/ is the mean time between events

Note that if the number of occurrences per time period is Poisson

with mean , then the time between occurrences is exponential
with mean time 1/ 

Chap 5-93
 Exponential Distribution
(continued)
 Shape of the exponential distribution

f(x)
 = 3.0
(mean = .333)

 = 1.0
(mean = 1.0)

l = 0.5
(mean = 2.0)

x
Characteristics :
1. Describes Time or Distance Between
Events
 Used for Queues

2. Density Function
x
f (x)  e
3. Parameters

  1 ,   1
Chap 5-95
 Example

Example: Customers arrive at the claims counter at

the rate of 15 per hour (Poisson distributed). What
is the probability that the arrival time between
consecutive customers is less than five minutes?

 Time between arrivals is exponentially distributed

with mean time between arrivals of 4 minutes (15
per 60 minutes, on average)
 1/ = 4.0, so  = .25
 P(x < 5) = 1 - e-a = 1 – e-(.25)(5) = .7135

Chap 5-96
 Chapter Summary

 Reviewed key discrete distributions

 binomial, poisson, hypergeometric
 Reviewed key continuous distributions
 normal, uniform, exponential
 Found probabilities using formulas and tables
 Recognized when to apply different distributions
 Applied distributions to decision problems

Chap 5-97
 Other Continuous Probability
Distribution
 Gamma  bisa dikatakan sebagai induk dari distribusi kontinyu,
memiliki parameter α dan β yang mempengaruhi form dan shape
dari kurva distribusi kontinyu.
If beta = 1 standard gamma distribution

KONDISI KHUSUS DISTRIBUSI GAMMA

 Normal  α=0 dan β=0

 Eksponensial  α=1 dan β=1

 Chi-Square  For a positive integer n, when alpha = n/2, beta = 2

 Erlang  if α is a positive integer

 Weibull  Use this distribution in reliability analysis, such as

calculating a device's mean time to failure

Chap 5-98
 Exercise..!
1. A college has a single counter at the Registrar’s Office. A student
arrives on average every 10 minutes following an exponential
distribution. What is the probability that more than 30 minutes
pass without a student’s arriving?
2. Suatu mesin pengisi botol soft drink diatur untuk dapat mengisi
rata-rata 10 ons per botolnya. Jika jumlah cairan soft drink yang
diisikan ke botol diasumsikan berdistribusi normal dengan standar
deviasi 0,5 ons. Jawablah pertanyaan dibawah ini:
 Berapa prosentase botol yang berisi cairan soft drink lebih dari

10,2 ons?
 Jika botol dapat menampung tepat 10,5 ons cairan soft drink,

berapa probabilitas pengisian botol menyebabkan cairan

tersebut tumpah karena kelebihan ?

Chap 5-99
 Exponential Distribution
Solution

P( x  a)  e  a
.1( 30 )
P( x  30)  e
 0.049787
 5%
© 1995 Corel Corp.
Take Home Assignment: individual

 Buatlah resume tentang contoh-contoh aplikasi

distribusi diskrit dan kontinyu dalam dunia
engineering.
 Kerjakan minimum 8 soal dari buku walpole
yang berkaitan dengan distribusi kontinyu.

Chap 5-101