Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Cash Flow Summary For Proposed Hotel at Lekki Scheme 1 Central Business District, Lagos, Nigeria
Cash Flow Summary For Proposed Hotel at Lekki Scheme 1 Central Business District, Lagos, Nigeria
Financed By
Total Development LTV Ratio - LTV Ratio - Developer's Cash
Months Dates Costs (Draws) Developer Bank Operational Income Payments Loan Balance LTV Ratio - Base Current 1 Current 2 Flow
0 1-Jun-09 4,000,000.00 1,200,000.00 2,800,000.00 - - 2,800,000.00 1.40% 1.37% 1.37% (201,200,000.00)
1 1-Jul-09 18,592,350.00 5,577,705.00 13,014,645.00 - - 15,859,478.23 7.93% 7.12% 7.00% (5,577,705.00)
2 31-Jul-09 14,000,000.00 4,200,000.00 9,800,000.00 - - 25,913,418.10 12.96% 10.95% 10.59% (4,200,000.00)
3 31-Aug-09 14,311,172.84 4,293,351.85 10,017,820.99 - - 36,346,161.31 18.17% 14.49% 13.79% (4,293,351.85)
4 30-Sep-09 4,217,773.65 1,265,332.09 2,952,441.55 - - 39,880,572.79 19.94% 15.63% 14.62% (1,265,332.09)
5 31-Oct-09 55,893,854.54 16,768,156.36 39,125,698.18 - - 79,644,833.43 39.82% 25.61% 23.86% (16,768,156.36)
6 30-Nov-09 3,234,876.56 970,462.97 2,264,413.59 - - 83,184,509.56 41.59% 26.47% 24.23% (970,462.97)
7 31-Dec-09 42,548,548.25 12,764,564.48 29,783,983.78 - - 114,300,432.71 57.15% 32.04% 29.14% (12,764,564.48)
8 30-Jan-10 141,164,217.03 42,349,265.11 98,814,951.92 - - 214,945,548.05 107.47% 43.16% 39.75% (42,349,265.11)
9 1-Mar-10 93,691,899.77 28,107,569.93 65,584,329.84 - - 283,971,557.58 141.99% 48.00% 44.05% (28,107,569.93)
10 1-Apr-10 38,978,218.16 11,693,465.45 27,284,752.71 - - 315,803,225.32 157.90% 50.08% 45.39% (11,693,465.45)
11 1-May-10 111,881,897.78 33,564,569.33 78,317,328.45 - - 399,177,153.25 199.59% 53.76% 48.64% (33,564,569.33)
12 1-Jun-10 13,034,513.54 3,910,354.06 9,124,159.48 - - 414,692,884.53 207.35% 54.89% 48.84% (3,910,354.06)
13 1-Jul-10 33,243,509.69 9,973,052.91 23,270,456.78 - - 444,603,348.94 222.30% 56.37% 49.50% (9,973,052.91)
14 1-Aug-10 58,430,924.78 17,529,277.43 40,901,647.35 - - 492,623,926.32 246.31% 58.15% 50.60% (17,529,277.43)
15 31-Aug-10 28,748,127.16 8,624,438.15 20,123,689.01 - - 520,635,444.51 260.32% 59.44% 51.01% (8,624,438.15)
16 1-Oct-10 80,627,428.98 24,188,228.70 56,439,200.29 - - 585,410,990.69 292.71% 61.20% 52.25% (24,188,228.70)
17 31-Oct-10 79,816,534.55 23,944,960.36 55,871,574.18 - - 650,656,088.25 325.33% 62.78% 53.28% (23,944,960.36)
18 30-Nov-10 28,914,260.81 8,674,278.24 20,239,982.57 - - 681,314,290.07 340.66% 63.95% 53.52% (8,674,278.24)
19 31-Dec-10 3,234,876.56 970,462.97 2,264,413.59 - - 694,487,817.98 347.24% 64.99% 53.42% (970,462.97)
20 30-Jan-11 3,234,876.56 970,462.97 2,264,413.59 (6,151,620.00) (6,151,620.00) 714,023,898.69 357.01% 66.62% 53.78% (970,462.97)
21 2-Mar-11 - - - 10,125,685.00 10,125,685.00 715,331,069.94 357.67% 66.74% 52.88% -
22 1-Apr-11 4,594,746.88 1,378,424.06 3,216,322.82 20,251,370.00 20,251,370.00 709,749,809.26 354.87% 65.94% 51.33% (1,378,424.06)
23 2-May-11 12,549,506.68 3,764,852.00 8,784,654.67 30,377,055.00 30,377,055.00 699,521,829.03 349.76% 64.24% 49.22% (3,764,852.00)
24 1-Jun-11 - - - 50,628,425.00 50,628,425.00 660,094,055.07 330.05% 60.62% 45.59% -
25 1-Jul-11 5,798,921.55 1,739,676.46 4,059,245.08 50,628,425.00 50,628,425.00 624,094,213.88 312.05% 57.01% 42.14% (1,739,676.46)
26 1-Aug-11 - - - 50,628,425.00 50,628,425.00 583,458,702.91 291.73% 53.30% 38.67% -
27 31-Aug-11 - - - 60,754,110.00 60,754,110.00 532,046,856.51 266.02% 48.60% 34.62% -
28 1-Oct-11 - - - 60,754,110.00 60,754,110.00 479,811,810.42 239.91% 43.83% 30.64% -
29 31-Oct-11 - - - 60,754,110.00 60,754,110.00 426,740,383.69 213.37% 38.98% 26.75% -
