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Week 5
Topic Probability Distributions

Date

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
Observed probabilities such as this allows us to describe
data, but not to make inferences

To make inferences, we need theoretical probability

distributions → a priori distributions that assume that the
phenomenon of interest is characterised by particular
parameters

Parameters → those characteristics of the population from

which we’re sampling that define the shape of the theoretical
distribution

Theoretical distributions allow us to estimate the likelihood

of an observed event or set of events

Inferring from theoretical distributions

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 Many kinds of probability distribution

The level of measurement, whether the variable is discrete or

continuous, the nature of the scale (e.g., bounded/
unbounded), and other factors, determine the appropriate
theoretical probability distribution to use:

Binomial distribution

Normal distribution

T-distribution

F-distribution

Chi-squared distribution

Poisson distribution

Negative binomial distribution

Beta distribution

Probability distributions

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 In general terms, a probability distribution describes the a
priori likelihood of an outcome, assuming particular
characteristics (parameters) of the population from which the
sample is being drawn

In a probability distribution figure, the X axis describes

the outcome space and the Y axis describes the probability
mass function (for discrete variables) or the probability
density function (for continuous variables)

The Binomial Distribution

The binomial distribution is a probability distribution that
describes the number of successes in a fixed number of
independent trials, where each trial can only have two possible
outcomes (success or failure) and the probability of success is
constant across trials. The probability of getting exactly k
successes in n trials is given by the binomial distribution
formula:
P(k) = (n choose k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k)

where:

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 (n choose k) is the binomial coefficient, which represents
the number of ways to choose k successes from n trials and is
calculated as n! / (k! * (n-k)!)

p is the probability of success in each trial

(1-p) is the probability of failure in each trial

k is the number of successes in n trials

P(k) is the probability of getting exactly k successes in n

trials

Note that the sum of probabilities for all possible values of k

from 0 to n is always equal to 1, since there must be either a
success or a failure in each trial.

The Binomial distribution is a discrete probability

distribution

The binomial distribution describes the number of successes

in a sequence of independent events/trials, each with a
possible yes/no outcome

Success (Yes) is defined by P; e.g. P(H)

Failure (No) is defined by q = 1 - P; e.g., P(T) = 1 - P(H) =

q

The Binomial distribution is defined by the parameters P and

n → P is the underlying a priori probability of the event,
and n is the number of trials

Logic of it

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 Using the BD to make inferences

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 Normal Distribution

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 Standard ND

Using the Standard ND

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 The T Distribution

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Week 5 9
 Using the T Distribution

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 The F distribution

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 SUMMARY

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