Name: _____________________

Probabilities
Mathematics Application and Interpretations SL/HL

1) Consider the sample space S = {copper, sodium, nitrogen, potassium, uranium, oxygen, zinc} and
the events
A = {copper, sodium, zinc},
B = {sodium, nitrogen, potassium},
C = {oxygen}.

List the elements of the sets corresponding to the following events:

(a) A ;
(b) A ∪ C;
(c) (A ∩ B ) ∪ C ;
(d) B ∩ C ;
(e) A ∩ B ∩ C;
(f) (A ∪ B ) ∩ (A ∩ C).

2) In a high school graduating class of 100 students, 54 studied mathematics, 69 studied history, and
35 studied both mathematics and history. If one of these students is selected at random, find the
probability that
(a) the student took mathematics or history;
(b) the student did not take either of these subjects;
(c) the student took history but not mathematics.

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3) A class in advanced physics is composed of 10 juniors, 30 seniors, and 10 graduate students. The
final grades show that 3 of the juniors, 10 of the seniors, and 5 of the graduate students received an
A for the course. If a student is chosen at random from this class and is found to have earned an A,
what is the probability that he or she is a senior?

4) In the senior year of a high school graduating class of 100 students, 42 studied mathematics, 68
studied psychology, 54 studied history, 22 studied both mathematics and history, 25 studied both
mathematics and psychology, 7 studied history but neither mathematics nor psychology, 10 studied
all three subjects, and 8 did not take any of the three. Randomly select a student from the class and
find the probabilities of the following events.
(a) A person enrolled in psychology takes all three subjects.
(b) A person not taking psychology is taking both history and mathematics.

5) The probability that the head of a household is home when a telemarketing representative calls is
0.4. Given that the head of the house is home, the probability that goods will be bought from the
company is 0.3. Find the probability that the head of the house is home and goods are bought from
the company.
6) In 1970, 11% of Americans completed four years of college; 43% of them were women. In 1990,
22% of Americans completed four years of college; 53% of them were women (Time, Jan. 19, 1996).
(a) Given that a person completed four years of college in 1970, what is the probability that the
person was a woman?
(b) What is the probability that a woman finished four years of college in 1990?
(c) What is the probability that a man had not finished college in 1990?

7) A large industrial firm uses three local motels to provide overnight accommodations for its clients.
From past experience it is known that 20% of the clients are assigned rooms at the Ramada Inn,
50% at the Sheraton, and 30% at the Lakeview Motor Lodge. If the plumbing is faulty in 5% of the
rooms at the Ramada Inn, in 4% of the rooms at the Sheraton, and in 8% of the rooms at the
Lakeview Motor Lodge, what is the probability that a client will be assigned a room with faulty
plumbing?
8) A producer of a certain type of electronic component ships to suppliers in lots of twenty. Suppose
that 60% of all such lots contain no defective components, 30% contain one defective component,
and 10% contain two defective components. A lot is picked, two components from the lot are
randomly selected and tested, and neither is defective.
(a) What is the probability that zero defective components exist in the lot?
(b) What is the probability that one defective exists in the lot?
(c) What is the probability that two defectives exist in the lot?

9) Mark wants to meet his friend Jeremy after School to ask him some questions about their
Chemistry homework. On a typical school afternoon, Jeremy either goes to the park for some
exercise or goes to the library to complete his homework.

Jeremy has previously told Mark that he goes to the park two out of every five afternoons each
school week.

If Jeremy goes to the park, the probability that Mark will meet Jeremy in the park is 0.2. If Jeremy
goes to the library, the probability that Mark will meet Jeremy in the library is 0.7.
These scenarios are represented on the tree diagram below.

a) Complete the tree diagram.[3]

b) Find the probability that Mark will meet Jeremy that afternoon.[3]
10) 100 students are asked what pets they like from a choice of cats, dogs and hamsters. The results
are as follows.