30 1-Dec-11 - - - 70,879,795.00 70,879,795.00 362,693,499.29 181.35% 33.13% 22.32% -
31 31-Dec-11 - - - 70,879,795.00 70,879,795.00 297,621,104.64 148.81% 27.19% 17.98% -
32 31-Jan-12 - - - 93,156,302.00 93,156,302.00 209,230,272.41 104.62% 19.11% 12.40% -
33 1-Mar-12 - - - 93,156,302.00 93,156,302.00 119,424,137.87 59.71% 10.91% 6.95% -
34 31-Mar-12 - - - 104,800,839.75 104,800,839.75 16,535,501.62 8.27% 1.51% 0.94% -
35 1-May-12 - - - 104,800,839.75 16,800,265.89 - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 88,000,573.86
36 31-May-12 - - - 104,800,839.75 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 104,800,839.75
37 1-Jul-12 - - - 104,800,839.75 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 104,800,839.75
38 31-Jul-12 - - - 109,226,476.75 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 109,226,476.75
39 31-Aug-12 - - - 109,226,476.75 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 109,226,476.75
40 30-Sep-12 - - - 109,226,476.75 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 109,226,476.75
41 30-Oct-12 - - - 109,226,476.75 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 109,226,476.75
42 30-Nov-12 - - - 109,226,476.75 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 109,226,476.75
43 30-Dec-12 - - - 109,226,476.75 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 109,226,476.75
44 30-Jan-13 - - - 116,349,942.63 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 116,349,942.63
45 1-Mar-13 - - - 116,349,942.63 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 116,349,942.63
46 1-Apr-13 - - - 116,349,942.63 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 116,349,942.63
47 1-May-13 - - - 116,349,942.63 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 116,349,942.63
48 1-Jun-13 - - - 116,349,942.63 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 116,349,942.63
49 1-Jul-13 - - - 116,349,942.63 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 116,349,942.63
50 31-Jul-13 - - - 116,349,942.63 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 116,349,942.63
51 31-Aug-13 - - - 116,349,942.63 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 116,349,942.63
52 30-Sep-13 - - - 116,349,942.63 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 116,349,942.63
53 31-Oct-13 - - - 116,349,942.63 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 116,349,942.63
54 30-Nov-13 - - - 116,349,942.63 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 116,349,942.63
55 31-Dec-13 - - - 116,349,942.63 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 116,349,942.63
56 30-Jan-14 - - - 127,035,141.44 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 127,035,141.44
57 1-Mar-14 - - - 127,035,141.44 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 127,035,141.44
58 1-Apr-14 - - - 127,035,141.44 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 127,035,141.44
59 1-May-14 - - - 127,035,141.44 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 127,035,141.44
60 1-Jun-14 - - - 127,035,141.44 - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2,824,064,721.59
894,743,036.31 268,422,910.89 626,320,125.42 3,822,759,527.19 838,423,394.64
Developer's
NPV 1,373,893,201.92
Interest Rates Nominal values 21.00% 25.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 90.00% 72.87%
% change 0.00% 19.05% 42.86% 90.48% 138.10% 185.71% 233.33% 280.95% 328.57% 247.00%
NPV values 2,016,431,142.81 1,674,153,519.09 1,322,373,040.68 804,527,930.46 454,467,261.79 211,723,298.60 39,753,127.40 (84,287,470.30) (175,108,401.93) -
