The Hang Seng University of Hong Kong

AMS1303 Probability and Statistics

Chapter 2 Exercise: Probability Theory

1. Employees of a local university have been classified according to gender and job type.

Gender
Job Male Female
Faculty 110 10
Salaried Staff 30 50
Hourly Staff 60 40

(a) If an employee is selected at random, what is the probability that the employee is male
and salaried staff?
(b) If an employee is selected at random, what is the probability that the employee is a
member of the faculty?

2. At a college, 70 percent of the students are women and 50 percent of the students receive a
grade of C. Twenty five percent of the students are neither female nor C students. Find the
probability that a student is a female and a C student? (Hint: Draw Venn diagram.)

3. Two percent of the customers of a store buy cigars. Half of the customers who buy cigars buy
beer. Twenty five percent who buy beer buy cigars. Determine the probability that a customer
buys beer.

4. Four employees who work as drive-through attendees at a local fast food restaurant are being
evaluated. As a part of quality improvement initiative and employee evaluation these workers
were observed over three days. One of the statistics collected is the proportion of time
employee forgets to include a napkin in the bag. Related information is given in the table:

Worker % of Dinners Packed % Forgot Napkin

Joe 25% 6%
Jan 20% 2%
Cheryl 20% 10%
Clay 35% 4%

You just purchased a dinner and found that there is no napkin in your bag. What is the
probability that Cheryl had prepared your order?

5. Joe is considering pursuing an MBA degree. He has applied to two different universities. The
acceptance rate for applicants with similar qualifications is 25% for University A and 40%
for University B. What is the probability that Joe will be accepted at least by one of the two
universities?

6. In a report on high school graduation, it was stated that 85% of high school students
graduate. Suppose 3 high school students are randomly selected from different schools. What
is the probability that none of them graduate?
7. A survey is made in a neighborhood of 80 voters. 65 were Democrats and 15 were
Republicans. Of the Democrats, 35 are women, while 5 of the Republicans are women. If
one subject from the group is randomly selected, find the probability that a male Republican
is selected.

8. In a local survey, 100 citizens indicated their opinions on a revision to a local land use plan.
Of the 62 favorable responses, there were 40 males. Of the 38 unfavorable responses, there
were 15 males. If one citizen is randomly selected, find the probability that a female or has
an unfavorable opinion citizen is selected.

9. In a recent survey in Hong Kong, 10% of the teenagers have an iPad and 52% have an
iPhone. Suppose 91% of the teenagers with an iPad also have an iPhone. What is the
probability that a teenager with an iPhone has an iPad?

10. A sample of 500 respondents was selected in a large metropolitan area to study consumer
behavior. Among the questions asked was “Do you enjoy shopping for clothing?”. Of 240
males, 136 answered yes. Of 260 females, 224 answered yes. Construct a contingency table
to evaluate the probabilities. What is the probability that a respondent chosen at random
(a) enjoys shopping for clothing?
(b) is a female and enjoys shopping for clothing?
(c) is a female or enjoys shopping for clothing?
(d) is a male or a female?

11. An experiment was conducted to study the choices made in mutual fund selection.
Undergraduate and MBA students were presented with different S&P500 Index funds that
were identical except for fees. Suppose 100 undergraduate students and 100 MBA students
were selected. Partial results are shown in the following table:

Student Group
Fund Undergraduate MBA
Highest-cost Fund 27 18
Not Highest-cost Fund 73 82

(a) Given that a student is an undergraduate, what is the probability that he or she selected
the highest-cost fund?
(b) Given that a student selected the highest-cost fund, what is the probability that he or
she is an undergraduate?
(c) Explain the difference for the results in (a) and (b)?
(d) Is the choice of fund affected by student group? Explain.

12. A standard deck of cards is being used to play a game. There are four suits (heart, diamonds,
clubs, and spades), each having 13 faces (ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, jack, queen, and king),
making a total of 52 cards. This complete deck is thoroughly mixed, and you will receive the
first 2 cards from the deck without replacement.
(a) What is the probability that both cards are queens?
(b) What is the probability that the first card is a 10 and the second card is a 5 or 6?
(c) If you were sampling with replacement, what would be the answer in (a)?
(d) In the game of blackjack, the picture cards (jack, queen, king) count as 10 points, and
the ace counts as either 1 or 11 points. All other cards are counted at their face value.
Blackjack is achieved if 2 cards total 21 points. What is the probability of getting
blackjack in this problem?
13. Olive Construction is determining whether they should submit a bid for a new shopping
center. In the past, Olive’s main competitor, Base Construction, has submitted bids 70% of
the time. If Base Construction does not bid on a job, the probability that Olive Construction
will get the job is 0.50. If Base Construction bids on a job, the probability that Olive
Construction will get the job is 0.25.
(a) If Olive Construction gets the job, what is the probability that Base Construction did not
bid?
(b) What is the probability that Olive Construction will get the job?

