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Sustainable Earnings Growth: Snapshot Value of Stock Based On
Sustainable Earnings Growth: Snapshot Value of Stock Based On
Company Earnings
Britannia
Sector FMCG
Stock Price# 3483
No of shares outstanding 24 2390 Distance Covered 46%
Market Cap 40,368.27 Distance Left 12%
Promoter Shareholding 50.74% 4222
Growth
Business
9000 Summary ZZ Sustainable Earnings Growth
PAT PAT EPS
8000
800 70
7000 4922
700 60
6000 600 50
5000 500
40
4000 400
Sustainable Earnings Growth 30
3000 300
200 20
2000
100 10
1000
0 0
0
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-07
Jan-10
Jan-13
Jan-16
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-16
Jan-10
Jan-15
Sales Trend PAT & EPS Trend
160
4.00 60%
140
3.50
50%
120
3.00
100 40%
2.50
2.00 80 30%
1.50 60
DU Pont Analysis 20% Book Value Trend
1.00 40
10%
0.50
20
0.00 0%
CY-4 CY-3 CY-2 CY-1 0 CY
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-08
Jan-13
Jan-16
Qualatative parameters
6
7
10
11
3
4
4
Criteria Goal Actual Description
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS
Margin of Safety
10% 10
9% 9
6% 6
5% 5
4% 3
4% 2
4% 4
3% 3
3% 3
1% 0.50
1% 1.00
ANALYSIS 13% 12
5% 4
2% 2
2% 2
4% 4
LYSIS 23% 16
8% 4
2% 2
4% 4
2% 1
4% 3
3% 2
AMETERS 10% 8
3% 3
2% 1
2% 2
3% 2
y 4% 2
4% 2
PE PB OTHERS Gross Profit Net Profit Inventory/Sale Receivables/
Margin Margin s Sales
Pledged
Salary/PAT Promoter Promoter FII DII
Holding Holding
0.0 50.7% 0.0% 27.6% 0.0%
Current
Current Assets/Current Leverage Debt/PAT ROE ROCE ROA
Cash/Assets
Liabilities
3% 100% 2.2 0.3 44% 39% 20%
1% 107% 1.8 0.0 44% 44% 24%
CFO/Current CFO/Total
CFO/Sales CFO/Assets Liabilty Debt FCF/CFO CAPEX/FCF
Promoter
EPS BVPS CFO FCF Share Capital Networth
Holding
24.0% 11.9% 29.3% 25.1% 0.1% 12.0%
38.7% 30.3% 28.9% 29.6% -0.1% 0.1% 30.4%
Company Future Growth RoE
5 Yr. Conser 5 Yr.
Bank Not Bank ● ● Current
CAGR vative Avg.
Current Data Year Ending CY CY-1 CY-2 CY-3 CY-4 CY-5 CAGR
CMP 3483 PE Ratio 44.20 42.46 28.26 27.53 36.85
EPS 66.64 EPS 62.44 51.90 30.84 19.57 15.63 12.16 39%
DPS 20.00 DPS 20.00 16.00 12.00 8.51 8.50 6.50 25%
BVPS 141.95 PB Ratio 19.44 21.33 12.18 10.04 13.23
ROE 44% BVPS 141.9 103.3 71.5 53.6 43.5 37.8 30%
Earnings Yeild 1.91% Payout Ratio 32.03% 30.83% 38.91% 43.47% 54.37%
Dividend Yeild 0.57%
Projections Historical 0 1 2 3 4 5
Bond Yeild 9.00% EPS/BV 66.6 80.0 96.0 115.1 138.2 165.8
Average Data DPS 20.00 31.92 38.31 45.97 55.16 66.20
ROE 5 Yr. 43.6%
Payout 39.92% EPS/BV after 5 years 166
Avg P/E Ratio 35.86 Bank Interest 1 Yr 279
Avg P/B Ratio 15.25 Sum Of dividend paid 258
Value of Stock Projected Price 5946
Discount Rate 8% Final Price 6204
P E/B Valuation 2390
Historical Earnings Growth 4222 Projections Growth Year 0 1 2 3 4 5
Sustainable Earnings Growth 4922 BVPS 141.9 179.5 226.9 286.8 362.6 458.5
2 EPS 62.4 78.9 99.8 126.2 159.5 201.7
2 DPS 24.93 31.51 39.84 50.37 63.68 80.51
1 Earnings after 5 years 201.66
Sum Of dividend paid 290.84
Projected Price 7231.48
Total Gain 7522.32 Return on stock when existing ROE growth rate is extended
CY-4 CY-3 CY-2 CY-1 CY
NPM 4% 4% 6% 9% 9%
Asset Turnover 2.97 3.32 3.38 2.99 2.60
Equity Multiplier 3.26 2.66 2.19 2.00 1.82