% change in NPV 0.00% -16.97% -34.42% -60.10% -77.46% -89.50% -98.03% -104.18% -108.68% -100.00%
Capital Growth Nominal values 25.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% -20.00% -40.00% -60.00% -80.00% -99.00% NA
% change 0.00% -20.00% -60.00% -100.00% -180.00% -260.00% -340.00% -420.00% -496.00% NA
NPV values 2,016,431,142.81 1,849,315,972.04 1,578,235,749.15 1,377,845,323.00 1,133,589,901.93 1,024,508,523.77 986,177,420.64 977,624,977.04 977,024,553.23 -
% change in NPV 0.00% -8.29% -21.73% -31.67% -43.78% -49.19% -51.09% -51.52% -51.55% -100.00%
Mean Monthly Wage Nominal values 52,628.47 60,000.00 70,000.00 80,000.00 90,000.00 100,000.00 110,000.00 120,000.00 130,000.00 ∞
% change 0.00% 14.01% 33.01% 52.01% 71.01% 90.01% 109.01% 128.01% 147.01% ∞
NPV values 2,016,431,142.81 2,005,832,961.31 1,991,455,776.79 1,977,078,592.28 1,962,701,407.76 1,948,324,223.25 1,933,947,038.73 1,919,569,854.21 1,905,192,669.70 -
% change in NPV 0.00% -0.53% -1.24% -1.95% -2.66% -3.38% -4.09% -4.80% -5.52% -100.00%
Average Room Rates Nominal values 57,755.56 55,000.00 50,000.00 45,000.00 35,000.00 25,000.00 15,000.00 5,000.00 - NA
% change 0.00% -4.77% -13.43% -22.09% -39.40% -56.71% -74.03% -91.34% -100.00% (∞)
NPV values 2,016,431,142.81 1,944,701,651.37 1,814,547,332.23 1,684,393,013.08 1,424,084,374.79 1,163,775,736.50 903,467,098.21 643,158,459.92 613,963,481.69 -
% change in NPV 0.00% -3.56% -10.01% -16.47% -29.38% -42.29% -55.19% -68.10% -69.55% -100.00%
Power Generation
Costs (Diesel Price) Nominal values 6,000,000.00 9,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 15,000,000.00 18,000,000.00 21,000,000.00 24,000,000.00 27,000,000.00 30,000,000.00 ∞
% change 0.00% 50.00% 100.00% 150.00% 200.00% 250.00% 300.00% 350.00% 400.00% ∞
NPV values 2,016,431,142.81 1,956,526,207.33 1,896,621,271.84 1,836,716,336.36 1,776,811,400.88 1,716,906,465.39 1,657,001,529.91 1,597,096,594.42 1,537,191,658.94 -
% change in NPV 0.00% -2.97% -5.94% -8.91% -11.88% -14.85% -17.83% -20.80% -23.77% -100.00%
NOTES
From the above (see charts in the appendix), the NPV is most sensitive to interest rate changes (inverse) followed, in descending order, by changes in room rates (direct), capital growth rates (direct), power generation costs (inverse) and
monthly wage rates (inverse).
Capital growth rate % changes below -100% are theoretically not possible (because capital values cannot be negative), hence the lowest % change value of -99% used above
CASH FLOW ANALYSIS FOR PROPOSED HOTEL AT LEKKI SCHEME 1 CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT, LAGOS, NIGERIA
Post-Contract Costs
Architect 10,314,432.51 644,652.03 644,652.03 644,652.03 644,652.03 644,652.03 644,652.03 644,652.03 644,652.03
Structural Engr 5,386,818.57 336,676.16 336,676.16 336,676.16 336,676.16 336,676.16 336,676.16 336,676.16 336,676.16
Mech-Elec Engr 7,172,864.15 448,304.01 448,304.01 448,304.01 448,304.01 448,304.01 448,304.01 448,304.01 448,304.01
QS 5,386,818.57 336,676.16 336,676.16 336,676.16 336,676.16 336,676.16 336,676.16 336,676.16 336,676.16
Project Mgr 3,497,091.14 218,568.20 218,568.20 218,568.20 218,568.20 218,568.20 218,568.20 218,568.20 218,568.20
Substructure
Setting Out
Piling 42,092,533.41 21,046,266.70 18,941,640.03
Pile Caps 7,428,094.13 3,714,047.07 3,342,642.36
Tie Beams 17,029,389.30 8,514,694.65 7,663,225.18
Filling 7,568,617.47 3,784,308.73 3,405,877.86
Raft slab 13,245,080.57 6,622,540.28 5,960,286.25
Frames & Upper floors 147,892,408.80 73,946,204.40 44,367,722.64 22,183,861.32 -
Staircases 9,661,645.51 4,830,822.76 2,898,493.65 1,449,246.83
