Name: ___________________________________ Date: ________________________ Period: __________

Probability with M&Ms

Objective:

 The objective of this activity is to demonstrate the use of probability by using M&Ms.

Introduction:

Probability (from the Latin probare to prove, or to test) is a number between zero and one that shows
how likely a certain event is. Usually, probability is expressed as a ratio: the number of experimental results
that would produce the event divided by the number of experimental results considered possible. Thus,
probability of drawing the ten of clubs from an ordinary deck of cards is one in fifty-two (1:52), or one fifty-
second.
Sampling is that part of statistical practice concerned with the selection of individual observations
intended to yield some knowledge about a population of concern, especially for the purposes of statistical
inference.
M&Ms plain chocolate candies come in six colors: blue, brown, green, orange, red, and yellow. M&M
Mars Corporation makes 40 tons plain chocolate candies per day. In this activity you will use your sample,
your group’s sample, and your class’s data to determine the probability of each color manufactured by M&M
Mars each day.

Procedure:
Before you receive your sample of M&Ms, answer the following questions.
1. Predict which color will occur most in your sample. Why did you predict this color?

2. Predict which color will occur least in your sample. Why did you predict this color?

3. Predict how many M&Ms are in your sample.

DO NOT EAT ANY OF YOUR M&MS!!!

Perform the following procedure to predict the number of each color of M&Ms in your sample WITHOUT
looking:
 Without looking, draw one candy from your sample.
 Record its color in Table 1: Hypothesis – Predicted Data.
 Return the candy to the sample and shake the sample to mix the candies together.
 Repeat this procedure 29 more times (30 total).
 Table 1: Hypothesis – Predicted Data
Probability
Tallies Total Tallies
Ratio Percentage
Blue
Brown
Green
Orange
Red
Yellow
Total

4. Based on the probabilities you just calculated for each color:

 Which color will occur most in your sample?
 Which color will occur least in your sample?

5. Count your M&Ms. Record the total number of M&Ms in your sample, the number of each color of
M&Ms in your sample, and the probability of selecting each color in Table 2: Actual Sample Data.
Actual Sample Data
Probability
Actual Number
Ratio Percentage
Blue
Brown
Green
Orange
Red
Yellow
Total

6. Which color occurs most often in your sample? Did you predict the color correctly in question 1?

7. Which color occurs least often in your sample? Did you predict the color correctly in question 2?

8. How can you explain any difference between your predictions and the actual data collected?
9. Statistical data are often displayed graphically. Using a graph rather than simply presenting data in a
table or chart makes it easier to study relationships in the data. Use the graph on the last page of this
packet to graph your data. Use color!!!

***Once you have made your graph, let me know. THEN you may eat your M&Ms.

10. Compare your graph with the graphs of the other members of your lab group.
 In what ways are they alike?
 In what ways are they different?
11. On the basis of your sample, do you think you can accurately predict the number of each color of candy
in a one pound bag of M&Ms? Why or why not?

12. Combine the date from your sample with the data of the other members of your lab group. Enter the
group totals for each color of M&Ms in Table 3: Group Data. Use the data to compare the number of
each color with the total and complete the probability columns of the table.
Table 3: Group Data
Probability
Group Numbers
Fraction Decimal Percentage
Blue
Brown
Green
Orange
Red
Yellow
Total

13. Use the group data and probabilities and the information below to predict the number of each color of
M&M one would expect to find in a one pound bag of M&Ms.
 Each M&M weights approximately 0.8 grams.
 There are 16 ounces (oz) in one pound (lb)
 There are 28.35 grams in an ounce.
a. Calculate the number of M&Ms in a one pound bag of M&Ms. SHOW YOUR WORK!
 b. Using the probabilities you calculated in Table 3 and the number of M&Ms in a one pound bag from
question 13a, determine the number of each color in a one pound bag of M&Ms. Record your
answers below.
Blue: Brown Green:
Orange: Red: Yellow:

14. Describe the procedure you used to answer 13b.

15. Write your group data on the board in order to collect class data. Record class data in Table 4: Class
Data.
Table 4: Class Data
Probability
Class Numbers
Fraction Decimal Percentage
Blue
Brown
Green
Orange
Red
Yellow
Total

16. Using the probabilities you calculated in Table 4 and the number of M&Ms in a one pound bag from
question 13a, determine the number of each color in a one pound bag of M&Ms. Record your answers
below.
Blue: Brown Green:
Orange: Red: Yellow:

17. How do these totals compare with your groups totals? Which totals are a more accurate representation of
how many of each color are present in a one pound bag of M&Ms? Explain using the term ‘sample size’
in your answer.
18. Use the class data from Table 4 to predict how many of each color M&M Mars produces each day.
Remember, Mars makes 40 tons of M&Ms every day! There are 2,000 pounds in one ton. SHOW
YOUR WORK!

Blue: Brown Green:

Orange: Red: Yellow:
 M&M Probability: Quantity vs Color

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15

14

13

12

11

10

Blue Brown Green Orange Red Yellow