ROE 36% 37% 43% 52% 45%
DuPont analysis is an extended analysis of a company's return on equity. It concludes that a company can earn a high return on equity if:
Score 6.00
COPY PASTE DATA FROM ANY FINANCIAL WEBSITE: ONLY FOR THE FIELDS MARKED GREEN BELOW
COMPANY NAME Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12
CONSOLIDATED
Inventory 214.94 301.53 253.63 268.34 311.20 382.28
Debtors 28.61 46.32 49.61 39.49 57.26 52.14
Cash & Bank Balance 48.65 43.77 40.80 23.36 28.75 30.94
Current Assets 426.32 600.71 580.29 570.07 644.96 808.26
Current Liabilities 341.16 370.31 437.54 526.32 622.62 741.48
Working Capital (check) 85.16 230.40 142.75 43.75 22.34 66.78
COPY PASTE DATA FROM ANNUAL REPORTS: ONLY FOR THE FIELDS MARKED ORANGE BELOW
Operating Expenses/Capex Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12
Raw Materials 1434.57 1540.64 1930.00 2184.97 2782.23 3184.54
Employee cost 72.53 85.41 90.01 99.94 119.93 145.87
Advertising and sales promotion 330.49 386.78 464.16 558.28 614.60 725.00
Freight, transport and distribution
Royalty
Power and fuel 24.17 22.78 21.47 22.38 29.55 40.10
Miscellaneous expenses 62.08 79.20 139.58 129.90 103.68 156.08
R&D Cost 24.80
Capex 65.37 66.64 45.15 68.52 190.74
COMPANY NAME Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12
Total Income 2235.43 2638.17 3196.8 3454.29 4272.44 5032.72
Sales 2199.29 2584.1 3112.21 3403.46 4223.52 4974.19
Raw Materials 1434.57 1540.64 1930 2184.97 2782.23 3184.54
Gross Profit 764.72 1043.46 1182.21 1218.49 1441.29 1789.65
EBITDA 152.45 270.95 281.87 166.41 280.4 337.76
Depreciation & Amortisation 25.27 29.08 33.46 37.54 44.59 47.32
EBIT 127.18 241.87 248.41 128.87 235.81 290.44
Interest 8.9 9.73 16.01 8.21 37.75 38.07
PBT 118.28 232.14 232.4 120.66 198.06 252.37
Tax 10.63 41.14 52 4.15 52.77 65.63
PAT 107.65 191 180.4 116.51 145.29 186.74
Dividends 35.83 43 95.56 59.73 77.64 101.53
Market Cap 2,982.09 3,138.81 3,611.95 3,927.66 4,497.68 6,880.61
Current Market Cap 40,368
Current EPS 66.6
Equity 23.89 23.89 23.89 23.89 23.89 23.89
Reserves & Surplus 590.93 731.92 800.65 372.36 427.41 496.15
Networth 614.82 755.81 824.54 396.25 451.3 520.04
Secured Loans
Unsecured Loans
Borrowings 4.78 106.1 25.17 429.61 431.44 434.5
Other Liabilities 341.16 370.31 437.54 526.32 622.62 741.48
Current Asset 426.32 600.71 580.29 570.07 644.96 808.26
Current Liabilities 341.16 370.31 437.54 526.32 622.62 741.48
Total Assets 960.76 1232.22 1287.25 1352.18 1505.36 1696.02
Net Fixed Assets 198.36 240.99 277.84 281.5 303.7 379.09
Capital Work in Progress 16.03 9.69 6.02 9.97 11.7 79.73
Working Capital 85.16 230.4 142.75 43.75 22.34 66.78
Debtors 28.61 46.32 49.61 39.49 57.26 52.14
Inventory 214.94 301.53 253.63 268.34 311.2 382.28
Cash 48.65 43.77 40.8 23.36 28.75 30.94
Net Other Assets
Invested Capital 619.6 861.91 849.71 825.86 882.74 954.54
Capital Employed 619.6 861.91 849.71 825.86 882.74 954.54
Total Liability 345.94 476.41 462.71 955.93 1054.06 1175.98
Total Assets 960.76 1232.22 1287.25 1352.18 1505.36 1696.02
ANGE BELOW
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
3528.60 3822.31 4342.32 4629.45
143.50 172.45 190.65 209.21
825.68 903.47 1000.54 1070.08
META