Walls 45,718,613.83 9,143,722.77 18,287,445.53 9,143,722.77 6,857,792.07 -
Roof frame & Covering 3,955,347.58 - - 2,966,510.69 791,069.52 -
Doors & Ironmongery 19,599,273.97 - - - - 4,899,818.49 - - 9,799,636.99
Windows 25,937,288.35 - - - - 6,484,322.09 - 12,968,644.18
Finishings 65,957,649.29 - - - - - - 32,978,824.65 -
Mech Installations 157,092,428.90 - - - 39,273,107.23 - - 39,273,107.23 -
Elec Installations 42,941,933.31 - - - 10,735,483.33 - - 10,735,483.33 -
Fittings & Fixtures 20,168,401.03 - - - - 5,042,100.26 - 5,042,100.26 -
Painting & Decoration 11,188,096.34
External Works 40,669,643.71
Furniture/ Outfitting 75,308,787.20 - - - - - - - -
Preliminaries 33,908,482.19 8,477,120.55 8,477,120.55
Contingencies 20,000,000.00 1,250,000.00 1,250,000.00 1,250,000.00 1,250,000.00 1,250,000.00 1,250,000.00 1,250,000.00 1,250,000.00
Total Construc Cost 807,363,714.88 - - - - - 53,408,977.98 1,250,000.00 40,563,671.69 139,179,340.47 91,707,023.21 36,993,341.60 109,897,021.22 11,049,636.99
Overall Total Costs 894,743,036.31 4,000,000.00 18,592,350.00 14,000,000.00 14,311,172.84 4,217,773.65 55,893,854.54 3,234,876.56 42,548,548.25 141,164,217.03 93,691,899.77 38,978,218.16 111,881,897.78 13,034,513.54
Developer 1,200,000.00 5,577,705.00 4,200,000.00 4,293,351.85 1,265,332.09 16,768,156.36 970,462.97 12,764,564.48 42,349,265.11 28,107,569.93 11,693,465.45 33,564,569.33 3,910,354.06
FINANCED BY
Bank 2,800,000.00 13,014,645.00 9,800,000.00 10,017,820.99 2,952,441.55 39,125,698.18 2,264,413.59 29,783,983.78 98,814,951.92 65,584,329.84 27,284,752.71 78,317,328.45 9,124,159.48
Developer's Cumulatv 1,200,000.00 6,777,705.00 10,977,705.00 15,271,056.85 16,536,388.95 33,304,545.31 34,275,008.28 47,039,572.75 89,388,837.86 117,496,407.79 129,189,873.24 162,754,442.57 166,664,796.64
Bank Cumulative 2,800,000.00 15,814,645.00 25,614,645.00 35,632,465.99 38,584,907.54 77,710,605.72 79,975,019.31 109,759,003.09 208,573,955.01 274,158,284.85 301,443,037.56 379,760,366.00 388,884,525.49
Bank Compounded 2,800,000.00 15,859,478.23 25,913,418.10 36,346,161.31 39,880,572.79 79,644,833.43 83,184,509.56 114,300,432.71 214,945,548.05 283,971,557.58 315,803,225.32 399,177,153.25 414,692,884.53
Operational Revenue
Operational Costs
Operational Income - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Cumulative Income - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Payments - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Loan Balance 2,800,000.00 15,859,478.23 25,913,418.10 36,346,161.31 39,880,572.79 79,644,833.43 83,184,509.56 114,300,432.71 214,945,548.05 283,971,557.58 315,803,225.32 399,177,153.25 414,692,884.53
Base value 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00
LTV Ratio-Base 1.40% 7.93% 12.96% 18.17% 19.94% 39.82% 41.59% 57.15% 107.47% 141.99% 157.90% 199.59% 207.35%
Current value 1 204,000,000.00 222,592,350.00 236,592,350.00 250,903,522.84 255,121,296.49 311,015,151.03 314,250,027.59 356,798,575.84 497,962,792.87 591,654,692.64 630,632,910.80 742,514,808.58 755,549,322.12
LTV Ratio-Current1 1.37% 7.12% 10.95% 14.49% 15.63% 25.61% 26.47% 32.04% 43.16% 48.00% 50.08% 53.76% 54.89%
Current value 2 204,000,000.00 226,421,280.08 244,671,041.12 263,574,509.60 272,739,383.10 333,752,355.43 343,251,518.43 392,242,645.44 540,768,968.67 644,610,704.58 695,687,791.96 820,627,238.34 849,064,322.09
LTV Ratio-Current2 1.37% 7.00% 10.59% 13.79% 14.62% 23.86% 24.23% 29.14% 39.75% 44.05% 45.39% 48.64% 48.84%
DCF Analysis
CASH FLOW ANALYSIS FOR PROPOSED HOTEL AT PLOT 6, BLOCK 5 LEKKI SCHEME 1 CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT, LAGOS, NIGERIA - CONTD.
