DEPARTMENT OF MAHTEMATICS AND STATISTICS

UNIVERSITY OF JAFFNA
LEVEL 1S (2018/2019)
Statistics for Computing I – CSC105S3
Tutorial – 01

01. Assume 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent events with 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.2 and 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.3. Let 𝐶 denote the
event that none of the events 𝐴 and 𝐵 occurs, and let 𝐷 be the event that exactly one of the
events 𝐴 and 𝐵 occurs. Find 𝑃(𝐶), 𝑃(𝐷), 𝑃(𝐴/𝐷), 𝑃(𝐴/𝐷𝑐 ).

02. Let us assume that England wins Cricket world cup is independent of France wins football
world cup. Show that the event France not wins the Football world cup is independent of the
event that England not wins the Cricket world cup.

03. Suppose that in the Jaffna district 25% of the crimes occur during the day and 80% of the
crimes occur in the city. If only 10% of the crimes occur outside the city during the day, what
percent occur inside the city during the night? What percent occur outside the city during the
night?

04. Officials at the suicide prevention center know that 2% of all people who phone their hotline
actually attempt suicide. A psychologist has devised a quick and simple verbal test to help
identify those callers who will actually attempt suicide. She found that,
 80% of the people who will attempt suicide have a positive score on this test;
 But only 5% of those who will not attempt suicide have a positive score on this test.

If you get a positive identification from a caller on this test, what is the probability that he
would actually attempt suicide?

05. A president, treasurer and secretary all different are to be chosen from a club consisting of 10
people. How many different choices of officers are possible if
a) There are no restrictions;
b) 𝐴 and 𝐵 will not serve together;
c) 𝐶 and 𝐷 will serve together or not at all;
d) 𝐸 must be an officer;
e) 𝐹 will serve only if he is president.

06. A health club has a number of facilities which include a gym and a sauna. Andrew and his
wife, Heidi, visit the health club together on Tuesday evenings.
On any visit, Andrew uses either the gym or the sauna or both, but no other facilities. The
probability that he uses the gym, 𝑃 𝐺 is 0.70. The probability that he uses the sauna, 𝑃 𝑆 is
0.55. The probability that he uses both the gym and the sauna is 0.25.

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 a) Calculate the probability that on a particular visit:
(i). he does not use the gym;
(ii). he uses the gym but not the sauna;
(iii). he uses either the gym or the sauna but not both.

b) Assuming that Andrew’s decision on what facility to use is independent from visit to
visit, calculate the probability that, during a month in which there are exactly four
Tuesdays, he does not use the gym.
c) The probability that Heidi uses the gym when Andrew uses the gym is 0.6, but is only 0.1
when he does not use the gym. Calculate the probability that, on a particular visit, Heidi
uses the gym.
d) On any visit, Heidi uses exactly one of the club’s facilities. The probability that she uses
the sauna is 0.35. Calculate the probability that, on a particular visit, she uses a facility
other than the gym or the sauna.

07. In a country, three political parties 𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶 contested for the general election. It is known
that 30% of the electors are members of party 𝐴, 40% of electors are members of party 𝐵,
20% of electors are members of the party C and 10% are not members of any party. It is also
known that at the election 80% of members of party 𝐴, 60% of members of party 𝐵 and 90%
of members of party 𝐶 voted, while those with no membership of any party did note vote.
a) If an elector is chosen at random find the probability that he did not vote.
b) If an elector is chosen at random and it is found that he did not vote in the election, find
the probability that he is a member of party 𝐵.
c) What are the probabilities of each of the above parties wining?

08. The events 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , 𝐸3 , … form a mutually exclusive and exhaustive partition of the sample
space 𝑆. The event 𝐴 in 𝑆 has probability 𝑃(𝐴) > 0.
a) Write down the 𝐿𝑎𝑤 𝑜𝑓 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦, which expresses 𝑃(𝐴) in terms of
conditional and unconditional probability involving the events 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , 𝐸3 , ….
b) Given the 𝐿𝑎𝑤 𝑜𝑓 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦, prove 𝐵𝑎𝑦𝑒𝑠’ 𝑇ℎ𝑒𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑚 in the form
𝑃 𝐴 𝐸𝑗 𝑃(𝐸𝑗 )
𝑃 𝐸𝑗 𝐴 = 𝑗 = 1,2,3, …
𝑖 𝑃 𝐴 𝐸𝑖 𝑃(𝐸𝑖 )
It may be assumed from experience that 1 in 1000 fetuses have the genetic disorder trisomy
21 (“Down’s Syndrome”). A screening test carried out early in pregnancy classifies a fetus
as either having trisomy 21 (a positive result) or not having trisomy 21(a negative result).
The test gives a positive result for 90% of fetuses that have trisomy 21 but also gives a
positive result for 5% of fetuses that do not have trisomy 21.
c) What proportion of all fetuses have a positive test result for trisomy 21?
d) What proportion of fetuses that have a positive test result do not have trisomy 21?

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09. Ten boxes are numbered 1 to 10 and 𝑖 𝑡ℎ box contains 𝑖 red balls and 100 − 𝑖 blue balls
𝑖 = 1, 2, , … , 10. A box is selected at random and a ball is selected at random from it. Find
the probability that a red ball is selected. Given that a red ball has been selected, what is the
probability that it come from box 10? If three balls are drawn at random, without
replacement, from 10, find the probability that at least two of them are red.

10.
a) A diagnostic test for a disease gives a positive result with probability 0.98 for people who
have the disease, and a negative result with probability 0.99 for people who do not have
the disease. Suppose 3% of the population have the disease.
(i). A person is selected at random from the population and given the test. If the result
is positive, what is the probability that this person has the disease?
(ii). Suppose a person, initially selected at random from the population, is given the test
once and the result is positive. This person is then given the test, independently, a
second time and the result is again positive. What is the probability that this person
has the disease?
b) Two football teams 𝑀 and 𝐶 each have one game left to play (not against each other) in
the season. If 𝑀 wins and 𝐶 does not win, or if 𝑀 draws and 𝐶 loses, then 𝑀 wins the
championship. Otherwise 𝐶 wins the championship. The probabilities that 𝑀 wins, draws
1 1 1
or loses the last game are 2 , 6 , and 3, respectively. The probabilities that 𝐶 wins, draws or
2 1 1
loses the last game are 3 , 6 , and 6, respectively.
(i). What is the probability that 𝑀 wins the championship?
(ii). What is the probability that 𝐶 has drawn the last game given that 𝑀 has won the
championship?

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