Nama : Tri Felbi Rayenra

Nim : 19134085
Matkul : Peramalan bisnis
Prodi : Manajemen Perdagangan Data Penjualan TV
45
40
Data Penjualan TV 12 bulan 35

Penjualan (unit)
Periode Sales Aktual 30
Bulan
(t) (Y) 25
20
Januari 1 30
15
Pebruari 2 32 10
5
Maret 3 30
0
April 4 39 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Periode (bulan)
Mei 5 33
Juni 6 34
Juli 7 34
Agustus 8 38
September 9 36
Oktober 10 39
Nopember 11 30
Desember 12 36

Kasus: Penjualan TV
Metode : Exponential Smoothin @ 0.5

Historical Data Analisis kesalahan peramalan

Actual Sales Absolute Square

Month Period (t) Forecast Error
(Y) Error Error

January 1 30 30 0.00 0.00 0.00

February 2 32 30.00 2.00 2.00 4.00
March 3 30 31.00 -1.00 1.00 1.00
April 4 39 30.50 8.50 8.50 72.25
May 5 33 34.75 -1.75 1.75 3.06
June 6 34 33.88 0.13 0.13 0.02
July 7 34 33.94 0.06 0.06 0.00
August 8 38 33.97 4.03 4.03 16.25
September 9 36 35.98 0.02 0.02 0.00
October 10 39 35.99 3.01 3.01 9.05
November 11 30 37.50 -7.50 7.50 56.19
December 12 36 33.75 2.25 2.25 5.07

Period 13 34.87 2.52 13.91

MAD MSE

Kasus: Penjualan TV
Metode: Exponential Smoothin @= 0.4

Historical Data Analisis kesalaham peramalan

Actual Sales Absolute Square
Month Period (t) Forecast Error
(Y) Error Error
January 1 30 30 0.00 0.00 0.00
February 2 32 30.00 2.00 2.00 4.00
March 3 30 30.80 -0.80 0.80 0.64
April 4 39 30.48 8.52 8.52 72.59
May 5 33 33.89 -0.89 0.89 0.79
June 6 34 33.53 0.47 0.47 0.22
July 7 34 33.72 0.28 0.28 0.08
August 8 38 33.83 4.17 4.17 17.37
September 9 36 35.50 0.50 0.50 0.25
October 10 39 35.70 3.30 3.30 10.89
November 11 30 37.02 -7.02 7.02 49.28
December 12 36 34.21 1.79 1.79 3.20

13 2.48 13.28
Period 34.93
MAD MSE

Jadi, alfa yang terbaik adalah 0,4 Karena MAD, MSE, MAPE nya lebih kecil
ualan TV

7 8 9 10 11 12
ode (bulan)

Percentage
Error

0.00
6.25%
3.33%
21.79%
5.30%
0.37%
0.18%
10.61%
0.04%
 7.71%
24.99%
6.26%
7.24%
MAPE

Percentage
Error
0.00
6.25%
2.67%
21.85%
2.69%
1.37%
0.82%
10.97%
1.39%
8.46%
23.40%
4.97%
7.07%

MAPE
Data penjualan produk 15 minggu terakhir

Periode Sales
(minggu) (unit) Sales (unit)
1 246
265
2 256
3 255 260
4 248
5 263 255
6 254
7 256 250

8 258
245
9 249
10 257 240
11 259
12 243 235
13 255
14 251 230
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1
15 253

Data Penjualan Produk 15 minggu terakhir

Metode Exponential Smoothing @= 0.5

Analisis kesalahan peramalan

Periode Absolute
Sales (unit) Forecasting Error
(minggu) Error
1 246 246 0.00 0.00
2 256 246.00 10.00 10.00
3 255 251.00 4.00 4.00
4 248 253.00 -5.00 5.00
5 263 250.50 12.50 12.50
6 254 256.75 -2.75 2.75
7 256 255.38 0.63 0.63
8 258 255.69 2.31 2.31
9 249 256.84 -7.84 7.84
10 257 252.92 4.08 4.08
11 259 254.96 4.04 4.04
12 243 256.98 -13.98 13.98
13 255 249.99 5.01 5.01
 14 251 252.50 -1.50 1.50
15 253 251.75 1.25 1.25
Period 16 252.37 4.99
MAD