1-Jul-10 1-Aug-10 31-Aug-10 1-Oct-10 31-Oct-10 30-Nov-10 31-Dec-10 30-Jan-11 2-Mar-11 1-Apr-11 2-May-11 1-Jun-11 1-Jul-11 1-Aug-11 31-Aug-11 1-Oct-11
- - - - - - - - - - -
- 2,104,626.67
- 371,404.71
- 851,469.46
- 378,430.87
- 662,254.03
- - - - 7,394,620.44 - - - - - - -
- 483,082.28
- - - - - 2,285,930.69 - - - - - -
- - - - - 197,767.38 - - - - - -
- - 3,919,854.79 - - - - - 979,963.70
- 5,187,457.67 - - - - - - 1,296,864.42 - -
16,489,412.32 - 13,191,529.86 - - - - - - 3,297,882.46 - -
- 39,273,107.23 - 31,418,485.78 - - - - - - 7,854,621.45 -
- 10,735,483.33 - 8,588,386.66 - - - - - - 2,147,096.67 -
5,042,100.26 - 4,033,680.21 - - - - - - - 1,008,420.05 -
8,391,072.26 2,237,619.27 559,404.82
10,167,410.93 20,334,821.86 8,133,928.74 2,033,482.19
- - - 18,827,196.80 37,654,393.60 15,061,757.44 - - - - - - 3,765,439.36
8,477,120.55 8,477,120.55 - - - - - - -
1,250,000.00 1,250,000.00 1,250,000.00 1,250,000.00 1,250,000.00 1,250,000.00 1,250,000.00 1,250,000.00 - - - -
31,258,633.13 56,446,048.22 26,763,250.60 78,642,552.42 77,831,657.99 26,929,384.25 1,250,000.00 1,250,000.00 - 4,594,746.88 12,549,506.68 - 5,798,921.55 - - -
33,243,509.69 58,430,924.78 28,748,127.16 80,627,428.98 79,816,534.55 28,914,260.81 3,234,876.56 3,234,876.56 - 4,594,746.88 12,549,506.68 - 5,798,921.55 - - -
9,973,052.91 17,529,277.43 8,624,438.15 24,188,228.70 23,944,960.36 8,674,278.24 970,462.97 970,462.97 - 1,378,424.06 3,764,852.00 - 1,739,676.46 - - -
23,270,456.78 40,901,647.35 20,123,689.01 56,439,200.29 55,871,574.18 20,239,982.57 2,264,413.59 2,264,413.59 - 3,216,322.82 8,784,654.67 - 4,059,245.08 - - -
176,637,849.54 194,167,126.98 202,791,565.13 226,979,793.82 250,924,754.18 259,599,032.43 260,569,495.40 261,539,958.36 261,539,958.36 262,918,382.43 266,683,234.43 266,683,234.43 268,422,910.89 268,422,910.89 268,422,910.89 268,422,910.89
412,154,982.27 453,056,629.61 473,180,318.63 529,619,518.91 585,491,093.10 605,731,075.66 607,995,489.26 610,259,902.85 610,259,902.85 613,476,225.66 622,260,880.34 622,260,880.34 626,320,125.42 626,320,125.42 626,320,125.42 626,320,125.42
444,603,348.94 492,623,926.32 520,635,444.51 585,410,990.69 650,656,088.25 681,314,290.07 694,487,817.98 707,872,278.69 725,456,754.94 730,001,179.26 729,898,884.03 710,722,480.07 674,722,638.88 634,087,127.91 592,800,966.51 540,565,920.42
6,277,305.00 12,554,610.00 25,109,220.00 37,663,830.00 62,773,050.00 62,773,050.00 62,773,050.00 75,327,660.00 75,327,660.00
12,428,925.00 2,428,925.00 4,857,850.00 7,286,775.00 12,144,625.00 12,144,625.00 12,144,625.00 14,573,550.00 14,573,550.00
- - - - - - - (6,151,620.00) 10,125,685.00 20,251,370.00 30,377,055.00 50,628,425.00 50,628,425.00 50,628,425.00 60,754,110.00 60,754,110.00
- - - - - - - (6,151,620.00) 3,974,065.00 24,225,435.00 54,602,490.00 105,230,915.00 155,859,340.00 206,487,765.00 267,241,875.00 327,995,985.00
- - - - - - - (6,151,620.00) 10,125,685.00 20,251,370.00 30,377,055.00 50,628,425.00 50,628,425.00 50,628,425.00 60,754,110.00 60,754,110.00
444,603,348.94 492,623,926.32 520,635,444.51 585,410,990.69 650,656,088.25 681,314,290.07 694,487,817.98 714,023,898.69 715,331,069.94 709,749,809.26 699,521,829.03 660,094,055.07 624,094,213.88 583,458,702.91 532,046,856.51 479,811,810.42
200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00
222.30% 246.31% 260.32% 292.71% 325.33% 340.66% 347.24% 357.01% 357.67% 354.87% 349.76% 330.05% 312.05% 291.73% 266.02% 239.91%