14. Let A and B be the events with P(A) =3/8, P(B) =1/2 and P(A  B) = 1/4. Find the following
probabilities.
(a) P(A  B)
(b) P( A ) and P( B  ) (Here, 𝐴′ = 𝐴̅ etc.)
(c) P( A  B  )
(d) P(A  B  )

15. In an electronic company, 75% of all new workers attend the training program. It is known
from past experience that the probability is 0.8 that a new worker who has attended the
company’s training program will meet his production quota, and that the corresponding
probability is 0.4 for a new worker who has not attended the company’s training program.
(a) What is the probability that a new worker will meet his production quota?
(b) Given that a new worker has met his production, what is the probability that he has
attended the company’s program?

16. The probability that an executive is promoted to a higher position is 5/8. If he is not
promoted, he will go on vacation with a probability of 5/6. However, if he is promoted, his
workload will become increase, in order to concentrate on his work, there is only a
probability of 1/3 that he will take a vacation.
(a) Find the probability that the executive will not go on a vacation.
(b) Suppose that he does not go on a vacation, find the probability that the executive have
been promoted.
(c) If the executive is promoted, what is the probability that he did not go on a vacation?

17. In certain city, 8% of the men aged 60 or above have diabetes but only 4% of the men aged
under-60 has the disease. If a man actually has diabetes, a doctor has a 90% of chance to
diagnose correctly. If a man does not have the disease, then the doctor has a 2% of chance to
diagnose incorrectly. 20% of the men in this city is 60 or above. Find the probability that
(a) a man aged 60 or above and diagnosed by the doctor as having diabetes.
(b) a man actually has the disease given that he was diagnosed by the doctor as having
diabetes.

18. On an icy day of a City, the probability that there will be a serious car accident occurred is
0.04. If the day is not icy, the probability of a serious car accident occurred is 0.01. In the
month of January, 25% of time is icy.
(a) Find the probability that 13th January is an icy day and there is a serious accident.
(b) Find the probability that there is a serious accident occurring on 13th January.
(c) Find the probability that 13th January is icy if there is a serious accident on the day.
19. A manufacturer produces x% of defective light bulbs on the average. Each item is inspected
before being put on the market. Items that are classified as good are put on the market and
those classified as defective are scrapped. In the past, the inspectors misclassify an item 5%
of the time. After inspecting all the light bulbs, it is found that 77% of items are classified as
good and put on the market.
(a) Find the percentage of light bulbs that are actually defective.
(b) A bulb is selected at random from those that are put on the market. Find the probability
that the item is actually good

20. Let A = { 0, 1, 2, 3, 4}, B = {0, 2, 5, 8} and C = {2, 3, 7, 8}. Find the following sets.
(a) A  B
(b) B  C
(c) A  B  C
(d) A  B  C

21. In a class of 40 students, 25 of them join the Mathematics Club, 20 join the Science Club
and 13 join both clubs. Find the number of students who join
(a) one or both of the clubs
(b) only one of the clubs
(c) neither of the clubs.

22. If A and B are mutually exclusive events such that P(A) = 0.2 and P(B) = 0.7, find
(a) P( A  B)
(b) P(A' )
(c) P( A'B)

23. It is given that P ( A  B ) = 0.3 and P( A  B' ) = 0.4

(a) Find P(A)
(b) If, in addition, P(B) = 0.45, find
(i) P( A  B)
(ii) P( A'B)

24. In a class of 40 students, 7 of them join the drama club, 11 join the choir and 3 join both. If a
student is selected at random from the class, find the probability that the student
(a) joins the drama club or the choir,
(b) joins the choir only.

25. In a company, 60% of the employees are female, 25% are general clerks and 20% are female
general clerks. If an employee of the company is selected at random, what is the probability
that the employee is
(a) a female or a general clerk?
(b) neither a female nor a general clerk?
(c) a female but not a general clerk?
Numerical Answers:

1. (a) 0.1 (b) 0.4

2. 0.45
3. 0.04
4. 0.3774
5. 0.55
6. 0.003375
7. 0.125
8. 0.6
9. 0.175
10. (a) 0.72 (b) 0.448 (c) 0.792 (d) 1
11. (a) 0.27
(b) 0.6
(c) The conditional events are reversed.
(d) 𝑃(highest-cost fun | undergraduate) = 0.27 ≠ 𝑃(highest-cost fund) = 0.225
The two events “student group” and “fund selected” are not independent.
12. (a) 0.0045 (b) 0.0121 (c) 0.0059 (d) 0.0483
13. (a) 0.4615 (b) 0.325
14. (a) 5/8 (b) 5/8; 1/2 (c) 3/4 (d) 1/8
15. (a) 0.7 (b) 0.8571
16. (a) 23/48 (b) 20/23 (c) 2/3
17. (a) 0.0181 (b) 0.6941
18. (a) 0.01 (b) 0.0175 (c) 0.5714
19. (a) 20% (b) 0.9870
20. (a) {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8} (b) {2, 8} (c) {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8} (d) {2}
21. (a) 32 (b) 19 (c) 8
22. (a) 0.9 (b) 0.8 (c) 0.7
23. (a) 0.7 (b)(i) 0.85 (b)(ii) 0.15
24. (a) 3/8 (b) 1/5
25. (a) 0.65 (b) 0.35 (c) 0.4