60 like cats
64 like dogs
61 like hamsters
34 like cats and dogs
46 like dogs and hamsters
43 like cats and hamsters
32 like cats, dogs and hamsters

a) Represent this information on a Venn diagram.[4]

b) Find the number of students who
i. like dogs only;
ii. like both dogs and cats but not hamsters;
iii. do not like pets.[6]
A student is randomly chosen from this group of 100 students.
a) Calculate the probability that this student likes only two kinds of pets.[2]
b) Calculate the probability that this student likes only dogs, given that this student only likes
one kind of pet.[2]
11) In a college lottery, there are two types of tickets: 'standard' tickets and 'lucky' tickets. Every
student is given one ticket at random. The total number of the standard tickets is four times
greater than the number of lucky tickets.
The probability of winning the lottery with a standard ticket is 1/100 and 1/40 for a lucky ticket.
The tree diagram below illustrates this.

a) Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen student will win the lottery.[2]
b) Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen student will get a lucky ticket and still lose
the lottery.[2]
c) Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen student, given they won the lottery, had a
standard ticket.[2]
12) Jennifer is about to take three exams in order: Mathematics, Chemistry and Biology. Based on what
she has learned and practiced, she estimates that the probabilities that she will pass Mathematics,
Chemistry and Biology exams are 0.8, 0.6 and 0.7, respectively. Assuming that the probability of
Jenifer being passing an exam is independent of the others, find the probability that
a) she will pass all three exams;[2]
b) she will pass only one of the exams;[2]
c) she will pass the last two exams given that she doesn't pass the first exam;[2]
d) she will pass at least one exam.[2]

13) In a regional city, two lawn companies fertilise lawns during the summer. Company A has 72% of
the market. Thirty per cent of the lawns fertilised by Company A could be rated as very healthy one
month after the service. Company B has the other 28% of the market. Twenty per cent of the lawns
fertilised by Company B could be rated as very healthy one month after the service. A lawn that has
been fertilised by one of these companies within the last month is selected randomly and is rated
as very healthy.
(a) what is the revised probability that Company A fertilised the lawn?
(b) What is the corresponding probability that Company B fertilised the lawn?
14) Of 250 employees of a company, a total of 130 are full-time employees. The remainder are part-
time employees. There are 150 males working for this company, 85 of whom are full-time
employees.
(a) What is the probability that an employee chosen at random
i. is a part-time employee?
ii. is female and a full-time employee?
iii. is a full-time employee, given that the employee is female?
iv. is a female, given that the employee is full-time?
(b) Are the events “employee chosen at random is female” and “employee chosen at random is
full-time” statistically independent?

15) Let P(A∪B) = 0.9, P(A) = 0.5 and P(B | A) = 0.4. Calculate P(B) and P(A | B). Are A and B
independent? Are A and B disjoint? Justify your answers.

16) Let P(A) = 0.2, P(A ∪ B) = 0.6, and suppose the events A and B are independent. Calculate P(B).
17) Let P(A) = 0.6, P(A | B) = 0.6 and P(A∪B) = 0.8. Calculate P(B) and P(A∩B). Are A and B
independent? Justify your answer.

18) A toy manufacturer buys pre-assembled robotic arms from three different suppliers 50% of the
total order comes from Supplier 1, 30% of the total order comes from Supplier 2, and the
remaining 20% from Supplier 3. Past data shows that the quality control standards of the three
suppliers are different. Two percent of the arms produced by Supplier 1 are defective, while
Suppliers 2 and 3 produce defective arms at the rates of 3% and 4% respectively. Let Si be the
event that a given arm comes from Supplier i, i = 1, 2, 3 and let D be the event that a given arm is
defective.
(a) Draw a tree diagram that models this situation.
(b) What proportion of the arms in the manufacturer’s inventory are non-defective?
(c) If an arm is found to be defective, what is the probability that it came from Supplier 1? Give
your answer to 4 decimal places.
(d) The company wants to increase the proportion of non-defective inventory to 98%. They decide
to target Supplier 3 and require them to improve their quality control and thus reduce the
proportion of defective arms that they deliver. What must Supplier 3 reduce its proportion of
defective production to in order to satisfy the client’s demand?
19) You are given the following probabilities involving events A and B:
P(B’ | A) = 0.4, P(B) = 2 × P(A), P(A ∪ B) = 0.6.
(a) Show that P(B | A) = 0.6. (1 mark)
(b) Show that P(A ∩ B) = 0.6 P(A). (1 marks)
(c) Calculate P(A). (3 marks)
(d) Calculate P(A | B). (1 mark)
(e) Are the events A and B independent? Justify your answer. (1 mark)

20) You are given the following probabilities involving events A and B:
P(B’ | A’) = 0.2, P(A) = 0.3, and P(B | A) = 0.4.
(a) Using a Venn diagram or otherwise, show that P(A ∪ B) = 0.86. (3 marks)
(b) Show that P(A ∩ B) = 0.12. (1 marks)
(c) Hence find P(B). (3 marks)
(d) Calculate P(A | B). (2 mark)
(e) Are the events A and B independent? Justify your answer. (1 mark)