788,792,831.81 847,223,756.59 875,971,883.75 956,599,312.73 1,036,415,847.28 1,065,330,108.09 1,068,564,984.65 1,071,799,861.21 1,071,799,861.21 1,076,394,608.09 1,088,944,114.77 1,088,944,114.77 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31
56.37% 58.15% 59.44% 61.20% 62.78% 63.95% 64.99% 66.62% 66.74% 65.94% 64.24% 60.62% 57.01% 53.30% 48.60% 43.83%
898,244,145.14 973,534,452.43 1,020,555,105.83 1,120,337,604.17 1,221,182,052.23 1,273,017,002.74 1,300,145,472.93 1,327,783,124.57 1,352,704,638.06 1,382,688,656.92 1,421,190,213.58 1,447,864,909.49 1,480,839,191.38 1,508,633,454.77 1,536,949,396.05 1,565,796,806.74
49.50% 50.60% 51.01% 52.25% 53.28% 53.52% 53.42% 53.78% 52.88% 51.33% 49.22% 45.59% 42.14% 38.67% 34.62% 30.64%
CASH FLOW ANALYSIS FOR PROPOSED HOTEL AT PLOT 6, BLOCK 5 LEKKI SCHEME 1 CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT, LAGOS, NIGERIA - CONTD.
29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
31-Oct-11 1-Dec-11 31-Dec-11 31-Jan-12 1-Mar-12 31-Mar-12 1-May-12 31-May-12 1-Jul-12 31-Jul-12 31-Aug-12 30-Sep-12 30-Oct-12 30-Nov-12 30-Dec-12
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
268,422,910.89 268,422,910.89 268,422,910.89 268,422,910.89 268,422,910.89 268,422,910.89 268,422,910.89 268,422,910.89
626,320,125.42 626,320,125.42 626,320,125.42 626,320,125.42 626,320,125.42 626,320,125.42 626,320,125.42 626,320,125.42
487,494,493.69 433,573,294.29 368,500,899.64 302,386,574.41 212,580,439.87 121,336,341.37 16,800,265.89 - - - - - - - -
75,327,660.00 87,882,270.00 87,882,270.00 115,502,412.00 115,502,412.00 129,940,213.50 129,940,213.50 129,940,213.50 129,940,213.50 137,159,114.25 137,159,114.25 137,159,114.25 137,159,114.25 137,159,114.25 137,159,114.25
14,573,550.00 17,002,475.00 17,002,475.00 22,346,110.00 22,346,110.00 25,139,373.75 25,139,373.75 25,139,373.75 25,139,373.75 27,932,637.50 27,932,637.50 27,932,637.50 27,932,637.50 27,932,637.50 27,932,637.50
60,754,110.00 70,879,795.00 70,879,795.00 93,156,302.00 93,156,302.00 104,800,839.75 104,800,839.75 104,800,839.75 104,800,839.75 109,226,476.75 109,226,476.75 109,226,476.75 109,226,476.75 109,226,476.75 109,226,476.75
388,750,095.00 459,629,890.00 530,509,685.00 623,665,987.00 716,822,289.00 821,623,128.75 926,423,968.50 1,031,224,808.25 1,136,025,648.00 1,245,252,124.75 1,354,478,601.50 1,463,705,078.25 1,572,931,555.00 1,682,158,031.75 1,791,384,508.50
60,754,110.00 70,879,795.00 70,879,795.00 93,156,302.00 93,156,302.00 104,800,839.75 16,800,265.89 - - - - - - - -
426,740,383.69 362,693,499.29 297,621,104.64 209,230,272.41 119,424,137.87 16,535,501.62 - - - - - - - - -
200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00
213.37% 181.35% 148.81% 104.62% 59.71% 8.27% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31
38.98% 33.13% 27.19% 19.11% 10.91% 1.51% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1,595,185,662.13 1,625,126,124.74 1,655,628,547.84 1,686,703,478.99 1,718,361,663.77 1,750,614,049.41 1,783,471,788.63 1,816,946,243.47 1,851,048,989.23 1,885,791,818.46 1,921,186,745.06 1,957,246,008.43 1,993,982,077.67 2,031,407,655.93 2,069,535,684.79
26.75% 22.32% 17.98% 12.40% 6.95% 0.94% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
CASH FLOW ANALYSIS FOR PROPOSED HOTEL AT PLOT 6, BLOCK 5 LEKKI SCHEME 1 CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT, LAGOS, NIGERIA - CONTD.