Data Penjualan Produk 15 minggu terakhir

Metode Exponential Smoothing @= 0.3

Analisis kesalahan peramalan

Periode Absolute
Sales (unit) Forecasting Error
(minggu) Error
1 246 246 0.00 0.00
2 256 246.00 10.00 10.00
3 255 249.00 6.00 6.00
4 248 250.80 -2.80 2.80
5 263 249.96 13.04 13.04
6 254 253.87 0.13 0.13
7 256 253.91 2.09 2.09
8 258 254.54 3.46 3.46
9 249 255.58 -6.58 6.58
10 257 253.60 3.40 3.40
11 259 254.62 4.38 4.38
12 243 255.94 -12.94 12.94
13 255 252.05 2.95 2.95
14 251 252.94 -1.94 1.94
15 253 252.36 0.64 0.64
Period 16 252.55 4.69
MAD

Jadi, alfa yang terbaik adalah 0,3 karena MAD, MSE, MAPE nya lebih kecil
ales (unit)

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Percentag
Square Error
e Error
0.00 0.00%
100.00 3.91%
16.00 1.57%
25.00 2.02%
156.25 4.75%
7.56 1.08%
0.39 0.24%
5.35 0.90%
61.52 3.15%
16.63 1.59%
16.31 1.56%
195.45 5.75%
25.10 1.96%
 2.24 0.60%
1.57 0.50%
41.96 1.97%
MSE MAPE

Percentag
Square Error
e Error
0.00 0.00%
100.00 3.91%
36.00 2.35%
7.84 1.13%
170.04 4.96%
0.02 0.05%
4.37 0.82%
11.99 1.34%
43.25 2.64%
11.54 1.32%
19.16 1.69%
167.33 5.32%
8.67 1.15%
3.76 0.77%
0.41 0.25%
38.96 1.85%
MSE MAPE
 Sales
Week
(unit)
1 200
Sales (unit)
2 245 350

3 258
300
4 256
250
5 215
6 295 200
7 254
8 278 150
9 254
10 215 100

11 245
50
12 217
13 259 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
14 245
15 244
16 268
17 214
18 268
19 235
20 216

Data Penjualan Produk 20 minggu terakhir

Metode: Exponential Smoothing @= 0.5

Sales Forecastin Absolute Square

Week Error
(unit) g error Error
1 200 200 0.00 0 0.00
2 245 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
3 258 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
4 256 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
5 215 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
6 295 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
7 254 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
8 278 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
 9 254 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
10 215 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
11 245 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
12 217 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
13 259 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
14 245 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
15 244 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
16 268 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
17 214 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
18 268 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
19 235 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
20 216 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Periode 21 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
MAD MSE

Data Penjualan Produk 20 minggu terakhir

Metode: Exponential Smoothing @= 0.3

Sales Forecastin Absolute Square

Week Error
(unit) g error Error

1 200 200 0.00 0 0.00

2 245 200.00 45.00 45.00 2025.00
3 258 213.50 44.50 44.50 1980.25
4 256 226.85 29.15 29.15 849.72
5 215 235.60 -20.60 20.60 424.15
6 295 229.42 65.58 65.58 4301.20
7 254 249.09 4.91 4.91 24.09
8 278 250.56 27.44 27.44 752.73
9 254 258.79 -4.79 4.79 22.99
10 215 257.36 -42.36 42.36 1794.06
11 245 244.65 0.35 0.35 0.12
12 217 244.75 -27.75 27.75 770.32
13 259 236.43 22.57 22.57 509.48
14 245 243.20 1.80 1.80 3.24
15 244 243.74 0.26 0.26 0.07
16 268 243.82 24.18 24.18 584.77
17 214 251.07 -37.07 37.07 1374.37
18 268 239.95 28.05 28.05 786.76
19 235 248.37 -13.37 13.37 178.64
 20 216 244.36 -28.36 28.36 804.06
Periode 21 235.85 23.40 859.30
MAD MSE

Jadi, alfa yang terbaik adalah 0,3 karena MAD, MSE, MAPE nya lebih kecil
ales (unit)

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Persentage
Error
0.00%
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
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 #VALUE!
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MAPE

Persentage
Error

0.00%
18.37%
17.25%
11.39%
9.58%
22.23%
1.93%
9.87%
1.89%
19.70%
0.14%
12.79%
8.71%
0.73%
0.11%
9.02%
17.32%
10.47%
5.69%
 13.13%
9.52%
MAPE