Number of shares 12.00
Face Value 2.00
Current Price 3,364.00
Market Capitalization 40,368.27
Quarters
Report Date Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14
Sales 1,653.05 1,634.23 1,817.41 1,852.33
Expenses 1,508.41 1,476.45 1,620.96 1,670.21
Other Income 11.42 19.57 178.44 20.52
Depreciation 16.40 24.55 25.10 25.52
Interest 0.38 0.28 0.35 0.32
Profit before tax 139.28 152.52 349.44 176.80
Tax 47.75 44.71 96.40 56.28
Net profit 91.53 107.81 253.04 120.52
Operating Profit 144.64 157.78 196.45 182.12
BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10
Equity Share Capital 23.89 23.89 23.89 23.89
Reserves 590.93 731.92 800.65 372.36
Borrowings 4.78 106.10 25.17 429.61
Other Liabilities 341.16 370.31 437.54 526.32
Total 960.76 1,232.22 1,287.25 1,352.18
Net Block 198.36 240.99 277.84 281.50
Capital Work in Progress 16.03 9.69 6.02 9.97
Investments 320.05 380.83 423.10 490.64
Other Assets 426.32 600.71 580.29 570.07
Total 960.76 1,232.22 1,287.25 1,352.18
Receivables 28.61 46.32 49.61 39.49
Inventory 214.94 301.53 253.63 268.34
Cash & Bank 48.65 43.77 40.80 23.36
No. of Equity Shares 23,890,163.00 23,890,163.00 23,890,163.00 23,890,163.00
New Bonus Shares
Face value 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10
Cash from Operating Activity 87.00 63.13 246.78 235.29
Cash from Investing Activity 59.05 -130.31 12.27 -109.69
Cash from Financing Activity -49.07 53.08 -145.77 -184.05
Net Cash Flow 96.98 -14.10 113.28 -58.45
DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 11.95 11.95 11.95 11.95
PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET
Scorecard
Comparison with industry peers 5% 4
Increase in production capacity and sales volume 2% 2
Conversion of sales growth into profits 2% 2
Creation of value for shareholders from the profits retained 4% 4
Product diversification 3% 3
Govt. influence 2% 1
Labor Problems 2% 2
Pricing Power 3% 2
There should not be any information questioning the integrity of promoters & directors
Salary being paid to potential successors should be in line with their experience
promoter should not have a history of seeking increase in remuneration when the profits of the company declined in past
The company should have shown good project execution skills with cost and time overruns.Exclude capacity increase by mergers &
acquisitions.
Higher the better
The company should be either a pure play (only one business segment) or related products. Pure play model ensures that the
management is specialized in what they are doing. Entirely different unrelated products/services are a strict NO. An investor
should rather buy stocks of different companies if she wants such diversification.
No cap on profit returns or pricing of the product.No compulsion to supply to certain clients.
That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above (like high
ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad for an
investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained earnings must first
go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to maintain current operations,
the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that
consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.