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58
30-Jan-13 1-Mar-13 1-Apr-13 1-May-13 1-Jun-13 1-Jul-13 31-Jul-13 31-Aug-13 30-Sep-13 31-Oct-13 30-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 30-Jan-14 1-Mar-14 1-Apr-14
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
146,104,273.88 146,104,273.88 146,104,273.88 146,104,273.88 146,104,273.88 146,104,273.88 146,104,273.88 146,104,273.88 146,104,273.88 146,104,273.88 146,104,273.88 146,104,273.88 159,522,013.31 159,522,013.31 159,522,013.31
29,754,331.25 29,754,331.25 29,754,331.25 29,754,331.25 29,754,331.25 29,754,331.25 29,754,331.25 29,754,331.25 29,754,331.25 29,754,331.25 29,754,331.25 29,754,331.25 32,486,871.88 32,486,871.88 32,486,871.88
116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 127,035,141.44 127,035,141.44 127,035,141.44
1,907,734,451.13 2,024,084,393.75 2,140,434,336.38 2,256,784,279.00 2,373,134,221.63 2,489,484,164.25 2,605,834,106.88 2,722,184,049.50 2,838,533,992.13 2,954,883,934.75 3,071,233,877.38 3,187,583,820.00 3,314,618,961.44 3,441,654,102.88 3,568,689,244.31
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2,108,379,348.74 2,147,952,079.71 2,188,267,561.77 2,229,339,735.79 2,271,182,804.34 2,313,811,236.53 2,357,239,773.07 2,401,483,431.33 2,446,557,510.53 2,492,477,597.08 2,539,259,569.91 2,586,919,605.99 2,635,474,185.93 2,684,940,099.64 2,735,334,452.21
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
CASH FLOW ANALYSIS - CONCLUDED
59 60
15,471,648.76 -
8,080,227.86 -
10,759,296.22 -
8,080,227.86 -
2,622,818.36 -
2,014,727.43 -
8,592,350.00 -
- -
- -
10,314,432.51 -
5,386,818.57 -
7,172,864.15 -
5,386,818.57 -
3,497,091.14 -
- -
- -
42,092,533.41 -
7,428,094.13 -
17,029,389.30 -
7,568,617.47 -
13,245,080.57 -
147,892,408.80 -
9,661,645.51 -
45,718,613.83 -
3,955,347.58 -
19,599,273.97 -
25,937,288.35 -
65,957,649.29 -
157,092,428.90 -
42,941,933.31 -
20,168,401.03 -
11,188,096.34 -
40,669,643.71 -
75,308,787.20 -
33,908,482.19 -
20,000,000.00 -
807,363,714.88 -
894,743,036.31 -
Cumulative Total
894,743,036.31
(Check)
- -
159,522,013.31 159,522,013.31
32,486,871.88 32,486,871.88
127,035,141.44 127,035,141.44
3,695,724,385.75 3,822,759,527.19
- -
- -
200,000,000.00 200,000,000.00
0.00% 0.00%
1,094,743,036.31 1,094,743,036.31
0.00% 0.00%
2,786,674,669.74 2,838,978,505.42
0.00% 0.00%
Developer's Cflow (DCF) (201,200,000.00) (5,577,705.00) (4,200,000.00) (4,293,351.85) (1,265,332.09) (16,768,156.36) (970,462.97) (12,764,564.48) (42,349,265.11) (28,107,569.93) (11,693,465.45) (33,564,569.33) (3,910,354.06)
Developer's NPV 1,373,893,201.92
Developer's IRR 90.57%
(9,973,052.91) (17,529,277.43) (8,624,438.15) (24,188,228.70) (23,944,960.36) (8,674,278.24) (970,462.97) (970,462.97) - (1,378,424.06) (3,764,852.00) - (1,739,676.46) - - -
- - - - - - 88,000,573.86 104,800,839.75 104,800,839.75 109,226,476.75 109,226,476.75 109,226,476.75 109,226,476.75 109,226,476.75 109,226,476.75
116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 116,349,942.63 127,035,141.44 127,035,141.44 127,035,141.44
127,035,141.44 2,824,064,721.59
CONSTRUCTION COST SUMMARY FOR PROPOSED HOTEL AT LEKKI SCHEME 1 CENTRAL BUSINESS
DISTRICT, LAGOS, NIGERIA
1 Substructure N
Setting Out
Piling 42,092,533.41
Pile Caps 7,428,094.13
Tie Beams 17,029,389.30
Filling 7,568,617.47
Raft slab 13,245,080.57
2 Frames & Upper floors 147,892,408.80
3 Staircases 9,661,645.51
4 Walls 45,718,613.83
5 Roof frame & Covering 3,955,347.58
6 Doors & Ironmongery 19,599,273.97
7 Windows 25,937,288.35
8 Finishings 65,957,649.29
9 Mech Installations 157,092,428.90
