Basic

Probability
Concepts
 Introduction

People use the term probability many times

each day. For example, physician says that a
patient has a 50-50 chance of surviving a
certain operation. Another physician may
say that she is 95% certain that a patient
has a particular disease
Definition

If an event can occur in N mutually exclusive and equally

likely ways, and if m of these possess a trait, E, the
probability of the occurrence of E is read as
P(E) = m/N
 Definition

Experiment ==> any planned process

of data collection. It consists of a
number of trials (replications) under
the same condition.
Definition
Sample space: collection of unique, non-
overlapping possible outcomes of a random
circumstance.

Simple event: one outcome in the sample space; a

possible outcome of a random circumstance.
Event: a collection of one or more simple events in
the sample space; often written as
A, B, C, and so on

Male, Female
Definition
Complement ==> sometimes, we want to know
the probability that an event will not happen; an
event opposite to the event of interest is called
a complementary event.
If A is an event, its complement is The
probability of the complement is AC or A
Example: The complement of male
event is the female

P(A) + P(AC) = 1
Views of Probability:

1-Subjective:

It is an estimate that reflects a person’s opinion,

or best guess about whether an outcome will
occur.

Important in medicine  form the basis of a

physician’s opinion (based on information gained
in the history and physical examination) about
whether a patient has a specific disease. Such
estimate can be changed with the results of
diagnostic procedures.
2- Objective
Classical
• It is well known that the probability of flipping a
fair coin and getting a “tail” is 0.50.
• If a coin is flipped 10 times, is there a
guarantee, that exactly 5 tails will be
observed
• If the coin is flipped 100 times? With 1000
flips?
• As the number of flips becomes larger, the
proportion of coin flips that result in tails
approaches 0.50
 Example: Probability of Male versus
Female Births
Long-run relative frequency of males born in KSA is
about 0.512 (512 boys born per 1000 births)

Table provides results of simulation: the proportion

is far from .512 over the first few weeks but in the
long run settles down around .512.
2- Objective
Relative frequency

Assuming that an experiment can be repeated

many times and assuming that there are one or
more outcomes that can result from each
repetition. Then, the probability of a given
outcome is the number of times that outcome
occurs divided by the total number of
repetitions.
Problem 1.

Blood Males Females Total

Group
O 20 20 40
A 17 18 35
B 8 7 15
AB 5 5 10
Total 50 50 100
 Marginal probabilities
Named so because they appear on the “margins” of a
probability table. It is probability of single outcome

Example: In problem 1, P(Male), P(Blood group A)

P(Male) = number of males/total
number of subjects
= 50/100
= 0.5
 Conditional probabilities
It is the probability of an event on condition that certain
criteria is satisfied

Example: If a subject was selected randomly and found to be female

what is the probability that she has a blood group O
Here the total possible outcomes constitute a subset (females) of
the total number of subjects.
This probability is termed probability of O given F
P(O\F) = 20/50
= 0.40
 Conditional Probability
example:
• Toss a balanced die once and record the number on
the top face.
• Let E be the event that a 1 shows on the top face.
• Let F be the event that the number on the top face is
odd.
– What is P(E)?
– What is the Probability of the event E if we are told that
the number on the top face is odd, that is, we know that
the event F has occurred?
 Conditional Probability

• Key idea: The original sample space no

longer applies.
• The new or reduced sample space is
S={1, 3, 5}
• Notice that the new sample space consists
only of the outcomes in F.
• P(E occurs given that F occurs) = 1/3
• Notation: P(E|F) = 1/3
 Conditional Probability
• Def. The conditional probability of E given F is
the probability that an event, E, will occur
given that another event, F, has occurred

P( E  F ) if
P( F )  0
P( E | F ) 
P( F )
Conditional Probability
P( A  B)
P( A B) 
P( B)
A B

S
 Joint probability
It is the probability of occurrence of two or more events
together

Example: Probability of being male &

belong to blood group AB
P(M and AB) = P(M∩AB)
= 5/100
= 0.05
∩ = intersection
 Properties

The probability ranges between 0 and 1

If an outcome cannot occur, its probability is 0
If an outcome is sure, it has a probability of 1
The sum of probabilities of mutually exclusive
outcomes is equal to 1
P(M) + P(F) = 1
Independence and Conditional
Probability
Multiplication Rule – Independent
Events……
• When 2 events are independent, the
probability of both occurring is

P( A and B)  P( A)  P( B)
P(A) P(B\A)

P(B)

A and B are independent

P(B\A) = P(B)
When events are independent:

P(A and B)
P(B|A) 
P(A)
P(A)  P(B)
P(B|A) 
P(A)
P(B|A)=P(B)
 General Rule……
• “or” means to add

• “and” means to multiply (unless it is in a

contingency table and you can actually see the
intersection)
 Example……
• If a coin is tossed twice, • Answer:
find the probability of
getting 2 heads. P( H and H )  P( H )  P( H )

1 1 1
P( H and H )   
2 2 4
 Example……
• A coin is flipped and a • Answer:
die is rolled. Find the
probability of getting a P( H and 4)  P( H )  P(4)
head on the coin and a
4 on the die.
1 1 1
P( H and 4)   
2 6 12
 Example……
• A card is drawn from a deck • Answer:
and replaced; then a 2nd
card is drawn. Find the
probability of getting a P(Q and A)  P(Q)  P( A)
queen and then an ace.
4 4 1
P(Q and A)   
52 52 169
 Dependent Events……
• When the outcome or occurrence of the first
event affects the outcome or occurrence of
the second event in such a way that the
probability is changed.
Examples of Dependent Events……
1. Draw a card from a deck. Do not replace it
and draw another card.
2. Having high grades and getting a scholarship
3. Parking in a no parking zone and getting a
ticket
 P(B\A)
P(A)

P(B) P(B\A)

A and B are not independent

P(B\A) ≠ P(B)
 Multiplication Rule – Dependent
Events……
• When 2 events are dependent, the probability
of both occurring is

P( A and B)  P( A)  P( BlA)
• The slash reads:
“The probability that B occurs given that A has
already occurred.”
 Example……
• 53% of residents had • Answer:
homeowner’s insurance. Of
these, 27% also had car P( H and C)  P( H )  P(ClH )
insurance. If a resident is
selected at random, find the
prob. That the resident has P( H and C)  (.53)(.27)  .1431
both homeowner’s and car
insurance.
 Example……
• 3 cards are drawn from a deck and NOT
replaced. Find the following probabilities.
a. Getting 3 jacks
b. Getting an ace, king, and queen
c. Getting a club, spade, and heart
d. Getting 3 clubs.
 a. Getting 3 jacks……

4 3 2 1
P( J and J and J )      .000181
52 51 50 5525
b. Getting an ace, king, queen……

4 4 4 8
P( A and K and Q)      .000483
52 51 50 16575
 c. Getting a club, spade, and
heart……

13 13 13 169
P(C and S and H )      .017
52 51 50 10200
 d. Getting 3 clubs……

13 12 11 11
P(C and C and C )     or .013
52 51 50 850
 Warm Up……How Likely Are You to
Win the Lotto?
• Many states have lotteries. The biggest jackpot, typically
millions of dollars, usually comes from the Lotto game. In
Lotto South, available in Georgia, Kentucky, and Virginia,
six numbers are randomly sampled without replacement
from the integers 1 to 49. The order of selection is not
important.

• Question: You buy a lottery ticket. What is the

probability that it is a winning ticket, having the six
numbers chosen?
• The probability of • Keep in mind that the
winning is the order does not matter
probability that the 6 and that a number
numbers chosen are cannot be repeated
the six that you have after it has been
on your ticket. chosen.

• Find the probability of

winning.
 Answer……

6 5 4 3 2 1
P( All 6)      
49 48 47 46 45 44

720
P( All 6)   0.00000007
10,068,347,520
• This is about 1 chance in 14 million!
• Let’s give this small number some perspective.
The chance of winning the jackpot in Lotto South
(0.00000007) is……
• less than your chance of being hit by a meteorite
in the next year (0.0000004).
• less than your chance of dying in a tornado
(0.0000002).
• less than your chance of dying by a lightning
strike (0.00000016).
 In other words……
• If you have money to spare, go ahead and play the
lottery, but understand why many call it “sport for
the mathematically challenged.”

• By the way, the probability of winning the Lotto

South is also roughly the probability that a person of
average mortality will die in the next 3 minutes!

• Do you still want to play?

 Back to Conditional Probability -
Remember……

P( A and B)  P( A)  PB A

• Algebraically change this so that it is now in

the form……
 “Given”

P  B A 
P( A and B)
P( A)

P A B  
P( A and B)
P( B)
 Example……
• In Rolling Acres Housing Plan, 42% of the
houses have a deck and a garage; 60% have a
deck. Find the probability that a home has a
garage, given that it has a deck.
 Answer……

• Answer:
P( Deck and Garage)  .42
PG D  
P(G and D)
P ( D)
P( Deck )  .60

Find PG D  PG D  

.42
 .70
.6
 Example……
• At an exclusive country club, 83% of the
members play cards; 75% of the members
drink alcohol given that he or she plays
alcohol. Find the probability that members
drink alcohol and play cards.
 Answer……

• Answer:

P(cards)  .83 P A C  
P( A and C )
P(C )
Palcohol cards  .75 .75 
P( A and C )
.83

Find P(alcohol and cards)

P( A and C)  (.75)(.83)  .62

 Example……
• A recent survey asked
100 people if they
thought women in the
armed forces should be Yes No Total
permitted to participate
in combat. The results Male 32 18 50
are shown in the table.
Female 8 42 50

Total 40 60 100
 a. Find the probability that they
answered yes, given that they were
female.
Answer:
PY F  
P(Y and F )
P( F )
Yes No Total

Male 32 18 50 8
P Y F   100 8 4
  or.16
50 50 25
100
Female 8 42 50

Total 40 60 100
 b. Find the probability that they were
male, given that they answered no.
• Answer:

PM No  
P( M and No )
Yes No Total P( No )
Male 32 18 50

Female 8 42 50

Total 40 60 100

18
PM No   100 18 3
  or.3
60 60 10
100
 Example:
The joint probability of being male and having blood
type O
To know that two events are independent compute
the marginal and conditional probabilities of one of
them if they are equal the two events are
independent. If not equal the two events are
dependent
P(O) = 40/100 = 0.40
P(O\M) = 20/50 = 0.40
Then the two events are independent
P(O∩M) = P(O)P(M) = (40/100)(50/100)
= 0.20