10 Elec Installations 42,941,933.31
11 Fittings & Fixtures 20,168,401.03
12 Painting & Decoration 11,188,096.34
13 External Works 40,669,643.71
14 Furniture/ Outfitting 75,308,787.20
15 Preliminaries 33,908,482.19
16 Contingencies 20,000,000.00
DAILY RATES
Rate (N) No. Total (N) Rate (N)/M2 Area (M2) Total (N)
Standard room 46,000.00 26 1,196,000.00 Function room 1 2,300.00 108.2 248,860.00
Single room suite 69,000.00 15 1,035,000.00 Function room 2 2,300.00 70.8 162,840.00
2 bedroom suite 92,000.00 4 368,000.00 Function room 3 2,300.00 74.4 171,120.00
Average room rate 57,755.56 2,599,000.00 Banquet hall 2,300.00 253.5 583,050.00
1,165,870.00
Allow for bar 100,000.00 Allow for laundry (included in room package) -
Allow for restaurant 300,000.00
400,000.00
MONTHLY RATES
Salaries Schedule
Bar/ Restaurant (F & B) Gym/ S Pool Admin, Accounts, Banquet and Marketing
Life guard/ Pool Total
Personnel Waiters Barmen F & B Supervisor Drivers Business centre Admin/ Marketing Accounts Night Auditor IT Manager Hotel Manager Secretary
attendant/ Gym
No. 4 2 1 3 10 2 4 2 1 1 1 1 32
Wage rate 46,000.00 46,000.00 80,500.00 57,500.00 57,500.00 40,250.00 86,250.00 69,000.00 57,500.00 92,000.00 138,000.00 51,750.00
Total wage 184,000.00 92,000.00 80,500.00 172,500.00 575,000.00 80,500.00 345,000.00 138,000.00 57,500.00 92,000.00 138,000.00 51,750.00 2,006,750.00
Consumables - Food, drinks, stationery, laundry & body care consumables, etc Maintenance of facility - replacement of bulbs, locks, fittings, fixtures, cleaning, etc
Power - Cost of running and maintaining standby generators Communication - Phone bills, satellite TV, broadband internet access, etc
Vehicles/ Equip - Maintenance and monthly amortization in lieu of purchase Marketing - Adverts, brochures, etc
Allow for 6 saloon cars, 4 buses, 25 computers, printers, projectors, etc 1,000,000.00 Allow for adverts 1,000,000.00
Estimated Total Construction Cost (ETC) = 807,363,714.88 Estimated Total Construction Cost (ETC) = 807,363,714.88
350.00%
300.00%
Ratios
250.00%
LTV Ratio-
200.00% Base
150.00%
100.00%
50.00%
0.00%
22-Feb-08 6-Jul-09 18-Nov-10 1-Apr-12 14-Aug-13 27-Dec-14
Dates
Proposed Hotel at Lekki CBD, Lagos, Nigeria - Cash Flow Profiles
3,350,000,000.00
2,850,000,000.00
Value (N)
2,350,000,000.00
Monthly Draws
1,850,000,000.00 From Developer
From Bank
Operational
1,350,000,000.00 Income
Payments
850,000,000.00
350,000,000.00
(150,000,000.00)
18-Dec-08 2-May-10 14-Sep-11 26-Jan-13 10-Jun-14 23-Oct-15
Dates
Proposed Hotel at Lekki CBD, Lagos, Nigeria - Sensitivity Analysis - Average
Room Rates vs NPV
0.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
-20.00%
% change
-40.00%
-60.00%
-80.00%
-100.00%
-120.00%
Proposed Hotel at Lekki CBD, Lagos, Nigeria - Sensitivity Analysis - Capital
Growth vs NPV
0.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
-100.00%
% change
-200.00%
-300.00%
-400.00%
-500.00%
-600.00%
Proposed Hotel at Lekki CBD, Lagos, Nigeria - Sensitivity Analysis - Interest
Rate vs NPV
400.00%
300.00%
% change
200.00%
100.00%
0.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
-100.00%
-200.00%
Proposed Hotel at Lekki CBD, Lagos, Nigeria - Sensitivity Analysis - Mean
Monthly Wage vs NPV
160.00%
140.00%
% change
120.00%
100.00%
80.00%
60.00%
40.00%
20.00%
0.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
-20.00%
Proposed Hotel at Lekki CBD, Lagos, Nigeria - Sensitivity Analysis - Power
Generation Costs vs NPV
450.00%
400.00%
350.00%
% change
300.00%
250.00%
200.00%
150.00%
100.00%
50.00%
0.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
-50.00%